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They could also deny launch permits.

The idea that North Korea or Iran might develop orbital launch capability causes apoplexy (and rightfully so, IMHO) amongst the NORAD generals.

Ain't no one going to LEO without at least one major space power actively cooperating and without at least the tacit approval of the Pentagon.

How much does that assembly line cost? If Toyota only sold  a few dozen cars, they never would have built that assembly line. That said, flexibility is good.

Micro-chip stamping plants cost billions but stamp billions of micro-processors. Dell could never sell a Celeron machine for $500 if billions of Pentium chips were not being made each year.

Yup.

Five years ago, this exact thought motivated the plot premise of my almost finished book. Its frightening how we think so much alike yet reach diametrically opposed political conclusions.

:;): 

Catch-22 :;):

But, suppose someone drives through that price barrier, bites the bullet so to speak, and plants a permanent settlement on Mars - - damn the costs- - and along the way acquires the patents and know-how to lower launch costs and recoups that initial investment from selling that know-how to the follow on people?

Fly cargo independent of crew.

For cargo shots modify the mass fraction to increase fuel and reduce dry weight as much as possible. That points towards extreme disposable. As flimsy as will achieve orbit.

"If it doesn't break, it's too heavy"

For crew a smaller RLV so a more robust crew compartment can be re-used a large number of time.

A flimsy crew compartment built on the principle "If it doesn't break, it's too heavy" is plainly unacceptable. Therefore build it rugged and robust and re-use it.

But don't fly bulk cargo (food, water, fuel) in your Rolls Royce spacecraft.

MarsDog pointed me to a link leading to this quote:

Is this true? Is the Pratt & Whitney RL-10 engine more complex to manufacture than a gas turbine helicopter engine? If an order were placed for 1000 RL-10s how much of a cost savings might there be per engine?

= = =

Thiokol RSRMS cost $30 million each (that is what they sell them to NASA for) based on building 6 or 8 boosters per year.

Might mass production reduce that cost significantly? Say order 500 5 segment boosters.

The current RSRM has an 85% mass fraction. 85% of the launch weight is fuel and 15% is other stuff. 192,000 pounds of "other stuff" according to numerous sources. RSRMs are built with 1970s metalworking technology. Suppose Thiokol were to incorporate composites. Moving from 85% to 87% mass fraction would add 25,600 pounds to the upper stage payload for a 4 segment SRB and add 32,000 pounds to the upper stage payload for a 5 segment SRB.

= = =

Looking at this, =IF= demand existed to fly 500 5 segment SRBS with an upper stage made from 2 RL-10s launch costs for cargo only would fall below $1000 per pound to LEO and in best case scenarios, fall below $250 pound to LEO.

Best case (fantasy?) scenario:

5 segment SRB costs $15 million (based on a 500 unit purchase)

2 RL-10s cost $ .5 million (based on a 1000 unit purchase)

1 upper stage fuel tank costs $3 million? (based on a 1000 unit purchase) 

Miscellaneous stuff including payload stabilization until collected costs another $3 or $4 million.

(Nore - Northrup inteds their new fuel tank to be re-useable as living space and the guidance systems could be collected and returned to Earth for re-use after cargo is collected)

Lets say $20 million is our fantasy launch price. Based on statements from ATK Thiokol's Mike Kahn, such a system with 87% or 88% mass fractions and lighter upper stage tanks could well throw 80,000 pounds to LEO at a net price of $250 per pound.

= = =

Problem? No demand. 80,000 pounds x 1,000 launches equals 80 million pounds in LEO for a total cost of $20 billion dollars.

But then, $20 billion would buy all the launch services needed to build one huge BattleStar Galactica!

Or at a 20% net to Mars delivery ration (100 pounds in LEO equals 20 pounds on Mars) - - $20 billion could send 16 million pounds of supplies to jump start a permanent settlement.

More return to flight http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s … light]cost overruns

http://www.cartoonnetwork.com/ppgstyle/ … ]Powerpuff Girls home at Cartoon Network.

When my daughter was younger, she would watch Powerpuff Girls as much as we would allow.

Excuse me, but there is this red thingee moving towards the green thingee and I think we are the green thingee. . .

or

EEEE-UUUU, thats just not right

Unlike Spaceballs, GalaxyQuest remains funny after numerous viewings. At least IMHO

In my RSO (rather smug opinion) - - unless the federal government stops being the "single payer" for crewed spaceflight (manned spaceflight is so 20th century sexist) none of this discussion really matters much.

If the VSE is go as we can afford to pay we need to get the private sector to pay more so we can go faster.

Bigelow's space hotel is the only private sector application for crewed spaceflight I am aware of that has a realistic chance of becoming real.

Ah, but what about the call for DoD downselect to one EELV?

This whole ISS STS business might be rendered moot.  ???

My mother has a condo on a barrier island near Ft Lauderdale. She is not there.

Friends tell her the islands have been closed, the power shut off and all the bridges raised to keep people off (or on?) the island.