The First to Mars - Who will it be?

Grypd · 2006-09-01 02:50:39

Direct Democracy is the most stable form of government on the small scale, it is hard to be a dictator of three people unless you got a gun pointed at them at all times and you still got to sleep sometimes. if you piss off enough people in a small colony, they may shove you through the airlock just to get rid of you. The first colonies will likely be direct democracies. NASA will probably see in as in their interest not to impose tyrants on people on Mars. Mars is a lonely place, the people their are all alone, and it will be in their interest to get along as best as possible. The type of government on Mars will likely depend on who NASA selects for the mission.
If China sends a bunch of Communist Party Cadres, then the local government will likely follow the communist form of government, but on such an underpopulated planet where survival is at stake, anything that would make the colony more succesful would likely be preferred. If someone imposes himself as "maximo leader" of a group of 10 people, he's likely to soon be breathing Martian air.

You really do expect that this Colony will not be a friendly place do you. But it will not be an instant democracy it will be a goverment programme and they will have the final say and they will design the mission in the most effective way. This means like Antartic bases there are designated leaders and people are given there posts. These are not necassarily civilians we are sending and even if we do they will be under discipline just like NASA's Astronauts are.

Democracy will happen but only when there is a substantial population on the planet. Until then it will be a Goverment base or bases and leaders will be designated from Earth.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2006-09-01 12:39:00

Chinese? Not a chance. They have a lot of catching up to do. Just because they orbited a guy doesn't mean they are anywhere near going to Mars.
"This isn't a four-day trip to the Moon, gentlemen. We're talking about keeping human beings alive in hostile environments for more than a year and moving them through space for a few hundred million kilometers. It presents problems..."

They orbited three people, Yáng in SZ-5 and Jùnlóng and Hǎishèng in Shenzhou-6, as well as that they launched a heap of scientific satellites, testing support vessels for manned flight, and have declared that they will soon be launching robotic craft to the Moon and Mars as precursor for manned missions.

You're right about Mars not being a four day trip, Mars is a long 2 year + mission but the USA is also far behind in this area of long term flight as Shuttle could only stay in orbit for a few days so NASA has to thank foreigners not Americans for long duration spaceflight

The foreign guys hold all the top spots for long duration studies Avdeyev from Russia, Valeriy Polyakov another Russian, Michael Foale a British guy who worked with NASA, Musabayev from Kazakhstan, Reiter from Germany who worked with ESA, Viktor Afanasyev from Russia, and Alexandr Kaleri from Russia....and a heap of other Russians I can not name right now. The Ruskies had plans for manned missions to the red planet but that all died away when the USSR collapsed. So today what makes you think the Russians won't teach China a thing or two about long duration flight ?

Tom Kalbfus · 2006-09-01 12:59:34

Direct Democracy is the most stable form of government on the small scale, it is hard to be a dictator of three people unless you got a gun pointed at them at all times and you still got to sleep sometimes. if you piss off enough people in a small colony, they may shove you through the airlock just to get rid of you. The first colonies will likely be direct democracies. NASA will probably see in as in their interest not to impose tyrants on people on Mars. Mars is a lonely place, the people their are all alone, and it will be in their interest to get along as best as possible. The type of government on Mars will likely depend on who NASA selects for the mission.
If China sends a bunch of Communist Party Cadres, then the local government will likely follow the communist form of government, but on such an underpopulated planet where survival is at stake, anything that would make the colony more succesful would likely be preferred. If someone imposes himself as "maximo leader" of a group of 10 people, he's likely to soon be breathing Martian air.
You really do expect that this Colony will not be a friendly place do you. But it will not be an instant democracy it will be a goverment programme and they will have the final say and they will design the mission in the most effective way. This means like Antartic bases there are designated leaders and people are given there posts. These are not necassarily civilians we are sending and even if we do they will be under discipline just like NASA's Astronauts are.
Democracy will happen but only when there is a substantial population on the planet. Until then it will be a Goverment base or bases and leaders will be designated from Earth.

Like a good engineer, you must design a government for the worst case situations, not the best case. If you assume the best case, that everyone will get along and will do what they are told, that is an open invitation for a dictatorship.

You have to seperate out the mission from how the colonists govern themselves. If they rely on Big Daddy from mission control an unhealthy situation develops, much like the Spanish colony in Mexico turn into the Mexican Empire. People in Mexico were used to obeying a Spanish King from across the ocean, it was not hard for them to go from that to having a Mexican Emperor replacing the distant Spanish King, and from the Mexican Emperor you had popular uprisings, revolutionary movements and now a corrupt Mexican government that while holding elections was dominated by a single political party for a very long time. Mexico is poor because its founders were authoritarians who didn't let the people participate in determining the government and passing laws, and since they were not used to doing this, when they finally got the chance they did not do so very well. The British colonies on the other hand were largely self-governed, when the time was right, the people of British North America were ready for independence from England and to establish the United States of America.

When colonizing Mars, I don't think we ought to be following the Spanish model as their new world colonies became third world banana republics and dictatorships suseptable to every radical political philosophy that was on the market.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2007-02-18 06:01:59

International in scope, but led by NASA.

That's what I'd think

SpaceNut · 2019-10-26 09:45:57

The date of last post means we did not have a space x or other companies trying to get us to mars and Nasa was in kicking the can down the road mode for decades as it was. Its goals were to still get there but the decades kept rolling by as we watched them go in circles above the earth.
Now the hopes for getting there are being delayed for a gateway redirect that will slow us down again for a decade as we detour once more even if going to stay on the moon is significant for man.
The hopes for the SLS and others might not get us there any soon when its not just the ship but cash which is needed to make it happen for all of the technology enhancements to allow for man to land on mars with enough payload to make it sustainable.

Nasa aims to put man on mars by 2035
Still on the slow train kicking the can down the road....

Oldfart1939 · 2019-10-26 09:58:20

NASA seems to have mental constipation, and just can't get over the "not invented here," shtick. SpaceX has made more real progress in the past 2 years than NASA in the previous 5 decades. The mental constipation is evinced by the heel dragging slowing down the Dragon 2 flights to ISS. How many parachute tests has Boeing carried out?
Space travel is dangerous. Easiest way to approach safety issues is never fly--only give lip service to ideas. "In another 16 years....blah, blah, blah." Kicking can down the road is accurate assessment.

GW Johnson · 2019-10-26 17:24:28

Space travel does not have to be any more dangerous than air travel. The trouble is, it takes lessons-learned from fatal accidents to figure out how to do it "right", just like ALL our other industries.

What has held that back, until very recently, is the effective government monopoly on space travel. The government doesn't learn these lessons as well as the rest of us.

That picture is now beginning to change. Only just beginning.

GW

Mars_B4_Moon · 2021-05-30 16:17:37

Perhaps Musk can do it before NASA?

or
Russians are coming back?

First mission of Russia’s nuclear-powered space tug to take 50 months
https://tass.com/science/1292721

According to Bloshenko, the space tug will first approach the Moon, where a spacecraft will separate from it. After that, it will head to Venus to perform a gravity assist maneuver and deliver another spacecraft. Then, it will depart towards Jupiter and one of its satellites.

https://www.defenseworld.net/news/29641 … _Launchers
Russia, China Reach ‘Oral’ Agreement on Integration of One-another’s Manned Space Launchers

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2021-05-30 16:18:02)

louis · 2021-05-30 16:36:17

I am very pleased to read of Russia and China's fraternal co-operation on launchers...that should slow development considerably!

I expect the nuclear powered space tug is years away.

Assuming the Biden administration don't put in place any roadblocks, I think Musk is no more than 5 to 7 years away from getting humans to Mars.

I am sure there's a tale to be told of how Space X went down the rabbit holes of the FH9 development and carbon construction materials. Without going down those holes, we might be there already. But anyway I have no doubt Space X will be first, subject to no political interference.

Mars_B4_Moon wrote:

Perhaps Musk can do it before NASA?
or
Russians are coming back?
First mission of Russia’s nuclear-powered space tug to take 50 months
https://tass.com/science/1292721
According to Bloshenko, the space tug will first approach the Moon, where a spacecraft will separate from it. After that, it will head to Venus to perform a gravity assist maneuver and deliver another spacecraft. Then, it will depart towards Jupiter and one of its satellites.
https://www.defenseworld.net/news/29641 … _Launchers
Russia, China Reach ‘Oral’ Agreement on Integration of One-another’s Manned Space Launchers

Last edited by louis (2021-05-30 16:36:38)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2021-06-05 15:24:36

Maybe Moscow is jealous of Musk at this point?

They never truly landed any long term successful mission on Mars, they got 100 seconds of data before another probe died and The Phobos Grunt - the Russia sample return mission to Phobos that never happened??

Russian Space Agency Chief Calls Musk's Plans for Regular Mars Flights 'Absurdity' and 'Fairy Tales'

https://sputniknews.com/science/2021060 … iry-tales/

a real analysis or jealousy

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2021-06-05 15:24:46)

SpaceNut · 2021-06-05 16:35:24

With china going it alone for its own space station even if its only a few modules its still would make those that have had to partner seem less capable...

Mars_B4_Moon · 2021-06-14 07:11:53

Elon Musk is "the biggest architect of our time" says Jan Boelen
https://www.dezeen.com/2021/06/08/elon- … an-boelen/

'China's mission to Mars opens a new phase of the Space Race'
https://www.macleans.ca/news/world/chin … pace-race/

Elon Musk says Mars-bound Starship will launch
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl … 56911.html

kbd512 · 2021-06-14 08:36:43

GW,

There's little evidence that private industry does anything to improve "safety", except whatever is dictated to them by the government. The only clear difference is that the regulating body itself seldomly does a good job of regulating it's own safety practices. You can chalk it up to hubris or ignorance or normalcy bias or whatever else you like, but internal regulation doesn't work and it never has, because there's a built-in conflict of interest and money always wins out over survival features unless there's an outside force compelling design consideration in the other direction. A quick review of the history of flight safety practices would indicate as much. Until people die, nearly everything that regulating bodies do is reactive, rather than proactive.

We still wear lap belts on airlines, despite the fact that all available evidence indicates that helmets and five-point harnesses drastically improve survival rates during high speed crashes. However, those devices are inconvenient to wear and expensive, so they're only mandated for racing. Whether or not you think all the extra survival equipment is reasonable depends entirely upon whether or not your goal is to assure survival or minimize cost. We all know which direction we've elected to go in, but the simple fact remains that we know how to design crashworthiness into the passenger compartment of high speed vehicles, and yes, I'm fully aware of the design tradeoffs involved. I'm also not suggesting that a crash at supersonic speeds is survivable, but a crash at normal landing speeds should be, because landing accidents are so common.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2021-06-19 09:41:35

Chinese crewed spaceship docks with new space station
https://www.local10.com/news/world/2021 … e-station/

Elon Musk says he plans on selling his last remaining home in California after vowing to sell off all his possessions to fund a Mars colony.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl … 65777.html

louis · 2021-06-19 15:04:59

Thanks for that link MarsB4Moon - I wasn't aware of that rather powerful pledge from Musk.

Mars_B4_Moon wrote:

Elon Musk says he plans on selling his last remaining home in California after vowing to sell off all his possessions to fund a Mars colony.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl … 65777.html

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-01-02 10:57:54

Elon Musk promises humans will travel to Mars in 5 to 10 years?

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/elon … 77881.html

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-05-26 17:53:11

NASA shares plans for its most exciting and ambitious Mars mission

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/nas … 00752.html

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-06-26 07:10:16

NASA Reveals Three Design Concepts For Nuclear Power On The Moon
https://www.slashgear.com/904371/nasa-r … -the-moon/
NASA isn't planning on getting back to the moon alone - it will be working with other agencies and private companies

Alarmist Article

NASA fears Elon Musk rocket will explode destroying route to International Space Station
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new … t-27277395

Professor Brian Cox doesn't think humans will get to Mars until the 2040s
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech … 2040s.html

China plans to return Mars samples to Earth in 2031: report
https://www.space.com/china-return-mars … earth-2031

Twice the size of the "Titanic": 250m long fish farming ship begins trials in China. The company’s long-term ambition is to build an open sea aquaculture fleet of 50 ships with an annual output of more than 200,000 tonnes of fish by 2035.
https://salmonbusiness.com/twice-the-si … -in-china/

China aims for space-based solar power test in LEO in 2028, GEO in 2030.
https://spacenews.com/china-aims-for-sp … o-in-2030/

Calliban · 2022-06-26 08:03:44

Mars_B4_Moon wrote:

NASA Reveals Three Design Concepts For Nuclear Power On The Moon
https://www.slashgear.com/904371/nasa-r … -the-moon/
NASA isn't planning on getting back to the moon alone - it will be working with other agencies and private companies

Alarmist Article
NASA fears Elon Musk rocket will explode destroying route to International Space Station
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-new … t-27277395
Professor Brian Cox doesn't think humans will get to Mars until the 2040s
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech … 2040s.html
China plans to return Mars samples to Earth in 2031: report
https://www.space.com/china-return-mars … earth-2031
Twice the size of the "Titanic": 250m long fish farming ship begins trials in China. The company’s long-term ambition is to build an open sea aquaculture fleet of 50 ships with an annual output of more than 200,000 tonnes of fish by 2035.
https://salmonbusiness.com/twice-the-si … -in-china/
China aims for space-based solar power test in LEO in 2028, GEO in 2030.
https://spacenews.com/china-aims-for-sp … o-in-2030/

Let us hope that the Chinese are still around in 2030 to do all this stuff. It isn't looking promissing.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9YDbWNUNP2c
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jT6HFCAFDgU

Last edited by Calliban (2022-06-26 08:13:20)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-07-01 16:30:40

Can rational thought exist without language?

https://medium.com/@stoicteacher/can-ra … 52eb05ffe2

'The public has NOT fallen out of love with space': Ex-NASA astronaut Scott Kelly insists youngsters are 'extremely interested'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech … space.html

Chinese boffins suggest launching nuclear Neptune orbiter in 2030
https://www.theregister.com/2022/06/29/ … r_neptune/

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2022-07-01 16:32:24)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-08-16 06:06:15

NASA moves up launch of massive moon rocket

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/NASA … t_999.html

Mars_B4_Moon · 2023-02-10 13:04:04

China space station crew completes spacewalk
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/chin … 79521.html

NASA Rover Encounters Spectacular Metal Meteorite on Mars
https://www.sciencealert.com/nasa-rover … te-on-mars

Elon Musk's Starship fires up its engines ahead of maiden flight
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech … light.html

Macron considers stripping Putin of French Legion of Honor medal after giving the same medal to Zelenskyy
https://www.france24.com/en/france/2023 … nour-medal

SpaceNut · 2024-03-17 17:07:57

Mars society did question why not mars first rather than going to the moon but yet we are still not even to the preferred plan of the moon first.

New Mars Forums

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#101 2006-09-01 02:50:39

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#102 2006-09-01 12:39:00

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#103 2006-09-01 12:59:34

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#104 2007-02-18 06:01:59

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#105 2019-10-26 09:45:57

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#106 2019-10-26 09:58:20

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#107 2019-10-26 17:24:28

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#108 2021-05-30 16:17:37

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#109 2021-05-30 16:36:17

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#110 2021-06-05 15:24:36

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#111 2021-06-05 16:35:24

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#112 2021-06-14 07:11:53

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#113 2021-06-14 08:36:43

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#114 2021-06-19 09:41:35

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#115 2021-06-19 15:04:59

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#116 2022-01-02 10:57:54

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#117 2022-05-26 17:53:11

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#118 2022-06-26 07:10:16

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#119 2022-06-26 08:03:44

Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

#120 2022-07-01 16:30:40

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#121 2022-08-16 06:06:15

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#122 2023-02-10 13:04:04

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#123 2024-03-17 17:07:57

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