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How might Mars look 20 years after the first landing?
Here's a speculative sector analysis of the nascent Mars economy by Year 20:
1. Aerospace - Rocket hoppers and orbital rockets are now being produced. The base will have a dedicated Spaceport. A range of rocket fuels, such as LOX and methane will be produced.
2. Agriculture - A full range of food crops will be produced: salad vegetables, grains, fruit, beans, pulses etc. No animal farming will yet be undertaken (meat is imported).
3. Chemical industry – The community’s ability to process and manipulate a wide range of materials will be in place. The settlement can produce Mars ISRU feedstock for plastics. Very pure silicon can be produced for electronics, computers and PV panels.
4. Computers - The settlement is now able to produce basic computers which it is applying to life support systems.
5. Construction - Using ISRU bricks, basalt, cement, concrete, glass, 3D printing techniques, Mars dust-sourced “rubber” and steel frames, the Mars settlement is able to construct its own habs for accommodation, farming and industry.
6. Domestic goods - The settlement is able to produce refrigerators, freezers, ovens, cookers, hobs, plumbing parts, kitchen utensils, cooking ware, basic furniture, hygiene products (such as soap and toothpaste).
7. Education and research - An Earth-based University has established a Research Centre on Mars which is part of the base and forms an important part of the economy.
8. Electrical - The settlement is producing a range of chemical batteries, some of which are being used to power the Base Zone rovers and to even out power over a sol. The settlement is now able to produce cable – plastic covered copper wiring. Most copper wiring is being produced from recycled materials but some is being sourced from meteorites on the surface of Mars.
9. Energy - Mars now has a well developed energy sector based on PV power systems, solar reflectors,, chemical batteries, differential heat engines and methane/hydrogen production Virtually all elements of the energy system can now be produced with ISRU on Mars, although PV film is still being imported from Earth.
10. Food processing – Food processing is becoming a more important activity. Some chilled meals and prepared salads are being produced. Nearly all food processing is automated. Food is refrigerated, turned into powder form, and frozen.
11. Life Support - Life support (water, air and temperature control) is a key industry that generates income e.g. through sale to Universities, TV companies and space agencies.
12. Metal industry - This is an important sector, producing steel supports for construction, steel tools for farming, steel bars and suspension springs for rovers. Steel is used to produce gas cylinders and gas tanks. Aluminium is used in construction of airlocks and pressure cabins.
13. Pharmaceuticals - This industry is at quite a primitive level. The community is only just beginning to produce basic medicines and other health products such as paracetamol, some vitamins and minerals.
14. Textiles - Basic clothing – cotton T shirts and trousers - are being produced. Plans are in place for production of Mars ISRU space suits.
15. Transport - Mars is now able to produce its own rovers rather than having to import them. Small pressurised Rovers are used to transfer from one hab to another with ease (it taking only five minutes to exit through air lock chambers. The vehicles are kept small in order that airlocks can be on a small scale as well. Longer range rovers use methane and oxygen as their power systems.
16. Water - Water is mined at large glaciers or ice deposits and transported in robot rovers to the Base where it is stored in shaded and regolith covered storage pits. Water recycling is a feature of nearly all processes.
Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com
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Very interesting speculation
How might Mars look 20 years after the first landing?
Here's a speculative sector analysis of the nascent Mars economy by Year 20
16 points to adress is a long enough list to discuss but
We have talked on this before at Newmars but not a 20 yr prediction, sometimes the discussion did go a little off-topic
An Earth-based University has established a Research Centre on Mars which is part of the base and forms an important part of the economy.
Here is a discussion I will quote from another thread
a Terraforming project, a Research Center to change the climate and landscape of Mars?
Well, I will start with Spacenut's topic:
"Earth's Oceans Explored -but why not colonized".I guess I will ask the question in turn:
"Mars Oceans may have existed, why not recreate them to habitate?"
I don't have a prediction for Water resources or Aerospace or Textiles or Education or Domestic Goods...I think that is too hard to predict at the moment and the US has no real political commitment to Mars.
Some people were sure NASA would get there first, they were certain NASA would always dominate once they beat the Russians to the Moon, others did not prediction a rise of China's program, some believe a corporation like Space-X will dominate Mars will others think there would be an interntaional effort, with different groups maybe claiming their own part of MArs or working together?
The Lunar Gatewat has since become a part of the Mars vision although some still call for a Mars-Direct move.
Settlement diesign is also an interesting discussion 15 pages
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=9849&p=14
There have been discussion of Nuclear Mobiles or vehicles that look like old retro 1950s concepts of Ford Nucleons
Air. Shelter. Water. Food.
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=7687
this thread is a long read its 20 + pages but worthwhile
Domes
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=253
Here is an old topic on Domed Habitats, it might be outdated since it was published during the Bush years and the vision for the Moon and Mars just before the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster, the private sectors wasnt really a thing and this discussion happened and as the Chinese were about to launches their new ambitions for space.
Some discussion and posts are stil relevant,
here are some quotes from other threads
...
Some even argued the military should run affairs on Mars?
What if Mars develops its own Culture, not English not Chinese, but their own mix of langauges it might even be a mix of French and Polish or whatever?
Would the US Constitution or Corporate culture or Socialism or Religion be exported to Mars?
Or would the nation that lands on Mars make sure their culture survives?
IMHO, it's rather tough to control what language people speak. Usefulness usually precedes standard. I know it from near because I'm french, my wife is polish, & we speak together in english. that is, each year God makes, the "english" is more & more polluted by Polish or french words, or even sentence structures. My own daughter is perfectly biligual, yet clueless in english(age 6).
Therefore I've read quite a few books on the topic, and my uneducated guess is that there will be a local pidgin for Martians, a kind of mix between origin languages, plus new words specific to local conditions. Later it should evolve in a creole, and, finally, after a few centuries, in a full language, as wicked as current ones. I don't believe in a standardized, simple language like esperanto, for the very reason that useful languages evolve as quick as their environment. Whatever the original language.
we even had some 'politically incorrect' discussion on what makes 'The Right Stuff'?
How is it that the Eskimos managed to survive in the Arctic long before snowmobiles or Home Depot ever existed?
Were they specially selected for their IQ?
Why do you think you would be an "active danger" to anyone?
What makes you think you couldn't be trained to overcome any lack of knowledge?
What is more unique about living on Mars than, say, living in a submarine?
We train everyone we put on submarines. They do tend to be reasonably intelligent, but not substantially more intelligent than any random person selected from society. They do have other personality attributes that are selected for, such as refusing to give up, even when the outcome is certain. This is because submariners are a cross-section of society.
Can we put someone on a submarine who is severely mentally retarded? Probably not, at least not with good results. If we have to transport someone by submarine who is mentally retarded, then we'll have someone stay with them at all times, but we're not going to eject them out of a torpedo tube because they don't fully understand the machine they're living in.
I see no problem with a Mars expedition crew operating drones or rovers from Mars orbit. But, that does presume you (at least initially) base from orbit, not direct landing from transit. That does require the old 1950's notion of an orbit-to-orbit transport, equipped with multiple landers.
My mission concepts update that ancient concept. It does have considerable merit, even today.
I've had a dim view of the Chinese space program since it was started.
I mean you might/should be able to get 100 kWe out of a 1 tonne nuclear battery. I don't know what the Russians have actually gotten though.
Most space reactors don't involve launching them with substantially radioactive cores though. The idea is usually to turn them on once they're safely in space.
Another approach involves three main factors. Tightening the flow of immigrants from the region, actively working to assimilate them into our culture (no more welfare applications in Arabic) and working to mold that culture in its homelands, a process involving many angles on its own, only rarely resorting to military force.
Islam is not a race or ethnicity, Josh. Islam is a religion, meaning it makes claims about the nature of reality and how human beings should act. As such, insulting Islam is on par with insulting, oh, Communism, another poisonous ideology that the world will be much better off without.
I don't really see how transporting the nitrogen from Venus to Mars in gasbags is feasible. Gasbags are too fragile; a single micrometeorite (and there are MANY between Venus and Mars) would puncture the gasbag, and suddenly the whole shebang would empty like a runaway balloon. No gasbag would make it to Mars.
Another possibility is freezing the nitrogen in Venus orbit into solid chunks -- 100% nitrogen asteroids -- and then push them onto a trajectory for Mars. Put a homing beacon on them to track them for extra logistic control.
If necessary, they can be broken into smaller chunks with weaponry when they're on final approach towards Mars. Then just plunge to the planet, aerobrake -- ideally, chunks sized so that they never hit the surface, but are vaporized into the atmosphere by the friction of aerobraking.
The thin winds of Mars do not carry much energy, the Sun is half again as far away from Mars as it is from Earth. One could also argue that the Sun might be a good source of energy as far out as Jupiter if you had enough solar collectors. If you could make the atmosphere of Mars much thicker, you would need a lot of energy to do that. Even if the atmosphere were as thick as Earth's the weaker rays from the Sun won't drive the Martian winds as hard as they do on Earth. We probably will have harnessed other sources of energy by the tie we terraformed Mars. By that time, any chunk of ice or hydrocarbons that contained hydrogen, would be a source of energy.
What is the best source of Nitrogen for Mars? Is it Titan?
Even encounters with millimeter scale particles are extreamly infrequent in space. Especialy interplanetary space. There is simply an extreamly large amount of space and a small amount of matter to fill it. You're just not likely to encounter any signifigant particles of any size. "Cosmic dust" is non existant, unless you are referring to the stray particles the sun spews out. This "dust" is realy just a sprinkling of stray nuclei, and hardly worth worring about.
I've noticed that in China, people die in mining accidents, and endure unsafe conditions in factories all the time. I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese try something as risky as Mars direct.
Space x is a corporate and that is not a Nasa.
Nasa can purchase the ride up and down from space x but they do not own the rocket as that is still the corporate property.
Space x can not tell Nasa or its people that use the rocket what they are going to do during the duration that its in use as they are the employee's of Nasa.
Now a corporate owned mission sets all the rules of those that ride and work for the corporation.
Long-distance electric power transmission is in some ways easier on Mars. With high voltage DC, we could in fact build a truly global grid. Martian nighttime temperatures can reach -90°C even at the equator and regolith under near vacuum conditions is an excellent insulator. High temperature super conductors are a more promising option for long distance power transmission on Mars compared to Earth. Ultimately, it may turn out that a heavily populated Mars will choose to exploit the economies of scale offered by a global grid and construct multi-GW fusion powerplants Close to the poles, using ice as a heat sink. Likewise, eventually a global pipeline system may allow air and water to be transported globally, such that individual colonies are not so critically dependant on the functionality of their own life support systems. Time will tell.
Where is a young child safer - on a small fishing vessel, or on a cruise ship?
If something goes wrong in a single family homestead, the adults are going to have their hands full fixing the problem. Meanwhile little Jimmy is wandering off to play with the airlock, because no-one can keep an eye on him.
If something goes wrong in a Martian village, the people who's designate job it is to fix the problem will be fixing the problem. If things go really wrong, the village can spare a few adults to watch the children in the emergency shelters whilst the others go and patch up the hole in the habitat, or whatever the issue is. If Jimmy wanders off, he's going to be spotted by someone else long before he can do any damage. A village of say 500 can also afford a doctor - not just seeing one via satellite, but an actual in person doctor.
My point being, the Martian environment is not friendly to tiny groups that want to spread out and build homesteads and hamlets. The near vacuum means that people will be living close together, in rowhomes and apartments to maximise the use of the costly pressurised space. The difficulty travelling means that you want to be near other people, because you can't easily drive over to see them when you need to. The harsh environment means that you need a broad set of skills to stay alive, skills which even if you have in a tiny group will see survival sometimes be a full time job that takes away from important things like stopping little children from accidentally killing themselves.
All this to say, Martian colonisation is going to be a lot more like Classical Greece than the American West, with cities establishing new cities rather than settlers spreading out and finding somewhere to stop and farm. It will select for being able to live together in a dense settlement, not sprawling across the landscape. Because it's harsh, and lethal, and you can't afford to only rely on yourself.
I had the choice of Life support systems: The problems of producing food, air and water on Mars or of Science, Technology, and Astronomy:
It doesn't have to be about Mars!And after a bit its now in life support....
ECTFE and similar polymers require a supply of Fluorine containing rocks to be located, mined and processed. I assume there will not be much difficulty getting Chlorine from the regolith, even if there are no massive salt deposits to hand.
The availability of Fluorine came up in the discussion on terraforming using greenhouse gasses.
For what one vote out of 8 billion might be worth, I'm in favor of re-designing the ISS for perpetual renewal.
The MIR and Tiangong model (and Skylab, come to think of it) are enough examples of experimental structures to satisfy most people.
It's time to start planning for perpetual life of space assets, and that means replace modules. The vehicle combination (station) must be designed from the beginning to be refurbished.
If the Russian module is approaching end-of-life, that does not mean the station is. It is possible it is the Nation that is becoming tired of holding up it's end of the bargain after so many changes over the decades.
If diplomacy has any value in this situation, I'd recommend attempting to persuade the Russians to renew their commitment to the joint endeavor.
The US long ago drove China away due to concerns about communism. The obvious result is that the Chinese long ago abandoned any prospect of being partners in the space exploration enterprise.
The best I think we can hope for is to ** try ** for compatible docking equipment.
(th)
There are parts which could be used for the lunar gateway sooner rather than later but will they since when Nasa is done with anything is to let it burn up on the way down.....
We have talked about RV'ing around mars, using nuke power vehicles, using inflateable habitats and even the tuna can landers but we only seem to have focused on getting from a base to another by these other methods and not really moving the base with you
Of course that base will be a minimal but functional for survival type.
Tea would need to be grown in pressurised, heated greenhouses on Mars. It isn't just a case of overcoming transport costs. Even if transport costs from Earth to Mars, were zero and vice versa, the difficulties imposed by the Martian environment would make it more expensive to carry out any activity there compared to any location on Earth.
One advantage Mars does have that is tangible: A much shallower gravity well. The propulsive effort required to reach Earth orbit from Mars surface, is lower than it is from Earth surface. And a large fraction of the propulsion can be low-thrust. Mars has a definite gravitational competitive advantage in producing finished goods and commodities that are intended for use in any location outside of Earth's atmosphere. Ultimately, even Mars grown food may be cheaper in Earth orbit, than Earth food that must be lifted through a 10+km/s delta-V at high thrust. That is the singular advantage that a Mars colony can exploit in terms of producing exports for profit. And aside from novelty value, it is the only advantage that a Mars colony has over an analogous colony built in Earth's polar regions. If you are looking for export opportunities, this is predominantly where they are to be found.
There may be a few other niches, where direct export to Earth surface may be competitive. Deuterium, for example. Mars also contains meteorite materials in a geologically unaltered state. These contain platinum group metals in higher abundance than terrestrial ores. But by and large, there are few export opportunities to Earth surface. I'm not convinced that Mars will become a prime filming location. CGI can replicate the surface quite convincingly.
With china going it alone for its own space station even if its only a few modules its still would make those that have had to partner seem less capable...
Here's another report, as a follow up to Mars_B4_Moon Post
The new superconducting magnet is reported to achieve 20 Tesla.
Trying to merge this magnet type with a plasma chamber remains ahead.
Ballistic delivery as envisaged here works, if you aerobrake to about local Mach 2.5 to 3. If the ballistic coefficient is high, you will be under 5 km altitude and seconds from impact at this point.
You will smack the surface of Mars at about 0.6 to 0.7 km/s, which is more than fast enough to convert KE into a really hot, shock-wave-driven fireball. Your payload will be fragmented into shrapnel, and part of it will be vaporized. Unless you add a solid braking rocket to reduce velocity down around 100-200 mph.
If your ballistic coefficient is low, you come out of aerobraking higher up, hopefully above 10 km. A supersonic chute could hold you at or near Mach 1 at impact, maybe a minute later. That would be something near 250 m/s, or in the vicinity of 500 or 600 mph. You don't get the shock fireball. You still get a bunch of fragmentation, but not any noticeable vaporization.
Solid raw materials like steel ingots could be delivered that way, but not finished steel shapes (which would be destroyed upon impact).
and discussion of trade with the Moon or a Venus station or outer realms like the Asteroids, Europa and Titan.
There are also possible new break through in particle physics or A.I computing software learning or a possible fusion age that might lie ahead of us.
Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2021-11-19 11:00:31)
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The white paper indicates a need for a first landing of cargo is a trial 2024 to say we have a proof of landing concept if successful on the landing to give a boot strap of 2 rockets with a max payload to the surface upward of 300mT. That paper also concludes that a pre-prepared landing site is needed is required for sustainability.
There is no indication that the ship count per each mission launch window will increase in this white paper. Its first human mission starts with a crew of 10 - 20 but is not indicated when that should happen or how large each successive crew sizing will increase. That leaves 7 missions remaining after the first few to do the build up.
That leaves a priority of the above list for buildup with the most critical being required.
I believe these are the top priorities...
2. Agriculture - A full range of food crops will be produced: salad vegetables, grains, fruit, beans, pulses etc. No animal farming will yet be undertaken (meat is imported).
5. Construction - Using ISRU bricks, basalt, cement, concrete, glass, 3D printing techniques, Mars dust-sourced “rubber” and steel frames, the Mars settlement is able to construct its own habs for accommodation, farming and industry.
9. Energy - Mars now has a well developed energy sector based on PV power systems, solar reflectors,, chemical batteries, differential heat engines and methane/hydrogen production Virtually all elements of the energy system can now be produced with ISRU on Mars, although PV film is still being imported from Earth.
8. Electrical - The settlement is producing a range of chemical batteries, some of which are being used to power the Base Zone rovers and to even out power over a sol. The settlement is now able to produce cable – plastic covered copper wiring. Most copper wiring is being produced from recycled materials but some is being sourced from meteorites on the surface of Mars.
10. Food processing – Food processing is becoming a more important activity. Some chilled meals and prepared salads are being produced. Nearly all food processing is automated. Food is refrigerated, turned into powder form, and frozen.
11. Life Support - Life support (water, air and temperature control) is a key industry that generates income e.g. through sale to Universities, TV companies and space agencies.
15. Transport - Mars is now able to produce its own rovers rather than having to import them. Small pressurised Rovers are used to transfer from one hab to another with ease (it taking only five minutes to exit through air lock chambers. The vehicles are kept small in order that airlocks can be on a small scale as well. Longer range rovers use methane and oxygen as their power systems.
16. Water - Water is mined at large glaciers or ice deposits and transported in robot rovers to the Base where it is stored in shaded and regolith covered storage pits. Water recycling is a feature of nearly all processes.
Of course the remaining are the next tier of growth in that second 20 year as you continue to build up non returning crews.
1. Aerospace - Rocket hoppers and orbital rockets are now being produced. The base will have a dedicated Spaceport. A range of rocket fuels, such as LOX and methane will be produced.
3. Chemical industry – The community’s ability to process and manipulate a wide range of materials will be in place. The settlement can produce Mars ISRU feedstock for plastics. Very pure silicon can be produced for electronics, computers and PV panels.
4. Computers - The settlement is now able to produce basic computers which it is applying to life support systems.
6. Domestic goods - The settlement is able to produce refrigerators, freezers, ovens, cookers, hobs, plumbing parts, kitchen utensils, cooking ware, basic furniture, hygiene products (such as soap and toothpaste).
7. Education and research - An Earth-based University has established a Research Centre on Mars which is part of the base and forms an important part of the economy.
8. Electrical - The settlement is producing a range of chemical batteries, some of which are being used to power the Base Zone rovers and to even out power over a sol. The settlement is now able to produce cable – plastic covered copper wiring. Most copper wiring is being produced from recycled materials but some is being sourced from meteorites on the surface of Mars.
9. Energy - Mars now has a well developed energy sector based on PV power systems, solar reflectors,, chemical batteries, differential heat engines and methane/hydrogen production Virtually all elements of the energy system can now be produced with ISRU on Mars, although PV film is still being imported from Earth.
12. Metal industry - This is an important sector, producing steel supports for construction, steel tools for farming, steel bars and suspension springs for rovers. Steel is used to produce gas cylinders and gas tanks. Aluminium is used in construction of airlocks and pressure cabins.
13. Pharmaceuticals - This industry is at quite a primitive level. The community is only just beginning to produce basic medicines and other health products such as paracetamol, some vitamins and minerals.
14. Textiles - Basic clothing – cotton T shirts and trousers - are being produced. Plans are in place for production of Mars ISRU space suits.
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For Mars_B4_Moon re #2
You have outdone your previous record for bringing archived forum discussion into a single coherent post!
SearchTerm:Awesome performance by Mars_B4_Moon November 2021
It was ** really ** fun (for me for sure) to see all those names brought together in a single post!
(th)
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Hacking On Mars In “The Martian”
https://hackaday.com/2017/06/30/hacking … e-martian/
NASA awards contracts for commercial spacesuits for ISS, Moon
https://www.spaceflightinsider.com/orga … -iss-moon/
NASA outsources $3.5 billion contracts for next-generation spacesuits
https://www.nashobavalleyvoice.com/2022 … pacesuits/
Perhaps you will need a Chinese dictionary to find your way around the colonized streets??
Will China have a cultural influence on Mars?
Tech Digest daily roundup: China brings forward plans for solar plant in space
https://www.techdigest.tv/2022/06/tech- … space.html
China's plans to go to the Moon, Mars and beyond
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-61511546.amp
Tiangong will have its own power, propulsion, life support systems and living quarters.
China is only the third country in history to have put both astronauts into space and to build a space station, after the Soviet Union (and now Russia) and the US.
Chinese astronauts are excluded from the ISS because US law bans its space agency, Nasa, from sharing its data with China.
China's plans to reach the Moon and MarsChina's ambitions do not end there.
A few years from now it wants to take samples from asteroids near the Earth.
By 2030, it aims to have put its first astronauts on the Moon, and to have sent probes to collect samples from Mars and Jupiter.
Three Astronauts Just Arrived on China's Space Station to Spend 6 Months Completing It
https://www.sciencealert.com/chinese-as … ce-station
Chinese carmaker Geely joins SpaceX in low-Earth orbit satellite race
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/c … llite-race
Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2022-06-10 07:08:52)
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A place of study and science like the South Pole or will other cultures and crew arrive with their customs
Antarctic Dry Valleys haven't always been dry, study suggests
https://phys.org/news/2023-05-antarctic … avent.html
Chinese official 'Handover ceremony'
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What culture will arrive first?
Space Race: are China and the US locked in a battle for space dominance?
https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/spac … -dominance
China's first civilian taikonaut ignites young generation's dreams of space and beyond
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202306/1292611.shtml
China attracts moon base partners, outlines project timelines
https://spacenews.com/china-attracts-mo … timelines/
What NASA is planning for Mars exploration
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poli … xploration
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