Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

Grypd · 2005-08-17 03:54:48

So Red China on Red Mars not so much of a threat now.
You cant possibly draw that conclusion. The point of an unmanned Sample Vehicle is so you can send people on some other mission. If they have decided the moon is just an unmanned task, The colonization of Mars before any one else, could well be the entire focus of the Chinese Space Program.

Yes but it is the length between the misions that indicates that the Chinese do not have the capabilities or the money to spend. China is an expanding economy actually a very fast expanding economy and with also the build up of the Chinese military potential then there is a lot of pressure to where to spend the Yuan. Also in terms of resources both people and materials the Chinese space program will lose out to more immediate problems. Certainly China does not have the engineers and hi tech materials to do everything at once and so these engineers are placed where they are best needed. With the build up of Chinas aerospace industries these engineers will flock to these factories and design bureaus. With the build up of the Chinese military then they will need people to understand these new missiles and to develop them.

In short no China is not going straight to Mars there is no sign of the incredible Heavy lift needed and without the use of lunar materials or asteroidal materials and fuels there is no way China or anyone else can build a big enough space infrastructure to actually send colonists to Mars.

srmeaney · 2005-08-18 21:59:35

I suppose you are right. At the Moment China lacks the tech to Go to Mars. But I do however wish to point out that China will get there before any other Earth Nation.

The USA has a little stumbling block to its move to Mars. Government Must approve the expense. At twenty billion per person (Initial. Not including resupply) it is beyond the ability of any nation that does not value the Colonization of Space (or Mars) in its ability to support Human life.

About the best the private sector can hope is that the Big red Martian moon is a ball of Nickle-Iron that can be processed in near Zero-G by an unmanned Orbital Platform. A couple of Cubic Kilometres of Ni-Fe in Space, in a stable orbit, Should be good for: The outer Hull of a very big Space Vehicle?

Grypd · 2005-08-19 03:42:44

I suppose you are right. At the Moment China lacks the tech to Go to Mars. But I do however wish to point out that China will get there before any other Earth Nation.
The USA has a little stumbling block to its move to Mars. Government Must approve the expense. At twenty billion per person (Initial. Not including resupply) it is beyond the ability of any nation that does not value the Colonization of Space (or Mars) in its ability to support Human life.
About the best the private sector can hope is that the Big red Martian moon is a ball of Nickle-Iron that can be processed in near Zero-G by an unmanned Orbital Platform. A couple of Cubic Kilometres of Ni-Fe in Space, in a stable orbit, Should be good for: The outer Hull of a very big Space Vehicle?

Actually for the Martian Moons I hope they are chondrites. This basically means they are fuel stops for a colonisation effort in effect Mars central space refueling stations. A Colonisation effort to Mars is out of the question right now but when we can get the cost of flights to space reduced this will not allways be the case.

You use the figure of 20$billion a person to Mars but that is with the current launch technology and I assume a lot of supplies in that figure. But the day will come when we have a lunar base able to supply to GEO and the need to send a lot of people to earth orbit. When that happens we will see the development of space planes probably TSTO at first but since they are all reusable this will give a major reduction in the cost of getting to space. If we also use cyclers to transport people and infrastructure that is 100% reusable then we will find costs for a colonisation effort reducing dramatically down to about $200,000 a person sent to Mars at first and costs will keep reducing.

The costs will reduce when we have indigenous NIMF craft able to leave Mars to go to the fuel station where there will be a transport fueled by the water in either Deimos or Phobos to catch up to a cycler coming close and to take the passengers back to the Moon and transported down in the NIMF. On arrival in Mars previous settlers and crews will have established a place for these settlers to be housed and fed until they go to there new homes.

srmeaney · 2005-08-19 05:53:43

A Colonisation effort to Mars is out of the question right now but when we can get the cost of flights to space reduced this will not allways be the case.

Only for Earth Nations.

Unfortunately it is out of the Question for Earth nations. This is precisely why we must declare Space to have its own goverment. For twenty billion per citizen-colonist we could be training them and shipping them to Mars at a hundred thousand a year.

Yang Liwei Rocket · 2005-09-29 15:02:59

Shenzhou Circumlunar
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/shelunar.htm

Aldrin has suspected China might do this with the modified Chinese Shenzhou design
they have meet before - three generations of space travelers
http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/li … 40521.html
The meeting took a historic turn when Nelson announced the presence of a surprise visitor, astronaut Buzz Aldrin, the second human being on the moon.
The delegation was visibly excited to meet the U.S. space legend and Yang greeted Aldrin cordially. As one of the earliest humans who landed on the moon, you are a pioneer for a space man, said Yang.

publiusr · 2005-10-07 09:39:09

I just hope China puts off its plan to go to hydrogen Lox and kerosene lox. It would be less expensive to keep hypergolics for the time--and build a larger rocket like R-56.

Do a search for R-56 Monoblock at www.astronautix.com and look at the RD-270 engine.

Rxke · 2005-10-12 04:20:39

No comments whatsoever on the Chinese mission?

Another low for New Mars :cry:

SpaceNut · 2005-10-12 06:00:37

We all know that it is troubling to see Nasa's space progra faultering at this time while others are being successful. Even if by antique standards of equipment used.
What is the significance of this next China flight?

Satellite Spots China’s Manned Rocket

Western experts expect that this second Shenzhou flight will further shakeout spacecraft systems, life support hardware, and also hone piloting skills. A subsequent mission could involve spacewalking with Chinese space officials noting that a space station complex is also being planned.

This means they are about at the transition point of Nasa's mercury to gemini flights in terms of developement progress or the early 60's perhaps 1963.

Which if they are steady with moon hardware developement could at Nasa's past rate of getting us there mean in another 5 years they could launch there first moon mission. While in that time frame we will be playing catch up with the first manned missions on DaStick to LEO.

SpaceBull · 2005-10-12 06:36:02

...This means they are about at the transition point of Nasa's mercury to gemini flights in terms of developement progress or the early 60's perhaps 1963...

You cannot compare China's progress to where the US was in 1963, because China has the advantage of not being first. They already have access to detailed material on how to build a ship that can reach the moon, and actually also Mars. It took the West many years to develop the first memory chips for computers (RAM), but Taiwan quickly managed to copy and improve this original design. China can get there fast.

SpaceNut · 2005-10-12 06:40:41

Thou I did not state it, you have made my point that China can get there faster. Do we really want this to occur?

SpaceBull · 2005-10-12 06:47:12

Thou I did not state it, you have made my point that China can get there faster. Do we really want this to occur?

It was the Soviet satellite Sputnik that triggered to US to go to the Moon in the first place, and I do not believe that neither Europe nor the US will sit still if China suddenly reach Mars or the Moon. A new space race is what we need, and I wouldn't mind China triggering it.

Rxke · 2005-10-12 07:01:28

A new race to the moon could be the worst thing to happen.

Imagine botha China and USA ramping up their development schedules to get there first like in the first race.

There'll be lots of money wasted, another flag and footprints mission and long term plans in disarray...

Today, it looks like NASA at last has an expandable mission profile, so does China. If they have some common sense, they'd know they can't outcompete NASA (with their existing infrastructure, for starters) and even if they could, USA would only say: "there never was a race, we'v been there 40 years ago!"

OTOH, if China keeps building up at their own pace, it could get interesting, say every year a launch, the first couple of years, some dual launches, a budding station, their own Heavy-lifter...

SpaceNut · 2005-10-12 07:01:51

But do we really want another flag and foot prints race? I would hope not and that funding if it were to start for a race would continue for along while after it has been won. We need to do more to open up space to all of humanity and to make it afordable for those that would wish to go for the step of colonization.

Maybe the price that they would pay could be worked out by going and doing the work as needed to gain the foothold that we want for this to occur.

Edit
China's rocket launched

The Chinese have launched their second ever manned mission to space, sending a rocket carrying two astronauts into orbit.
The rocket, carrying the Shenzhou VI orbiter, blasted off this morning at 02:00 BST from Jiuquan in the Gobi desert.
Fei Junlong and Nie Haishen, the two astronauts (or 'taikonauts'), will spend five days in space performing a series of experiments.

The mission is being seen as a publicity stunt as much as a scientific undertaking, as it is being broadcast live on Chinese television to boost national pride and international prestige.
Sun Laiyan, chief of the China National Space Administration, has told national newspaper China Daily that there are plans to establish a permanent space laboratory and eventually launch unmanned missions to the moon.

SpaceBull · 2005-10-12 07:16:31

A new race to the moon could be the worst thing to happen.
...

The last space race was about flags and footprints, and repeating it would be like an anti-climax. Besides, the US have as you pointed out already been there. A new space race should be about getting permanent settlements, and I believe this is the kind of race that we really need.

SpaceNut · 2005-10-12 08:11:53

But colonization is not a sprinting race to which would shape up out of any effort to go to the moon or mars unless that other nation states that this would be there goal.

But what are China's long term goals?

Next goals: Permanent space lab, and moon

In the third stage, China plans to set up a permanent space lab, and build its space engineering system, which allows astronauts and scientists to shuttle between the Earth and space station to conduct large-scale scientific experiments, the space program office said in a statement.

So is it time when they look like they are capable of just this step to allow them access to the ISS or is there a real reason to stop this from occuring with the US or of its partners?

Work in progress:

the CASC has embarked on a new ``long march'' in upgrading launch rockets to meet demands for future spacecraft launches, including lift-off of a space station weighing more than 20 tons.
In a few years, the country's space program will be equipped with a new family of rockets, capable of covering a launch range of between 0.5 tons and 25 tons for near-earth orbits and 4-13 tons for geo-stationary transfer orbits, according to Jiang Yixian, a division director of the CASC.

Where they want to be:

The country inaugurated a lunar exploration center in Beijing in August, to oversee the launch of a moon orbiter in 2007, a lunar lander in 2012 and a third satellite designed to reach the moon and bring back soil samples for research in 2017.
If all goes according to plan, the two-ton lunar orbiter will blast off in 2007 to conduct a one-year mission of mapping the moon's surface and studying its mineral content, according to Luan Enjie, commander-in-chief of the country's lunar exploration program.

Grypd · 2005-10-12 08:48:30

A year or so ago there had been talk that the Chinese would launch a space shuttle type vehicle on a much upgraded long march rocket. But if you review the launch you will note that a lot of ice came of the longmarch as it took off. This could mean that the long march itself has little insulation. Could it launch a much heavier load than it currently does?

Im just trying to see what the Chinese capability is actually as there spoken aims and there actual capability cannot be taken as read. We know the Chinese are slow in launching but they make bigger steps than the the USSR and USA had done.

Will China go hell for leather and actually start designing a much heavier lifter than they currently have and for all intents have a similar launch capability as the USA plans with its new space initiave.

One thing that I do believe if there is a race to the Moon the USA will win

But China will still carry on as they are more into the long term view and a base on the Moon is on there long term plans.

SpaceNut · 2005-10-12 09:29:37

[url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9666995/]China launches two astronauts into space
Second manned spaceflight will be first to last longer than a day[/url]

Not just a redu but here are some interesting facts about this mission.

The official Xinhua News Agency said the two astronauts, or “taikonauts,” would take off their 22-pound (10-kilogram) spacesuits to travel back and forth between the two halves of their vessel — a re-entry capsule and an orbiter that will stay aloft after they land.

If they launch on there next mission a node that has multiple hatches they are on there way to building a small station.

Grypd · 2005-10-12 14:58:19

Is that not there next goal on the official plan they have previously announced. If it takes them 2 years to go to launching two craft to dock with each other then another two years to launch a small spacestation with a craft to dock with it this gives them a mission to the Moon about 2015 with the proposed lunar flyby at 2013.

Still it is likely not to follow this plan but interesting anyway.

Admiral_Ritt · 2005-10-12 16:19:34

Since the Chinese can hide Mishaps and non-critical Failures, they have
greater leeway in the speed at which they shake out their Space Operations.

Once they know their Spacecraft is Operational You can combine misson
Goals and go faster than Nasa/Russia. For example they may decide
to do space walk and do docking ops.

We will clearly see if we are in race if the Chinese ramp up to do missions
at 9 month intervals. By the looks of things it seems like they are waiting
on final check outs to Place their Space Craft Production on a faster track.

They still need a Lunar insertion/return Module + LEM. I guess if they use
a One Person lander both of those systems could be combined to form one
launch unit.

But Maybe the Chinese are dreaming of Greater Glory than just a Redo
of the LUNA show. Let's see how this "Space Station" is going to look,
Could it be a Spacial Trojan Horse aimed for Mars?

After all the chinese must know by now that there is limited science and
prestige to be gained from Space Station Operations.

Austin Stanley · 2005-10-13 01:21:45

I don't know how well they would be able to hide it. US (and probably Russian) spy satilities/radar stations can and will detect any major launches, track them, figure out the kind of rocket, and what happens to it. This is one of the byproducts of the cold war. It's impossible for the Chinese to launch any orbital craft without alerting us. Which they would probably do anyways so as to avoid any misunderstandings.

Now they could lie about who or what was on the craft, but covering up their fate isn't going to happen.

Grypd · 2005-10-13 08:23:58

I agree that China would have to use a much larger heavy lifter if it goes ahead with plans to go to the Moon and further afield. And certainly the infrastructure and possibly the construction of such a launch system should be visible to the satelites.

Also saying that it is access to space and the prestige and national pride that goes with it that China really craves. Having the capability to put a load of spy satelites into orbit does not hurt either especially with Chinas aim to be a superpower and to dominate the pacific.

One other point China had a lot of access to the work the Russians did with there space program and one of the reasons the Shenzou modules are larger than Soyuz is lessons learned about it especially the mistakes the USSR had made. This advantage is what has given them the biggest boost but now it is new territory and the true Chinese space program must come forward where everything has to be from China.

Stormrage · 2005-10-13 12:52:23

It was the Soviet satellite Sputnik that triggered to US to go to the Moon in the first place, and I do not believe that neither Europe nor the US will sit still if China suddenly reach Mars or the Moon. A new space race is what we need, and I wouldn't mind China triggering it.

The Space Race was triggered because the american public felt they should be the first the lowly reds. Now days 99% don't give a shit. And i doubt the Congress will give more money to NASA what with disasters called Iraq and New Orleans sucking up alot of money. Iraq costed $200 billion so far and rebuilding New Orleans may cost more.

SpaceNut · 2005-10-13 13:26:34

I know that I posted this before but some how it has disappeared...

Some differences in the Shenzhou from the first to the last:
Expert Expatiates on Differences between Six Shenzhou Spacecraft

evilcitizen · 2005-10-15 17:28:27

I would love to see China have a secret, low-budget Mars program, just to see the expression on Western faces when a smiling taikonaut is on CNN planting a Chinese flag on Martian soil (and probably a UN flag as well). lol

The only problem is, any Chinese Mars program that comes out of the blue might start some crazy space race that results in overspending and a poliltical firestorm, "We cannot allow a Mars program gap!"

It seems at the moment they're planning on doing a 20-ton space station and a couple lunar lander unmanned missions up until 2015-2017.

Personally, I would love to see several Mars settlements being jointly created around 2030-2040, with the US, Russia, and maybe ESA or China providing space vehicles and India, Canada, etc all coming along for the ride. We could potentially have several different joint settlements, would be pretty great I think.

Grypd · 2005-11-04 07:09:22

China plans for first manned mission to the Moon to land about 2017 the intention is Mineral and Helium 3 exploitation. Definitly looking to the long term here with the intentions of actually mining.

Reuters News Agency Article

New Mars Forums

Announcement

#76 2005-08-17 03:54:48

Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

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Re: Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first

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