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#101 Re: Meta New Mars » Calliban Postings including links to notable contributions » 2025-07-20 15:12:01

TH, that is interesting.  That is far more than I would have expected.  But it suggests that launch assist could be valuable for increasing payload to LEO.  Musk was of the opinion that Starship upper stage could have reached a low orbit without need for a booster.  But payload would have been effectively zero.  If a launch assist were used, presumably Starship upper stage could function as an SSTO.  I wonder if a Mach 1 vertical launch assist is sufficient to allow Starship to reach orbit with a decent payload?

As an aside, as you already have an account with Gemini, woukd you be able to ask the question posed by this thread?
https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=10721

Specifically, could a plasma confined by a magnetic field, be used to hold an atmosphere to a small body, without sufficient gravity to otherwise hold an atmosphere?

#102 Re: Terraformation » Electrostatic atmospheric confinement » 2025-07-20 14:49:20

I did.  I put the question to the staff at Centauri Dreams as to whether M2P2 could be adapted to hold a breathable planetary atmosphere to a small body.  Their response was that they didn't know, but suspected that the magnetic pressure would need to be far beyond what was foreseen for M2P2.  Which makes sense, given that solar wind pressure is miniscule.

I did a few calcs a while back to work out how much superconductor would be needed to produce a magnetic field strong enough to form a plasma window of sufficient magnetic pressure.  It looked doable.  But another problem with magnetic confinement of plasma is that plasma leaks at the poles.  I suspect that any atmosphere so contained would require gradual replenishment.

One idea that occured to me a while back was that solar wind particles could be used to power the production of an oxygen atmosphere.  If water vapour is allowed to gradually enter a plasma formed from trapped solar wind particles, it will dissociate by ion collision into OH- and H+.  Hydrogen ions, being lighter, would escape more rapidly.  The OH ions, would recombine to produce water vapour and O2.  Being heavier, the O2 would tend to accumulate closer to the surface.  In this way, the trapped solar wind ions can be used to build an oxygen atmosphere from water vapour.  Which obviates the need for electrolysis.

#103 Re: Single Stage To Orbit » Iterative Rocket Design: SSTO LH2 fuel payload 100,000 kg » 2025-07-18 09:52:24

GW, A while back here, we looked into the possibility of building some kind of vertical launch assist.  This would accelerate a rocket to ~Mach 1, vertically, over a vertical distance of a few km.  The idea was to eliminate the propellant mass needed to reach Mach 1 from the launch pad, when propulsive efficiency is low.  The concept appeared to show promiss.  The most practical option appeared to be a steam cannon, which would accelerate a rocket sitting atop a sabot.  The cannon would be about 3km long and would be located within a deep pit, with the rocket exiting the barrel a few hundred metres above ground level.

This concept was aimed specifically at reducing the required mass ratio for an SSTO to reach orbit.  Do you have any methodology for determining how effective it would be?

#104 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2025-07-18 00:10:41

The Chinese economy is experiencing severe deflation.
https://youtu.be/jrBmFumdjD8

Its domestic market is shrinking due to shrinking consumer demand.  Its foreign market is shrinking due to tarrifs.

#105 Re: Terraformation » Para Terra formation of worlds with Nuclear and Water, and TARS » 2025-07-16 14:37:55

On Titan, large volumes of warm air could be enclosed by tent like structures.  There will be no differential pressure across the tent.  It only needs to withstand buoyant forces and wind loads.  Buoyant forces are relatively weak under Titan gravity.  And windspeed is low at the surface.  So the tents can be slender structures.  You don't need to heat and expand the entire atmosphere.  Just the bits you want people to live in.  Kind of like this:
20250716-221615.jpg

The same would be true for a rogue planet.  A relatively cold atmosphere with a desirable atmospheric pressure is as much as we need.  We can paraterraform beneath it.  For much smaller bodies, a liquid ocean is something we could use instead of a thick atmosphere.  Polymer enclosed bubbles of air would provide low-g living space.  They would be ballasted to maintain a depth where pressure is appropriate for human habitation.  On a body with 1% Earth gravity, a 1bar pressure will exist at a 1km depth.  Kind of like this:
20250716-223843-2.jpg

Pluto and Eris would be candidates for creating thick atmospheres by injecting additional heat.  The water world aquaforming idea, with submerged floating cities, could be applied to hundreds of thousands of TNOs and Oort cloud bodies.  Basically, any body greater than about 50km in diameter coukd be turned into a water world.  But atmospheric terraforming would only be possible for relatively large bodies.  Pluto is close to the minimum size at which that is possible.

In intersteller space, where temperatures can drop as low as 4K, it might be possible for smaller bodies like Sedna to hold onto a cold nitrogen atmosphere.  The atmosphere would be warmer at the bottom than the top, because we are heating it at the bottom.  As relatively warm nitrogen rises into the atmosphere it would cool by radiation and then condense into solid nitrogen snow.  This would then fall into the denser and warmer lower atmosphere where it would sublime back into gas.  In this way, atmospheric escape can be kept in check for small bodies.  It only really works if the upper atmosphere of the body can be kept cold.  Much the same thing happens on Enceladus.  Most of the water vapour expelled from cracks in the surface fall back onto the surface as snow.

#106 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Tangent Launch » 2025-07-16 03:19:44

A 3km sled track would be quite easy to build.  A Mach 1 final velocity is quite modest and propulsion for the sled could be provided by a variety of methods.  A turbofan engine could do that.  So you could build the sled using COTS equipment.  Slowdown could be acheived by simple momentum transfer into a water trough.

#107 Re: Terraformation » Para Terra formation of worlds with Nuclear and Water, and TARS » 2025-07-16 02:26:47

We could potentially harvest the solar wind or interstellar medium using magnetic fields.  About 90% of the particles within this medium are protons.  But the balance will be deuterons, helium nuclei and about 1% heavier ions.  The p + p fusion reaction occurs too slowly to be useful because it relies on electro-weak interactions which convert a proton into a neutron.  But protons will fuse with deuterons, yielding He-3 nuclei.  Deuterons will fuse with each other to yield tritium and He-4.  If we can master deuterium based fusion then neutron economy becomes far less important because we no longer rely directly upon tritium.  Outer solar system bodies tend to be dominated by water ice, which makes up roughly half the mass of bodies like Pluto.  We can expect deuterium to be present within this water ice as HDO.

According to this reference, about 1 in every 2000 hydrogen atoms in comet 67P is deuterium.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3 … 357/abacc3

That would mean that every kg of cometary water contains 0.1g of deuterium.  Fusion of 1kg of deuterium will yield some 571,182,758MJ of energy.  So each kg of comet water contains 57,118MJ of potential energy.  Of course the products of D-D fusion are also potential fuels themselves.  But the fusion of all deuterium in a 100km diameter cometary body will yield 379 billion GW-years by my reckoning.  That is about 100GW of continuous power for about the remaining lifetime of the sun.

#108 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Stellarator vs Tokamak vs Laser ignition - Fusion competition » 2025-07-15 13:49:28

The Gemini response is good.  Power density is a serious problem with magnetic confinement fusion.  ITER is designed to produce 500MW of thermal output from a plasma volume of 830m3.  That is a core power density of 0.6MW/m3.  That is over 100x lower than a pressurised water reactor (60-80MW/m3) and almost 1000x lower than a fast reactor (300-500MW/m3).  Reaction rate is proportional to the square of plasma density, so scales with B^2.  Worse still, a fission reactor is really just a shell of carbon steel, clad in stainless and shielded with concrete.  A fusion reactor has a giant superconducting magnet wrapped around it, with a huge amount of complex components.  So the economics look bad - regardless of design decisions.  But there are certainly design choices that can make things worse.

Reducing B will therefore reduce power density even more.  However, accepting a lower B and reduced plasma pressure, would allow large reactors to use cast aluminium confinement coils.  These are non-superconducting and much cheaper.  As we scale up, we also benefit from increasing economy of scale and better plasma stability.  Confinement time naturally increases.  As we move out into the solar system and power needs dwarf those of Earth based grids, the attractiveness of large reactors with improved confinement time will increase.  In terrafrorming programmes we will need power sources of enormous power.  Scaling up a fusion reactor provides this whilst solving the physics problem at the same time.  A few other things thing that Gemini didn't pick on.  Firstly, as plasma volume increases neutron energy begins to make more contribution to plasma heating.  A larger plasma also allows temperature gradients to form.

For inertial confinement fusion, confinement time scales with pellet radius.  But energy released scales with the cube of pellet radius and driver energy scales with the square of radius.

#109 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2025-07-14 19:56:13

Nations that develop an aptitude for manufacturing always do well.  Japan and Germany both achieved high levels of wealth and that wealth was well distributed because manufacturing pays good wages to people that aren't necessarily the brightest.  Both nations have declined of late due to demographic ageing and poor choices when it comes to energy policy.  But their dominance in high quality manufacturing has cushioned their decline.  Even if a more distributed manufacturing system reduces aggregate wealth, it would still have benefits of improving wealth distribution.

A country with a well paid middle and working class, would be a better and more dignified country, even if its billionaires were a little poorer.  But I'm really not sure that such a society would be any poorer.  If there are plenty of well paid jobs for middle and working class people, then taxes can be lower.  It is taxes on wages and personal expenditures that fund government.  Billionaires can hide their money.  But a wealthy middle and working class is also less likely to need government handouts.  So in addition to paying more tax, they are less dependant.  That sounds like a net positive to me.  If the bulk of population are wealthier, they will also support a wealthier economy when they spend that wealth.  The more concentrated wealth is, the less economuc prosperity it generates.  A billionaire only needs at most a few cars.  But a thousand millionaires will buy at least a thousand cars.

Here is something else to think about.  In order to be at the cutting edge of technology in aerospace, a country must have an aerospace industry.  The same is true of steel, cars and electronics.  You cannot be at the forefront of technological competance if you don't make anything.  Concentrated manufacturing makes a few people very rich.  But it leaves almost everyone else worse off.

But there is one caveat that must be understood.  A wealthy society depends upon cheap energy.  Consolidation of industry is realky away of attempting to mitigate expensive energy by pushing scale economues to their limits.  It only half works.  Whilst enormous producers may reduce the price of goods, they also pay fewer people good wages.  Britain has pushed this trick to its limits.  Average wages are low and a majority of people recieve some money from the state.  Living standards are maintained because supermarkets explout tgeur huge buying power to drive down prices.  So everyone is poor, but everything is cheap.  At least that was how it worked until COVID.

#110 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Stellarator vs Tokamak vs Laser ignition - Fusion competition » 2025-07-14 19:31:12

This is interesting, for those that can access Reddit.
https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/com … _a_fusion/

To summarise, the particle confinement time in a magnetic confinement system is a strong function of the size of the confining vessel.

t = a^3 B^2 / T^3/2

Where a is the inner radius of the tokamak; B is magnetic field strength; T is plasma temperature.

Confinement time increases to the cube power of tokamak radius, and to the square of magnetic field strength.  At the same time, confinment time declines as particle temperature increases, but is proportional to T^-1.5.

This suggests that scaling up a fusion device allows magnetic field strength to be relaxed.  It also allows higher temperatures to be achieved, making aneutronic fusion reactions more achievable.  On Earth, there are practical limitations on reactor size.  However, when humanity colonises the solar system, we can imagine building reactors many kilometres in diameter, producing terawatts of power.  If we want to terraform new worlds in the outer solar system, we will need power on this scale to replace the energy of the sun.  A civilisation on Mars will depend heavily on cheap energy, allowing humanity to overcome a hostile environment.  Terrawatt scale fusion reactors may be tge technology that we need.

#111 Re: Not So Free Chat » How far to the abundance economy? » 2025-07-12 04:36:37

The UK economy falls into recession.
https://youtu.be/aTFRu7l979Q

According to the UK media, it was unexpected.  Which leads me to wonder, who in the world was surprised by this?

#112 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2025-07-10 00:55:34

The state of freedom around the world.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ … ound-world

The UK actually makes it to 92%.  I find it hard to believe.  How crappy must the rest of the world be?

#113 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Pure Fission Reactor Announcements/News » 2025-07-10 00:12:09

Heavy water moderated reactors have found a home in countries with limited uranium enrichment capability.  The problems are: (1) Heavy water is energy intensive and expensive to produce; (2) The slowing down length in D20 is somewhat greater than in H2O.  This makes the core bulkier, with greater distance between fuel assembles.  That increases capital cost.  The consensus within the industry is that using enriched uranium in a lightwater reactor is a better solution overall.  But heavy water reactors have been shown to work.

#114 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2025-07-09 23:39:50

Does Ukraine have a stockpile of HEU?  Does it have uranium enrichment capabilities?  Without that, any discussion of building a bomb is academic.  It takes a great deal of industrial infrastructure and it takes time.  It isn't something that any country can do in a long weekend, contrary to what Peter Zeihan has been putting about.

Trying to build a bomb using plutonium is an order of magnitude more difficult.  It means reprocessing lightly irradiated fuel and handling highly toxic plutonium.  It means building and testing an implosion device.  Again, it takes a lot of time and resources.  And the Russians will know you are doing it and will know where you are doing it.

#115 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Long Service Life Energy Storage Infrastructure » 2025-07-09 03:51:01

Renewables aren't renewable.
https://www.mackinac.org/blog/2025/rene … -renewable

Another study, this time by the University of Texas, reaffirms what we already knew.  The embodied energy and natural resources needed to extract a kWh of energy from the sun or wind is extremely high.  This is due to unchangeable characteristics, specifically, low power density.  Powering an industrial civilisation using renewable energy is a bit like trying to body build on a diet of boiled cabbage.  The thermodynamics are not favourable.

I built a small wind turbine out of aluminium and scrap wood.  This was a purely mechanical device designed to tumble stones.  Very few moving parts.  All the same, the amount of time and energy I needed to invest in building it is impressive.  And it still isn't finished.  It will need to operate for at least a few years to save enough electric power to recover the cost of building it.

#116 Re: Meta New Mars » kbd512 Postings » 2025-07-09 03:18:03

This suggests that overall propellant volumetric energy density is a more important consideration than mass energy density.  Musk chose LNG propellant as a compromise between the mass energy density of H2 and the volumetric energy density of heavier hydrocarbons.
https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/Fi … to-license

Hydrogen is even weaker than these figures show it to be.  A great deal of infrastructure and additional energy are needed to manufacture it.  Storing and handling hydrogen on the ground is also very costly and dangerous.

#117 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2025-07-09 00:32:12

I am sick of Britain.  The place is a corrupt hellhole, run by thugs who punish people just for being alive.  They honestly don't know what to do next.
https://youtu.be/2NVwL6iz6js

Trial by jury is set to be abandoned.
https://youtu.be/YIWa58tox9A

The only dream worth having now is the dream of getting out.  I would rather live in Sweden and pay 60% tax than pretend to live in Airstrip 1.  In the UK, there is no such thing as property.  There is no freedom.  There is no future.  This place is an open air prison camp.  More people pour into it every day.  It feels more and more like a pressure cooker.

#119 Re: Not So Free Chat » Chat » 2025-07-08 01:00:29

Fascinating.  Robots have come a long way in a short time.  Though I note that the Boston Dynamics robots do not seem to have found much of a market outside of military applications.  I would suspect that ITAR regulations stand in the way of commercialisation.  The world's military powers are locked into an arms race for drone technology and no one wants to relinquish control over something that might be of use to an adversary.  Rather like nuclear technology before it, robotics is too tightly controlled to allow effective commercialisation.

#120 Re: Terraformation » Pluto Realms » 2025-07-08 00:48:30

I think it is difficult to be certain exactly what conditions prevail on the Proxima planets.  Without transits, all we really have is estimates of mass and orbital characteristics.  When humanity is truly space faring, we may have the means to build truly gigantic telescopes using lunar and asteroid materials.  With those resources at our disposal, direct imaging will be possible.  Until then, it is difficult to do more than speculate.

I don't think we will be faced with picking between solar system objects and exoplanets.  In terms of distance, the moon is a step away.  Pluto is a 5 minute walk to the shops.  To get to Proxima, you would have to walk all the way around the world.  The distances involved are staggering.  The solar system will be heavily colonised before humans reach another star.  And the reality is that space colonisation will be carried out by various different groups of people, with their own priorities and goals.  I would expect a sort of gold rush to occur when new capabilities become available.  Worlds will be claimed, claims will be traded and people will take on the challenges of building new worlds for their own political and economic justifications.

#121 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2025-07-07 23:35:07

I remember GW writing about carbon fibre composites about a year ago.  These materials are immensely strong, but are easily damaged.  Worse still, when damaged, the fault is often unrevealed.  Unlike metal tanks, there is no steady progression of crack growth culminating in failure.  CFRPs fail suddenly and without warning.  Quality control and careful handling is therefore essential.  It sounds to me like morale is deteriorating and people are getting careless.

#122 Re: Not So Free Chat » Chat » 2025-07-05 14:44:26

The paper discusses the problem of microgravity and the use of rotating habitats.
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio … the_galaxy

The point that the paper makes is that plutoids and similar icy bodies are the most abundant type of world in our solar system and probably throughout the galaxy.  Ultimately, pressurised caverns in these bodies will be home to humanity.  The ice will provide radiation protection as well as being the source material for air and water.  Deuterium in the ice will provide an energy source.  As humanity spreads outward into the outer solar system and into interstellar space, we will discover and settle more of these worlds.

Although the paper doesn't say as much, one other advantage that a cold, icy body provides is an excellent heat sink.  A habitat within an icy body could use the thermal mass of the body to cool itself.  Free space habitats will need to radiate waste heat into the vacuum.  This is a poor heat removal mechanism and it limits the habitation density that is achievable in free space.  A habitat in an icy body has a heat disposal mechanism that is far more effective than anything that can be achieved in free space.  A 500m diameter rotating habitat constructed in an ice cave can be decked out internally to provide far more living space than the same habitat could provide in free space.

#124 Re: Terraformation » Para Terra formation of worlds with Nuclear and Water, and TARS » 2025-07-03 07:06:31

At Titan surface pressure (1.45bar) and temperature (94K), nitrogen has a density of 5.38kg/m3.  That is about 4x the density of air in the coldest parts of Earth.  So buoyant lift would certainly be practical for vehicles.  I'm not so sure about lifting entire cities.

I like the idea of building a city on an ice plinth.  This would be a large circular slab of water ice, topped off with a layer of compacted dust.  Temperature within the city would need to remain subzero all of the time, otherwise the ice would lose compressive strength.  But buildings within the city could be heated.

At 250K, air has a density of ~2kg/m3.  If we assume a colum of air 100m high under the tent, the total lifting pressure provided by the density difference can be calculated:

P = mgh = 100 x (5.38-2.0) x 9.81/7 = 474Pa.

A hemispherical dome some 1km in diameter will be subject to a buoyant force of 372MN.  This is a very modest lifting force for a structure of such size.  I would propose a polyethylene based fabric, anchored to the ground using a woven basalt fibre mesh.

#125 Re: Terraformation » Pluto Realms » 2025-07-01 14:03:47

This is interesting.
https://skyandtelescope.org/astronomy-n … 032520166/

In the past, Pluto's atmospheric pressure may have been up to 28KPa.  The temperature of Pluto is close to the nitrogen triple point.  This means that a small increase in temperature results in a disproportionate increase in atmospheric pressure, as nitrogen sublimes.

If humans introduce atmospheric nanoparticles, the resultant global warming effect should be sufficient to trigger the sublimation of solid nitrogen on Pluto's surface.  Once pressure is sufficiently high, areas of land can be made habitable by erecting tents filled with breathable air.  The air within can be heated from ~70K to 250K, using nuclear waste heat.  There is no difference in pressure between the inside and outside of the tent.  But outside, the nitrogen atmosphere would be far colder and denser than the air within.  So the tent must withstand bouyant forces.  But these are fairly minimal.  On the order of 50Pa.  So a simple polyethylene sheet drapped over a thin metal frame, shouod be sufficient.

Whilst Pluto is unlikely to be turned into an analogue of Earth, it may turn out to be one of the easiest objects to make habitable for humans.  It doesn't need a biosphere, just an atmosphere that we can built non-pressurised enclosures under.  The same may be true of Triton, Eris and Titan.

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