Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

Tom Kalbfus · 2016-09-27 17:44:41

Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanity
Brendan Hesse,Digital Trends 1 hour 15 minutes ago .

Elon Musk presented his vision of SpaceX’s eventual manned missions to Mars at IAC2016. During his presentation, the entrepreneur made a number of announcements regarding SpaceX’s goals for Martian landfall and colonizing Mars. Musk’s main point of discussion dealt primarily with SpaceX’s new massive Interplanetary Transport System, a system which utilizes three separate vehicles to make the trip to Mars and is key to Musk’s plan of making travel to Mars an obtainable reality for almost anyone.

Related: SpaceX still on course for a manned mission to Mars ‘in 10 years, maybe sooner’

The system makes use of a massive booster known as the Raptor, a souped-up version of the Falcon 9 which retains the Falcon 9’s multi-use design and thruster landing. The crew transport ship intends to carry 100 people (though Musk plans for more), and features solar arrays and additional thrusters, as well as massive carbon fiber fuel tanks. A refueling craft loaded with methane fuel would also come in use, thus reducing the initial launch weight of the transport ship.

Detailing the launch procedure, Musk says it plans to involve the Raptor booster launching the crew transport in orbit around Earth. The booster would then return to the launch pad where it would be loaded with the refueling craft. After the booster launches again, the refueling craft would dock with the transport before fueling up and beginning the trip towards Mars.

http://www.space.com/34214-fly-through- … video.html
Did you watch the videos? What did you think?

Last edited by Tom Kalbfus (2016-09-27 17:55:37)

louis · 2016-09-27 19:01:44

There's a You Tube vid for people like me who couldn't access those vids on Space.com

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOk6XoOfx-o

Musk seems v. focussed on the rocketry and transportation, which is all very well.

But my focus is much more on what the humans do on Mars when they get there. There won't be a condo for them to move into, which is sometimes how Musk makes it sound. Living on Mars will be extremely challenging, on a par with living on Antarctica all year round.

It's great to think big but is he really planning to land 100 people on Mars, people who have largely volunteered to settle the planet. That's a huge logistical challenge, and so far he's not really provided evidence he's thought through it, which is not to say he hasn't...

I still feel there must surely be some sort of smaller start-up mission which will precede the 100 person drop!

Tom Kalbfus · 2016-09-27 19:46:04

He relies heavily on reusability f his lower stages. His Mars Colonial Transporter is a 2-stage giant rocket, the bottom stage flies back down and lands on the launch pad, and then blasts off with a tank of fuel to take the crew module to Mars. the tank transfers its contents to the crew module, and then flies back to Cape Canaveral for reuse. The crew module them makes a fuel burn for transmars injection, and deploys solar panels for power during the journey, the panels fold back in, the module enters the Martian atmosphere and lands on the surface, that's the part I get from watching he video. Presumably the crew module makes its return fuel from he atmosphere, blasts off from Mars and returns to Earth for reuse. I wonder if Bob Zubrin has yet commented on Musk's proposal, I'd be interested in what he has to say.

GW Johnson · 2016-09-28 00:05:15

Spacex has the video of Musk's IAC presentation on their website. It's nearly 2 hours. I tried without success to download the slides. Maybe soon....

Louis: he wants to start the Mars trips with the big ships in 2022. This is only a handful of people, and around 100 tons of hardware, primary of which is the propellant-making plant. The large passenger-count flights are still decades away. I think I heard him say half a century to a century to reach 1 million people on Mars.

Louis & Tom: yes it's liquid methane, but it's also LOX. The r factor should be near 3:1, meaning 3 tons of LOX for every ton of liquid methane. They must do ice mining, and they know it.

By establishing those same kinds of propellant factories further on out, his future concepts uses that same basic ship concept out to Jupiter and Saturn as well.

Musk seems to understand he cannot raise the $100's of billions to do all of this by himself. He's hoping for public-private partnerships to do all these things. Multiple companies, multiple governments.

GW

louis · 2016-09-28 03:53:26

Thanks for the clarification, GW - although that didn't seem clear from the video I saw, a "handful" of people at the start makes much more sense.

It's just as soon as you start thinking about what it takes to manage a large propellant plant, seems to me you begin to realise the challenges.

My argument would be that a more incremental growth programme would make more sense. I would personally focus on:

- PV energy array
- Indoor artificial light agriculture.
- Water mining
- Iron ore mining
- A range of materials being produced e.g. bamboo, plant polymers, steel and glass.
- ISRU habitat construction.

The emphasis should be for the first few decades of the colony as being for research and development. Establishing a university research facility there would draw huge finance. Imagine a Harvard Institute Mars Research, or Cambridge Mars Research Facility. Or maybe a Yale Centre for Mars Research. It's credible to think they could generate hundreds of millions of dollars of funding, perhaps billions over a couple of decades, not least because the prestige value of such a project would be incalculable (constant daily media coverage around the world), perhaps in collaboration with some big energy companies.

GW Johnson wrote:

Spacex has the video of Musk's IAC presentation on their website. It's nearly 2 hours. I tried without success to download the slides. Maybe soon....
Louis: he wants to start the Mars trips with the big ships in 2022. This is only a handful of people, and around 100 tons of hardware, primary of which is the propellant-making plant. The large passenger-count flights are still decades away. I think I heard him say half a century to a century to reach 1 million people on Mars.
Louis & Tom: yes it's liquid methane, but it's also LOX. The r factor should be near 3:1, meaning 3 tons of LOX for every ton of liquid methane. They must do ice mining, and they know it.
By establishing those same kinds of propellant factories further on out, his future concepts uses that same basic ship concept out to Jupiter and Saturn as well.
Musk seems to understand he cannot raise the $100's of billions to do all of this by himself. He's hoping for public-private partnerships to do all these things. Multiple companies, multiple governments.
GW

Tom Kalbfus · 2016-09-28 10:53:33

SpaceX is doing stuff no one else has ever done, particularly in the landing of bottom stage rockets! If he can convince the government that he can open up the space frontier, he might get some funding, Maybe the United States could leave the Chinese "eating our dust" if they adopt Musk's program! I don't know what's going to happen with the SLS after this. We'll just have to see. There is a new Cold War on, it could lead to anew Space Race, but the competitor I'd worry about would be China. if we got a good plan to send one million people to Mars in 50 years, I think we should do it, as all NASA has been doing with manned space is tinker around the edges, maybe the right technologies will produce and explosion of migration into space. If we can get one million people to Mars, we can also talk about building those O'Neil space colonies. Phobos would be a great place to do it. Phobos is 27 km by 22 km by 16 km. The Rama colony I talked about on another thread is 16 km by 35 km on the inside.
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Ram … &FORM=VIRE
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phobos_(moon)
What Phobos doesn't have, Mars could supply. Since Rama is a starship, we might want to send it to one of the gas giants to get some fuel.
I believe there is enough material and the right sort of material to build this. Of course it won't b precisely like Rama, as the video shows, but by the end of this century, we might be able to build a starship like this, and send it on a century's long journey with colonists to Proxima b or any other more favorable planets in the Alpha Centauri system. We need to b able to open up the space frontier, Elon Musk has a plan to do that, maybe this time it will work. One can hope.

RobertDyck · 2016-09-28 11:31:08

GW Johnson wrote:

I tried without success to download the slides. Maybe soon....

Slides are available in PDF format, directly from www.spacex.com/mars

Click here: Slides

louis · 2016-10-04 10:18:59

Had a look at the slide show, and it seems to be completely blank on how the one million people are going to live...

I am sure Musk being the genius he is has thought about that, but no clues. Perhaps he feels it is too controversial, because as soon as you are into colonisation you are obliged to think about governance. Who is going to rule this colony? Will there be a governor? Will it be democratic from the outset?

Leaving aside the governance issue, it seems Musk offers us no clues about how the colony will be organised in terms of its infrastructure, economic activity and so on. It may be he thinks that the colonists will sought that out for themselves. But we aren't talking about settling the prairies here...the colonists are going to be very interdependent I would think, at least to begin with. Homesteads may become feasible but I doubt they will be feasible at the outset.

Clearly you need to feed, clothe, ventilate and shelter your colonists. You need to attend to their medical, transport and pyschological needs.

And what sort of colony is it going to be? Will it be aiming for self-sufficiency, an ISRU economy? Will it aim to be an exporting economy, looking to earn revenue from Earth, so as to pay for imports? Will it be a research and space agency outpost, reliant of government and university grants? Or (most likely) some combination of the three?

I think the key to success is to provide a strong ISRU base for the economy, using scaled down technology, so they are supplying something like 95% of the mass of stuff they use (with the exception perhaps of rockets). The other 5% being imported (e.g. space suits, 3D printers, computers etc) then can be covered by earnings from trade/contact with Earth.

So the early colonists need to crack how to: produce breathable air, create their own energy systems (after an initial phase where they use imported PV panels), grow and process food, grow and process useful crops like bamboo, manufacture steel and polymers, make clothes, build habitats, make basic household items (furniture, kitchen utensils) - as key priorities.

Dook · 2016-10-04 11:14:59

Can't have the cart before the horse.

If we have a good plan to send 1 million people to Mars in 50 years we should do it? With our current technology there is no possible good plan to send even 100 people to Mars in the next 50 years.

Colonists are not going to create their own energy systems on Mars for a 100 years and probably more like 200 years.

They will grow food, probably not nearly enough to sustain themselves for another 100 years.

Basic household items like furniture and kitchen utensils will never be key priorities on Mars.

Void · 2016-10-04 11:37:53

Louis Said:

Will it aim to be an exporting economy, looking to earn revenue from Earth, so as to pay for imports? Will it be a research and space agency outpost, reliant of government and university grants? Or (most likely) some combination of the three?

So, far Louis, you make the most sense of anyone I have interacted with on how to bootstrap an economy on Mars, and typically doing much better than me. And I am not a kiss up, (Or my price is much higher than this place pays)

Honestly on another thread, gold mining has been proposed. Things I think I know:
1) Earth likely would not have much gold on it's surface unless one asteroid with a lot of gold had hit it late in it's formation.
2) Mars may or may not be favored by gold on it's surface. Less tectonics, closer to the asteroid belt. Don't know.
3) In gold mining situations, it was the cook and the cloths washer that made the most consistent money. I think most miners struck out.
4) Then there are the asteroids:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=358351

433 Eros, the asteroid NASA investigated contains more gold than ever extracted on Earth. The total amount of gold on Earth is calculated at $3,000,000,000,000 and this is excluding all the stuff held in private collections and any fabled Aztec lost city of gold. However, I think there's enough economic incentive in space if we actually put a little money in to begin with.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/433_Eros
So, long term, perhaps Mars can be an exporter of materials which facilitate the extraction of materials from such asteroids, or not, too early to tell.

I think early on, it will be your:

Will it be a research and space agency outpost, reliant of government and university grants?

I think that calibration of reality will be worth it. That is information gathered from Mars, will increase accuracy of understanding, and that will translate into proficiency of effort on the Earth and elsewhere. It is a justifiable investment.

But some adventurers/marginal social types will attempt to make Mars their permanent home, and will have to problem solve to do so. Eventually they should get there.

...
As for Elon Musk himself, I have a few items which I have put into my hunter gatherer sack.
-He has mentioned domes with water in them.
-He thinks, that radiation protection in his BFS will be sufficiently provided by orientation of the BFS, and personal sheltering behind a water column during solar storms.
-He thinks that solar and geothermal might be good energy sources on Mars.
-He thinks that the undergrounds of Mars may in fact hold life that will likely be chemosynthetic in nature. He thinks that introducing Earth germs will not threaten such life, as the Earth germs will not have much hope of displacing the well adapted indigenous life forms.
...

Dook said:

Colonists are not going to create their own energy systems on Mars for a 100 years and probably more like 200 years.

Hmm.. Maybe small nuclear reactors imported from Earth would help.

My own personal favorites are:
1) Solar-Geothermal. Not that hard to speculate on. Since the ship requires massive water, solar power can liquefy a body of water with ice over it. In the cold, energy goes out of the reservoir. In the sunshine energy goes into the reservoir. Or;

Literally fracking the rock, in this case, a fluid such as liquid CO2 might be used. Similar to above.
2) I am wondering about a fuel cell that could directly work off of the CO and O2 in the atmosphere. No such machine exists, but I am wondering.

As for materials to accomplish this, I think that robotics and 3D printers will be able to make most of what is needed by the time it is needed.

100-200 years? Maybe, maybe less.

Don't care honestly, long dead by then, unless wonder science/medicine.

Done

Last edited by Void (2016-10-04 12:12:10)

Tom Kalbfus · 2016-10-04 12:18:06

Dook wrote:

Can't have the cart before the horse.
If we have a good plan to send 1 million people to Mars in 50 years we should do it? With our current technology there is no possible good plan to send even 100 people to Mars in the next 50 years.
Colonists are not going to create their own energy systems on Mars for a 100 years and probably more like 200 years.
They will grow food, probably not nearly enough to sustain themselves for another 100 years.
Basic household items like furniture and kitchen utensils will never be key priorities on Mars.

How old are you? Are you in your 20s perhaps? Perhaps you can tell me what was going on 50 years ago at this moment, October 4, 1966. What about October 4, 1916?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_1966

Here's a small sample:

October 25, 1966 (Tuesday)
The People's Republic of China successfully test-fired a nuclear missile for the first time, with an accurate hit and an atomic blast at a pre-determined target in the Lop Nor desert site.[112][113]
Meeting in Manila, the seven member nations of the South East Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO) agreed to a common plan for ending their participation in the Vietnam War. The Manila Communique, signed by U.S. President Lyndon Johnson, South Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Cao Ky, and other leaders, the nations endorsed a six-point peace proposal and offered to completely withdraw the allied forces from South Vietnam within six months after "the other side withdraws its forces to the North, ceases infiltration, and the level of violence thus subsides." [114][115] However, North Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Van Dong, referring to the Munich Agreement between Adolf Hitler and Neville Chamberlain in 1938, responded, "Never Munich again, in whatever form," and pledged that his nation "will fight until final victory against the U.S. imperialists." [116][117]
A military court in Jakarta sentenced Indonesia's ex-foreign minister Subandrio to death, on charges of being involved in the 30 September Movement.[118][119] The sentence would be reduced to life imprisonment upon the intervention of the British government.
Three days after accusing Britain's Royal Air Force of flying over Spanish territory in order to reach Gibraltar [120] Spain closed off its border crossing at La Línea de la Concepción, the only land connection between the British colony and the rest of Europe.[121]
The Luna 12 space probe, launched by the Soviet Union on October 22, entered orbit around the Moon in order to photograph potential landing sites for a manned mission. With higher resolution television cameras (1100 scan lines) and a closer orbital approach than previous Soviet probes (as near as 103 kilometers), Luna 12 returned images in which 15 meter long objects could be discerned. Most of the photos, taken from a nearly equatorial lunar orbit, were not released.[122][123]
The British House of Commons voted 307-239 to approve the Labour government's compulsory freeze on wages and prices, with a 500-pound sterling fine against violators.[124]
Died: Floyd MacMillan Davis, 70, American illustrator

Superficially, how different is 1966 from today?

Terraformer · 2016-10-04 13:31:16

I gotta say Dook, your N-great granddad must have been a gloomy person, those 200 years ago. "This electricity thing, it'll never become anything useful in my lifetime."

louis · 2016-10-04 14:57:26

Not sure how you arrive at your conclusions.

We certainly have the technology now to send people to Mars. That's essentially what Musk is talking about - harnessing current technologies.

Go through the basic requirements:

(a) Energy: Photovoltaic panels have already been shown to work on Mars (with the Rovers). They can be used in the initial stage. Using that energy, the colonists can manufacture solar reflectors which can be used to power steam engines and produce electricity. They can also produce methane as a power source.

(b) Food: A variety of foods have been grown on Earth indoors under artificial light. There is no technical barrier to growing a full range of foods.

(c) Furniture and kitchen utensils: Do you think the colonists will be sucking paste from a tube like 1960s astronauts? Of course they will need everyday items and they will be a priority.

Dook wrote:

Can't have the cart before the horse.
If we have a good plan to send 1 million people to Mars in 50 years we should do it? With our current technology there is no possible good plan to send even 100 people to Mars in the next 50 years.
Colonists are not going to create their own energy systems on Mars for a 100 years and probably more like 200 years.
They will grow food, probably not nearly enough to sustain themselves for another 100 years.
Basic household items like furniture and kitchen utensils will never be key priorities on Mars.

Terraformer · 2016-10-04 15:08:05

We have the *basic* technology now to colonise space. What we need now is the *mash-up tinkering*, that takes those pieces and invents tools to help us.

Dook · 2016-10-04 15:34:20

Void wrote:

Louis Said:
Will it aim to be an exporting economy, looking to earn revenue from Earth, so as to pay for imports? Will it be a research and space agency outpost, reliant of government and university grants? Or (most likely) some combination of the three?
So, far Louis, you make the most sense of anyone I have interacted with on how to bootstrap an economy on Mars, and typically doing much better than me. And I am not a kiss up, (Or my price is much higher than this place pays)
Honestly on another thread, gold mining has been proposed. Things I think I know:
1) Earth likely would not have much gold on it's surface unless one asteroid with a lot of gold had hit it late in it's formation.
2) Mars may or may not be favored by gold on it's surface. Less tectonics, closer to the asteroid belt. Don't know.
3) In gold mining situations, it was the cook and the cloths washer that made the most consistent money. I think most miners struck out.
4) Then there are the asteroids:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=358351
433 Eros, the asteroid NASA investigated contains more gold than ever extracted on Earth. The total amount of gold on Earth is calculated at $3,000,000,000,000 and this is excluding all the stuff held in private collections and any fabled Aztec lost city of gold. However, I think there's enough economic incentive in space if we actually put a little money in to begin with.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/433_Eros
So, long term, perhaps Mars can be an exporter of materials which facilitate the extraction of materials from such asteroids, or not, too early to tell.
I think early on, it will be your:
Will it be a research and space agency outpost, reliant of government and university grants?
I think that calibration of reality will be worth it. That is information gathered from Mars, will increase accuracy of understanding, and that will translate into proficiency of effort on the Earth and elsewhere. It is a justifiable investment.
But some adventurers/marginal social types will attempt to make Mars their permanent home, and will have to problem solve to do so. Eventually they should get there.
...
As for Elon Musk himself, I have a few items which I have put into my hunter gatherer sack.
-He has mentioned domes with water in them.
-He thinks, that radiation protection in his BFS will be sufficiently provided by orientation of the BFS, and personal sheltering behind a water column during solar storms.
-He thinks that solar and geothermal might be good energy sources on Mars.
-He thinks that the undergrounds of Mars may in fact hold life that will likely be chemosynthetic in nature. He thinks that introducing Earth germs will not threaten such life, as the Earth germs will not have much hope of displacing the well adapted indigenous life forms.
...
Dook said:
Colonists are not going to create their own energy systems on Mars for a 100 years and probably more like 200 years.
Hmm.. Maybe small nuclear reactors imported from Earth would help.
My own personal favorites are:
1) Solar-Geothermal. Not that hard to speculate on. Since the ship requires massive water, solar power can liquefy a body of water with ice over it. In the cold, energy goes out of the reservoir. In the sunshine energy goes into the reservoir. Or;
Literally fracking the rock, in this case, a fluid such as liquid CO2 might be used. Similar to above.
2) I am wondering about a fuel cell that could directly work off of the CO and O2 in the atmosphere. No such machine exists, but I am wondering.
As for materials to accomplish this, I think that robotics and 3D printers will be able to make most of what is needed by the time it is needed.
100-200 years? Maybe, maybe less.
Don't care honestly, long dead by then, unless wonder science/medicine.
Done

Maybe small nuclear reactors imported from Earth? That's exactly what they'll use, RTG's and solar panels, but they'll come from the Earth not be assembled on Mars.

Solar-Geothermal? I understand Solar but how does Geothermal fit into it? Geothermal means heat from the planet, where on Mars has underground heat been detected? Think you might have your cart before your horse.

You're wondering if a fuel cell could work off of CO2? Solar panels work fine.

Robotics are great for simple tasks. Robots that can do complex things are still science fiction and will be for some time.

Dook · 2016-10-04 15:48:44

Tom Kalbfus wrote:

Dook wrote:
Can't have the cart before the horse.
If we have a good plan to send 1 million people to Mars in 50 years we should do it? With our current technology there is no possible good plan to send even 100 people to Mars in the next 50 years.
Colonists are not going to create their own energy systems on Mars for a 100 years and probably more like 200 years.
They will grow food, probably not nearly enough to sustain themselves for another 100 years.
Basic household items like furniture and kitchen utensils will never be key priorities on Mars.
How old are you? Are you in your 20s perhaps? Perhaps you can tell me what was going on 50 years ago at this moment, October 4, 1966. What about October 4, 1916?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_1966
Here's a small sample:
October 25, 1966 (Tuesday)
The People's Republic of China successfully test-fired a nuclear missile for the first time, with an accurate hit and an atomic blast at a pre-determined target in the Lop Nor desert site.[112][113]
Meeting in Manila, the seven member nations of the South East Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO) agreed to a common plan for ending their participation in the Vietnam War. The Manila Communique, signed by U.S. President Lyndon Johnson, South Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Cao Ky, and other leaders, the nations endorsed a six-point peace proposal and offered to completely withdraw the allied forces from South Vietnam within six months after "the other side withdraws its forces to the North, ceases infiltration, and the level of violence thus subsides." [114][115] However, North Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Van Dong, referring to the Munich Agreement between Adolf Hitler and Neville Chamberlain in 1938, responded, "Never Munich again, in whatever form," and pledged that his nation "will fight until final victory against the U.S. imperialists." [116][117]
A military court in Jakarta sentenced Indonesia's ex-foreign minister Subandrio to death, on charges of being involved in the 30 September Movement.[118][119] The sentence would be reduced to life imprisonment upon the intervention of the British government.
Three days after accusing Britain's Royal Air Force of flying over Spanish territory in order to reach Gibraltar [120] Spain closed off its border crossing at La Línea de la Concepción, the only land connection between the British colony and the rest of Europe.[121]
The Luna 12 space probe, launched by the Soviet Union on October 22, entered orbit around the Moon in order to photograph potential landing sites for a manned mission. With higher resolution television cameras (1100 scan lines) and a closer orbital approach than previous Soviet probes (as near as 103 kilometers), Luna 12 returned images in which 15 meter long objects could be discerned. Most of the photos, taken from a nearly equatorial lunar orbit, were not released.[122][123]
The British House of Commons voted 307-239 to approve the Labour government's compulsory freeze on wages and prices, with a 500-pound sterling fine against violators.[124]
Died: Floyd MacMillan Davis, 70, American illustrator
Superficially, how different is 1966 from today?

How old am I? I'm 49, how old are you?

How different is 1966 from today? And what have we done since 1966? Well, we went to the moon with a series of Apollo missions, then we spent the next 30 years in low earth orbit with the almost useless Space Shuttle. Then the first President Bush asks NASA to come up with a mission to Mars and their idea's are impossibly complex and way too costly. Then a nobody named Robert Zubrin makes NASA look foolish and comes up with Mars Direct and it's been, what, twenty years later and we're just now building a heavy lift vehicle to take us to Mars.

Technology is not what's holding us back, good NASA leadership is. We could have gone to Mars with Mars Direct ten years ago. Now NASA is stuck with this Orion capsule that isn't ideal for going to Mars so what is it going to be used for? Asteroids, great.

NASA can screw up in space and waste time and it will still get it's money. Elon Musk can't.

Even so, if everything goes perfectly for Elon Musk, we won't be anywhere near having 1 million people on Mars in 50 years. Even if he started sending his 100 man spacecraft to Mars once a month starting this month that would only be 60,000 people on Mars in 50 years. You guys are living in a science fiction fantasyland.

Last edited by Dook (2016-10-04 16:44:12)

Dook · 2016-10-04 15:53:48

Terraformer wrote:

I gotta say Dook, your N-great granddad must have been a gloomy person, those 200 years ago. "This electricity thing, it'll never become anything useful in my lifetime."

What's the gloom? If we don't have 1 million people or even 100 people on Mars in 50 years, so what?

Dook · 2016-10-04 16:08:51

louis wrote:

Not sure how you arrive at your conclusions.
We certainly have the technology now to send people to Mars. That's essentially what Musk is talking about - harnessing current technologies.
Go through the basic requirements:
(a) Energy: Photovoltaic panels have already been shown to work on Mars (with the Rovers). They can be used in the initial stage. Using that energy, the colonists can manufacture solar reflectors which can be used to power steam engines and produce electricity. They can also produce methane as a power source.
(b) Food: A variety of foods have been grown on Earth indoors under artificial light. There is no technical barrier to growing a full range of foods.
(c) Furniture and kitchen utensils: Do you think the colonists will be sucking paste from a tube like 1960s astronauts? Of course they will need everyday items and they will be a priority.

Dook wrote:
Can't have the cart before the horse.
If we have a good plan to send 1 million people to Mars in 50 years we should do it? With our current technology there is no possible good plan to send even 100 people to Mars in the next 50 years.
Colonists are not going to create their own energy systems on Mars for a 100 years and probably more like 200 years.
They will grow food, probably not nearly enough to sustain themselves for another 100 years.
Basic household items like furniture and kitchen utensils will never be key priorities on Mars.

You're not sure how I arrive at my conclusions? Uh, here's how: "We need to figure out a way to build pressure doors on Mars." When all you have to do is slowwww down and send pre-built pressure doors.

Posting that Elon Musk wants to have 1 million people on Mars in 50 years when that would mean moving 20,000 people a year to Mars and those launches don't include building components or even kitchen utensils? Do some math, even a little, and you can see that it's beyond impossible unless aliens suddenly land in a huge ship and say "We're here to serve man".

Go through the basic requirements:
Solar panels can be used in the initial stage and using that energy colonists can manufacture solar reflectors to power steam engines? I won't talk about making methane on Mars because that requires a feedstock and just isn't necessary but if you think you can do it, fine. Let me see the math.

How many launches, with what rocket, with what people, with what water and food, with what habitat, with what rovers, what area of Mars? Let me see it, the whole thing, from the beginning. Don't show me finished results of some water color buildings, start from the very beginning, first launch, second launch, third launch, what components are sent and how do they begin to manufacture anything at all. You've glossed over all that and jumped right to the end product. You've got your cart. Before. Horse.

We can grow plants in artificial light? Of course we can, how many people is that going to support? Do the math.

Do I think colonists will be sucking paste like 1960's astronauts? No, I think the first, second, third, and probably fourth missions to Mars will include MRE type meals. Colonists, when they finally do get there will probably be eating MRE type meals as well that are once in a while supplemented by a small amount of fruit and vegetables grown on Mars.

louis · 2016-10-04 16:34:48

Void-

Some interesting observations and perspectives in your post.

A couple of comments:

1. Re gold, my reading suggests that many meteorites would have been involved in deposition of gold on Earth, and vulcanism brings it to the surface, and so a similar pattern on Mars is probable.

2. Overall I am v. optimistic to thrive on Mars, and think if Musk is on the case it could happen as quickly as he says. He also is in a hurry. He wants to see it get going before he dies.

louis · 2016-10-04 17:15:20

Dook wrote:

You're not sure how I arrive at my conclusions? Uh, here's how: "We need to figure out a way to build pressure doors on Mars." When all you have to do is slowwww down and send pre-built pressure doors.

I know we can send pre-built pressure doors to Mars, but the more mass we produce with ISRU on Mars, then the more self-sufficient that community is (one of Musk's stated goals is to create an alternative habitat for humankind, and that means self-suffiency on both planets, not just Earth), and the more of an independent economy will develop on Mars that can fund itself.

Dook wrote:

Posting that Elon Musk wants to have 1 million people on Mars in 50 years when that would mean moving 20,000 people a year to Mars and those launches don't include building components or even kitchen utensils? Do some math, even a little, and you can see that it's beyond impossible unless aliens suddenly land in a huge ship and say "We're here to serve man".

I think you are confusing Musk's comments and mine. I think his plan is over-ambitious in that respect. But it's not impossible if, as he claims, he can get the cost of Mars-Earth transit down to $140,000 per tonne. He's not stupid. I am sure he has thought about the colony's needs - but he hasn't explained yet how they will be met. But at $140,000 per tonne, you could certainly supply a lot of the needs directly. A family of four in somewhere like the USA might have a 1000 kgs of furniture household goods and plumbing etc in their house. I am lightweight alternatives can be found on Mars and there's no need to have a giant TV or a giant sofa. Let's say it's an average of 125 kgs per person on Mars - that's 125 million kgs or 125,000 tonnes of "stuff" to kit out Mars households for a million people, that would cost $17.5 billion to transport to Mars - a doable figure over 50 years at $350 million per annum.

But that's where ISRU is important. There is no reason why say the early Mars colonists can't make furniture and utensils from basalt, glass, steel, polymers, bamboo and other materials made or grown on Mars.

Dook wrote:

Go through the basic requirements:
Solar panels can be used in the initial stage and using that energy colonists can manufacture solar reflectors to power steam engines? I won't talk about making methane on Mars because that requires a feedstock and just isn't necessary but if you think you can do it, fine. Let me see the math.

Musk has set out how to make methane on Mars. Remember also that methane has been found on Mars so there may be concentrated deposits. What you have to keep in mind is that on Earth we have a population of 7 billion competing for the planet's resources with varying degrees of success. At most Musk is proposing 0.014 of that population to harness resources on a land surface area almost equal to the land surface area of Earth. That's really why the maths will work, because each colonist will have free land to work on and a huge per capita energy bonus. For the first few hundred colonists, the energy will come from PV panels but there is no reason why they can't use that powerful energy resource to smelt iron ore, manufacture steel, and create solar reflectors that can power steam engines or provide direct heat for industrial processes.

Dook wrote:

How many launches, with what rocket, with what people, with what water and food, with what habitat, with what rovers, what area of Mars? Let me see it, the whole thing, from the beginning. Don't show me finished results of some water color buildings, start from the very beginning, first launch, second launch, third launch, what components are sent and how do they begin to manufacture anything at all. You've glossed over all that and jumped right to the end product. You've got your cart. Before. Horse.

Go to Space X website and look at the slide show. It's all there on the rocketry and transit. Robot rovers have been driven on Mars for years. There is nothing exotic about rover technology. We've built pressurised capsules for space and for submarine activity for decades now.

Dook wrote:

We can grow plants in artificial light? Of course we can, how many people is that going to support? Do the math.

I've done the maths before. If you take a high estimate of the land requirement for one person as being 1.2 acres or about 4000 sq. metres (63x63 metres). That's in a temperate zone. With indoor agriculture you can (a) have crops on several tiers on the same land area (I would say you could easily average 3 tiers - so that takes you down to 1300 sq metres and (b) use crops that can be harvested up to 10 times a year let's say an average of 3 times per year - so again the 1300 sq metres comes down to just over 400 sq metres or 20 x 20 metres. You can see that is very manageable.

Dook wrote:

Do I think colonists will be sucking paste like 1960's astronauts? No, I think the first, second, third, and probably fourth missions to Mars will include MRE type meals. Colonists, when they finally do get there will probably be eating MRE type meals as well that are once in a while supplemented by a small amount of fruit and vegetables grown on Mars.

I think you should be more adventurous in your thinking. Food is really just energy. And energy is one thing of which there will be an abundance.

There's no great mystery to soil, if you want to grow in soil. Grind down rocks, throw in food waste and faeces...you'll soon have a good growing medium.

Tom Kalbfus · 2016-10-04 18:05:26

Dook wrote:

Tom Kalbfus wrote:
Dook wrote:
Can't have the cart before the horse.
If we have a good plan to send 1 million people to Mars in 50 years we should do it? With our current technology there is no possible good plan to send even 100 people to Mars in the next 50 years.
Colonists are not going to create their own energy systems on Mars for a 100 years and probably more like 200 years.
They will grow food, probably not nearly enough to sustain themselves for another 100 years.
Basic household items like furniture and kitchen utensils will never be key priorities on Mars.
How old are you? Are you in your 20s perhaps? Perhaps you can tell me what was going on 50 years ago at this moment, October 4, 1966. What about October 4, 1916?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_1966
Here's a small sample:
October 25, 1966 (Tuesday)
The People's Republic of China successfully test-fired a nuclear missile for the first time, with an accurate hit and an atomic blast at a pre-determined target in the Lop Nor desert site.[112][113]
Meeting in Manila, the seven member nations of the South East Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO) agreed to a common plan for ending their participation in the Vietnam War. The Manila Communique, signed by U.S. President Lyndon Johnson, South Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Cao Ky, and other leaders, the nations endorsed a six-point peace proposal and offered to completely withdraw the allied forces from South Vietnam within six months after "the other side withdraws its forces to the North, ceases infiltration, and the level of violence thus subsides." [114][115] However, North Vietnam's Prime Minister Pham Van Dong, referring to the Munich Agreement between Adolf Hitler and Neville Chamberlain in 1938, responded, "Never Munich again, in whatever form," and pledged that his nation "will fight until final victory against the U.S. imperialists." [116][117]
A military court in Jakarta sentenced Indonesia's ex-foreign minister Subandrio to death, on charges of being involved in the 30 September Movement.[118][119] The sentence would be reduced to life imprisonment upon the intervention of the British government.
Three days after accusing Britain's Royal Air Force of flying over Spanish territory in order to reach Gibraltar [120] Spain closed off its border crossing at La Línea de la Concepción, the only land connection between the British colony and the rest of Europe.[121]
The Luna 12 space probe, launched by the Soviet Union on October 22, entered orbit around the Moon in order to photograph potential landing sites for a manned mission. With higher resolution television cameras (1100 scan lines) and a closer orbital approach than previous Soviet probes (as near as 103 kilometers), Luna 12 returned images in which 15 meter long objects could be discerned. Most of the photos, taken from a nearly equatorial lunar orbit, were not released.[122][123]
The British House of Commons voted 307-239 to approve the Labour government's compulsory freeze on wages and prices, with a 500-pound sterling fine against violators.[124]
Died: Floyd MacMillan Davis, 70, American illustrator
Superficially, how different is 1966 from today?
How old am I? I'm 49, how old are you?
How different is 1966 from today? And what have we done since 1966? Well, we went to the moon with a series of Apollo missions, then we spent the next 30 years in low earth orbit with the almost useless Space Shuttle. Then the first President Bush asks NASA to come up with a mission to Mars and their idea's are impossibly complex and way too costly. Then a nobody named Robert Zubrin makes NASA look foolish and comes up with Mars Direct and it's been, what, twenty years later and we're just now building a heavy lift vehicle to take us to Mars.
Technology is not what's holding us back, good NASA leadership is. We could have gone to Mars with Mars Direct ten years ago. Now NASA is stuck with this Orion capsule that isn't ideal for going to Mars so what is it going to be used for? Asteroids, great.
NASA can screw up in space and waste time and it will still get it's money. Elon Musk can't.
Even so, if everything goes perfectly for Elon Musk, we won't be anywhere near having 1 million people on Mars in 50 years. Even if he started sending his 100 man spacecraft to Mars once a month starting this month that would only be 60,000 people on Mars in 50 years. You guys are living in a science fiction fantasyland.

You know we don't have to work out of just one launch pad, if the demand is high enough, more launch pads can be built, we could launch multiple rockets at once, multiple rockets can fly in every launch window, just as we have multiple airplanes taking off and landing at multiple airports all the time. If the cost can be brought down, then the demand will go up. Each ship can carry 100 people, but if we launch 100 ships at once we can send 10,000 people to Mars on a convoy of spaceships. We don't do that now, because the cause is too high, but if we can bring down the cost, we can certainly justify building 100 launch pads to launch 100 rockets at once, there is nothing that says we couldn't do this, there is plenty of space to launch all of those rockets in a single launch window and not have them bump into each other. So if we could send 10,000 human beings every launch window that is how much in 70 years?, about 350,000. Okay, so if we built 300 launch pads and launched 300 ships at a time, we could have one million people on Mars in 70 years, not too bad. What sort of airplanes did we have in 1916?

I think they looked something like this. How do you go from this
th?id=OIP.M457fe9f3f1e3cd7e1737c2b0f70cb638H0&pid=15.1
to this in 70 years? What would be the early 22nd century equivalent to a 777 in space? Would it be those crude things we're talking about now?

Dook · 2016-10-04 18:06:09

louis wrote:

Dook wrote:
You're not sure how I arrive at my conclusions? Uh, here's how: "We need to figure out a way to build pressure doors on Mars." When all you have to do is slowwww down and send pre-built pressure doors.
I know we can send pre-built pressure doors to Mars, but the more mass we produce with ISRU on Mars, then the more self-sufficient that community is (one of Musk's stated goals is to create an alternative habitat for humankind, and that means self-suffiency on both planets, not just Earth), and the more of an independent economy will develop on Mars that can fund itself.
Dook wrote:
Posting that Elon Musk wants to have 1 million people on Mars in 50 years when that would mean moving 20,000 people a year to Mars and those launches don't include building components or even kitchen utensils? Do some math, even a little, and you can see that it's beyond impossible unless aliens suddenly land in a huge ship and say "We're here to serve man".
I think you are confusing Musk's comments and mine. I think his plan is over-ambitious in that respect. But it's not impossible if, as he claims, he can get the cost of Mars-Earth transit down to $140,000 per tonne. He's not stupid. I am sure he has thought about the colony's needs - but he hasn't explained yet how they will be met. But at $140,000 per tonne, you could certainly supply a lot of the needs directly. A family of four in somewhere like the USA might have a 1000 kgs of furniture household goods and plumbing etc in their house. I am lightweight alternatives can be found on Mars and there's no need to have a giant TV or a giant sofa. Let's say it's an average of 125 kgs per person on Mars - that's 125 million kgs or 125,000 tonnes of "stuff" to kit out Mars households for a million people, that would cost $17.5 billion to transport to Mars - a doable figure over 50 years at $350 million per annum.
But that's where ISRU is important. There is no reason why say the early Mars colonists can't make furniture and utensils from basalt, glass, steel, polymers, bamboo and other materials made or grown on Mars.

Dook wrote:
Go through the basic requirements:
Solar panels can be used in the initial stage and using that energy colonists can manufacture solar reflectors to power steam engines? I won't talk about making methane on Mars because that requires a feedstock and just isn't necessary but if you think you can do it, fine. Let me see the math.
Musk has set out how to make methane on Mars. Remember also that methane has been found on Mars so there may be concentrated deposits. What you have to keep in mind is that on Earth we have a population of 7 billion competing for the planet's resources with varying degrees of success. At most Musk is proposing 0.014 of that population to harness resources on a land surface area almost equal to the land surface area of Earth. That's really why the maths will work, because each colonist will have free land to work on and a huge per capita energy bonus. For the first few hundred colonists, the energy will come from PV panels but there is no reason why they can't use that powerful energy resource to smelt iron ore, manufacture steel, and create solar reflectors that can power steam engines or provide direct heat for industrial processes.

Dook wrote:
How many launches, with what rocket, with what people, with what water and food, with what habitat, with what rovers, what area of Mars? Let me see it, the whole thing, from the beginning. Don't show me finished results of some water color buildings, start from the very beginning, first launch, second launch, third launch, what components are sent and how do they begin to manufacture anything at all. You've glossed over all that and jumped right to the end product. You've got your cart. Before. Horse.
Go to Space X website and look at the slide show. It's all there on the rocketry and transit. Robot rovers have been driven on Mars for years. There is nothing exotic about rover technology. We've built pressurised capsules for space and for submarine activity for decades now.
Dook wrote:
We can grow plants in artificial light? Of course we can, how many people is that going to support? Do the math.
I've done the maths before. If you take a high estimate of the land requirement for one person as being 1.2 acres or about 4000 sq. metres (63x63 metres). That's in a temperate zone. With indoor agriculture you can (a) have crops on several tiers on the same land area (I would say you could easily average 3 tiers - so that takes you down to 1300 sq metres and (b) use crops that can be harvested up to 10 times a year let's say an average of 3 times per year - so again the 1300 sq metres comes down to just over 400 sq metres or 20 x 20 metres. You can see that is very manageable.
Dook wrote:
Do I think colonists will be sucking paste like 1960's astronauts? No, I think the first, second, third, and probably fourth missions to Mars will include MRE type meals. Colonists, when they finally do get there will probably be eating MRE type meals as well that are once in a while supplemented by a small amount of fruit and vegetables grown on Mars.
I think you should be more adventurous in your thinking. Food is really just energy. And energy is one thing of which there will be an abundance.
There's no great mystery to soil, if you want to grow in soil. Grind down rocks, throw in food waste and faeces...you'll soon have a good growing medium.

The more we produce on Mars the better? Please detail all the launches to get all the equipment to Mars to manufacture a sofa.

One of Elon Musks goals is a self sufficient community on Mars? That's great. In about 100 years we might have a reasonably sized habitat and a greenhouse that can provide all of the food for a very small colony. Maybe.

1 million people on Mars in 50 years is not impossible? Actually it is. If Musk is able to build a spacecraft that can launch 100 people to Mars, which he can't, but lets just say he could, if the EU launched 1 ship a month, France launched 1 ship a month, China launched 2 ships a month, Russia launched 2 ships a month, and the US launched 2 ships a month we would only have 480,000 people on Mars in 50 years. And that's just people, that doesn't count water, food, building materials, solar panels, RTG reactors, rovers, batteries, plants, manufacturing equipment...

You're only looking at costs. Cost is just one factor. What companies are going to build Elon Musk's huge 100 person rockets, you need 200 rockets a month to get 1 million people to Mars in 50 years.

Cart. Before. Horse.

There's no reason that early colonists can't make their own furniture and utensils? Sure there is, there's no manufacturing on Mars. Please exlain the equipment necessary to manufacture a sofa on Mars and explain how many launches it will take to get that equipment, it's power source, it's habitat, the people, food, water, oxygen, and vehicles. And explain your time schedule.

Musk has set out how to make methane on Mars? You mean 15 years after Robert Zubrin explained how to do it in his book "The Case for Mars". You do know that this website was started because of Zubrin's Mars Direct ideas and not Elon Musk's ideas, right? Methane requires a feedstock, please explain how many rocket launches it's going to take to deliver the hydrogen to Mars and then what equipment you're going to use to convert it to methane.

Methane has been found on Mars? How are you going to separate it from Mars CO2? Also, methane is a rocket fuel, what would colonists need rocket fuel for?

The math will work because the Earth has too many people? You're only looking at costs.

Each colonist won't have free land to work because you can't make enough oxygen on Mars for 1 million people. NASA hasn't even tested the MOXIE unit on Mars yet and that is only oxygen, what about food, water, spare parts?

There's no reason colonists can't smelt iron ore? Actually there is a really good reason they can't, no equipment exists on Mars to do that. No hab. No oxygen. No food. No rover. No solar panels. No batteries. You're cart is way, way, way, before your horse.
Robot rover have been driven on Mars for years? Yes, they're 2 foot by 2 foot and move about 1 mph and get stuck in sand. You weren't expecting to build a base with them were you?

What is the size of your greenhouse with three tiers? What is it made of? How many launches for all of the greenhouse components? Just because it's open land doesn't mean things are going to happen fast, it's Mars, not the Earth.

We can use crops that can be harvested 3 times a year? What crops would that be? How are you going to get the water to Mars? When watering plants in a warm atmosphere the water will evaporate, how are you going to capture the evaporated water?

Food is just energy? Not really, try eating electricity or sunlight.

There's no great mystery to soil? I didn't say there was, the mystery is how you get manufacturing on Mars, something you won't go into detail about either because you don't know how to come up with the amount of launches it's going to take for all that equipment or you know it won't be doable at your schedule so you're just ignoring it.

I should be more adventurous in my thinking? My thinking is adventurous. Your's is pure fantasy.

Dook · 2016-10-04 18:28:05

Tom Kalbfus wrote:

Dook wrote:
Tom Kalbfus wrote:
How old are you? Are you in your 20s perhaps? Perhaps you can tell me what was going on 50 years ago at this moment, October 4, 1966. What about October 4, 1916?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_1966
Here's a small sample:
Superficially, how different is 1966 from today?
How old am I? I'm 49, how old are you?
How different is 1966 from today? And what have we done since 1966? Well, we went to the moon with a series of Apollo missions, then we spent the next 30 years in low earth orbit with the almost useless Space Shuttle. Then the first President Bush asks NASA to come up with a mission to Mars and their idea's are impossibly complex and way too costly. Then a nobody named Robert Zubrin makes NASA look foolish and comes up with Mars Direct and it's been, what, twenty years later and we're just now building a heavy lift vehicle to take us to Mars.
Technology is not what's holding us back, good NASA leadership is. We could have gone to Mars with Mars Direct ten years ago. Now NASA is stuck with this Orion capsule that isn't ideal for going to Mars so what is it going to be used for? Asteroids, great.
NASA can screw up in space and waste time and it will still get it's money. Elon Musk can't.
Even so, if everything goes perfectly for Elon Musk, we won't be anywhere near having 1 million people on Mars in 50 years. Even if he started sending his 100 man spacecraft to Mars once a month starting this month that would only be 60,000 people on Mars in 50 years. You guys are living in a science fiction fantasyland.
You know we don't have to work out of just one launch pad, if the demand is high enough, more launch pads can be built, we could launch multiple rockets at once, multiple rockets can fly in every launch window, just as we have multiple airplanes taking off and landing at multiple airports all the time. If the cost can be brought down, then the demand will go up. Each ship can carry 100 people, but if we launch 100 ships at once we can send 10,000 people to Mars on a convoy of spaceships. We don't do that now, because the cause is too high, but if we can bring down the cost, we can certainly justify building 100 launch pads to launch 100 rockets at once, there is nothing that says we couldn't do this, there is plenty of space to launch all of those rockets in a single launch window and not have them bump into each other. So if we could send 10,000 human beings every launch window that is how much in 70 years?, about 350,000. Okay, so if we built 300 launch pads and launched 300 ships at a time, we could have one million people on Mars in 70 years, not too bad. What sort of airplanes did we have in 1916?
http://img.brothersoft.com/screenshots/ … 115-1.jpeg
I think they looked something like this. How do you go from this
http://tse3.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.M457f … 0&pid=15.1
to this in 70 years? What would be the early 22nd century equivalent to a 777 in space? Would it be those crude things we're talking about now?

We can build mutliple rockets at once? Cool man, we only need 200 a month. Where are you going to get the money to build 200 rocket assembly plants? This is insane.

Demand won't go up after your first 100 people who land on Mars die of oxygen depravation, or thirst and starvation without ever leaving the spacecraft.

We could launch 300 rockets at once? No, we couldn't. That's just crazy. You would need 300 launch sites, with crews and mission controls for every one and then you have to worry about the rockets colliding. That is pure insanity.

Why not just launch rockets at your maximum manufacturing rate? Then you would only need 1 launch site and 1 mission control for the launch, even then you're not going to get 1 million people on Mars in 50 years because that is not a necessary goal. There's no reason to do it.

You guys are thinking that we need to evacuate the Earth. We really don't.

What happened to this website? It used to have real scientists and engineers on here, now it's all Buck Rogers science fiction kids.

Void · 2016-10-04 19:28:39

Louis said:

Void-
Some interesting observations and perspectives in your post.
A couple of comments:
1. Re gold, my reading suggests that many meteorites would have been involved in deposition of gold on Earth, and vulcanism brings it to the surface, and so a similar pattern on Mars is probable.
2. Overall I am v. optimistic to thrive on Mars, and think if Musk is on the case it could happen as quickly as he says. He also is in a hurry. He wants to see it get going before he dies.

Thanks Louis. I took another look, and realize that I must have based my opinion on a single article from the past. Really sorry, and I appreciate the correction.

I will then say since Mars and Earth have a different formation history, I wonder if Mars might be much richer in gold. (More optimistic now). Mars might have been hit by a large object also though according to some notions, and it's main moon produced would have crashed into Mars by now. That is all speculation, I would not know and I do not intend to support a formation version for Mars.

Last edited by Void (2016-10-04 19:33:12)

Void · 2016-10-04 19:34:32

Dook,

I am at best a hunchback or a angry idiot, not a mad scientist. However I can be trained. I will get out of the way if asked with reasonable politeness. Maybe I should not be on the site anyway.

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Elon Musk wants to populate Mars with 1 million people to save humanit

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