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#1 2018-04-21 19:56:22

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 7,208

Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7G_ChY0Tsxw

This is a really excellent video which I think makes a lot of sense of current developments. I like it not least because I think it backs up my optimistic take on BFR development which has been subject to some criticism here! lol

Last edited by louis (2018-04-22 05:23:00)


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#2 2018-04-21 20:11:25

clark
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Registered: 2001-09-20
Posts: 6,362

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

Has Musk ever hit his initial stated timeline? Mid to late 2030, at the earliest.

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#3 2018-04-21 20:23:28

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 7,208

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

Totally irrelevant.

Like asking "Did Bell hit a few problems along the way? ",  "Did Edison experience a few difficulties before he achieved major success?" or "Did Archimedes ever feel he wouldn't amount to much? "

See the video I posted about BFR development. They are a lot closer than you think. smile




clark wrote:

Has Musk ever hit his initial stated timeline? Mid to late 2030, at the earliest.


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#4 2018-04-21 20:31:23

clark
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Registered: 2001-09-20
Posts: 6,362

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

I paid you the respect of viewing the video before posting.

Your analysis is shallow.

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#5 2018-04-21 22:03:09

Oldfart1939
Member
Registered: 2016-11-26
Posts: 2,366

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

Some of the commentary is also inaccurate; the Raptor engine isn't to the production stage yet, and they need 42 of them. I would be surprised and pleased to see a BFS "Grasshopper" fly sometime in 2019. Ditto, the first Falcon 2 test flight and the launch abort flight.

And yes, I too, watched the video first before commenting.

Last edited by Oldfart1939 (2018-04-21 22:04:25)

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#6 2018-04-21 23:49:26

RobertDyck
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From: Winnipeg, Canada
Registered: 2002-08-20
Posts: 7,781
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Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

Elon Musk mentioned Falcon Heavy in a news conference in September 2005. First test flight was 2018, and hasn't launched payload yet. MCT/ITS was announced at IAC in September 2016. So should we expect BFR to fly 2029?

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#7 2018-04-22 05:36:25

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 7,208

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

There's no comparison. Space X was founded only in 2002.  Space X had started from scratch.  Musk may have indulged in some wild optimism in 2005 re the Falcon 9 Heavy but now we are in a different place. As the video makes clear, Space X are already well advanced on the engine testing, the propellant tank, and the machine tool for the body. Furthermore they now have a wealth of experience in rocket design which they didn't have in 2005. A 2022 cargo launch to Mars is clearly very ambitious and could be derailed if anything does not proceed as planned.  However, I think the chances of them missing a 2024 date for that cargo launch are much more remote.

RobertDyck wrote:

Elon Musk mentioned Falcon Heavy in a news conference in September 2005. First test flight was 2018, and hasn't launched payload yet. MCT/ITS was announced at IAC in September 2016. So should we expect BFR to fly 2029?


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#8 2018-04-22 05:44:27

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 7,208

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

See above - I think it's shallow to simply say "he's missed previous target deadlines by a mile so he will miss this one by a mile".

As the video makes clear, work on the BFR is already well advanced.


clark wrote:

I paid you the respect of viewing the video before posting.

Your analysis is shallow.


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#9 2018-04-22 08:37:05

Void
Member
Registered: 2011-12-29
Posts: 6,976

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

Louis, it is still my intention to very much limit my activity in most threads on this site.  Still thanks for the video.  I watched it, and then a second video about blue origins came on.  I am going to discuss both in General System.


Void


Done.

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#10 2018-04-22 08:39:48

clark
Member
Registered: 2001-09-20
Posts: 6,362

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

I look forward to the very unlikely event of being wrong.

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#11 2018-04-22 08:46:26

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 28,747

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

Most activity of space build from near scratch design takes about 6 years to get to a launch so I see no reason not to feel that the Space x timeline is being compressed to get to the launch target. Money and brute force can only go so far towards being successful for each launch.

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#12 2018-04-22 10:28:04

clark
Member
Registered: 2001-09-20
Posts: 6,362

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

louis, watch Starlink. That is the long term funding source for the BFR, which means it is more likely to dictate timelines for BFR.

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#13 2018-04-22 11:37:45

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 7,208

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

Starlink will certainly be a potential source of funding for longer term Mars colonisation. But I don't think Mission One is dependent on it. For one thing, major sponsorship will be available for Mission One.

clark wrote:

louis, watch Starlink. That is the long term funding source for the BFR, which means it is more likely to dictate timelines for BFR.


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#14 2018-04-22 17:07:24

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 7,208

Re: Interesting vid - where Space X is on BFR development! (Gd news!!)

Looks like Space X might get government funding for the BFR (from the USAF).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3Vl78FY_3A

clark wrote:

louis, watch Starlink. That is the long term funding source for the BFR, which means it is more likely to dictate timelines for BFR.


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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