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GW Johnson

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From: McGregor, Texas USA

Registered: 2011-12-04

Posts: 5,678

Website

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

From AIAA’s “Daily Launch” for Monday 7-29-2024:

ARS TECHNICA
NASA nears decision on what to do with Boeing’s troubled Starliner spacecraft

Astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams have been in space for 51 days as engineers on the groundwork through problems with Starliner's propulsion system. On Thursday, NASA and Boeing managers said they still plan to bring Wilmore and Williams home on the Starliner spacecraft. This weekend, Boeing and NASA plan to fire the spacecraft's thrusters in orbit to check their performance while docked at the space station. “I think we’re starting to close in on those final pieces of flight rationale to make sure that we can come home safely, and that’s our primary focus right now," Steve Stich, manager of NASA's commercial crew program, said

GW

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GW Johnson
McGregor,  Texas

"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew,  especially one dead from a bad management decision"

tahanson43206

Moderator

Registered: 2018-04-27

Posts: 18,453

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

Today's news feed included a report from August 2nd, about the debate within NASA about what to do...

NASA weighs Boeing vs. SpaceX choice in bringing back Starliner astronauts
Michael Sheetz, CNBC
Fri, August 2, 2024 at 12:17 PM EDT·5 min read
184

The article is fairly long, and it goes into considerable detail on the quandary, with consequences for all parties.

One interesting possibility is that Boeing may decide to "cut it's losses" and withdraw from the astronaut delivery competition.

(th)

GW Johnson

Member

From: McGregor, Texas USA

Registered: 2011-12-04

Posts: 5,678

Website

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

With fewer and fewer flights available to the ISS for delivering crews,  and with mounting losses on the Starliner program to cover its flaws that showed up in tests,  I am unsurprised that Boeing might cancel the program and leave crew delivery to SpaceX.  Costs are rising,  far faster than any possible revenue,  which is actually shrinking as the number of remaining flights drops.  If all you care about is money (and reputation be damned),  that is the "smart" thing to do. 

GW

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GW Johnson
McGregor,  Texas

"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew,  especially one dead from a bad management decision"

Oldfart1939

Member

Registered: 2016-11-26

Posts: 2,425

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

With both Boeing and NASA engaged in mutual hand-wringing over this increasingly embarrassing situation, it is now time to do what the high salaried boys are paid to do: MAKE A DECISION AND ACT ON IT! It's costing Boeing millions a day supporting the standby infrastructure, and making them look like incompetent fools.

tahanson43206

Moderator

Registered: 2018-04-27

Posts: 18,453

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

The Starliner capsule has plenty of room for return of items that need to go back to the surface.  The flight can be salvaged if it is adapted for that purpose.  The system can (probably ie, > 50%) return on it's own, so the round trip will be worth while.

NASA was blinded by the past reputation of Boeing, not recognizing the rot that had (apparently) set in.  NASA can correct for it's expensive mistake by providing a much higher level of support for Dream Chaser than it has so far.

(th)

GW Johnson

Member

From: McGregor, Texas USA

Registered: 2011-12-04

Posts: 5,678

Website

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

Here below is what I found today from CNBC.  The real story is finally starting to peek out.  They still do not have a definitive answer for what went wrong approaching ISS,  even after weeks of testing.  NASA is now weighing the risk to astronauts coming home in a suspect craft,  vs the risk that Boeing will cancel Starliner and leave the crew taxi program. Once again,  it's money vs lives.  I note the 8-2-24 date and wonder why I had not found this 4 days ago.  --  GW

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Aug. 2, 2024, 11:13 AM CDT / Source: CNBC
By Michael Sheetz, CNBC

NASA management has been in deep discussion this week about whether to return the agency’s astronauts on board Boeing’s misfiring Starliner capsule or to go with the alternative of using a SpaceX craft to rescue the crew.

The agency’s concern with Starliner — which flew NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to the International Space Station in early June — comes from not having identified a root cause for why some of the spacecraft’s thrusters failed during docking, a person familiar with the situation told CNBC.

NASA this week has been discussing the possibility of returning Starliner empty and instead using SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft to return its astronauts. There is no consensus among those responsible for making the decision, that person said, calling the outcome of NASA’s ongoing discussions unpredictable given the variety of factors involved.

The Starliner capsule “Calypso” has now been in space 59 days and counting. The mission is intended to serve as the final step toward proving Boeing’s long-delayed spacecraft is safe to fly lengthy crew missions to-and-from the ISS.

The Boeing crew flight was initially planned to last a minimum of nine days. But it has been extended several times while the company and NASA conduct testing both back on the ground and in space in an attempt to understand the thruster problem.

While NASA and Boeing leadership have publicly characterized the extensions as a data-gathering exercise, the concerns raised in recent days reveal that there is less confidence internally on whether Starliner is safe to return the astronauts than the agency has disclosed.

Ars Technica first reported NASA’s mixed opinion on Starliner’s situation. NASA previously noted that SpaceX serves as a backup but has sought to deemphasize that possibility, calling Boeing’s spacecraft the “primary option” for return.

For its part, Boeing says it has the “flight rationale” to return Starliner with the astronauts on board, meaning the company believes the spacecraft can return without too much risk.

“We remain confident in the Starliner spacecraft and its ability to return safely with crew. We are supporting NASA’s requests for additional data, analysis and data reviews to affirm the spacecraft’s safe undocking and landing capabilities,” a Boeing spokesperson said in a statement to CNBC on Friday.

If Starliner returns empty, the most likely alternative would be to bring the astronauts back using SpaceX’s Crew Dragon by removing two astronauts from the Crew-9 mission — currently planned to launch four people in the coming weeks. That would open up two seats for Wilmore and Williams.

NASA did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment on the ongoing Starliner discussions, but told Ars Technica in a statement that the agency “is evaluating all options for the return.”

“No decisions have been made and the agency will continue to provide updates on its planning,” NASA said.

Trusting the thrust

After testing this past weekend, NASA noted that 27 of Starliner’s 28 thrusters appear to be healthy. The thrusters, also known as its reaction control system, or RCS, engines, help the spacecraft move in orbit.

But from an engineering perspective, not having a root cause for why five of the thrusters failed on the flight to the ISS means that risk remains for more thrusters to malfunction during the return flight.

Boeing’s Mark Nappi, vice president of the Starliner program, said during a press conference on July 25 that testing of the thrusters has resulted in “very significant” findings that “are likely the root cause.” But despite that, the company has not identified the root cause yet.
“We’re going to continue to take that hardware apart so that we can finally prove this,” Nappi said at the time.

NASA now needs to decide if it’s willing to trust that the unknown issue with Starliner’s thrusters does not arise again, or even potentially cascade into other problems.

An unpredictable outcome

NASA’s lack of consensus arose when the Commercial Crew Program Control Board met earlier this week to discuss Starliner’s return. PCBs are a standard part of NASA’s decision-making process, dating back to the Space Shuttle era, and are an effort to make sure any risks can be elevated to the highest levels of the agency’s authority.

The PCB, chaired by Commercial Crew program manager Steve Stich, did not come to a decision on whether to move forward with a flight readiness review, the next major agency step toward establishing a date for Starliner to return. The next PCB meeting is expected in the coming days, with NASA noting in a blog post on Thursday that return planning will continue into next week.

If any members of the PCB dissent on the decision to return Starliner with crew, the decision would go up the chain of command until the dissent is addressed. As it stands, the discussions within the PCB do not have a predictable outcome as NASA personnel discuss the level of risk involved on returning crew with Starliner.

Making a choice

NASA often emphasizes that “astronaut safety remains the top priority” for the agency in making decisions about human spaceflight, an inherently risky endeavor.

But the choice NASA faces has further ramifications, which threaten Boeing’s involvement in the agency’s Commercial Crew Program. Already, Boeing’s Starliner losses total more than $1.5 billion due to repeated setbacks and years of delays in developing the spacecraft.
If NASA backs Boeing and returns Wilmore and Williams on Starliner, the agency is accepting a currently unquantifiable amount of risk. A major failure during the return, with the astronauts’ lives at stake, would put NASA leadership under pressure to end Boeing’s contract and involvement in the program.

If NASA decides to send Starliner back empty, it’s a vote of no confidence in Boeing that may lead the company to cut its losses and withdraw from the program.

Additionally, if NASA takes the SpaceX alternative and Starliner returns home without incident, the agency faces blowback from being seen as overreacting to a situation that it publicly declared for weeks was not a significant risk.

Last edited by GW Johnson (2024-08-06 10:41:39)

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GW Johnson
McGregor,  Texas

"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew,  especially one dead from a bad management decision"

Oldfart1939

Member

Registered: 2016-11-26

Posts: 2,425

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

Either way, Boeing is "toast." Loss of a crew or loss of reputation? Take your pick!

SpaceNut

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From: New Hampshire

Registered: 2004-07-22

Posts: 29,357

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

Boeing never needed to compete of money until space x came onboard as the delta family is quite stable just pricy.
The end of the contract to perform has come due and they will be heads to roll for the failure.

GW Johnson

Member

From: McGregor, Texas USA

Registered: 2011-12-04

Posts: 5,678

Website

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

Well,  today's news stories indicate disagreement within NASA over whether Starliner can bring its crew home safely.  They haven't reached a decision yet,  but one spokesman indicated the SpaceX option is more likely than it was a couple of days ago.  If they go that way,  Crew 9 launches in late September with only 2 aboard instead of the planned 4,  and Butch and Suni return in those 2 seats,  next February.

Personally,  I think Oldfart1939 is right,  we are seeing the beginnings of Boeing withdrawing from the crew program and cancelling Starliner to cut its losses.  Which are somewhere near $1.6B on that one program now. We will soon see (yet once again) if reputation carries any weight,  or if only money is the focus of Boeing corporate management.

NASA has to s**t or get off the pot with this Starliner crew return issue,  and they know it.  The reports of disagreement within NASA more than likely represent the managers vs the engineers,  and we already know much of NASA management sides with Boeing,  which explains the optimistic press releases up to this point.  We've seen that before,  with Columbia and Challenger.  Today's NASA is most definitely NOT the NASA that figured out how to land people on the moon,  and then actually do it,  in the 1958-1972 interval.

I've posted before about airplanes and other projects that have not turned out very well since Boeing's corporate management turned into only money grubbers not long after merging with McDonnel-Douglas,  moving far away from the engineers in Seattle,  first to Chicago,  and then to DC the better to lobby Congress. 

The public is well aware of the 737 MAX problem that killed 2 planeloads before they got caught violating the FAR's with it.  Not so well known are very severe certification problems with the 777X,  and severe manufacturing defect problems holding back deliveries of the 787.  Add to that an SLS that is over a decade late and multiple $billions over budget,  that cannot reprise even Apollo 8 pushing Lockheed-Martin's Orion,  and which is costing over $4B per flight.  Now add in Starliner.  And I just looked up the KC-46 variant of the old B-767 airliner.  It still cannot do its design job for USAF,  despite being "operational" for a couple of years now.

Anyone else see a pattern with all that?

It sure as hell ain't the Boeing that brought you the B-17,  the B-29,  the B-47,  the B-52,  the B-707/720 airliners,  the B-727 and early-model B-737 airliners.  It sure as hell isn't the Boeing that brought you the B-747,  B-757,  or B-767 airliners.  All those predate the corporate management shift.  But after that shift,  everything has turned out to be crap!  Expensive crap,  but crap nonetheless!

I know some corporate managers that really,  really,  really need to be criminally tried,  and quite properly sent to jail!  At least,  that's my considered opinion!  (And THAT opinion ought to keep me off any juries.  And rightly so.)

GW

Last edited by GW Johnson (2024-08-07 17:40:39)

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GW Johnson
McGregor,  Texas

"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew,  especially one dead from a bad management decision"

Oldfart1939

Member

Registered: 2016-11-26

Posts: 2,425

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

Thanking GW for spelling it out so clearly! I agree that the managerial class at NASA is pushing the Boeing button the hardest, but they really need to listen to the engineers this time. Loss of any more astronauts would be devastating to our space program. The Starliner has been a fiasco, and there is Dreamchaser waiting in the wings. Even Northrup-Grumman has now had a hiccup.

SPACE IS HARD!!

tahanson43206

Moderator

Registered: 2018-04-27

Posts: 18,453

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

This post is primarily for GW Johnson, with the caveat that anyone in the membership is welcome to contribute to the answer ...

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char … ce-history

The above web site shows a stock chart for Boeing.  I am guessing the increases are due to the intervention of managers interested only in profit. Please compare the stock chart to the historical period of excellence when Boeing made reliable products.

My guess is that the low values were recorded during the period of engineering excellence, and the high prices were after the change of management to high flyers who failed to sustain the engineering excellence, but instead seem to have assumed the company would sustain excellence while being squeezed to make more money.

(th)

GW Johnson

Member

From: McGregor, Texas USA

Registered: 2011-12-04

Posts: 5,678

Website

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

I could not look at the site with my adblocker on,  and I am not about to visit such sites with it off. 

But,  I know the trends that TH spoke of,  in the previous post,  and his interpretation is exactly right. 

To that I would only add that when Boeing management went to money-grubbing instead of excellence,  they bragged in public about converting Boeing from an organization focused on excellence,  to an organization that maximized shareholder value.  That is almost a direct quote!  It is also the "nail in the coffin" for making this management attitude point.

All that being said,  please do not get me wrong.  Capitalism when properly constrained by appropriate regulations has proven to be the most powerful engine of creation yet devised by mankind.  Unconstrained or improperly constrained by regulation,  it has also proven to be a very powerful and rapid path to rich piracy for the few,  and abject slavery for the many.  That's just history,  you cannot argue real facts.

The problem in recent decades here in the US has been a political mania to deregulate capitalism,  on the theory that the "rising tide" for the rich pirates at the top "floats everybody else's boats".  It quite demonstrably does not,  and it never has,  not in our entire history going back to the beginnings of the colonial days.  And it never did in any of the other societies before us.

Lots of US corporate giants have figured out how to game the system and get around what regulations there are.  The most notable recent example is Boeing,  but there have been many.  Despite that,  we as a people never seem to learn the lessons of history.  Unless fenced properly,  the cows always eat the seed corn.  They always have.  They always will.

GW

Last edited by GW Johnson (2024-08-08 11:16:33)

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GW Johnson
McGregor,  Texas

"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew,  especially one dead from a bad management decision"

tahanson43206

Moderator

Registered: 2018-04-27

Posts: 18,453

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

This post is about the new CEO of Boeing ... the significant announcement is that he is moving his headquarters back to Seattle.

Ortberg has decided he will work out of Boeing's offices in Seattle, which had been the company's home for its first 85 years before it moved its corporate headquarters to Chicago in 2001.8 hours ago

Boeing's new CEO is already making an overdue change his ...

CNN
https://www.cnn.com › business › boeing-seattle-new-ceo
About featured snippets
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When was Jim McNerney CEO of Boeing?
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Boeing's new CEO gets off to a quick start

MyNorthwest.com
https://mynorthwest.com › kelly-ortberg-starts-as-new-bo...
2 hours ago — Kelly Ortberg starts as new Boeing CEO, will work out of company's Seattle office. Boeing has a new CEO and he is hitting the ground running.

First Day at the Office for New Boeing CEO

FLYING Magazine
https://www.flyingmag.com › business › first-day-at-the...
4 hours ago — Ortberg will be based in Seattle, stating that it is important to be close to the place where the bulk of Boeing's aircraft are made. William ...
Missing: locate | Show results with: locate

Boeing's new CEO visits factory that makes the 737 Max ...

KSN-TV
https://www.ksn.com › news › business › ap-boeings-ne...
57 minutes ago — A new chief executive took over at Boeing on Thursday, and he began by walking the floor of the factory near Seattle that has become the ...

Boeing's new outsider CEO Kelly Ortberg takes the helm

CNBC
https://www.cnbc.com › 2024/08/08 › new-boeing-ceo-...
8 hours ago — While Boeing is still based in Arlington, Virginia — where it announced it would move its headquarters in 2022 from Chicago — Ortberg will be ...
Missing: locate | Show results with: locate

New Boeing CEO Plans Day One Presence on Factory Floor

IndustryWeek
https://www.industryweek.com › leadership › news › ne...
5 hours ago — Kelly Ortberg, the former head of Rockwell Collins who was named CEO of Boeing two weeks ago, said he would be based in Seattle "so that I can ...
Missing: locate | Show results with: locate

New Boeing CEO visits factory that makes the 737 Max ...

Washington Times
https://www.washingtontimes.com › news › aug › new-...
3 hours ago — A new chief executive takes over at Boeing on Thursday, and he plans to walk the floor of the factory near Seattle that has become the heart ...
Missing: locate | Show results with: locate

Boeing chooses its next CEO, who'll reportedly be based in ...

GeekWire
https://www.geekwire.com › Tech Moves
Jul 31, 2024 — Search for: Boeing chooses its next CEO — and he will reportedly be based back in Seattle. by Alan Boyle on July 31, 2024 at 10:39 am July 31 ...
Missing: locate | Show results with: locate

Boeing Board Names Kelly Ortberg President and CEO

Boeing
https://investors.boeing.com › Investors › News
Jul 31, 2024 — "Kelly" Ortberg as the company's new president and chief executive officer, effective August 8, 2024. Ortberg will also serve on Boeing's Board ...

Buoyed by past success, new CEO Kelly Ortberg will try to ...

InsideNoVa.com
https://www.insidenova.com › news › national › buoye...
18 hours ago — Another factor working in the new CEO's favor is that he plans to work from

(th)

RobertDyck

Moderator

From: Winnipeg, Canada

Registered: 2002-08-20

Posts: 7,877

Website

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

From the website that Tom linked in post #111

Stock Price History
Historical daily share price chart and data for Boeing since 1962 adjusted for splits and dividends. The latest closing stock price for Boeing as of August 07, 2024 is 163.24.

• The all-time high Boeing stock closing price was 430.35 on March 01, 2019.

• The Boeing 52-week high stock price is 267.54, which is 63.9% above the current share price.

• The Boeing 52-week low stock price is 159.70, which is 2.2% below the current share price.

• The average Boeing stock price for the last 52 weeks is 199.64.

Stock Splits
Stock split history for Boeing since 1962. Prices shown are actual historical values and are not adjusted for either splits or dividends. Please see the "Historical Prices" tab for adjusted price values.

Market Cap
Boeing market cap history and chart from 2010 to 2024. Market capitalization (or market value) is the most commonly used method of measuring the size of a publicly traded company and is calculated by multiplying the current stock price by the number of shares outstanding. Boeing market cap as of August 07, 2024 is $101.69B.

RobertDyck

Moderator

From: Winnipeg, Canada

Registered: 2002-08-20

Posts: 7,877

Website

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

This post is about the new CEO of Boeing ... the significant announcement is that he is moving his headquarters back to Seattle.

Oh, is that it? New president and moving headquarters back to the factory. Over due.

SpaceNut

Administrator

From: New Hampshire

Registered: 2004-07-22

Posts: 29,357

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

It appears that Nasa is running a human experiment for real untrained civilians' micro gravity the longer that they stay.

Saw news that the next crewed dragon is so far with just 2 seats being occupied.

tahanson43206

Moderator

Registered: 2018-04-27

Posts: 18,453

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

For SpaceNut re #116

I was intrigued by your post, and the word "untrained" ....

The two astronauts selected for the Boeing test flight are (apparently) "civilians" if we accept that folks who've served in the military and mustered out are "civilians".  However, it is a stretch to consider them "untrained".

Who are Butch and Suni?
Both are experienced NASA astronauts and Navy test pilots who have been eagerly awaiting this chance to test out Boeing's commercial crew spacecraft after years of delays. Suni Williams (L) and Butch Wilmore (R) aboard the International Space Station answer questions from reporters, July 10, 2024. Screengrab.Jul 10, 2024

(th)

RobertDyck

Moderator

From: Winnipeg, Canada

Registered: 2002-08-20

Posts: 7,877

Website

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

Original crew Dragon seating. Someone at NASA was concerned how "difficult" it was to get in or out, so required them to reduce to one row, 4 crew.

SpaceNut

Administrator

From: New Hampshire

Registered: 2004-07-22

Posts: 29,357

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

NASA Report Reveals Boeing’s Use of Underqualified Workers Contribute To Flurry Of Problems

A new NASA report has uncovered that Boeing's reliance on underqualified workers for its Space Launch System (SLS) project has led to significant quality control issues, contributing to delays and increased costs. The SLS, designed to return astronauts to the moon, is now projected to cost $5.7 billion, exceeding its allocated budget by $700 million, and its upper stage is six years behind schedule.

NASA's Office of Inspector General report highlighted the lack of "trained and experienced aerospace workers" as a major factor in construction delays. It also pointed out "significant quality control deficiencies" at Boeing's Michoud Assembly Facility, despite its attempts to provide in-house training.

Boeing's Starliner spacecraft encountered helium leaks and malfunctions in its reaction control system in June, leaving two NASA astronauts stranded on the International Space Station (ISS).

If NASA determines that the docked Starliner capsule is not safe for reentry, the astronauts may have to remain on the ISS until 2025. This situation could lead NASA to adjust a scheduled SpaceX flight in September, potentially removing two astronauts to accommodate the stranded crew members for their return to Earth.

GW Johnson

Member

From: McGregor, Texas USA

Registered: 2011-12-04

Posts: 5,678

Website

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

It may be too late to do this for the Crew 9 launch,  now September.  But the crew Dragon originally had 7 seats (4 above,  3 below,  per the picture in the earlier post).  Just put them back in it.  You don't always have to fill them,  but if they are there,  any such similar rescue is a lot easier.  You cannot do the rescue if the seats are not there!  Simple as that.  Common sense,  too.

Having that seating capability is now so very clearly evident to be much more important than any concerns over how hard it might be to get into and out of the 3 lower seats.  If NASA was any damned good anymore,  every Dragon henceforth would fly with all 7 seats.  Period.  But I'll only believe it when I see it!  Boeing is not the only screw-up here!

Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams are experienced Navy test pilots,  experienced NASA astronauts,  and were specifically recruited by NASA to do this job test-flying Boeing's capsule.  They are definitely NOT inexperienced civilians!  And it certainly is NOT their fault that this test flight did not go well.  I suspect they would be the first to volunteer to fly the thing back,  despite the risks and unknowns. 

GW

Last edited by GW Johnson (2024-08-11 15:25:01)

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GW Johnson
McGregor,  Texas

"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew,  especially one dead from a bad management decision"

GW Johnson

Member

From: McGregor, Texas USA

Registered: 2011-12-04

Posts: 5,678

Website

Re: Boeing Starliner OFT-2

From “Daily Launch” for 8-15-2024:

NEW YORK TIMES

NASA Is Still Deciding How to Bring Boeing Starliner Astronauts Home

A week ago, NASA officials said they would most likely need to decide by mid-August on how to safely bring home two astronauts who had traveled to the International Space Station on Boeing’s troubled Starliner spacecraft. But on Wednesday, NASA said a decision remained at least a week away.

My take: 

NASA management is still pressing its engineers hard for some way to get them off the hook,  for making a decision that they do not want to make:  that Starliner is unsafe.  Problem is,  there is nothing to get them off the hook for that,  another week will almost certainly make no difference,  and the danger is now exposed to the public,  so that it cannot be swept under the rug anymore.   

GW

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GW Johnson
McGregor,  Texas

"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew,  especially one dead from a bad management decision"