Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

Void · 2020-05-02 11:40:17

I am presuming that some of you are a bit bored with this stay at home stuff.
So this update from Peter Zeihan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygrurjeTfTU

Some of the conversation makes me uncomfortable where he sort of speaks of potential negatives for some nations or regions. But it is an interesting video, at least for me.

He does not mention Canada specifically this time, but I notice that this Coronavirus thing has, (I think), changed the path of things up there.
I never thought of the Alberta Independence party as anything except them trying to get leverage with Ottawa.

Now for the moment it looks like they don't have that much leverage. That's OK, as I think it is easier to deal with a unified Canada, than to deal with it if it were balkanized.

As for the Oil price war, I feel sorry for our shale producers, but beyond that suffering, the USA has a fair position, and so North America as well.

We can stuff our strategic reserves with cheep Saudi Oil, and yes shale suffers, but then when the Saudi machine knocks parts of Russian and other oil producers production off line for a few years, when they then attempt to then cut production and raise prices, we have those reserves, and shale supposedly can come back in months or perhaps a couple of years. So we sort of get screwed the least, except for the shale producers, who will suffer, and some who will go bankrupt.

I imagine there will be a lot of lobbying from shale producers and their states for some protection. I am pretty much neutral on that if the government wants to go there, then so be it.

Last edited by Void (2024-05-17 15:44:05)

Terraformer · 2020-05-03 03:00:09

If 20% of oil production is taken offline for a few years, that's going to do a lot of damage to the world economy. Which would in turn suppress demand, so the Saudi's may not be able to raise prices as much as they hope to.

What does the world look like with 20% less oil?

tahanson43206 · 2020-05-03 06:34:46

For Terraformer re #2

That would be 20% toward where we need to end up.

Petroleum (in my opinion) is far more valuable as a lubricant and feedstock for manufacturing than it is as a fuel.

(th)

kbd512 · 2020-05-03 08:19:27

Terraformer,

Until farming equipment runs on sunshine or stiff breezes instead of diesel, 20% less energy looks like another depression.

tahanson43206,

Do you have a replacement energy source for oil ready to go?

We're not going to live the way we did before the industrial revolution to appease the belief system of people who have thus far produced no practical alternatives to oil and gas. They're burning lignite coal in Germany when the Sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow. When 2.5kWh/kg batteries materialize, then we can replace gasoline an diesel. Maybe people who claim to believe in math and science will come around to the idea that a 70% efficient fuel cell is still better than a 35% efficient combustion engine... when 2.5kWh/kg batteries still don't exist 10 years from now.

Void · 2020-05-03 09:59:07

Peter Zeihan posted this today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsDGui2 … e=youtu.be
Hope I don't get in trouble for posting it here.

So, that you don't misunderstand, I am sort of neutral on what he establishes as his calculations for future developments. However I am very interested. By my own means, I understood, prior to myself even being aware of him, that western South America, and Mexico and indeed western North America were going to emerge as the new place to do business, leaving places like China somewhat behind. My methods are more like "The Fourth Turning", (But not the same).

So, especially when I am mostly isolated in my home, I want interesting things to watch.

Last edited by Void (2020-05-03 10:06:56)

Void · 2020-05-03 10:11:39

I am also interested in what else the Coronavirus is doing per some of the Persian Gulf nations oil price war.

I am wondering if we want to let them ruin both our shale industry, and our alternative energy (And electric cars) industries. Is there anything we could or should do about it?

It just seems wrong to me to let them get away with it in the long term.

----

Now don't think I am gloating, because I am not. I enjoy Shales previous success, and that of alternative energy, and electric cars.

But it seems ironic to me, because I come from a sort of rust belt state, that where we were not given protection from international competition, in my mind there is some amount of desire to give protection to industry that for the most part is in so called "Right to work" states.

I am not pushing any political agenda. It is just sort of bizarre.

I did ok in my working life. Was Union in both of my full time jobs. I know what the bad parts of that are. I also know about featherbedding in non-union ranks. And as I have said, I have no agenda per that issue. By the way I was required to be Union in both cases in order to be employed.

The worm has turned, for the moment. No gloating, I just would have never predicted it.

Last edited by Void (2020-05-03 10:14:56)

kbd512 · 2020-05-03 15:02:33

Void,

I'm 100% in favor of using cleaner energy sources whenever it's feasible. If it's not feasible, then we either need science to provide new innovations to create those cleaner energy sources or we need people to accept that what they want isn't compatible with what science and engineering has achieved. That's the difference between thinking like an engineer who is after an attainable result versus thinking like a cheerleader who is after a specific result, and so is also oblivious to the numbers posted on the score board.

I'm still waiting on solar panels that produce electricity when the Sun is not shining, wind turbines that produce electricity when the wind isn't blowing, and batteries that are equivalent to a gallon of gasoline on a pound-for-pound basis. Nothing of the sort has been delivered, so we're either cheerleading for an energy scarcity model wherein the poor people, as always, are disproportionately negatively affected or we're not approaching this alternative energy availability problem with realistic expectations.

What I find utterly hilarious is the notion that countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia can deliberately engage in price-fixing schemes, yet we have illiberal "environmentalist" types who then have the gall to say, "Well, that just proves that American oil companies can't compete in a free market", or their other favorite sophomoric standby, "That just proves that free market capitalism doesn't work". I guess if we ignore the fact that no free market principles were at play there and we had majority state-run monopolistic enterprises dumping their products on the market at less than what it actually cost them to produce, then yeah, we can't compete with state-run monopolies that pass on those costs to their tax payers who are propping up those state-run enterprises. That works really well right up until the people in those countries have no more tax money to throw at the price fixing scheme, whereupon everybody is now broke, out of work, and poorer than when they started those shenanigans. What a brilliant economic and political philosophy to apply to the master resource.

No wonder our ivory tower academics can't even begin to figure out how to alleviate poverty, no matter how much money is thrown at the problem. They cheerlead the very behaviors that cause systemic poverty and then finger point at anyone and everyone else to avoid taking credit for the results of their vindictive behavior against poor people. Maybe we "deserve" that since so many people buy into that economic sophistry. I think the ultimate answer is to keep the "merchants of despair", as Dr. Zubrin calls them, as far away from political power as we can manage.

Void · 2020-05-03 16:34:37

KBD512, I fairly on board with you.

And to some large degree I have become somewhat a disciple of Dr. Robert Zubrin. For instance I think that he is right about farming parts of the sea. Mariculture I believe. It would provide food, get rid of some CO2, and provide livelihood for some people, and also take some of the pressure off of land environments.

As for your last post, yes pretty close to my notions. I am not against shale, far from it.

It is tempting to be paranoid, and think that perhaps China and the Gulf states had a plan that got us here. Can't prove it, I really just think the Gulf States, saw their advantage and took it after the Corona got loose and killed demand, and Russia refused to cut production.

But now what do we do? If we put tariffs on imported oil, as we have done some Steel and Aluminum, that does tend to distort the market.

I believe that for the Steel and Aluminum a national security issue was a concern.

Oil could be a national security concern.

But cheep Saudi and other oil could be a stimulus for the world economies.

We also need to be concerned about laid off oil workers. What to do?

I have a notion. It is only that. A trial balloon.

I am hoping that this idea would keep some oil workers employed, some shale companies solvent, and eventually put the fear of God into the Gulf oil states.

Keep in mind this is a first try.

So, in watching Peter Zeihan, I understand that sometimes shale oil companies, drill wells but do not frack them. They frack them later.

Perhaps the shale companies could be encouraged to drill the wells, but not frack them. Encouraged if they can put such drilled wells up for collateral, for low interest loans, perhaps from the government. Then they would have more capital to do so even more.

This would be like a strategic reserve, that we could get on line much faster, when the Saudi and their friends decide to try to restrict oil flow and get high prices.

Like a big stick really.

So, we can make them think about it. We get their cheep oil to boot the world economy(s) back up. They are spending down their treasury. We keep some oil workers employed, and some companies more solvent.

It's a first try.

Last edited by Void (2020-05-04 11:58:51)

Void · 2020-05-04 11:59:31

As an example, Saudi wants $80-$85 oil, for their budget.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News … udget.html
Quote:

IMF: Saudi Arabia Needs $80-85 Oil Price To Balance 2019 Budget

Other Persian Gulf producers are somewhere not too far from that.

I am guessing that businesses that supply shale oil drillers/frackers must be suffering financially, so there must be a deflation in their prices.
So wells could be drilled now for a relatively low price, and it would be an investment that would pay off for sure in the future, if we presume that eventually the Persian Gulf countries will have to cry Uncle. (SAM).

So, a good thing for Uncle Sam to sponsor with low interest loans I think. Keep the shale oil businesses in business, employ oil workers, and profit later when the Persian Gulf nations do say Uncle Sam.

Smirk (I am asking for it ain't I?)

It's international political leverage as well.

Last edited by Void (2020-05-04 12:04:54)

kbd512 · 2020-05-09 08:33:58

Void,

While we're waiting for Lithium batteries to materialize with heretofore unseen energy densities, just to give everyone a small utilitarian electric vehicle who doesn't live within easy access of public transportation, and to achieve heretofore unseen levels of Lithium recycling, whilst recognizing that there's not enough Lithium in known reserves on this planet merely to give everyone a small utilitarian electric vehicle, much less provide grid level storage, I think use of oil and gas are completely necessary. US shale oil is the cleanest type of crude we have access to, for those concerned with how clean or dirty using oil happens to be.

Leading scientists set out resource challenge of meeting net zero emissions in the UK by 2050

From the article:

The challenges set out in the letter are:
The metal resource needed to make all cars and vans electric by 2050 and all sales to be purely battery electric by 2035. To replace all UK-based vehicles today with electric vehicles (not including the LGV and HGV fleets), assuming they use the most resource-frugal next-generation NMC 811 batteries, would take 207,900 tonnes cobalt, 264,600 tonnes of lithium carbonate (LCE), at least 7,200 tonnes of neodymium and dysprosium, in addition to 2,362,500 tonnes copper. This represents, just under two times the total annual world cobalt production, nearly the entire world production of neodymium, three quarters the world’s lithium production and at least half of the world’s copper production during 2018. Even ensuring the annual supply of electric vehicles only, from 2035 as pledged, will require the UK to annually import the equivalent of the entire annual cobalt needs of European industry.
The worldwide impact: If this analysis is extrapolated to the currently projected estimate of two billion cars worldwide, based on 2018 figures, annual production would have to increase for neodymium and dysprosium by 70%, copper output would need to more than double and cobalt output would need to increase at least three and a half times for the entire period from now until 2050 to satisfy the demand.
Energy cost of metal production: This choice of vehicle comes with an energy cost too. Energy costs for cobalt production are estimated at 7000-8000 kWh for every tonne of metal produced and for copper 9000 kWh/t. The rare-earth energy costs are at least 3350 kWh/t, so for the target of all 31.5 million cars that requires 22.5 TWh of power to produce the new metals for the UK fleet, amounting to 6% of the UK’s current annual electrical usage. Extrapolated to 2 billion cars worldwide, the energy demand for extracting and processing the metals is almost 4 times the total annual UK electrical output
Energy cost of charging electric cars: There are serious implications for the electrical power generation in the UK needed to recharge these vehicles. Using figures published for current EVs (Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe), driving 252.5 billion miles uses at least 63 TWh of power. This will demand a 20% increase in UK generated electricity.
Challenges of using ‘green energy’ to power electric cars: If wind farms are chosen to generate the power for the projected two billion cars at UK average usage, this requires the equivalent of a further years’ worth of total global copper supply and 10 years’ worth of global neodymium and dysprosium production to build the windfarms.
Solar power is also problematic – it is also resource hungry; all the photovoltaic systems currently on the market are reliant on one or more raw materials classed as “critical” or “near critical” by the EU and/ or US Department of Energy (high purity silicon, indium, tellurium, gallium) because of their natural scarcity or their recovery as minor-by-products of other commodities. With a capacity factor of only ~10%, the UK would require ~72GW of photovoltaic input to fuel the EV fleet; over five times the current installed capacity. If CdTe-type photovoltaic power is used, that would consume over thirty years of current annual tellurium supply.
Both these wind turbine and solar generation options for the added electrical power generation capacity have substantial demands for steel, aluminium, cement and glass.

Void · 2020-05-09 09:55:11

KDB512, I am not shy about using petrochemicals.

I am in alignment with Dr. Robert Zubrin about using https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariculture, one side effect of which can be the capture, and reduction of CO2 from Ocean water which would also remove it from the atmosphere. This would be done while generating food. It would also generate jobs for people.

I am not against alternative energy, but for one thing I think it is totally foolish to think that we should never procure energy by combustion of petrochemicals. It is just that perhaps we should use photosynthesis to moderate the results. Much generated biomass will end up on the Ocean floor, and much will stay there.

My own feeling is that the anti-humanist urges in the population are religious in nature. They operate in that sort of a fashion.

I also assert the suspicion, that the leakage of alpha type personalities into our nation from the Old World is part of the problem. These are people who want an unsolvable problem, so that they can assert that the general public needs greater regulation. And of course what they are after is to be in charge of a political football.

They are not creators of wealth, they just want be in charge of (Own) people below them. It is a urge their type has.

Where as the East has criticized the west for being "Materialistic", I criticize them for being "Slave Mongers".

I was to Texas for a week in March. Met some nice people, was impressed. Was confused as to why the women were not all 6 foot, 6 inches tall.

I liked what I saw. Don't much like the Jerks that want to own us.

Last edited by Void (2020-05-09 10:01:12)

Void · 2020-05-09 10:12:20

By the way, the previous post made me think of a temporary solution to the said buildup of CO2 in the atmosphere.

I do believe the bottom waters of the ocean will stay there for centuries.

If CO2 must be sequestered, then for a price, say excess "Peak" off shore wind energy, CO2 could be degassed from the upper layers of ocean water, with a vacuum process, and then compressed in to lower cold descending layers of water. Say in the North Sea.

Of course that will never satisfy the alpha's as they require a problem that cannot be solved without regulating (Owning People), that they can then rank above in society.

But as an emergency measure, (If there really is such an emergency), it is available.

The cold ocean water must migrate all the way towards the equator, before it can get warmed up and rise up and release the CO2. I think that would take a very long time.

GW Johnson · 2020-05-09 12:15:57

Wind is already substantially cheaper than coal, and competitive with natural gas, or we wouldn't have so much of it in Texas. Its remaining major problem is intermittency, which requires a grid-scale storage solution. Until then, it cannot safely be more than about 15-20% of the energy source mix. And it is not.

Solar has not quite reached that point in Texas, but is very close. The initial regional grid-scale solar farm projects have been funded privately and are being built. The same intermittency is involved, although day/night is pretty fundamental.

So, why not solve the grid-scale storage problem with a Manhattan project-type effort, and then let these technologies take over gradually by market advantage? Is that not the essence of what public-private partnership should be about?

The true problem is now that there is no public money left to do this. Everything (and then some) has gone into fighting the economic devastation caused by the pandemic.

But, perhaps there is an "out". Hire some of the unemployed to work on the storage solution (among other things), as a CCC-like approach to addressing pandemic-generated unemployment. It worked very well in the 1930's. Why not now?

GW

Void · 2020-05-09 13:31:25

It does seem that Texas is quite blessed, and on it's way to further greatness.

I agree, something will have to be done to get the young people back on their feet.

And now in my opinion, enough for understanding and treatments shall exist, to reduce the death rate of the older people.

I am not sure I am willing to wait for a vaccine, not that I would not like one.

I am over 65, and just may have had and survived the thing. I did fly to Texas March 7 & 15, and there was a woman coughing continually on the way back just a couple of seats back. But maybe I will get and regret it anyway. We don't live forever.

GW Johnson · 2020-05-10 12:23:07

Well, I hope you stay well. The ordinary flu is one thing, this SRS-CoV-2 crap is something else. Comparable to, or maybe harsher than, the 1918 flu.

Myself, I am about to turn 70 (if I survive to mid-July). It is important to do the quarantine things, even if those around me do not. I think we are already beginning to see the case daily rate spike-up from relaxing too soon and too rapidly. The only thing masking this is the case rate decline in still-locked-down New York. Which has about a third of the total US case rate.

Regardless, try to stay safe and well.

GW

Void · 2020-05-13 17:46:57

Thanks so much. Whatever it was, it seems to be past.

Now GW Johnson, I do not want to soil your good image with my strange words. Set yourself free. I do not implicate you with what I have so now say.

I am concerned. The now is in my opinion the mirror image of what happened another time previously.

The Communists and the Fascists had a collaboration before WWII. I think as a extreme caution, we should consider if we are being played.
It is suspicious.

We cannot afford to not know.

I have studied time echo things, I am beginning to be concerned.

We should not allow ourselves to be raped for stupidity.

Last edited by Void (2020-05-13 17:49:15)

Void · 2020-12-10 19:45:01

------
Peter Zeihan, "A glipse of the future"
His view is helpful, but like all who try it is very diffacult to make really precise predictions. Factors change all the time. But he does have a fix on some of the more constant and longer lasting factors, so, he can predict to a degree, which is more than most can do.
https://vimeo.com/474687428
His videos are somewhat redundant, but there is often some new factors or a different slant.
In the case where you might wonder how people are going to make "Their Daily Bread", it does not hurt to know what you seem to be up against.
Perhaps foolishly, I think that the Corona may get under some level of control by summer by vacinations. We will see. I think it is higly probable that I am recovering from that nasty thinng anyway. I may never know for sure.
I have taken a nasal swab test. I am hoping it comes out negitive. It could come out positive, if I am still infected, or was recently infectious. However I have been in relative isolation for about 3 weeks, and my breathing is getting better each day so far. I lost a lot of weight, which was not all bad. I was too fat anyway.
But my doctor told me I could get the blood test for anti-bodies, but it would only indicate that I was infected by "A corona virus". It cannot say it was corvid.
However I have never been sick that way. It was not like pneumonia, which I have had, and it was not like the flu. I had the vacination for both flu and Bacterial pneumonia within the last three months. It could still have been flu, but at its worst, I could only be on my feet for about 10-20 seconds and then I would be seriously out of breath, as if I had run at a very high speed on a treadmill. So, I think it was likely the real thing.
Things I question about Peter Zeihans analysis, are automation and robotics, which could produce more goods, with the question of what would be the market. However if those goods had to do with health extention / life extention, and if elders had enough income, then perhaps internal consumption could occur for aged societies.
As for automation and robotics on the battlefield, like it or not, it does appear that that matters, and could change the outcome for Russia, should they be able to produce/obtain/use such things. But that is unknown. Their potential enemies might do the same. However that would reduce the utility of needing younger populations to fight wars.
Done.

SpaceNut · 2021-07-26 17:28:20

bump

tahanson43206 · 2021-07-26 17:55:08

For Void .... December of 2020 seems to be recent enough .... However, if you feel that something new has shown up, you have two topics with the same name to choose for an update.

(th)

Void · 2021-07-30 12:29:15

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_fpY63fcd8

Some of his material is new or presented in a different way.

I guess it is you time to spend.

Done.

Void · 2021-08-01 08:21:37

This is not Peter Zeihan, but "Joe Heinrich". I will put it here, as joining his thinking
to what Peter Zeihan produces, may be helpful.

"How westerners became psychologically peculiar and economically prosperous".

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=jo … &FORM=VIRE

I was surprised that the touched on the importance of the Roman Church, and Protestantism.

Done

Last edited by Void (2021-08-01 08:22:50)

Void · 2021-08-09 10:31:46

Peter Zeihan did a tweet with this in it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar … ss/619492/

So far, I find it to be pretty well on with accuracy.

If I might dare to say that I think I understand some of Peter Zeihan's work, this
may have emerged, as a consequence of doing a China deal against the USSR.

Our blue collar work was sent out from the rust belt, to better prices. The notion of
mental capabilities similarly was made more white collar, (In my opinion).

This was from a desire, right or wrong from the Regan era, to survive, I guess, and to keep certain people down on the farm. Likely a reaction to the Boomer generations relative lack of obedience.

They could knock down some, and use pump up the ego's of the others by making an environment where they were to be appointed and anointed to be the "Best and the Brightest".

It worked, I guess. I am not living in radioactive rubble or dead in a concentration camp, and I survived and made it ok in a "Rust Belt" industry area. I adapted and moved on.

But, now with us against China, the blue collar work is to become very important.

There is a difference from a mimic mind and a creative mind. I do believe that a whole lot of these so called "Bobo's" were quite creative. But many may have simply as the article indicates, good at taking tests at a young age.

It is quite possible that many were gifted. But if you take people and tell them to invent something, some of these might not be so good at it.

To be a mimic, you just have to test well.

Maturity age is also important. Some people grow up earlier than others, and completed physical and mental maturations early. In the past this was considered
desirable, as the objective was to pump out capable workers as fast as possible.

But a difference between apes and humans is that humans have a longer childhood. This gives a greater opportunity to have more than a Mimic mind.

A bit harsh, but I do think that I am not so far off about this.

The appointed and anointed often take work from others and then represent themselves as the creatives. And they might have added something, so it may
not be entirely false for them to indicate it.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2021-08-09 10:46:41)

Void · 2021-08-16 12:48:19

I generally like to map my future with the best information I can get, particularly for
important things.

I suppose I will trust this until I find new better information.

There is an interesting video here from Peter Zeihan, about Covid-19, delta variant, and the world.
https://t.co/LDW8UxeCfp?amp=1

Sounds like North America might get fairly strait in about 6 months, and I presume likely parts of Europe/UK.

He seems to be of the opinion that masks and tests will not be enough to restrain the delta variant. Only effective vaccienes.

Done.

Void · 2021-09-08 11:45:25

This is interesting:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rnp_MYXWr4k
I have also posted this elsewhere, for discussions about Mars and agriculture.

"Index» Human missions» Air. Shelter. Water. Food."

Done.

Last edited by Void (2021-09-08 11:47:42)

Void · 2022-03-01 11:34:50

I was put onto this article by watching tweets from "Peter Zeihan", so I guess it can go here.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/energ … 1646146701
Quote:

Opinion: Energy disruptions are now inevitable and most likely imminent — here are all the ways that could happen
Published: March 1, 2022 at 9:58 a.m. ET

As I recall, there are 3 most major sources of Hydrocarbons at this time:
-Middle East
-Russia and Company
-North America

In the excitement of hysteria and armchair warfare, I would like to suggest caution about trying to shut down Russia and Company per Hydrocarbons.

In spite of the efforts of our current administration, North America is positioned fairly well for it. Our oil may get diverted to other markets and bring up our prices, but I think it will take longer to organize the mass movement of natural gas off continent. We have much more use of Natural gas than many other western nations, I believe.

Here is another factor. Do you want to flow more money to the Middle East, so that they can have "Mischief Money"? I believe that at this point, they have to placate their citizens as the citizens are becoming more used to being pandered to. But if they get a big slug of extra money, what will they do with it? Behave responsibly and invest it? Well, I hope that is what they will do. We know of the other things they might do, and except that we might sell munitions, that is not in our interests.

As for Russian Oil wells in Permafrost. If you force them to shut down, then they may freeze shut, and be very hard to re-open. So, will such cause more suffering in the world? Well, if the Russians do get Ukraine under their greater control, they may have to buy favors to placate the Ukrainians, and at least that would reduce the future suffering.

And we might as well be honest, much of Western Europe has no reasonable substitute. That is just being honest, coldly honest.

-------

"Place Political Rant Here". That is, I could say things about what has been done in North America per Oil and gas, that could get me in trouble. And what sort of America is this that it could be possible that such things could happen?

Anyway, I don't want to educate the dopes, if I don't have to.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-03-01 11:47:36)

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