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#101 Re: Human missions » Whats does NASAs Manned Mars Architecture Look Like Now? » 2006-12-19 13:23:35

My two cents:

I don’t know where GCNRevenger gets his information about the mental health of the Salyut cosmonauts – it contradicts some studies I’ve seen about crews on US naval vessels, installations and arctic expeditions – but anything where you have a 50/50 chance of being carried away in a stretcher upon your return cannot be good for you.  People who clamber spryly out of the capsule and walk around the landing site after > 6 months in space are the exceptions to the rule.  Since it has been proven that this can be done, we must assume that the health difficulties are related to more than just zero gravity.  If small space and high workload prohibit the crew from getting sufficient exercise, it really won’t matter if they have 1G artificial gravity all the way to Mars – they’re still going to be in no shape to conduct their mission.

I don't see why the FIRST mission has to throw in everything.

Why must be have deep drilling rigs, reusable ascent vehicles, multiple pressurized rovers, vast amounts of lab space, the nucleus of a base complex.........all on the very first manned mission?

Well, I sure say we should start trying as soon as possible.

I think that continual use of the same central base, starting as soon as possible and preferrably even before the first humans arrive, is the best way to begin exploring Mars.  It’s the only way to materially capitalize on the expenditures of previous missions.  That’s so important that I think mission segments and even crew positions on each of the first missions should be dedicated to setting up camp rather than running around the surface, even if it means trading science for ditch digging. 

If DRM-III is too small to do that, then it’s too small, too.  But that’s all right.

Personally, I think something the size of the Mars Direct Hab would be just fine as a people mover.   The problems come when trying to cram all of the equipment for an entire mission into one little sardine can with them.  As though everything had to arrive at once with a 3 year + mission duration. 

Not everything has to go on only one rocket, or even two, and we’d be crazy to try it that way.

If the Mars Direct hardware was sufficient to get the crew safely to Mars (unlikely, but just pretend for a moment…), keep them alive all by itself with some minimum of function for 2-3 years in the event of a mission failure, and get them back to Earth, it has done everything we should ask it to do.  As far as is practical, nothing else necessary to a successful mars mission should be sent onboard the Hab.  As far as is practical, everything else should come in its own car.

“As far as is practical” must include allowances for redundancy and robustness, including the ability to limp ahead without substantial portions of the various accompanying payloads, so in reality no stripped down people mover would be sufficient.  The Mars Direct Hab really is too small.  The hardware outlined in DRM-III, without the pretense that it is large enough to do anything beyond limp along by itself if need be, could serve as a crew transport in a larger mission to establish a permanent base.   

Mars Direct can't be all we send any more than DRM-III can.

#102 Re: Human missions » Fly to Mars » 2006-12-17 07:11:13

IMPROBABLE SENSATION? ALIVE STONES ON Mars!!!

The god has created a stone life on Mars, and it completely alters and masters a surface of Mars, has processed there all rocks and mountains, and creates an atmosphere... Years through one thousand there will be a heavenly spot, the continuous sea, sand and beaches and palm trees instead of apple-trees...

Photo http://universe.mybb.ru/viewtopic.php?id=7

Yes, the Mars Bunny!  That gave us days of fun.  It was revealed to be a scrap of fabric from the balloon package.  More important, it gave us information about the wind on Mars - information the probe did not have instruments to collect.

#103 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Fishsticks: RIP 2048? » 2006-12-16 08:28:06

Antarctic sea ice extent is increasing (hmm, don't see that fact often in the press, do you?).

The area covered by antarctic sea ice has shown a small (not statistically significant) increasing trend.
...
The extent of arctic ice in September, when extent is at its annual minimum, is decreasing at a rate of 7.7 percent per decade

Considering the degree of yearly variation in ice cover, it seems they are claiming that the minimum antarctic ice cover is remaining roughly constant while the arctic ice cover is clearly decreasing.  Interesting.  And no, you don't see that in the popular press.

If the rate of antarctic iceberg calving has gone up, then antarctic ice cover should have decreased given a constant rate of formation.  Either the reported rate of iceberg calving is in fact completely normal for the Antarctic, with ice shelf sections the size of Luxembourg heading north every year being just fine, or all of that extra ice is coming from somewhere.

#104 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Fishsticks: RIP 2048? » 2006-12-15 06:58:44

Antarctic sea ice extent is increasing (hmm, don't see that fact often in the press, do you?).

No, I don't.  In fact, you're the very first person I've seen claiming that. 

Do you have a source you can recommend for this information?

#105 Re: Human missions » Whats does NASAs Manned Mars Architecture Look Like Now? » 2006-12-14 21:43:58

GCNRevenger, that sounds quite reasonable.

I might still allow for the use of "small" vehicles like Mars Direct, but in the end it must be conceded: the Mars Direct mission architecture is too small to accomplish anything of importance by itself.  Its only virtue would be as one element of a single, larger and cohesive mission archetecture.  Deployed as Zubrin envisions it - as the entirety of the mission, and just one other-directed mission in an only coincidentally related series - it's useless.

We go big, or we don't go.  Mars Direct hardware could help with that, but Mars Direct ultimately will not.

#106 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Astrology affects driver safety » 2006-12-14 08:46:39

Your astrological zodiac sign corellates with your risk of traffic accidents.

It's been replicated, so it must be true.   roll

Actually, being an Aries, I can appreciate this.  Over the years, I've run off the road, hit other cars - one in a parking lot... I even hit a house once.  Why, I was in a near collision just yesterday.  I never figured I was fulfilling some cosmic destiny.  I just thought my driving stank.   This makes me feel much better.   8)

#107 Re: Terraformation » A comic about Mars » 2006-12-13 21:12:19

Our fictional Mars needs a standard of currency. Like you said, Iron ore is everywhere, so it’s too common to be valued. Limestone is valuable, but only as a consumable. So it wouldn’t make a very good coined currency. I guess I’m just emphasizing a portion of my original question. Could ores such as gold, silver, and/or copper be mined on mars? If so, would they be rare enough to be valued, yet still common enough to be circulated as money?

Again, thank you.

Gold is unusual in that it can be more common chemically pure than in a chemical compound, but most silver, gold and copper deposits are associated with area that were geologically active during ancient geologic periods.  Their source ores all tend to be deposited by magma and the aqueous solutions it drives before it underground, but that can happen under mountains or geysers just as easily as on top of a volcano.  Gold, silver, and copper will likely all be found in or near mountainous regions on Mars, just like earth.  Carbonate ores like malachite will be rare, but they're not usually important sources on Earth, either.

Honestly, I have no idea what martians might base their monetary system on.  It's been years since I've used a silver coin or even seen a gold one.  Heavy metals just aren't the basis of our economy any more, and I don't see why Martians would (or would not) go back to them.  It seems that everything I do nowadays is based on barter or debit card.

#108 Re: Human missions » Moonbase and Mass drivers etc etc » 2006-12-13 16:02:48

Do you know what a cycling orbit is?
It is an orbit that takes the ship from the vicintity of Earth to the vicintity of Mars, and the gravity of Mars bends the orbit path just enough to send the ship back to Earth, whose gravity bends it juist enough to send in back to Mars again and this cycle is repeated over and over again with very little or no propellent expended. A cycling spaceship doesn't require much in the way of rocket engines to maintain its cycling orbit. You could have lunar rock placed around the cycling ship as it cycles around in its orbit...

Mars Direct completely nixed that idea.  You still have issues with rendevous - AFTER accelerating to the speed these cruisers are already going at.  It makes it kinda redundant and we're only sending handfuls of people not shipfuls.

I wasn't aware that there was a limit to the number of people you could put on a cycler.

#109 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Fishsticks: RIP 2048? » 2006-12-13 15:31:03

See I don't get why the phytoplankton can't just move north if it likes the cold,

Swim, little phytoplankton, swim...

#110 Re: Human missions » Moonbase and Mass drivers etc etc » 2006-12-13 13:19:43

I can’t (believably) downplay the difficulties inherent in asteroid mining, but I think you’re understating the relative problems of obtaining material from the lunar surface.  They are such that obtaining the same material from asteroids is at least a competitive proposition.

Your own “who cares if it consumes more fuel if the fuel is free?” argument could be applied to any trip you like - from Earth, from the moon, or from an asteroid - so long as fuel is available at the point of departure.  Getting to an asteroid in the first place need not require any more (or less) fuel than getting to the moon – it all depends on the target.  So, comparing outbound delta-v lends no obvious advantage to either method.  And, while the rockets required for either approach will be large (I’ve never seen a sounding rocket with a 19+ MT payload), the vehicles required to reach and mine an asteroid need be no larger than those needed to reach and mine the moon if you send both in the same quantity.   

So, yes, if you can write off the fact that large vehicles are needed for travel to/from the moon, then I can write off the fact that the same size vehicle will be needed for asteroid mining, too.

I also take issue with your assertion that we can’t move an asteroid. 

Oh, we can’t move Vesta, or even Eros.  But we could come home with something the size of 2002 AA29.

An asteroid of this size, with a minor diameter of less than 60 m and a mass of less than 250000 MT, would have a gravitational acceleration of around 0.000002g (utterly negligible).  A minor axis rotation period of less than 7 hours would completely negate this, and anything faster would tend to spin loose regolith off of the asteroid.  Lashing to the asteroid with a few hundred meters of spectra line is not an incomprehensible feat (and it can be done without ever needing any other means of latching on), and is all that is necessary to deploy a low thrust engine.   The hydrogen/oxygen rocket fuel needed to spin-up the asteroid is determined by the change in angular momentum required.  The fuel required is only 300 kg of H2/LOX to crank it up to a 7 hour period from a dead stop.  With 10MT fuel or more, you could spin the asteroid clean for prospecting.  With a few times more fuel, you could spin it apart and see what’s inside (which is what I recommend for anything larger, BTW).  An equally efficient use of the same fuel is to bring the asteroid’s spin to a near stop on all axes so that solar power can be employed.

19 MT of fuel – your suggested lunar supply payload – can eliminate the whole “spin BAD BAD!” objection for asteroids of 300m minor diameter or larger. 

Once 24:7 solar is available for months at a time, there’s no reason to remain limited to chemical rocketry for propulsion.  Unfortunately, electric rocket propulsion with exotic fuels will not do the trick, either – the fuel needed to bring 2002 AA29 to Earth in less than a year exceeds the GTOW of a Saturn V rocket at the asteroid surface, even using relatively efficient engines.  Not that this isn’t equal to the mass you proposed launching from the moon over one year with 250 times the potential payoff, but it does move beyond the “just write off the fuel” regime.  You can’t write off the fuel if the fuel is the only thing you’re hauling.

To effectively move the rock, a means must be found to use the asteroid material for fuel, just as you proposed using lunar material for fuel.

This is where one might care about asteroid volatiles.  However, that would require actually hauling refining equipment out to the asteroid, and assumes that the asteroid of interest is volatile rich – even if what you’re really after is nickel-iron.  There’s a better way.

Time for some vaporware.  :twisted:

The weight (gravitational force, not mass) of 1000 MT of asteroid material in the asteroid’s gravitational field is only 20N.  If you can get it free, it doesn’t take much to get it clear of the asteroid.  And that can be spun, too.  Using an electric motor with a reel of rope, you can get that 1000 MT mass whirling at 100 m/s – at stresses within the capability of spectra rope – and throw it off of the asteroid.  Releasing that sling at the right angle will impart new rotation and a rearward motion of 40 cm/s.  160 just like it – two thirds of the mass of the entire asteroid – will give you enough velocity to get the lonely remaining chunk of asteroid into earth orbit.  But each of those outbound chunks also has double the velocity needed to reach earth orbit.  If you send two even larger chunks at a time, themselves connected by a smaller sling capable of 100 m/s, one of the chunks can be thrown off to decelerate the other into earth orbit.  In this way, half the mass of the asteroid can be sent to earth orbit 1000 MT at a time, instead of just the last 1000.  If the part reaching earth is the part with the sling, a recovery crew can re-orbit it the same way by flinging off another chunk.

As for actually getting purchase on the asteroid in zero-g, if you’ve got the 10 MT of spectra rope necessary for the larger sling, you’ve got enough to wind it around 2002 AA29 approximately 130 times.  Just bola the thing and tie yourself on. 

The whole process can be accomplished with outbound payloads no greater than 19 MT.  I’d guess about three to five per year per 1000 MT payload per year.

#111 Re: Human missions » Moonbase and Mass drivers etc etc » 2006-12-12 11:46:54

Then this business about asteroid mining:

  • -As said by others, the lack of suitable launch windows and longish travel times means that only a big expensive hauler could move enough mass to be worthwhile, reducing efficiency, increasing risk, and basically making the whole operation harder.

    -No gravity, which makes digging basically impossible. Without down force there is no good way to dig a hole or pull off good looking rocks from the surface. This also makes metal smelting essentially impractical and is hard on even medium-duration crews.

    -Spinning, most rocks have multi-axis spins, which means you can't orbit, hover, or deploy a tether from the surface without continuously burning rocket fuel to compensate. This make solar power pretty precarious too. Theres that physics thing again.

    -Overall, asteroid mining is overrated. The only real selling point they have is low Delta-V to get there and back compared to having to land on the Moon. But, if 85%+ of your descent/ascent propellant comes from the Moon (native oxygen) then this isn't such a big deal. The Moon is the place to be for digging materials in space.

These are not insurmountable problems, GCNRevenger.

- I conceed that big expensive haulers of some sort or another will be necessary. But if you want quick travel times for anything in space travel, all haulers are going to be big and/or expensive no matter what you're doing.  Asteroid mining is not special in this regard.

- I conceed that there will be essentially no gravity to speak of, especially if we're trying to mine an asteroid small enough to actually work with.  (Not every asteroid is the size of Vesta; nor do we want them to be.)  However, that only makes it harder if you're intending to scale it like Edmund Hillary.  Out of necessity, asteroid miners will hold the asteroid to them, not the other way around.

- Asteroids already spin, God bless 'em.  That means we needn't expend as much fuel to finish spinning them up.  Eliminating the last vestiges of all that pesky gravity with a little centrifugal force will doubtless assist with the necessary disassembly. 

- Low Delta-v is a selling point, but it's not the only one.  Another is their energy of position.  Asteroids can also be a ready and rich source of volatiles and other materials expected to be buried deep on the moon.  They're also potential sources of unprocessed rubble and tailings for bulk radiation shielding.  All available at a fuel and power expenditure equivalent to launching from the moon with a much smaller payload.

#112 Re: Terraformation » A comic about Mars » 2006-12-12 08:52:06

Second, Minerals.
I know that Mars is red because of the iron oxide. This shows the possibility of iron deposits witch could be mined. But what other minerals are (or possibly could be) there? Copper? Gold? The Mars rovers can only (literally) scratch the surface, so much about what is way down there is free game (artistically.) But, any popular theories would be helpful.

The current theory is that any element available in a naturally occurring ore on earth can be obtained from a naturally occurring ore on Mars.  However, because of Mars's geological history, some ores will be rarer or more common than on Earth. 

Iron ore, for example, will be everywhere.  Mars clearly underwent banded iron formation just like Earth (all the iron in its oceans precipitated out in less than a hundred million years, forming an iron rich layer of rock), but wasn't buried very deeply.  The iron content of the surface dust is relatively low grade, but still useable if nothing better is available, and high grade iron ore was literally lying around all over the surface where the Opportunity rover landed.  In certain locations on Mars, practically all you need to mine iron is a broom.  Certain industrially valuable salts are also lying around for the taking. 

You will likely be more interested in the minerals expected to be rare.  The current theory is that as the first Martian lakes evaporated and got more and more concentrated, they became acidic.  They probably wouldn't have eaten your boots off, but you would not have wanted to wade barefoot in one.  All of that acid destroyed some minerals in the soil which are now rare on Mars. 

Clays are destroyed by strong acids, and clays are now found only in the mountains of Mars where they escaped submersion in the acidic lakes and souring soil of the lowlands.  Clays are an important component of arable soil, and it may be worthwhile to go into those mountains and mine clay for agriculture.

Carbonates, like lime, are destroyed even by the weak acids that find their way into acid rain.  They did not survive the acid age of Mars, not even in the mountains.  No spectroscopic observations have ever confirmed the presence of carbonate deposits on the surface of Mars.  And carbonates are even more fundamental to agriculture than clays.  Many essential plant nutrients are most readily absorbed as carbonates, and they are practically the only source of some nutrients in soil agriculture.  Even algal and hydroponic agriculture requires carbonates.  Carbonates are so vital to agriculture that if they can't be obtained locally then they will have to be manufactured.  A limestone mine (or factory) on Mars would be something worth having.

#113 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Global Warming Extends the Orbital Lifetime of Space Junk » 2006-12-11 21:04:15

Global warming can thin the upper atmosphere, slowing orbital decay slightly.

It's a bit of a trade-off.  Satellites last a little longer in LEO, but so does space junk.

#114 Re: Planetary transportation » Thermoacoustic Cryogenic - Better, Cheaper, Slower » 2006-12-11 10:28:26

*bump*

There's a new method of thermoacoustic cooling being developed.  Check out the You-tube video of this water hammer heat pump.

It's not clear whether the thermal cycle involved is a Sterling Cycle or Malone Cycle acoustic analog, but what is clear is that heat is being transferred from the rotor body (and the reservoir/room it's in) to the exhaust.  The heat source is not friction.  This thermal cycle can be used for refrigeration as well as heating.

An equally important observation is that the use of liquid cavitation as a sound source is more efficient and produces far more acoustic power than piezo-electric sources.

I think it's got potential.

#115 Re: Youth Group / Educational Outreach » Neotraditionalists to Mars » 2006-12-11 10:17:21

Perhaps we should refer to Mars as the 9th continent to resonate with neotraditional thinking.

Hmm...   :twisted:

No, stop tempting me.  smile

I was more interested in groups like this one, or this one, or this one.  Neotraditionalism has plenty of potential without becoming faux-Amish.  It's primary value lies in the methodologies and materials it preserves, not the wildly variable belief systems that promote it.

#116 Re: Life support systems » Disease! » 2006-12-11 08:26:22

What you describe is called the crud and the incident happened about three years ago if I remember (RAF personel from the falklands had to go in to help run the base).

Technically, it's what Scientific American magazine describes, but yes, apparently I misread the article.  (It wasn't hard.  Darn Editors.  :? )A quick check with other sources reveals that, while McMurdo is having another outbreak this year, it is not nearly as bad as 2003.  However, my search did reveal another interesting phenomenon.

There's an outbreak recorded this year, 2006.  There was a major problem with an outbreak in 2003, and I found outbreaks recorded in 2000, 1997, and mention of a case in 1994.   

It might just be sampling error, but this is starting to look like a pattern.

Is this the "three year Crud?"

#117 Re: Human missions » Fly to Mars » 2006-12-10 08:55:00

Rich passengers can provide a source of revenue, but I doubt they will support Mars exploration.  Still, the idea of paying for our ticket is desirable.  I wonder if it is possible to transport enough passengers that their tickets could pay for the trip to Mars. 

If so, what would the ticket price and number of passengers need to be?

#119 Re: Life support systems » Disease! » 2006-12-08 21:05:28

It seems there's an outbreak of the common cold at McMurdo Station.  This is notable because of their lack of ability to control the spread of the disease.  Workload has been a major factor in promoting the spread of the disease - nobody has the time needed to lay up and heal properly, obey a quarantine or even use better hygiene.  And the infection rate is very high - better than half.  The common cold is a relatively minor ailment ninety-nine times out of a hundred, but it can kill under some circumstances, and can readily infect everyone in a closed environment. 

I worry that something similar, involving an otherwise innocuous illness that would not be vaccinated or quarantined for before the mission, could happen at a Mars Base.  If it were to lay low as much of the Mars base population as it has at McMurdo, the consequences could be disastrous.

#120 Re: Life support systems » A Better Solar Cell » 2006-12-08 20:50:14

Researchers have recently developed a multijunction photovoltaic cell with 40% efficiency.  That's double the efficiency of the best silicon solar cells, and about four times the average performance of silicon cells.  This is, of course, not the most efficient solar cell in existence, but it may soon be among the best currently available.  These cells are notable because they are relatively easy and practical to manufacture. 

The article in the link talks of only using these devices in concentrator arrays, but there's no physical limitation that would prevent them being used alone.  That's code for "so expensive that they're only cost competitive with a concentrator."  However, having a consistent manufacturing process can make them publicly available, and the increased price is unlikely to exceed the savings on interplanetary transportation for a smaller array.

This could become an important off-the shelf technology for space exploration.

#121 Re: Life support systems » It all started with Chevy Corvettes... » 2006-12-08 10:11:43

Well, it finally happened.

Company offers to lease designer space suits to space tourists.

I wonder - will fashion statements once again become a part of space travel?  This might be a good thing.

#122 Re: Human missions » Moonbase and Mass drivers etc etc » 2006-12-08 08:41:58

Asteroid mining is a pipe dream, and the show-stopper details are numerous and often simply ignored by proponents, intractable basic physics problems casually relegated to the future.

To what intractable basic physics problems and show stopper details are you referring?

#123 Re: Human missions » Moonbase and Mass drivers etc etc » 2006-12-08 08:37:05

And why would anyone want to live on a free-floating space colony?

Are you seriously asking that question on this site?

big_smile

GCNRevenger, I think you've got a good point about bringing down large payloads of any type from LEO to Earth.  They've got to be guided, not just shot out of a cannon.  But your argument starts to fall apart the further from Earth you get.

Solar rockets, for example, even with small mirror sizes, would have higher thrust than you're giving them credit for.  And I have no idea where you got the idea of one week on, three weeks off for their operation in cislunar space, unless you are rejecting the idea of gimbals along with mass drivers.

As for mass drivers, not using them for the last 6000 km of the transit still leaves you 380000km to play with.  If they have enough precision to hit the earth, they probably have enough to miss it, too. 

Using a mass driver to get loads up from the lunar surface can save a great deal of that fuel you recommend hauling back (and forth) from Earth, even allowing for the use of rocket powered craft to recover the payloads.  A mass driver load shot into space would have an orbital path just like anything else.  If you want to catch it, all you need to do is match its orbit.  Unmanned vehicles soaking in Earth orbit have troubles of their own, true, but eliminating the mass driver doesn't eliminate our reliance on them.

The mass driver might end up being the most reliable component of such a system.

As for how to actually build a mass driver, well, I reaffirm that your analysis is more correct the closer it gets to Earth.  Bringing all the parts up from Earth would not be cost competitive with simply continuing to use conventional rocketry.  To get away from that, we need to get manufacturing capacity on the moon.

#124 Re: Water on Mars » NASA says liquid water on Mars NOW! » 2006-12-07 11:15:06

Good. 

I admit I wasn't expecting liquid water, but water vapor outgassing in the last decade was the only explanation I could ever come up with for the sharp, crisp gaps in this micro-imager photo from Purgatory Dune at Meridiani.  That left a high albedo deposit behind, too, but you'll notice there's no evidence of flow as in the MSSS images.  I fully expected our first water well on Mars would be a gas well or an ice mine.

Liquid water on Mars.  I love it when Mars proves me wrong.   8)

#125 Re: Human missions » Fly to Mars » 2006-12-06 09:13:26

But who and where deals with space dirigibles? They that have already real apparatuses?... is AKS, but in them something not serious...

I agree: AKS is not serious.  They claim so much more than they can deliver that I do not believe them.  But JP Aerospace is serious about this, and is testing models and prototypes.  They are making reasonable progress.  General Orbital and others are also interested. 

I do not know that they can do it, but I think that it is possible.  This may be a good technology to explore and settle Mars.

ROCKET OF THE EXTERNAL COMBUSTION
...ejected through the nozzle with specific impulse 5000 - 700... It is possible to manage without the combustion in oxygen, and pulse a little will be lowered...

Is this number correct?  Is this an exhaust velocity or a specific impulse?  The numbers would be different for exhaust velocity than for specific impulse (Different measurements of the same thing).

External combustion engines (aerospike, etc.) are good for Earth, where a thick atmosphere confines the exhaust, but I don't see the advantage for outer space or for Mars.  Their main advantages are their excellent performance in an atmosphere, and their ability to handle very hot thrust reactions.  Hydrogen + oxygen rockets already run so hot that part of the water in their exhaust breaks down, limiting their power.  And Mars' atmosphere is too thin to matter.  External combustion will not improve chemical rockets very much on Mars.

The project of flight to Mars can be here revived and moved, if we find rich passengers and spetsov!

Babelfish is not working for me.  What is "spetsov" in english?

Please note: Babelfish transliterates the letters from Russian to English alphabet.  The correct spelling appears to be the title of this web page.  Unfortunately, I cannot get a translation for that, either.   :?

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