The First to Mars - Who will it be?

rstones8 · 2004-04-18 09:56:04

Just wanted to see what everyone thinks about this... most of the choices listed have announced some sort of plan (be it near-term or long-term) to put men on Mars. So the question is, who will be first? And will one group's progress cause other groups to step it up a bit to get there first? (i.e. if this private Russian company can actually do it soon, will the US speed things up?)

~Eternal~ · 2004-04-18 11:18:49

I though International Cooperation would be it, but since when has NASA ever cooperized with anybody but Russia, and barely with them too.

Then I though the RSA, but they're broke .

Ultimately, I think it will be private enterprise, or highly private enterprise supported NASA missions with civillians.

clark · 2004-04-18 13:04:02

International in scope, but led by NASA.

Even Apollo was an international endeavour. Something that dosen't get much attention, but America would have been hard pressed to do Apollo without the help of some of our less than publisized international allies.

Besides, when we go that far, the more friends we have, the better off we all are.

Josh Cryer · 2004-04-18 14:10:35

Well, with the lackluster support for any Mars missions in this current admin, I'd place my bets on China (or USA/China) before I would the USA. The true window for a Mars race is the next 10 years, not 20 years from now. In 20 years I simply don't see the conditions existing.

clark · 2004-04-18 16:34:37

Lackluster? bleh! They're pointing to Mars and saying, "let's get ready."

I think you're biased Josh.

But that's just me.

PurduesUSAFguy · 2004-04-18 22:53:46

I said NASA. I think that the current administration has very little stomach for globalism, plus for valid reasons or not many of people view the pre-Columbia ISS delays on the Russians.

I agree with this stance, I think that our exploration of the next new world should be an American (the British can come too) affair. Ideally I would like to see private industry step up to the plate, but I don't think that is in the cards at this juncture. I also think a good motivator for a continuing program is if we dumped the space treaty so that the driving ethos of the Mars program would not be 'we came in peace for all mankind' but 'We claim this next new world for the United States'. I know I'm sure I will be flame for being a jingoist or what-have-you, but every new frontier has been conquer by national expansion because that's what offers incentive, resources, territory, prestige. Plus, the Chinese haven’t signed the space treaty, and in the long run I really, really don't want to see Mars under the banner of the PRC. (Or the UN for that matter)

bolbuyk · 2004-04-19 06:34:39

I think a Russian-European mission. (voted 'ínternational')

Palomar · 2004-04-19 10:28:16

*So hard to predict even the near future, given the current chaos.

Unless something REALLY goes drastically wrong, I think the U.S./NASA will because, given we were first on the Moon, I can't believe this nation and NASA will allow someone else the glory of being first on Mars.

And as long-time members know, I'm absolutely in favor of an international mission. Heck, I just want to SEE humans walking on Mars before I kick the bucket...I don't care *where* they are from.

--Cindy

clark · 2004-04-19 11:15:50

The first on Mars?

me. :laugh:

TheMadCap · 2004-04-19 16:01:50

*So hard to predict even the near future, given the current chaos.
Unless something REALLY goes drastically wrong, I think the U.S./NASA will because, given we were first on the Moon, I can't believe this nation and NASA will allow someone else the glory of being first on Mars.
And as long-time members know, I'm absolutely in favor of an international mission. Heck, I just want to SEE humans walking on Mars before I kick the bucket...I don't care *where* they are from.
--Cindy

I totally agree, all I want before I die is to see humans walk on Mars, regardless of where they are from. Secondly, for the question of life on another planet (my money is on Europa, Titan is another interesting local) to be definitively answered.

That's not too much to ask is it?

To answer the original question, I think it will likely be a combination of several groups, NASA, the international community, and the private sector. NASA will certainly not be left out of the deal, besides, they could bankroll much of the cost. I would think that as the first mission to Mars be undertaken in a world setting, with several countries contributing to the cause. The private sector is the unknown, it still remains to be seen what new advances they will contribute. I'm thinking inovative technologies like Dr. Zubrin's ISPP.

Mundaka · 2004-04-21 16:05:39

clark · 2004-04-21 18:01:56

Mundaka, I'll take that bet.

rstones8 · 2004-04-21 20:08:48

I don't doubt that China has the technical capabilities and motivation to put a man on Mars, but I do doubt that the US will let them be the first. It would mean the beginning of the end of the American dominated era, and I just don't see this country letting that happen over someting we are just as capable of doing.

Euler · 2004-04-21 21:08:32

Also, it looks like China is planning to have a permanent manned Moon base (possibly for mining He3) before working towards a manned Mars mission.

idiom · 2004-04-21 21:44:57

What are the odds of a non-superpower doing it?

If a small government followed all the shortcuts and was happy with mega-risk could it be done?

If they built a rocket that could get 10 tonne one way, they could put a person or persons on mars for four years or so.

Terminal yes, but it would give everyone a run for their money though.

PurduesUSAFguy · 2004-04-21 21:45:23

Also, it looks like China is planning to have a permanent manned Moon base (possibly for mining He3) before working towards a manned Mars mission.

I seriously doubt the Chinese are making plans for helium-3 mining. We are just on the verge of getting consistent results from ALCOR class tokomaks using the tritium-deuterium which has a much lower ignition temperature then helium3-duterium fusion. Granted HE3/DH is preferable to D/T since it doesn't leave an extra neutron, but commercially viable tokomaks of any kind are still likely 10 years away in the US. The PRC which is essentially 50 years behind us on the technological playing field, I'll take them seriously when they get things like ubiquitous indoor plumbing and electricity.

Euler · 2004-04-21 22:20:55

Top Chinese space officials http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/ch … 4.html]say that they intend to mine helium3 on the moon.

The PRC which is essentially 50 years behind us on the technological playing field, I'll take them seriously when they get things like ubiquitous indoor plumbing and electricity.

There are some places in rural China that are pretty backwards, but the cities are pretty modern. I would say that they are about 10 years behind us rather than 50.

idiom · 2004-04-22 00:52:40

Russia was a rural nightmare when Sputnik was launched.

Besides that, a tiny amount of industrial espoinage combined with a brilliant engineer and the Chinese could solve it all overnight. There are precedents.

Besides, they have 20 years until they need a place to put all the He3 the have3 mined from the moon.

Mundaka · 2004-04-22 02:55:11

idiom · 2004-04-22 03:46:49

Yeah but:

2010 : Launch Space Station
2020: Build Moon Base
2030: Launch pre-emptive Nuclear Strike on USA

will not win you more free trade agreements. Worse yet it will cause Americans to empty their pockets to build said base first.[

Mundaka · 2004-04-22 04:19:43

Bill White · 2004-04-22 07:31:50

Machiavelli teaches that the best way to control colonies is not with standing armies (or space navies) but with friendly civilian settlers.

Permanent civilian space settlements that engage in commercial enterprise are China's best weapon to defeat the West in any space race. Babies. Which group does the best at making babies in space?

I suspect the Chinese view this next space race as a 200 year competition (tortoise and hare?) and they intend a re-play of that episode 500 years ago when their ocean going ships were burned. With our 4 year election cycle (and quarterly profit/loss statement mentality) we Americans are not well situated to fight or win such an extended conflict.

PurduesUSAFguy · 2004-04-22 09:19:06

Yeah but:
2010 : Launch Space Station
2020: Build Moon Base
2030: Launch pre-emptive Nuclear Strike on USA
will not win you more free trade agreements. Worse yet it will cause Americans to empty their pockets to build said base first.
Right conclusion, but from the wrong premise. :;): (Welcome aboard, btw.)
China isn't interested in ruling the planet or even going to war, but they are determined to rule Asia, see it as their historical destiny, and are willing to fight anyone via any method to effect that result. They have been candid about their intentions and their actions coincide with their statements.
If you study China for any length of time one thing becomes abundanty clear -- they ain't four flushers. Bluff isn't even in their vocabulary (well, I don't speak Chinese so I'm probably wrong literally, but you get the point.) If they say something or make a threat, take it at face value that they mean it.
If they mean to control orbit, I doubt they will bother with a space station -- the USSR tried that with Salyut and found the experiment impractical, though probably successful. Better just to put a base on the Moon and hold it against all comers.
China sees America as a powerful obstical, but also as a society that is in decline and has lost its will, its moral certainty, its ability to sacrifice -- and its backbone. If they can use that to avoid war and sell us more billions of dollars worth of plastic baubles, so much the better. If they must fight us, well, there are always more Chinese. A serious rival, being dealt with by -- a pack of illiterate frat boys. (A.K.A. our current leaders.)
Not that I have anything against frat boys: I was one myself -- but I'm cognisant of the fact that it was long ago. One would think a contender for congress or the presidency would have done the same. Ah well, I suppose we can all go out and celebrate "earth day".
EDIT: PurdueUSAFguy, speaking of China, what can you tell us about their new Lavi based fighter?

In reguard to their new fighter, well as far as any home grown (read as Russo Chinese hybrid) I am seriously unimpressed by what I have seen. Their flight control and combat management systems are laughable, using an archaic system they copied from Dassault. They have serious issues with their engines, both in their efficiency and in their metallurgy.

As far as Chinese space control.....

All I'm going to say is space warfare has been the number one priority for us since the late 90s, we're spending about 120 billion a year on it all said and done, and only a fraction of that is in the 'white' world. I agree that a war with the PRC is in the cards, but I think they highly overestimate the effectiveness of their 'warrior spirit'. Let's keep in mind the Japanese thought that one of their soldiers was the equal of five of ours.

As far as the 'decline' of America I find that a moot point. We finally have leaders that recognize the importance of the military, and especially R and D. Our economy is second to none and is the most robust and fastest growing in the western world. We continue to produce and develop science and technology because of our universities, national labs, and space program. We are not on the eve of the end of the American Hegeonomy; we are merely at its dawn.

As far as the 'illiterate frat boys' comment, look up Bush’s credentials; if you still think he is unintelligent you are simply kidding yourself.

Bill White · 2004-04-22 09:35:57

As far as the 'decline' of America I find that a moot point. We finally have leaders that recognize the importance of the military, and especially R and D. Our economy is second to none and is the most robust and fastest growing in the western world. We continue to produce and develop science and technology because of our universities, national labs, and space program. We are not on the eve of the end of the American Hegeonomy; we are merely at its dawn.

Demographics is destiny. In a 200 year race, raising children is more important that raising space navies.

The next great space race will be over which society is best able to establish self-sustaining growing colonies off of the Earth.

I hope we westerners win that one since I am rather partial to Western Civilization. I have a hard time being sanguine, however.

clark · 2004-04-22 09:45:52

I have had the pleasure to hear another perspective on Bush, through a second hand recounting of Bush, during his Yale days.

A person who is rather well respected in their profession went to school with Bush, and made a small comment related to Bush. To sum, "the man was an idiot then, and he is an idiot now."

Some google fun if you haven't heard, type in "miserable failure", then click on "I'm feeling lucky". Enjoy.

Bill, I agree with you, but what they look like is less important than what they read! Ideas are the parasites, and if that is the case, America is best positioned for space. Why? Becuase there is no ethnic identity that limits the introduction of new cultural ideas. Think of it as our trump card.

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Re: The First to Mars - Who will it be?

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