Economics of Mars

tahanson43206 · 2019-12-28 20:01:53

For Louis re your recent series!

Thanks for the quality and depth of your review of the "30 seconds" book!

(th)

louis · 2019-12-30 20:00:16

Ok, in the light of the above, some conclusions on a feasible way forward:

HOW A MARS ECONOMY MIGHT WORK

Starting conditions

This analysis assumes that it will be Space X who first take humans to Mars. Space X remains committed to rapid colonisation of Mars and eventual terraformation of the planet. Space X colonisation effort goes forward with minimal interference from the US Government but with strong support from NASA in terms of satellite surveys, communications with Earth and general information exchange.
It assumes that other potential colonisers of Mars have not yet established bases on Mars.

[I have avoided speculation as to whether confirmatory evidence of existing or pre-existing life forms have been discovered as that could be an absolute game-changer.]

After 30 Years

This analysis looks at how Mars’s economy might look after 30 years.

Dominant Economic Actors

The following might be the dominant economic actors:

1. Space X - this will dominate transit services.
2. Mars Corporation - this company will be the major player on the surface of Mars. It will be a consortium with Space X as majority shareholder, but involving other companies like Bigelow, Apple, Samsung and others.
3. Mars Governing Council - 30 years after the first humans land on Mars, there could already be a nascent government controlling tax revenue. The Governing Council includes a proportion of elected representatives.
4. Universities. A coalition of Universities will establish a research facility and post grad centre on Mars.
5. Space Agencies. NASA will be the chief space agency involved in Mars’s economic development but agencies from other countries like ESA, ISA, JAXA and others will be important.

The Mars Corporation accounts for 45% of GDP. Space X for 25% Mars Governing Council for 20% and others for 10%.

Orientation

The Mars economy will lean towards centralised planning as opposed to free market development. However, it will respect property rights and be seeking to develop free markets where appropriate.

The Mars Governing Council and Mars Corporation publish a joint “Mars Development Plan” - a rolling ten year plan which is revised every three years. “Partners” with the Mars Corporation (e.g. Space X ) sign up to the plan as part of their contractual obligations.

The Mars Corporation will follow an Amazon-style economic model, ploughing profits into further investment.

Financial Institutions

The Mars Governing Council has established the following:

Mars Central Bank (main function is to control operation of the Mars currency).

Mars Savings Bank (for Mars residents to deposit their earnings).

MIF: Mars Investment Fund (for private investors wishing to invest in the Mars economy).

MIF Bond - Pays 5% per annum on 50 year bonds

Mars Infrastructure Fund (a mix of MGC and private investors funding for longer term projects)

Currency

The Mars Governing Council has established a Mars Currency - the “Ares”. This currency is fixed at parity against the US Dollar, so 1 US Dollar buys 1 Ares. All transactions on Mars are via the Ares.

Monetary policy is designed to expand the economy rapidly. Quantitative easing is used by the Mars Central Bank to buy Mars MIF Bonds.

Population and Settlement Area

The population of Mars is 10,000 of whom 4,000 are long term residents with voting rights re the Mars Governing Council . Long term residents are those persons engaged on Mars on contracts longer than 3 years.

The main settlement is at Sagan City, located near the original settlement location in Amazonis Planitia.

There are some 200 mining outposts, research outposts, tourist locations (Olympus Mons and several locations around Valles Marieneris, plus the original Viking Lander Locations and the “death trails” of now defunct rovers). Spreading out from Sagan City there are five main road trails with some 60 branches).

Mars’s Diversified Economy

In line with the Mars Development Plan (MDP) Mars already has a very diversified economy including:

- Agriculture. 95% of food consumed is produced on Mars.
- Energy. 99% of energy used on Mars is produced on Mars.
- Mining. There are mining operations taking place at hundreds of locations, some with human involvement, some entirely dependent
on robots. Mining and atmospheric extraction supplies 95% of the colony’s needs.
- Chemicals and raw material processing.
- Manufacturing
- Construction
- Marketing, advertising and sponsorship.
- Transport
- Health
- Sports and leisure
- Retail sector

Space X - Mars

Provides transit services to and from Mars and Rocket Hopper services on Mars, manufactures rocket fuel and also operates the Spaceport Services.

2000 people per annum transit to Mars each year plus 1000 tons of cargo there and back.

Generating c $2 billion in revenue of which $200 million profit.

Mars Corporation

Provides habitation, life support, leisure facilities, surface transport, exploration missions, manufacturing, agricultural and food services, and curating science experiments.

It has several divisions: Construction, Transport, Energy Generation, Habitation and Life Support, Industry and Mining , Agriculture and Food and General Services.

Generates: $4 billion per annum

Revenue: From rent and hiring: $ 500 million
From curating science experiments: $750 million
From construction services: $750 million
From surface transport services: $500 million
From servicing exploration missions: $500 million
From industry and mining (inc water supply): $500 miillion
From operations management: $500 million

Mars Governing Council

(Comprising 1/3 Space X appointees, 1/3 Mars Corporation and 1/3 elected annually by vote of persons resident on Mars for longer than one year)

Provides governance of Mars including health and welfare, and social services. Has control over commercial sponsorship and TV etc rights.

Revenue:

Import Tax: $100 million
Export Tax: $100 million
Spaceport tax on individuals: $100 million
Financial transactions Tax: $50 million
Property occupation licence payments: $100 million
Mars Sales tax: $100 million
Sale of Mars Bonds: $1000 million
Commercial sponsorship/marketing licensing - $700 million
TV and film licensing/photographic rights/publishing - $300 million
Total: $2,600 million

Expenditure:

Interest on bonds (bonds issued totalling $5 billion to date): $250 million
Mars Investment Fund: $500 million
Mars Settlement Fund: $1000 million
Central administration and planning - $20 million
Health and Welfare - $100 million (200 health staff)
Leisure and culture - $300 million
Transportation - $ 200 million
Communications - $200 million
Safety and Security - $100 million

Personal Income

Average wages on Mars are c $100,000 per annum. Up to 50% can be repatriated to Earth.

Taxation

There is no income tax. Taxes are levied on imports, exports, rocket fuel production, financial transactions, energy generation, personal wealth, retail sales, tourism and Spaceport arrivals,

Pricing

Prices are generally set by the Mars Corporation. Pricing policy is used to limit import of luxury goods from Earth and encourage development on Mars ISRU industries.

Food prices are set to encourage health eating and limited demand for more complex food products.

Basic cafeterias provide free food for all Mars Corporation and MGC employees. Other residents on Mars are charged a basic fee which may be covered by their employer e.g. Universities. There are several restaurants which charge for meals.

Capital Investment

Capital investment flows mainly through the Mars Investment Fund (MIF) and the Mars Settlement Fund (MSF) and through direct investment by the Mars Corporation, Space X, Universities, Space Agencies and the Mars Governing Council.

These agencies investment in new manufacturing centres, new habitation, new Earth-like-Environments, sports and leisure facilities, new roadtrails, hotels and so on.

NASA for instance has ploughed $1 billion over ten years into the NASA Mars Research Centre and has plans to build its own Spaceport.
Significant new investment projects over the next few years include the Mars Observatory, Mars Biological Research Centre, Mars CO2 Sublimation Engine, Mars Museum, the Robotics Centre, the Mars Polar Centre and the Southern Hemisphere Roadtrail.

Settlement Policy

Persons destined to work for the Mars Corporation or Mars Governing Council have their fare paid for by the Mars Settlement Fund. Persons and cargo for other companies, universities and so on are charged - currently $2 million per person.

Most settlers are engaged on 2-5 years contracts.

Rule of Law and Property Rights

The Mars Governing Council issues Directives which have the force of law, back up by penalties including fines, percentage salary attachments and obligatory return (to Earth).

Although the Outer Space Treaty is still in operation, the MGC issues land occupation licences to companies and individuals on terms varying between 1 and 50 years. These licences require productive use of land in line with the Mars Development Plan, including zoning restrictions.

Health services are provided free of charge.

There is a legal framework for employment rights and a minimum living wage.

louis · 2019-12-31 17:04:11

Not a brilliant video but one which unusually covers quite a lot of the issues touched on here in this thread:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lo2fjKHNXVA

tahanson43206 · 2020-01-18 09:31:18

For Louis re #23 re value of paper in certain situations

This post is about the value of paper, but not about preserving paper for everything where it is used in 2020.

I changed from hard copy news print to an all digital format, and am happy with the result, although I do miss the paper that could be used for protecting the floor from paint.

Today, I found a need to make a list of tasks that are necessary but not something I am comfortable doing and would rather procrastinate. I printed the list so I have the physical crutch to lean on while dealing with the reluctance.

I use felt tip erasable pen notes on plastic playing card sized tablets for most short term notes, but those just don't feel right for this situation.

I'll bet you have not eliminated paper from your life altogether, and your imagination may be leading you astray when you contemplate how you would live on Mars, if you were there.

(th)

knightdepaix · 2020-01-18 11:13:00

louis wrote:

Ok, in the light of the above, some conclusions on a feasible way forward:
Mars’s Diversified Economy
In line with the Mars Development Plan (MDP) Mars already has a very diversified economy including:
- Agriculture. 95% of food consumed is produced on Mars.
- Energy. 99% of energy used on Mars is produced on Mars.
- Mining. There are mining operations taking place at hundreds of locations, some with human involvement, some entirely dependent
on robots. Mining and atmospheric extraction supplies 95% of the colony’s needs.
- Chemicals and raw material processing.
- Manufacturing
- Construction
- Marketing, advertising and sponsorship.
- Transport
- Health
- Sports and leisure
- Retail sector

For sports and leisure, of the four franchised sports in North American plus association football, baseball likely faced difficulties. With less dense atmosphere on Mars and about a quarter of the Earth's gravity. A hit baseball on Mars can travel farther and be faster and much more difficult for outfielder to catch it, to the point that inside the park homerun can appear as frequently as a double. I dont know but basketball, association football and ice-hockey focuses on the object on the field, the ball or the puck, so same situations as baseball. Or the ball or puck needs to be reconditioned for Mars for them and other competitive sports that focuses on the object, such as tennis, badminton, table-tennis, hockey, cricket.
North American Football could prosper but need more protective football player gears.
Team sports that focuses on the object rolling or sliding on the ground can take the lead in their team sports field.. For example, giving the low average outdoor temperature w/r/t Earth (-60oC), curling could be played on sheets of ice. With lower gravity, a hand push on Mars travels farther than the same force on Earth. Ice-hockey on the other hand needs a reconfigured puck.

Last edited by knightdepaix (2020-01-18 11:13:59)

RobertDyck · 2020-01-18 20:24:45

Re YouTube video in post #53 above.

The video claimed building above ground is possible, but would require a thick layer of water for radiation shielding, and transporting that water and materials from Earth would be extremely expensive. This obviously ignores everything we've talked about here. Mars has ice, you would harvest water from the surface of Mars. And other construction materials would be manufactured in-situ from local resources. For example bricks/mortar/cement made from Mars rocks/dirt. Mars white sand melted to make glass. Robert Zubrin wrote in his books how to make simple petro-chemicals from CO2 from Mars atmosphere and hydrogen from electrolysis of water. Those simple petro-chemicals could be built-up to form larger chemicals like plastic. I posted a brief description how to make common plastics. So send relatively small tools then "boot-strap" the economy by building up larger facilities.

The video also mentioned Jamestown: in May 1607, 104 people set foot onto Jamestown, by January only 38 were still alive. I keep using St John's Newfoundland as the example. In 1497 John Cabot discovered Newfoundland, a natural bay that could be used as a natural harbour, and the Grand Banks. He returned to England later that summer. When fishermen heard of the Grand Banks, they immediately went to harvest. They set up a camp on the shores of that bay, filleting and preserving the fish for transport. That fishing camp on St John's bay became a town, then a city. Today the city of St John's is the capital of the province of Newfoundland. Colonies set up by government failed: Roanoke, Popham Colony, and various French and Spanish colonies. But St John's was built by businessmen, the first European settlement since the Vikings and persists to this day. I think a good model for Mars.

SpaceNut · 2020-01-18 20:32:26

There business model thou requires a living based on an export to make funds to keep drawing more colonists, materials and money to pay for the work.

tahanson43206 · 2020-01-18 20:50:04

For RobertDyck re #56

Thank you for the tip about your having written about Newfoundland before ... I asked FluxBB to find all posts with Newfoundland and RobertDyck and received 25 back. These do not include those lost earlier during the great crash.

I started reading from the most recent, and soon realized there is a short course worth of material there, so I'll try to fit it into my schedule.

This series (like so may by other long term authors here) illustrates the strength and weakness of the forum environment.

You had to repeat yourself because you were often addressing new members (or so it seemed to me). On the other hand, it seemed (to me as I read) that with each telling you added interesting little details, such as the British admiral who mysteriously disappeared at sea after collecting taxes at force of arms.

To make life easier for me, I'll add a search term to quickly find this post:
SearchTerm:Newfoundland Author:RobertDyck

I would like to add that I liked the illustrations you found of oil derricks. Those are on my mind these days, as Lizard King from luf.org tries to encourage me to look into finding oil derricks for the wind-turbine-at-sea idea, instead of the far more difficult region around Antarctica.

(th)

louis · 2020-01-19 08:01:52

I think labour is way too scarce on Mars for American Football to be encouraged. But something like basketball or badminton would be good - little chance of serious injury. For basketball you might need to raise the basket and/or make the ball heavier. Volleyball might be another good sport for Mars.

For outdoor activities, I imagine that motor rallies and other motor sports could be popular. Maybe we will see something like small pedal- powered (pressurised) vehicles - the cycle mechanism will be internal but might drive wheels. The low wind force and near vacuum on Mars might make pedal powered vehicles more practical that they might otherwise seem.

There would be opportunities for creating indoor lakes or water courses where canoeing and kayaking could be enjoyed for leisure or competitive sports.

knightdepaix wrote:

louis wrote:
Ok, in the light of the above, some conclusions on a feasible way forward:
Mars’s Diversified Economy
In line with the Mars Development Plan (MDP) Mars already has a very diversified economy including:
- Agriculture. 95% of food consumed is produced on Mars.
- Energy. 99% of energy used on Mars is produced on Mars.
- Mining. There are mining operations taking place at hundreds of locations, some with human involvement, some entirely dependent
on robots. Mining and atmospheric extraction supplies 95% of the colony’s needs.
- Chemicals and raw material processing.
- Manufacturing
- Construction
- Marketing, advertising and sponsorship.
- Transport
- Health
- Sports and leisure
- Retail sector
For sports and leisure, of the four franchised sports in North American plus association football, baseball likely faced difficulties. With less dense atmosphere on Mars and about a quarter of the Earth's gravity. A hit baseball on Mars can travel farther and be faster and much more difficult for outfielder to catch it, to the point that inside the park homerun can appear as frequently as a double. I dont know but basketball, association football and ice-hockey focuses on the object on the field, the ball or the puck, so same situations as baseball. Or the ball or puck needs to be reconditioned for Mars for them and other competitive sports that focuses on the object, such as tennis, badminton, table-tennis, hockey, cricket.
North American Football could prosper but need more protective football player gears.
Team sports that focuses on the object rolling or sliding on the ground can take the lead in their team sports field.. For example, giving the low average outdoor temperature w/r/t Earth (-60oC), curling could be played on sheets of ice. With lower gravity, a hand push on Mars travels farther than the same force on Earth. Ice-hockey on the other hand needs a reconfigured puck.

tahanson43206 · 2020-01-19 11:08:30

For Louis re topic ...

Earlier in this topic we've exchanged views on paper. Recently I offered an example of a situation where paper filled a psychological need.

Today I printed a work plan for a set of activities I'm hoping to complete this afternoon.

Your point of view about paper is still on my mind, so I thought about what I had just done. I composed a work plan using a computer, and sent the work plan to an output device. The particular output device for this particular print used a laser beam to energize spots on a metal drum, which attracted toner that was subsequently pressed onto a sheet of clean paper.

The impression I'll be looking at in a few minutes cannot be erased, except by destroying the paper, bleaching the toner and carrying out whatever additional steps are needed to create a new sheet of blank paper.

However, it may not be necessary for humans to continue this ancient practice.

A quick Google search turned up a number of electronic devices that accept computer generated text and display images on a flat screen.

What I am imagining now is a sheet of simulated paper that contains pixels that can be set to black or reset to white.

To my knowledge, such a technology does not exist anywhere on Earth today, but since a market already exists for electronic devices costing $100 or more to perform the function of a sheet of paper, it seems reasonable to suppose some (probably young) entrepreneur will figure out how to create a thin sheet of flexible material that can receive instructions from a computer output device to set pixels black or white.

Should such a kind of "paper" become available, it would reduce the need for paper used for temporary information conveyance.

I just thought of a drawback from a criminal justice point of view .... like burning a piece of paper to eliminate incriminating evidence, a re-writable piece of "electronic paper" could be reset to blank, and there would be no residual memory of the previous pixel state.

Interesting !!!

(th)

louis · 2020-01-19 11:38:48

Yes E Paper is an alternative to conventional paper or computer screens that could eventually be used on Mars. The technology seems to be advancing, albeit slowly:

https://thefutureofthings.com/3081-the- … nic-paper/

I liked this description of how it might work:

"Q: How do you see the future of e-paper?

A: I like to tell people that the holy grail of e-paper will be embodied as a cylindrical tube, about 1 centimeter in diameter and 15 to 20 centimeters long, that a person can comfortably carry in his or her pocket. The tube will contain a tightly rolled sheet of e-paper that can be spooled out of a slit in the tube as a flat sheet, for reading, and stored again at the touch of a button. Information will be downloaded—there will be simple user interface—from an overhead satellite, a cell phone network, or an internal memory chip. This document reader will be used for e-mail, the Internet, books downloaded from a global digital library that is currently under construction, technical manuals, newspapers (perhaps in larger format), magazines, and so forth, anywhere on the planet. It will cost less than $100, and nearly everyone will have one!"

That might well give us the best of both worlds - the utility of paper without its costs and use of labour.

tahanson43206 wrote:

For Louis re topic ...
Earlier in this topic we've exchanged views on paper. Recently I offered an example of a situation where paper filled a psychological need.
Today I printed a work plan for a set of activities I'm hoping to complete this afternoon.
Your point of view about paper is still on my mind, so I thought about what I had just done. I composed a work plan using a computer, and sent the work plan to an output device. The particular output device for this particular print used a laser beam to energize spots on a metal drum, which attracted toner that was subsequently pressed onto a sheet of clean paper.
The impression I'll be looking at in a few minutes cannot be erased, except by destroying the paper, bleaching the toner and carrying out whatever additional steps are needed to create a new sheet of blank paper.
However, it may not be necessary for humans to continue this ancient practice.
A quick Google search turned up a number of electronic devices that accept computer generated text and display images on a flat screen.
What I am imagining now is a sheet of simulated paper that contains pixels that can be set to black or reset to white.
To my knowledge, such a technology does not exist anywhere on Earth today, but since a market already exists for electronic devices costing $100 or more to perform the function of a sheet of paper, it seems reasonable to suppose some (probably young) entrepreneur will figure out how to create a thin sheet of flexible material that can receive instructions from a computer output device to set pixels black or white.
Should such a kind of "paper" become available, it would reduce the need for paper used for temporary information conveyance.
I just thought of a drawback from a criminal justice point of view .... like burning a piece of paper to eliminate incriminating evidence, a re-writable piece of "electronic paper" could be reset to blank, and there would be no residual memory of the previous pixel state.
Interesting !!!
(th)

tahanson43206 · 2020-01-19 12:22:10

For Louis re #61

Thanks for the interesting feedback!

If there is an opportunity to influence inventors who run across this topic, I'd like to put in a bid for a larger version, able to display a full sized news paper two page layout. The "really far out" version would contain pixels able to display in color.

The 1920x1080 video display I am using now is satisfactory in every respect, except that it is not portable.

I'd like to see the functional equivalent of that display in the format you described in your post.

Your example did not include details about how the scroll-out display would be controlled, but as technology advances, voice control seems possible, as well as touch of "buttons" on the tube from which the scroll is drawn.

(th)

SpaceNut · 2020-01-19 12:44:43

Its hard to get e-content these days to display at a readable level of paper when the screen size is from an inch sq to 3 x 4 in size. pixel density can only go so far as to keep what you see sharp as the eye can only resolve to about the thinkness of a hair unaided. Did that research back in 2003 or so when I was working on a design for an electronics display for use on a gun for the military.
Back in the old early days of a handheld devices with a styles one would write what you needed for later on it not the mini ipads or other but there was a different name for it but it eludes me. We now have digital voice recorders that when connected to computer programs for voice to writen word will make it so that we can have a transcript of the conversational input.

RobertDyck · 2020-01-19 18:54:30

Sports: I envision something outside. The reason hockey is popular in Canada is it's something you can do in winter. With an MCP suit, you have a lot more dexterity and safety.

The book "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" by Robert A Heinlein included a large air reservoir. It was used to fly with strap-on wings. That would work in 1/6 gravity, but I doubt it would in 38% gravity. However, that made me think the water storage reservoir could be used as a swimming pool. In another post I asked if water filters could remove pool chlorine; a member answered yes.

Basketball would require a gymnasium, so only when there's a large town. And jumping/throwing would be quite different in 38% gravity. Just making the ball heave isn't enough. That would reduce the velocity a ball could leave you hand, but not the arc through the air. Basically yes, the net would have to be a lot higher.

One Apollo mission an astronaut brought a golf club and ball. Incredible stroke in 1/6 G. In 38% G it wouldn't be that far, but each fareway would have to be very long. And no "rough", instead a giant (planet size) sand trap around each fareway. Would golf work in a desert?

RobertDyck · 2020-01-19 18:57:28

E-paper: good idea. Realize dedicated Kindle e-readers already use e-paper. Look up Kindle Paperwhite. Still available on Amazon, but I don't see them in stores any more. You can download a Kindle app for your smartphone.

louis · 2020-01-19 19:45:45

I could see ice hockey (maybe a non-contact version, to protect the players, who will be valuable members of the labour force on Mars) being played if we had advanced MCP suits. Maybe they would play 15 mins quarters after which, each time, they recharge their air.

I am not so sure a gym needs a "large town". We know that regular exercise is vital to maintaining muscle and bone in <1G so I expect a gym to be there from Sol 1. A small one to begin with obviously! But the gyms will get progressively bigger. Initially you will play around one hoop. But eventually proper basketball matches will be played.

A basketball court is 28.65 m long and 15.24 m wide. That sort of area can be covered even in the early settlement period.

RobertDyck wrote:

Sports: I envision something outside. The reason hockey is popular in Canada is it's something you can do in winter. With an MCP suit, you have a lot more dexterity and safety.
The book "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress" by Robert A Heinlein included a large air reservoir. It was used to fly with strap-on wings. That would work in 1/6 gravity, but I doubt it would in 38% gravity. However, that made me think the water storage reservoir could be used as a swimming pool. In another post I asked if water filters could remove pool chlorine; a member answered yes.
Basketball would require a gymnasium, so only when there's a large town. And jumping/throwing would be quite different in 38% gravity. Just making the ball heave isn't enough. That would reduce the velocity a ball could leave you hand, but not the arc through the air. Basically yes, the net would have to be a lot higher.
One Apollo mission an astronaut brought a golf club and ball. Incredible stroke in 1/6 G. In 38% G it wouldn't be that far, but each fareway would have to be very long. And no "rough", instead a giant (planet size) sand trap around each fareway. Would golf work in a desert?

Last edited by louis (2020-01-19 19:46:14)

tahanson43206 · 2020-01-19 21:22:31

For RobertDyck re #65

Thanks for the reminder of the Kindle eReader with simulated paper (white background with black pixels).

That is an impressive device, and it certainly shows the direction I am looking. However, what I have in mind is a passive display in a flexible sheet that handles much like a piece of paper. Unlike a piece of traditional paper, which accepts toner from a metal roller in a baking process (in the laser printer implementation), the paper I have in mind would accept commands to "permanently" set the reflectivity of each pixel from 100% to 0% or vice versa, and then not change until electronically instructed to change. In some respects it would be similar to memory in WORM chips of days gone by, which held their setting when power was removed. I suppose USB sticks must use a similar technology, because they hold their bit settings until a computer changes them (Flash memory).

So (in a sense) these flexible sheets would be (nearly) two dimensional arrays of optically reflective memory.

I have an elderly Kindle type eReader that holds a permanent display when the power is off. although I am not CERTAIN that a small trickle current may not be holding the pixels in their state of absorbing or reflecting ambient light.

In any case, I am not talking about a piece of hardware such as an eReader.

This subtopic of Louis main topic is about Louis prediction that paper would not be needed on Mars, and I am offering reasons why that might not be what people want, regardless of what Louis may imagine from the comfort of his (probably) paper filled home in London.

(th)

tahanson43206 · 2020-05-19 09:48:06

For Louis re topic, and specifically landing methods ...

The NASA researcher whose bio is given at the link below just wrote an email reply to my inquiry about the NASA Phobos Tether proposal.

http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 21#p168221

In his email, he offered opinions about relative costs, while at the same time encouraging the members of this forum to develop ideas for a proposal that might be submitted to NASA for study.

I am enlisting you (and your interest in economics) to compare and contrast the competing proposals to see if you can seen any signs of which might be most cost effective in the long run.

By long run, I am taking into account the waste incurred by the various approaches.

For example, the proposal to use extended atmospheric deceleration requires heat shielding, and that material requires replacement or refurbishment if it is to be re-used, or it may be discarded entirely, as has been done by NASA with all previous landings.

GW Johnson is working on a very interesting (to me at least) idea for landing Void's "bubbles", if the size and mass of the "bubbles" and their trajectory are carefully managed.

I am working on a proposal that is mentioned by Hop, in a blog post reported by Terraformer, to extend a tether toward Mars from Phobos, to facilitate safe, secure, reliable and cost-effective delivery of people and cargo the surface of Mars.

The services of an economist would appear appropriate for evaluation of these competing proposals and others.

(th)

louis · 2020-05-19 16:37:22

Not sure I'm the guy for the job, TA. For one thing I am phobic about Phobos proposals! Never really felt sympathetic towards them. I think there's a reason why Musk hasn't gone down that road. I don't think I could put my partisanship on this subject to one side.

There may eventually be a role for Phobos to play. It could certainly form part of the tourism itinerary. There might be a role for it acting as a staging post for human passenger flights, if you could produce rocket fuel there, but you can have docking in LMO in any case so it will be of marginal utility I would say.

If tether technology can work, it could certainly be part of a such a system, but we are a long, long way from that and a few decades down the line we might be able to have laser or microwave propulsion systems to get people and goods to LMO.

tahanson43206 wrote:

For Louis re topic, and specifically landing methods ...
The NASA researcher whose bio is given at the link below just wrote an email reply to my inquiry about the NASA Phobos Tether proposal.
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 21#p168221
In his email, he offered opinions about relative costs, while at the same time encouraging the members of this forum to develop ideas for a proposal that might be submitted to NASA for study.
I am enlisting you (and your interest in economics) to compare and contrast the competing proposals to see if you can seen any signs of which might be most cost effective in the long run.
By long run, I am taking into account the waste incurred by the various approaches.
For example, the proposal to use extended atmospheric deceleration requires heat shielding, and that material requires replacement or refurbishment if it is to be re-used, or it may be discarded entirely, as has been done by NASA with all previous landings.
GW Johnson is working on a very interesting (to me at least) idea for landing Void's "bubbles", if the size and mass of the "bubbles" and their trajectory are carefully managed.
I am working on a proposal that is mentioned by Hop, in a blog post reported by Terraformer, to extend a tether toward Mars from Phobos, to facilitate safe, secure, reliable and cost-effective delivery of people and cargo the surface of Mars.
The services of an economist would appear appropriate for evaluation of these competing proposals and others.
(th)

tahanson43206 · 2021-09-08 18:19:50

For SpaceNut ... there are four topics that contain the word "economics" in the title...

This seemed the best fit .... the article itself is about the Earth, but readers of this forum can probably extrapolate to Mars ...

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/must … 09116.html

Joshua Jahani
Wed, September 8, 2021, 10:11 AM
In 1989, Tim Berners-Lee invented the World Wide Web (popularizing the modern internet). He didn’t protect the technology because he wanted it to benefit us all. Three decades later, most of the power -- and a lot of the profits -- of the internet are in the hands of a few tech billionaires, and much of the early promise of the internet remains unfulfilled.

Space travel is not just hype or the plaything of billionaires. It is the final frontier, both physically and economically.
If we want it to be a success, we should learn from our successes and failures back on Earth and apply them to space now.
That means subsidies, support, regulation and safety. These things are important on Earth, but in space they are absolutely essential.

I read this as sensible comments upon how space industry needs to be both promoted and regulated.

(th)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-05-07 12:24:28

Theory and Economics of MARS and MOON Colonization
https://eujournal.org/index.php/esj/article/view/10056

NASA Offers Up to $200 Million to Help Push New Technologies to Market.
https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa … to-market/

Lunar Economy: From Vision to Reality
https://interactive.satellitetoday.com/ … o-reality/

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