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For Louis re your recent series!
Thanks for the quality and depth of your review of the "30 seconds" book!
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Ok, in the light of the above, some conclusions on a feasible way forward:
HOW A MARS ECONOMY MIGHT WORK
Starting conditions
This analysis assumes that it will be Space X who first take humans to Mars. Space X remains committed to rapid colonisation of Mars and eventual terraformation of the planet. Space X colonisation effort goes forward with minimal interference from the US Government but with strong support from NASA in terms of satellite surveys, communications with Earth and general information exchange.
It assumes that other potential colonisers of Mars have not yet established bases on Mars.
[I have avoided speculation as to whether confirmatory evidence of existing or pre-existing life forms have been discovered as that could be an absolute game-changer.]
After 30 Years
This analysis looks at how Mars’s economy might look after 30 years.
Dominant Economic Actors
The following might be the dominant economic actors:
1. Space X - this will dominate transit services.
2. Mars Corporation - this company will be the major player on the surface of Mars. It will be a consortium with Space X as majority shareholder, but involving other companies like Bigelow, Apple, Samsung and others.
3. Mars Governing Council - 30 years after the first humans land on Mars, there could already be a nascent government controlling tax revenue. The Governing Council includes a proportion of elected representatives.
4. Universities. A coalition of Universities will establish a research facility and post grad centre on Mars.
5. Space Agencies. NASA will be the chief space agency involved in Mars’s economic development but agencies from other countries like ESA, ISA, JAXA and others will be important.
The Mars Corporation accounts for 45% of GDP. Space X for 25% Mars Governing Council for 20% and others for 10%.
Orientation
The Mars economy will lean towards centralised planning as opposed to free market development. However, it will respect property rights and be seeking to develop free markets where appropriate.
The Mars Governing Council and Mars Corporation publish a joint “Mars Development Plan” - a rolling ten year plan which is revised every three years. “Partners” with the Mars Corporation (e.g. Space X ) sign up to the plan as part of their contractual obligations.
The Mars Corporation will follow an Amazon-style economic model, ploughing profits into further investment.
Financial Institutions
The Mars Governing Council has established the following:
Mars Central Bank (main function is to control operation of the Mars currency).
Mars Savings Bank (for Mars residents to deposit their earnings).
MIF: Mars Investment Fund (for private investors wishing to invest in the Mars economy).
MIF Bond - Pays 5% per annum on 50 year bonds
Mars Infrastructure Fund (a mix of MGC and private investors funding for longer term projects)
Currency
The Mars Governing Council has established a Mars Currency - the “Ares”. This currency is fixed at parity against the US Dollar, so 1 US Dollar buys 1 Ares. All transactions on Mars are via the Ares.
Monetary policy is designed to expand the economy rapidly. Quantitative easing is used by the Mars Central Bank to buy Mars MIF Bonds.
Population and Settlement Area
The population of Mars is 10,000 of whom 4,000 are long term residents with voting rights re the Mars Governing Council . Long term residents are those persons engaged on Mars on contracts longer than 3 years.
The main settlement is at Sagan City, located near the original settlement location in Amazonis Planitia.
There are some 200 mining outposts, research outposts, tourist locations (Olympus Mons and several locations around Valles Marieneris, plus the original Viking Lander Locations and the “death trails” of now defunct rovers). Spreading out from Sagan City there are five main road trails with some 60 branches).
Mars’s Diversified Economy
In line with the Mars Development Plan (MDP) Mars already has a very diversified economy including:
- Agriculture. 95% of food consumed is produced on Mars.
- Energy. 99% of energy used on Mars is produced on Mars.
- Mining. There are mining operations taking place at hundreds of locations, some with human involvement, some entirely dependent
on robots. Mining and atmospheric extraction supplies 95% of the colony’s needs.
- Chemicals and raw material processing.
- Manufacturing
- Construction
- Marketing, advertising and sponsorship.
- Transport
- Health
- Sports and leisure
- Retail sector
Space X - Mars
Provides transit services to and from Mars and Rocket Hopper services on Mars, manufactures rocket fuel and also operates the Spaceport Services.
2000 people per annum transit to Mars each year plus 1000 tons of cargo there and back.
Generating c $2 billion in revenue of which $200 million profit.
Mars Corporation
Provides habitation, life support, leisure facilities, surface transport, exploration missions, manufacturing, agricultural and food services, and curating science experiments.
It has several divisions: Construction, Transport, Energy Generation, Habitation and Life Support, Industry and Mining , Agriculture and Food and General Services.
Generates: $4 billion per annum
Revenue: From rent and hiring: $ 500 million
From curating science experiments: $750 million
From construction services: $750 million
From surface transport services: $500 million
From servicing exploration missions: $500 million
From industry and mining (inc water supply): $500 miillion
From operations management: $500 million
Mars Governing Council
(Comprising 1/3 Space X appointees, 1/3 Mars Corporation and 1/3 elected annually by vote of persons resident on Mars for longer than one year)
Provides governance of Mars including health and welfare, and social services. Has control over commercial sponsorship and TV etc rights.
Revenue:
Import Tax: $100 million
Export Tax: $100 million
Spaceport tax on individuals: $100 million
Financial transactions Tax: $50 million
Property occupation licence payments: $100 million
Mars Sales tax: $100 million
Sale of Mars Bonds: $1000 million
Commercial sponsorship/marketing licensing - $700 million
TV and film licensing/photographic rights/publishing - $300 million
Total: $2,600 million
Expenditure:
Interest on bonds (bonds issued totalling $5 billion to date): $250 million
Mars Investment Fund: $500 million
Mars Settlement Fund: $1000 million
Central administration and planning - $20 million
Health and Welfare - $100 million (200 health staff)
Leisure and culture - $300 million
Transportation - $ 200 million
Communications - $200 million
Safety and Security - $100 million
Personal Income
Average wages on Mars are c $100,000 per annum. Up to 50% can be repatriated to Earth.
Taxation
There is no income tax. Taxes are levied on imports, exports, rocket fuel production, financial transactions, energy generation, personal wealth, retail sales, tourism and Spaceport arrivals,
Pricing
Prices are generally set by the Mars Corporation. Pricing policy is used to limit import of luxury goods from Earth and encourage development on Mars ISRU industries.
Food prices are set to encourage health eating and limited demand for more complex food products.
Basic cafeterias provide free food for all Mars Corporation and MGC employees. Other residents on Mars are charged a basic fee which may be covered by their employer e.g. Universities. There are several restaurants which charge for meals.
Capital Investment
Capital investment flows mainly through the Mars Investment Fund (MIF) and the Mars Settlement Fund (MSF) and through direct investment by the Mars Corporation, Space X, Universities, Space Agencies and the Mars Governing Council.
These agencies investment in new manufacturing centres, new habitation, new Earth-like-Environments, sports and leisure facilities, new roadtrails, hotels and so on.
NASA for instance has ploughed $1 billion over ten years into the NASA Mars Research Centre and has plans to build its own Spaceport.
Significant new investment projects over the next few years include the Mars Observatory, Mars Biological Research Centre, Mars CO2 Sublimation Engine, Mars Museum, the Robotics Centre, the Mars Polar Centre and the Southern Hemisphere Roadtrail.
Settlement Policy
Persons destined to work for the Mars Corporation or Mars Governing Council have their fare paid for by the Mars Settlement Fund. Persons and cargo for other companies, universities and so on are charged - currently $2 million per person.
Most settlers are engaged on 2-5 years contracts.
Rule of Law and Property Rights
The Mars Governing Council issues Directives which have the force of law, back up by penalties including fines, percentage salary attachments and obligatory return (to Earth).
Although the Outer Space Treaty is still in operation, the MGC issues land occupation licences to companies and individuals on terms varying between 1 and 50 years. These licences require productive use of land in line with the Mars Development Plan, including zoning restrictions.
Health services are provided free of charge.
There is a legal framework for employment rights and a minimum living wage.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Not a brilliant video but one which unusually covers quite a lot of the issues touched on here in this thread:
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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For Louis re #23 re value of paper in certain situations
This post is about the value of paper, but not about preserving paper for everything where it is used in 2020.
I changed from hard copy news print to an all digital format, and am happy with the result, although I do miss the paper that could be used for protecting the floor from paint.
Today, I found a need to make a list of tasks that are necessary but not something I am comfortable doing and would rather procrastinate. I printed the list so I have the physical crutch to lean on while dealing with the reluctance.
I use felt tip erasable pen notes on plastic playing card sized tablets for most short term notes, but those just don't feel right for this situation.
I'll bet you have not eliminated paper from your life altogether, and your imagination may be leading you astray when you contemplate how you would live on Mars, if you were there.
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Ok, in the light of the above, some conclusions on a feasible way forward:
Mars’s Diversified Economy
In line with the Mars Development Plan (MDP) Mars already has a very diversified economy including:
- Agriculture. 95% of food consumed is produced on Mars.
- Energy. 99% of energy used on Mars is produced on Mars.
- Mining. There are mining operations taking place at hundreds of locations, some with human involvement, some entirely dependent
on robots. Mining and atmospheric extraction supplies 95% of the colony’s needs.
- Chemicals and raw material processing.
- Manufacturing
- Construction
- Marketing, advertising and sponsorship.
- Transport
- Health
- Sports and leisure
- Retail sector
For sports and leisure, of the four franchised sports in North American plus association football, baseball likely faced difficulties. With less dense atmosphere on Mars and about a quarter of the Earth's gravity. A hit baseball on Mars can travel farther and be faster and much more difficult for outfielder to catch it, to the point that inside the park homerun can appear as frequently as a double. I dont know but basketball, association football and ice-hockey focuses on the object on the field, the ball or the puck, so same situations as baseball. Or the ball or puck needs to be reconditioned for Mars for them and other competitive sports that focuses on the object, such as tennis, badminton, table-tennis, hockey, cricket.
North American Football could prosper but need more protective football player gears.
Team sports that focuses on the object rolling or sliding on the ground can take the lead in their team sports field.. For example, giving the low average outdoor temperature w/r/t Earth (-60oC), curling could be played on sheets of ice. With lower gravity, a hand push on Mars travels farther than the same force on Earth. Ice-hockey on the other hand needs a reconfigured puck.
Last edited by knightdepaix (2020-01-18 11:13:59)
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Re YouTube video in post #53 above.
The video claimed building above ground is possible, but would require a thick layer of water for radiation shielding, and transporting that water and materials from Earth would be extremely expensive. This obviously ignores everything we've talked about here. Mars has ice, you would harvest water from the surface of Mars. And other construction materials would be manufactured in-situ from local resources. For example bricks/mortar/cement made from Mars rocks/dirt. Mars white sand melted to make glass. Robert Zubrin wrote in his books how to make simple petro-chemicals from CO2 from Mars atmosphere and hydrogen from electrolysis of water. Those simple petro-chemicals could be built-up to form larger chemicals like plastic. I posted a brief description how to make common plastics. So send relatively small tools then "boot-strap" the economy by building up larger facilities.
The video also mentioned Jamestown: in May 1607, 104 people set foot onto Jamestown, by January only 38 were still alive. I keep using St John's Newfoundland as the example. In 1497 John Cabot discovered Newfoundland, a natural bay that could be used as a natural harbour, and the Grand Banks. He returned to England later that summer. When fishermen heard of the Grand Banks, they immediately went to harvest. They set up a camp on the shores of that bay, filleting and preserving the fish for transport. That fishing camp on St John's bay became a town, then a city. Today the city of St John's is the capital of the province of Newfoundland. Colonies set up by government failed: Roanoke, Popham Colony, and various French and Spanish colonies. But St John's was built by businessmen, the first European settlement since the Vikings and persists to this day. I think a good model for Mars.
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There business model thou requires a living based on an export to make funds to keep drawing more colonists, materials and money to pay for the work.
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For RobertDyck re #56
Thank you for the tip about your having written about Newfoundland before ... I asked FluxBB to find all posts with Newfoundland and RobertDyck and received 25 back. These do not include those lost earlier during the great crash.
I started reading from the most recent, and soon realized there is a short course worth of material there, so I'll try to fit it into my schedule.
This series (like so may by other long term authors here) illustrates the strength and weakness of the forum environment.
You had to repeat yourself because you were often addressing new members (or so it seemed to me). On the other hand, it seemed (to me as I read) that with each telling you added interesting little details, such as the British admiral who mysteriously disappeared at sea after collecting taxes at force of arms.
To make life easier for me, I'll add a search term to quickly find this post:
SearchTerm:Newfoundland Author:RobertDyck
I would like to add that I liked the illustrations you found of oil derricks. Those are on my mind these days, as Lizard King from luf.org tries to encourage me to look into finding oil derricks for the wind-turbine-at-sea idea, instead of the far more difficult region around Antarctica.
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I think labour is way too scarce on Mars for American Football to be encouraged. But something like basketball or badminton would be good - little chance of serious injury. For basketball you might need to raise the basket and/or make the ball heavier. Volleyball might be another good sport for Mars.
For outdoor activities, I imagine that motor rallies and other motor sports could be popular. Maybe we will see something like small pedal- powered (pressurised) vehicles - the cycle mechanism will be internal but might drive wheels. The low wind force and near vacuum on Mars might make pedal powered vehicles more practical that they might otherwise seem.
There would be opportunities for creating indoor lakes or water courses where canoeing and kayaking could be enjoyed for leisure or competitive sports.
louis wrote:Ok, in the light of the above, some conclusions on a feasible way forward:
Mars’s Diversified Economy
In line with the Mars Development Plan (MDP) Mars already has a very diversified economy including:
- Agriculture. 95% of food consumed is produced on Mars.
- Energy. 99% of energy used on Mars is produced on Mars.
- Mining. There are mining operations taking place at hundreds of locations, some with human involvement, some entirely dependent
on robots. Mining and atmospheric extraction supplies 95% of the colony’s needs.
- Chemicals and raw material processing.
- Manufacturing
- Construction
- Marketing, advertising and sponsorship.
- Transport
- Health
- Sports and leisure
- Retail sectorFor sports and leisure, of the four franchised sports in North American plus association football, baseball likely faced difficulties. With less dense atmosphere on Mars and about a quarter of the Earth's gravity. A hit baseball on Mars can travel farther and be faster and much more difficult for outfielder to catch it, to the point that inside the park homerun can appear as frequently as a double. I dont know but basketball, association football and ice-hockey focuses on the object on the field, the ball or the puck, so same situations as baseball. Or the ball or puck needs to be reconditioned for Mars for them and other competitive sports that focuses on the object, such as tennis, badminton, table-tennis, hockey, cricket.
North American Football could prosper but need more protective football player gears.
Team sports that focuses on the object rolling or sliding on the ground can take the lead in their team sports field.. For example, giving the low average outdoor temperature w/r/t Earth (-60oC), curling could be played on sheets of ice. With lower gravity, a hand push on Mars travels farther than the same force on Earth. Ice-hockey on the other hand needs a reconfigured puck.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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For Louis re topic ...
Earlier in this topic we've exchanged views on paper. Recently I offered an example of a situation where paper filled a psychological need.
Today I printed a work plan for a set of activities I'm hoping to complete this afternoon.
Your point of view about paper is still on my mind, so I thought about what I had just done. I composed a work plan using a computer, and sent the work plan to an output device. The particular output device for this particular print used a laser beam to energize spots on a metal drum, which attracted toner that was subsequently pressed onto a sheet of clean paper.
The impression I'll be looking at in a few minutes cannot be erased, except by destroying the paper, bleaching the toner and carrying out whatever additional steps are needed to create a new sheet of blank paper.
However, it may not be necessary for humans to continue this ancient practice.
A quick Google search turned up a number of electronic devices that accept computer generated text and display images on a flat screen.
What I am imagining now is a sheet of simulated paper that contains pixels that can be set to black or reset to white.
To my knowledge, such a technology does not exist anywhere on Earth today, but since a market already exists for electronic devices costing $100 or more to perform the function of a sheet of paper, it seems reasonable to suppose some (probably young) entrepreneur will figure out how to create a thin sheet of flexible material that can receive instructions from a computer output device to set pixels black or white.
Should such a kind of "paper" become available, it would reduce the need for paper used for temporary information conveyance.
I just thought of a drawback from a criminal justice point of view .... like burning a piece of paper to eliminate incriminating evidence, a re-writable piece of "electronic paper" could be reset to blank, and there would be no residual memory of the previous pixel state.
Interesting !!!
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Yes E Paper is an alternative to conventional paper or computer screens that could eventually be used on Mars. The technology seems to be advancing, albeit slowly:
https://thefutureofthings.com/3081-the- … nic-paper/
I liked this description of how it might work:
"Q: How do you see the future of e-paper?
A: I like to tell people that the holy grail of e-paper will be embodied as a cylindrical tube, about 1 centimeter in diameter and 15 to 20 centimeters long, that a person can comfortably carry in his or her pocket. The tube will contain a tightly rolled sheet of e-paper that can be spooled out of a slit in the tube as a flat sheet, for reading, and stored again at the touch of a button. Information will be downloaded—there will be simple user interface—from an overhead satellite, a cell phone network, or an internal memory chip. This document reader will be used for e-mail, the Internet, books downloaded from a global digital library that is currently under construction, technical manuals, newspapers (perhaps in larger format), magazines, and so forth, anywhere on the planet. It will cost less than $100, and nearly everyone will have one!"
That might well give us the best of both worlds - the utility of paper without its costs and use of labour.
For Louis re topic ...
Earlier in this topic we've exchanged views on paper. Recently I offered an example of a situation where paper filled a psychological need.
Today I printed a work plan for a set of activities I'm hoping to complete this afternoon.
Your point of view about paper is still on my mind, so I thought about what I had just done. I composed a work plan using a computer, and sent the work plan to an output device. The particular output device for this particular print used a laser beam to energize spots on a metal drum, which attracted toner that was subsequently pressed onto a sheet of clean paper.
The impression I'll be looking at in a few minutes cannot be erased, except by destroying the paper, bleaching the toner and carrying out whatever additional steps are needed to create a new sheet of blank paper.
However, it may not be necessary for humans to continue this ancient practice.
A quick Google search turned up a number of electronic devices that accept computer generated text and display images on a flat screen.
What I am imagining now is a sheet of simulated paper that contains pixels that can be set to black or reset to white.
To my knowledge, such a technology does not exist anywhere on Earth today, but since a market already exists for electronic devices costing $100 or more to perform the function of a sheet of paper, it seems reasonable to suppose some (probably young) entrepreneur will figure out how to create a thin sheet of flexible material that can receive instructions from a computer output device to set pixels black or white.
Should such a kind of "paper" become available, it would reduce the need for paper used for temporary information conveyance.
I just thought of a drawback from a criminal justice point of view .... like burning a piece of paper to eliminate incriminating evidence, a re-writable piece of "electronic paper" could be reset to blank, and there would be no residual memory of the previous pixel state.
Interesting !!!
(th)
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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For Louis re #61
Thanks for the interesting feedback!
If there is an opportunity to influence inventors who run across this topic, I'd like to put in a bid for a larger version, able to display a full sized news paper two page layout. The "really far out" version would contain pixels able to display in color.
The 1920x1080 video display I am using now is satisfactory in every respect, except that it is not portable.
I'd like to see the functional equivalent of that display in the format you described in your post.
Your example did not include details about how the scroll-out display would be controlled, but as technology advances, voice control seems possible, as well as touch of "buttons" on the tube from which the scroll is drawn.
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Its hard to get e-content these days to display at a readable level of paper when the screen size is from an inch sq to 3 x 4 in size. pixel density can only go so far as to keep what you see sharp as the eye can only resolve to about the thinkness of a hair unaided. Did that research back in 2003 or so when I was working on a design for an electronics display for use on a gun for the military.
Back in the old early days of a handheld devices with a styles one would write what you needed for later on it not the mini ipads or other but there was a different name for it but it eludes me. We now have digital voice recorders that when connected to computer programs for voice to writen word will make it so that we can have a transcript of the conversational input.
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Sports: I envision something outside. The reason hockey is popular in Canada is it's something you can do in winter. With an MCP suit, you have a lot more dexterity and safety.
The book "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" by Robert A Heinlein included a large air reservoir. It was used to fly with strap-on wings. That would work in 1/6 gravity, but I doubt it would in 38% gravity. However, that made me think the water storage reservoir could be used as a swimming pool. In another post I asked if water filters could remove pool chlorine; a member answered yes.
Basketball would require a gymnasium, so only when there's a large town. And jumping/throwing would be quite different in 38% gravity. Just making the ball heave isn't enough. That would reduce the velocity a ball could leave you hand, but not the arc through the air. Basically yes, the net would have to be a lot higher.
One Apollo mission an astronaut brought a golf club and ball. Incredible stroke in 1/6 G. In 38% G it wouldn't be that far, but each fareway would have to be very long. And no "rough", instead a giant (planet size) sand trap around each fareway. Would golf work in a desert?
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E-paper: good idea. Realize dedicated Kindle e-readers already use e-paper. Look up Kindle Paperwhite. Still available on Amazon, but I don't see them in stores any more. You can download a Kindle app for your smartphone.
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I could see ice hockey (maybe a non-contact version, to protect the players, who will be valuable members of the labour force on Mars) being played if we had advanced MCP suits. Maybe they would play 15 mins quarters after which, each time, they recharge their air.
I am not so sure a gym needs a "large town". We know that regular exercise is vital to maintaining muscle and bone in <1G so I expect a gym to be there from Sol 1. A small one to begin with obviously! But the gyms will get progressively bigger. Initially you will play around one hoop. But eventually proper basketball matches will be played.
A basketball court is 28.65 m long and 15.24 m wide. That sort of area can be covered even in the early settlement period.
Sports: I envision something outside. The reason hockey is popular in Canada is it's something you can do in winter. With an MCP suit, you have a lot more dexterity and safety.
The book "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" by Robert A Heinlein included a large air reservoir. It was used to fly with strap-on wings. That would work in 1/6 gravity, but I doubt it would in 38% gravity. However, that made me think the water storage reservoir could be used as a swimming pool. In another post I asked if water filters could remove pool chlorine; a member answered yes.
Basketball would require a gymnasium, so only when there's a large town. And jumping/throwing would be quite different in 38% gravity. Just making the ball heave isn't enough. That would reduce the velocity a ball could leave you hand, but not the arc through the air. Basically yes, the net would have to be a lot higher.
One Apollo mission an astronaut brought a golf club and ball. Incredible stroke in 1/6 G. In 38% G it wouldn't be that far, but each fareway would have to be very long. And no "rough", instead a giant (planet size) sand trap around each fareway. Would golf work in a desert?
Last edited by louis (2020-01-19 19:46:14)
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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For RobertDyck re #65
Thanks for the reminder of the Kindle eReader with simulated paper (white background with black pixels).
That is an impressive device, and it certainly shows the direction I am looking. However, what I have in mind is a passive display in a flexible sheet that handles much like a piece of paper. Unlike a piece of traditional paper, which accepts toner from a metal roller in a baking process (in the laser printer implementation), the paper I have in mind would accept commands to "permanently" set the reflectivity of each pixel from 100% to 0% or vice versa, and then not change until electronically instructed to change. In some respects it would be similar to memory in WORM chips of days gone by, which held their setting when power was removed. I suppose USB sticks must use a similar technology, because they hold their bit settings until a computer changes them (Flash memory).
So (in a sense) these flexible sheets would be (nearly) two dimensional arrays of optically reflective memory.
I have an elderly Kindle type eReader that holds a permanent display when the power is off. although I am not CERTAIN that a small trickle current may not be holding the pixels in their state of absorbing or reflecting ambient light.
In any case, I am not talking about a piece of hardware such as an eReader.
This subtopic of Louis main topic is about Louis prediction that paper would not be needed on Mars, and I am offering reasons why that might not be what people want, regardless of what Louis may imagine from the comfort of his (probably) paper filled home in London.
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For Louis re topic, and specifically landing methods ...
The NASA researcher whose bio is given at the link below just wrote an email reply to my inquiry about the NASA Phobos Tether proposal.
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 21#p168221
In his email, he offered opinions about relative costs, while at the same time encouraging the members of this forum to develop ideas for a proposal that might be submitted to NASA for study.
I am enlisting you (and your interest in economics) to compare and contrast the competing proposals to see if you can seen any signs of which might be most cost effective in the long run.
By long run, I am taking into account the waste incurred by the various approaches.
For example, the proposal to use extended atmospheric deceleration requires heat shielding, and that material requires replacement or refurbishment if it is to be re-used, or it may be discarded entirely, as has been done by NASA with all previous landings.
GW Johnson is working on a very interesting (to me at least) idea for landing Void's "bubbles", if the size and mass of the "bubbles" and their trajectory are carefully managed.
I am working on a proposal that is mentioned by Hop, in a blog post reported by Terraformer, to extend a tether toward Mars from Phobos, to facilitate safe, secure, reliable and cost-effective delivery of people and cargo the surface of Mars.
The services of an economist would appear appropriate for evaluation of these competing proposals and others.
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Not sure I'm the guy for the job, TA. For one thing I am phobic about Phobos proposals! Never really felt sympathetic towards them. I think there's a reason why Musk hasn't gone down that road. I don't think I could put my partisanship on this subject to one side.
There may eventually be a role for Phobos to play. It could certainly form part of the tourism itinerary. There might be a role for it acting as a staging post for human passenger flights, if you could produce rocket fuel there, but you can have docking in LMO in any case so it will be of marginal utility I would say.
If tether technology can work, it could certainly be part of a such a system, but we are a long, long way from that and a few decades down the line we might be able to have laser or microwave propulsion systems to get people and goods to LMO.
For Louis re topic, and specifically landing methods ...
The NASA researcher whose bio is given at the link below just wrote an email reply to my inquiry about the NASA Phobos Tether proposal.
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 21#p168221
In his email, he offered opinions about relative costs, while at the same time encouraging the members of this forum to develop ideas for a proposal that might be submitted to NASA for study.
I am enlisting you (and your interest in economics) to compare and contrast the competing proposals to see if you can seen any signs of which might be most cost effective in the long run.
By long run, I am taking into account the waste incurred by the various approaches.
For example, the proposal to use extended atmospheric deceleration requires heat shielding, and that material requires replacement or refurbishment if it is to be re-used, or it may be discarded entirely, as has been done by NASA with all previous landings.
GW Johnson is working on a very interesting (to me at least) idea for landing Void's "bubbles", if the size and mass of the "bubbles" and their trajectory are carefully managed.
I am working on a proposal that is mentioned by Hop, in a blog post reported by Terraformer, to extend a tether toward Mars from Phobos, to facilitate safe, secure, reliable and cost-effective delivery of people and cargo the surface of Mars.
The services of an economist would appear appropriate for evaluation of these competing proposals and others.
(th)
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For SpaceNut ... there are four topics that contain the word "economics" in the title...
This seemed the best fit .... the article itself is about the Earth, but readers of this forum can probably extrapolate to Mars ...
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/must … 09116.html
Joshua Jahani
Wed, September 8, 2021, 10:11 AM
In 1989, Tim Berners-Lee invented the World Wide Web (popularizing the modern internet). He didn’t protect the technology because he wanted it to benefit us all. Three decades later, most of the power -- and a lot of the profits -- of the internet are in the hands of a few tech billionaires, and much of the early promise of the internet remains unfulfilled.
Space travel is not just hype or the plaything of billionaires. It is the final frontier, both physically and economically.
If we want it to be a success, we should learn from our successes and failures back on Earth and apply them to space now.
That means subsidies, support, regulation and safety. These things are important on Earth, but in space they are absolutely essential.
I read this as sensible comments upon how space industry needs to be both promoted and regulated.
(th)
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Theory and Economics of MARS and MOON Colonization
https://eujournal.org/index.php/esj/article/view/10056
NASA Offers Up to $200 Million to Help Push New Technologies to Market.
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa … to-market/
Lunar Economy: From Vision to Reality
https://interactive.satellitetoday.com/ … o-reality/
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The last post in this topic by Louis was entered in 2022 .... in recent times Calliban posted a link to a story about deflation in China. The quote below is of a conversation with Google's Gemini about the dual sides of the coin: inflation and deflation. It includes explanation that a modest inflation allows manufacturers and other employers to enjoy reduced labor cost that employees don't notice. A reasonable action for a government faced with deflation would be to reduce wages and pensions by an amount exactly equal to deflation, but Gemini points out the lowering of wages would have to be done uniformly, and in a nation like the United States, that would be difficult if not impossible to implement.In China, with it's orientation toward a command economy (with capitalism allowed to flourish under supervision) that might be possible.
Conversation with Gemini
Economics Deflation vs Inflation - Hello Gemini! Thank you (again) for your help with numerous previous requests. Some have been easy for you, and some are more difficult. Today's question has baffled the human race for thousands of years. Only the brightest humans seem able to deal with it, but plenty of humans delude themselves into thinking they understand it. The question arises in the context of a report about possible deflation in China. In the United States, the Federal Reserve tries to hold inflation to 2%, and unemployment below some modest percentage such as 3% or 4%. It seems to me that inflation can be managed by lifting wages and pensions by the same amount as inflation, and that the same concept might work in a nation where deflation is occurring. In other words, perhaps lowering wages and pensions by the amount of deflation would provide for stability. It seems to me that as humans improve processes of manufacture, the natural result should be lowered cost and therefore lower sales price.
***You're touching upon some fundamental and indeed complex aspects of economics, particularly concerning inflation, deflation, and their management. It's true that these concepts have challenged economists for a long time, and there's no single "easy" answer. Let's break down your points.
Inflation
Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and consequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling.The 2% Target: Central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve target a modest inflation rate (often around 2%) for several reasons:
Avoids Deflation: A small positive inflation rate provides a buffer against deflation.
Flexibility for Monetary Policy: It gives the central bank room to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy during downturns, as nominal interest rates cannot go below zero.
Encourages Spending/Investment: Predictable, low inflation encourages consumers to spend and businesses to invest, as money held today will be slightly less valuable tomorrow, but not so much that it erodes savings dramatically.
Wage Adjustments: It allows for "real" (inflation-adjusted) wage cuts without nominal wage cuts, which can be difficult to implement due to sticky wages (people resist nominal pay cuts).
Lifting Wages and Pensions: Your idea of lifting wages and pensions by the same amount as inflation is sound in theory for maintaining purchasing power. This is often seen in cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) for pensions and some union contracts.
Challenge: The challenge lies in ensuring that all wages and pensions increase uniformly and simultaneously with inflation. In reality, wage growth often lags price increases, leading to a temporary reduction in real purchasing power for many. Also, not all incomes are indexed to inflation.
Deflation
Deflation is the opposite of inflation – it's a general decline in prices for goods and services, resulting in an increase in the purchasing power of currency.The Problem with Deflation: While lower prices might sound good on the surface, widespread and sustained deflation is generally considered more harmful to an economy than moderate inflation.
Reduced Spending: Consumers tend to postpone purchases, anticipating even lower prices in the future. This reduces demand, which can lead to lower production.
Increased Real Debt Burden: If prices fall, the value of money increases, making fixed debt obligations (like mortgages or business loans) more burdensome in real terms. A dollar borrowed today is worth more tomorrow, making it harder to pay back. For example, if you borrowed $100,000 to buy a house, and deflation causes your income to fall, that $100,000 debt becomes a larger portion of your reduced income.
Business Losses and Unemployment: Falling prices reduce corporate revenues and profits, which can lead to cuts in production, layoffs, and increased unemployment. This can create a deflationary spiral: falling prices lead to less spending, less production, more unemployment, which leads to even less spending and further price drops.
Monetary Policy Impotence: In a deflationary environment, central banks find it very difficult to stimulate the economy. Interest rates can't go below zero (or effectively, very slightly below zero), so their primary tool for stimulating demand (cutting rates) becomes ineffective.
Lowering Wages and Pensions in Deflation: Your suggestion of lowering wages and pensions by the amount of deflation is also theoretically consistent for maintaining real value.
Practicality and Resistance: However, implementing nominal wage cuts is extremely difficult in practice. People strongly resist reductions in their paychecks, even if the purchasing power remains the same due to falling prices. This "nominal wage rigidity" is a significant hurdle. Businesses attempting to cut wages across the board could face labor unrest, reduced morale, and difficulty attracting and retaining talent.
Social and Political Impact: Such measures could have severe social and political consequences, leading to widespread discontent.
Productivity and Prices
You're absolutely right that improvements in manufacturing processes and technology naturally lead to increased efficiency, lower production costs, and potentially lower sales prices. This is a form of "good deflation" or "productivity-driven deflation."Technological Deflation vs. Demand-Driven Deflation:
Productivity-Driven Deflation: When prices fall due to increased efficiency and supply (e.g., computers becoming cheaper and more powerful over time), it's generally beneficial. It means consumers can buy more with the same amount of money.
Demand-Driven Deflation: When prices fall due to a persistent lack of demand in the economy, this is the problematic kind that central banks try to avoid.
The challenge for central banks is to distinguish between these two types and manage the overall price level to avoid a destructive deflationary spiral while still allowing for the benefits of technological progress.
China and Deflation
You're absolutely correct to point out that China has been grappling with deflationary pressures. Unlike many Western economies that have battled inflation in recent years, China has seen consumer prices fall, or at best, rise very modestly.Here are some concrete numbers and reasons for China's deflation:
Consumer Price Index (CPI): China's CPI has often been in negative territory or close to zero. For example, in July 2023, China's CPI fell 0.3% year-over-year, marking its first decline in two years. While it might have edged up slightly in some months (e.g., 0.1% in August 2023, 0.1% in June 2025), the overall trend has been very subdued. This contrasts sharply with many Western economies that saw CPI increases of 5% to 10% or more in recent years.
Producer Price Index (PPI): This measures prices at the factory gate, and China's PPI has been in negative territory for an extended period. For instance, in May 2025, China's PPI was down 3.3% year-over-year. This indicates that factories are getting less for their goods, reflecting overcapacity and weak demand.
Youth Unemployment: A significant factor contributing to weak domestic demand is high unemployment, particularly among youth. In June 2023, China's youth unemployment rate reached a record 21.3%. After this, the government stopped releasing these figures, which raised concerns about the actual situation. High unemployment reduces consumer confidence and spending.
Real Estate Slump: China's massive property sector has been in a significant downturn since 2021, with major developers defaulting. Home prices have been declining in many cities, and this has a substantial impact on household wealth and confidence. For example, prices have fallen on average by about 20-30% since the housing peak in August 2021. This directly affects consumer willingness to spend, as a large portion of Chinese household wealth is tied to real estate.
Weak Domestic Demand: Despite the post-pandemic reopening, China's economic rebound has been weaker than expected. Factors include low consumer confidence, high precautionary savings by households (partially due to concerns about healthcare and pensions), and a government policy focus that historically emphasized production and investment over direct consumer stimulus.
Overcapacity and Exporting Deflation: China has invested heavily in manufacturing capacity. When domestic demand is weak, Chinese companies often export their excess production at lower prices to find buyers. This has led to falling export prices, contributing to global disinflation. For example, Chinese export prices fell by 6% from April to December 2023, with significant declines in sectors like machinery and electrical equipment.
Government Debt: Local government debt in China is substantial, estimated to be around 100 trillion yuan (US$13 trillion), including that of urban investment companies. This limits the ability of local governments to stimulate demand through increased spending.
In essence, China's deflation is a complex mix of structural issues (like the over-reliance on investment and exports, and a less developed social safety net leading to high savings rates), cyclical factors (post-pandemic demand weakness), and policy choices. While your observation about productivity leading to lower costs is generally true (and does play a role in some areas of "good deflation" in China), the current deflationary environment in China is more concerning because it's largely driven by insufficient aggregate demand and structural imbalances, leading to a risk of a deflationary spiral.
Sources
Thank you for this thoughtful reply. It seems to me you have tried to collect insights from recent times as well as history, and present them in as balanced a way as may be possible. I'll post this conversation on a small international forum, where I hope it will stimulate thoughtful questions or perhaps even insights that might help others.
***
It's my absolute pleasure to provide what I hope is a helpful and balanced perspective on such a critical economic topic. I'm glad you found the insights useful, drawing from both historical economic principles and recent global trends.Your intention to share this on an international forum is excellent! Economics, especially at this macro level, benefits immensely from diverse perspectives and open discussion. Different countries and cultures experience and react to inflation and deflation in unique ways, and the insights generated from such a forum could indeed be invaluable.
Please do let me know if any further questions or points of clarification arise from your discussions on the forum. I'm always here to delve deeper into these complex issues.
(th)
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This post is a follow up to #72...
My interest here is in the possibility of directing that 21% unemployed and highly educated population for space expansion...
I have completed the post and am back to share with you some thoughts that came to mind as I was preparing the delivery. I was struck by your observation/report that youth unemployment in China may be as high as 21%. I find this amazing since China is reported to have a shortage of young people as a percentage of the population. In addition, China is reported to have a robust system of education, so young people leaving the education system should be well prepared to take on any opportunity that might exist. Perhaps the material needs of the population are being met? If that is the case, the huge population of unemployed youth is available for cannon fodder for a war. This is unhealthy on many counts. An alternative is to expand into space at a high rate.
***You've hit on some incredibly insightful and concerning points that are at the heart of China's current economic and social challenges. The intersection of youth unemployment, demographics, and national aspirations is a potent mix.
Let's unpack your observations:
China's Youth Unemployment Paradox
You're absolutely right to be struck by the high youth unemployment rate (which officially hit 21.3% in June 2023 before the data release was paused, and some unofficial estimates suggest it's even higher). This seems paradoxical given:Demographic Shift: China is indeed facing a looming demographic crisis, with a rapidly aging population and a shrinking workforce due to decades of the one-child policy. This would suggest a shortage of young labor, not a surplus.
Robust Education System: China has made enormous strides in expanding access to higher education, producing millions of university graduates each year. One would expect these graduates to be well-equipped for the modern economy.
So, what's going on? It's a complex interplay of several factors:
Structural Mismatch: This is arguably the biggest issue. While China is producing a large number of university graduates, the economy isn't generating enough "white-collar" jobs that match their skills and aspirations. Many graduates are highly educated but lack the specific practical experience or vocational skills demanded by industries that are growing. There's an oversupply of generalist degrees and an undersupply of specialized, in-demand technical skills.
Changing Preferences: Modern Chinese youth, often from single-child families and with higher living standards than previous generations, are increasingly unwilling to take on blue-collar manufacturing or service jobs that are perceived as less prestigious, physically demanding, or lower paying. They aspire to stable, well-remunerated "good jobs," often in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) or the civil service, which are highly competitive.
Government Crackdowns and Economic Slowdown:
Tech Sector: Regulatory tightening on major tech companies (e.g., Tencent, Alibaba) severely impacted job creation in a sector that was a significant employer of young graduates.
Real Estate: The ongoing crisis in the property sector, a massive part of China's economy, has led to a sharp reduction in related jobs.
Private Education: A crackdown on the once-booming private tutoring industry decimated another large employer of educated youth.
SME Weakness: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are crucial for job creation in most economies, were heavily hit by COVID-19 lockdowns and the broader economic slowdown, and many have struggled to recover or expand.
COVID-19 Impact: The prolonged "Zero-COVID" policies and their disruptive economic effects created a challenging job market, especially for new graduates entering the workforce during that period.
Information Asymmetry/Lack of Experience: Employers often seek candidates with experience, putting fresh graduates at a disadvantage. There can also be a disconnect between the skills taught in universities and the actual needs of employers.
"Involution" (内卷 - nèijuǎn): This term describes the intense, often self-defeating competition within a system where efforts don't lead to proportional rewards. In the job market, it means an abundance of highly qualified candidates competing for limited desirable positions, leading to burnout, anxiety, and a feeling of futility among young people.
"Lying Flat" (躺平 - tǎng píng) and "Full-Time Children": These social phenomena reflect the frustration. "Lying flat" is a rejection of the relentless pursuit of traditional success, opting for a less ambitious, more relaxed lifestyle. "Full-time children" are young adults who, unable to find suitable employment, live at home supported by their parents. This highlights the strong family support networks but also the economic stagnation for a segment of the youth.
Implications and Your Concerns
Your concerns about the implications of this large pool of unemployed but educated youth are very astute:"Cannon Fodder for War": This is a grave concern that some analysts indeed raise. A large, disillusioned, and underutilized young population can be a source of social instability. Historically, governments facing internal pressures or seeking to divert attention from domestic problems have sometimes resorted to external conflicts. While there's no direct evidence China is planning this due to unemployment, it's a theoretical risk factor in any nation with a large, frustrated youth bulge. A strong, nationalist narrative could potentially channel this energy.
"Unhealthy on Many Counts": Absolutely. Beyond the potential for conflict, high youth unemployment is detrimental to:
Economic Growth: It represents a colossal waste of human capital and potential productivity. These young people are not contributing to consumption, innovation, or tax revenue.
Social Stability: Frustration, disillusionment, and a lack of economic opportunity can lead to social unrest, mental health issues, and a general loss of confidence in the future, eroding the "Chinese Dream."
Innovation and Competitiveness: If the brightest young minds can't find challenging and fulfilling work, it can stifle innovation and long-term economic dynamism.
Demographic Reinforcement: If young people are struggling financially, they are less likely to marry and have children, exacerbating China's already severe demographic challenges.
"Material Needs Being Met?"
This is a subtle but important point. While China has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty and living standards have dramatically improved for many, the aspirations of the educated youth have also risen significantly. They are not just seeking to avoid starvation; they are seeking careers commensurate with their education, social status, and the expectations placed upon them by their families and society. When these expectations are unmet, even if basic material needs are covered, it leads to profound dissatisfaction. Many young people are still highly dependent on their parents, which isn't the independent, successful life they were educated for."Expand into Space at a High Rate"
This is a fascinating and creative suggestion! You're thinking about large-scale, ambitious projects that could absorb significant labor, stimulate technological advancement, and provide a sense of national purpose, akin to the Apollo program in the US.Potential Benefits:
Job Creation: A rapidly expanding space program would indeed require a massive workforce, from engineers and scientists to manufacturing and logistics personnel.
Technological Spillovers: Investment in space naturally leads to breakthroughs in materials science, robotics, AI, computing, and other high-tech fields, which can then benefit the broader economy.
National Prestige and Purpose: A successful and ambitious space program can unite a nation, provide a clear national goal, and project soft power globally. It could be a powerful narrative to counter internal disillusionment.
Resource Acquisition: Long-term, space could offer access to new resources, though this is far in the future.
Challenges/Considerations:
Scale: Even a "high rate" of space expansion might not be enough to absorb the millions of unemployed youth, especially given the specialized skills often required for advanced aerospace work. While there would be a pyramid of jobs, many would still need re-training.
Cost: Space programs are incredibly expensive. While China has the financial resources, the sheer scale required to significantly impact unemployment would be astronomical.
Time Horizon: Building out a massive space infrastructure takes decades. The immediate unemployment problem needs more immediate solutions.
Skills Mismatch (again): While some highly educated youth would be perfectly suited, many would still require significant retraining for these highly technical roles.
China is investing heavily in its space program (e.g., lunar missions, space station, Mars exploration). It's a key part of its long-term strategic ambitions. However, it's likely viewed as a component of national power and technological leadership rather than a primary solution to short-term mass unemployment.
In summary, your observations highlight critical vulnerabilities in China's current economic model and social contract. The challenge for Beijing is to find ways to restructure its economy to generate more desirable jobs, manage the aspirations of its youth, and channel their energy into productive rather than destructive avenues. Your idea about space expansion, while perhaps not a silver bullet for all unemployment, points towards the kind of ambitious, future-oriented projects that could indeed play a role in providing purpose and opportunity.
***Thank you for another thoughtful review of a challenging set of questions and observations. I will place this most recent exchange in a series. Since the forum where these posts will appear is dedicated to space expansion, your assessment of the difficulty of harnessing the Chinese work force will surely be of interest.
***You're most welcome! I'm glad this exchange can contribute to the discussions on your space expansion forum. It's precisely these kinds of interdisciplinary connections – between economics, demographics, social stability, and ambitious national projects like space exploration – that lead to the most profound insights.
Your observation about the potential for space expansion to absorb some of China's workforce is particularly relevant to a forum dedicated to the topic. While it's not a complete solution for the deep structural issues underlying China's youth unemployment, it's certainly a compelling thought experiment and a valid consideration for long-term national strategy.
Here's a brief recap of how those points might resonate with your forum's audience, emphasizing the difficulties but also the potential:
The Challenge:
Scale of the Problem: Even China's massive and growing space budget (estimated at around US 18.15 billion in 2023, though likely higher with opaque military funding) is still a fraction of what would be needed to absorb millions of unemployed youth directly. For context, NASA′s budget is around US 25-30 billion, and it employs a relatively specialized workforce.
Skills Mismatch: The vast majority of jobs in advanced space programs require highly specialized STEM skills (engineers, scientists, highly skilled technicians). While China produces many university graduates, there's a significant mismatch with the specific skills demanded by the high-tech space industry versus the general humanities or social science degrees many pursue. Retraining on this scale is a monumental undertaking.
Automation and Efficiency: Paradoxically, the very efficiency and technological advancement that drive space exploration also mean that each dollar invested generates fewer direct jobs than it might in less automated, labor-intensive industries.
Pace of Development: Even aggressive space expansion is a long-term endeavor. The immediate need for jobs for current graduates is pressing.
The Potential (and why it's still relevant to the forum):
Indirect Job Creation: A robust space program stimulates innovation across a wide range of industries (materials, AI, robotics, software, advanced manufacturing). These technological spillovers can create new industries and jobs in the broader economy over time.
National Purpose and Prestige: As discussed, a successful space program can be a powerful symbol of national strength and a source of collective pride. This can help alleviate some of the social dissatisfaction stemming from economic stagnation, even if it doesn't directly employ everyone.
"Future-Proofing" the Workforce: Investing in highly technical fields like space exploration encourages the development of a highly skilled workforce that is adaptable to future technological shifts, addressing the "skills mismatch" over the long run.
Addressing the "Involution" Mindset: For a generation facing intense competition for limited "good" jobs, a clear, ambitious national goal like leading in space could offer a new avenue for aspiration and purpose, potentially reducing the "lying flat" phenomenon.
Strategic Imperative: Regardless of the unemployment issue, China views space as a critical domain for national security, economic competitiveness, and global influence. Therefore, investment will continue and likely grow.
Your forum's members will likely appreciate this nuanced view: that while space expansion isn't a quick fix for millions of unemployed youth, it remains a vital strategic pursuit for China that carries significant indirect benefits and could, in the very long term, help shape a more innovative and purposeful economy.
I'm keen to hear any feedback or further questions that arise from your discussions!
(th)
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