Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

louis · 2018-04-21 19:56:22

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7G_ChY0Tsxw

This is a really excellent video which I think makes a lot of sense of current developments. I like it not least because I think it backs up my optimistic take on BFR development which has been subject to some criticism here! lol

Last edited by louis (2018-04-22 05:23:00)

clark · 2018-04-21 20:11:25

Has Musk ever hit his initial stated timeline? Mid to late 2030, at the earliest.

louis · 2018-04-21 20:23:28

Totally irrelevant.

Like asking "Did Bell hit a few problems along the way? ", "Did Edison experience a few difficulties before he achieved major success?" or "Did Archimedes ever feel he wouldn't amount to much? "

See the video I posted about BFR development. They are a lot closer than you think.

clark wrote:

Has Musk ever hit his initial stated timeline? Mid to late 2030, at the earliest.

clark · 2018-04-21 20:31:23

I paid you the respect of viewing the video before posting.

Your analysis is shallow.

Oldfart1939 · 2018-04-21 22:03:09

Some of the commentary is also inaccurate; the Raptor engine isn't to the production stage yet, and they need 42 of them. I would be surprised and pleased to see a BFS "Grasshopper" fly sometime in 2019. Ditto, the first Falcon 2 test flight and the launch abort flight.

And yes, I too, watched the video first before commenting.

Last edited by Oldfart1939 (2018-04-21 22:04:25)

RobertDyck · 2018-04-21 23:49:26

Elon Musk mentioned Falcon Heavy in a news conference in September 2005. First test flight was 2018, and hasn't launched payload yet. MCT/ITS was announced at IAC in September 2016. So should we expect BFR to fly 2029?

louis · 2018-04-22 05:36:25

There's no comparison. Space X was founded only in 2002. Space X had started from scratch. Musk may have indulged in some wild optimism in 2005 re the Falcon 9 Heavy but now we are in a different place. As the video makes clear, Space X are already well advanced on the engine testing, the propellant tank, and the machine tool for the body. Furthermore they now have a wealth of experience in rocket design which they didn't have in 2005. A 2022 cargo launch to Mars is clearly very ambitious and could be derailed if anything does not proceed as planned. However, I think the chances of them missing a 2024 date for that cargo launch are much more remote.

RobertDyck wrote:

Elon Musk mentioned Falcon Heavy in a news conference in September 2005. First test flight was 2018, and hasn't launched payload yet. MCT/ITS was announced at IAC in September 2016. So should we expect BFR to fly 2029?

louis · 2018-04-22 05:44:27

See above - I think it's shallow to simply say "he's missed previous target deadlines by a mile so he will miss this one by a mile".

As the video makes clear, work on the BFR is already well advanced.

clark wrote:

I paid you the respect of viewing the video before posting.
Your analysis is shallow.

Void · 2018-04-22 08:37:05

Louis, it is still my intention to very much limit my activity in most threads on this site. Still thanks for the video. I watched it, and then a second video about blue origins came on. I am going to discuss both in General System.

Void

clark · 2018-04-22 08:39:48

I look forward to the very unlikely event of being wrong.

SpaceNut · 2018-04-22 08:46:26

Most activity of space build from near scratch design takes about 6 years to get to a launch so I see no reason not to feel that the Space x timeline is being compressed to get to the launch target. Money and brute force can only go so far towards being successful for each launch.

clark · 2018-04-22 10:28:04

louis, watch Starlink. That is the long term funding source for the BFR, which means it is more likely to dictate timelines for BFR.

louis · 2018-04-22 11:37:45

Starlink will certainly be a potential source of funding for longer term Mars colonisation. But I don't think Mission One is dependent on it. For one thing, major sponsorship will be available for Mission One.

clark wrote:

louis, watch Starlink. That is the long term funding source for the BFR, which means it is more likely to dictate timelines for BFR.

louis · 2018-04-22 17:07:24

Looks like Space X might get government funding for the BFR (from the USAF).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3Vl78FY_3A

clark wrote:

louis, watch Starlink. That is the long term funding source for the BFR, which means it is more likely to dictate timelines for BFR.

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#1 2018-04-21 19:56:22

Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

#2 2018-04-21 20:11:25

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

#3 2018-04-21 20:23:28

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

#4 2018-04-21 20:31:23

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

#5 2018-04-21 22:03:09

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

#6 2018-04-21 23:49:26

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

#7 2018-04-22 05:36:25

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

#8 2018-04-22 05:44:27

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

#9 2018-04-22 08:37:05

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

#10 2018-04-22 08:39:48

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

#11 2018-04-22 08:46:26

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

#12 2018-04-22 10:28:04

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

#13 2018-04-22 11:37:45

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

#14 2018-04-22 17:07:24

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

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