Fermi Paradox? Possible answer?

The Fermi Paradox won’t go away. It’s one of our most compelling thought experiments, and generations of scientists keep wrestling with it. The paradox pits high estimates for the number of civilizations in the galaxy against the fact that we don’t see any of those civs. It says that if rapidly expanding civilizations exist in the Milky Way, one should have arrived here in our Solar System. The fact that none have implies that none exist.

Many thinkers and scientists have addressed the Fermi Paradox and tried to come up with a reason why we don’t see any evidence of an expanding technological civilization. Life may be extraordinarily rare, and the obstacles to interstellar travel may be too challenging. It could be that simple.

But a new paper has a new answer: maybe our Solar System doesn’t offer what long-lived, rapidly expanding civilizations desire: the correct type of star.

kbd512 · 2022-10-27 15:17:31

Aliens may have no interest in Earth, because there's nothing that humanity could provide to them that they cannot provide for themselves, so why interact with another species when there's no benefit to doing so?

I'm sure the people of Tajikistan are fine people, but even though I could technically afford to travel there, I've never been and probably never would go there.

Such trips are not made out of curiosity alone because they're very expensive, so another compelling reason to go must also exist.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-02-28 11:17:41

Emotional rather than Logic?

Malmquist bias is an effect in observational astronomy which leads to detection of the intrinsically bright

Selection Living World Bias or Survivorship Bias?

David Kipping
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcInt58juL4

Elon Musk
https://greekreporter.com/2023/02/15/el … os-aliens/
Musk opened up about UFOs and Aliens

Aliens Probably Already Found Us, But They Have Damn Good Reasons to Stay Hidden
https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/ … sse-tyson/

What's in the sky? Not aliens. Here are 13 possible reasons we haven't made contact yet.
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-no- … ens-2019-9

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2023-02-28 11:24:39)

Oldfart1939 · 2023-02-28 23:18:43

Revisiting this topic after a lot more exoplanet astronomy has taken place, and more terrestrial type (Rocky planets) have been added to the known inventory. The problem we have is in the detection technology, which requires the transit observations by the orbital observatory. This means that a huge number of stars could have exoplanets which simply are in unfavorable orbits and subsequently remain undetected. More and more evidence is showing that planets around stars are the norm and not the exception, so there needs to be a change in the Drake equation increasing the probability of habitable worlds. The problem again, simply boils down to the energy requirement to achieve close to light speed, and how life will respond to moving at relativistic velocities.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-03-01 05:34:19

There is a sicifi book from China exploring this idea that will be made into a tv show or movie, it already has a big fanbase following.

It looks like Hollywood or some Western studio in contrast to the Eastern world known as the Orient might remake or adapt a hard sci-fi drama from China. Sometimes I don't know if East and West should be used but there is a distinct difference between Chinese culture and the film/tv culture of the United States. With so much product from Asia countries like Japan selling games or animation I wonder if Samuel P. Huntington's ideas of East and West are even a little out-dated.
and I wonder if using the term 'West' and 'East' is outdated for example an image formed on Samuel P. Huntington's 1996 idea of Clash of Civilizations, ignores Japan and South Korea, it classed a lighter blue color for Ukraine, Romania, Belarus, Russia and Bulgaria and almost all of Latin America as the same. French Guiana is classed as 'West' while a lighter blue covers the rest of Latin America, Suriname with histroical labourers brought in from Africa and Asia by the Dutch Empire the Co‑operative Republic of Guyana are classed with a grey block, a grayish color to match Africa, the Pacific islands, Asia, sections of the Balkans and Caucasus Mountains region and Arabia as one block of Grayed out color.

https://files.catbox.moe/n9031y.png
,
https://i.ibb.co/3m7F3yx/n9031y.png

Anyways back on topic

A scifi writer Liu Cixin explored the idea

Sometimes in scifi they aliens seem human like and friendly relations are established, in typical scifi sometimes there’s a fight for a while and sometimes there’s peace afterwards, other times its a stalemate and they enter a ColdWar an Outcome without true Conclusion or Temporary Cease-Fire state of being, lines are drawn in the sand and each stays on the other side.

The idea of Dark Forest adds a hypothesis that is bleak.

Vids
The Dark Forest, Aliens, and a Hostile Galaxy
https://rumble.com/v25pofb-the-dark-for … alaxy.html
The Fermi Paradox: Dark Forest Theory
https://www.bitchute.com/video/zmCTmgavkrQ/

Overseas success of 'Three-Body' series paves way for Chinese sci-fi
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202302/1285293.shtml

The Chinese sci-fi masterpiece by Liu Cixin has proven its charm again.

The Dark Forest Hypothesis: An Unsettling Explanation For Why Aliens Haven't Made Contact
https://www.iflscience.com/the-dark-for … act--59407

Books that describe going from a Kardashev-1 to a Kardashev-2 civilization. The 'Dark forest' is give as a possible reason the the universe seems too quiet.

The Aliens do not attack in FTL Ships, the universe does not have Faster-than-Light yet but there might be things like wormholes and they have already crossed distance with tech like 'Quantum Entanglement' with something smaller than an atom they already have a tiny presence on planet Earth and they can move information around Earth, they manage to move messages not people, they create puzzles to lure people into a game-cult, they sabotaged Earth's technology, the invasion will take a long time but in the mean time a fanatical zealot like Fifth column begins to form, convert and killing Earth's scientists secretly.

There were earlier works that explored hostile worlds and angry spaceships like Star Trek contact with 'The Borg' or Glen David Brin is an American scientist and author of science fiction.

,
Dark Forest
https://www.nhpr.org/environment/2022-0 … outside-in

People sometimes try examine through gamer thought experiments like he game prisoner's dilemma is a gaming analyzed in 'game theory' a thought experiment that challenges two completely rational agents to a dilemma: they can cooperate with their partner for mutual benefit or betray their partner "defect" for individual reward. Rational Self interested sociopaths, this leads to a possible of four different outcomes.

Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” XVI: What is the “Dark Forest” Hypothesis?
https://www.universetoday.com/149410/be … ypothesis/

This particular proposed resolution to Fermi’s Paradox question is a very recent addition. It takes its name from the novel The Dark Forest by famed Chinese science fiction writer Liu Cixin. This book is the second installment in the Remembrance of Earth’s Past series, which deals with the prospect of an impending alien invasion. In a fascinating twist, this invasion was actually invited by a group of disillusioned humans!

This particular proposed resolution to Fermi’s Paradox question is a very recent addition. It takes its name from the novel The Dark Forest by famed Chinese science fiction writer Liu Cixin. This book is the second installment in the Remembrance of Earth’s Past series, which deals with the prospect of an impending alien invasion. In a fascinating twist, this invasion was actually invited by a group of disillusioned humans!

The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Institute (SETI), previously a government body and now a nonprofit located in Mountainview in California, postulates that the theory is not implausible. The official policy within the SETI community is only to collect information and not respond to any signals or evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence out of fear that this could be the end of life on Earth.

It is supposed that civilizations continuously expand over time

Cixin’s two axioms

Any given civilization’s goal is survival.
Civilizations continuously grow and expand, but resources in the universe are finite.

The "dark forest" can be considered an extensive-form game with each "player" possessing the following possible actions: destroy another civilization known to the player; broadcast and alert other civilizations of one's existence; or do nothing.
https://www.projectnash.com/aliens-the- … st-theory/

Aliens might be out there. Or, perhaps, they might not.
https://futurism.com/theories-intellige … mi-paradox

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2023-03-01 05:35:09)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-03-28 11:42:10

So here is another thing I would consider, Earth might have a uniqueness.

So far NASA and other Observatories across the world have found 5312 confirmed Exoplanets Systems 3,981 systems EDIT
5,300 + exoplanets
3,900 + systems
and still nothing like our Earth and our own Solar System
...most are 'Hot Jupiters', some are somewhat Earth sized but we have nothing truly like Earth. The Goldilocks zone, some even try to call the Earth Moon system a Double Planet like Pluto-Charon origin may mirror that of Earth and its Moon,the Moon fitting perfectly over our Sun during an eclipse it stops our waters turning stagnant and regulates tides, another thing which adds to our uniqueness no known exoplanets have enough oxygen to allow fire to exist?

Would a complex civilization exist on a world where you can not make fire?

https://astronomy.com/magazine/ask-astr … there-fire

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2023-03-28 17:50:19)

Calliban · 2023-03-28 15:52:39

What we have learned so far about exoplanets, tells us that our solar system is unusual. Most planets are larger than Earth and seem to be much closer in towards their stars. Our solar system is unusual in having relatively small planets on wide orbits. If human beings invented FTL tomorrow, there aren't many exoplanets that we have discovered so far that would be worthwhile targets for humanity. Stat Trek tended to assume that other star systems were solar system analogues. That is most definitely not what we have found. Most of these worlds would not be good places to settle, even it we could get there. If humanity does spread its wings into the cosmos, our future probably lies with space habitats, whose environments we can tailor to our needs. Planets are not going to ve much use to us.

Terraformer · 2023-03-28 16:19:17

Have we found any yet that would be easier to settle than anywhere else in our solar system? Like, world's with half a bar of CO2 and a permafrost surface and suitable gravity.

There is of course still the selection effect of close in planets being easier to detect. More chances for occultation, and bigger ones. I think the gravity wobble is also greater?

Tyche and Nemesis at least have been ruled out. But we were looking for direct observation there, not effects on stars.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-05-12 03:15:57

Advanced Life Should Have Already Peaked Billions of Years Ago
https://www.universetoday.com/161309/ad … years-ago/

What If Another Advanced Species Existed on Earth?
https://curiousmatrix.com/what-if-anoth … s-existed/

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2023-05-13 07:56:19)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-06-24 03:17:19

The lack of a plan to handle first contact

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2022 … ent-rights

tahanson43206 · 2023-06-24 06:59:32

For Mars_B4_Moon re #41

Thank you for the link to the BBC article on extra-terrestrial life.

That is a thoughtful evaluation of the situation, and it includes considerations I have not seen before.

The sorry history of human treatment of others (human or animal) is included in the discussion.

The perspective of how sentient beings would treat us is included in the discussion.

Numerous references to science fiction consideration of the issue are included, along with interviews with folks involved in the ongoing SETI initiative.

The only action item I was able to pull from the piece is the suggestion to attempt to start an initiative in this area at the United Nations.

(th)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-08-03 09:25:16

Variable Stars can Tell us Where and When to Search for Extraterrestrials

https://www.universetoday.com/162635/va … restrials/

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-08-05 22:19:11

Do Technological Civilizations Depend on Atmospheric Oxygen?

https://www.universetoday.com/162682/do … ic-oxygen/

tahanson43206 · 2023-08-06 06:40:52

For Mars_B4_Moon re #44

Thanks for the link to that (to me quite interesting) analysis of the need for rare conditions to provide an atmosphere with oxygen over 18%. The paper itself opens with a reminder that humans have been using intentionally created fire for (about) 2 million years.

One of the benefits of scientific analysis like this is the framework it provides for science fiction writers to work with the constraints of particular circumstances. The authors make the case that humans have evolved as fire users, and specifically that advanced civilization on Earth depends upon skill in managing heat produced by chemical reactions.

It is possible that someone will take this paper as a starting point to attempt to imagine how advanced life might evolve.

I find the large planet scenario particularly interesting, and hope that someone will take that idea and run with it.

(th)

GW Johnson · 2023-08-07 09:17:12

I posted 2 funnies that are alternative solution possibilities to the Fermi paradox. These are located on my "exrocketman" site. The first one I posted is titled "Solution to Fermi Paradox?", and dated 16 July 2023. The second (more recent one) is titled "Alternate Solution to Fermi Paradox?", and dated 5 August 2023. I think they are hilarious.

Right now, as recent as these funnies are, the fastest way to see them is go to the site and scroll down. Later, when scrolling is less practical, use the fast navigation tool on the left. All you need is a date and title. Click on the year, then the month, then on the title if more than one thing was posted that month.

I've got a lot of stuff posted there, and quite a bit of it is technical. That technical stuff sorts into multiple categories. I do have a sort of catalog article posted there with those lists of articles sorted by category, which gives you the dates and titles you need for a fast look-see. It's now too far down to scroll easily to it, so here is its title and date: "Lists of Some Articles By Topic Area", 21 October 2021. The funnies are not a category in these lists. These in the lists are all technical in some way.

GW

Last edited by GW Johnson (2023-08-07 09:19:56)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-08-15 09:08:26

Astronomers Scan 11,680 Nearby Stars for Signals from Advanced Civilizations
https://www.universetoday.com/162778/as … lizations/

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-08-15 18:33:26

The 2nd Annual Penn State SETI Symposium and the Search for Technosignatures!

https://www.universetoday.com/162744/th … ignatures/

From June 18th to 22nd, the Penn State Extraterrestrial Intelligence Center (PSETI) held the second annual Penn State SETI Symposium. The event saw experts from many fields and backgrounds gathering to discuss the enduring questions about SETI, the technical challenges of looking for technosignatures, its ethical and moral dimensions, and what some of the latest experiments have revealed. Some very interesting presentations examined what will be possible in the near future and the likelihood that we will find evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence.

Among them, there were some very interesting presentations by Adam Frank, Professor of Astrophysics at the University of Rochester; Ph.D. student Matias Suazo, an astrophysicist and member of Project Haephestos at the University of Uppsala; and Nicholas Siegler, the Chief Technologist of NASA’s Exoplanet Exploration Program (ExEP). These presentations addressed ongoing issues in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI), technosignatures, the role of oxygen in the evolution of complex life, and what motivations extraterrestrial civilizations (ETC) might have for creating noticeable signatures.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-09-01 17:36:14

Do Advanced Civilizations Know We're Here?

https://www.universetoday.com/162977/do … were-here/

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-09-15 13:52:36

China’s Space Authorities Say No Proof Aliens Exist

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science … errestrial

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