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Excellent. The conquest of Mars is back on the table.
Evidence?
Why should the Terran taxpayers pay billions or trillions of dollars to send settlers to a place where we who stay on Earth "can't tell them what to do?" Thus, I suggest the adventurous, the misfits and the loners simply play along and say stuff like. . .
"Um yeah, sure President Bush, we promise to do EXACTLY as you say. Yeah, no worries about that, mate."
Precisely!
"What Martian flag? Don't know what you're talking about. We swear to do what the Master says, we swears."
And once you get settled in you can start ignoring some mandates.
Anybody know a potential colonist who can fix a decent plate of Monglian Beef? Chris
Check!
Well, here's my off-hand thoughts on desireable traits for colonists:
1. Ability to fix machinery with inappropriate tools and insufficient quantities of unsuitable parts, a total disregard for design specifications and familiarity with the fine art of duct tape.
2. Not squeamish about drinking their own urine. Let's be honest, that is what water recycling is about. Still, please, use the filter.
3. The "rugged individualist" type is less suitable than the "independent thinking team player" type. Socialist idealogues are the worse possible choice. A Red Mars is a dead Mars, one could say.
4. Anyone who holds the belief that the settlement of Mars will usher in a new dawn for human civilization and from that time forward we will be more rational and peaceful... Out.
5. Someone social enough to work well with their fellow crewmates but who does not need social contact. Mild misanthropy may not be a bad thing.
6. Ability to judge consequences through unbiased eyes, concern for how those consequences will affect the others, and willingness to accept responsibilty when they blow it. Seeing the world as it really is, not how it should be.
7. Willingness and ability to make difficult decisions quickly. Even when it means that people die.
8. Educated people are needed, but not over-educated. Some of the most highly educated people I have ever known have spouted some of the most asinine ideas I've ever heard. Having a doctorate in some arcane field of engineering is great, but if you can't pick up a wrench and work with junk you're not much help.
Okay, I'll bite.
Having consulted with the dark spirits who are privy to such things, I predict the following:
1. We will see that a quick turnover of Iraq to local authorities is unwise.
2. Musharraf will lose the presidency of Pakistan. Islamic fundamentalists will gain access to that nation's nuclear weapons. It will be confirmed that Osama bin Laden has been hiding in Pakistan near the Afghan border.
3. North Korea, out of desperation, will step up its belligerence, preparing to test a nuclear bomb. At the last minute they will cancel the test out of fear of the consequences and concern that the test will fail. Kim Jong Il will continue wearing those stupid jumpsuits.
4. George W. Bush will be re-elected by a significant, though not landslide majority. Florida 2000 will be invoked with no point.
5. I will lose an election.
6. Neither Spirit nor Opportunity will find weapons of mass destruction
7. The "assault weapons ban," due to expire, will be renewed by a slim majority. With no point.
8. Terrorists will... No, better not put that one in print.
9. I will play Clark's lotto numbers. They will win the following week, when I don't play. There will be much cursing.
I'm sure the all knowing spirits will reveal more in time, but for now I'm out of chickens.
No chickens were harmed in the divining of these predictions.
Hmm. I just have to ask, am I the only one having this absurd vision of George W. Bush standing on the moon in front of a "Mission Accomplished" banner while some CNN pundit complains about him showing up in a spacesuit?
I must say, despite our differences on other subjects, Bill is making a lot of sense here. There are no real practical reasons why we can't start colonization immediately.
Personally, I don't particulalrly care who starts it because once there is a permanent settlement the example will be there for others to follow and they will. I'd prefer that the US government get it going, but if Halliburton or the Red Chinese do it first it's still a day for celebration.
On another note, how does one define "normal" people? If you mean people who aren't NASA types or career military officers, this is easy and already being done to a degree. If you mean "man off the street", random cross-section of humanity, I don't see it happening. Never one for political correctness I'll just say it: the majority of people are too lazy, ignorant or just plain stupid to be capable of doing it. An individual ceases to be "normal" when they demonstrate a willingness to live on Mars and the mental capacity and flexibility to do so.
Do we really want that kid at the McDonald's drive-thru that can't seem to grasp the idea of "no mustard" piloting spacecraft or maintaining life support systems? On the other hand do we really need an aerospace engineer to work on the plumbing? Do we want lawyers making convoluted policy for groups of less than 500 people? Colonizing Mars doesn't require that everyone have a PhD, but it excludes a large percentage of the population who have neither the desire nor the capacity to do it.
Which means that every year the US government wastes enough money to make a planet!
But there is always the "free rider" problem or the squatter problem. The USA terraforms Mars and then the Chinese send settlers.
Yes, but then we'd already have significant infrastructure and numbers of people on the planet. When those Chinese squatters arrive they'll be greeted something like this:
"Welcome to US Mars. Please state your citizenship and are you bringing any alcohol, firearms or fruits or vegetables onto the planet?"
Hmm, I'm thinkin' NATO on this one.
Let's make no mistake about it, domes and excavated mesas are going to be where most Martians live for centuries. The people who live there will have to face many of the same choices as local governments today. Would they rather have tax cuts, or continue to finance the terraformers' pipe dreams?
Quite true. This has alwyas been one of my fuzzy areas on the terraforming question, the benefits of a habitable planet on the one hand versus the expense and bureacracy on the other. It seems to me the decision will rest entirely on how Mars is colonized.
If many nations set up many colonies, terraforming will almost certainly have to wait until a Martian Federation is formed and undertakes it. Over a century, probably two or three.
Or, a suitably ambitious nation could start the project before anyone lives there. This would involve at least the implicit claim to the entire planet by that nation, but that's hardly a serious obstacle. It would be expensive, but not necessarily prohibitively so.
A couple years ago I worked out some rough figures based on the projections in the admittedly less than desirable approach described in Paul Birch's "Terraforming Mars Quickly." Unfortunately this was all done on a napkin in a bar, so I'm working from memory here. Forgive me if I make grevious errors.
As I recall the cost of terraforming, minus cost of infrastructure and other expenses that would be present with colonization with or without terraforming, comes to roughly 85 billion BP, which I liberally converted at an exchange rate of .50 US dollars to the Pound., making the cost approx. $170 billion over the course of 70 years. The US federal budget is roughly $2 trillion a year. Roughly one half of that is in the form of programs or services of questionable Constitutionality or outright waste. Being reasonable we can cut the new-found trillion in half and let some of the programs live. Hell, let's be downright socialist and let 3/4 of it stand. We then have $250 billion to work with.
Which means that every year the US government wastes enough money to make a planet!
Clearly this is very crude, full of assumptions and probably riddled with errors, but it's something to think about...
It looks a little too Christian, don't you think?
I don't think we can justify the terraformation of Mars if we find life there simply because the proccess is so expensive and we'd be paving over the only known extraterrestrial life. Can we ethically (And I hate to use that word) do that?
Can we ethically deny future human generations the resources and living space of an entire world simply because a few microbes happen to live there?
I realize that comes across as rather confrontational which is not my intent, but both questions are equally valid.
Shaun: "But sadly for frothing-at-the-mouth rabid terraformers like me, such a scenario is simultaneously the best and worst of worlds....
I'll love the little martian bacteria too but I'll find it very hard to let go of my beloved Blue Mars!!"
Cobra Commander: "So perhaps I won't be alone in the Society of Greedy Western Imperialists Bent on the Genocide of Indiginous Martian Life for Comfort and Profit."*Good grief. You can count me out as a future member of the SGWIBGIMLCP Club.
Yeah, I don't suppose I'd be a card-carrying member either. But I'd go to the meetings from time to time.
The discovery of life on Mars would be extraordinarily significant, even more so if we could prove that it originated independently of Earth life. It should be preserved and studied. This is not in direct conflict with colonization or terraforming, we wouldn't have much luck wiping the planet clean of them if we tried.
From a more long-term perspective, if Mars has native life then it is likely that many other planets do as well, meaning that if we should ever be so lucky as to find another world even remotely Earth-like it too will (by definition as Earthlike) have life as well. If we won't terraform because of microbes, we can't very well start clearing forest or irrigating fields if some higher form of life is present.
If we set the precedent that native life, however primitive, is more important than human settlement or development than it will follow us to the stars and severely limit what we can accomplish. The debate is about more than Mars.
Fight the Red Menace! Terraform now!
But sadly for frothing-at-the-mouth rabid terraformers like me, such a scenario is simultaneously the best and worst of worlds. A wholly martian form of life will turn Mars into a no-go zone as the I.S.A.M.B. (International Society for the Advancement of Martian Bacteria) and the world's greenies shift into overdrive and make it a Planetary Park.
I'll love the little martian bacteria too but I'll find it very hard to let go of my beloved Blue Mars!!
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So perhaps I won't be alone in the Society of Greedy Western Imperialists Bent on the Genocide of Indiginous Martian Life for Comfort and Profit.
I'm looking for clarification on something. "Black separatist," as in breaking away and starting a whole new country?
I can't just leave that hanging without asking.
This is what I was talking about. Now instead of the space mission we're all hung up on the question of race and how it fits in the plan and why anyone even cares.
Ah hell. Lets' just send as many people up there as we can and let 'em fight it out. That approach at least has historical precedent.
???
As an atheist, I'm not in the least bit offended by attacks on any religion, however I see no point in those attacks. If someone wants to believe in something that you don't, why should anyone care? I know that some Christians can be a little overzealous in their desire to convert, but that is hardly limited only to Christianity or religion in general for that matter. When you believe something you try to convince others of its inherent rightness, whatever that belief may be.
To sum it up:
While I won't come to a religion's defense, I applaud Cindy for doing so.
Welcome, Paul.
flashgordon, you're being an ass.
Will Whites willingly help in the financial support of a private space mission conceptualized, designed and controlled by Blacks. These kind of social concerns will be put into test before the end of this century as the financial might of non-Whites escalate.
If there is profit in it for them. Race and ideology are not nearly so powerful a motivator as the prospect of wealth.
A word of caution: Too much focus on race, while at times well-meaning, often causes greater problems than would otherwise exist. Space endeavors focusing on achievements by a particular race rather than the achievement itself will virtually guarantee that racism will follow us into space.
Oh, so Cobra wants to get away from ER service, postal service, indoor plumbing, the electrical grid... I know, you would rather buy all of that stuff *if* you wanted.
Yep. There's a balance; convenience and security on the one hand and liberty on the other. It would be nice to have the option of choosing one's own balance, rather than having it dictated.
Maybe an Islamic form of government may be more appropriate for Mars. Have anybody ever considered the fact that Islamic civilization will also arrive on Mars?
If a group of Muslim colonists want to set up an Islamic society in territory they develop, I don't have a major problem with that. As for an Islamic government "for Mars" I must give an emphatic NO. I would oppose a Martian planetary system of any form for the first several decades at least of settlement.
On a more general note, mixing religion and government has a tendency to end badly. Were I neighboring such a colony, Islamic or otherwise, I would watch them very closely.
Wouldn't be anarchist friendly, since it'd be expanding, and it would eventually expand into already settled anarchist societies.
Okay. Maybe nomadic anarchists would fare better, wandering the universe to escape the riff-raff that keeps moving in. But the expansion would happen over two or three generations at any rate and so wouldn't take anyone by surprise.
On a related note, it has been my observation that it is the nature of government to grow and I see little reason to doubt this would also be the case in a society founded by anarchists. It may take longer, but after generations in one place the "real" anarchists may want to relocate even without the prospect of Imperial Military and Corporate Behemoth moving in. ???
There was a time when I could have moved out into the wilderness and lived however I chose, now that opportunity does not exist.
It dosen't? How has this 'opportunity' really changed? Do you mean you could have lived in the wilderness without worrying about your actions having consquences that might affect another? Is that the opportunity you are talking about?
The opportunity I speak of is one in which I am so far from civilization that my actions are unnoticed, and more importantly, the actions of government are unable to affect me significantly. Maybe I take the myth of the American frontiersman too seriously, maybe I just don't want to pay taxes. Either way, I cannot escape the ever-present reach of governing authority asserting itself into matters of which I neither desire nor require its "assistance." I don't want to destroy government, I just want it to leave me the hell alone.
Do you believe the "Roman" core could be sufficiently open minded to allow the fringe to live in peace? Or would the quasi-fascist leaders of the core be unwilling to tolerate ideas percolating back from the fringe?
This would depend heavily on the history of the society in question, but It seems more likely that the "core" would have little reason to be hostile to the ideas that filtered back. Unless, as governments are sometimes prone to do, it became corrupt and oppressive in which case the outer colonies would be the hope of humanity.
But focusing on Mars, let's say for the sake of discussion that the Terran authorities grew hostile toward a group of Martian settlers. What can they do? They can't invade the planet, not without massive expense and telegraphing the move 9 months to a year ahead of time. Factor in the UN haggling and they've got plenty of time The distance is just too far to subdue them.
The real problem comes in when Mars is too heavily populated and propulsion technology allows large amounts of cargo or personell to be transported quickly. Then the whole expansion phase has to start again. Better get to work on that hyperdrive, but don't make it too fast.
All of this leads to less freedom, or at least less of the opportunity some seem to want with big open spaces and very few people.
As Josh so often points out, technology changes everything. If we possess sufficiently advanced technology then we longer need to live in cans on the surface of the planet. Some surely would, but others could live in big pressurized Mars trucks, wandering the planet as they please, only stopping at settlements at rare intervals. There are almost endless possibilites if the technology is sufficiently reliable. Living off the land allows tremendous freedom of movement and independence. A person could live on Mars and never have to speak to another human being for the rest of their life if they were so misanthropically inclined.
Yeah, well, I'm sure you're just using "clark definition" for government.
Ha! Make sure you rewire that kill switch before you start talking like that.
Hmm, thought you advocated large militarized societies, Cobra. Wouldn't a planetary government fit with that?
Such societies need safety valves. Not everyone wants to live under them, as you well know. I advocate something vaguely akin to the Roman model, in which you have a large, militarized state surrounded by an ever expanding frontier. Most people would be perfectly content to live in the developed "core," while those who choose to can leave and live as they see fit on the frontier. When enough of them are out there and the frontier becomes increasingly developed, it is brought further into the fold while new areas become open for settlement. The civilization grows and the malcontents can always get land of their own and live by whatever screwy ideology they choose, rather than fomenting rebellion and terrorism. Everybody wins. A sort of anarchist-friendly fascism
So yes, I fully expect and would advocate a planetary government for Mars at some point, but only after the planet has been heavily developed and other suitable sites for colonization have been located and can be reached.
Anyway the opportunities available in America are drastically less than the opportunities that were available in the 19th century.
Unless you happen to be black, yellow, brown, a woman, an immigrant, disabled, poor, uneducated...
We have more opportunity, not less. :;):
A valid point, but opportunity comes in many forms. There was a time when I could have moved out into the wilderness and lived however I chose, now that opportunity does not exist. We have more opportunities within the established system, but almost none left outside of it.
In a sense, we have the same total sum of freedom, but spread over a larger group of people. Yes, the example is wrought with flaws (how do you quantify freedom?) but the general effect is as described. Some people have more freedom than they would have before, others have less. If everyone is to have the freedom once enjoyed by the few, the conditions that allowed it need to be restored, meaning large tracts of uninhabited but accessable land with little or no governing authority.
In short: No planetary government for Mars.
And finally, welcome to the fray bmk.
I thought this was interesting, sorry to be off-topic.
Yeah, we wouldn't want to get away from the important issues
I've always thought the Battlestar Galactica premise had great potential, people of an advanced technological civilization suddenly stripped of their home and illusions, forced to survive against an enemy determined to destroy them. It was never quite done as well as I thought it could be, but if the Sc-Fi Channel makes more episodes I'll certainly give it a chance.
Cobra's comments don't surprise me, though. Except for one thing, I think that the failure for humans wasn't because of technology, it was because of how that technology was used.
As is always the case. Still, if you must build a sentient robot make sure you have a remote with a destruct button.
This is assuming you all are talking about a breeding colony. :;):
Is there any other kind?
I did watch it, was neither impressed nor disappointed. The military was facing cutbacks, everyone felt secure and comfortable, some were pushing ahead with the technology that burned them in the past. It was all very progressive one might say. Progressive like cancer. Cylons kill everyone, no one saw it coming. Fools.
As for the "Noble Lie" element, I'd like to see that played out. It's similar to (I'm going to piss off somebody here... ) the idea of a Heaven, you can't prove it's there, but no one can prove it isn't and as long as enough people believe it behavior is directed toward desireable ends. There was already the element that I can crudely sum up as "when peaceniks run things, people die" and I'd like to see them take on the big, shining lie. They won't, but it would be interesting. To me it's far better than the old premise of searching for a planet they knew was out there someplace.
It looks like we're essentially in agreement on this one, Bill. Well, except that car insurance thing but at any rate... I'm more than willing to consider any evidence the pro-Kyoto crowd has, but so far it just hasn't been convincing and therefore I see no reason to accept the treaty. If the world wants to take that as a national digicus imputicus then so be it, all we did was not sign it.
No apologies needed Cindy, but thank you. You are far more respectful and reasonable than most people I argue with And I mean that sincerely.
But now that I'm here I might as well be troublesome...
William Calvin argues that "abrupt climate change" has been a very common event in global history with abrupt non-linear consequences. For example, the disappearance of the Arctic ice cap and Greenland ice sheets (happening today!) can either:
(a) lead to rapidly accelerating global warming due to less ice to reflect sunlight; or
(b) riccochet into a new Ice Age as the salt conveyors (the Gulf Stream is one example) shut down trapping more heat in the equatorial regions while glaciers rapidly advance across the northern hemisphere; or
? maybe very little.
Yet we still have the little problem of not having compelling evidence that human activity is causing disappearence of the ice sheets in the first place. We may be the primary cause, or we may be utterly irrelevant. If we accept the above premise that we can't predict what the effects will be and they could range anywhere between wild extremes, how do we know we aren't stabilising it? I don't see any reason to make policy based on what we think could happen projected from what we think is happening, which we think we might be causing.
Gotta watch out for those invisible monkeys, they're bastards.