Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

Calliban · 2022-07-07 08:58:09

I watched the video narrated by the Iranian woman, describing the proposed alternative transit route that avoids the Suez Canal. I think the proposal is weak.

It involves sea transport to an Iranian port, followed by land transport (Rail? Do they have the infrastructure?) from southern to northern Iran, whereupon freight will be loaded onto another ship for transport across the length of the Caspian, finally arriving at Russia. After this, there is a long land journey is required between the caucasus and tge Russian population centres.

This is something that can no doubt be made to work at some level. But all that long-distance land transportation is costly and volume of freight will be constrained. The need for at least three loading / unloading activities as freight changes mode three times, is time consuming and labour intensive. If anything, the fact that the Russians and Iranians need to consider this is a sign of desperation. The reason that globalisation has been so succesful up to now is that sea borne freight is able to carry huge volumes between hubs, with low energy consumption per tonne-mile and minimal handling activities thanks to containerisation.

Last edited by Calliban (2022-07-07 09:03:07)

Void · 2022-07-07 09:24:29

Your analysis is probably accurate.

In history however, there have been people in the Middle East who drew profit by blocking the communication of the west and the far east.
In this they did very little value-added service to the human race.

The European emergence to sail alternate routes, took some of that "Free Power" from them, and awarded a more desirable situation to the Europeans, as they would calculate it.

At some point even inefficient routes may be important. For instance, the US routed supplies through Iran to the Soviet Union during WWII.

In some ways this path might be pretty good, as the Russians, Iranians, and Indians, have a very large imprint on how this route can be used.

It is hard to say, would Russia be able to lay pipeline to Iran for fuels, and then sell to the Iranians, who most likely would charge a bit more to send it to India?

But we don't know how the world of conflicts will work out yet. It is really hard with all the propaganda, to know just how bad Russia is hurting. It looks like they are beginning to demonstrate significant power against some "Western" nations.

I guess time will tell, but I have believed that the Columbus period is over, but a new Viking/Slavic era is likely to rise. But perhaps I am just another fool. We will see.

As for Northern Europe, North America, and the Caspian trade nations, I would not be sure that we may not ever be in an alliance with Russia again, and who knows about Iran. I know there is a mutual dislike, but things change.

I think the things that I see that I like are future options to work with various groups.

It is not all controlled by one cultural zone that wants to be lazy and collect money and power for very little value-added activity.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-07-07 09:35:13)

Void · 2022-07-09 21:01:25

It happened again.

I am listening to this video on my phone, and though it was interesting, so I queried for it on my computer.

Query: "Utube, david goldman the economic consequences of the russian-ukraine war, "westminsterinstitute"

I found the video and posted it here, and then I tested it and got the message "This video is no longer available".

This is the second time this has happened.

I am still listening to the video on my phone.

Kind of fishy.

David P. Goldman "Spangler" at Asia times, is quite interesting, and very much an American.

https://asiatimes.com/

https://asiatimes.com/tag/spengler/

I guess I don't care. It has been obvious that there are some "Not Really Americans" running things lately. Which is why they are not looking after our interests.

Done.

So, after all, I finished the video, and they said that many videos may be on the WestMinisterInstitutes website.

Lets see.

https://westminster-institute.org/

https://westminster-institute.org/event … raine-war/

The answer is yes apparently, so the blockage is from the search engine, I guess.

It is very annoying because I tried to post a very interesting economic video, and the same thing happened.

So, I guess no more VOID boo-hoo

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-07-09 21:39:02)

Void · 2022-07-10 23:01:53

Well, this is actually from Peter Ziehan's tweets.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy … 022-06-27/
Quote:

A shale booster shot: 'Re-fracs' rise as cheap way to lift U.S. oil output
By Liz Hampton

So, once again, the rednecks warm and light my house, power my car, and keep the farms and industry that make my life worth living, and the wokes and their like continue to try to put me in hell as a Petroleum-Carbon true unrepentant sinner.

They also seem to want the last days of Rome and Athens to return. See "How civilizations die......."
https://www.amazon.com/How-Civilization … 159698273X

About the retracking, I have wondered why not to create thermal reservoirs from fracking. Now that might be green tech. Use solar heat and winter cold.

EOR:
https://ifsolutions.com/what-is-enhance … the%20rock.

CO2 used for EOR:
https://energypost.eu/carbon-capture-ca … ative-oil/

OK, now superheat the CO2 using solar thermal. That ought to get the oil moving. And then heat stored in the frack wells.

Now this from Finland again:
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2022/07/07/ … n-finland/
Quote:

Sand-based system for seasonal storage comes online in Finland

The company is called "Polar Night Energy".

Maybe we can frack where there is no oil, just to make a thermal reservoir and store CO2.
Places that do not have good winter solar, may have sufficient summer solar.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-07-10 23:16:43)

kbd512 · 2022-07-11 08:59:46

Void,

Most people don't know this, but 60% to 70% of the oil in a formation stays in the ground. Until about 5 years ago, we did not have the technology to get at it. With new designer liquid polymer technology, tailored to each individual formation type or well to release this otherwise trapped oil, we now have the production technology to go after it.

What does this mean?

Contrary to popular belief amongst the doomers, we are not running out of oil any time soon.

Are most of them aware of this or do they act as if it exists?

I doubt it. We're using it anyway, whether it agrees with their doomsday cult or not.

Why are we using it?

We don't need to drill nearly so many new wells, with all the monetary and environmental cost that entails.

Void · 2022-07-11 10:19:46

Excellent information kdb512.

You understand that I have worked along with a person from Texas and visited Texas, and I consider it all positive.

If I might use the phrase southern and Pseudo Roman, I would not be so much more indicating Texas than for instance New York, or Dublin, London, Paris, Rome, Athens, Cairo>>>

Ask yourself if these principalities of power are worthy to rule the entire world? Granted they are not without worth, and we should love to see them prosper, but they have risked the foolishness of the Roman Empire to force themselves into a human domain, that they cannot have the worth for the power. They may risk terrible losses. Consent is required. And not consent by rape or slavery.

In my opinion we are dealing with a double problem. 1) Updating our technology to be sustainable. 2) Dealing with Pseudo Roman Princesses, some who might be degenerate, (In my opinion), and Woke, and perhaps not female as just before culture understood it.

#2 is a parasite. #1 is treasure if we can get the unlock codes.

So, technological #1, and degenerate political, (In my opinion), #2.

I have a glimmer of hope for #1, God appears to be starting to deal with #2. If as I think is true, you profess to be an Atheist, then OK, consider it Karma, or the real nature of nature to not favor the weak and foolish.

Let's hope #2 can be delt with by reality, and we might move towards solving for #1.

I think I may have seen a chance for #1, I puke at having to try to deal with #2.

Some rocks are not fully Oxidized, probably both on Earth and Mars.

Here I will sort of think of Earth.

I worked where this was true, some time ago: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taconite

As you might have figured out, I grew up near such.

The iron concentrate of the ore is magnetic. The final output is not, as it has a different Oxidation state.

I am getting tired, so I will try to give a short view, maybe later more, and perhaps in another topic.

If you can Frack rock that is not totally Oxidized or Hydrated, you might push very hot fluids into that, and get a chemical reaction which may yield Hydrocarbons, sort of an induced serpentinization.

While we might inject CO2 to a degree, to give and store Carbon, we also might do steam as the more dominant factor.
Basically hoping to Oxidize rocks to produce Hydrogen.

https://oilonmars.blogspot.com/#:~:text … 0particles.
I don't validate or invalidate oil on Mars.

So, perhaps we might frack reduced rock to produce fuels, and perhaps even to contain Carbon.

And the frack wells might also be for storage of heat or even cold.

But I am tired.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-07-11 10:50:58)

kbd512 · 2022-07-11 16:34:42

Void,

A couple of quick notes (forgot to include some of this because I quickly noted "what's changed"):

1. As with most other physical and chemical processes, you do achieve 100% recovery efficiency, but anywhere from 20% to 40% of the remaining oil is recoverable using existing current technology. That is still an enormous amount of oil. So, think about 20% to 40% of all the oil we've ever extracted. All the existing wells are still there, waiting to be tapped. They do not disappear into oblivion after conventional production is completed. The bore holes are lined with concrete and even the Christmas Tree is still there in many cases.

2. Greater oil recovery has been demonstrated using second passes, longer extraction cycles, etc, but again, you take the path of least resistance first, which means going and extracting another 20% to 40% of the total available product, and then worrying about getting more after you've already revisited all the existing wells.

3. Beyond any of this, there are a plethora of complete wells that we never intended to produce from, because the crude is sour (contains too much Sulfur or Sulfur-compounds). All of this product is recoverable, it merely requires more processing steps, so the cost is higher. The engineers are not dummies, they go after all of the low-hanging fruit first, and current technology for finding the oil seams or pockets within shale formations is truly superb. Basically, unless it's something like deep water exploration with limited or marginal seismic data, we almost never drill a dry well. Every so often, though rarer and rarer these days, someone will drill on a hunch without first getting enough data, and sometimes they come up empty.

Regarding your questions:

1. No, I don't think rule should be by decree / edict, without the consent of the governed. Risks are always taken, no matter what we do, as even no action at all is still an action, but rule by fiat of the privileged few generally results in bad outcomes for everyone else. If all decision makers were equally subject to the consequences of their actions, then not even power and wealth would be a shield against bad decision making, which tends to have the effect of producing more thoughtful and conservative decision makers who are not so eager to leap into irreversible courses of actions that have the potential to result in bad outcomes for everyone.

As it relates to energy, I think higher forms of technology are generally good to have, so long as it actually does what it purports to do. If the people at the top are trying to force something into existence before it's ready for prime time, then the results could be and probably will be disastrous. It's not apparent to me that electronics and batteries are suitable replacements for liquid hydrocarbon fuels. From a basic math standpoint, it's a non-starter. I notice that nobody ever argues this point with me, yet there are plenty of people here who can do basic math. It may still make good sense for other reasons, but math is not one of them. You will pay more, the solution will be less capable in meaningful ways, and there will be significant environmental costs associated with electric-everything. This is ye olde "no free lunches in engineering" principle.

2. Every society has degenerates, but when the people cannot tell the difference between wise leaders and degenerates, for some strange reason the degenerates are typically able to concoct better emotional appeals that override reason and a sense of decency. In times past, even the degenerates had some sense of shame when it came to self-destructive behavior. We were not "proud" of being drunkards or obese or lechers or other forms of deviant behavior. It was a quirk of personality, an Achilles heel such as it were, something everyone else simply had to live with, but never something laudable, never to be praised or held up on a pedestal as an example of how to live your life.

Did I come to think that as a result of being raised as a Catholic, despite not wanting anything to do with the Catholic Church or any other organized religion from a very early age?

Possibly. I think it's far more likely that I saw my parents as good examples for how to live my life- not that I wanted to be them or precisely like them, but that the general themes and the way they conducted themselves was exemplary. And yes, they are both devout Christians, as were their parents. There is nothing "perfect" about them, but in general they seem to think of others before themselves, they did what they knew was right even when nobody was watching, and in general, society could count on them to be productive contributors.

The parents of my friends were also, in general, good examples. Some of them were never religious in any way, but still seemed to know the difference between right and wrong. As it pertains to the few who didn't, it was pretty obvious that something was wrong there. Their lives were not good examples to follow, at least in regards to their not-so-great behavioral traits. I never saw even one example of "perfection" from anybody's parents. Basically, we all have our character flaws. I see that as part of being human. If you have no flaws, then you're not a product of human thinking or behavior. Anyone who thinks they're the exception is part of the problem.

The greatest issue I see is entitlement. Few of the younger generations demonstrate appreciation for how much we all have, thanks to the tireless efforts of our ancestors and other members of society. Nobody who refuses to do for themselves is entitled to anything. They are only kept alive by the charity of better men and women. I think charity is a good and noble thing, but at the point it creates or perpetuates a sense of entitlement amongst those who have received so much, but do not give back, it becomes a burden to society. The sense of gratitude for receiving anything at all, from other people who clearly do not owe what they have given to you, is what I think is missing. Courtesy is also conspicuously absent, but I think the two are tied together. When there is both gratitude and courtesy, you have far fewer social problems and far fewer anti-social personalities.

So...

Policy-wise, we fixate less on what we don't have, work with what we do have, and make lemonade out of all the lemons.

Calliban · 2022-07-12 04:12:25

Kbd512, surfactant injection has been around for a long time, at least since the 90s, along with water injection, CO2 injection and steam injection. These methods exist and are used, but they add cost to each barrel of crude. The Saudis have been using water injection in Ghawar since the mid 1990s. CO2 injection was being trialed in the North Sea before the shale boom even started. Surfactant and CO2 injection reduce oil viscosity; steam injection does the same using temperature. Water and liquid CO2 displace oil due to greater density.

All of these things work to a degree, but they are all expensive. They wouldn't be used at all if there wasn't a shortage of new producing fields. You make it it sound as if the existance of these things means that there isn't a problem with oil shortage and wasn't in the first place. You have it backward. The reality is, no one would have bothered developing surfactants and other EOR and no one would be using these methods if they had new fields to develop. The fact that these things are being used now on a large scale should tell you that there isn't much time left. But an objective look at oil production data would tell you that anyway.
https://www.postcarbon.org/new-u-s-reco … roven-not/

Global conventional oil production has been flat since 2005, an almost 20 year long plateu with zero production growth rate. Those 20 years have also been a period of extremely high oil prices compared to what came before. They should have encouraged a huge expansion in oil production capacity, if such potential existed. They didn't. The only large new oil production we have seen since 2005 is unconventional production in North America, which is largely tapped out already, with three out of four producing basins now past peak. The shale boom bought the world another decade in which to prepare for peak oil. This was was largely pissed away by ESG fantasists.

The Doomers, as you call them, were 100% right. They predicted that global oil production would peak between 2005 and 2030, depending on input assumptions. Had COVID not arrived, peak liquids may have been delayed until 2025. But COVID and Russian adventurism mean that 2018 is now almost certainly the year of peak production. Cheap oil is gone. The future is expensive oil and lower and declining oil production overall. Surfactants are one of several technologies that allow us to collectively cushion the decline rate of individual fields. But they don't change the trajectory.

Last edited by Calliban (2022-07-12 04:42:26)

Void · 2022-07-12 09:39:16

I appreciate the posts that were given here.

It is true that EOR is less useful than a virgin oil field. But it gives us breathing room to try to get to the next thing.

It may turn out that Petroleum fields were a curse, but yet a blessing. This is evident for the countries that only had to use sticks and stones to appropriate them with nationalism and sticks and stones.

But it is also perhaps likely for the whole world.

There is also the curse of the south. A plentiful agriculture makes domination more important than co-operation.

Chad and Tyrone end up breeding too many women as they have special skills for that and brutality and murder.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Ch … &FORM=VIRE

None of that matters for my life, I am much to old and don't care that much to be migtow.

An example that might not be too insulting to others who don't' tolerate criticism. But the video is useful.

I will pick on the British. I myself am part Scotch and English myself (And some significant Swede). And a few other things.

My current belief is that the Southern English got to win often as the relative fertile fields, could support a vertical hierarchy.

I believe that the way this structure is that the collection of females help to empower jerks to get on top. Then in return they expect favors. Then the rest of the men are surfs. The women can entertain Hypergamy, so that is sort of a sweet dream for them that may induce them to participate in this way.

So, I have noticed that British culture in general has contempt for the male. Unless he may have high level special powers.

Historically the southern English ruling class wanted nothing from Industry. They despised it. If you were that ruling class, in general you would be Anglican, and your dream would be to be a Gentleman Farmer. If you were not of that class then in general you would be of a Protestant religion and likely more north. And those could not attend the colleges, where the elites specialized in dead languages, to display that they were truly intellectual.

So, then industry was left to those who could not be in the ruling class, and southern England in general ruled the vicinity of the islands.

This is my current notion of history.

America suffers from this as well periodically.

So, in our case, the National Space Program has in part been turned into a money churn for the wealthy just like many other tax supported structures.

To be a Chad or Tyrone, you could use language skills, as most men are less then women in that regaurd. You might use that to charm/deceive them, or at least qualify as a challenge worth the game.

My thinking is that evolution would breed women who understand that men with skills with sticks and stones, cruelty and murder, will more likely take goods from their victims, and so such a woman has more hope to get something from them than from a looser who tries to be industrially productive. (When possible, then Chad and Tyrone will take the industrialists stuff, and the woman can try to tap into that).

So, it is my current thinking that there is a sweet spot somewhat away from the easy spot (London), in this case to the north, where prudent and industrious behaviors are coupled to an attitude and need for social co-operation.

This could occur by other means in warmer places. but where you have a centralized source of wealth you will likely get the Sticks and Stones boys, and their special woman cohort in charge. And worthy qualities will not be so much valued.

And now enter the "Greens". They don't like industry, and they choose the color "Green" which also by the way has an association with Fascism, in my opinion.

It is my opinion that the Nazi and the Fascist's were both attempts to revive the Roman Empire, they were not the invention of the Northern Europeans, as some might what to insinuate.

What I was working towards was to make my case for understanding reality but apparently I can shut this down. I will simply say that in my opinion the Greens want Feudalism. Not industry. And why would they not? Some are confused, and some very well suited for that possibility.

But my suspicion is that they will not get their wishes as the peoples of the North will not give them what they need to allow for that.

I am going elsewhere for the technological part I thought I might put here.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-07-12 10:21:05)

kbd512 · 2022-07-12 10:10:32

Calliban,

It's not water, it's not CO2, and it's not something like sodium stearate (a surfactant).

Polymer Flooding for Enhanced Oil Recovery

This is something they've been messing with since the mid to late 70's, IIRC, but as you stated, it tended to be very expensive, and infrequently used as a result. Various researchers took another crack at the problem about 10 years ago and managed to do a better job tweaking the chemistry of the liquid polymer, which oddly enough, started making it more economical to actually use. Liquid polymer has been used in limited cases since the 1980s, but relatively uncommon for the reasons you stated. It was more of a science experiment back then.

As far as "peak oil" is concerned, the doomers have been predicting that for decades. Whenever their predictions are wrong, there's always an excuse. If you predict the end of the world enough times, then eventually you'll be correct. That doesn't make the prediction useful when it's almost certainly inaccurate. 2/3rds of all money invested into drilling has been removed in the past 10 years.

The doomers have been so 100% wrong, that the only way to make their prediction "right" was through environmental regulations preventing new drilling, denying funding from banks for more drilling activities, and actively punishing oil companies. They're doing the same thing to the oil industry that they've already done to the nuclear power industry.

Can you remove 2/3rds of all investment funds and still produce the same amount of oil?

That is a serious question which you have yet to answer. All of those impediments have been artificially created within the past 10 years. It took 10 years for that decision to "catch up" to us.

If I removed 2/3rds of all investment funding into car production or health care, what would that do to availability?

If you can answer that question honestly, as it relates to nuclear power, then recognize when the same nonsense has been applied to the oil production industry.

If I stopped spending 2/3rds of the money I spend on food, then I would look like a concentration camp victim. Unfortunately, I don't fit the morbidly obese American stereotype. If this happens to me, then I'm not long for this world.

We are not running out of oil. We have already run out of investment dollars into oil production. Current production level looks like what it does, based upon 1/3rd of the total investment dollars that existed in 2008. The fact that we're still cranking out as much supply is nothing short of a logistics miracle.

Void · 2022-07-18 09:05:58

I remain interested in this type of topic. I consider that the "Western" notion of the "West" is too Latin centric. No need for a fit about it, but there is a whole other world which is Euro-Asiatic. I don't believe that our east coast establishment can maintain a balanced notion of what should be. And this in part can be how our attempts to achieve objectives stumble.

The Euro-African notions of what America should be, makes us weak in the other half of reality.

Much of our history occurred in a Euro-Asian environment, but the east coast establishment try's all the time to make themselves as the proper template and the only one for what America should be.

But this is just potential educational materials: I don't run the train or a boat or certainly not a country.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=IN … M%3DHDRSC3

But these things interest me.

Done.

kbd512 · 2022-07-18 14:32:07

Void,

We're slowly witnessing the global trade breakdown. Nations that were already friendly, such as Russia and India or Russia and China, are more closely partnering with each other, because they don't want to get cut off by the next war. China is no doubt reevaluating how important Taiwan is in the grand scheme of things. Russia is slowly bleeding out military hardware in Ukraine. NATO is more or less unified for the first time, and it's primarily not some sort of US-led effort. America / Canada / United Kingdom / Australia / France / Germany / Japan are working on updated trade deals. We were long past due for an overhaul of "the system". Lots of ways of doing things just don't make much sense any longer. There's not much we can do about the terminal demographics of Russia and China or many countries in Europe for that matter. Globalization and consumption-led growth are lost causes. Maybe expanding out into the solar system will succeed where globalization failed.

Void · 2022-07-19 05:48:27

I can agree.

Done

Void · 2022-07-24 11:17:31

OK, about oil. He spoke today!

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Th … &FORM=VIRE

Just more fun.

Done.

Void · 2022-07-26 18:06:15

More about metals:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UN6F53VN4lo

Done.

Void · 2022-08-08 18:39:39

This is interesting: https://zeihan.com/the-un-recession/

I would note that in a situation of certain types of inflation, a country that "Has" certain things may benefit as a group entity. For instance, the USA and Canada do have energy including Hydrocarbon. The value of these apparently have gone up.

Similar can be said for countries that have enough or surplus food production. Although the US may have reduced fertilizer use because of its price.

But we also have relatively low natural gas prices, and so might produce Nitrogen based fertilizers, which of course could be another asset, collectively giving buoyancy to our situation.

The dollar is a puzzle in an inflation situation. Is there something I do not understand?

www.bigcharts.com

Key in UUP, and UDN.

A dollar index, and an inverse dollar index I believe.

The Dollar going up may be a result of foreign money pouring into North America at this time if I am to believe Peter Zeihan.

So, I think the dollar is getting stronger, but we have inflation as well? Curious.

And housing. If you have a paid off house, at least in the US, that can generally be helpful to someone like me who is retired, at least so far. We still have enough demand apparently, at least so far.

As for the Stock Market, a certain amount of inflation is actually good for company earnings as the companies can pass their costs off to the consumers in those situations. We are a bit high just now, but the price of oil has come down a bit, maybe inflation will come down a few notches, except if indeed Peter Zeihan is correct and Russian oil production is to be cut off to a large extent.

Yes, I know, this situation is not working well for all individuals personal bottom line, but at least our country does not have everything against it at this time. Most young able people can get jobs with raises under these circumstances.

The people to have some concern for are those who cannot work, and who have no assets to increase in value with inflation.

Done

Last edited by Void (2022-08-08 18:58:51)

Calliban · 2022-08-14 15:12:15

I have been reading Peter Zeihan's book 'The Accidental Super Power'. I had always been aware that water based transportation was superior to any land based alternative from the point of view of energy consumption and overall cost per tonne-mile. I hadn't quite realised how big the disparity was. Peter puts it thus:

Peter Zeihan wrote:

'Modern container ships can transport goods for about $0.17 per container-mile, compaired to semi-trailer trucks that do it for $2.40, including the cost of the locomotion mode as well as operating costs in both instances.'
'But even this incredible disparity in cost assumes access to an American-style multilane highway, the sort that simply doesn't exist in some 95% of the planet. It also assumes that the road cargo is transported by semi, rather than less efficient vehicles, like UPS trucks.'
'It certainly ignores your family car. It also does not consider the cost of maintenance of the medium of transport itself. The US interstate highway system, for example, responsible for only quarter of road traffic miles driven, has an annual maintenance cost of $160 billion. By contrast, the Army Corp of Engineers annual budget for all US waterways maintenance is only $2.7 billion, while oceans are flat out free.'
...'The practical ratio of road to water transport inflates to anywhere from 40:1 in populated flatlands to in excess of 70:1 in sparsely populated highlands.'

Green fanatics obsess over battery electric cars and automated electric trucks. But electric trucks are only realistic over short ranges. And it is hard to make a case for these on environmental grounds, given the embodied energy and materials contained within the battery. Railways are more energy efficient than trucks, but even a railway cannot match a seagoing container ship in terms of energy efficiency or overall economy. The advantage that freight ships possess over any land based transportation system is enormous. This gives countries with population centres on large coastlines a competitive advantage. The existance of the US inland waterways, extends that advantage to the entire eastern half of the US. Large canals provide a means of extending the energy and economic benefits of sea based transportation to locations far inland. But it is clearly only practical in flatland areas.

On Mars, there are no oceans, or seas or rivers for our colonists to exploit. But pipelines, carrying brine or liquid CO2, can provide many of the benefits of canals. Such pipelines can be used to carry floating barges, at 1-2× human walking speed. These barges do not need pilots and can be carried by the flow of the liquid. The topography of Mars makes this most applicable in the northern hemisphere. This tells us that the north is where most of the population centres and manufacturing capacity will be built. Pipelines carrying floating containers will perform many of the functions that ocean going ships perform on Earth.

Last edited by Calliban (2022-08-14 15:48:30)

kbd512 · 2022-08-14 17:37:34

Calliban,

If we built inland pipelines to carry dry goods, enclosed in "container pods" to deliver goods to various distribution centers around the country, then I think it's a pretty safe bet that we could do electric trucks, but it would still be more efficient to extend those pipelines to within a mile or two of the final delivery location. At that point, compressed air-powered cargo vans are sufficient. This might be the only economical way to ship low-value goods like Iron ore or grain or groceries or plastic crap, in an energy-poor future.

I don't know exactly how big the pipe has to be to deliver most consumer goods, but a 4 foot diameter is probably sufficient for most consumers goods except for assembled furniture and motor vehicles. Even steel I-beams for construction could be delivered this way so long as the turns are very gradual. Concrete could be delivered dry and mixed onsite. We could use external permanent magnet trolley units to move the container pods through the pipeline without contact, such that this system still works when a pod is headed uphill.

Calliban · 2022-08-15 08:06:00

kbd512 wrote:

Calliban,
If we built inland pipelines to carry dry goods, enclosed in "container pods" to deliver goods to various distribution centers around the country, then I think it's a pretty safe bet that we could do electric trucks, but it would still be more efficient to extend those pipelines to within a mile or two of the final delivery location. At that point, compressed air-powered cargo vans are sufficient. This might be the only economical way to ship low-value goods like Iron ore or grain or groceries or plastic crap, in an energy-poor future.
I don't know exactly how big the pipe has to be to deliver most consumer goods, but a 4 foot diameter is probably sufficient for most consumers goods except for assembled furniture and motor vehicles. Even steel I-beams for construction could be delivered this way so long as the turns are very gradual. Concrete could be delivered dry and mixed onsite. We could use external permanent magnet trolley units to move the container pods through the pipeline without contact, such that this system still works when a pod is headed uphill.

If the pods are neutrally bouyant, then linear motors can propel them uphill with relative ease. However, this does require that pods are water tight. The traditional solution is to employ hydraulic lifts or locks. That sort of thing is proven to work, but it adds capital cost.

Four feet in diameter would be sufficient for most loads. It would mean unpacking iso-containers and repackaging the contents in 4' wide containers. Or simply using 4' containers in the first place. The logistically easiest solution would be to make the tubes wide enough to take iso containers, which are around 8' tall. But that would require large diameter pipes, which increases capital cost.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermodal_container

As globalisation is breaking down anyway, it may be sensible to redefine standards to allow for a more optimal balance of capital and operating costs. The ideal capsule needs to be easy to load and unload. We could make them from fibre glass with an external steel frame and seal them via an end cap. Ideally, they would be rectangular cross section, to allow them to stack on a container ship and fit onto a flat bed trailer. Containers need to be suutable for switching between modes with relative ease. Using a crane, we need to be able to lift these things out of a receipt pond and onto a rail trailer or flat bed truck and vise versa.

Pipeline capsules would appear to share many characteristics with rail. With the pipe we have reduced capital costs and lower energy costs, but at the expense of lower speed. I guess there are some situations where that is acceptable and others where it is not. My original idea was to use jet pumps to propel containers. In that situation, a simple mechanical wind mill can push capsules along the pipe. But linear motors are a better solution so long as the electric grid provides reliable power, as it allows predictable delivery times and better energy efficiency.

In terms of how the pipes are made, I think there is some flexibility. The capsules would rarely touch the sides, so we could use cast concrete, steel or polypropylene. Or maybe concrete with a polypropylene internal sleeve to keep friction factor down. On Mars, we are more likely to use L-CO2 than water. Although some brines are still liquid at Martian average temperatures, they have the viscosity of syrup. At 230K, L-CO2 has lower viscosity than water has at room temperature. But the pipe must be pressurised to several bar to keep the CO2 liquid. That would neccesitate steel pipes. On the plus side, corrosion would not be an issue and the low viscosity of L-CO2 should allow very low pumping power.

Last edited by Calliban (2022-08-15 08:32:13)

Calliban · 2022-08-21 15:43:21

Not Peter Zeihan, but Robert Zubrin's speech in South Korea. I always find Zubrin to be inspiring, although his presentation skills could use a bit of polishing.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cD2jN--7km4

He makes some very pursuasive points. Mars colonisation could inspire a new generation of scientists and engineers, just as Apollo did in the 60s. Technologies developed on Mars could have spin offs that benefit Earth based civilisation. I think both points are true enough. On this board, we have developed all manner of creative concepts that could ultimately benefit people on Mother Earth if we develop them for Mars.

Void · 2022-08-21 18:56:01

A nice presentation Calliban.

I recall reading that an Arab claimed that;
The Arabs have the power of the tung.
The Chin have the power of the hand. (Han?)
The Frank has the power of the mind.

Everybody that I have listened to from western cultures, has word stumble if they are very creative and inventive.

But I only despise the people of words, if they use their power to enslave other people. A massive temptation for them, I am sure. Maybe I have great forgiveness if they are fallen in this way, but it would not prevent me from working against slavery.

As far as I can see slavery involves brute violence, and lots of words of control and deception.

I think it a compliment to say that someone can communicate but does not have the superpower of satanic domination against others with words and brute violence.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-08-21 19:00:21)

Void · 2022-09-04 11:10:37

I suppose this sad thing can go here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdtWB8sE4q0
Quote:

You're Going to See a Lot of Starvation!!! | Jordan Peterson 2022

Very sad. I hate to say it but I think some of our white collar people are totally stupid, but having pieces of paper that say that they should rule.

Sad.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-09-04 11:11:13)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-09-13 08:21:33

If you make hundreds of predictions or thousands I guess after a while some of them come true

Nostradamus predicts King Charles will abdicate with 'mysterious king' to take throne
https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/nostradamus-p … ne-1705636

I feel he is wrong and correct for example I think the demographics, birth rate thing will hit China but not yet, for now Germany, Japan, Italy seem to be doing far worse. I understand he sells books and told people to invest in India as it will be the next Superpower but I have been hearing China is going to collapse since the late 1980s, or at least 90s, any week now, any day, maybe next month it will full on Chinese Communist Socialism collapse... maybe one day if you wiat long enough, they will get things correct in 2255 and all the little predicted Nostradamus trends De-globalisation prediction comes true. His new street guy esoteric hippie look is kinda better than his old used car salesman look, his mentor the Globalist Hungarian wrote The Coming War with Japan is a book that argued that another conflict between the United States and Japan was inevitable in 1992?

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2022-09-13 11:06:28)

Void · 2022-09-14 14:00:25

This is important to consider.

I really do believe that for things like Shale Oil and gas, somebody did indeed "Play" the left.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HehR4jo0XfE

Done.

Calliban · 2022-09-21 07:39:24

Peter Zeihan on the problems with green tech.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=irWb5QsoYuE

Complex supply chains, huge material demands. What stands out most is the fact the the performance of wind and solar generation varies enormously depending upon where they are built. This isn't an option for most countries, because their resources are too weak.

My own stomping ground is Scotland and Northern England. Wind speed is frequently gail force here and wind power natural resources are some of the best in the world. But still there are days when wind turbines get barely enough wind to turn. Either you have gas turbines to cover those periods or you get long blackouts.

Last edited by Calliban (2022-09-21 07:43:44)

New Mars Forums

Announcement

#76 2022-07-07 08:58:09

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#77 2022-07-07 09:24:29

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#78 2022-07-09 21:01:25

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#79 2022-07-10 23:01:53

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#80 2022-07-11 08:59:46

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#81 2022-07-11 10:19:46

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#82 2022-07-11 16:34:42

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#83 2022-07-12 04:12:25

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#84 2022-07-12 09:39:16

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#85 2022-07-12 10:10:32

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#86 2022-07-18 09:05:58

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#87 2022-07-18 14:32:07

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#88 2022-07-19 05:48:27

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#89 2022-07-24 11:17:31

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#90 2022-07-26 18:06:15

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#91 2022-08-08 18:39:39

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#92 2022-08-14 15:12:15

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#93 2022-08-14 17:37:34

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#94 2022-08-15 08:06:00

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#95 2022-08-21 15:43:21

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#96 2022-08-21 18:56:01

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#97 2022-09-04 11:10:37

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#98 2022-09-13 08:21:33

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#99 2022-09-14 14:00:25

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

#100 2022-09-21 07:39:24

Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

Board footer