Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:

Terraformer · 2022-03-01 11:52:07

Hmm.

It seems likely that the oil at least will just go to China instead, so the end result is we pay more (to dodgy Middle Eastern despots), China pays less, and Russia is hit somewhat but not catastrophically. Gas will be different of course, but Gazprom have experience building pipelines? They have already agreed to it -- https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci … 022-02-04/

Without being able to make so much from resource exportation though, and with imports reduced, perhaps Russia's manufacturing industry will improve? Which is... not the intent of the sanctions (*that* appears to be destabilising a nuclear power, for some reason I do not know).

Void · 2022-03-02 19:10:37

Peter Zeihan seems to believe that Russia will go after the nation of Moldova as well. If you query "Peter Zeihan twitter", you may be able to get a recent video about that.

Done.

Void · 2022-03-09 19:37:05

Some more Peter Zeihan: https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/deal-with-the-devils

It's hard to find an opinion that is sensible. I presume, so far that our European partners, will still have access to Russian and other Asian Natural Gas.

I guess Biden is screwed if he wants to kill the Shale Oil industry. There may also be some leverage for America to go deeper into burning Natural Gas for it's needs to free up oil. (Shale Gas is a waste/byproduct of Shale Oil) Drill more Shale Oil, have to use up or flare more Shale Gas.

As far as cutting off Oil, I think we may have an obligation per NATO, and maybe other European and Asian partners, to do a bit more sharing. We would still have a wild advantage if our oil was at $100.00 per barrel, and that of Europe and Japan $150.00 and then I guess China gets $200.00 + Oil under that situation. Just a thought.

But we should really grab onto this I feel, as it is a golden opportunity to perhaps change our financial numbers to better ones, as our manufacturing would benefit from having relatively cheaper fuels. Of course, our Natural Gas is going to be relatively Cheap.

Even so, inflation is going to suck, and so will the recession/depression that this will ultimately prompt.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-03-09 19:50:23)

kbd512 · 2022-03-09 21:30:18

Void,

Wrong. President Biden is not screwed out of anything. Unfortunately, America is royally screwed because either a dementia patient who belongs in Silver Care or someone who was never elected President is actually running our country. Joe Biden couldn't run a lemonade stand, and even our Democrat-run media propagandists are tiring of trying to distract attention away from the fact that he's not legally competent. He's had no cognitive test because everyone in the Democrat Party knows he would fail miserably. Kamala Harris has no interest in the lemonade stand, because she's bipolar and is somehow even less qualified than Joe Biden to be there. Joe has lucid moments every so often, whereas Kamala is bipolar all the time and will never be anything else.

Barrack Obama was only half-interested in doing the job, even though he had the requisite cognitive abilities and then some. After he was elected, he wouldn't even communicate with his own party.

Hillary Clinton is a sociopath who wanted to start a war with Russia. She's every bit as unhinged as Putin, but was never given the opportunity to do more damage than she did as Secretary of State.

Joe Biden is severely affected by dementia and will stumble into a war with Russia. When he was still legally competent, he was not well-liked by his own party.

Kamala Harris is bipolar and totally disinterested in doing the job. Even if her mood swings were controllable with medication, she has zero interest in being President.

Both sociopaths and bipolar people laugh at inappropriate times, but for totally different reasons. The sociopaths are trying to "blend in" so they're not "discovered", because predators live in constant fear of being discovered and cornered by other predators, whereas the bipolar sufferers are on a constant mood-swing roller coaster that causes them to drift back-and-forth between psychotically angry and blissfully happy. Bipolar people have significant issues with maintaining attention or focus due to their mood swings, which describes Kamala to a "T". She's effectively useless for replacing Biden.

Inflation is being caused by our ruling class and their utter contempt for their fellow Americans. It was never inevitable, it was a direct result of purposeful actions by people intent on inflicting as much pain as possible on people that they not only don't care about, but actively despise.

All of the "adults in the room" disappeared the moment President Trump left office, which is saying something because I don't consider him to be much more than a textbook narcissist, except that he actually cares about what his fellow Americans think of him. None of the rest of them care at all, so long as they can convince enough soft-headed simpletons to vote for them to retain power.

I'm right where I was back in 2016, totally disgusted with the entire lot of them, and ready to take a chance on voting for anyone not already in power. That's how America elected President Trump. It was a desperate act to secure a better future, and it worked until the same turds floated back to the surface of that toilet bowl we call Washington DC. The only reason I vote for Republicans most of the time, rather than Independents, is the fact that Democrat policies are so destructive to the people they claim to be "helping" that I fear not having a country of any description.

Calliban · 2022-03-10 06:20:33

Kbd512, that's the same reason people vote for Conservatives everywhere. They have given up all hope of a good government and just want one that isn't quite so bad. Their priority is to keep the civilisation wrecking Left out of power. I tend to think the same way, but I am always disappointed with the results. Mainly because there are no Conservative parties left in the UK. It is now a choice between which brand of neoliberalism you want to be ruined by.

On the topic of inflation, this has been out of control for a long time. Back in the 90s, economists working for Clinton fiddled the way inflation is measured by including all sorts of intangible hedonics. If inflation is measured using the same methodology as was applied before the mid 90s, it has been far above average wage growth since about 2000. About the same time that China joined the WTO and OECD oil production hit its peak and started declining. Two coincidental occurances that are unlikely to be coincidence.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

Some speculate that China was admitted to WTO, to allow its large coal reserves to be used to prop up real goods manufacturing, which was becoming more expensive in Western countries due to falling net energy return from our own fossil fuel reserves. It is at least a plausible explanation. And it did work for absentee investors like Warren Buffett. The obvious downside was the obliteration of working and middle class as their wage base collapsed. Now resource depletion and geopolitics is making inflation impossible to hide, even after hedonic manipulation of inflation stats.

Last edited by Calliban (2022-03-10 06:33:49)

Void · 2022-03-10 08:20:56

I am enjoying the posts.

As I see it Biden and CO. is a Fossil, a Dinasaur. He seems to to be trying to run a time reversal. The good old days, where oil was sourced from overseas, and cheap Asian labor could get manufactured goods for the people farmers. He has made some progress.

The fear that the people farmers may have had in the 60's/70's>and on through time, would be that industrial workers might turn to the left, as in the USSR. So, I kind of get it. And those foreign resources were available, so it was not that bad of a logic. I survived.

The magical red-neck pixies riding unicorns, created the Shale oil industry. And then the price of China labor/productivity went up.

You can understand that the "American" people farmers did not like that. So, they are trying to make reality run backwards, and they can induce some reverse flows, but we are in a new era.

We, in America inherit much from the British and indeed also the Europeans.

One classical form of reality is that the south people are into people farming. They like green pastures, and ponies, and have a habit of living beyond their means. They also have a habit of going "North" and trying to impose their way of life on the peoples that are there. And thus, they then earn an ass kicking from time to time.

North as a direction fits for the U.K. But as you move about the globe, what is in the north of the UK and likely much of Europe is elsewhere. In the case of North America, it tends to be North and West.

The people farmers, despise industry in the first place. They always wanted country estates and lots of servants.

Don't get me wrong, the North earns a butt kicking just as often as does the South. In America, our success is based in a large part in that we succeeded in the "Kingdom of Balance". And we still can. But when you are talking about "Green", remember this is a class of people who want green pastures and lots of "Service Industry", (Servants). They do not favor the raising of responsible citizens.

Responsible Citizens may wish to do more than shovel poo out of the pony barn. And they may talk back. So, the people farmers adore "Tards", that can do simple work.

I have said enough. Shale and other energy will do what it do, and we will be along for the ride. I have a hard time believing that the Russians and the East Europeans will cut their own throats. Nor are the Northern Europeans likely to, in the long term. But we will see, insanity does happen.

One thing that I think that Peter Zeihan misses about Russian is Robots. Where their demographics are quite bad, if we do actually have the facts, (Sort of), having a smaller population which has been weeded from weaklings, and also then having Robots, you need less food, and water, and less of most things. Having Robots, then you might prosper anyway. But I don't see that is a "Yet" thing, if it is to be at all.

We will see.

Done.

OH! I guess I will rant a bit. The people farmers have a tendency to use Religion as a part of their methods. The game is to have pretty boys at the top, let's say 10%, who have to not ever unzip in public, and then under them the congregation of women, and then under that the other 90% of males, who are expected to serve, and shovel poo. The disrespect for males is a thing they love to popularize.

The females then rely on their pretty boys to get them things. Hence the notion to vote for a kindly grandpa, Ha Ha!

It is almost against the law to have a penis, and especially if it is small.

Gluttony, Gluttony, Gluttony. And big Breasts are required as well. Gluttony, Gluttony, Gluttony.

Intelligence? Why bother?

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-03-10 08:52:26)

Void · 2022-03-18 20:22:13

This guy usually has some interesting stuff:
https://zeihan.com/newsletter/

The end of Russian Oil: https://zeihan.com/the-end-of-russian-oil/
Quote:

The End of Russian Oil
By Peter Zeihan
March 18, 2022
This newsletter is an adapted excerpt from Peter’s upcoming book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning.
Think the Europeans will need to get by without Russian crude? You are 100% correct. But you are not thinking anywhere near big enough.
Most of Russia’s oil fields are both old and extraordinarily remote from Russia’s customers. Fields in the North Caucasus are either tapped out or were never refurbished in the aftermath of the Chechen Wars, those of Russia’s Tatarstan and Bashkortostan provinces are well past their peak, and even western Siberian fields have been showing diminishing returns since the 2000s. With few exceptions, Russia’s oil discoveries of the last decade or three are deeper, smaller, more technically challenging, and even farther from population centers than the older fields they would be expected to replace. Russian output isn’t in danger of collapsing, but maintaining output will require more infrastructure, far higher up-front costs, and ongoing technical love and care to prevent steady output declines from becoming something far worse.
While the Russians are no slouches when it comes to oil field knowledge, they were out of circulation from roughly 1940 through 2000. Oil technology came a long way in those sixty years. Foreign firms—most notably supermajors BP and Shell, and services firms Halliburton and Schlumberger—have collectively done work that is probably responsible for half of Russia’s contemporary output.
The Western supermajors have left. All of them. Just as the Ukraine War began, Exxon and BP and Shell have walked away from projects they’ve sunk tens of billions of dollars into, knowing full well they won’t get a cent of compensation. Halliburton and Schlumberger’s operations today are a shadow of what they were before Russia’s previous invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Between future sanctions or the inability of the Russians to pay them with hard currency, those operations now risk winding down to zero. The result is as inevitable as it is damning: at least a 50% reduction in the ability of Russia to produce crude. (No. Chinese oilmen cannot hope to keep things flowing. The Chinese are worse in this space than the Russians.) The outstanding question is how soon?
Sooner than you think. It’s an issue of infrastructure and climate.
First, infrastructure. All of Russia’s oil flows first travel by pipe—in some cases for literally thousands of miles—before they reach either a customer or a discharge port. Pipes can’t . . . dodge. Anything that impedes a single inch of a pipe shuts the whole thing down. In the post-Cold War globalized Order when we all got along, this was something we could sing-song-skip right by. But with the Russians dropping cluster bombs on civilian targets – as they started doing on Feb 28 – not so much. Whether the Russians destroy the pipes with their indiscriminate use of ordinance (like they damaged a radiation containment vessel at Chernobyl!!!) or Ukrainian partisans target anything that brings the Russians income, much of this system is doomed.
Second, climate. Siberia, despite getting cold enough to literally freeze your nose off in October, doesn’t get cold enough. Most Russian oil production is in the permafrost, and for most of the summer the permafrost is inaccessible because its top layer melts into a messy, horizon-spanning swamp. What the Russians do is wait for the land to freeze, and then build dike-roads and drill for crude in the long dark of the Siberian winter. Should something happen to consumption of Russian crude oil or any of the millions of feet of pipe that take that crude from wellhead to port or consumer, flows would back up through the literally thousands of miles of pipes right up to the drill site. There is no place to store the stuff. Russia would just need to shut everything down. Turning it back on would require manually checking everything, all the way from well to border.
The last time this happened was the Soviet collapse in 1989. It took millions of manhours of help from the likes of BP and Halliburton – and thirty-two years – for Russia to get back to its Cold War production levels. And now, with war on in Ukraine, insurance companies are cancelling policies for tankers carrying anything Russian on Seas Black and Baltic while the French seize Russian vessels, and the Russian Central Bank under the strictest financial sanctions ever, it is all falling apart. Again.
Even in the sunshine and unicorn scenario that Putin duct tapes himself to a lawn chair and throws himself into a pool, and a random band of kindly kindergarten teachers take over the Russian government, we should not expect the energy supply situation in Russia to begin to stabilize before 2028, and for us to return to what we think of as the status quo before 2045.
In the meantime, the debate of the moment is expanded energy sanctions. Once everyone concludes that Russian crude is going away regardless, there’s something to be said about pre-emptively sanctioning Russian energy before reality forces the same end result. Moral high road and all that. Bottom line: Uuuuugh! The disappearance of some four to five million Russian barrels of daily crude production will all by itself kick energy prices up to at least $170 a barrel. A global energy-induced depression is in the wind.
But probably not an American one. In the bad ol’ days before World War II there wasn’t a “global” oil price. Each major country or empire controlled its own production and maintained its own – sequestered – market. Courtesy of the American shale revolution and preexisting legislation, the U.S. president has the authority to end American oil exports on a whim and return us to that world. An American export ban would flood U.S. refiners with relatively cheap shale oil. Those refiners will certainly bitch – their facilities have a taste for crude grades different from what comes out of Texas and North Dakota – but having a functional price ceiling within the United States of roughly $70 a barrel will achieve precisely what Joe Biden is after: cheaper gasoline prices.
The rest of the world? They’ll have to grapple with losing Russian and American crude at the same time. If the “global” price stays below $200, I’d be shocked.
The first rule of geopolitics is place matters. To populations. To transport. To finance. To agriculture. To energy. To everything. The second rule is things can always get worse. The world is about to (re)learn both lessons, good and hard.
At the beginning of the COVID pandemic, we asked our readers who were so inclined and able to consider donating toward a cause we thought was important: Feeding America.
While we still believe strongly in their mission, with recent events in Ukraine we are asking our subscribers to consider supporting a charity focused on relief efforts there. There are many good ones to choose from, but one in particular we are supporting is the Afya Foundation.
They collect money and health supplies for underserved communities in the world, and have begun delivering non-combat support to refugees and population centers in Ukraine. We hope that those who can, join us.
DONATE TO AFYA FOUNDATION

To be honest the above is more than my mind can handle. I guess that is why I am not a billionaire tech giant, or a genius with a newsletter.

I don't know why it has to be like this.

How odd it is that my impression is that the current administrations energy policy has been to try to put industrial America into chains again. The good old days. That is just my current impression. How odd that the Arabs would shun that....Practically being our friends.

Too hard to predict how this will spin, it will be a lot of change, I guess. I personally think that we should seek to produce more energy to sell, as I anticipate that not to many years from now alternative energy will become real, and our oil has less Carbon in it, and Natural gas is a better fuel per Carbon.

I do believe that a great deal of this climate stuff has in part been orchestrated by entities that want us to give up industry. Then we would be an easier take down.

But I am in favor of trying very hard to get green energy to work.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-03-18 20:27:49)

kbd512 · 2022-03-19 01:11:23

Void,

We've been trying to avoid reality for quite some time, but the reality is that we need to build up our industry here at home, producing everything we need locally, rather than shipping things around the world. That was always doomed to become a failure-prone model in an unstable world.

My takeaways are as follows:

1. The world is a much more unstable place than I initially gave Peter Zeihan credit for. He was right, I was wrong.

2. All military alliances appear to come with an unwritten / unspoken "expiration date".

3. Apart from the obvious nuclear threat, Russia's much-vaunted military is a paper tiger. I wonder what percentage of their nuclear weapons are even usable since they most likely haven't been maintaining those, either. They sunk all their Rubles into modern missile technology and fighter jets, ignoring every other aspect of warfare, to include the all-important logistical aspect of war.

4. Current levels of energy and natural resource consumption do not appear sustainable if there is even a modest supply interruption to some part of the current globalized system. This so-called "green energy" scheme is neither particularly good for the environment nor particularly sustainable. If we can use solar thermal energy to turn our deserts into inexhaustible fuel refineries and metal smelters, then I can get onboard with that, but the notion that we're going to make everything from toasters to cars to aircraft electronic appears to be a fool's errand only intended to economically destroy all nations subscribing to the simpleton thinking that such absurdity requires.

I've spoken at great length about how we can drastically improve fuel economy figures by making much lighter / simpler / more practical motor vehicles. If batteries have a future role to play in reducing total energy consumption over time, then that role probably won't come from increasingly heavy Lithium-ion battery powered vehicles attempting to provide the same range as combustion engines. Some other cell chemistry based upon vastly more abundant materials is required. The same applies to photovoltaics and wind turbines. We've been investing heavily into all of those technologies for longer than I've been alive, yet they're still nowhere near becoming like-kind replacements for liquid hydrocarbon fuels.

5. We need to be far more selective in who we choose to represent our interests. Whatever is good for the American economy and good for the American worker, the Biden administration will do the exact opposite of that until polling numbers or actions by Congress force them to reevaluate their strategy for maintaining power. This is by design, however. They're attempting to increase their voter base by making everyone dependent upon government handouts for their survival. That's how you ensure you maintain power into perpetuity. Whether you actually have better ideas is irrelevant. Money and power matter to these people, but not much of anything else.

Terraformer · 2022-03-19 03:18:27

The New World is definitely far better placed to weather the next few decades than the Old. America, Canada, Brazil, Argentina are all strong food exporters. In a crunch, they will feed themselves and their neighbours (because no-one wants tens of millions of hungry refugees on their border) first, before exporting what they have left to the rest of us.

Re. food, ALLFED do important work in this area. How to feed everyone even if the sun is blocked out for a decade. I've been trying to get Elon Musk's attention to it -- he's probably the best shot we have at scaling these things rapidly, given his wealth, his ability to understand what the problem is, and his access to sizeable industrial capability (I'm guessing there are *some* commonalities between building rockets and building reactor vessels for supercritical hydrolysis).

RobertDyck · 2022-03-19 09:31:23

Manitoba has a lot of land suitable for farming. Much of that land is not in production because of lack of customers. Canada used to export a lot of grain to Europe. Many years ago the US got into a trade war with Europe, demanding end of all subsidies and restrictions. Europe would not allow themselves to become dependent on foreign food, in case of conflict or other supply insecurities. So Europe limited how much food could be imported to their countries. This trade war between the US and Europe resulted in greatly reducing how much Canadian grain went to Europe. Canada could increase grain exports. This would help the Canadian economy in many ways. Grain from the prairies was exported through the port of Churchill to Europe. That could only be done during the summer, when Hudson's Bay is not frozen over. Grain harvest is obviously during autumn, so that's mostly Ok. Grain exports during winter go to Thunderbay on the west coast of Lake Superior, where ships travel through the Saint Lawrence Seaway to get to the Atlantic, which limits ship size to locks of the Welland Canal and Saint Lawrence River, and it's slower. For those who don't know, the Welland Canal bypasses the Niagara River and Niagara Falls. The port was Churchill's primary employer; when grain to Europe reduced, Churchill struggled to find alternative sources of income. Grain exports to Europe could really help.

Then there's what I started with: increase land in production in southern Manitoba.

RobertDyck · 2022-03-19 10:16:17

There is another alternative. Land farther north is not suitable for traditional agriculture. Elk could be pastured around a town called The Pas, north of Lake Winnipegosis and the northern end of the Interlake. The Interlake is between Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba/Winnipegosis. Traditional crops will grow in the southern part of the Interlake, but the northern part is too cold, so I should saw just between Lake Winnipeg and Lake Winnipegosis as well as around Cedar Lake and Moose Lake. The native range for elk used to extend even farther north, to Pukatwagen. There's no all-weather road up there, but there is a road to Flin Flon. Raising elk for meat would could replace beef. Less land dedicated to feed (fodder) for cattle means more land to grow grain. Growing elk in areas where other crops cannot grow should result in lower price meat. Elk have been grown in Manitoba, but in southern Manitoba were other crops can grow, and elk meat in grocery stores was priced higher than beef. At least here in Manitoba, the key is to reduce the price per pound. Elk is red meat, tastes very good!

Another alternative is bison (buffalo). Wood bison are even larger than prairie bison, wood bison are as large as the largest Angus cattle. That area has shallow soil over bedrock, poor for traditional agriculture. But wood bison could be raised for meat. That area has mostly indigenous people, so this would help the indigenous community. The key to selling bison meat is to keep it cheaper than beef. And the key to keeping cost down is to pasture animals, do not feed them grain. The main food source for wood bison is grasses and sedges, but they also eat lichens, shrubs, leaves and bark when available. Wood bison are not native to the east side of Lake Winnipeg, but should thrive there. If they don't, woodland carabou are native there.

kbd512 · 2022-03-19 10:40:41

Terraformer,

You don't think Elon Musk has enough on his plate, as-is?

You really can't find some other person who knows how to farm and has a few nickels to rub together?

Why not talk to Bill Gates since he is or will become one of the largest farm-owners in America?

The Bill and Melinda Gates foundation funds work on sustainable energy and farming, as well as medicine. If you talk to Melinda Gates, you may even get a few moments of their time.

Terraformer · 2022-03-19 11:53:54

kbd512,

If you actually checked the link before replying, you'd know that I'm not talking about farming.

kbd512 · 2022-03-19 13:05:25

Terraformer,

I did read through multiple pages on ALLFED's website. Their research involves agriculture or "farming", plain and simple, even if the focus is on what to do to feed everyone after a major farming disaster. Bill Gates is one of the largest farmland owners in the US, and the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation does a bit of research into agriculture, especially in places where they have serious issues feeding people, like Africa and Asia. Whether you think what ALLFED does is related to farming, or not, is immaterial to what is required to feed everyone on this planet, which is colloquially known as "farming".

Bill & Melinda Gates - Agricultural Innovations LLC

From their website:

That’s why we are launching Bill & Melinda Gates Agricultural Innovations—also known as Gates Ag One. This new 501(c) (3) nonprofit will advance high-impact discoveries that can help smallholder farmers adapt to climate change and make food production in low- and middle-income countries more productive, resilient, and sustainable. It will accelerate the development of cutting-edge technologies into useful products; work with interested governments to introduce those breakthroughs into specific crops essential to smallholder farmers, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia; and work with local, regional, and international partners in the public and private sectors to commercialize resilient, yield-enhancing seeds and traits globally.

That sounds an awful lot like part of what ALLFED is interested in doing, so maybe they could collaborate where their interests align.

SpaceNut · 2022-03-19 14:42:07

Terraformers link also provie

Alliance to Feed the Earth in Disasters (ALLFED) with focus on events, such as supervolcanic eruptions, which could deplete food supplies or access to 5% of the global population or more. They are working on systems that could help everyone survive a global catastrophe that shocks the world’s food systems. ALLFED seek to provide practical, affordable, and resilient food solutions so that, in the event of a global catastrophe, governments, industry, and communities can respond quickly and distribute food equitably.

So they are looking at how to make that farming possible when such events happen.

Power requirement suggests nuclear
Location is underground
farming technology is vertical and hydroponic

Void · 2022-03-20 13:37:08

I have been observing the posts here of the members. Interesting............

I have another item from Peter Ziehan, that I think is very interesting. I am going to do some rather cold thinking here. Don't assume from it that I am a cheerleader for what is going on in Ukraine. I like understanding truth.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Th … &FORM=VIRE

If I read between the lines, per Russian Oil, it may not be as unfortunate a situation as it may seem for the Russians.
If they only have 1/2 of their oil output, but the Price is >$50 per barrel>$100 per barrel>$150 per barrel, and maybe even higher, then
Let's just say they would be selling ~~~1/2 as much for more than half the previous price. Not a net loss of money.
And they could mothball their East Siberian and other fields, lowering Maintenace and production costs. The Europeans will pay lots for Oil, and so likely will others. So, both Europe and China will have their legs cut out from under them.

The world will likely go into a recession. So, Russia may maintain a product to sell that many people cannot refuse the offer of.

The West and China will get poorer, and so may not be able to buy as many weapons.

North America and the Middle East may follow a different path. The Middle East may have more money, but the price of food will go up. If Russia essentially gets influence over Ukraine food production, then Russia/Ukraine will have that power over the Middle East.

North America is the wild card then. If the lefties keep doing pixie prances about our oil and Nat. Gas industries, then I guess we pay $200.00 per barrel also.

So, politics in North America are going to be a big thing. I think a lot of low-income people are going to notice getting poorer. I don't think they will enjoy it. Neither will I.

Oh, and all that Oil that gets stranded in many of the East Siberian oil fields, and other locations. Black Gold in reserve $$$ Future Oil when the world reserves run out.

No, they are not so dumb as some wish.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-03-20 13:48:46)

Void · 2022-03-23 12:32:55

This material may be of use. It is not from Peter Zeihan, and not exactly his type of thing. But I think very useful.

Explaining America's Identity in 10 Ethnicities - YouTube
https://www.bing.com/search?q=Explainin … 45&pc=U531

I haven't finished this one yet: (Understanding Orthodox Civilization)
https://www.bing.com/search?q=Understan … 7502f947b6

I wish to refrain from engaging in opinions to offer into these but will say that with the contest between West/USA and Those other people/Russia? knowing some of this may help to understand what is going on.

Done

Last edited by Void (2022-03-23 12:37:08)

Void · 2022-03-23 13:50:53

This is from Peter Zeihan:
https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/russian-refin … duced-runs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bm7cKB3Wczs

Well, this looks like "What we will have". I guess we will see how the world economies will adjust.

I guess one result of war is typically disruption of expectations.

Done.

louis · 2022-03-23 18:09:56

The former democracies* should always have prioritised energy independence as a collective. Funnelling gazillions to countries like Russia and Saudi has allowed them to use that money to infiltrate and corrupt a whole series of our institutions including academia, scientific research, sport, the arts and the media (all vital to our cultural life, from which springs democratic principles).

This is why I have always stressed the vital importance of energy independence and developing green energy.

Our strategy during this world emergency should be to (a) maximise production of methane as a stop-gap and (b) develop green energy and green energy storage as our major energy source within the next decade. We need to put ourselves on a war footing to achieve this in that timescale. While iron-air battery storage looks promising in the long term, I think our safest bet is to follow the Danish plan and go for green hydrogen utility scale storage. For countries with good wind resources out at sea, this means creating energy islands out at sea.

* I use the term former democracies because many have now transformed themselves into semi-totalitarian countries where you can be imprisoned for expressing your beliefs or failing to undergo state-mandated medical procedures, where legitimate protest is violently suppressed, where elections are not conducted on a fair basis (e.g. deliberate covering up of the Hunter Biden laptop scandal by the MSM and Big Tech, keeping voters in ignorance) or where elections are actually stolen through corrupt practice.

Last edited by louis (2022-03-23 18:12:50)

Void · 2022-03-23 19:09:46

Referring to the just previous post.....

I have much more agreement than disagreement with your stated views.

I would shy away from the word democracy I think we must more be concerned about people appointed. By voting to represent our interests.

If you follow "The 4th Turning", Peter Zeihan, and George Friedman, (And others), this now is an unusual period, at least for the USA.
I do agree that we have a problem, where I fear that an "Apointtocracy has attempted to operate against the best interests of the voters.

I reveal too much, but we have a problem with the "Coastal people" who have an arrogance, against those inside of America. I believe that the west coast will see the error of their ways before the East coast people do. Just now the west coast is really known for weird. I feel that this is because they are lost from reality, but they are the more likely to wake up sooner I think.

Because the people of the East Coast have the fossil cities of America's past, they assume that they are the perfect core example of what America should be. They have been trying to "Americanize" us Americans for some time now. It is annoying.

If there are any traditional so called "Whites" anywhere, they must surely be NAZI and White supremist victimizers of all the oppressed peoples. We went from the hate of some trouble makers of WWII to the gradual and continuing inclusion of almost all whites, even if they are the ones who constantly apologize and also condemn other so called whites.

I think that the root of this is to upset American culture, and to hope to cause conflict in our society. I think I can think of a certain Canadian who recently demonstrated an "East Coast" harassment of some other Canadians. Naming them names. So, everyone not of the East Coast ruling classes, then not a protected minority, can then be labeled as NAZI or White Supremist, or Klu Klux Clan.

In a similar fashion, industry is evil. Really, to a degree this is true. And the reason to promote that notion is our enemies would prefer that we destroy our industry. It is because they are the type of people who want to rule. They want a social solution to all things so that they can become appointed and anointed to a position of power over the masses.

The masses they seek to control are the "Minorities" they create. They want the to be weak people with vices and ignorance. Democracy is a system of patronage. You beat the people down, then take things from the productive, and then buy votes with promises to the damaged masses. A patronage system. Not what I want.

Divide and Conquer. Ever they have.

In a representative republic and I presume to a similar degree in your system, ideally, representatives are to be accountable to the local people who voted for them. To a degree that may work.

But I do believe that the power to escape does exist. I do believe that the core of our societies will wake up and throw off the yoke that these unworthy types are trying to apply to us.

We are after all in the Anti-Anti-Colonial Era. What is happening now can be seen as a helpful adjustment to force society back to reality.

Certain things are working out against the wishes of our modern day "Romans". For instance, Hispanics, have a tendency to do things other than take bad advice, and to descend into life styles of decay. They even think themselves to be a sort of "Whites" themselves in many cases, as they relate to that life style more than the weird stuff coming out of "Woke".

So some people who were supposed to become "Pets" of patronage, have begun to quite disappoint our modern day Romans.

The fall of the Roman and Greek power systems, in part included dismissal of God(s) (A higher power), feminism, the Greeks and Romans stopped having children, and brought in lots of foreign labor, and they just wanted to live off or rents. They no longer wanted to work.

Part of America is following that path, but many are not. I think you can guess who wins in the end. Spoiler, it am not the Romans or the Greeks.

Energy is a very interesting subject in this. Globalization benefited the Coastal peoples, and allowed them to suppress our industrial capacity. I don't think that the reasons were all sinister, but you have to realize that in the time of Nixon, it might have appeared that the USA was going to have some kind of leftist revolution. Leftists have a tendency to seek out industry, but despise farmers.

The USSR was a real threat as well, and to divide China from that block was quite intelligent. Also importing oil from the Middle East was necessary, as we needed NATO + America could not supply that energy.

And so, the rust belt, and the movement of industry to the Sunbelt, but even more offshore. That to knock down the Unions. Don't get me wrong. I have worked under Unions. I would not want them to be the patrons I have to bow down to either. So, for me it worked out. I was able to keep working and I did not end up in a "Workers Paradise".

Certain parts of our society did everything they could to maintain this situation. They kept wanting the cheep goods from global trade, and also the energy from the Middle East, primarily. They did as much as they could to suppress Shale Oil. And if you want to know my guess, they also likely suppressed alternative energy as much as they could, without being too obvious.

The objective has been to hold power by brokering the global system, not to elevate the USA, or especially the Americans. I think that it is evident that foreign powers have also been assistive, in trying to keep the USA subservient to the global system which is not a particularly enlightened system in fact. Putin has said that he thinks that Fracking is evil.

As for a certain president. I recall seeing a news clip, where he was asked about a Free Trade Deal with the UK. His answer was that he belonged to a certain ethnic group. The tone of that sort of said "NO".

I feel that my American President should feel and indicate that he is an American. Not some European Ethnic. And to put things strait, I have always or almost always been treated well by that ethnic group, but still, I need an "American" President. One who will judge the situation per trade agreement with a duty to do what is best for America. Not to harbor a hate for the UK. But even if he did hate the UK, his duty as an American President would be to evaluate what good it would be for America. He is not the President of a European country that is hostile to the UK.

Here now, is an amusing turn. With the energy situation being as it is now and apparently will be if some of the Russian supply long term goes off line, Fracking will be a necessity, unless we get some Unicorn luck short term. But Sensible Alternative Energy, will also be promoted, it would seem as a factor of National Security for many nations.

So, there is some good to come of this. That is if we avoid getting nuked.

Anyone who continues to hobble Fracking will get run out on a rail so to speak. And Alternative Energy is going to have to get real. Up till now it has been sort of silly. The resident "Romans" like to talk the talk but have very little for walking legs as far as I can see.

As for the surplus money that the Fracking Industry will have available....Well I guess we will find out. Profits for the Frackers is one good notion. But giving American a leg up industrially is also another desire. And helping out our global "Friends" is yet another thing.

So, it seems that even though we have to pay more at the pump here, there are things under the Christmas Tree for us after all, with the crashing of globalization.

Anyway, like it or not we will get what we get, and have to deal with it.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-03-23 20:23:41)

Void · 2022-03-23 20:38:53

Louis,

Your reference to "Sea" energy. I agree. I also think that there will be a lot of opportunity to use the Oceans as a "Carbon Sink", and to grow more food, as soils wear out.

I think that is a good direction to take.

Done.

Void · 2022-03-23 20:45:49

Peter Zeihan posted about this article:
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 … gh-in-2021
The article points out that COAL is back in a big way globally. So, then, did it make sense to suppress oil and natural gas?

Certainly not. We could have sold, some of the Fracking results, turned a profit, and reduced world Carbon Emissions.

And then "I" said.......

You need to consider the possibility that efforts to solve energy problems are not really being made, but efforts to gain political power are of a great interest to the people who are supposed to be managing things for us.

I am becoming quite tired of the antics of these colonial masters, they should at least be required to look into our, USA, and Global interests, rather than to hang on the system like a parasitic Lamprey, sucking fluids out of us.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-03-23 20:52:58)

Void · 2022-03-25 08:28:01

So, about agriculture:
global_agriculture_collapse:
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comme … an_geopop/

Cheerful not.

From my armchair, it looks like the USA and Canada should bump up Shale Oil, which will bump up Natural Gas. Then it is needed to flare off less Natural Gas, and to make more Fertilizers from Natural Gas.

Then we should think to sell more light oil on the global market, perhaps preferentially to those who we may owe a favor to most.

My guess is that as before it is likely that Russia will seek to pause again after getting what they can per Ukraine, and part of Moldovia.

But of course, I really don't know.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-03-25 08:31:21)

Void · 2022-03-26 22:32:06

Not Good:
Energy Crisis, Rosneft Oil & Natural Gas, Fertilizer | Peter Zeihan:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=En … &FORM=VIRE

Done.

kbd512 · 2022-03-26 23:01:34

Void,

Well, that doesn't sound very promising. We're living in interesting times.

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