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#1 2018-11-12 11:25:14

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 19,902

Human Business and flight plan for mars

Just creating an area to create a business plan for how we will not only get to mars but how it will be paid for.

Let it be in an outline format with links to the topics rather than discusion of each Topic area as we have spoken about them already..

We can include other destinations not just mars such as the Moon and Venus in the structure of active building of what do we need to do.

Edit:
made update per some suggestions

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#2 2018-11-12 12:00:26

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 19,902

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

Louis fund generation proposals posted later in the topic

Mars Economics under the treaty
The reason to go to mars - Going to mars is not a waste of money
Martian Economics - Imports, exports or independence?

Rocket launch system design as in new, current cots and whom are the providers
Space Acronyms

None specfic journey location aka tourism
Tourism to the ISS was possible when shuttle plus the extra seats on board Soyuz but that stopped a while ago.
The cost of a Soyuz ride (10 million) for Training in Russia, a working science session on board the station and a return flight was possible. NASA may start selling tourists tickets to space going to the ISS on the SPace X and Boeing crew capable capsules with others in the wing for new rockets.

openning up tourism for space

ULA a leftover from the Shuttle, combined launch provider for Boeing and Lockheed, plus soon to have a hand in SLS
Rocket Monopoly - United Launch Alliance

ATK orbital is now Northrup Grumman

Boeing
Delta family (mostly retired)
Capsule Starliner

Lockheed
Atlas V Family (Being obsoleted due to Russian engines)

Serria Nevada

Space X with Dragon cargo, Dragon v2, BFR variations
Kbd512's Space BFR variants

Recycling of launch system parts First stage of Falcon and Falcon 9, Dragon cargo pressurized capsule
Falcon Heavy Assembly Underway

Refueling options if required on orbit

Habitat for space travel legs design as in new, current cots and whom are the providers
Bigelow inflateables

Nasa Inflateable Structures

Cygnus as made for ATK orbital now Northrup Grumman
Nasa Deeps Space Habitat by Lockheed

Deep Space Habitat

Recycling of habitat use

In space communications
In space (consumables) food qualities including water and air
In space radiation protection
Recycling of consumed items

Mars Mission plans
Mars Mission "Alpha."
Musk's plans for Mars
Marsdrive Mission Design
Boeing's plan for Mars

This is a total new design and modified item area for each of the destinations.
Technology needed for Mars

Destination Mars:
Kbd512's human mission design for Mars
Mission One: a one way ticket to Mars?
One man one way suicide mission...
Smallest Human Ascent or Descent Lander for Mars Or Earth
Design Reference Mission 5.0
Mars Direct; Mars Semi direct; Design Reference Mission. Need Updating?

Mars orbital communications, gps system design as in new, current cots and whom are the providers
Topics where we are discussing
Journey time to Mars pg 4
GPS system for Mars?
Navigating on Mars
Mars Communications and Navigation Infrastructure for Crewed Missions

Mars lander system human, cargo types as well as Recycled mars lander including where its stationed when not in use on orbit after transfer of crew for return home.
Landing on Mars
Landing On Mars much older not the same
Best propellant & stuff for a Mars spaceship and lander

Mars insitu with what is required to gather, selection for process to be refined ore and processing as well as what is required to make a finished goods. Refueling from insitu or safe guard of pre-load supplies
Mars Insitu Fuels made from atmosphere, regolith, water

Mars surface Habitat if not mars lander
Long Term Mars Habitat

Mars surface (consumables) food qualities including water and air
Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Mars surface radiation protection

Mars surface Recycling of consumed items

Mars transportation with what is the power source and range for Ground level exploration crew transportation
Light weight rover for Mars
Nukemobiles on Mars
Combining the Rover and Hab - Go RV'ing!
Rover Navigation - How should it be done?

Mars power sources
Light weight nuclear reactor, updating Mars Direct
Louis' Solar Power Strategy


Mars science for each expedition
Where to Land

Mars sustainability to lessen earth sent cargo
3 D printers
Greenhouse in any form

Other destinations which would use similar building blocks to develop plans from

NASA's Moon Mission

Destination Moon surface landings:
The need for a Moon direct *2* - ...continue here.
The need for a Moon direct *3* - ...continue here.
Apollo 11 REDUX
Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status
Armstrong Lunar Outpost - status

Destination Venus Cloud city:
Here are a few related topics for going to Venus to make use of if that is the destination plan that is to be created.

Mission to Venus
Venus First
Manned Venus Flyby Mission
Inflatable towers in Venus
Airplane for Venus

Will continue to gather up the links for each subject area....

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#3 2018-11-13 08:15:07

tahanson43206
Moderator
Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 3,771

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

Business Plan Definition and Links
SearchTerm:BusinessPlanDefinition

Thanks to SpaceNut for creating this Topic area.

This post is a stub for content to be added over time.

Begin Quotation from Google Search for "business failure rate in us"
In a study by Statistic Brain, Startup Business Failure Rate by Industry, the failure rate of all U.S. companies after five years was over 50 percent, and over 70 percent after 10 years.Feb 18, 2017
End Quotation.

I have undertaken several attempts to create a self-perpetuating business and have not yet achieved success. 

I have participated in creation of one successful non-profit, which lasted for ten years before expiring due to exhaustion of the members.

In the context of Mars, entities can and will be created for every imaginable purpose.  My reason for asking SpaceNut to create this Topic section is to try to increase chances of success for those who will be attempting to create business activities on Mars.

To my way of thinking, we are at approximately the stage of Columbus having discovered islands on the East Coast of North America.  Over the decades that followed,  commercial, government and private enterprises undertook the thought process that led to allocation of capital for expeditions, and ultimately to business success for some.

SpaceX illustrates development of a business concept for transportation to Mars, and that seems to me comparable to development of shipping companies 500 years ago. 

The opportunities for enterprises to be constructed on Mars are unlimited as far as I can see. 

Edit 2018/11/14:

General definitions:

A Project Plan is a set of instructions for changing the state of a situation from Now to New.  A Project Plan has defined objectives and a desired end date.

A Business Plan, in contrast, is designed and intended to define a continuing activity which is self sustaining.  A business plan can fail to achieve the desired end state, and most do (in the United States).

What is more, Business Plans must be adjusted as conditions change.

Changes to Business Plans are often brought about using Project Plans.

Resources available to the author:

1) The Successful Business Plan
    Author: Rhonda Abrams Fourth Edition (c) 1991,1993,2000,2003
    ISBN: 0-9669635-6-3
2) Franchising & Licensing Fourth Edition (c) 2011
    Author: Andrew J. Sherman
    ISBN-10: 0-8144-1556-3
3) Entrepreneur Magazine's Franchise Bible Seventh Edition
    Erwin J. Keup and Peter E. Keup
    (c) 2012 ISBN-10: 1-59918-448-6

(th)

Last edited by tahanson43206 (2018-11-14 09:30:35)

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#4 2018-11-13 14:44:38

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 5,875

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

Here's my business plan - Part 1

INCOME GENERATION

Short term  (Years -5 to +5)  - $19.25 billion or  $1.925 million per annum
Population rising from 0 to 12

(a)    General and specific commercial sponsorship - $700million.  The commencement of colonisation of Mars by humans from Earth will be an event of momentous importance. It will dominate news channels for many weeks. It will provide the basis for news and science documentaries, acres of newsprint and countless articles on the Internet.  However, sponsors will benefit from a long build up to the mission, as well as the final landings.  It is considered that Olympics sponsorship provides a good point of comparison. 
General sponsors could include firms like Coca Cola,Microsoft, Nike etc.
The sponsorship available for the initial landings should be on a par with the Olympics. But there will be opportunities for ongoing sponsorship e.g. of exploration missions to Olympus Mons or the Grand Canyon of Mars or to the polar region.  Commercial sponsorship of the Olympics amounts to about $1000 million over the Olympic cycle.  Conservatively one could expect the Mars landings to garner at least $500million – possibly with staged release of funds over a ten year period.
It is expected general sponsorship could continue at perhaps $100 million per mission. . It should be noted that the activities on Mars will be of continued interested to news and science programmes, and sponsors can gain from that continued interest.

There will be continuing opportunities for specific sponsorship for exploration missions e.g. perhaps a rover mission to explore Olympic Mons.   Companies may well wish to secure sole sponsorship rights on these missions, so we might have “The Nike Expedition  to Olympic Mons” for instance.  Or “The Toyota Mission to the Mars North Pole”.  Subsequent explorations should be able to clear at least $200million a time I would say, in the short to mid term.

(b) Sale of Mars TV rights $550 million.  Clearly exclusive TV rights to the initial Mars landings would have huge value.  I think we could be talking about $200-500 million – with the globe parcelled up into about 10 lots.
But later exploration missions TV rights (e.g. to Olympus Mons) will also command high prices. So we can expect something like $10 million per annum (with no significant mass transfer).

(c)    Sale of regolith- $2000 million  The Mars pioneers should be able to return with substantial amounts of Mars regolith.   
I think a figure of $100,000 per kg will be quite reasonable. Even ordinary Mars dust will be a very valuable commodity (as is ordinary lunar dust).  My analysis suggests several thousand institutes around the globe would be interested in acquiring Mars regolith (just as there is great interest in lunar regolith).  I think earnings of $200-$400 million per annum for the first ten years are possible.

(d)   Sale of meteorites - $2500 million.   Meteorites on Earth are collected by both scientists and private collectors. Rare meteorites can be worth millions of dollars. Mars meteorites will be rare almost by definition.  I think we could be talking about $500,000 per kg for the right meteorites. Geology.com offers advice over the web on the pricing of meteorites. At the cheap end these can start at around 50 cents per gram. But rare Mars and lunar meteorites may sell for $1,000 per gram or more – much more in some cases.  So a kilogram meteorite could cost around a $1million or more.  For the first ten years, I think the value of meteorite exports could be in the region of $250-500 million per annum.

(e) Space Agency contributions - $10 billion   There are a number of space agencies around the world who would pay to be part of the first mission to Mars and to have one of their people  be a member of the crew. 
It should be noted that the total amount for all space agency budgets world wide is something in excess of $40 billion per annum. So for this Mars Mission we are looking for only something like $1 billion  per annum - about 2.5% of the overall budget.
There is no reason to think that an average  “going rate” of around $1billion per crew member (over 10 or more years) would be unreasonable in this phase.  This would work out at about $100 million per annum.  If Mission One were to land 6 crew members that would be $6 billion.
Likely participating agencies would include NASA, ESA (with possibly France, the UK and Germany separately), India, Japan, Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, Nigeria, Canada and Australia. Not all could participate in Mission 1. The “entry fee” for later missions would be reduced in price. 

(f) Philanthropic contributions - $2 billion  There is every reason to think that space philanthropists would help realise a mission to Mars. A figure of $2 billion seems a reasonable minimum during the initial development phase.

(g) Scientific experiments - $500 million  Thousands of universities, research institutes and private individuals would be prepared to fund specific scientific experiments on Mars.  $500 million may be a conservative figure.

(h) Art installations - $ 2 billion   There is every reason to suppose that super-rich artists like Damien Hirst would wish to become the first creators of art on another planet.   Moreover, once created, these art works would have a market value and could be sold on. 
To put this is in context – the global art market is worth over $60 billion per annum.  Revenue of $133 million per annum would represent only some 0.2% of that overall market.

(i)  Crowd funding - $3 billion   Once people on Earth are aware that the mission really is going ahead, it should be possible to devise a whole range of crowd-funded initiatives to encourage financial contributions from a portion of the 6 billion people on Earth. These could include: paying to have your name inscribed on a rock face on Mars, paying to have ashes scattered on Mars, paying to direct a mini-robot on Mars.  The possibilities for such funding are limitless.


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#5 2018-11-13 14:47:36

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 5,875

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

  Phase 2 - Medium Term (+5 to +20 years)
Population rising from 12 to 100   

(a)      Export of gold, platinum, diamonds and other precious metals and stones  - $750 million (over 15 years) .    With gold alone currently trading at something like 35,000 dollars a Kg, this category could be a major source of revenue.  Of course it does depend on the colonists discovering exposed gold sources on the surface – no reason why not as no one else is prospecting for gold on the planet. Similarly other precious metals and stones could produce huge amounts of revenue. Earnings of $50million per annum don't seem impossible.

(b)   Sponsored colonists -  $3000 million (over 15 years).      The “gap year” student.   There will in my view be no shortage of young, suitably qualified personnel who would wish to be part of the experience of building the Mars colony as part of an interval between education and work. And, who can doubt that employees back on earth would be keen to employ young enterprising people who take part in this way and show determination, fortitude and a high level of skill acquisition?  Of course the gap year concept will be extended somewhat – it may be a round trip of 2.5 years, with perhaps 1.5 actually spent on Mars.  Earnings at $50m per person might give an average of $200million per annum in the medium term period.
Who would do the sponsorship?   Firstly the super-rich providing the ultimate experience for their adventurous offspring.  Secondly, international companies seeking to raise their profile and attract graduates.  Thirdly, smaller space agencies wishing to make their mark on Mars and conduct experiments. Lastly universities and research institutions wishing to undertake research.

(c)    University of Mars franchise $800 million (over 15 years).      .  Establishment of a University on Mars. This could be the subject of competition between the best endowed seats of learning on Earth. Those with a strong planetary science and astronomy bias might be tempted to sink a lot of money into such a project, especially if they were being guaranteed a head start over their rivals. Mars University of Harvard?  Sorbonne Mars? Kyoto Mars University?  It might begin as a small postgraduate teaching and research facility.  A University, possibly with a benefactor’s backing might be prepared to sink several hundred million dollars into such a foundation and continue to fund at a significant rate.  Endowments of $100-500m are not uncommon on Earth. So, I think  a $500m endowment for this unique foundation is possible.


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#6 2018-11-13 14:52:31

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 5,875

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

   Phase 3 - Longer term  (Years 20-50) $84.3 billion
Population rising from 100 to 5000
   

(a)   Sale of land and bonds - $30 billion.      As the economic potential of Mars becomes clear, so will the urge to invest.  If there is a legal framework backed by a group of Earth nations or the UN, this will allow the effective sale of land (perhaps on the basis of long leases or even licences, if the idea of land ownership is considered to be ruled out by international law) and investment bonds.  If a million square kilometres was sold off, or licensed off,  at $10,000 a square kilometre, that would raise $10 billion.  If the Mars Consortium can start earning say $1 billion per annum, then bonds of several billion dollars could be sold – let us say $30 billion.

(b)    Luxury produce - $300 million.     Once agriculture is up and running, there will be a significant market across Earth for luxury foods and wine from Mars. How about a bottle of “Mars Champagne” at $200,000?  Any takers?  There will be – the super-rich always want to prove they are super rich. Perhaps $10 million per annum.

(c) Luxury goods - $45 billion –        There will be a huge market for luxury lightweight goods made on Mars such as a Mars Rolex watch for men, chiffon scarves, jewelry items and so on.  The Rolex mechanism might be made on Earth, but the watch is finished on Mars with Mars gold.  This could be really big I think.  Imagine watches selling at $100,000.  I see no reason why the Mars Rolex couldn't sell 5,000 of those per annum - $500million. 

The UK jewelry market is worth £5 billion dollars per annum, so I am guessing the global market is worth something like $500 billion or more.  I think it quite reasonable to assume Mars can capture at least 0.2% of that market – 1 billion dollars per annum.

(d)  Sale of “real time” interactive experience on Mars - $3 billion.        Imagine going to a big city Science Museum and being able to pay a few dollars more there to be able to interact with Mars – to write your name on a rock face for instance, or to help move boulders using robots.

If we can beam back 3D data from Mars, there would be scope I think for interactive facilities on Earth.
  Eg. on Earth you get to move replica rocks around with an automated digger, but the automated digger on Mars performs the same action.  And perhaps drills into the rock to analyse it. This could be linked in with Mars museums or theme centres. 
This could easily generate $100 million per annum.

(e) Mars tourism - $6 billion.         If we can develop "direct" shot rocket technology, I think there will be scope for development of Mars tourism – people coming to Mars for perhaps 2 month stays and going on treks to the major tourist sites (e.g. Olympus Mons).  Of course, initially, this will be the province of the super-rich but if the colonists can master home grown  rocketry prices could come down significantly. By year 20 tourism might be taking off and it could generate several hundred million of dollars per annum even if there were only say 1000 tourists per annum.  1000 tourists paying $200,000 for the trip would equal $200 million.

Last edited by louis (2018-11-13 14:54:12)


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#7 2018-11-13 15:09:46

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 5,875

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

I agree with what you say. Because there is (as far as we know) "nothing" in terms of economic activity on Mars, it seems like a poor prospect.

Nothing could be further from the truth!

We have to change our mindset. Essentially, whoever gets there first will have the same land area as Earth to play with. The land will come with no purchase price or rent to pay. They will be gifted trillions of tonnes of soil, minerals, methane and water. Yes Mars has its challenges: very extreme temperatures, high radiation and low atmospheric pressure. But on the other hand, it is very Earth-like  in many respects and the weather is really quite benign (no hurricanes, no major floods, no deluges, no snow storms, no hail, no ice storms, no destructive tornadoes, no high winds...just the occasional dust storm to contend with).

The initial pioneers will have huge capital per capita invested in their community. This will enable them to create their own high tech industrial infrastructure, with huge productivity per person.

Mars has always been a focus of interest, in terms of mythology and science. Once humans are there, its story will become fascinating to hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of people on Earth. It will be constantly in the news, never out of it. Scientific interest will be huge and Mars will be a platform for further exploration of the solar system.


tahanson43206 wrote:

Business Plan Definition and Links
SearchTerm:BusinessPlanDefinition

Thanks to SpaceNut for creating this Topic area.

This post is a stub for content to be added over time.

Begin Quotation from Google Search for "business failure rate in us"
In a study by Statistic Brain, Startup Business Failure Rate by Industry, the failure rate of all U.S. companies after five years was over 50 percent, and over 70 percent after 10 years.Feb 18, 2017
End Quotation.

I have undertaken several attempts to create a self-perpetuating business and have not yet achieved success. 

I have participated in creation of one successful non-profit, which lasted for ten years before expiring due to exhaustion of the members.

In the context of Mars, entities can and will be created for every imaginable purpose.  My reason for asking SpaceNut to create this Topic section is to try to increase chances of success for those who will be attempting to create business activities on Mars.

To my way of thinking, we are at approximately the stage of Columbus having discovered islands on the East Coast of North America.  Over the decades that followed,  commercial, government and private enterprises undertook the thought process that led to allocation of capital for expeditions, and ultimately to business success for some.

SpaceX illustrates development of a business concept for transportation to Mars, and that seems to me comparable to development of shipping companies 500 years ago. 

The opportunities for enterprises to be constructed on Mars are unlimited as far as I can see. 

(th)


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#8 2018-11-13 17:29:56

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 19,902

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

loius could you find the topics where we are discussing each of the bold subject areas and post them in the sections that you have created.

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#9 2018-11-13 18:43:50

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 5,875

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

I think I posted all three posts in a thread but I couldn't find it on a brief search, so basically it was all on one thread. If I can turn it up I will post the link. For this thread I copied from the Word doc I had saved.

SpaceNut wrote:

loius could you find the topics where we are discussing each of the bold subject areas and post them in the sections that you have created.

Last edited by louis (2018-11-13 18:47:27)


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#10 2018-11-13 19:16:31

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 19,902

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

I will give a try once I complete the links and search for the post that I started with.
This will take me quite a while but will keep coming back to fill in what I can.
Its more of a directory of discusion rather than a single coherant plan.

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#11 2018-11-20 12:51:21

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 19,902

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

Computer issues and now back up on the backup to the backup....

Mars economics is in the form of survival first for all the do stay and then for marketing of what can be sent back to earth as a result of human labor on mars much of which is in Louis lists.

Not on that list is the opening of those that could afford to pay and or at least want to work off the pricing of the ticket to mars until now.
Tourism was when shuttle and ISS were the extra seats on board shuttle or Soyuz but that stopped a while ago.

That looks like its about to change in the NASA may start selling tourists tickets to space

Will make a new topic for conversation...
openning up tourism for space

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#12 2018-11-24 16:39:03

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 19,902

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

tahanson43206, it seems that not many are prepared to join in for the topic building from the many discussions that are already here to make use of.

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#13 2018-11-25 09:14:19

tahanson43206
Moderator
Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 3,771

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

In another topic, I ** think ** it was kbd512 who pointed out the need for a communications pathway for transmissions between Mars and Earth when the Sun is between the two.  I searched but could not find the reference, but if someone can find it I'll be happy to add it here.

There would appear to be a business opportunity for a corporation interested in passing information between various outposts in the Solar system, for a modest handling fee.  As I recall, the post I am thinking of mentioned the possibility of using the asteroid belt as a location for a communications hub. 

I'd like to build on that idea a bit, to suggest a communications hub in a facility in Solar Polar orbit.  This would be comparable to the polar satellite orbits in heavy use today on Earth.  The corporation that would undertake this project could serve customers throughout the Solar System for most of the orbit. The exception would be when the facility crosses through the plane of the elliptic.

SearchTerm:SolarCommunicationsHub

(th)

Edit: SpaceNut ... thank you for finding the post I remembered, and adding yours as well.

SpaceNut wrote:

tahanson43206 it was post 21 of Mars Communications and Navigation Infrastructure for Crewed Missions that talk of it and even in the journey time to mars I talk about how the body we are orbiting that it would block all radio transmissions.

Last edited by tahanson43206 (2018-11-25 11:14:57)

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#14 2018-11-25 10:17:12

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 19,902

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

Have added in the topic link in the index under communications for Mars

tahanson43206 it was post 21 of Mars Communications and Navigation Infrastructure for Crewed Missions that talk of it and even in the journey time to mars I talk about how the body we are orbiting that it would block all radio transmissions.

Adding your post to that topic

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#15 2020-05-21 18:26:54

tahanson43206
Moderator
Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 3,771

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

Per a suggestion from SpaceNut, this subtopic is planned to be for design of a Deep Space vehicle that would operate in cooperation with the design of a lander that GW Johnson is working on (in May of 2020) in the Phobos Docking topic.

What I have in mind would NOT be a cycler, exciting as that vehicle concept is.

Instead, this would be a space-only vehicle that would deliver a 190 MT lander to Phobos.

This size is estimated (by GW Johnson) as the right size to deliver a 40 MT payload to the surface of Mars.

The lander itself would land on Mars, along with NASA's cargo, and it could either be dis-assembled for use in structures on Mars, or potentially harnessed in some other way for use on the planet.

The Deep Space vehicle would maneuver from Earth LEO to Phobos and back again.

The feature I would like to add to the concept is a set of collapsible baton-like arms that would fold close to the side of the vehicle during the heavy acceleration needed for departure from Earth LEO, for deceleration to dock with Phobos, and for acceleration to depart Phobos for Earth LEO.

During cruise, the arms would be rotated until they project at 90 degrees on opposite sides of the vehicle, and then set to spinning so that the human habitat modules at the ends would enjoy simulated 1 G conditions.

In the event of a major Solar Flare event, the arms could be slowed and retracted close to the body of the vehicle, where they could be nestled inside of mass comprising the cargo/propellant components of the shipment.

(th)

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#16 2020-06-17 17:18:26

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 19,902

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

GW wrote:

"exrocketman" articles that relate to Mars landers other than a Spacex Starship or Red Dragon,  and not including Mars mission design studies going back to about 2010. By date and title;  on the site,  click on the year,  then on the month,  then on the title,  using the navigation tool on the left. 

8-23-18   Back-of-the-Envelope Rocket Propulsion Analysis
8-6-18    Exploring Mars Lander Configurations
8-31-13   Reusable Chemical Mars Landing Boats Are Feasible
3-18-13   Low-Density Non-Ablative Ceramic Heat Shields
1-21-13   BOE Entry Analysis of Apollo Returning From the Moon
1-21-13   BOE Entry Model User’s Guide
12-31-12  Mars Landing Options
9-3-12    Using the Chemical Mars Lander Design at Mercury
8-28-12   Manned Chemical Lander Revisit
8-19-12   Ballute Drag Data
8-19-12   Blunt Capsule Drag Data
8-12-12   Chemical Mars Lander Designs “Rough-Out”
8-12-12   Direct-Entry Addition to Mars Entry Sensitivity Study
8-10-12   Big Mars Lander Entry Sensitivity Study
8-5-12    Ballistic Entry from Low Mars Orbit
7-25-12   Rough Correlation of Entry Ballistic Coefficient vs. Size for “Typical” Mars Landers
7-14-12   “Back of the Envelope” Entry Model
6-30-12   Atmosphere Models for Earth, Mars, and Titan (this is excerpts from the Justus & Braun EDL book)
6-24-12   Mars Atmosphere Model (Glenn RC)  (superseded by the Justus & Braun book,  useful only at very low altitudes)
6-3-12    Deceleration by Drag Devices (and more) on Mars

What these articles show is the evolution of both my lander concepts and my design analysis methods.

The many pages can make for the success for a mission plan with pieces not yet made but could be.

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#17 2020-06-18 16:52:12

GW Johnson
Member
From: McGregor, Texas USA
Registered: 2011-12-04
Posts: 4,101
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Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

I went through my blog archive and created another list of all the other space program-related stuff that was not strictly Mars landers.  The Mars lander list is in Spacenuts post 16 just above.  The other-than-landers list is here in this post.  I sorted it into multiple categories. 

GW

Reverse-Engineering Spacex Vehicles & Engines:

5-25-20   2020 Reverse Engineering Estimates For Starship/Superheavy
10-22-19  Reverse-Engineering the 2019 Version of The Spacex “Starship” / “Super Heavy” Design
9-26-19   Reverse-Engineered “Raptor” Engine Performance
2-4-19    Designing Rough Field Capability Into the Spacex Starship
9-24-18   Relevant Data for 2018 BFS Second Stage
4-17-18   Reverse Engineering the 2017 Version of the Spacex BFR
10-23-17  Reverse-Engineering the ITS/Second Stage Of the Spacex BFR/ITS System  (this is the 2016 version)
3-6-17    Reverse-Engineered “Dragon” Data (cargo, crew, & "red" for Mars)
10-2-16   Elon Musk Reveals His Plans for Mars (first reveal)


GW's Evolving Mars Mission:

9-14-19  Mars Mission Outline 2019
5-28-16  Mars Mission Outline 2016
12-13-13 Mars Mission Study 2013
7-19-12  Rough-Out Mars Mission with Artificial Gravity
4-23-12  Update to Mars Mission Design
9-6-11   Mars Mission Second Thoughts Illustrated
8-9-11   Post-Meeting Results (Mars Mission)
7-25-11  Going to Mars (or anywhere else nearby) the posting version -- GW's 2011 Mars Society convention paper
1-8-11   Update to Manned Mars Mission Concept
12-20-10 Feasibility of a Manned Mars Exploration Mission Concept
11-29-10 Fast Transit To and From Mars
11-26-10 Mars in 39 Days One-Way !


Cost Comparisons for Launch:

9-2-18   Payload and Cost-Effectiveness Comparisons to Mars
9-2-18   Miscellaneous Rocket Data to Mars (Atlas 5 etc)
9-2-18   Future Spacex Rockets (Essentially Starship/Superheavy)
9-2-18   Current Spacex Rockets to Mars (Falcon-9 and -Heavy)
9-2-18   SLS Capabilities on Mars (blocks 1, 1B, 2B)
2-9-18   Launch Costs Comparison 2018
8-7-15   Access to Space: Commercial vs Government Rockets
11-17-13 Payload Comparisons
9-13-12  Revised Launch Cost Update
5-26-12  Revised, Expanded Launch Cost Data
1-9-12   Launch Cost Data
12-29-09 Better Access to Earth Orbit?


Basics of Vehicle and Rocket Stuff:

11-12-18 How Propulsion Nozzles Work (applies to liquids,  solids,  and hybrids;  even applies to airbreather nozzles)
8-23-18  Back-of-the-Envelope Rocket Propulsion Analysis
10-1-13  “Calibrating” the Ballpark Estimating Method


Basics of Aerothermodynamics:

4-1-20   Entry Heating Estimates (very high readership)
1-2-20   On High Speed Aerodynamics and Heat Transfer (steady state hypersonic flight,  high readership)
1-9-19   Subsonic Inlet Duct Investigation
1-6-19   A Look at Nosetips (Or Leading Edges)
1-2-19   Thermal Protection Trends for High-Speed Atmospheric Flight
7-4-17   Heat Protection is the Key to Hypersonic Flight
6-12-17  Shock Impingement Heating Is Very Dangerous
11-17-15 Why Air Is Hot When You Fly Fast
8-4-13   Entry Issues
7-14-12  “Back of the Envelope” Entry Model


Other Propulsion Stuff:

3-3-20   Ramjet Flameholding
2-16-20  Solid Rocket Analysis (how to do internal ballistics)
2-4-20   One of Several Ramjets That I Worked On
12-10-16 Primer On Ramjets (very high readership)
12-21-12 Ramjet Cycle Analyses


Space Mission Trajectories:

6-16-20  Repeat-Pass Aerobraking At Mars?
12-7-19  Analysis of Space Mission Sensitivity to Assumptions
11-21-19 Interplanetary Trajectories and Requirements (includes faster trajectories and Phobos)
9-11-18  Velocity Requirements for Mars
8-2-12   Velocity Requirements for Mars Orbit-Orbit Missions


Other Space Mission-Related Things:

10-18-19 A Note on Solar vs Dust Storms on Mars
9-16-19  Spacex “Starship” as a Ferry for Colonization Ships
9-13-19  A Closer Look At Nuclear Thermal
9-9-19   Colonization Ship Study
7-14-19  Just Mooning Around
4-13-19  Pivot-Wing Spaceplane Concept Feasibility
10-5-18  Space Radiation Risks:  GCR vs SFE  (more detailed application of NASA's own data)
3-16-18  Suit and Habitat Atmospheres 2018
11-23-17 A Better Version of the MCP Space Suit?
4-2-17   Spacex Re-Flies Used Booster
3-18-17  Bounding Analysis for Lunar Lander Designs
4-9-16   Falcon-9 Sends BEAM to ISS, Lands 1st Stage on Barge
3-3-16   Effects of Microgravity Demand Artificial Gravity
2-15-16  Suits and Atmospheres for Space
1-15-16  Astronaut Facing Drowning Points Out Need for Better Space Suit
11-26-15 Bounding Analysis: Single Stage To Orbit Spaceplane, Vertical Launch
6-28-15  Loss of Falcon-9 Launch to ISS
6-13-15  Commentary on Composite-Metal Joints
4-11-15  Radiation Risks for Mars Trip
11-17-14 Space Suit and Habitat Atmospheres
8-16-14  The Realities of Air Launch to Low Earth Orbit
2-11-14  On-Orbit Repair and Assembly Facility
10-6-13  Building Conformal Propellant Tanks, Etc.
10-2-13  Budget Moon Missions
9-24-13  Single Stage Launch Trade Studies
3-18-13  Low-Density Non-Ablative Ceramic Heat Shields (related to my 2013 Mars Society convention paper)
3-2-13   A Unique Folding-Wing Spaceplane Concept
1-26-13  Aboveground Mars Houses
1-5-13   Using Nuclear Rockets Safely for Manned Space Travel
12-31-12 On Long-Term Sustainable Interplanetary Travel
7-14-12  Gravity Data on All the Interesting Worlds
6-9-12   Pressurizable Domed Habitat Structures
5-2-12   Space Travel Radiation Risks (original application of NASA data)
3-18-12  Aquaculture Habitat Lake for Mars
3-11-12  “Icecrete”, a Substitute for Concrete as a Building Material on Other (Colder) Worlds
12-14-11 Reusability in Launch Rockets
8-2-11   What Should the Government’s Manned Space Exploration Strategy Be?
8-2-11   End of an Era Need Not Be End of a Capability
7-31-11  About Artificial Gravity for Long Space Missions
1-21-11  Fundamental Design Criteria for Alternative Space Suit Approaches
3-10-10  About old Project "Orion" - the nuclear explosion drive
10-31-09 The Future of NASA Manned Space
9-6-09   Space Program Public Support
7-22-09  On the Future of the US Manned Space Program


Asteroid/Comet Defense:

11-17-13 Rocks From Space
2-15-13  On the Two Dangers From Space Friday 2-15-13
4-21-09  On Asteroid Defense and a Good Reason for Having National Space Programs (related to my poster paper in Granada)


Ramjet-Assisted Launch Studies:

11-6-13  HTO/HL Launch with Ramjet Assist
10-27-13 Manned Launch to LEO Using Ramjet Missile Technology
8-20-13  Applying Ramjet to Launch Accelerators
8-22-10  Two Ramjet Aircraft Booster Studies
7-23-10  More Strap-On Pod Ramjet Engine Data
7-11-10  More Ramjet Performance Numbers for the Strap-On Pod
2-28-10  Preliminary Acceleration Margins for Baseline Pod
2-20-10  Ramjet Strap-On Pod Point Performance Mapping
2-20-10  Ramjet Strap-On Pod Concept
2-20-10  Inlet Data for Ramjet Strap-On Pod


GW Johnson
McGregor,  Texas

"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew,  especially one dead from a bad management decision"

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#18 2020-06-18 17:28:22

tahanson43206
Moderator
Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 3,771

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

For GW Johnson re #17

Awesome!

SearchTerm:ExRocketManSummaryTwo

(th)

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#19 2020-06-18 18:12:45

tahanson43206
Moderator
Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 3,771

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

For SpaceNut re this post ...

https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/18/start … -for-2021/

The article at the link above reports on a business venture that involves a flight plan for humans to the elevation (on Earth) which just about matches the lower part of the atmosphere of Mars.

Tickets are forecast to run about $125,000 (US).

For a six hour adventure which has elements of danger (but not TOO much danger!) and a great view, ** plus ** a spashdown in the Atlantic Ocean and "rescue" by a recovery boat, I think that price should appeal to a fair number of folks.  The founders are splitting off this activity from (what I gather is) a successful business that serves the commercial market.

(th)

Last edited by tahanson43206 (2020-06-18 18:13:21)

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#20 2020-06-18 18:39:55

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 19,902

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

There has been many a company saying that sub orbital flights are the way to fund the next tier up for orbital fights. You just need lots of cheap flights to generate cash with.

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#21 2020-06-19 15:18:55

tahanson43206
Moderator
Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 3,771

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

For SpaceNut re #20

The word "cheap" in the context of flights to orbit, or even below full orbit, is an interesting choice.

The only way that ** I ** would be able to afford one is if it were offered as a virtual experience.

We come pretty close these days, with the outstanding video coverage that SpaceX provides.

I'm tossing that thought out for forum members (and readers) to think about, if they have the time and the inclination.

This is: Human Business and flight plan for mars

Business plans are one of the two types of plans SpaceNut has included in this topic.

A virtual flight experience is a bit difficult for me to imagine right now, but perhaps VR (Virtual Reality) can provide it at a level above what we already experience with the high quality video from SpaceX.

(th)

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#22 2020-06-19 16:33:49

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 19,902

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

The last plan is a servitude flight to settle the cost for your trips funding. So unless one is from the select mission crews man will not settle outer space and it will be only done from those that refuse to comeback but stay and set up life not here.

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#23 2020-06-21 17:09:48

GW Johnson
Member
From: McGregor, Texas USA
Registered: 2011-12-04
Posts: 4,101
Website

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

Addition to post 17 above.  Add another title to my "exrocketman" list for the category of "Reverse Engineering Spacex Vehicles & Engines".  That would be "2020 Starship/Superheavy Estimates for Mars",  dated today at 21 June 2020. 

Turns out Starship really can enter low Mars orbit,  and still successfully land,  but only with a fairly trivial payload,  and only from a Hohmann min-energy transfer orbit.  Anything heavier or faster is a guaranteed fatal crash.

So much for aborting a direct landing,  if something like a giant dust storm with high winds strikes while on the way to Mars.

I have yet to look at Starship to the moon with the newer 2020 numbers,  but I will.  And I will tell you when I do. 

GW


GW Johnson
McGregor,  Texas

"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew,  especially one dead from a bad management decision"

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#24 2020-06-22 04:40:32

elderflower
Member
Registered: 2016-06-19
Posts: 1,261

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

GW Could the Mars performance of Starship be improved with a fly by of the moon?

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#25 2020-06-22 08:26:35

tahanson43206
Moderator
Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 3,771

Re: Human Business and flight plan for mars

For elderflower re #24

Bingo!  Thanks for this (most definitely) outside-the-box thinking!

I have not read everything written on this subject by a long shot, but I have ** never ** heard this idea mentioned before.

I hope it will turn out to have some potential.

For example ... we have an immediate potential need ... if the Perseverance rover launch should be delayed past the optimum launch window, perhaps the lunar flyby concept could be helpful in making up lost time.

I assume any additional velocity provided by the gravitational assist would have to be dealt with at the Mars end, so there would be trade-offs.

On the other hand, perhaps ** less ** fuel would be needed on the outbound leg if the Moon is able to provide assistance.

I'm looking forward to seeing GW Johnson's evaluation, either way!

(th)

Last edited by tahanson43206 (2020-06-22 08:26:57)

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