Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

Dook · 2016-10-05 16:27:27

kbd512 wrote:

Dook wrote:
You can make craft bowls from basalt? You think people are going to pay $140,000 to go to Mars so they can make their own bowls from dirt? And make their own furniture out of bamboo?
I'm guessing that you wouldn't. This is clearly going to be a revelation to you, but not everyone likes what you like or thinks the way you do.
Dook wrote:
Water is not all over the place on Mars. Ice is and it's mixed with regolith and frozen CO2. Do you know what happens when your habitat atmosphere goes over 1% CO2?
That'd be double the exposure limit for an eight hour work day in most places, but it's survivable for short periods of time.
Dook wrote:
There are already 3D printers on the ISS? Then why aren't they making their own food, water, oxygen, other ISS modules, rocket fuel, building materials, glass, kitchen utensils? If the ISS has a 3D printer how come there isn't an economy between the ISS and the Earth?
3D printing rocket fuel? Seriously?
ISS is a research laboratory located in a hard vacuum. There isn't much in the way of readily available resources.
Are there many research laboratories pumping out commercial products that I'm unaware of?

And I'm guessing that you would pay $140,000 to go to Mars so you can spend most of your days stuck inside a habitat making bowls out of dirt and eating out of bowls made from dirt. People who like that kind of thing, are running away from something, otherwise there is no way in hell they would go.

Please give all the details as to how you manufacture things on Mars.

I'm still waiting.

louis · 2016-10-05 17:12:33

1. Farming - Farming on Mars will not be as with farming on Earth. It won't be outdoor for one thing. It will be in a controlled environment, either underground or under a glass/plastic dome. You will need to do calculations, operate a computer, observe safety instructions meticulously, understand the growth of not just one or two crops but maybe 50 or a 100, make detailed observations and records. You may need to know how to manufacture soil on Mars, or where to prospect for water. So, yes, you will need to be highly educated. Certainly you can't be an illiterate peasant or even one educated only to say primary level.

2. Scientists and engineers - I am not saying scientists and engineers won't want to go to Mars - in fact hundreds of thousands will be keen to go, for a year or two or maybe three...but not to migrate there permanently on a one way ticket. That is fatal to Musk's plan.

3. Female fertility - Don't think you've read the stats. The vast majority of women in the Western world still want and still have children - just not at replacement levels in some cases. To sign up for the Musk plan would be to say you were not going to have children...or are you seriously stating that we should experiment with low G pregnancies on a mass scale, with no knowledge of the outcome (there already being evidence to suggest foetal development in a low G environment would be harmed)?

4. The area of the USA is or was for the most part a remarkably fecund territory with huge natural resources easily accessed - wood, water, iron ore, animals for hunting, potential farmland etc. Mars by contrast is suitable for ISRU but one has to work hard and at a high tech level, certainly in the early stages, to be successful. That's why you need the narrow range of suitable colonists. People who are lacking in social or technical skills, people who have strong religious opinions, people who believe in primitive notions like withcraft, people who are too theoretical in their approach, people who are mentally unbalanced will all be a complete liability to the early colony.

5. I am not arguing for frugality for frugality's sake, as a moral judgement, I am arguing for it as a good strategy. Trying to create California on the plateaus of Mars in one fell swoop is not going to work in my view. But the frugality is a somewhat elastic concept. The early colonists will be energy rich - and that will be the secret to building the colony. Their energy use per capita will be many, many times that of a US citizen...probably by a factor of 100, perhaps a thousand or more. And it is the energy that will enable them to overcome the obstacles presented that harsh Mars presents. With energy (initially photovoltaic but later including a range of sources) they can make air, mine water, make soil, provide energy for plants to grow, power diggers, make bricks, mine iron ore, manufacture steel and make propellant...

kbd512 wrote:

louis wrote:
But how many people capable of being useful early permanent colonists to Mars do we think there are in the world? How many young women are going to foresake the chance of beginning a family? How many people have that combination of intelligence, useful practical ability, good scientific understanding, drive, psychological stability, good interpersonal skills, preparedness for self-sacrifice and so on in the world? - I mean among those who are prepared to give up living on Earth and relocate to Mars, abandoning family and friends forever or for many years, as Musk proposes? Such people are not going to be driven by poverty or oppression as most American migrants were.
You don't really believe your own BS about people needing advanced degrees to be farmers, do you?
Sure, you need some scientists and engineers. If none are willing to go, that says a lot more about the willingness to sacrifice to advance humanity of our "learned betters" than it does about the common man or woman, doesn't it?
Are you serious about the comment about not starting families? Do you keep up with many demographic trends in western countries? Most women aren't having any children. Most young adults just want to have sex without consequence.
louis wrote:
In my view it's really a non-starter. There just won't be the suitable, I stress suitable, candidates for Musk's colonies in such large numbers.
The people who came from England weren't really suited for life in the colonies here in America. Initially, some died, but last time I checked many others lived.
Maybe the Mexicans who come to the US who can't speak a word of English aren't very "suitable" Americans, but they do seem to be pretty damn industrious and don't whine or cry about their living conditions nearly as much as the coddled little university students and faculty members who need their safe spaces because they can't deal with the fact that someone else disagrees with them.
louis wrote:
That's why the economies of scale fail in this project and why we need the economies of frugality in the early stages - maximum ISRU and a frills-free lifestyle on Mars with a fairly rigid command system to begin with, and limited tours of duty.
Frugality is already practiced by our poor, un-educated immigrants we have here. And it will be practiced on Mars, too.
I have pairs of pants that are older than my children and still regularly use them to do yard work. They still fit and that's good enough for me.

kbd512 · 2016-10-05 17:48:41

Dook wrote:

And I'm guessing that you would pay $140,000 to go to Mars so you can spend most of your days stuck inside a habitat making bowls out of dirt and eating out of bowls made from dirt. People who like that kind of thing, are running away from something, otherwise there is no way in hell they would go.
Please give all the details as to how you manufacture things on Mars.
I'm still waiting.

Dook,

Here on Earth, those not eating out of plastic bowls are generally eating out of bowls made from dirt. I have a cupboard full of them. They're dirt common and dirt cheap. Sorry, couldn't resist. I made a coffee mug, a bowl, and a plate from clay in an art class as a child. No advanced education was required. Perfection was not required, either. The mug didn't leak, the bowl and plate both held food, and all were washed without issue.

I suspect I'd need regolith ground into a very fine powder, some water to bind it, and an electric kiln to bake it on Mars.

My father gave me two books on basic electronics from Radioshack when I was seven or eight. From those books and with a few parts from Radioshack, I was able to make one AM, one FM, and one AM/FM radio with a few small bread boards and a soldering iron. The soldering job wasn't the greatest, but the reception was every bit as good as the Sony radio my mother purchased for me. I made my own steel and tile table, baseball bat, and tool boxes in junior high school (except for the bat, which I lost or threw away while moving, all are still in use today).

If I was permitted to take all of my retirement money when I retire and move to Mars to do my small part to establish a colony intended to assure the survival of humanity, I would gladly do so, even if it ultimately lead to my own death. I would rather use the end of my life to be of service to other people than grow so old that I'm a burden to others.

My doctor told me I shouldn't smoke. I told her that I was not concerned about dying and would refuse cancer treatment. She looked at me like I just told her that she wasn't god. I asked her if it was better that I should require tens of thousands of dollars of medical care and many hours of labor to care for me or to simply accept the fact that I'm going to die. When and where is not overly important to me. She didn't have a good answer for that one.

I've spent months on ships where I never once saw the sun or left a steel compartment. I slept in a berthing with one hundred ten filthy stinking men all doing their part to keep our ship operational. My house is substantially bigger than that compartment. Sometimes it's not much fun, but you learn to make do with what you have and spend the few hours you do have to yourself reading or learning.

What exactly do you suppose people who go to Mars will be running away from when they're all confined to a tiny base with a handful of other people who literally hold each others' lives in their hands?

Dook · 2016-10-05 18:35:56

So we can make ceramic things on Mars? And all you think that all you need is ground regolith, water, and an electric kiln. So you're going to do this outside on Mars, holding your breath the whole time? Where does the electricity for the kiln come from? Where did you get the water from and how do you keep it from freezing outside on Mars?

You all still have the cart, way, way, way before the horse.

Once we get an idea of how many launches it's going to take to set up the FIRST colony, THEN we can get an idea of how many launches it's going to take to expand it.

Some of you have beautiful water color paintings of what the colony will look like in 500 years but you somehow think that it's only going to take 50 years.

You were able to make an AM/FM radio with parts from Radio Shack? Uhh, why didn't you process dirt to make the radio? I thought the idea was to manufacture everything on Mars from Mars regolith and you're describing assembling a radio on the Earth from store bought parts. Please detail everything that is needed to make a radio on Mars from regolith and describe how many launches that it will take. Don't forget the components for the habitat this time.

You made your own steel and tile table? So you processed iron ore and added carbon to make it into steel and then poured the liquid steel into a mold to cool and then molded the steel into the table? Or did you buy the steel already made and just cut it?

You would move to Mars if you could even if it meant dying? I'm sure you would. For most of human history people have done some crazy things. Now, we can take our time, there's no hurry.

How are you going to get cigarettes on Mars? Do you actually think that other people are going to put up with you smoking inside the hab? Do you think a colony is going to waste crop production space to grow tobacco for you? Oh, do you think you would have your own hab/home on Mars?

People on Mars does not ensure the survival of humanity. You would be a burden to the rest of us.

What do I think that people going to Mars are running away from something? Well, on the Earth we have many food choices, many entertainment choices, many choices of where we should live, many choices of friends, many choices for work, why leave that for less choices? The only way someone does that is someone who feels like they are stuck and can't get out of their situation.

Last edited by Dook (2016-10-05 18:37:46)

kbd512 · 2016-10-05 18:39:01

louis wrote:

1. Farming - Farming on Mars will not be as with farming on Earth. It won't be outdoor for one thing. It will be in a controlled environment, either underground or under a glass/plastic dome. You will need to do calculations, operate a computer, observe safety instructions meticulously, understand the growth of not just one or two crops but maybe 50 or a 100, make detailed observations and records. You may need to know how to manufacture soil on Mars, or where to prospect for water. So, yes, you will need to be highly educated. Certainly you can't be an illiterate peasant or even one educated only to say primary level.

Louis,

Tell me what kinds of calculations a Martian farmer would need to perform that we couldn't program into an iPhone app. Most children have figured out more about how those devices work than the people who purchased them. I wasn't suggesting that you could be illiterate or not know how an airlock works, but you don't need any sort of advanced education to be a successful farmer, here or on Mars. We wouldn't be here today if such were the case. Farmers on Mars are going to grow the exact same foods we grow here on Earth. The monitoring equipment will be more sophisticated, but the farmer need not be.

louis wrote:

3. Female fertility - Don't think you've read the stats. The vast majority of women in the Western world still want and still have children - just not at replacement levels in some cases. To sign up for the Musk plan would be to say you were not going to have children...or are you seriously stating that we should experiment with low G pregnancies on a mass scale, with no knowledge of the outcome (there already being evidence to suggest foetal development in a low G environment would be harmed)?

Define "vast majority".

How would we be experimenting on a "mass scale" with a handful of initial colonists?

louis wrote:

4. The area of the USA is or was for the most part a remarkably fecund territory with huge natural resources easily accessed - wood, water, iron ore, animals for hunting, potential farmland etc. Mars by contrast is suitable for ISRU but one has to work hard and at a high tech level, certainly in the early stages, to be successful. That's why you need the narrow range of suitable colonists. People who are lacking in social or technical skills, people who have strong religious opinions, people who believe in primitive notions like withcraft, people who are too theoretical in their approach, people who are mentally unbalanced will all be a complete liability to the early colony.

Humans need more energy on Mars to harvest the natural resources. I would think we'd send reactors with them to take care of that problem unless we just want to arbitrarily make life more difficult there than it already is.

louis wrote:

5. I am not arguing for frugality for frugality's sake, as a moral judgement, I am arguing for it as a good strategy. Trying to create California on the plateaus of Mars in one fell swoop is not going to work in my view. But the frugality is a somewhat elastic concept. The early colonists will be energy rich - and that will be the secret to building the colony. Their energy use per capita will be many, many times that of a US citizen...probably by a factor of 100, perhaps a thousand or more. And it is the energy that will enable them to overcome the obstacles presented that harsh Mars presents. With energy (initially photovoltaic but later including a range of sources) they can make air, mine water, make soil, provide energy for plants to grow, power diggers, make bricks, mine iron ore, manufacture steel and make propellant...

You're correct. If you have sufficient power, then the environment is not an insurmountable problem. The initial power source should be a fission reactor, not a solar panel farm.

Void · 2016-10-05 19:08:42

No need for response, or is a response prohibited.

My interest is to catalog what are the bulk materials available on Mars, and in my opinion many good ones have been identified.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ore_resources_on_Mars
1) Dunes:

Dark sand dunes are common on the surface of Mars. Their dark tone is due to the volcanic rock called basalt. The basalt dunes are believed to contain the minerals chromite, magnetite, and ilmenite.[39] Since the wind has gathered them together, they do not even have to be mined, merely scooped up.[40] These minerals could supply future colonists with chromium, iron, and titanium.

*Dune materials in my opinion could also be reacted with water to produce Hydrogen, and support some kind of chemosynthetic biological system.

2) I have picked on Louis previously so I will offer this as penance:
hematite appears to be represented on Mars as "Blueberries" and there is at least one very large ore body available.

3) I do not think that cramped quarters have to be a necessary constant. One possible method of relief could be sandstone caves, and there are other possibilities.
https://www.wentevineyards.com/weddings … tone-caves

4) Water: a) Polar caps & surrounding ground deposits. b) Mid Latitude glaciers. c) Unproven speculation on vast amounts of fossil ice in the bottom of the Mariner Rift Valley, and possibly other similar locations at the ~equator.

5) Atmospheric CO and O2. A reservoir of fuel and Oxygen. Granted, very tenuous, but if the lock can be picked, something that we don't even have on Earth. Can you get fuel out of the air on Earth?

6) Yes it might be good to get a few small donated fission reactors to make life easier in the beginning, and to try solar cells, but really, I think the big energy will be with solar power towers coupled with the cold of night. The coupling method would be thermal reservoirs. Those could be ice covered reservoirs, or actually fracked wells, which might even be able to tap geothermal. As Antius has pointed out radiating waste heat away is likely going to be a desire of advanced civilizations.

And Mars has a special concentration of heavy water, for when fusion becomes real.

That's enough in my opinion to represent the unfulfilled potential. Other things could be added.

So we have logs to put on the fire, but need to build a fireplace and start a fire.

So, in the stone age dook, would you be the guy saying "You could never start a fire, and how are you going to keep it"?

Yes, I am being a jerk. I actually agree with you that much, much has to be accomplished before this fire can be lit, fostered and enjoyed, but not trying is a sure way to not do it.

It seems that nature wants us to birth a higher form of human. I think we should give it a try, many tries.

Or we could go into a circular orbit and wait for the works of our ancestors to be spent down, and then just pull the dirt over ourselves. I think not.

Lots of good stuff on Mars. Just have to set free the people who manipulate objects. That is set them free from the vampires who drink their produced energy, using words as a bondage method.

How long will it take? It will take as long as it takes. How long can we try? Until the vampires take our civilization into a death spiral.

Last edited by Void (2016-10-05 19:35:51)

Dook · 2016-10-05 19:54:05

Void wrote:

No need for response, or is a response prohibited.
My interest is to catalog what are the bulk materials available on Mars, and in my opinion many good ones have been identified.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ore_resources_on_Mars
1) Dunes:
Dark sand dunes are common on the surface of Mars. Their dark tone is due to the volcanic rock called basalt. The basalt dunes are believed to contain the minerals chromite, magnetite, and ilmenite.[39] Since the wind has gathered them together, they do not even have to be mined, merely scooped up.[40] These minerals could supply future colonists with chromium, iron, and titanium.
*Dune materials in my opinion could also be reacted with water to produce Hydrogen, and support some kind of chemosynthetic biological system.
2) I have picked on Louis previously so I will offer this as penance:
hematite appears to be represented on Mars as "Blueberries" and there is at least one very large ore body available.
3) I do not think that cramped quarters have to be a necessary constant. One possible method of relief could be sandstone caves, and there are other possibilities.
https://www.wentevineyards.com/weddings … tone-caves
https://www.wentevineyards.com/uploads/ … e/club.jpg
4) Water: a) Polar caps & surrounding ground deposits. b) Mid Latitude glaciers. c) Unproven speculation on vast amounts of fossil ice in the bottom of the Mariner Rift Valley, and possibly other similar locations at the ~equator.
5) Atmospheric CO and O2. A reservoir of fuel and Oxygen. Granted, very tenuous, but if the lock can be picked, something that we don't even have on Earth. Can you get fuel out of the air on Earth?
6) Yes it might be good to get a few small donated fission reactors to make life easier in the beginning, and to try solar cells, but really, I think the big energy will be with solar power towers coupled with the cold of night. The coupling method would be thermal reservoirs. Those could be ice covered reservoirs, or actually fracked wells, which might even be able to tap geothermal. As Antius has pointed out radiating waste heat away is likely going to be a desire of advanced civilizations.
And Mars has a special concentration of heavy water, for when fusion becomes real.
That's enough in my opinion to represent the unfulfilled potential. Other things could be added.
So we have logs to put on the fire, but need to build a fireplace and start a fire.
So, in the stone age dook, would you be the guy saying "You could never start a fire, and how are you going to keep it"?
Yes, I am being a jerk. I actually agree with you that much, much has to be accomplished before this fire can be lit, fostered and enjoyed, but not trying is a sure way to not do it.
It seems that nature wants us to birth a higher form of human. I think we should give it a try, many tries.
Or we could go into a circular orbit and wait for the works of our ancestors to be spent down, and then just pull the dirt over ourselves. I think not.
Lots of good stuff on Mars. Just have to set free the people who manipulate objects. That is set them free from the vampires who drink their produced energy, using words as a bondage method.
How long will it take? It will take as long as it takes. How long can we try? Until the vampires take our civilization into a death spiral.

You know how I start fire? I turn the propane on and click the bbq lighter. This is not the stone age. Mars won't be the stone age either.

I never argued against the potential of Mars. My argument is with your timeline. The colony thing ain't gonna happen in the time some of you think it will.

Instead of trying to get together the materials to make a ceramic bowl from scratch on Mars we'll send a box of plastic bowls that will last 100 years at least and weigh a couple of pounds.

I never said don't try, well, the 100 person rocket idea is pure stupidity and the 1 million people on Mars in 50 years is just absolutely wrong.

I think we should plan to go to Mars using the Mars Direct plan. Before that we should have a Mars spacecraft that tests the MOXIE unit and we should have a sample return mission. I don't really care about timelines.

Nature wants us to birth a higher form of human? What does that mean?

The works of our ancestors to be spent down? I got news for you, humanity is not on it's last legs. So you want to go to Mars because you want to hide from the rest of humanity. What makes you think that the people who go with you to Mars won't tie you up and cut off your extremities and cook them for food when the heat shield fails on the Mars colony food shipment spacecraft and it burns up on entry? KBD512 would be okay with it, to him that's contributing to humanity.

kbd512 · 2016-10-05 20:00:39

Dook wrote:

So we can make ceramic things on Mars? And all you think that all you need is ground regolith, water, and an electric kiln. So you're going to do this outside on Mars, holding your breath the whole time? Where does the electricity for the kiln come from? Where did you get the water from and how do you keep it from freezing outside on Mars?

I'm an atheist, but Jesus H. We're not reinventing the wheel. We're transporting particularly useful pieces of technology that all of humanity has worked to develop to another planet merely to start the process of spreading human life throughout our own solar system.

Dook wrote:

You all still have the cart, way, way, way before the horse.

Define the horse, please.

Dook wrote:

Once we get an idea of how many launches it's going to take to set up the FIRST colony, THEN we can get an idea of how many launches it's going to take to expand it.

If we had that BFR that SpaceX is working on, it probably wouldn't take that many. Is two launches too many to be to your liking?

Dook wrote:

Some of you have beautiful water color paintings of what the colony will look like in 500 years but you somehow think that it's only going to take 50 years.

The first man had been sent into space when Kennedy announced that we'd put a man on the moon within ten years. Less than ten years later, men were hopping around on the moon like rabbits and anybody who had access to a TV was watching them do it.

Dook wrote:

You were able to make an AM/FM radio with parts from Radio Shack? Uhh, why didn't you process dirt to make the radio? I thought the idea was to manufacture everything on Mars from Mars regolith and you're describing assembling a radio on the Earth from store bought parts. Please detail everything that is needed to make a radio on Mars from regolith and describe how many launches that it will take. Don't forget the components for the habitat this time.

You got dirt? Can you eat the dirt? No you can't. Marvel at my intellect. It's a wonder we ever made it into space with so many brilliant scientist-philosophers, such as yourself, telling us how impossible that was.

Dook wrote:

You made your own steel and tile table? So you processed iron ore and added carbon to make it into steel and then poured the liquid steel into a mold to cool and then molded the steel into the table? Or did you buy the steel already made and just cut it?

Good grief. You're response makes it seem as if some magic needs to happen before we can re-create a miniature version of what we have here on Earth.

Dook wrote:

You would move to Mars if you could even if it meant dying? I'm sure you would. For most of human history people have done some crazy things. Now, we can take our time, there's no hurry.

No wonder humanity hasn't travelled beyond LEO in the past four decades. If it's not right in front of your face, at this very second, it's not possible and could never happen.

Dook wrote:

How are you going to get cigarettes on Mars? Do you actually think that other people are going to put up with you smoking inside the hab? Do you think a colony is going to waste crop production space to grow tobacco for you? Oh, do you think you would have your own hab/home on Mars?

I'm not going to smoke there, genius, and since I never had my own "home" in the Navy I suppose I won't have my own home on Mars, either. Some things are more important to me than my personal comfort.

Dook wrote:

People on Mars does not ensure the survival of humanity. You would be a burden to the rest of us.

That's your unproven opinion since it's never been tried.

Dook wrote:

What do I think that people going to Mars are running away from something? Well, on the Earth we have many food choices, many entertainment choices, many choices of where we should live, many choices of friends, many choices for work, why leave that for less choices? The only way someone does that is someone who feels like they are stuck and can't get out of their situation.

If you think you need to be entertained and have a lot of other trivial decisions to make, then stay on Earth. I learned to make friends with the people I was with, no matter how different they were from me.

I have more now than I ever dreamed I would have, but I obviously can't take any of it with me when I die. I would prefer to use whatever time I have left after I retire to build something of lasting utility for the next generation. After my children have grown up, I'd leave everything I've worked for behind to push as hard as I can towards a goal I consider worthwhile and ultimately necessary for our survival. You may or may not ever understand that.

I do think that if more people spent more time trying to resolve problems, rather than throwing their hands up in the air and declaring those problems impossible to overcome, that we'd likely achieve the goal of space colonization much faster.

Void · 2016-10-05 20:02:39

Dook,

It is a great honor. I didn't think I could get under your skin. I thought you would just bypass my post.

No, at this stage in my life, going to Mars would be wrong, as I am too old. Yeah they might eat me, but it would be tough meat! And you pointed out that they would make my drool cup out of dirt. I want brass at least.

I see the conversation is on-going, so I am going to cut out without further reply for now.

I like you. Just don't want you to snuff out hope. OK? Reality fine. But we don't have to beat the baby to death in the crib because doesn't have a job yet.

Last edited by Void (2016-10-05 20:04:58)

kbd512 · 2016-10-05 20:33:31

Dook wrote:

Instead of trying to get together the materials to make a ceramic bowl from scratch on Mars we'll send a box of plastic bowls that will last 100 years at least and weigh a couple of pounds.

Why send something as simple as a bowl if you can just as easily make it there?

You can't easily make a nuclear reactor on Mars, but a reactor scaled to the size needed for a startup colony is not an immovable building-sized object or anything close to it.

Dook wrote:

I never said don't try, well, the 100 person rocket idea is pure stupidity and the 1 million people on Mars in 50 years is just absolutely wrong.

Why is a rocket that can deliver a serious payload to the surface of Mars something we couldn't use for exploration as well?

Dook wrote:

I think we should plan to go to Mars using the Mars Direct plan. Before that we should have a Mars spacecraft that tests the MOXIE unit and we should have a sample return mission. I don't really care about timelines.

Mars Direct is exactly what NASA is doing without calling it by that name. They don't have a plan to go to Mars. They want to go back to the moon to play with space rocks.

If you don't really care about timelines, why have you spent so much time explaining why Mr. Musk's timeline is impossible?

Dook wrote:

The works of our ancestors to be spent down? I got news for you, humanity is not on it's last legs. So you want to go to Mars because you want to hide from the rest of humanity. What makes you think that the people who go with you to Mars won't tie you up and cut off your extremities and cook them for food when the heat shield fails on the Mars colony food shipment spacecraft and it burns up on entry? KBD512 would be okay with it, to him that's contributing to humanity.

If the heat shield fails on the Mars colony food shipment, then we may very well die there. However, it would probably be prudent to split food shipments up into two or more landings and to start growing food on Mars as soon as we get there.

What's your idea of contributing to humanity, apart from telling everyone else why something is impossible?

Dook · 2016-10-05 20:50:24

kbd512 wrote:

Dook wrote:
So we can make ceramic things on Mars? And all you think that all you need is ground regolith, water, and an electric kiln. So you're going to do this outside on Mars, holding your breath the whole time? Where does the electricity for the kiln come from? Where did you get the water from and how do you keep it from freezing outside on Mars?
I'm an atheist, but Jesus H. We're not reinventing the wheel. We're transporting particularly useful pieces of technology that all of humanity has worked to develop to another planet merely to start the process of spreading human life throughout our own solar system.
Dook wrote:
You all still have the cart, way, way, way before the horse.
Define the horse, please.
Dook wrote:
Once we get an idea of how many launches it's going to take to set up the FIRST colony, THEN we can get an idea of how many launches it's going to take to expand it.
If we had that BFR that SpaceX is working on, it probably wouldn't take that many. Is two launches too many to be to your liking?
Dook wrote:
Some of you have beautiful water color paintings of what the colony will look like in 500 years but you somehow think that it's only going to take 50 years.
The first man had been sent into space when Kennedy announced that we'd put a man on the moon within ten years. Less than ten years later, men were hopping around on the moon like rabbits and anybody who had access to a TV was watching them do it.
Dook wrote:
You were able to make an AM/FM radio with parts from Radio Shack? Uhh, why didn't you process dirt to make the radio? I thought the idea was to manufacture everything on Mars from Mars regolith and you're describing assembling a radio on the Earth from store bought parts. Please detail everything that is needed to make a radio on Mars from regolith and describe how many launches that it will take. Don't forget the components for the habitat this time.
You got dirt? Can you eat the dirt? No you can't. Marvel at my intellect. It's a wonder we ever made it into space with so many brilliant scientist-philosophers, such as yourself, telling us how impossible that was.
Dook wrote:
You made your own steel and tile table? So you processed iron ore and added carbon to make it into steel and then poured the liquid steel into a mold to cool and then molded the steel into the table? Or did you buy the steel already made and just cut it?
Good grief. You're response makes it seem as if some magic needs to happen before we can re-create a miniature version of what we have here on Earth.
Dook wrote:
You would move to Mars if you could even if it meant dying? I'm sure you would. For most of human history people have done some crazy things. Now, we can take our time, there's no hurry.
No wonder humanity hasn't travelled beyond LEO in the past four decades. If it's not right in front of your face, at this very second, it's not possible and could never happen.
Dook wrote:
How are you going to get cigarettes on Mars? Do you actually think that other people are going to put up with you smoking inside the hab? Do you think a colony is going to waste crop production space to grow tobacco for you? Oh, do you think you would have your own hab/home on Mars?
I'm not going to smoke there, genius, and since I never had my own "home" in the Navy I suppose I won't have my own home on Mars, either. Some things are more important to me than my personal comfort.
Dook wrote:
People on Mars does not ensure the survival of humanity. You would be a burden to the rest of us.
That's your unproven opinion since it's never been tried.
Dook wrote:
What do I think that people going to Mars are running away from something? Well, on the Earth we have many food choices, many entertainment choices, many choices of where we should live, many choices of friends, many choices for work, why leave that for less choices? The only way someone does that is someone who feels like they are stuck and can't get out of their situation.
If you think you need to be entertained and have a lot of other trivial decisions to make, then stay on Earth. I learned to make friends with the people I was with, no matter how different they were from me.
I have more now than I ever dreamed I would have, but I obviously can't take any of it with me when I die. I would prefer to use whatever time I have left after I retire to build something of lasting utility for the next generation. After my children have grown up, I'd leave everything I've worked for behind to push as hard as I can towards a goal I consider worthwhile and ultimately necessary for our survival. You may or may not ever understand that.
I do think that if more people spent more time trying to resolve problems, rather than throwing their hands up in the air and declaring those problems impossible to overcome, that we'd likely achieve the goal of space colonization much faster.

We're transporting useful pieces of technology to use on Mars? Okay, then we agree. Louis is the one who thinks that everything should be made from scratch on Mars.

I have no problem with spreading life to Mars. We can argue about spreading life throughout the solar system in a different thread. My point is that we should do it smartly, not recklessly. Believing that we can put 1 million people on Mars in 50 years is reckless. Simple math shows that it's impossible.

A horse is a solid-hoofed plant-eating domesticated mammal with a flowing mane and tail, used for riding, racing, and to carry and pull loads.

That BFR that SpaceX is working on is called the Heavy Falcon. It will put 29 tons on Mars. Using Zubrin's estimates for equipment needed to go to Mars:
Hab structure 5 tons
Life support 3 tons
Consumables 7 tons
Electric power 1 ton
Reaction control system .5 ton
Communications system .2 ton
Lab equipment .5 ton
Crew of four .4 ton
EVA suits .4 ton
Furniture 1 ton
Open rovers (2) .8 ton
Pressurized rover 1.4 ton
Field science equipment .5 ton
Spares 3.5 tons

That's a total of 25.2 tons so you have almost 4 tons of weight but you can only bring more stuff if it fits in the cowling, which, it probably won't.

Now, you said it would take about two launches to build your colony so we have a second launch of 29 tons. What are you going to bring? Remember, the first launch only has enough food and water for about 500 days on Mars.

You see, Zubrin planned on using a BFR for Mars Direct. SpaceX's rocket is only slightly larger so it can put a little bit more on Mars. Still, it's not even close to being enough to build your colony as fast as you thought.

Kennedy said we could put a man on the moon in 10 years and we did it? Elon Musk is not John F. Kennedy.

I can eat dirt? No thanks, T-bones whenever I want, retired at 40, house and land paid for. Had a salmon steak for dinner tonight. I'll leave the dirt for those who don't know better.

I didn't say that getting to Mars was impossible, but getting 1 million people to Mars in 50 years is, but since I'm supposed to marvel at your intellect please give the details on how many launches we'll need to reach that goal.

No magic needed to recreate Earth on Mars but it will take time, something some of you don't seem to have.

As I've said, I'm all for Mars Direct.

You're not going to smoke in the Mars hab? Since when do smokers care about others having the right to breathe clean air?

People on Mars being a burden is unproven? There's no infrastructure there now so it kind of is proven. You do remember that your BFR is only going to deliver enough food and water for 500 days, so it will need constant resupply missions, right? And if one of those resupply rockets fails. You're dead.

Do I think I need to be entertained? Yes.

Do I need to make trivial decisions on the Earth? Yes, and non-trivial, well, at least, to me they're not trivial. Are you under the impression that you will be in charge on Mars?

You want to build something for humanity? Good, the Mars colony thing probably isn't going to happen in your lifetime but there are many good charities that you can dedicate your time and money to. I recommend St. Jude's Children's Hospital but give to whoever floats your boat.

I may not understand your desire to go to Mars? No, but I don't understand the dumb kid who went into the "Wild" of Alaska and slept in a bus until he starved to death either.

If everyone helped we'd likely achieve the goal of space colonization much faster? Space is not a colonization place. Can we build giant space station in orbit around the Earth? Sure, one day we will. Ain't going to be in 50 years though.

Last edited by Dook (2016-10-05 20:53:45)

Dook · 2016-10-05 21:20:51

kbd512 wrote:

Dook wrote:
Instead of trying to get together the materials to make a ceramic bowl from scratch on Mars we'll send a box of plastic bowls that will last 100 years at least and weigh a couple of pounds.
Why send something as simple as a bowl if you can just as easily make it there?
You can't easily make a nuclear reactor on Mars, but a reactor scaled to the size needed for a startup colony is not an immovable building-sized object or anything close to it.
Dook wrote:
I never said don't try, well, the 100 person rocket idea is pure stupidity and the 1 million people on Mars in 50 years is just absolutely wrong.
Why is a rocket that can deliver a serious payload to the surface of Mars something we couldn't use for exploration as well?
Dook wrote:
I think we should plan to go to Mars using the Mars Direct plan. Before that we should have a Mars spacecraft that tests the MOXIE unit and we should have a sample return mission. I don't really care about timelines.
Mars Direct is exactly what NASA is doing without calling it by that name. They don't have a plan to go to Mars. They want to go back to the moon to play with space rocks.
If you don't really care about timelines, why have you spent so much time explaining why Mr. Musk's timeline is impossible?
Dook wrote:
The works of our ancestors to be spent down? I got news for you, humanity is not on it's last legs. So you want to go to Mars because you want to hide from the rest of humanity. What makes you think that the people who go with you to Mars won't tie you up and cut off your extremities and cook them for food when the heat shield fails on the Mars colony food shipment spacecraft and it burns up on entry? KBD512 would be okay with it, to him that's contributing to humanity.
If the heat shield fails on the Mars colony food shipment, then we may very well die there. However, it would probably be prudent to split food shipments up into two or more landings and to start growing food on Mars as soon as we get there.
What's your idea of contributing to humanity, apart from telling everyone else why something is impossible?

Why send plastic bowls to Mars when we can just make one easily? Because you can't make one easily on Mars. You said you need a kiln, and you have to use electricity, and you have to use water, and you didn't mention the habitat needed to do all of this in. Are you going to do this in the Mars Hab, the rocket than landed you there on Mars? Or, are you going to build a separate Hab and then make bowls in it?

Can't easily make a nuclear reactor on Mars? I didn't say you could, in fact, I was arguing that something as simple as a bowl is going to be too complex to manufacture on Mars for a very long time.

A reactor scaled to the size needed for a startup colony is not an immovable sized object? I didn't say it was. You might want to look up RTG reactors on Wiki and then you will get an idea of their size and power output. I think the biggest one is around 1,000 lbs.

I didn't say that a rocket that can put a payload on Mars can't be used for exploration. It can put four people on Mars with enough supplies to last them about 500 days. Sending 100 people to Mars anytime soon is not exploration, it's a death sentence.

I know NASA is planning on going back to the moon. To me it's a waste of time but I'm not in charge of what they do. As I said, I want Mars Direct.

When I said I don't care about timelines I meant I'm not in a hurry to risk peoples lives to make money doing something completely unnecessary like Elon Musk.

It would be prudent to split food shipments up into two or more landings? Uhh, you're missing the point, it's not going to take one or two or three or four food shipments, it's going to take constant resupply of food and water.

It would also be prudent to start growing food right away? Where are you going to grow it? Please give details on the size and material of the greenhouse and how you're going to keep the fruit and vegetables from freezing at night? Also, if you could explain how much water it's going to take to grow the plants and where you are going to get the water from? Also, most plants don't produce complete protein so what is your protein source going to be?

What's my idea of contributing to humanity? I do what I do. If that's not enough for some people, tough.

Last edited by Dook (2016-10-05 21:21:16)

kbd512 · 2016-10-05 23:08:10

Dook wrote:

We're transporting useful pieces of technology to use on Mars? Okay, then we agree. Louis is the one who thinks that everything should be made from scratch on Mars.

I never stated nor even implied that absolutely everything the colonists need should be made on Mars. If it costs little or nothing to make it on Mars and is one less thing that you have to bring with you, why not?

If you have a nuclear reactor on Mars, you can probably use a tiny fraction of the reactor's output that's required to dry out some Martian regolith, store the water from the regolith, grind the regolith into powder, and then make something so simple that a class full of small children who were barely literate were able to make without any special instruction.

Dook wrote:

I have no problem with spreading life to Mars. We can argue about spreading life throughout the solar system in a different thread. My point is that we should do it smartly, not recklessly. Believing that we can put 1 million people on Mars in 50 years is reckless. Simple math shows that it's impossible.

Is anything that you can't conceive of because it's not sitting right in front of you reckless?

I'll leave the simple math to the simple-minded.

Dook wrote:

A horse is a solid-hoofed plant-eating domesticated mammal with a flowing mane and tail, used for riding, racing, and to carry and pull loads.

That's cute.

Dook wrote:

That BFR that SpaceX is working on is called the Heavy Falcon. It will put 29 tons on Mars. Using Zubrin's estimates for equipment needed to go to Mars:
Hab structure 5 tons
Life support 3 tons
Consumables 7 tons
Electric power 1 ton
Reaction control system .5 ton
Communications system .2 ton
Lab equipment .5 ton
Crew of four .4 ton
EVA suits .4 ton
Furniture 1 ton
Open rovers (2) .8 ton
Pressurized rover 1.4 ton
Field science equipment .5 ton
Spares 3.5 tons
That's a total of 25.2 tons so you have almost 4 tons of weight but you can only bring more stuff if it fits in the cowling, which, it probably won't.

I'll assume you're actually talking about multiple FH launches.

Dook wrote:

Now, you said it would take about two launches to build your colony so we have a second launch of 29 tons. What are you going to bring? Remember, the first launch only has enough food and water for about 500 days on Mars.

I was talking about the rocket SpaceX refers to as the BFR or ITS. The Falcon Heavy is sufficient for exploration missions. This thread is not about exploration, it's about colonization.

Dook wrote:

You see, Zubrin planned on using a BFR for Mars Direct. SpaceX's rocket is only slightly larger so it can put a little bit more on Mars. Still, it's not even close to being enough to build your colony as fast as you thought.

Dr. Zubrin's notion of what a BFR is and Mr. Musk's clearly varies quite a bit. That said, Zubrin's BFR would not deliver 350t to LEO or anything close to it. A Saturn V with F1A and J2X engines might deliver 150t to LEO.

Dook wrote:

Kennedy said we could put a man on the moon in 10 years and we did it? Elon Musk is not John F. Kennedy.

You're right. Mr. Musk actually owns a company that builds rockets.

Dook wrote:

I can eat dirt? No thanks, T-bones whenever I want, retired at 40, house and land paid for. Had a salmon steak for dinner tonight. I'll leave the dirt for those who don't know better.

Good for you.

Dook wrote:

I didn't say that getting to Mars was impossible, but getting 1 million people to Mars in 50 years is, but since I'm supposed to marvel at your intellect please give the details on how many launches we'll need to reach that goal.

I never commented on how many launches were required to get 1M people to Mars. I stated that I don't think his plan is realistic if we're forced to use chemical propulsion technology. I'm fairly certain that he already knows that, too. I laid out a plan for designing the infrastructure for a startup colony in another thread. We'd clearly have to use local resources to sustain 1M colonists. The number of launches required is highly dependent on the in-space propulsion technology used. NTR's or FDR's substantially increase the delivered tonnage and FDR's would dramatically decrease travel time.

Dook wrote:

No magic needed to recreate Earth on Mars but it will take time, something some of you don't seem to have.

Generally speaking, nothing ventured equates to nothing gained.

Dook wrote:

As I've said, I'm all for Mars Direct.

Great! Go start a Dook Direct thread so we can rehash Mars Direct all over again.

Dook wrote:

You're not going to smoke in the Mars hab? Since when do smokers care about others having the right to breathe clean air?

Have you ever used anything that required an internal combustion engine? If you have, then spare me the self-righteous, condescending blather about smokers not caring about other people.

Dook wrote:

People on Mars being a burden is unproven? There's no infrastructure there now so it kind of is proven. You do remember that your BFR is only going to deliver enough food and water for 500 days, so it will need constant resupply missions, right? And if one of those resupply rockets fails. You're dead.

Falcon Heavy is not the BFR / ITS. BFR / ITS would land substantially more than 29t on Mars if someone decided to build it. Obviously Mars requires some infrastructure to support human life. Should we at least try to determine how difficult it is to grow food and make potable water on Mars before we throw out any supposition about resupply requirements?

Dook wrote:

Do I think I need to be entertained? Yes.

Ok.

Dook wrote:

Do I need to make trivial decisions on the Earth? Yes, and non-trivial, well, at least, to me they're not trivial. Are you under the impression that you will be in charge on Mars?

Do you think I only followed the orders I wanted to follow in six years as an enlisted man in the Navy? You're one of those "I'm the boss of me" types, aren't you?

Dook wrote:

You want to build something for humanity? Good, the Mars colony thing probably isn't going to happen in your lifetime but there are many good charities that you can dedicate your time and money to. I recommend St. Jude's Children's Hospital but give to whoever floats your boat.

You decide how you want to spend your money and I'll decide how I want to spend my money.

Dook wrote:

I may not understand your desire to go to Mars? No, but I don't understand the dumb kid who went into the "Wild" of Alaska and slept in a bus until he starved to death either.

In your thought process, is there a difference between jumping out of an airplane with or without a parachute? Is a game of tiddlywinks at the limit of your risk tolerance? If I had your level of fear and negativity, I can't imagine life being worth living.

Dook wrote:

If everyone helped we'd likely achieve the goal of space colonization much faster? Space is not a colonization place. Can we build giant space station in orbit around the Earth? Sure, one day we will. Ain't going to be in 50 years though.

You've stated your opinion. It hasn't changed and neither has mine.

Dook · 2016-10-06 01:37:37

kbd512 wrote:

Dook wrote:
We're transporting useful pieces of technology to use on Mars? Okay, then we agree. Louis is the one who thinks that everything should be made from scratch on Mars.
I never stated nor even implied that absolutely everything the colonists need should be made on Mars. If it costs little or nothing to make it on Mars and is one less thing that you have to bring with you, why not?
If you have a nuclear reactor on Mars, you can probably use a tiny fraction of the reactor's output that's required to dry out some Martian regolith, store the water from the regolith, grind the regolith into powder, and then make something so simple that a class full of small children who were barely literate were able to make without any special instruction.
Dook wrote:
I have no problem with spreading life to Mars. We can argue about spreading life throughout the solar system in a different thread. My point is that we should do it smartly, not recklessly. Believing that we can put 1 million people on Mars in 50 years is reckless. Simple math shows that it's impossible.
Is anything that you can't conceive of because it's not sitting right in front of you reckless?
I'll leave the simple math to the simple-minded.
Dook wrote:
A horse is a solid-hoofed plant-eating domesticated mammal with a flowing mane and tail, used for riding, racing, and to carry and pull loads.
That's cute.
Dook wrote:
That BFR that SpaceX is working on is called the Heavy Falcon. It will put 29 tons on Mars. Using Zubrin's estimates for equipment needed to go to Mars:
Hab structure 5 tons
Life support 3 tons
Consumables 7 tons
Electric power 1 ton
Reaction control system .5 ton
Communications system .2 ton
Lab equipment .5 ton
Crew of four .4 ton
EVA suits .4 ton
Furniture 1 ton
Open rovers (2) .8 ton
Pressurized rover 1.4 ton
Field science equipment .5 ton
Spares 3.5 tons
That's a total of 25.2 tons so you have almost 4 tons of weight but you can only bring more stuff if it fits in the cowling, which, it probably won't.
I'll assume you're actually talking about multiple FH launches.
Dook wrote:
Now, you said it would take about two launches to build your colony so we have a second launch of 29 tons. What are you going to bring? Remember, the first launch only has enough food and water for about 500 days on Mars.
I was talking about the rocket SpaceX refers to as the BFR or ITS. The Falcon Heavy is sufficient for exploration missions. This thread is not about exploration, it's about colonization.
Dook wrote:
You see, Zubrin planned on using a BFR for Mars Direct. SpaceX's rocket is only slightly larger so it can put a little bit more on Mars. Still, it's not even close to being enough to build your colony as fast as you thought.
Dr. Zubrin's notion of what a BFR is and Mr. Musk's clearly varies quite a bit. That said, Zubrin's BFR would not deliver 350t to LEO or anything close to it. A Saturn V with F1A and J2X engines might deliver 150t to LEO.
Dook wrote:
Kennedy said we could put a man on the moon in 10 years and we did it? Elon Musk is not John F. Kennedy.
You're right. Mr. Musk actually owns a company that builds rockets.
Dook wrote:
I can eat dirt? No thanks, T-bones whenever I want, retired at 40, house and land paid for. Had a salmon steak for dinner tonight. I'll leave the dirt for those who don't know better.
Good for you.
Dook wrote:
I didn't say that getting to Mars was impossible, but getting 1 million people to Mars in 50 years is, but since I'm supposed to marvel at your intellect please give the details on how many launches we'll need to reach that goal.
I never commented on how many launches were required to get 1M people to Mars. I stated that I don't think his plan is realistic if we're forced to use chemical propulsion technology. I'm fairly certain that he already knows that, too. I laid out a plan for designing the infrastructure for a startup colony in another thread. We'd clearly have to use local resources to sustain 1M colonists. The number of launches required is highly dependent on the in-space propulsion technology used. NTR's or FDR's substantially increase the delivered tonnage and FDR's would dramatically decrease travel time.
Dook wrote:
No magic needed to recreate Earth on Mars but it will take time, something some of you don't seem to have.
Generally speaking, nothing ventured equates to nothing gained.
Dook wrote:
As I've said, I'm all for Mars Direct.
Great! Go start a Dook Direct thread so we can rehash Mars Direct all over again.
Dook wrote:
You're not going to smoke in the Mars hab? Since when do smokers care about others having the right to breathe clean air?
Have you ever used anything that required an internal combustion engine? If you have, then spare me the self-righteous, condescending blather about smokers not caring about other people.
Dook wrote:
People on Mars being a burden is unproven? There's no infrastructure there now so it kind of is proven. You do remember that your BFR is only going to deliver enough food and water for 500 days, so it will need constant resupply missions, right? And if one of those resupply rockets fails. You're dead.
Falcon Heavy is not the BFR / ITS. BFR / ITS would land substantially more than 29t on Mars if someone decided to build it. Obviously Mars requires some infrastructure to support human life. Should we at least try to determine how difficult it is to grow food and make potable water on Mars before we throw out any supposition about resupply requirements?
Dook wrote:
Do I think I need to be entertained? Yes.
Ok.
Dook wrote:
Do I need to make trivial decisions on the Earth? Yes, and non-trivial, well, at least, to me they're not trivial. Are you under the impression that you will be in charge on Mars?
Do you think I only followed the orders I wanted to follow in six years as an enlisted man in the Navy? You're one of those "I'm the boss of me" types, aren't you?
Dook wrote:
You want to build something for humanity? Good, the Mars colony thing probably isn't going to happen in your lifetime but there are many good charities that you can dedicate your time and money to. I recommend St. Jude's Children's Hospital but give to whoever floats your boat.
You decide how you want to spend your money and I'll decide how I want to spend my money.
Dook wrote:
I may not understand your desire to go to Mars? No, but I don't understand the dumb kid who went into the "Wild" of Alaska and slept in a bus until he starved to death either.
In your thought process, is there a difference between jumping out of an airplane with or without a parachute? Is a game of tiddlywinks at the limit of your risk tolerance? If I had your level of fear and negativity, I can't imagine life being worth living.
Dook wrote:
If everyone helped we'd likely achieve the goal of space colonization much faster? Space is not a colonization place. Can we build giant space station in orbit around the Earth? Sure, one day we will. Ain't going to be in 50 years though.
You've stated your opinion. It hasn't changed and neither has mine.

If it costs little, why not make it on Mars? Depends on what that little thing is, if the cost is some water, well, then it's not a "little" thing.

We could use the nuclear reactor on Mars to dry out some regolith to get water from it? Okay, not sure what type of nuclear reactor you are talking about. The nuclear reactor on Mars will be an RTG type, not the type that's used to produce electricity on the Earth. The RTG's produce radiation so they need to be moved away from your base, hopefully placed into a small crater, and everyone needs to stay away from it. So, you're not going to be able to use heat from your RTG reactor.

It sounds like you didn't look up the RTG reactors like I suggested so your confusing them with the nuclear reactor the navy uses on ships and subs. They ain't the same.

Can you use the electricity from your RTG to heat the Mars surface? Electric heating is inefficient and uses a lot of watts. A small 10" x 10" electric room heater uses 1,500 watts an hour. The largest RTG weighs about 1,000 lbs and puts out 600 watts so even it won't power your tiny electric heater.

Is anything I can't conceive of reckless? No. You? I seem to be conceiving a lot of details while you're conceiving insults. You know that means you've lost the argument, right? I can play that way too.

You'll leave the simple math to the simple minded? You have trouble carrying the "1" huh?

The weights I listed are for one launch of the heavy Falcon that can take 29 tons to Mars. The weights I listed are for necessary supplies for a crew of 4 for about 500 days on Mars. As I said, after these supplies you still have another 4 tons that you can carry on the first launch and one more launch, since you said it would take two missions to set up your colony. What are you going to put on your next launch?

You were talking about the Interplanetary Spaceship and not the Falcon? Ohh, the ITS, the one that is supposedly going into space, get refueled five times, then deliver almost a million pounds to Mars in one trip. Don't believe everything you hear.

You don't think that Elon Musk's plan for getting 1 million people to Mars in 50 years is realistic? Welcome to the real world.

Have I ever used an internal combustion engine? Not in a house, nor in a building, not on a submarine where the air filters don't remove all of it, not on an airplane where others are trapped and can't get away. I've never put a pregnant woman's nose up to an exhaust pipe but pregnant smokers don't use that same morality. My neighbors girlfriend smoked while pregnant and their daughter was born premature and had to spend the first month in the intensive care unit.

Should we try and grow food on Mars before trying to figure out resupply requirements? No, we absolutely should not. The second food/water resupply launch has to arrive at the middle of your food supply. The third food/water resupply should arrive just before your first would run out in case the second launch fails.

We already know how much food a person needs, about 5.5 lbs per person a day. We also know how much food plants make. It's simple math. How many fruit trees and vegetable plants do you think it will take to support 4 people year round? What is going to be the protein source? You want to do the carp fish in one tank that eat green algea grown in a second tank thing? What about growing grains? Did you figure out how to keep your plants from freezing at night in the greenhouse when the temperature gets down to -135 F?

If you had my level of fear and negativity you can't imagine life worth living? But you're the one who wants to throw it all away on Mars living in a confined space with little to no entertainment, and the same food day after day. You've just convinced yourself that it would be somehow "good" for humanity when it's not.

I am negative towards the ridiculous, very negative.

Musk actually owns a company that builds rockets? Yep, and JFK had an almost unlimited budget. What happens to Musk after a series of setbacks? How long can he spend his own money? What if he does get some colonists to Mars and then his rockets start failing and he loses other investors? Then NASA would have to start sending supplies to Mars constantly.

kbd512 · 2016-10-06 02:36:26

Dook wrote:

Why send plastic bowls to Mars when we can just make one easily? Because you can't make one easily on Mars. You said you need a kiln, and you have to use electricity, and you have to use water, and you didn't mention the habitat needed to do all of this in. Are you going to do this in the Mars Hab, the rocket than landed you there on Mars? Or, are you going to build a separate Hab and then make bowls in it?

Obviously you'd have to send several habitat modules to Mars if you're going to send the spaceship back to Earth. Is there some specific reason why we can't put a kiln in one of the habitat modules modules? If you obtain sulphur from Mars, you don't need a kiln of the type we commonly use on Earth, or water, and you can make the bowl in a vacuum. This has been tested here on Earth. You still need a grinder to grind the regolith, but I'm pretty sure you don't need a major manufacturing facility to grind regolith into powder and there seems to be an awful lot of it just sitting on the surface for anyone with a shovel to scoop up.

Dook wrote:

Can't easily make a nuclear reactor on Mars? I didn't say you could, in fact, I was arguing that something as simple as a bowl is going to be too complex to manufacture on Mars for a very long time.

Since testing has already proven that a bowl can be made in a vacuum using materials already identified on Mars with Martian regolith simulant, we're going to assume that actual testing is more valuable information than Dook's say-so.

Dook wrote:

A reactor scaled to the size needed for a startup colony is not an immovable sized object? I didn't say it was. You might want to look up RTG reactors on Wiki and then you will get an idea of their size and power output. I think the biggest one is around 1,000 lbs.

When I said nuclear reactor, I thought most people would infer "fission reactor". If that point was not clear, I want to land a CO2 cooled nuclear fission reactor on Mars. A CO2 cooled 100kWe reactor core might weigh as little as 1t, although the weight with shielding will be substantially more than that (5t to 7t), but I think a 500kWe or 1MWe reactor is probably more useful for a startup colony.

A 50-100 kWe Gas-cooled Reactor For Use On Mars

Dook wrote:

I didn't say that a rocket that can put a payload on Mars can't be used for exploration. It can put four people on Mars with enough supplies to last them about 500 days. Sending 100 people to Mars anytime soon is not exploration, it's a death sentence.

If we just send 100 people to Mars without any infrastructure delivered and ready to use before they arrive, they're as good as dead. At the risk of lending any credence to such a litany of straw man arguments, we agree here.

Dook wrote:

I know NASA is planning on going back to the moon. To me it's a waste of time but I'm not in charge of what they do. As I said, I want Mars Direct.

I do want to send exploration crews to the surface to find potential locations for colonies. I laid out an entire mobile surface exploration mission architecture for doing that in various other threads here.

Dook wrote:

When I said I don't care about timelines I meant I'm not in a hurry to risk peoples lives to make money doing something completely unnecessary like Elon Musk.

Simply exploring Mars is completely unnecessary and will, in fact, risk peoples' lives. And yet, you still want to send people there.

Dook wrote:

Uhh, you're missing the point, it's not going to take one or two or three or four food shipments, it's going to take constant resupply of food and water.

Potential resupply issues are precisely why ice mining and hydroponic farming should be the very first habitability experiments conducted there. NASA and other space agencies have already sent a good number of sophisticated robotic probes there. There's no reason for humans to even attempt to land there if there's no intent to live there.

Dook wrote:

It would also be prudent to start growing food right away?

Yes

Dook wrote:

Where are you going to grow it?

In a hydroponics module.

Omega Hydroponic Garden Gets Five Times As Much Food Per Watt

Dook wrote:

Please give details on the size and material of the greenhouse and how you're going to keep the fruit and vegetables from freezing at night?

5M diameter x 10M high, vertically emplaced in the Martian regolith. It will be powered by a CO2 cooled nuclear fission reactor connected to the tunnel boring machine that digs the vertical pits for these modules.

The greenhouse is made from the same materials as a Bigelow Aerospace inflatable module since that's what I want to use. The MMOD protection clearly isn't required since these modules will be buried in the ground on Mars and stored in cargo containers for transport to the surface.

Dook wrote:

Also, if you could explain how much water it's going to take to grow the plants and where you are going to get the water from?

We're going to get the water from ice mining and I stated my desire to send surface exploration missions ahead of the colony to find resources. If we have a fission reactor, we're not going to run out of power or heat.

Dook wrote:

Also, most plants don't produce complete protein so what is your protein source going to be?

Hmm...

8 Plant Foods that Contain Complete Proteins (For Vegans)

Dook wrote:

What's my idea of contributing to humanity? I do what I do. If that's not enough for some people, tough.

Will you make an attempt to contribute something to this thread apart from straw man arguments about how difficult something is?

Will you start Dook Direct in its own thread so we can discuss your exploration plans there?

kbd512 · 2016-10-06 04:12:13

Dook wrote:

If it costs little, why not make it on Mars? Depends on what that little thing is, if the cost is some water, well, then it's not a "little" thing.

If a few cups of water to make some coffee mugs and bowls are all that stands between the colonists and death from lack of water, then there are far more serious problems to address. Thankfully, Mars isn't nearly that dry in many places.

Dook wrote:

We could use the nuclear reactor on Mars to dry out some regolith to get water from it? Okay, not sure what type of nuclear reactor you are talking about. The nuclear reactor on Mars will be an RTG type, not the type that's used to produce electricity on the Earth. The RTG's produce radiation so they need to be moved away from your base, hopefully placed into a small crater, and everyone needs to stay away from it. So, you're not going to be able to use heat from your RTG reactor.

From your commentary, it's pretty clear that you have no basic working knowledge of radiation, so I see no reason to discuss this topic any further with you except to correct your erroneous statements. A fission reactor would need augmented core shielding unless you just want to transport a lot of heavy shielding material to Mars that the planet's surface could just as easily provide. The RTG would not require any more shielding than the casing already provides.

Dook wrote:

It sounds like you didn't look up the RTG reactors like I suggested so your confusing them with the nuclear reactor the navy uses on ships and subs. They ain't the same.

It sounds like you're stuck on this RTG idea.

Dook wrote:

Can you use the electricity from your RTG to heat the Mars surface? Electric heating is inefficient and uses a lot of watts. A small 10" x 10" electric room heater uses 1,500 watts an hour. The largest RTG weighs about 1,000 lbs and puts out 600 watts so even it won't power your tiny electric heater.

I never proposed sending any RTG's to Mars. The RTG idea is what you think I meant when I said "reactor", even though I meant fission reactor. You've already proven that you know little to nothing about radiation exposure or shielding requirements for protecting people in close proximity to RTG's, so I'm done arguing this point with you until you go out educate yourself a little bit more on this topic.

Dook wrote:

Is anything I can't conceive of reckless? No. You? I seem to be conceiving a lot of details while you're conceiving insults. You know that means you've lost the argument, right? I can play that way too.

Apart from surface exploration before colonization, you haven't made any sensible arguments. You've jumped to plenty of conclusions and made a lot of suppositions about the relative ease or difficulty of doing things. I also seriously doubt that you've thought through some of the things you've proposed. I read your long range rover design proposal. You wanted to put a bunch of heavy AGM batteries that produce hydrogen inside a pressure vessel with a 100% oxygen atmosphere. That made about as much sense as some of the arguments you've made about why a colony can't be established.

Dook wrote:

You'll leave the simple math to the simple minded? You have trouble carrying the "1" huh?

Dook wrote:

The weights I listed are for one launch of the heavy Falcon that can take 29 tons to Mars. The weights I listed are for necessary supplies for a crew of 4 for about 500 days on Mars. As I said, after these supplies you still have another 4 tons that you can carry on the first launch and one more launch, since you said it would take two missions to set up your colony. What are you going to put on your next launch?

Since Mr. Musk didn't propose using Falcon Heavy to create a colony, I would've thought it rather obvious that I wasn't talking about using Falcon Heavy for that purpose.

Dook wrote:

You were talking about the Interplanetary Spaceship and not the Falcon? Ohh, the ITS, the one that is supposedly going into space, get refueled five times, then deliver almost a million pounds to Mars in one trip. Don't believe everything you hear.

Mr. Musk has built one of the cryogen tanks for his rocket and hot fired an engine. You and I have rearranged some electrons. However, we're to believe that some anonymous person posting on the internet is more credible than he is.

Dook wrote:

You don't think that Elon Musk's plan for getting 1 million people to Mars in 50 years is realistic? Welcome to the real world.

I said I don't think the plan is realistic using chemical propulsion. Fifty years ago, no one had set foot on the moon.

Dook wrote:

Have I ever used an internal combustion engine? Not in a house, nor in a building, not on a submarine where the air filters don't remove all of it, not on an airplane where others are trapped and can't get away. I've never put a pregnant woman's nose up to an exhaust pipe but pregnant smokers don't use that same morality. My neighbors girlfriend smoked while pregnant and their daughter was born premature and had to spend the first month in the intensive care unit.

I take it you've used internal combustion engines, then? Whatever your girlfriend's cousin's dog did has no bearing on what I do.

Dook wrote:

Should we try and grow food on Mars before trying to figure out resupply requirements? No, we absolutely should not. The second food/water resupply launch has to arrive at the middle of your food supply. The third food/water resupply should arrive just before your first would run out in case the second launch fails.

I'm pretty sure I didn't suggest simply dropping off 100 people on Mars without ever providing resupply missions. In fact, I clearly intimated that far fewer than 100 people would be delivered by the first ships. The first few colonists are going to require resupply as the required infrastructure is built to establish the colony.

Dook wrote:

We already know how much food a person needs, about 5.5 lbs per person a day. We also know how much food plants make. It's simple math. How many fruit trees and vegetable plants do you think it will take to support 4 people year round? What is going to be the protein source? You want to do the carp fish in one tank that eat green algea grown in a second tank thing? What about growing grains? Did you figure out how to keep your plants from freezing at night in the greenhouse when the temperature gets down to -135 F?

I think dropping off 100 people on Mars without any infrastructure or initial resupply is a virtual requirement for any of the silly arguments you've made to have any validity. If we do that, then the colonists will almost certainly die. That's the only way your arguments work.

Dook wrote:

If you had my level of fear and negativity you can't imagine life worth living? But you're the one who wants to throw it all away on Mars living in a confined space with little to no entertainment, and the same food day after day. You've just convinced yourself that it would be somehow "good" for humanity when it's not.

You can't understand people who are not like you or don't want the same things you want and that's pretty easy for me to understand.

Dook wrote:

I am negative towards the ridiculous, very negative.

In that case, I hope you understand some of the negative responses you've received from me towards some of the ridiculous arguments you've made.

Dook wrote:

Musk actually owns a company that builds rockets? Yep, and JFK had an almost unlimited budget. What happens to Musk after a series of setbacks? How long can he spend his own money? What if he does get some colonists to Mars and then his rockets start failing and he loses other investors? Then NASA would have to start sending supplies to Mars constantly.

True. Mr. Musk could run into problems. SpaceX is presently a privately held company, though, so I doubt his non-existent investors will give him much trouble. His customer may or may not have a problem with his Mars colonization ambitions.

louis · 2016-10-06 04:41:05

For anyone who may be persuaded by Dook's evidence-free pessimism - take a look at this video about the uses of melted basalt:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WARrlVtmT4Q

There is no reason why basalt could not be melted on Mars using photovoltaic or nuclear energy and used to produce a range of useful products including construction materials, flooring, shelving, furniture, kitchen vessels and utensils. Casts could be drilled to high accuracy using CNC machines. In fact probably virtually the whole process could be mechanised and automated, with the colonists just needing to find the right quality of basalt and deploy the casts.

Basalt fibres can also be used to create a wide range of products - including very strong rebar:

http://basalt-rebar.com/

Dook is being self-limiting in envisioning what can be done on Mars.

As always we have to remember the small number of early colonists will be the beneficiaries of a billion dollar investment - they won't be going with spades and shovels (or at least, not just spade and shovels)...they will be going with state of the art machines allowing them to replicate a wide range of industrial processes found on Earth.

Antius · 2016-10-06 05:27:21

Actually, I think Dook's pessimism may be well founded. On the other hand, Elon Musk's prediction of 1million people on Mars within a century, could turn out to be conservative. It all depends upon:

1. Will Musk get the support he needs to mount large-scale expeditions to the planet from government(s) and private industry? We are talking at least a few $10's billions to develop the delivery system and ancillary equipment and mount the first mission;
2. Will he find something on Mars that can be exported to Earth very profitably? I.e. rare metals?

If the answer to both is 'yes' then 1million people on Mars is not unrealistic, as industry will sponsor people to go in order to build the necessary labour force. The technological problems with living there and manufacturing, will be overcome. If the answer to 1 is yes, but 2 is no, then we may see a relatively small research base established on Mars in our lifetimes. If the answer to both is 'no', then expect Musk to remain a big player in the satellite launch market, but never make it to Mars.

Antius · 2016-10-06 05:37:23

louis wrote:

For anyone who may be persuaded by Dook's evidence-free pessimism - take a look at this video about the uses of melted basalt:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WARrlVtmT4Q
There is no reason why basalt could not be melted on Mars using photovoltaic or nuclear energy and used to produce a range of useful products including construction materials, flooring, shelving, furniture, kitchen vessels and utensils. Casts could be drilled to high accuracy using CNC machines. In fact probably virtually the whole process could be mechanised and automated, with the colonists just needing to find the right quality of basalt and deploy the casts.
Basalt fibres can also be used to create a wide range of products - including very strong rebar:
http://basalt-rebar.com/
Dook is being self-limiting in envisioning what can be done on Mars.
As always we have to remember the small number of early colonists will be the beneficiaries of a billion dollar investment - they won't be going with spades and shovels (or at least, not just spade and shovels)...they will be going with state of the art machines allowing them to replicate a wide range of industrial processes found on Earth.

For furniture, flooring, shelving, kitchens, etc. all of these things can be manufactured from unfired moulded clay. Research cob houses, adobe houses and traditional African homes. Upper flooring can be accomplished using tumbril vaulting - basically several layers of tiles glued together to form a laminated load supporting floor.

Plain carbon steel can be produced by passing hot CO through iron rich soils and extracting the reduced iron with a magnetic. Then heat it in an electric furnace to remove further impurities. That will make 99% of all metal products you need on Mars, even conductors if you are prepared to use low voltage and transfer power over short distances.

Learning to use Martian resources will not be easy and life will be hard for the first generation. But the solutions are hardly beyond the wit of man.

Last edited by Antius (2016-10-06 05:38:16)

louis · 2016-10-06 06:08:54

Well as to what actually happens, that is in turn dependent on willpower. NASA has shown no will to get to Mars. Only Musk has.

I think the one million people in 50 years scenario is unrealistic for the reasons I have already stated - principally the difficult of finding the right sort of colonist (right skills, physical fitness, age range and personality type) prepared to give up all ties with Earth and move to Mars, without the prospect of starting a family. There probably aren't even a 1000 people who come close to fitting that bill on the whole of the planet.

But there is no reason why a permanent colony of up to a 1000 could not be established and sustained using something like Red Dragon technology.

Antius wrote:

Actually, I think Dook's pessimism may be well founded. On the other hand, Elon Musk's prediction of 1million people on Mars within a century, could turn out to be conservative. It all depends upon:
1. Will Musk get the support he needs to mount large-scale expeditions to the planet from government(s) and private industry? We are talking at least a few $10's billions to develop the delivery system and ancillary equipment and mount the first mission;
2. Will he find something on Mars that can be exported to Earth very profitably? I.e. rare metals?
If the answer to both is 'yes' then 1million people on Mars is not unrealistic, as industry will sponsor people to go in order to build the necessary labour force. The technological problems with living there and manufacturing, will be overcome. If the answer to 1 is yes, but 2 is no, then we may see a relatively small research base established on Mars in our lifetimes. If the answer to both is 'no', then expect Musk to remain a big player in the satellite launch market, but never make it to Mars.

Last edited by louis (2016-10-06 06:18:30)

louis · 2016-10-06 06:17:48

I wasn't suggesting that basalt was the only material: we can easily make glass, iron, and steel, and grow bamboo.

There may be issues over the durability of adobe type houses under the extreme temperature range on Mars - I've no idea.

I liked the look of the basalt finished product - very accurate lines for tiling and other construction uses etc.

I am not sure how "hard" life will be on Mars. It will be challenging. But the colonists will have the benefit of billion dollar investment - computers, automated methane production, robot mining vehicles, pressurised rovers, 3D printers, CNC machines, lasers, microwave beams, diggers etc.

I think a lot of their work will be assembly, lab testing (e.g. to assess purity of ores) and then operational observation.

Antius wrote:

louis wrote:
For anyone who may be persuaded by Dook's evidence-free pessimism - take a look at this video about the uses of melted basalt:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WARrlVtmT4Q
There is no reason why basalt could not be melted on Mars using photovoltaic or nuclear energy and used to produce a range of useful products including construction materials, flooring, shelving, furniture, kitchen vessels and utensils. Casts could be drilled to high accuracy using CNC machines. In fact probably virtually the whole process could be mechanised and automated, with the colonists just needing to find the right quality of basalt and deploy the casts.
Basalt fibres can also be used to create a wide range of products - including very strong rebar:
http://basalt-rebar.com/
Dook is being self-limiting in envisioning what can be done on Mars.
As always we have to remember the small number of early colonists will be the beneficiaries of a billion dollar investment - they won't be going with spades and shovels (or at least, not just spade and shovels)...they will be going with state of the art machines allowing them to replicate a wide range of industrial processes found on Earth.
For furniture, flooring, shelving, kitchens, etc. all of these things can be manufactured from unfired moulded clay. Research cob houses, adobe houses and traditional African homes. Upper flooring can be accomplished using tumbril vaulting - basically several layers of tiles glued together to form a laminated load supporting floor.
Plain carbon steel can be produced by passing hot CO through iron rich soils and extracting the reduced iron with a magnetic. Then heat it in an electric furnace to remove further impurities. That will make 99% of all metal products you need on Mars, even conductors if you are prepared to use low voltage and transfer power over short distances.
Learning to use Martian resources will not be easy and life will be hard for the first generation. But the solutions are hardly beyond the wit of man.

Dook · 2016-10-06 10:35:34

kbd512 wrote:

Dook wrote:
Why send plastic bowls to Mars when we can just make one easily? Because you can't make one easily on Mars. You said you need a kiln, and you have to use electricity, and you have to use water, and you didn't mention the habitat needed to do all of this in. Are you going to do this in the Mars Hab, the rocket than landed you there on Mars? Or, are you going to build a separate Hab and then make bowls in it?
Obviously you'd have to send several habitat modules to Mars if you're going to send the spaceship back to Earth. Is there some specific reason why we can't put a kiln in one of the habitat modules modules? If you obtain sulphur from Mars, you don't need a kiln of the type we commonly use on Earth, or water, and you can make the bowl in a vacuum. This has been tested here on Earth. You still need a grinder to grind the regolith, but I'm pretty sure you don't need a major manufacturing facility to grind regolith into powder and there seems to be an awful lot of it just sitting on the surface for anyone with a shovel to scoop up.
Dook wrote:
Can't easily make a nuclear reactor on Mars? I didn't say you could, in fact, I was arguing that something as simple as a bowl is going to be too complex to manufacture on Mars for a very long time.
Since testing has already proven that a bowl can be made in a vacuum using materials already identified on Mars with Martian regolith simulant, we're going to assume that actual testing is more valuable information than Dook's say-so.
Dook wrote:
A reactor scaled to the size needed for a startup colony is not an immovable sized object? I didn't say it was. You might want to look up RTG reactors on Wiki and then you will get an idea of their size and power output. I think the biggest one is around 1,000 lbs.
When I said nuclear reactor, I thought most people would infer "fission reactor". If that point was not clear, I want to land a CO2 cooled nuclear fission reactor on Mars. A CO2 cooled 100kWe reactor core might weigh as little as 1t, although the weight with shielding will be substantially more than that (5t to 7t), but I think a 500kWe or 1MWe reactor is probably more useful for a startup colony.
A 50-100 kWe Gas-cooled Reactor For Use On Mars
Dook wrote:
I didn't say that a rocket that can put a payload on Mars can't be used for exploration. It can put four people on Mars with enough supplies to last them about 500 days. Sending 100 people to Mars anytime soon is not exploration, it's a death sentence.
If we just send 100 people to Mars without any infrastructure delivered and ready to use before they arrive, they're as good as dead. At the risk of lending any credence to such a litany of straw man arguments, we agree here.
Dook wrote:
I know NASA is planning on going back to the moon. To me it's a waste of time but I'm not in charge of what they do. As I said, I want Mars Direct.
I do want to send exploration crews to the surface to find potential locations for colonies. I laid out an entire mobile surface exploration mission architecture for doing that in various other threads here.
Dook wrote:
When I said I don't care about timelines I meant I'm not in a hurry to risk peoples lives to make money doing something completely unnecessary like Elon Musk.
Simply exploring Mars is completely unnecessary and will, in fact, risk peoples' lives. And yet, you still want to send people there.
Dook wrote:
Uhh, you're missing the point, it's not going to take one or two or three or four food shipments, it's going to take constant resupply of food and water.
Potential resupply issues are precisely why ice mining and hydroponic farming should be the very first habitability experiments conducted there. NASA and other space agencies have already sent a good number of sophisticated robotic probes there. There's no reason for humans to even attempt to land there if there's no intent to live there.
Dook wrote:
It would also be prudent to start growing food right away?
Yes
Dook wrote:
Where are you going to grow it?
In a hydroponics module.
Omega Hydroponic Garden Gets Five Times As Much Food Per Watt
Dook wrote:
Please give details on the size and material of the greenhouse and how you're going to keep the fruit and vegetables from freezing at night?
5M diameter x 10M high, vertically emplaced in the Martian regolith. It will be powered by a CO2 cooled nuclear fission reactor connected to the tunnel boring machine that digs the vertical pits for these modules.
The greenhouse is made from the same materials as a Bigelow Aerospace inflatable module since that's what I want to use. The MMOD protection clearly isn't required since these modules will be buried in the ground on Mars and stored in cargo containers for transport to the surface.
Dook wrote:
Also, if you could explain how much water it's going to take to grow the plants and where you are going to get the water from?
We're going to get the water from ice mining and I stated my desire to send surface exploration missions ahead of the colony to find resources. If we have a fission reactor, we're not going to run out of power or heat.
Dook wrote:
Also, most plants don't produce complete protein so what is your protein source going to be?
Hmm...
8 Plant Foods that Contain Complete Proteins (For Vegans)
Dook wrote:
What's my idea of contributing to humanity? I do what I do. If that's not enough for some people, tough.
Will you make an attempt to contribute something to this thread apart from straw man arguments about how difficult something is?
Will you start Dook Direct in its own thread so we can discuss your exploration plans there?

So, one of the first Mars Habs would be devoted to making ceramics on Mars. Okay, it's possible. Not sure how you mold the Mars material into a bowl shape without it being wet. Also, finding a clay deposit is going to take some time, time = oxygen/food/water. You can't just use sand.

The CO2 nuclear reactor sounds good. How are you going to use it's heat to warm the Mars surface to evaporate the water and capture it?
Exploring Mars will risk people's live? Of course it will, I'm not against risk. Space travel is inherently risky. Trying to force 1 million people to Mars in a hurried schedule is too much risk, even if they want to go. We don't support suicide.

There's no reason for humans to even attempt to land on Mars if there is no intent to live there? So we should not have landed on the moon then?

Your greenhouse is going to be 16' x 32'? You say it will be powered by your nuclear reactor? What power do you need in a greenhouse? LED lights? Electric heaters?

So you're going to use a tunnel boring machine to dig some kind of tunnel for the greenhouse? How much does the tunnel boring machine weigh and how many launches does it take to get it to Mars? How do you move it on Mars, with what kind of truck? How do you lift it on the truck bed and then how do you get it off the truck bed?

So you're inflatable greenhouse is going to be buried? Uhh, how does it stay inflated after it's buried?

So, you've got a few exploration habitats spread out on Mars, not sure how many you planned, just guessing it's about 10. You have a hydroponics greenhouse somewhere that can supply some vegetables, no fruit. How do you get the food out to the exploration habs? You have a hab that makes ceramic bowls and cups. I guess they are saved until more people arrive. Where is the MOXIE unit?

Will I make an attempt to contribute to the 1 million people on Mars in 50 years thread? I am contributing. Have you ever heard of peer review?

Will I start Dook Direct thread? There is no Dook Direct. There's Mars Direct, which Elon Musk is using only he's enlarged it substantially, if it works. The heavy Falcon seems reasonable. The super huge ITS is not.

Terraformer · 2016-10-06 10:40:39

Why are you so fixated on 1 million to Mars? I don't think anyone here is actually arguing for that...

Dook · 2016-10-06 11:06:30

kbd512 wrote:

Dook wrote:
If it costs little, why not make it on Mars? Depends on what that little thing is, if the cost is some water, well, then it's not a "little" thing.
If a few cups of water to make some coffee mugs and bowls are all that stands between the colonists and death from lack of water, then there are far more serious problems to address. Thankfully, Mars isn't nearly that dry in many places.
Dook wrote:
We could use the nuclear reactor on Mars to dry out some regolith to get water from it? Okay, not sure what type of nuclear reactor you are talking about. The nuclear reactor on Mars will be an RTG type, not the type that's used to produce electricity on the Earth. The RTG's produce radiation so they need to be moved away from your base, hopefully placed into a small crater, and everyone needs to stay away from it. So, you're not going to be able to use heat from your RTG reactor.
From your commentary, it's pretty clear that you have no basic working knowledge of radiation, so I see no reason to discuss this topic any further with you except to correct your erroneous statements. A fission reactor would need augmented core shielding unless you just want to transport a lot of heavy shielding material to Mars that the planet's surface could just as easily provide. The RTG would not require any more shielding than the casing already provides.
Dook wrote:
It sounds like you didn't look up the RTG reactors like I suggested so your confusing them with the nuclear reactor the navy uses on ships and subs. They ain't the same.
It sounds like you're stuck on this RTG idea.
Dook wrote:
Can you use the electricity from your RTG to heat the Mars surface? Electric heating is inefficient and uses a lot of watts. A small 10" x 10" electric room heater uses 1,500 watts an hour. The largest RTG weighs about 1,000 lbs and puts out 600 watts so even it won't power your tiny electric heater.
I never proposed sending any RTG's to Mars. The RTG idea is what you think I meant when I said "reactor", even though I meant fission reactor. You've already proven that you know little to nothing about radiation exposure or shielding requirements for protecting people in close proximity to RTG's, so I'm done arguing this point with you until you go out educate yourself a little bit more on this topic.
Dook wrote:
Is anything I can't conceive of reckless? No. You? I seem to be conceiving a lot of details while you're conceiving insults. You know that means you've lost the argument, right? I can play that way too.
Apart from surface exploration before colonization, you haven't made any sensible arguments. You've jumped to plenty of conclusions and made a lot of suppositions about the relative ease or difficulty of doing things. I also seriously doubt that you've thought through some of the things you've proposed. I read your long range rover design proposal. You wanted to put a bunch of heavy AGM batteries that produce hydrogen inside a pressure vessel with a 100% oxygen atmosphere. That made about as much sense as some of the arguments you've made about why a colony can't be established.
Dook wrote:
You'll leave the simple math to the simple minded? You have trouble carrying the "1" huh?
Dook wrote:
The weights I listed are for one launch of the heavy Falcon that can take 29 tons to Mars. The weights I listed are for necessary supplies for a crew of 4 for about 500 days on Mars. As I said, after these supplies you still have another 4 tons that you can carry on the first launch and one more launch, since you said it would take two missions to set up your colony. What are you going to put on your next launch?
Since Mr. Musk didn't propose using Falcon Heavy to create a colony, I would've thought it rather obvious that I wasn't talking about using Falcon Heavy for that purpose.
Dook wrote:
You were talking about the Interplanetary Spaceship and not the Falcon? Ohh, the ITS, the one that is supposedly going into space, get refueled five times, then deliver almost a million pounds to Mars in one trip. Don't believe everything you hear.
Mr. Musk has built one of the cryogen tanks for his rocket and hot fired an engine. You and I have rearranged some electrons. However, we're to believe that some anonymous person posting on the internet is more credible than he is.
Dook wrote:
You don't think that Elon Musk's plan for getting 1 million people to Mars in 50 years is realistic? Welcome to the real world.
I said I don't think the plan is realistic using chemical propulsion. Fifty years ago, no one had set foot on the moon.
Dook wrote:
Have I ever used an internal combustion engine? Not in a house, nor in a building, not on a submarine where the air filters don't remove all of it, not on an airplane where others are trapped and can't get away. I've never put a pregnant woman's nose up to an exhaust pipe but pregnant smokers don't use that same morality. My neighbors girlfriend smoked while pregnant and their daughter was born premature and had to spend the first month in the intensive care unit.
I take it you've used internal combustion engines, then? Whatever your girlfriend's cousin's dog did has no bearing on what I do.
Dook wrote:
Should we try and grow food on Mars before trying to figure out resupply requirements? No, we absolutely should not. The second food/water resupply launch has to arrive at the middle of your food supply. The third food/water resupply should arrive just before your first would run out in case the second launch fails.
I'm pretty sure I didn't suggest simply dropping off 100 people on Mars without ever providing resupply missions. In fact, I clearly intimated that far fewer than 100 people would be delivered by the first ships. The first few colonists are going to require resupply as the required infrastructure is built to establish the colony.
Dook wrote:
We already know how much food a person needs, about 5.5 lbs per person a day. We also know how much food plants make. It's simple math. How many fruit trees and vegetable plants do you think it will take to support 4 people year round? What is going to be the protein source? You want to do the carp fish in one tank that eat green algea grown in a second tank thing? What about growing grains? Did you figure out how to keep your plants from freezing at night in the greenhouse when the temperature gets down to -135 F?
I think dropping off 100 people on Mars without any infrastructure or initial resupply is a virtual requirement for any of the silly arguments you've made to have any validity. If we do that, then the colonists will almost certainly die. That's the only way your arguments work.
Dook wrote:
If you had my level of fear and negativity you can't imagine life worth living? But you're the one who wants to throw it all away on Mars living in a confined space with little to no entertainment, and the same food day after day. You've just convinced yourself that it would be somehow "good" for humanity when it's not.
You can't understand people who are not like you or don't want the same things you want and that's pretty easy for me to understand.
Dook wrote:
I am negative towards the ridiculous, very negative.
In that case, I hope you understand some of the negative responses you've received from me towards some of the ridiculous arguments you've made.
Dook wrote:
Musk actually owns a company that builds rockets? Yep, and JFK had an almost unlimited budget. What happens to Musk after a series of setbacks? How long can he spend his own money? What if he does get some colonists to Mars and then his rockets start failing and he loses other investors? Then NASA would have to start sending supplies to Mars constantly.
True. Mr. Musk could run into problems. SpaceX is presently a privately held company, though, so I doubt his non-existent investors will give him much trouble. His customer may or may not have a problem with his Mars colonization ambitions.

Mars actually is extremely dry in most places. Ice is not water and the ice on Mars is mixed with frozen CO2.

RTG's don't require any more shielding? I didn't say they did, what I said was that they need to be moved away from the base. That's why I asked what kind of reactor that you were talking about because it seemed as if you wanted to use heat from it to heat the Mars surface and RTG's do not provide heat to an external place.

Am I stuck on the RTG idea? Yes, to power the first Mars habitat and, once established, to power the buried habitat and greenhouse. At some point in the future a larger nuclear reactor like you suggested would be good, maybe in 100 years.

You never promised sending RTG's to Mars? It doesn't really matter whether you did or not, does it?

I know little to nothing about radiation exposure? Never been irradiated. How about you? Seems you're getting upset. You know that means you're losing the argument, right?

You don't like my Long Range Rover idea? Oh boo hoo, and I sooo much wanted you to like it. Wait, who are you again? Are you someone important? Let's see, is NASA asking enlisted swabbies how to go to Mars? Nope. Is Elon Musk? Nope.

Mr. Musk didn't propose using the heavy Falcon to create a colony on Mars? Then why does the website say that it will put 29 tons on Mars if they're not going to use it to land things on Mars?

Elon Musk has built one of the tanks and fired an engine? That's fantastic, so we better start getting the 1 million people lined up now or do they have a few years to pack?

Elon Musk doesn't have any investors? So he's going to send people to Mars for free? Probably not, each person who goes will have to pay for the flight. Those people are "investors". If a flight fails and bodies are spread out all over the planet or dying of oxygen depravation on Mars it's going to become tougher to get those "investors". Also, SpaceX has contracts with NASA to deliver things to the ISS. If Elon Musk gets too crazy NASA will end it's contract.

Last edited by Dook (2016-10-06 11:24:30)

Dook · 2016-10-06 11:11:27

louis wrote:

For anyone who may be persuaded by Dook's evidence-free pessimism - take a look at this video about the uses of melted basalt:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WARrlVtmT4Q
There is no reason why basalt could not be melted on Mars using photovoltaic or nuclear energy and used to produce a range of useful products including construction materials, flooring, shelving, furniture, kitchen vessels and utensils. Casts could be drilled to high accuracy using CNC machines. In fact probably virtually the whole process could be mechanised and automated, with the colonists just needing to find the right quality of basalt and deploy the casts.
Basalt fibres can also be used to create a wide range of products - including very strong rebar:
http://basalt-rebar.com/
Dook is being self-limiting in envisioning what can be done on Mars.
As always we have to remember the small number of early colonists will be the beneficiaries of a billion dollar investment - they won't be going with spades and shovels (or at least, not just spade and shovels)...they will be going with state of the art machines allowing them to replicate a wide range of industrial processes found on Earth.

Basalt can be used to make all kinds of things, you just need a CNC machine? Well, well, well, you finally have seen the light. So we don't have to make everything from scratch and we can actually bring machines and other pre-made things to Mars?

I'm not self limiting at all. On Mars, some day we absolutely will be able to manufacture everything we can manufacture on the Earth. Ain't gonna happen in 50 years though.

New Mars Forums

Announcement

#51 2016-10-05 16:27:27

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#52 2016-10-05 17:12:33

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#53 2016-10-05 17:48:41

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#54 2016-10-05 18:35:56

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#55 2016-10-05 18:39:01

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#56 2016-10-05 19:08:42

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#57 2016-10-05 19:54:05

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#58 2016-10-05 20:00:39

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#59 2016-10-05 20:02:39

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#60 2016-10-05 20:33:31

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#61 2016-10-05 20:50:24

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#62 2016-10-05 21:20:51

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#63 2016-10-05 23:08:10

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#64 2016-10-06 01:37:37

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#65 2016-10-06 02:36:26

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#66 2016-10-06 04:12:13

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#67 2016-10-06 04:41:05

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#68 2016-10-06 05:27:21

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#69 2016-10-06 05:37:23

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#70 2016-10-06 06:08:54

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#71 2016-10-06 06:17:48

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#72 2016-10-06 10:35:34

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#73 2016-10-06 10:40:39

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#74 2016-10-06 11:06:30

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

#75 2016-10-06 11:11:27

Re: Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

Board footer