You are not logged in.
I liked some of Mr. Dinkin's ideas, but I feel compelled to echo Clark's criticism of the 'privatize everything for more people in space' mentality. Maybe we could try the Dinkin approach to MANNED space exploration... maybe. But don't privatize 90% of NASA. The manned space program is only one facet of NASA's raison d'etre. It sounds like Mr. Dinkin wants to hijack NASA for the sole purpose of putting humans into space and giving private space enterprise a shot in the arm-- at the expense of scientific gains via non-manned programs.
While manned exploration is a worthwhile goal, it should, IMO, only be a subset of our overall space effort. As such it should not eclipse the other facets of NASA, and privatizing 90% of NASA per the 'Dinkin report' would almost certainly do this. (By the way, how much of NASA is privatized now? Much of our hardware and much of our services are provided by contractors. The number of actual Federal employees in NASA has been shrinking for some time. Just how much privatization do we need? Could the burgeoning privatization over the past couple of decades be in part responsible for some of NASA's current ills?)
To put Clark's remarks into something of a nutshell, what it boils down to is what you want to be in space for: Money, or discovery. I personally favor the latter, but have no problem with mixing in SOME of the former (not 90%). While I like some of Dinkin's points such as incentivizing private industry to be a bigger player in space, I have a problem with the expressed contempt for 'big science.' (The Hubble provides much, much more value beyond the pictures, and I would hardly classify ISS as science. Apples and oranges!) No one does science, especially big science, like the US, and no one does space science like the US. The MERs and Cassini are just two recent, monumental reminders of this. The pursuit of knowledge for its own sake always pays handsomely down the road, but the benefits are generally beyond the horizon available to the interests of our current capitalism. Therefore this pursuit must be undertaken by non-commercial entities such as NASA. Rampant privatization runs the risk of causing a paralyzing myopia on the discovery front.
Furthermore, the article calls for a semi-militarization of space to protect yet-to-exist future space assets against yet-to-exist threats to said assets. Where would these threats originate? On Earth. This is DoD's domain; I say let them deal with it--they have a bigger budget and more freedom to operate anyway-- and leave NASA to science.
So sure, try some new ideas along the lines of privatization (prizes for instance). But do it gradually and see how it works over at least 10 years. The radical restructuring of NASA that Dinkin proposes seems to me like throwing out the baby with the bathwater.
ps. Thanks for turning me on to The Space Review. No sooner do I mention the prizes here than I see http://www.thespacereview.com/article/172/1]this article on "prize fatigue."
The dusty plasma idea looked pretty interesting, I just wonder about the layers of complexity it would add. In solving problems associated w/ the dust confinement, they kept adding more equipment. And what kind of funding is it getting, how far along is it? I don't see anything on the net later than 2002. It appears the dust has to be ionized in order to be deployed... so what happens to it after being bombarded by the charged particles of the solar wind? How much of the dust would become neutralized and no longer controllable? The potential additional payoff by using reflective properties of the dust is certainly huge though.
One drawback for the magnetospheric idea (dusty or not) seems to be limited payload size. I wonder how well such a system would scale up to payloads a couple of orders of magnitude larger than 100kg? Is there a point where increasing the size of the fields wouldn't be able to provide enough acceleration for the increasing ship mass.
I was a little overzealous w/ that interstellar statement. Depends on what kind of speed you could build up before passing the heliopause... getting up to 50 km/s, according to the m2p2 calculations, was based on an acceleration period of only 3 months. What if you could accelerate all the way to the heliopause? 100 km/s still takes roughly 10kY to Alpha Centauri. So not great for long distances.
I did read somewhere that it could be used to 'tack' against the solar wind but couldn't re-find the place I read it. So I don't think maneuverability is a huge issue.
I stumbled across this project while visiting UWash on business back in '99. These guys are progressing slowly toward larger NASA funding. Searched this forum (Interplanetary Trans) and didn't find any other posts on it, so here it is for your edification:
http://www.geophys.washington.edu/Space … /M2P2/]The link.
Synopsis-- These guys propose using the solar wind to push against a ship-generated magnetic field that is 'inflated' via plasma injection. Note the speeds that may be attainable. Note also that the fields can be used to shield the spacecraft against radiation.
I think this is an ingenious idea for interplanetary transportation, as well as for early attempts at unmanned interstellar probes. Beautiful simplicity.
I predict this is how we'll get around the solar system until fusion or antimatter becomes practical.
Don't see much discussion of overall spending comaprisons here...
I found some links that may be of interest:
I like http://www.federalbudget.com/]this one-- a nice illustration of comparitive budget sizes, AND it explicitly compares the money we spend on debt interest to the money NASA spends.
For a liberal slant, there's http://www.warresisters.org/piechart.htm]this.
And a http://mwhodges.home.att.net/fed_budget … nservative take on it (there's a pie chart 2/3 way down the page).
Finally, I found this http://www.sniggle.net/Experiment/index … commentary to be enlightening.
In keeping with the question implied in the thread title, my personal view is that the portion of defense money that is wasted (that is, the money that is basically pork and corporate subsidy, money lost due to 'cost-plus' contracts, no-bid contracts, etc., money that 'lubricates the process',) could have colonized Mars by now without compromising national security. I'd like to see some money taken from defense spending and given to NASA. It will give NASA a little breathing room and make the DoD more lean & efficient & less of the pig trough full of subsidies. Or at least encourage these big defense contractors to diversify a little more toward space exploration.
You'll recall that Zubrin points out in "Entering Space" that it was the pro-war contingent of the Nixon administration that intentionally killed the Apollo program and relegated NASA to a much smaller budgetary teat in order to free up money for more buildup in Vietnam. Worth it? In hindsight, I'd have to give a resounding "NO."
OK, deagleninja wanted justification, so I'll throw this out: The money we spent on our nuclear arsenal has prevented a major world war from happening for the past ~60 years. I tend to believe this, I just wonder if we really needed as big an arsenal as we bought.
What about asimov's future history? You know, galactic empire, wholesale terraformation, all that? And, he used the same timeframe as here, ~25kY. Of course, he also constructed a galaxy devoid of alien life, which i think is pretty unrealistic.
nobody addresses the ultra-negative option of human extinction here either. i think that should be a choice in the poll. i'd vote for that one depending on what kind of day i'm having.
First time in 2 mo. I've been able to sit and read an entire thread... I've been surprised at how level-headed (for the most part) this discussion is. Another sign of an above-average forum.
In relation to some of the earlier posts about Islamic culture vs. Judeo-Christian, has anyone here read Kim Stanley Robinson's "The Years of Rice and Salt"? As an armchair historian I found it an interesting & entertaining read. It deals with a lot of the culture comparison issues earlier in this thread using the alternate-history mechanism.
Also: Lately the Sierra Club has been in turmoil due to its upcoming board elections being 'held hostage' by 'anti-immigration interests.' The implication is that there is a right-wing conspiracy to undermine the Club's ideals (environmental preservation/conservation) by getting conservative, anti-immigration candidates elected. Since most of the Club's membership base is somewhat ideologically liberal, they are frantically sending out notices about the upcoming election, urging people to vote and fend off the 'takeover' attempt. The ironic thing is that most environmentalists, while tending to be lefties, realize that unchecked growth (as exemplified by, say, unchecked immigration) is bad for the environment, but have a hard time reconciling this notion with the racist stigma attached to most anti-immigration types. (Not to mention the fact that conservative board members, once elected, may undermine the overall mission of the Club.) I tend to see the current turmoil at the Sierra Club as a microcosmic manifestation of the larger immigration issue. Serious issue, needs to be addressed, but we need to make sure we address it for the right reasons (not racism).
While I agree that Western Civ as originally evolved is a great thing, I think it has been decaying non-trivially from the inside for some time now. Threats to this culture from without put aside, I sometimes wonder if it is really worth preserving here on Earth, much less seeding space with. We have drifted so far from the original tenets of exploration, reasoned inquiry and self-actualization toward crass materialism, gluttony and celebrity-worship. Cultures/societies evolve just like organisms. Unworthy ones (worthy in the sense of being able to survive in their ambient environment) will die out &/or be supplanted/destroyed by more robust ones. History shows this. If our civilization & cultural values are strong they will survive via immigrants voluntarily adopting them. If not they will give way to more robust culture imported by immigrants.
I'm not a PC apologist, but at least some of the misery in the undeveloped world stems from our plundering their resources to maintain our standard of living. We should keep this in mind when formulating our immigration policies. I think that stopping immigration, if possible, is not going to be the panacea that some seem to think. Yes, there are serious problems related to immigration that will surely sink Gennaro's "ship" if not dealt with in a realistic, objective manner... People's lives are going to have to be ruined & some are going to die before things get any better. But I view the immigration issue as a facet of the broader problem of overpopulation, which ultimately will affect us all. A shortage of resources is going to trump the cultural issue if it hasn't already. If we don't deal with this soon, at the global level, Nature will handle it for us in a very noncompassionate and painful manner.
So I checked out that website & wound up adding it to my faves. I was looking at the 'VLT Images of Titan' article & wondering what those bright regions could be. I looked around a little to try and cross-reference them with the data from Arecibo back in October (they bounced radar off the surface and found indications of large lakes of liquid... something). Do these bright regions represent the liquid? Compare these with the Hubble near-infrared observations [http://www.planetary.org/html/news/arti … lakes.html](link). The optical observations (these new ones and Hubble's) both found the bright region in the southern hemisphere, and I think the Arecibo obs did too, although I can't find anything now showing any kind of localization of the highly-radio-reflective regions on the surface.
I wonder how much control the Cassini flight planners will have over where Huygens will land? Could they 'aim' it to hit one of these high-albedo regions which seem more likely to be liquid (and thus maybe increase Huygens's lifetime on the surface)?
This will almost certainly be a watershed year for space exploration. Already has been, I guess.
Better yet, get the seismometers in place and do some active sensing with intentionally-generated seismic waves (using explosives or 'thumpers'). This would allow good subsurface mapping, which would aid in the search for water (among other things).
Very interesting. I read it but it wasn't clear to me just what was the political reason for O'Keefe's view. Did anybody else glean it from the article?
Is it a political decision, or a monetary one? Not spending that extra shuttle flight on HST allows it to go to ISS.
But if, as the engineer's paper says, it isn't any less safe to do HST as it is ISS, what is the reason for not doing HST? What is O'Keefe thinking? How will he answer the questions raised by this paper?
Because Moon is Evil. Then, God didn't create the Great American Race to go to an Evil Planet, right ?
:laugh: :laugh: He ties in other threads AND converts the religious at NM to the cause of Mars Direct.
'Thou shalt not be distracted in the spreading of the human seed beyond Earth by the Moon, that which contains and embodies all evil that I expunged from the Earth.'
Or to paraphrase David Bowman: "All these worlds are yours, except Luna. Attempt no landings there unless you want to waste large amounts of time and money."
You ask a lot of questions there, Clark, but I don't see many answers. The closest thing I see to an answer is your last question, which basically breaks things down into feelings-- which I grant are a wholly different arena from science by the very definition of science. Religion provides comfort and hope. (Both very, very good things.) But this is hardly an explanation of why things are, beyond defining the 'why' as springing from the inscrutable will of some supreme being.
To me, the only difference is how one chooses not to think about the 'why': By passing the buck on to a higher intelligence/morality (God) or just choosing not to really think about it. Each to his/her own. Life follows its course and the best we can do is enjoy the ride and try to make it enjoyable to others.
Bringing this back around, I don't think the question will be answered on Mars. Maybe Thalassa, but not Mars. Besides, this horse has been beaten for centuries by philosphers with much larger bludgeons than I have, and it's still quite alive and kicking. And I don't wanna get kicked.
Religion will find its way to Mars one way or another. I would like to see an attempt at an atheistic society but I think it would be impossible. I have a feeling that people in general have a genetic predisposition toward religion. And I agree with Aetius and others that the authoritarianism that would be required for 'religious cleansing' of new Martians would be monstrous. (Just look at the Soviet Union and communist China.) And Clark makes a good point about the 'why' vs. 'how' thing. (I might add, however, that I personally get thru life fine without the 'why' being supplied to me... but of course I can speak only for myself. If I were feeling more mischievous I might prod somebody to explain how religion really provides the 'why'.)
Your ideal case, Thalassa, could only be created because the first generation of humans there (if I remember the plot correctly) was spawned artificially by a robot ship upon arrival. So they were somewhat free of the biases and superstitions of parents/grandparents etc. Even then, though, I wonder if the Thalassan society would have developed religion(s) on its own. Maybe not, since the information given the individuals as part of their education was based on science and religious ideas were weeded out (they were, right? it's been a long time since I read it). If you take the viewpoint that religion is a vestige of human prehistory, a holdover from the days before science existed to explain the unknown, maybe the Thalassans could leapfrog over this period of 'investigative naivete' using their pre-stored information from Earth that explains natural phenomena scientifically.
I hope this analysis isn't seen as dismissive by any religious folks here, I just wanted to develop a viewpoint from outside the religious perspective.
so winds there nearly always blow inward (towards the south pole) in a giant spiral; thereby containing radioactive air-borne particles. For this reason nuclear testing there may also be less environmentally damaging
Are these surface winds or at altitude? If you are referring to the circumpolar vortex which helps create the ozone hole, you're talking about high altitude circulation. But the surface is different, at least near the coast-- you get ferocious katabatic winds in the winter from the cold air falling off the 2-mi. high ice sheet. The question is, from how far inland do these winds come?
As for nuclear testing, there are several geological agencies which will have a problem with this if it is at the surface or below. Antarctica, being seismically quiescent, is highly valued as a platform for seismography of distant southern-hemisphere earthquakes. Shock waves from nuclear testing would be an interference.
While some parts of the interior are probably suitable for nuclear waste disposal, I think the economic barriers (due to transportation) will be insurmountable into the forseeable future. Not to mention political ramifications.
OK, I'll shut up now before this turns into a free-chat topic on the Antarctic...
Both releasing a few kilograms of plutonium (uranium?) into the atmosphere. And we're still alive, right?
yeah, but I have all these weird growths and sick-looking black moles all over my body, and my hair is falling out, and i can't hold down any meals... :laugh:
Lovell just wants to go back because he never got to walk on the moon . I met him a few years ago and he seemed like a nice enough guy. Just needs to look a little further out in his astronautical ambitions.
I'm with Shaun, luna's kind of a waste of time/resources. As the Mars Society 'steering committee' mentions, the moon should only be visited by hardware that has ALREADY been engineered for Mars capability-- and preferably has already been to Mars.
And I bet there won't be plans for any trips to the lunar poles, water or not.
it would be greatly beneficial to store radioactive and other wastes there (deep under the ice sheet)
Au contraire. The Navy had a fission reactor at McMurdo station thru the 60s and (I think) part of the 70s. They eventually removed it (due to pressure from scientists and partly some greenies), leaving a spot with low-level radioactive contamination. Nothing has subsequently been built on this spot.
As for putting nuke waste in Antarctica, under the ice sheet-- probably won't happen, fortunately. It costs a lot of money to get stuff down there, would have to go by ship (which would threaten any maritime environments the ship might sink in), and the ice sheet is moving. Any shear effects in the ice could compromise the integrity of your containers. Not to mention the fact that there is a potential goldmine of exobiological-oriented research to be had under that same ice--Lake Vostok being a prime example:
(See [http://astrobiology.arc.nasa.gov/storie … _0899.html]this and [http://www.nsf.gov/od/lpa/news/02/fslakevostok.htm]this, and if you're really hungry for info on Antarctic subglacial lakes a google search will turn up a banquet.)
Antarctica is a giant laboratory for all different branches of science... the less contamination there, the better.
Some other Antarctic science links:
[http://amanda.wisc.edu]Muon & Neutrino Detector Array (AMANDA)
[http://astro.uchicago.edu/cara/]South Pole Astrophysics (CARA has evolved into some newly-named entity which I can't find, but all the instruments are still down there gathering data...)
Well, back on-thread, nothing wrong with nukes in space IMO, as long as they're used outside the Earth's magnetosphere. I'm all for em... I think JIMO will be a big first step toward making this tech practical, if it survives the congressional knife.
we can do it without another JFK. if the details of the plan can be hammered out s.t. the plan can gather enough momentum over the next few years, this may be enough to keep things rolling. at this point i think it's going to hinge on the implementation... avoiding contractor greed, cost overruns, etc.
of course, the whole thing could easily be sunk by an anti-JFK... a reverse-visionary who cans the whole thing on ideological terms. but i prefer not to think about that too much.
I've been watching SpaceX for a few months now. Does anybody have any idea if/when they're going public?
And I wonder if Rutan will eventually try to develop orbit-cabable craft once he wins the X prize? :;):
I'll be happy to see human beings from any nation travel to Mars
yes. my interest in space exploration stems more from feelings for humanity as a whole than from nationalism. but i do think that americans will have good things to offer the new frontier, if we ever get off our asses and go.
Hopefully China will motivate the US into once again having a real manned space program.
what do you think prompted the lunar aspect of W.'s space initiative? there is nothing better to motivate the typical american than the prospect of competition. as such i'm behind the chinese (and whoever else will do something to get the US gov't to sit up and take notice) all the way.
Wow, I can't remember ever seeing Cindy in such a pessimistic mood. While her populist, non-elitist leanings warm my heart, I still feel that there would be intermediate- to long-term advantages to space tourism, even if it was only for the rich for awhile.
There is the potential for LEO snobbery to turn off the common folk to the idea of space in general... but don't underestimate the force of perceived self-inadequacy. Many of the common folk, while disdainful of the rich elite, also aspire to be rich and elite. As long as it was entirely privately financed (with no tax loopholes and gov't subsidies, which means we'll need to oust the cut-taxes-and-spend Repubs for awhile) I don't think the general public will have a problem with Bill's Ritz in Space.
And here's how it may help space exploration indirectly: If enough rich fat cats spend time at the hotel they may get interested enough in space to help fund further exploration (I realize that most of them will probably only be interested in funding further hotels, but a few may take a bigger perspective.)
The more people in space the better. I too am more interested in exploration over tourism, but if we are really interested in exploration and COLONIZATION, then the tourism will help in this regard.
And I don't see a contradiction between the ISS and the hotel. The ISS is wasting NASA money that should be going toward exploration. The hotel would be wasting fat cat money on entertainment for fat cats. Ideally it wouldn't detract from exploration.
And I also agree with others here that the space tourism industry, as it burgeoned, would become more accessible to those who aren't fabulously rich.
But no subsidies, NONE, or Cindy will be proven right.
With all that said, does anybody know what kind of market exists for such an industry? Sure, we had 2 gazillionaires go up to ISS, but is there enough interest in other multimillionaires to continuously sustain a space tourism economy? I'm not sure there is. 2 individuals don't even come close to making it sustainable.
So what would actually inspire Americans to fund a manned mission to Mars?
The discovery of a Wal-Mart there.
My question:
What do you know?
Seems like that gives us the most bang for our interstellar buck.
My own flaky, oddball viewpoint, for what it's worth:
I'm putting my money on panspermia, especially as put forth in "Entering Space." I think the Galaxy is old enough that life has developed elsewhere previous to Earth, in microbial form at least, and that there has been time for this life to seed the rest of the Galaxy-- via launching from meteor impacts if not by outright intelligence-directed dissemination. It's my hunch (and what else do we have to go on here, really?) that we are descended from these microbes.
An interesting question is whether life has developed more than once and whether or not independently-developed life would be able to compete with the panspermic microbes raining down onto its home planet from space.
For this reason I have a lot of interest in investigating comets (and Mars), as I think they will help provide insight into the panspermia question.
BTW, my definition of complex life does not require sentience, just advancement past the microbial stage.
The galaxy is incredibly huge, and incredibly old, and we are utter newcomers (modern humans are only ~100,000 years old, vs. a galaxy that is on the order of 10 billion years old). I would be really surprised if sentient life has not arisen several times already. (This does not necessarily mean that it exists currently anywhere other than Earth, but I have a hunch that it does.)
Humanity may be unique, but it isn't alone. The only real question in my mind is how long sentient life lasts-- does it keep evolving into greater intelligence, or does it regress or die out over time?
The NASA engineers need to make their decisions on a technical basis and not a political basis. After all this investment the international space station must be finished
Interesting you should say this, as it's been my impression that the reason we're finishing ISS is a political one-- we have to honor our commitments to our ISS partner nations.
As someone else stated here, a shuttle mission for repairing hubble would give a better scientific return on the investment than a mission to ISS. However, if it can't be done then it can't be done. No need to risk any more lives over it.
Funny thing though. How are they going to deorbit it now that they can't send a shuttle mission to attach a deorbiting device (see "$300 million to destroy hubble" thread from november)? Hmmm.
I still have hope for the tug mentioned in the November thread. [http://www.spacedaily.com/news/rocketscience-03zzn.html]Link
Unfortunately they aren't calling for a first flight of the thing until '07.
It will increase/change the nature of missions in general, but not necessarily crewed missions.
Any life found there will almost surely be microbial. The average American will not grasp the significance of these microbes and will not see the discovery as a reason to push for crewed missions. (They will likely see it as a reason NOT to have crewed missions for fear of interplanetary contamination.) Note, this is only my personal analysis. I hope my fellow Americans have more intelligence than I'm willing to give them credit for.
Part of me hopes life is not found; then Mars will be ours to do with as we please. But I think life will be found there if we look in the right places... esp. if there's liquid water there somewhere-- like underground.
Rxke pretty much hit the nail on the head there. While I get the feeling that I'm quite a bit to the political left of a lot of the pro-spacers here, I do agree that our problems here on Earth are never going to be solved completely, and space exploration offers unforeseen options that may help to mitigate these selfsame problems.
But here's the main thing: There is no reason why we can't do both. We can have our cake and eat it too. It just requires a balance of ideological and fiscal priorities. We can do it. We have been doing it for the most part.
Besides, what good is Utopia if its members just sit around gazing at their navels?
I still want to know what Kerry's response to the posts in this thread would be like. I imagine we'll find out if he gets the Dem nomination and they take the battle to the Repubs.