How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

Dayton3 · 2004-11-27 09:53:07

The way I envisioned Mars Direct happening, there would be at minimum one unmanned test of the Ares launch vehicle, just to see what it could do.

Given that Ares could lift 280,000 lbs. into LEO, I think it would be a great opportunity to send up a couple of unmanned probes weighing in the 5,000 lb. range along with their propulsion stages to send to Uranus and Neptune.

How long would it take JPL to put together a couple of orbiters, atmospheric probes, and moon probes for each planet? Given that size wouldn't be that big a deal, I think they could do it fairly quickly.

I seem to remember that the the Magellan probe to Venus was basically a leftover Voyager probe (plus some Mariner equipment) equipped with solar panels instead of RPGs and that the ill fated Mars Observer was a cobbled together probe as well.

Dayton3 · 2004-11-29 18:50:15

Twenty people read this and not one replied?

I thought it was a dandy idea.

GCNRevenger · 2004-11-29 21:28:35

Depends on how much the probes cost. If they come out to be multibillion dollar investments, then the risk of putting them on the first prototype superbooster might be too great.

GraemeSkinner · 2004-11-30 01:36:55

It also depends on how good you want the probe to be, to have a better chance of success when it gets there the probe needs to be developed properly - and that takes time
Though by the time Ares is ready for a test launch a probe could likely be develop on time. However it would look in the general publics eyes as another major space failure if a multibillion dollar probe goes pop after being fitted to an untried rocket. So although it does seem wasteful I'd think an empty test launch would be better.

Graeme

djellison · 2004-11-30 05:49:14

It took > 10 years to design, build and test Cassini, and it was even longer for Galileo.

There's no reason to suggest it would be quicker, or cheaper ( i.e. >$2B )with probes to Uranus or Neptune

Doug

Palomar · 2004-11-30 07:00:32

*As far as Neptune goes, on Nov 26 I posted http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1442]in this thread seeing a tentative launch date of 2014 for the proposed Neptune orbiter with probes.

That's their projection of how long it's going to take, as far as Neptune is concerned. Although they tacked the words "or later" onto it as well (which we never like to read or hear).

--Cindy

Cobra Commander · 2004-11-30 07:53:15

In simple terms, "how long" is a function of "how much". If you're willing to spend obscene amounts of money you can speed things up considerably.

Enter the cold reality of hardware and rocketry. Launching anything out to Neptune is expensive, whether it be a billion dollar super-probe or a big tub of garbage, launch costs are essentially constant and will be a major factor. Therefore, if we're paying enough to get the thing out there, we're better served paying enough to make the probe itself worth as much as possible when it arrives. It's actually cheaper than building and launching a second cobbled-together substandard probe.

That, and travel time is considerable. Do we really want to wait a decade only to realize that maybe we should have put this instrument on it for an extra $100K?

Dayton3 · 2004-12-04 18:03:24

Launch costs are a huge part of putting unmanned probes on the way.

If we're going to test launch a huge, multi billion dollar to develop booster, it makes sense to me to take advantage of the lift capabilty

MarsDog · 2004-12-04 20:02:30

Instead of a probe, I would like to see a Space Hotel at one of the http://map.gsfc.nasa.gov/m_mm/ob_techor … l]Lagrange Points.

After several successful unmanned tests, parking space hotels at the L4 and L5 points; The astronauts could get on board and take one for a spin around Mars.

Trebuchet · 2004-12-05 13:54:30

Personally, I'd skip Uranus and head straight to Neptune. It's a more interesting planet, IMHO, and worth a look. But actually, I wouldn't send a probe there with a 'cheap throwaway' mission plan. If I were to send a Spare Parts Special to the outer solar system, I'd send it to Pluto, where even a crap probe will greatly increase out knowledge. Neptune (or Uranus for that matter) merits a well-designed big probe of the Galileo/Cassini type.

Stephen · 2004-12-05 18:20:12

*As far as Neptune goes, on Nov 26 I posted http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=1442]in this thread seeing a tentative launch date of 2014 for the proposed Neptune orbiter with probes.
That's their projection of how long it's going to take, as far as Neptune is concerned. Although they tacked the words "or later" onto it as well (which we never like to read or hear).

IMHO it probably *will* be later now that the Europa Orbiter's been scrapped in favour of JIMO. If JIMO succeeds a Neptune Orbiter will probably use the same technology, which is good news in the sense that it would allow a big heavy probe with all sorts of bells & whistles (like Triton landers and Neptune atmospheric probes). The downside is that other outer solar system orbiter missions will probably be pushed back. I notice that JIMO itself will not be launched until]http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/jimo/mission_launch.cfm]"until 2015 or later". If future orbiter missions into the outer solar system do use the JIMO technology they are not going to be launched until at least until after JIMO launches; and maybe a long while after if that technology must first prove itself on the prototype.

SpaceNut · 2004-12-05 22:44:09

I do not think the question means to gubber an unknown probe design together but to build an existing one that works. ie cassini or the Mars probes I think is what was the thought, but then again maybe i'm all wet.

thrawn20 · 2005-01-09 01:05:57

Neptune and Uranus need to be explored in more detail. Especially Triton and the many moons. Considering the voyagers took only a few blurry shots.

Im all for the new JIMO idea. I think its a great idea. But one thing we should NOT have scrapped is new horizons. At this rate wewillprobably never see pluto, Quoar, or Sedna :-( in our lifetimes

SpaceNut · 2005-01-10 06:50:10

I have not seen anything as of yet that would or has cancelled the mission to Pluto by the New Horizon Probe.

Yang Liwei Rocket · 2005-02-16 09:41:30

At this rate wewillprobably never see pluto, Quoar, or Sedna :-( in our lifetimes

very sad let's hope it doesn't go like this

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#1 2004-11-27 09:53:07

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#2 2004-11-29 18:50:15

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#3 2004-11-29 21:28:35

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#4 2004-11-30 01:36:55

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#5 2004-11-30 05:49:14

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#6 2004-11-30 07:00:32

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#7 2004-11-30 07:53:15

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#8 2004-12-04 18:03:24

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#9 2004-12-04 20:02:30

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#10 2004-12-05 13:54:30

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#11 2004-12-05 18:20:12

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#12 2004-12-05 22:44:09

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#13 2005-01-09 01:05:57

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#14 2005-01-10 06:50:10

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

#15 2005-02-16 09:41:30

Re: How Fast Could JPL Cobble Together Orbiters - and Probes For Uranus & Neptune?

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