New Mars Forums

Official discussion forum of The Mars Society and MarsNews.com

You are not logged in.

Announcement

Announcement: As a reader of NewMars forum, we have opportunities for you to assist with technical discussions in several initiatives underway. NewMars needs volunteers with appropriate education, skills, talent, motivation and generosity of spirit as a highly valued member. Write to newmarsmember * gmail.com to tell us about your ability's to help contribute to NewMars and become a registered member.

#1 2002-10-29 22:21:46

Earthfirst
Member
From: Phoenix Arizona
Registered: 2002-09-25
Posts: 343

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

It has come to my attention that the chinese are planing to expand there space program to include man mission, and with long term plans of sending man mission to the moon and mars. If the Chinese get to mars first and collization happens, than mars will become a communist Planet. Even worest both western democrats and Chinese could colize mars leading towards a marsen could war the could destory mans hope of terrifroming and colization. What threat do you think the Chinese space program posses to mars as a free planet. Rember China is run by communist dictories they would like nothing more than to expanded to mars and srew your dreams of mars as a free planet for man kind!!!!


I love plants!

Offline

#2 2002-10-29 23:20:57

Phobos
Member
Registered: 2002-01-02
Posts: 1,103

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

I have no problems with the Chinese colonizing parts of Mars.  Nothing would energize the US more than China getting cocky and claiming Mars as its sovereign territory!  So I say go China!  And everybody leave the guns at home! big_smile


To achieve the impossible you must attempt the absurd

Offline

#3 2002-10-29 23:52:55

nebob2
Member
Registered: 2002-10-06
Posts: 67
Website

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

I don't think the PRC could make it to Mars before the Russians or US if they tried. If they made a serious push, either NASA the ESA or both together would probly mount a crash program to get there first. China still has no manned space experience, no experience with HLV's, interplanetary probes, and very little experience in space in general. I would hate for them to go there first, have an accident, kill the crew, and discourage others from going.

If the Commies were there, I would sure bring some way for the crew to defend themselves to Mars, you could never be sure they wouldn't try something if it hit the fan. "Our reactor failed, we're taking yours"

Offline

#4 2002-10-30 09:10:42

Palomar
Member
From: USA
Registered: 2002-05-30
Posts: 9,734

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

*Considering how AIDS is going gang-busters all over China, I should think their health issues might be a bit more of a priority for them than their getting to Mars.  Of course, I could be wrong; here in the USA, stemming AIDS and HIV isn't nearly as important as getting people to stop smoking or losing a few extra pounds of weight.  Priorities, sheesh.

I actually hope to see humans land on Mars.  I don't care where they are from.  I would hope, however, than any ::permanent colonization/settlements:: would be headed up by freedom and liberty loving Westerners.

--Cindy


We all know those Venusians: Doing their hair in shock waves, smoking electrical coronas, wearing Van Allen belts and resting their tiny elbows on a Geiger counter...

--John Sladek (The New Apocrypha)

Offline

#5 2002-10-30 11:33:41

AltToWar
Member
Registered: 2002-09-28
Posts: 304

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

A while back, China launched an apollo-style capsule unmanned.

You know what they used to make their Heat Shield?  We used expensive and complicated Ceramics.

The chineese used resin soaked wood.


If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them. -Henry David Thoreau

Offline

#6 2002-10-30 19:49:30

Phobos
Member
Registered: 2002-01-02
Posts: 1,103

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

If the Commies were there, I would sure bring some way for the crew to defend themselves to Mars, you could never be sure they wouldn't try something if it hit the fan. "Our reactor failed, we're taking yours" [/quote:post_uid0]

You pose an interesting dilemna.  What would happen if there were two permanent bases on Mars each with a generator that barely had the capacity to power its respective base and one of the bases realized it was going to lose its energy source somehow?  In that kind of situation I can see where desperation might drive people to do unthinkable acts.  If there aren't enough resources to go around I think the first war on Mars could break out and probably a very short lived one at that.  It might be a good idea to keep bases far apart particularly if they belong to nations that aren't on very good relations.

I actually hope to see humans land on Mars.  I don't care where they are from.  I would hope, however, than any ::permanent colonization/settlements:: would be headed up by freedom and liberty loving Westerners.

--Cindy
[/quote:post_uid0]

I imagine you'll be hearing from Clark soon. smile  I think there's a possibility that there will be settlements of every political stripe on Mars if we ever get to the point where people can migrate to the planet.


To achieve the impossible you must attempt the absurd

Offline

#7 2002-10-31 01:13:50

AltToWar
Member
Registered: 2002-09-28
Posts: 304

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Yep, once the cost of going to mars comes down to that of a house, whole communities will be shipping off.  This disenfranchised have been the historic first settlers.

Expect to see Mormons, Jehova's Witnesses, Muslim Sects, and Othadox Jews to be the first groups to establish thriving colonies.


If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them. -Henry David Thoreau

Offline

#8 2002-10-31 11:43:49

Ranger_2833
Member
From: My secret bunker in Wyoming (o
Registered: 2002-09-12
Posts: 55
Website

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Looking at the Chinese capabilities, there is little chance that they could place a "taikonaut" into space in this decade on their own.  Yet the Chinese space program has been making tremendous leaps in the past years.  Is China smarter than we thought or are they getting outside help?

The answer is outside help, and guess where its coming from... The good old U.S. of A.  Many of the latest breakthroughs in Chinese space technology have been due stolen technology from our own space program, and even worse some of it was sold to them by our own leaders  for campaign money.

Much of the technology for developing space systems (for intance som of our most advanced supercomputers and CAD/CAM programs) were outright sold to the Chinese by a former President and his Vice for money to use on their reelection bid.  If you don't know who I mean, then you must not have paid very good attention to the news in the last few years.

Even worse was the sale of classified satellites and launch systems from Motorola, Hughes, amd Loral.  Also sold was missile technology from the forementioned administration including satellite control facilities, satellite image processing facilities, missile nose cone design, multiple warhead delivery systems, guidance systems, kick-motor designs and computer systems for ground and space control.

Have no illusions about the benevolence of the Chinese space program.  While the Chinese space program is run by civilians, the Army-run Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (COSTIND) is in charge of the researh and development of their space program.

From an article by Charles Smith:

"The Chinese army runs all space activities from its brand new mission control facility located 30 miles northwest of Beijing. The control center is packed with U.S.-made computers supplied during the Clinton administration.

The Chinese army multibillion-dollar Shenzhou manned mission scheduled for 2002 or 2003 illustrates the new aggressive space effort by China. China is currently training a dozen astronauts for the first flight.

The 17,000-lb. Shenzhou vehicle resembles a Russian Soyuz spacecraft but is larger and equipped with two sets of solar panels. China has tested unmanned versions of the Shenzhou twice, the first in November 1999 and the second in January 2001.

"My sense is that the manned launch will be a surprise," stated Jamestown Foundation's Richard Fisher. "I expect a few more unmanned Shenzhou launches before the manned launch."

China also recently signed a deal with Alcatel of France for a new 5-ton DFH-4 communications satellite. In addition, China is developing 15 new space satellites and has started two new joint space ventures with Iran and Pakistan.

The massive civil space buildup in China is mirrored by the Chinese army, which is currently upgrading its space-based assets as well. The new military space program includes reconnaissance, navigation, and weather and communications satellites designed specifically to support PLA combat operations.

In 2002, the Chinese military is scheduled to launch a new series of Global Positioning navigation satellites designed to help accurately guide its JL-2 submarine launched nuclear tipped missiles. Both the GPS satellites and the JL-2 SLBM missiles are slated to become operational by 2004."

For the full article Chinese Developing U.S.-Powered Missile, Space Programs

Another intresting one China's Space Program Driven by Military Ambitions

Don't even think for a moment that the Chinese presence in space will be peaceful, history has shown that the opposite is most certainly the case.  The strength and the very freedom of the Free World is theatened by any superiority of the Chinese in space. But who will stop them when the time comes?  If things continue as they have been, no one.

Better start learning Chinese...

Ni hao ma?


Just another American pissed off with the morons in charge...

Motto:  Ex logicus, intellegentia... Ex intellegentia, veritas.

Offline

#9 2002-10-31 12:27:03

Adrian
Moderator
From: London, United Kingdom
Registered: 2001-09-04
Posts: 642
Website

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

What on Earth are you talking about? The industrial and science capacity of China at present is far beyond that of the US when it first placed a man into space, so I have no doubt that they could send up a taikonaut - on their own - by the end of this decade.

However, China, sensing a good bargain, went and bought much of the Soyuz technology off Russia, which sped things up by no small amount (and also saved a lot of money). Chances are that they'll send someone up in the next two years.

As for computers, what's the problem with using US made computers? Everyone does - no doubt including all the countries in the Axis of Evil!

I'm not sure I agree with all of this scaremongering about China, either. There's no doubt that they're not the most benevolent of nations, but frankly they don't pose any military threat from space, not compared to the US who are literally decades ahead in technology.

Here's more information about Shenzhou, the Chinese spacecraft.


Editor of New Mars

Offline

#10 2002-10-31 13:43:14

Nida
Member
Registered: 2002-10-09
Posts: 20

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Nah, Jehovah Witnesses wouldn't want to go; not enough doors to knock on, besides, how would they get their WatchTower leaflets to hand out?? And then they'd probably piss off other settler's and get shoved out the air-lock. Jews & Muslims? Yea, let them go to Mars. Maybe those 2 morons will learn to GET ALONG FINALLY!!


happy holidays :0)

Offline

#11 2002-10-31 14:13:04

AltToWar
Member
Registered: 2002-09-28
Posts: 304

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Uhh... hello?

Your criticising China for have a military run space program?

Have you looked into NASA's charter lately?


If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them. -Henry David Thoreau

Offline

#12 2002-10-31 18:17:38

Phobos
Member
Registered: 2002-01-02
Posts: 1,103

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Yep, once the cost of going to mars comes down to that of a house, whole communities will be shipping off.  This disenfranchised have been the historic first settlers.
[/quote:post_uid0]

Sounds good to me.  The faster people get out into space to stay the less likely control freak governments on Earth will be able to keep us pigeonholed on this planet.

Looking at the Chinese capabilities, there is little chance that they could place a "taikonaut" into space in this decade on their own.  Yet the Chinese space program has been making tremendous leaps in the past years.  Is China smarter than we thought or are they getting outside help?
[/quote:post_uid0]

I agree with you that's it's strange to give your best computing technology to a country that literally hates your guts and it totally ideologically opposed to you.  That kind of technology only helps them to develop better nuclear weapons among other things which they could use against you.  But if thisarticle is correct, the Chinese were already designing manned spacecraft in 1978 and even had ambitions to build a Skylab type spacestation back then but quit for economic reasons.


To achieve the impossible you must attempt the absurd

Offline

#13 2002-11-01 08:27:44

Ranger_2833
Member
From: My secret bunker in Wyoming (o
Registered: 2002-09-12
Posts: 55
Website

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

What on Earth are you talking about? The industrial and science capacity of China at present is far beyond that of the US when it first placed a man into space, so I have no doubt that they could send up a taikonaut - on their own - by the end of this decade.[/quote:post_uid0]
Sorry for the confusion.  China will probably launch their first
Taikonaut sometime befor the end of the year if not early next year.  I was implying that if they had done it on their own without the "donations" of our polititians and the excellence of their intelligence service, it would not be completed in this decade.

Even our space program wouldn't have been as successful as it was if it weren't for the German scientists we captured or defected to us.

And on the American militirization of space, our goals aren't quite as extreme as the Chinese ones.  Manned military bases on the Moon, microvave weapons in Low Earth orbit, etc. All of which they hope to be in place by 2020, which coincidentally, is almost the same time frame that the military chiefs are calling for the "re-appropiation" of Taiwan.  Such advances might allow China to defeat America (who has promised to protect Taiwan in such an event), or at least draw us into a war of attrition, in a war that if started now would more than likely lead to theatre nuclear warfare.

The American military goals in space worry me far less than those of a China who has repeatedly called the conquest of Asia their destiny and birthright.

So I guess it all boils down to who you think is the lesser evil...


Just another American pissed off with the morons in charge...

Motto:  Ex logicus, intellegentia... Ex intellegentia, veritas.

Offline

#14 2002-11-01 10:07:15

turbo
Member
From: Jacksonville, Florida
Registered: 2002-08-01
Posts: 76

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Manned military bases on the moon may be great for intelligence gathering, but a satellite would be cheaper, harder to locate and destroy, and not need a logistics chain to keep going.

The LEO microwave weapons would only cause the US to go into full-scale production of one of the early Star Wars systems.  In short, an anti-satellite missile taken to high altitude by an F-15 and then launched.  Onboard systems or ground control would guide the missile to target.  A fragmentation warhead would do the job.

Japan's reliance on high technology would spark some kind of response to the orbital threat.  Ground-based lasers would stay within the "self-defense" provisions of their constitution.

Taikonaut all they want, join the orbital club, go to the moon, whatever.  I have no doubt everything will be closely monitored.

t

Offline

#15 2002-11-27 19:34:33

dicktice
Member
From: Nova Scotia, Canada
Registered: 2002-11-01
Posts: 1,764

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

What on Earth are you talking about? The industrial and science capacity of China at present is far beyond that of the US when it first placed a man into space, so I have no doubt that they could send up a taikonaut - on their own - by the end of this decade.

However, China, sensing a good bargain, went and bought much of the Soyuz technology off Russia, which sped things up by no small amount (and also saved a lot of money). Chances are that they'll send someone up in the next two years.

As for computers, what's the problem with using US made computers? Everyone does - no doubt including all the countries in the Axis of Evil!

I'm not sure I agree with all of this scaremongering about China, either. There's no doubt that they're not the most benevolent of nations, but frankly they don't pose any military threat from space, not compared to the US who are literally decades ahead in technology.

Here's more information about Shenzhou, the Chinese spacecraft.[/quote:post_uid0]
Made in China U.S. computers should be readily available....

Offline

#16 2002-12-02 10:49:32

nirgal
Member
Registered: 2002-05-14
Posts: 157

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Chinese Space Robot Seeks Employment On ISS

[i:post_uid6]"A robot arm made in China is trying to earn a placement on the International Space Station (ISS) and participate in the construction of the large multinational orbiting outpost."[/i:post_uid6]

Offline

#17 2002-12-02 11:49:46

RobertDyck
Moderator
From: Winnipeg, Canada
Registered: 2002-08-20
Posts: 6,380
Website

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

I don't begrudge China its space technology development, but the obvious reaction to this announcement of a robot arm has to be "Why?" The International Space Station already has Canadarm2 and it is operating. They could have tried to bid against Canada during the design stage, but Canadarm2 is up there now. Furthermore, the Chinese verions doesn't have the Mobile Remote Servicer Base System, which is also up there, or the Special Purpose Dexterous Manipulator (SPDM) that will be flown in 2005. Japan is planning to send a robot arm as part of Kibo. The arm on the Japanese Experiment Module (JEM) will simply be called the JEM Remote Manipulator System. I don't see a use for another arm.

Offline

#18 2002-12-02 12:34:43

Mark S
Member
Registered: 2002-04-11
Posts: 343

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Some thoughts on China's space program...

1. China will have a man in space by spring 2003, and I don't think anyone doubts that.  Shenzhou 5 may even be a two-man flight.

2.  In its early stages, the Chinese space program will be limited by funding shortages, but that will change as the program's propaganda value is realized and China becomes a superpower.

3.  The moon is China's logical goal within the next twenty years.  The only appropriate action for NASA, RSA, and ESA is to launch a competing moon effort in order to stimulate the stagnating space programs.

4. China will not militarize space unless the United States launches some kind of military spaceplane or space laser.  The military value of China's space program comes from "dual use" technologies--like maneuverable missile reentry vehicles and guidance systems.


"I'm not much of a 'hands-on' evil scientist."--Dr. Evil, "Goldmember"

Offline

#19 2002-12-02 12:50:14

Mark S
Member
Registered: 2002-04-11
Posts: 343

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Should China join the ISS consortium?

Right now, I'm leaning towards "yes."  The reason?  After 2006, we cannot buy more Soyuz capsules due to the Iran Nonproliferation Act.  Further, the Russian economy makes them a less-than-dependable partner.  But if we could get Shenzhou to replace the similar Soyuz, our problem would be solved.  Even the threat of Chinese involvement with ISS might be enough to make the Russians change their stance on Soyuz production and spreading nuclear technology to Iran.


"I'm not much of a 'hands-on' evil scientist."--Dr. Evil, "Goldmember"

Offline

#20 2002-12-02 13:35:11

Bill White
Member
Registered: 2001-09-09
Posts: 2,114

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Mark S writes:

After 2006, we cannot buy more Soyuz capsules due to the Iran Nonproliferation Act. [/quote:post_uid0]

Wow! I had sure missed this.

Anyway - a quick google found the following tidbit which may be of more general interest - the link is quoted extensievly as follows:

Rep. Ralph M. Hall [D-TX] made the following comments today after releasing an exchange of correspondence with NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe regarding NASA's planned termination of the X-38/CRV (Crew Return Vehicle) project:

"I am releasing these letters so that the space community will be better informed about NASA's plans and intentions. While many of the responses in the Administrator's letter are vague and cite ongoing reviews, there are several items of note in his letter:

* No quantitative analysis of the costs and benefits of X-38/CRV alternatives was conducted prior to the decision to terminate the program.

* 2010 is estimated to be the "earliest" availability date for a Crew Transfer Vehicle (CTV) to support crew return functions on the International Space Station.

* No estimates of the cost to develop and operate a CTV are provided.

* NASA has no plans to purchase Soyuz crew return vehicles from Russia. The letter does not address the limits on Russian cooperation imposed by the Iran Nonproliferation Act, nor does it describe how a crew return capability will be provided for either a 3-person or larger crew-size Station once the Russian obligation to provide Soyuz vehicles ends in 2006.
Recent reports notwithstanding, NASA is confident that Russia will continue to meet its commitments to supply Progress and Soyuz vehicles.

NASA now estimates the cost of a CRV fleet at $3 billion, which constitutes a massive increase from the $1.3-1.4 billion estimate consistently provided to Congress prior to the Administrator's termination announcement. NASA's new position is that a CRV would not be available until 2008, which appears to be due to OMB's decision last year to defer work on the program rather than any technical or management problems.

Mr. O'Keefe's June, 2002 announcement of the cancellation of the X-38/CRV program did not raise cost growth or schedule as factors in that decision. It seems clear to me that the new cost and schedule estimates for the CRV are not based on a thorough technical analysis, but rather on a desire to portray CTV development in a more favorable light.

Given the importance of an assured crew return capability for the Space Station, NASA needs to move expeditiously to undertake these analyses in a transparent manner and to clarify its plans to Congress and the space community."

The correspondence may be retrieved from the Science Committee Democratic website at: http://www.house.gov/science_democrats/ … rvltrs.pdf (in PDF format; the Adobe Acrobat reader will be needed). [/quote:post_uid0]

Offline

#21 2002-12-02 13:54:10

Bill White
Member
Registered: 2001-09-09
Posts: 2,114

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Right now, I'm leaning towards "yes."  The reason?  After 2006, we cannot buy more Soyuz capsules due to the Iran Nonproliferation Act.  Further, the Russian economy makes them a less-than-dependable partner.  But if we could get Shenzhou to replace the similar Soyuz, our problem would be solved.  Even the threat of Chinese involvement with ISS might be enough to make the Russians change their stance on Soyuz production and spreading nuclear technology to Iran.
[/quote:post_uid0]

Hmmm. . .

Cancelling the X-38 with the CTV replacement not being due until 2010 or later may well well give the US the political leverage needed to persuade the Russians not to sell nuclear technology to Iran. If we had deployed the X-38 then no one would dream of buying more Soyuz but without the X-38 the US can now trade additional Soyuz purchases for a Russian termination of nuclear technology sales to Iran.

Cool!

Offline

#22 2002-12-02 19:08:54

soph
Member
Registered: 2002-11-24
Posts: 1,492

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

i really doubt china has the capacity to build spaceships to mars.  they can hardly build jet planes.  otherwise, they wouldnt contract airbus and boeing to do it for them.  a robotic arm is a long way off from a mars mission.  so is a manned space mission.  we had men in space years before we even got to the moon. 

and the technology to get there isnt coming from us, unless they somehow get their hands on a stray ERV.

Offline

#23 2002-12-03 17:22:01

AltToWar
Member
Registered: 2002-09-28
Posts: 304

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

i really doubt china has the capacity to build spaceships to mars.  they can hardly build jet planes.  otherwise, they wouldnt contract airbus and boeing to do it for them.  a robotic arm is a long way off from a mars mission.  so is a manned space mission.  we had men in space years before we even got to the moon. 

and the technology to get there isnt coming from us, unless they somehow get their hands on a stray ERV.[/quote:post_uid0]
the only computer on the apollo mission was a glorified calculator.


If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them. -Henry David Thoreau

Offline

#24 2002-12-03 18:06:13

Phobos
Member
Registered: 2002-01-02
Posts: 1,103

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

the only computer on the apollo mission was a glorified calculator.

[/quote:post_uid0]

My TI-80 is probably a supercomputer compared to the comp on the Apollo spacecrafts. big_smile


To achieve the impossible you must attempt the absurd

Offline

#25 2002-12-14 14:57:43

Palomar
Member
From: USA
Registered: 2002-05-30
Posts: 9,734

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/2547461.stm

Nirgal may have already posted a very similar article; however, the link supplied by Nirgal won't open for me...so hopefully I'm not being redundant in posting this.  Sorry if I am; not intentional.

--Cindy


We all know those Venusians: Doing their hair in shock waves, smoking electrical coronas, wearing Van Allen belts and resting their tiny elbows on a Geiger counter...

--John Sladek (The New Apocrypha)

Offline

Board footer

Powered by FluxBB