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But on the Moon, the startup costs are unimaginable. I don't think its really sunk in with any of you what a task you are proposing.
Gold rush? One more time, there is not going to be a "gold rush" on the Moon.
Tell that to the Russians and Chinese, regardless of whether there's anything valulable there or if they're touting about for their 'futile' space agencies.
Optimists may be let down but just as often it is the pessemists that are blind-sided by the future.
Regardless of the costs involved, it is looking more and more like everyone is hell-bent on getting to the Moon.
IMHO, the only reason Ares V uses 5-segs is because they're needed for The Stick anyway.
ESAS determined that a 5-Seg SRB was needed for Ares V back in 2005. At that time the 4-seg SRB (+ SSME US) was specified for Ares I. Later NASA decided to maximize synergy between the two vehicles by using the same 5-seg SRB and J-2X for both of them. This also had the advantage of reducing development costs and risks, even though it extended the development time for Ares I.
Just makes more sense using common elements as well.
Which industries? Come on, name some.
...transport/maintenance/salvage of Earth satellites and other near-Earth traffic. Support industries would include mining and purification of O2, aluminum, titanium, silicon, maybe water; shipping O2 for use in space; cryotank production, wire extrusion and other simple metal forming; glass (sapphire?) production; solar collector and concentrating mirror production; life support - air and food production and recycling; solar power collection and night-time power storage/production; repair and low-volume custom equipment production in support of other activities.
That's what I'm talking about too! And none of these are minor.
Note that I'm *not* saying these will all spring up right away. I'd guess it'll go slowly, and only really take off once we start heading to Mars...
And while not nessicary for initial missions, it will prove to be handy to have a base capable of supplying oxygen needs and metals from an off-Earth site.
And actually we do make computer chips and ships in a handfull of places and ship them all over the world. But I digress, this analogy has long outlived relevance.
Yes, we ship them all over the world for pennies a pound - and that's why it's relevant to a context where it'll cost high hundreds of dollars a pound to ship products that cost only pennies a pound to make on Earth. Even if the product costs 10x or 100x more to make on the moon, it'll be cheaper to make it on the moon.
Take THAT anti-moon-activists! *cough GCN cough*
I read about that - shame it's long since been canceled. I would be thrilled for some kind of Mars Multiprobe mission with little landers. Obviously good concept for weather and seismology.
I honestly hope for Lockheed. Given the Centaur upper stage and the External Fuel tank this seems literally right up their alley. Boeing makes a good Delta...usually...but Detlas as I recall aren't man-rated. Prior to Challenger's explosion the Centaur was being considered for a shuttle stage. Having Lockheed managing both CEV and the upper stage ought to make specifications far easier to enact given they'd being built under the same 'house'.
So Russia basically decided to take advantage of our achille's heel? Opportunisitc but then again it gives their agency attention (and funds eventually) they've been starving for.
The ISS has proven what cooperation can do, at least when coupled with bureacracy. If our partners want in what should be done is developing a system of compatability, not dependency. ESA if they chose Russia may soon find themselves as much a lapdog to them as they often claim we treat them. I'm betting the major reason Russia sucked up to them was for access to French Guiana's spaceport.
Major eek reminescent of the asteroid mission Dawn. At least they mention the other three prospective landing sites turned out to be good.
This may prove to be the last 'traditional' lander on Mars - given the immense success of Sojourner and its successors mobility is in. I imagine the only thing in the future that'd remain stationary would either be a penetrator (which given Deep Space 2's performance may be unlikely) or the Mars Sample Return.
Hopfully Phoenix will find something interesting within its reach. God forbid it repeat its predicessor's fate.
I feel my "delusions of grandeur" senses tingling
...coming from the guy whose name was taken from a canceled nuclear propulsion project and who believes the space elevator is conceivable. Suffice to say you're only sensing yourself, as much as I'd like to wish the elevator could be made real.
I will say your arguments are, usually, intelligent but if you haven't noticed most of us are aware of these facts and if we weren't optimisitc about space travel then this forum wouldn't exist would it?
Except for that niggly business about being under pressure, radiation, and meteors. And the terrific cost of all that unnecessary construction for people that won't be there long anyway. Burying huge structures is a different matter entirely too.
I feel my "delusions of grandeur" senses tingling
No offense but I am defending a Lunar Outpost. All you've done in this forum is point out the negative qualities; isn't there anything positive you have to contribute?
Any base on any body in the solar system will be under pressure - the Martian atmosphere exceeds the pressure lows of even Everest by magnitudes. Mars' atmosphere is still a lousy radiation shield that will ALSO require burying underground. The only body we could conveivable walk on without pressure is Titan and I doubt you'd enjoy wading in -200 or so Farenheit of methane. You may as well argue against space exploration altogether if you bring up vaccum.
Shopping mall? Thats crazy.
"Office workers" also have the ability to go outside now and then and home to, by Lunar standards, is a huge mansion. The comparison isn't valid. It is a clear, obvious, proven fact that people don't cope well psychologically with extremely long periods of confinement.
Given lunar gravity is 1/6th of Earth once you get even basic construction down you can build mansion-sized structures and even domes that'd make the Astrodome look like a lobster pot.
No doubt you won't hesitate to bring up the advantages of Martian gravity and its applications to launches and building structures...
The Moon is an oil derrick. Oil derricks don't have shopping malls. Adding pressurized square footage to a Lunar mining camp will minimize frivolities.
It isn't an oil derrick it's a mine - get your annalogies right.
Second, you'd be suprised how many mining towns turned into cities even after the gold rush died away.
You seem derogatory of a Lunar Outpost. We need to establish something and since space stations have proven to be a bust the Moon is the next logical step, and don't even argue there with six months exposure to raw radiation en route to Mars and nuclear propulsion another bust for the time being; AND Martian soil also has yet to be tested for toxicity to human tissue whereas we know the condition of Lunar soil.
Weigh this: NASA didn't chose the Moon over Mars idly, and Bush had nothing to do with it either - he was talked into it and given his intelligence he would have just as easily supported the ISS had not space enthusiasts rushed to him before bureacrats after Columbia. The Moon is close enough to offer something whether you see it or not. Mars will still take another full decade to be capable of reaching.
In short, in defense of Luna, squawk in protest enough about Luna and Mars gets smacked down too. If you use the argument of "Why the Moon?" the same politicians you convince will then turn to your Mars ambitions and blink apathetically saying "Why Mars?" I count my blessings and I look further along.
Ares IV is just a launch vehicle, it has no cargo return capability. Ares I is not dependent on the ISS, it's for human missions beyond LEO. An Orion capsule may be attached to the ISS as a lifeboat with a capacity for 6 up to 10 crew.
Ares I may not be dependent on the ISS but neither can it launch the Orion much farther up without an EDS from Ares V to back it up.
And I very much agree that the moon won't have a permanent population for a very long time.
Neither do miners live forever underground nor metal workers in a factory.
The key question is the effect of 1/6 gee on health, especially on pregnancy and children...We also don't know that people can adjust to living permanently in underground facilities with only occasional excursions outside.
The Mall of America seems to be doing alright. You'd be suprised how acclimated humans can get to secluded spaces...just ask Dilbert in the average overworked office.
Mars is different in this respect...
I suggest creating a Mars Outpost forum and pointing out its merits there. It has been talked about enough here. I'll be happy to make my Martian suggestions there myself but here let's focus on what can be done with the Moon regardless of ambitions toward Mars.
Once we have cheap launch, there will really be no contest!
Cheap launches won't get cheap until we work on the problem from both ends. You may develop either a space elevator (not so likely for near future you blatantly screaming about) or a commercial vehicle (which sadly is almost questionable) but you'll still be hauling material from Earth.
An O'Neil colony needs raw material in massive quantities, likely more than even a space elevator could handle over a few years. If there's one thing you can do on the Moon in the short term is smelt some metal and put it into orbit.
I dug this up from one of the old CEV threads long before we knew if the capsule or plane would be the direction that we were going at the time.
Just one of the Biconic designs that were thought of back in July 31, 2005 and I am sure that there are more.
I seem to recall this being favored or at least suggested for Mars landers back in the mid-80s for Bush Senior's blatantly rejected space initiative. How does this compare to lifting bodies and capsule designs? Any benefits or cons?
Mars undeniable has more but Luna is too close to ignore; just because its been visited briefly doesn't mean its terra boring or useless.
Microchips as they are likely won't remain that way for very long - optronics for instance is more heavy on glass on silicon which the Moon is bountiful in even if copper is lacking. With weeks of sun available not just power but heat perfect for smelting which'd be a tad tricker on frigid Mars.
Initially any lunar facility would focus on basic construction but rather than relying on some feign technology like warp drive and the space elevator I'd put my hopes in a Lunar colony.
If people aren't patient enough for developing the Moon do you honestly think they will be moreso far Mars? You discover a fossil there if you're lucky but it quickly becomes yesterday's news in our world for better or worse.
Nonsense!
Ok stay on Earth and croak with the rest of the dinosaurs dumb ass.
Which industries? Come on, name some.
Name all the functions of any Earth-orbiting satellites and factor in Luna's low gravity and non-existant atmosphere for extremely easy launching. What does it take to launch a few geostationary satellites typically? An Ariane V or a Soyuz? Something more akin to a Pegasus or the nearly-forgotten Redstone could do the same job or better from a lunar spaceport.
How much does a satellite cost? Crunch some numbers - at least a hundred million if not moreso. How much does communication and plain-old-HBO depend on satellites? ALOT...and people protest those damn cell towers so don't go blah-blah about Earthly installations taking over - I drove for HOURS across several Midwestern states with no cell signal. Billions are invested in satellites by dozens if not hundreds of various companies that depend on their services for global connections.
Now what happens when a lunar company offers to launch a few satellites at 2/3rds the lowest standard cost? (and I'm being conservative there). There will be an avalanche of buisness. Small nations without satellite access (more specifically the budgets) will get their own networks.
HBO, Hollywood, Internet, World Wide Web, and college kids calling mom for a loan are ALL things that won't go away anytime soon. They all tap into satellites. Tap into the satellite industry and Luna will be a gold mine. Any investment into a lunar infrastructure made beforehand would be quickly paid off.
Are there any projects in the works to take advantage of this inevitable heavy lift capability, besides the lunar missions?
Any 100 tonne space telescopes?
Any 100 tonne ISS modules?
Or how about some super-giant mars rovers?
All the ISS modules are ready, none require 100 mT lift, and none would want to wait for Ares V. Size is also a problem with the ISS, the main truss is about 100m long, so Ares V won't help there unless it was completely redesigned. Several modules could have been stacked together, but they were designed for the low g accelerations of a Shuttle launch and for human assembly on orbit. With Ares V capability a completely different design would have been possible and the equivalent mass (400 MT) could have been launched in 3 or 4 flights. But that's all history now.
Super giant Mars rovers? A little more weight always helps, another step to say 5 mT would be useful. How much can Ares V deliver to the Martian surface? Dunno. Allowing more mass reduces the spacecraft cost and increases capabilities, but remember Ares V ain't cheap. Estimates vary from $400 million to about a billion per launch. The Atlas V for the MSL rover costs about $200m. As always total project cost is the bottom line.
Given the ISS will hardly last past 2020 a far superior successor could take advantage of Ares IV or V. With Orion capable of high orbit they could place the station higher to avoid atmospheric drag entirely unlike any prior space station. I kind of wonder what space station modules designed for an Ares launch would be like - the Russian MIR types were so claustraphobic although I doubt they'd be as spaceous as the Skylab was.
With $400 million yeah its not cheap but better that's a better fare than any STS launch offered.
I honestly hope for all the potential Ares V (and IV) offers.
At sea level for instance, RS-68 is just as efficient as the mighty SSME.
I don't think the issue is so much efficiency as it'd be hell-of-a-lot-less complicated and expensive as the 'mighty' SSME.
If it performs as well as the SSME then all the better and that gives NASA's decision to use it that much more support in my opinion.
Any 100 tonne space telescopes?
Any 100 tonne ISS modules?
Or how about some super-giant mars rovers?
Gee, this newfound heavy lift launch capability is really gonna embarrass NASA when it sheds light on all those wasted shuttle-flights that were just as expensive.
A major hell yes to all of the above.
With the Ares V already designated for cargo launches it would practically open the door to all the commercial opportunities slammed shut on the shuttle after the Challenger disaster. It would certainly outperform all the Titans and pinch, if not kill, buisness for the EEVLs like Detla IV and Altas V.
The Ares IV ought to be able to provide much of what you've suggested, mostly because it could be developed slightly faster than the full Ares V.
Why bother with Ares-IV when Ares-V is so similar?
In the shorter term, if you absolutely need a rocket capable of lobbing ~30MT to TLI, then Ares-IV would be quicker.
And likely cheaper, and considering the upper stage is optimised for a manned spacecraft safer even. That's why I'm thinking Ares IV might be handy.
By the same token ESA could use some Ariane Vs for all its launches but it didn't create the Vega for nothing.
As for Ares V aside from Lunar & Martian launches it ought to be able to handle GEO satellites and anything in high orbit - THEN I totally agree with you GCN. Is there any benefits that could be gained from a GEO space station for that matter?
With skip entry you get a lot more variability on that launch window.
I guess another term for aerobraking
If it isn't aerobraking it is a close match. I think the difference would be if the aforementioned skip puts the spacecraft into LEO from a high-speed transLunar trajectory. Certainly the same engineering could be applicable to aerobraking at Mars or even Venus or even the outer planets (for a mission to the Galilean satellites, for instance, it would be more mass-conservative to aerobrake at Jupiter ala 2010 Odessey Two).
Space elevators, as cool as they could be, still are quite likely impossible. It is entirely possible that carbon nanofiber composites will never reach the require strength. Even if they do reacht the "magic number," we will require several hundreds of tonnes of the stuff, if not a few thousand. Right now producing such a quantity isn't going to happen, and companies are scaling up to produce only kilogram amounts.
I have a little hope for space elevators but right now they're barely at an experimental stage let alone out of hypothetical. If you're optimistic bet on 2050, realistic maybe 2120, and pessemistic never.
Scott Horowitz, NASA’s associate administrator for exploration systems, said he asked engineers at the agency’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., to study a rocket design that would combine the Ares 5 main stage with the Ares 1 upper stage to permit an around-the-Moon-and-back shakeout flight of the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle [image] several years ahead of the first lunar landings.
With a fully tested upper stage in the area of 2012 with the orion being check out for 2015 all in prepration for the 2018 target dates for moon landings...
Not to meantion that we get the tooling for the main tank online sooner.
It would certainly be an interesting hybrid of Ares I and Ares V - as I posted elsewhere I think an Ares IV could prove worthwhile and nearly as useful as Ares V itself.
Thinking further, an Ares IV could be a cheaper alternative to Ares V - we'd finally have the means to launch a substantial spacecraft into LEO just as the Russians have with their Soyuz - no longer limited by the shuttle's payload bay. A space station possibly (and one more quickly assembled), but I'm thinking more along the lines of a monster Earth-Observation or Space Telescope satellite. Russia may have the rockets but it's budget has been shot to hell so there'd be all kinds of applications for this hybrid beyond the VSE.