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Gilbert Levin, the investigator who came up with the Viking Labeled Release experiment, still believes that his experiment detected life. It would be easy to dismiss Levin as an old man who wants to be immortalized in his final days with the greatest discovery of the 20th century. However, Levin's arguments are pretty water-tight:
1) There is no perceived lack of water on Mars to rule out the existence of life. On certain days, the temperature and atmospheric pressure exceed the triple point of water, making it possible for subsurface ice to emerge in the regolith as liquid water. It is worth noting that Viking landed on an area that is believed to hold subsurface ice.
2) The mass spectrometer on board Viking, which didn't measure any organic molecules and thus "ruled out life," was not very reliable. In tests with Antarctic samples, the Labeled Release experment was able to detect microbes while the mass spectrometer couldn't.
These findings would not have been possible w/o Mars Pathfinder & Odyssey to confirm features about the atmosphere and soil of Mars. The question now is how long it will take for somebody to verify the results. I'm predicting that Mars Express will find life in 2004; if not, it might have to wait until MSR in 2016-2018 or even until humans land on Mars.
Solar arrays present a problem for the proposed flight to Mars because they will require many spacewalks and robotic servicers to assemble. As the ISS has proven, assembling large solar arrays will take a lot of time and money. A nuclear reactor, on the other hand, can be launched in one piece. I also refute claims that a space reactor will be difficult and expensive to develop--the United States flew one in the 1960's and the Soviets flew at least eight, including one that accidentally re-entered over Canada.
The newly-published drawings do a good job of illustrating the Mars mission. I see that there is no Venus fry-by involved; however, use of ion engines instead of chemical or nuclear-thermal engines adds three months onto transit time. The vehicle would also need Energia production to restart, which is unlikely given the dismantled state of the Energia assembly line.
I also think that solar panels are impractical and that the design team was pushed away from nuclear power due to political considerations. Although engineers generally have great faith in nuclear power, the general public does not consist of engineers, and they fear this efficient and relatively clean source of power.
I've also thought about a plug-nozzle for the hab lander that will serve as de-orbit engine, heat shield, and landing engine. The plug nozzle was a concept that was tested in the 1960's and featued prominently in Phillip Bono's designs for single stage rockets. It was also known as an annular aerospike.
Lockheed Martin and Boeing resurrected the idea for the X-33 as the linear aerospike. They did away with the heat shield requirements and arranged the combustion chamber in two rows rather than a ring. Work on this engine has stopped, so it doesn't look good for using an aerospike for the first trip to Mars.
I think that your proposal is a good one under the existing treaties. The only area where I would quibble is the "no weapons" clause. I think that "weapon" is ill-defined, as any heavy or sharp object can be used as a weapon. Furthermore, it is inevitable that there will be crime on Mars, and some weapons should be available to the police and citizens so they can defend their colonies.
Of course, your proposal was designed to work under the existing treaties. However, the Moon Treaty was never ratified by a majority of UN members (or any space-faring nations), and I have stressed before that I'd like to see the Outer Space Treaty amended. But these political issues must be solved by the UN and by the Mars-faring nations before colonization begins.
Thanks for the warm greetings, fellow posters. A warm ray of sunshine in my dreary life... :-)
I read that and I'm quite mad. Whatever happened to Von Braun's vision of a man on Mars by 1983? America has lost its will to dream and to accomplish the grand feats that would immortalize our culture.
It will take nothing short of a discovery like life on Mars to get our stagnant space program to change course. Say what you will about Richard C. Hoaglund; at least he's keeping people interested in Mars. Polls show that only 35% or so of Americans want to put men on Mars. When interest is so low, is it any wonder why Mars is so low on Washington's priorities list?
Right now it sounds too good to be true, but I'm still hopeful that something will result from this research.
There are a number of means that have been suggested for manipulating gravity. Einstein's withdrawn "Unified Field Theory" supposedly provided the secrets for doing so. There is also the controversial "Townsend-Brown Effect," which was demonstrated by small, electrified "flying saucers" during one experiment during the 1950s.
One of the least well-defined aspects of Mars Direct, at least from what I've read in "Case for Mars," is the descent to the Martian surface from orbit. I'm assuming that it will follow the same profile as all previous Mars landers: retro-rocket fires and falls away. Spacecraft enters Mars's atmosphere, protected by heatshield. Parachute deploys, heat shield is released. Braking engine fires just prior to landing.
This would all be fine, except that the aerobrake (assuming an unfurling, hemispherical shield) would have to protect the retro-rocket during aerocapture. Of course, other designs such as the NASA DRM have integrated the aerobrake with the lander's skin. Stil, I think that this expendable stack of heat shields and engines is inefficient.
I'm imagining an alternative lander shaped similarly to the McDonnell Douglas Delta Clipper (or a missile re-entry vehicle, for that matter.) it would enter the Martian atmosphere nose-first, before re-orienting itself using RCS thrusters and making a powered landing on the same engines used for the retro-fire burn.
I think that this approach is elegant, but it is untested. Before it can be added to Mars Direct, a sub-orbital demonstration of this type of lander must be made on earth. It would go one step beyond the DC-X test flights. My hope is that the Mars Society will recognize the need for this landing system and form a partnership with somebody to carry out these tests.
I think that NASA is having fun by screwing with Richard C. Hoaglund.
We got the infrared images of Cydonia after quite a delay. However, these images are daytime images, which aren't very different from visible-light images. Hoaglund is waiting for the nighttime images, which he believes will be quite different. Parts of the face (such as an underlying structure) will radiate heat differently than others. Hoaglund claims to have "White House sources" that have indicated to him that the image does exist, but NASA does not want to release it because it would point to an alien presence on Mars. I think that the American people need to get on NASA's case to release the image, if only for the fact that a taxpayer-funded organization is holding out on them.
This forum can do without the ad hominem arguments and personal attacks. I can see an opportunity for tyranny on Mars under the scenarios this thread has discussed, but I'm certain that any peace-loving and democratic republic will put safeguards in place to prevent a non-benevolent dictatorship from coming to power and killing off vast numbers of Martians.
I can't say with certainty that Martian colonies will be American dominated, or even practice a lifestyle that is similar to that of America. It depends on whether the initial landings are conducted by America, an international effort, or by a corporate venture.
On the subject of terminating life support, I'd just like to say that I hope Martians will come to respect and protect human life from conception until natural death. I hope that they do not turn to Malthusian population control, and that they can come up with better deterrents to crime and civil disobediance than terminating life support.
I just wanted to clear up some confusion that's been going on in this thread:
1) There are two different projects going on at Woomera: the Australian HyShot scramjet and the Japanese NEXST supersonic transport.
2) The full-scale NEXST will not be rocket boosted if it is ever built. It will take off and land in the same way any other airliner would. The test that ended in embarassing failure was used to push a 1:10 scale model to supersonic speeds to determine the airworthiness of the design and to measure the effects (if any) of the plane's sonic boom. Fortunately, the plane was relatively intact, and it will hopefully fly again.
Hope this answered any questions the members may have.
Definitely "The X-Files." The show was believable, the plots were intriguing, and Chris Carter's extensive use of cliffhangar endings just made you want to watch more. I especially liked how the writers worked spirituality and faith into the storylines of many episodes. The only problem with calling X-Files "Science Fiction" is that the show became a little too real for some people (ones whose names rhyme with 'Richard Hoaglund.'))
The only economical way to launch missions to Mars in the near term is with a partially-reusable launcher. Fully expendable ones are to expensive to support high flight rates, while fully reusable ones will cost too much to develop and take too long to design and test. Buzz Aldrin's company, Starbooster Inc., has several partially-reusable designs on their drawing boards. One of them is the Starlifter, with a payload similar to Zubrin's Ares but using reusable, flyback boosters. At some point in the future, these boosters can be mated with a fully reusable core.
From an engineering standpoint, it will be impossible to conduct a fully reusable mission to Mars on our first try. Of course, certain parts of the mission can be designed for reuse. These include the habitat lander (as a backup habitat for a future crew), nuclear transfer vehicles, the earth return capsule, and flyback boosters on the launch vehicle. But designing for full reusability will be too tall a hurdle for the engineering community.
After mankind has made a few landings on Mars, you just might see full reusability. A cycler, built from a shuttle ET and using some form of electric propulsion, will travel continually between earth and Mars. A National Aerospace Plane will ferry astronauts from earth to the cycler, and NIMF hoppers will ferry astronauts between the cycler and Mars.
*Those are the key words in your quote -- PRIVATE enterprise. If Bill Gates, Donald Trump, and some oil sheik from the Middle East dripping gold and oil want to use THEIR OWN money -- combined with the funds of private investors -- to build luxury hotels which only the super-rich and elite can afford, go right ahead.
I think that many of the posters here have the right idea, IMHO, about the nature of space. NASA is here to explore, to "push the envelope." Private enterprise has the duty of going in NASA's footsteps. Until now that hasn't happened; NASA hasn't extensively explored Mars, while private industry has neglected the moon and barely has a foothold in earth orbit. Before Gates or Trump can dream of going to the moon, smaller but progressively more challenging steps must be taken. Private industry might be making suborbital flights within a few years. After the suborbital space tourism market is successful, you just might see orbiting space hotels and moon bases.
An organized government is essential to Keeping the peace on Mars. The question is, who will govern Mars? The UN is an option, but I feel that the UN suffers from too much bureaucratic bloating and corruption to do the job. Rule of Mars by the Martians, as Zubrin advocates, would be ideal, but it will not happen until Martians are self-sufficient. The best initial form of government for Mars, then, would be government by the countries that colonize Mars. Each colony would apply the laws of its mother nation and organize a police force accordingly. It remains to be seen whether the federal government would step in ( in cases similar to the Oklahoma slave master) because of the distances between Earth and Mars. But I have a feeling that Martian authorities will have a great deal of autonomy from their earthly counterparts, much as the American colonial governors did prior to the French & Indian War.
Returning to the moon is not a necessity for going to Mars, but in many ways it would be a good primer for Mars Direct. Robert Zubrin has pointed out on many occasions how Mars Direct could be used to support long duration stays on the moon. I'm thinking that, if Mars Direct becomes the baseline for a humans-to-Mars effort, the hardware should first be taken on a "shakedown cruise" to the moon. That way the life support system could be tested at a distance that is a three day trip from earth. Humans can also conduct biological tests in a reduced gravitational field that is half of Mars's gravity.
*Thank you for the answer
What is "RMS speed"?
RMS speed is our expression for the velocity of gas particles as they move around in their chaotic way. According to Dr. Zubrin, Mars has sufficient gravity to support an earthlike atmosphere, so there's no need to worry about that aspect of terraforming.
Gravity has a lot to do with what type of atmosphere a planet will have, if any. The RMS speed of the gas molecules in the planet's atmosphere must be lower than the escape velocity of the planet. Becuase Pluto has less gravity (and, as a result, a lower escape velocity,) its atmosphere would be thin to say the least. Of course, at Pluto's distance from the sun, the atmosphere solidifies as it moves toward aphelion.
The most important thing mankind should remember when terraforming is not to be too hasty in choosing a time to begin. Most people are restrained enough to say, "let's look for life and make sure the planet is dead before we begin to terraform." But at what point do we give up the search for life and declare the planet dead? Mars is a large world, and it will take years to establish an answer to that question. Even if we spend thirty years looking for life and find nothing, there is nothing to say that Mars didn't support life at some point in the past, whether it was extinct Martian life or extraterrestrial transients. Terraforming could destroy this evidence we had been looking for. Although most of us agree on terraforming, I think that the decision on when to change Mars from "red" to "green" will have to wait for some time, perhaps until the 22nd century.
The debate on Capitol Hill and within NASA is whether a nuclear-ion probe or a conventional one will be sent to Pluto. Although the conventional one would be available for flight by 2004, one with an Ion engine would be able to speed continuously toward Pluto with no gravity slingshot, and it could enter Pluto's orbit instead of making a brief flyby.
The scientific community supports the conventional probe while NASA's administration wants the ion-propelled one. The Bush administration has, unfortunately, pushed to kill the conventional probe, and a small amount of funding from Congress has kept the effort on life support. I think that it is in the best interests of science to send BOTH probes, and to get the conventional one there as soon as possible.
As for selling organs, I would imagine that this wouldn't be as necessary if more people held donor cards, which would allow their organs to be transplanted after death. I personally advocate the introduction of an opt-out system for donor cards, rather than the current opt-in system.
An assumed donor system, in which organs can be donated unless the dying person says otherwise, is much better than the system used in the United States. I know that many European countries have assumed-donor programs, but I'm not certain as to which countries do practice this policy.
Until recently, I've never thought of Mars Direct as a plan that could be adopted to a Sagan-like, international approach to Mars exploration. The crew size was too small to allow for true diversity, and the price was affordable enough for the United States to launch it alone. But the recent study by Russia's Space Agency has made me reconsider an international approach.
The Russian Space Program has many advantages over NASA's current program. Russians hold the records for the longest manned spaceflights, and the Russian aerospace industry has unparalleled experience with building space habitats. An enlarged Soyuz capsule would be perfect for MD, and only the Russians could build one quickly (unless Boeing could ressurect Apollo in a hurry.) The Russian RD-170 is still the most powerful engine in production. And all of the nuclear thermal rockets NASA is currently studying are based on a Russian design.
European and Japanese cooperation could also be useful. For instance, the ESA's spaceport in French Guiana is the ideal place to launch Ares.
To avoid the problems that have beset the ISS, an international Mars expedition should be organized by corporate entities, not the foreign governments. If Boeing and Energomash formed an alliance, for example, they could sell payload space on board the lander for experiments from NASA, ESA, and other space agencies. The profits from these experiments, in addition to a cash prize from the U.S. government would fund the mission.
This new plan actually combines the "Gingrich Model" and the "Sagan Model." However, today's current state of financial instability and America's timidness in space just might warrant this approach.
I had read somewhere that Translife would be conducted onboard the ISS because it would be cheaper (and better/faster ?) than launching an independent bio-satellite on a Russian SLBM. Of course, the teams involved are also planning a free-floating version of the spacecraft in case ISS doesn't pan out. As currently envisioned, ISS astronauts will only be able to devote 20 hours/week for science until the station'scapacity is expanded in 2009.