Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Commodore · 2005-11-04 16:14:14

The race is on.

Good. Now if we only get those in power to see it. It took the powers at be how many years to figure out Osama ment business?

Xaliqen · 2005-11-04 17:39:11

It seems a little far-fetched (to say the least) to be comparing the Chinese with Osama, no matter what context you're talking about. I realize the comparison was made light-heartedly, but they're so completely different phenomena that it's simply rather ridiculous.

In the long run, no one will ever 'win' or 'lose' a space race. Space is simply too big for that sort of thinking. Though, hopefully we'll all win by benefitting from the development of resources within the solar system.

Now, if we're talking about dominance of the lagrange points, that's another matter and one which does warrant some concern.

Grypd · 2005-11-04 18:43:48

China has a lot of work to do to be able to send and get Taikonauts from the Moon, It must have A heavy lift option, practiced docking and longer term missions, it must have a designed Moon lander, Designed and tested spacesuits for the Moon. Not to mention it needs to know where to land and how to do it and have a decent knowledge of the Lunar terrain and Maps. Still it is the measure of there space programme that they can consider they can do it in this very tight timeframe and we shall see if they can succeed.

Now though space is a race and for domination of the Moon and Mars there are spots where being first there gives Major advantages. She who controls those areas of permanent light gains great long term power. Aristarchus crater is another as it seems to be home to a lot of released volatiles, not to mention being central crater regolith covered and surrounded by highlands.

Mars is another example what happens when a country gets both Moons and lands and controls Olympus mons with the plan for use as an elevator site?

In short there are strategic points on or around every planet/Moon he who controls them can find it easier to dominate that terrain.

Commodore · 2005-11-04 19:02:28

Well, in terms of a military threat, its no comparision. China already has ICBMs. The worst thing that may come out of this is MIRVs, and they are after them anyway.

But this is a direct challenge to US dominance of space, which is considered reason enough to keep the shuttle around long past its useful life. In terms of national pride and engineering prowess, this is a race we can not afford to loose. And as Gryp pointed out, the control of polar and equatorial areas, and high altitude sites are vital in terms of future developement.

The congressional subcommittees controlling NASA needs to take this very seriously.

idiom · 2005-11-04 23:24:46

China has given themselves twelve years. If I recall, America went from where China is now, to the moon in about eight years and that was without years of ICBM's, Russian tech, super computers or CFD and the like.

2017 is an easy date. 2010 is actually reasonable given the global body of knowledge and technology.

srmeaney · 2005-11-05 01:19:43

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/co … 02,00.html

Boo!

publiusr · 2005-11-10 14:38:10

China has a lot of work to do to be able to send and get Taikonauts from the Moon, It must have A heavy lift option...

Agreed.

Admiral_Ritt · 2005-11-15 16:24:08

Maybe The chinese could develop something the USA or Russian never did.
In the short term, rather than wait to create HLV, realy quickly.
They could design and build a......

A Long march Launched expendable Trans-LOE propulsion module.
admitedly it probably would be pretty limited in it's thrust capabilities,
Assuming it weights about as much as Shezou + Science Module.

Now assuming this module could be sent to earth orbit and to Lunar Orbit.
I think It would give the Chinese the ability to a fairly quick "Flags & Footprint"
type mission. Though because of weight limits, my guess is that
the Lunar Lander would be a tiny, one-man Type. (think Science Module Mass)

The propulsion modules would have to be powerfull enough to not only break out of
earth orbit, but also be able to deliver a Big Delta Vee, to slow down your returning Shenzou vehicle. Tricky rendezous' but practice makes perfect.

srmeaney · 2005-11-16 08:01:01

Now assuming this module could be sent to earth orbit and to Lunar Orbit.
I think It would give the Chinese the ability to a fairly quick "Flags & Footprint"
type mission. Though because of weight limits, my guess is that
the Lunar Lander would be a tiny, one-man Type. (think Science Module Mass)

Or they could commit straight off the end of their Space station program which should be around 2015 to a multi module space habitat capable of making a lunar landing and leave crews there on one year missions as a permanent development base which would give them time to build infrastructure, dig underground bases, begin the basics of resource mining and deploy what they need in their vision of a Chinese presence in Space that is beyond the commitment abilities of anyone else.

The Tug option: Considering the engine needed to push this orbiting station out to the moon can be deployed to orbit as a payload rather than as part of the existing systems, and replaced at a later date without replacing whole space transport infrastructure, All they need is the ability to keep people on the Moon permanently to make it theirs.

The ability to maintain a human presence on the Moon will be a real test of their ability to equate that to a Mars colony. Despite the differences, Humans are going to need everything shipped in on the assumption that every thing they do locally will fail and every thing they get in the mail will be flawed.

SpaceNut · 2005-11-16 09:34:07

Yes a building block approach to building with what you have and not with what you would like to have. Granted it takes more launches to get it fully assemble but when you consider that both Russian and Chinese rockets are quite inexpensive when compared to what Nasa is using. How can you go wrong with that approach.

publiusr · 2005-11-16 16:29:42

The Chinese are proposing a new launch vehicle as you know--(delayed now). In fact, they have done a great job of reaching for the stars. A much better job, in fact, than China's only private astronaut--a merchant by the name of Wan-Hoo. And we all know what happened to him.

That made me reflect upon ancient attempts to reach for the heavens.
I was reading a nice book the other day, on this subject:

The MOON: Earth's Natural Satellite
by Franklyn M. Branley

And stumbled across this quote:

"In the time of Alexander the Great...a method for reaching the moon was suggested...to harness two griffins...Their continued efforts would carry the passenger to the moon..."

We have come a long way from those days of yore.

Today, we don't require two Griffins to reach the moon.

We need only listen to the one.

The book:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/de … ce&s=books

Grypd · 2005-11-27 18:03:30

Article about Chinas plan to go for a Moon landing in 2020

Associated press article

Austin Stanley · 2005-11-28 07:33:33

Mars is another example what happens when a country gets both Moons and lands and controls Olympus mons with the plan for use as an elevator site?

There may be some point to this on the moon, but I doubt it. Bases are pretty small and the moon is still very big. Definetly not on Mars. In this example, if you have a space elevator that streaches up many 1000s of Kilometers out into space, does it realy matter if a Mountian gives you another 10k or so?

------

I also agree with Admril Rift. While the Chinese could get to the moon via the building -block approach (ie. launch several small craft dock them, and send them on there way) the cost of this sort of mission, is to high for anything more than flags and footprints.

srmeaney · 2005-11-28 08:39:58

On the contrary Austin. The point of going is going to stay. The cost is a cost that must be paid no matter what. In a communist economy, these things can be achieved based entirely on the idea that the Moon and Mars is territory that must be colonized. If the have to send one way and support a basic colony that is devoted to digging a huge underground complex so as to avoid shipping an otherwise vast number of materials just to build a city on the surface.

If you can support a thousand by digging a cave network and draging an airlock module into the mouth of the cave, rather than shipping a million tonnes of building, it is a lot simpler.

If all it takes to support the excavation team is a habitat that can be assembled in orbit by joining a few modules together and then landed in a good spot with some tunnel cutting equipment and an airlock that can be sealed into the stone, then that is how it works.

John Creighton · 2005-11-28 09:20:19

On the contrary Austin. The point of going is going to stay. The cost is a cost that must be paid no matter what. In a communist economy, these things can be achieved based entirely on the idea that the Moon and Mars is territory that must be colonized. If the have to send one way and support a basic colony that is devoted to digging a huge underground complex so as to avoid shipping an otherwise vast number of materials just to build a city on the surface.
If you can support a thousand by digging a cave network and draging an airlock module into the mouth of the cave, rather than shipping a million tonnes of building, it is a lot simpler.
If all it takes to support the excavation team is a habitat that can be assembled in orbit by joining a few modules together and then landed in a good spot with some tunnel cutting equipment and an airlock that can be sealed into the stone, then that is how it works.

If all you needed was food then maybe you would be fine just shipping food to support a large group of people doing manual labour on the moon. However, a moon base is going to need a sufficiently large life support system to support people which will include methods or production and recycling of water and oxygen air filtration. Thus china will not be able to make the colonization of the moon any easier by showing less concern for the people it sends into space.

clark · 2005-11-28 09:21:09

The stars need fertilizer. Send people.

srmeaney · 2005-12-01 17:25:31

On the contrary Austin. The point of going is going to stay. The cost is a cost that must be paid no matter what. In a communist economy, these things can be achieved based entirely on the idea that the Moon and Mars is territory that must be colonized. If the have to send one way and support a basic colony that is devoted to digging a huge underground complex so as to avoid shipping an otherwise vast number of materials just to build a city on the surface.
If you can support a thousand by digging a cave network and draging an airlock module into the mouth of the cave, rather than shipping a million tonnes of building, it is a lot simpler.
If all it takes to support the excavation team is a habitat that can be assembled in orbit by joining a few modules together and then landed in a good spot with some tunnel cutting equipment and an airlock that can be sealed into the stone, then that is how it works.
If all you needed was food then maybe you would be fine just shipping food to support a large group of people doing manual labour on the moon. However, a moon base is going to need a sufficiently large life support system to support people which will include methods or production and recycling of water and oxygen air filtration. Thus china will not be able to make the colonization of the moon any easier by showing less concern for the people it sends into space.

I never said They would show no regard for their people. I suggested that if you want to achieve a certain end in a faraway land then send heroes who are capable of staying there and getting the job done and the risk of death is a part of that.

You assume that colonies are built by slobs who come home at weeks end to a hot meal and a couple of beers by the BBQ. I suggest that They give up beer and take the BBQ with them because they cant come home.

srmeaney · 2005-12-01 17:28:54

On the contrary Austin. The point of going is going to stay. The cost is a cost that must be paid no matter what. In a communist economy, these things can be achieved based entirely on the idea that the Moon and Mars is territory that must be colonized. If the have to send one way and support a basic colony that is devoted to digging a huge underground complex so as to avoid shipping an otherwise vast number of materials just to build a city on the surface.
If you can support a thousand by digging a cave network and draging an airlock module into the mouth of the cave, rather than shipping a million tonnes of building, it is a lot simpler.
If all it takes to support the excavation team is a habitat that can be assembled in orbit by joining a few modules together and then landed in a good spot with some tunnel cutting equipment and an airlock that can be sealed into the stone, then that is how it works.
If all you needed was food then maybe you would be fine just shipping food to support a large group of people doing manual labour on the moon. However, a moon base is going to need a sufficiently large life support system to support people which will include methods or production and recycling of water and oxygen air filtration. Thus china will not be able to make the colonization of the moon any easier by showing less concern for the people it sends into space.
I never said They would show no regard for their people. I suggested that if you want to achieve a certain end in a faraway land then send heroes who are capable of staying there and getting the job done and the risk of death is a part of that.
You assume that colonies are built by slobs who come home at weeks end to a hot meal and a couple of beers by the BBQ. I suggest that They give up beer and take the BBQ with them because they cant come home.

Wonder what TV reception is like on the Moon?

publiusr · 2005-12-02 12:36:11

On the contrary Austin. The point of going is going to stay. The cost is a cost that must be paid no matter what. In a communist economy, these things can be achieved based entirely on the idea that the Moon and Mars is territory that must be colonized. If the have to send one way and support a basic colony that is devoted to digging a huge underground complex so as to avoid shipping an otherwise vast number of materials just to build a city on the surface.
If you can support a thousand by digging a cave network and draging an airlock module into the mouth of the cave, rather than shipping a million tonnes of building, it is a lot simpler.
If all it takes to support the excavation team is a habitat that can be assembled in orbit by joining a few modules together and then landed in a good spot with some tunnel cutting equipment and an airlock that can be sealed into the stone, then that is how it works.

That makes perfect sense. More on Chinese launch vehicles at the http://www.astronautix.com site now updated once again.

Grypd · 2005-12-02 16:57:11

Mars is another example what happens when a country gets both Moons and lands and controls Olympus mons with the plan for use as an elevator site?
There may be some point to this on the moon, but I doubt it. Bases are pretty small and the moon is still very big. Definetly not on Mars. In this example, if you have a space elevator that streaches up many 1000s of Kilometers out into space, does it realy matter if a Mountian gives you another 10k or so?

The reason is the simple process, that of anchoring a cable. It is a massive order of magnitude simpler and as such cheaper to attach the cable to the side of a mountain than having to dig a hole 10km deep to provide strength enough. Also this cable being attached to a mountain means that cable cars can start higher up and also more out of the thin martian atmosphere though this will change as the planet is terraformed.

srmeaney · 2005-12-12 00:11:03

On the contrary Austin. The point of going is going to stay. The cost is a cost that must be paid no matter what. In a communist economy, these things can be achieved based entirely on the idea that the Moon and Mars is territory that must be colonized. If the have to send one way and support a basic colony that is devoted to digging a huge underground complex so as to avoid shipping an otherwise vast number of materials just to build a city on the surface.
If you can support a thousand by digging a cave network and draging an airlock module into the mouth of the cave, rather than shipping a million tonnes of building, it is a lot simpler.
If all it takes to support the excavation team is a habitat that can be assembled in orbit by joining a few modules together and then landed in a good spot with some tunnel cutting equipment and an airlock that can be sealed into the stone, then that is how it works.
If all you needed was food then maybe you would be fine just shipping food to support a large group of people doing manual labour on the moon. However, a moon base is going to need a sufficiently large life support system to support people which will include methods or production and recycling of water and oxygen air filtration. Thus china will not be able to make the colonization of the moon any easier by showing less concern for the people it sends into space.

Actually they made an interesting discovery about a hundred years ago that if you have sufficient plants , the Life form can use the plants as a life support system for co2 processing and soforth.
An underground Lunar city will require such vast agricultural concers that there will be eventually sufficient plant life to keep humans alive without too great a need for machines.
Mining allows the colony to liberate oxygen, carbon and other needed elements from the planetary crust. What wee need to know is how much nitrogen and hydrogen is locked up in the Lunar body and whether there are pockets of co2 and other gasses in the rock.

The moon will be far more useful because we can expand a human supporting cith through the entire moon until its like a deathstar. A Moon sized and 3 dimensional city. Once the Surface is enclosed by a planetwide colony devoted to mining and food production and all the other industries we will need, we can mine inward expanding the city towards the core.

A city on that scale devoted to mining and agriculture could support a threshold population of ten billion people.
It is easier to get there and we can send people one way to colonize

unfortunately to colonize the moon, we must first achieve space travel. unless we can send 100,000 people per year, there is no way we can get off this planet. It will come down to a couple of floating brains in a jar commanding robots to build what we could not.

Martin_Tristar · 2005-12-12 01:50:59

On the surface of the moon it would be better with droids and thus 100 people could control upwards of 1000 droids in droid teams. Then we could build larger infrastructure on the moon and also build space vessels for expanding humans in space. The long term objects of all space fairing nations are to get to Mars and the outer planets for the resources for expansion. With the advances in dual and quad core processors and the near completion of optical processors then we will have the processing power to have droids capable of some automonous functions and act as an expansion to the human team leader.

We need to apply our technology to get there first and hold the ground in future technology advancement " National Interests " always comes first for all countries and that includes the Americans, Europeans and Russians.

SpaceNut · 2005-12-14 14:47:09

Appears china is going for the moon though it will be a few years after we have gone back I hope.

China to Start Manned Lunar Program

Us current time table indicates a 2018 date while china appears to be shotting for 2017... :x

BWhite · 2005-12-14 21:03:57

Interesting. Beating NASA would generate massive publicity.

srmeaney · 2005-12-21 05:14:37

Now all we need is Russia to Aide Europe to get to the moon in 2016 and they can all be annoying.

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