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#101 Re: Human missions » Problems with Humans on Mars » 2008-05-22 05:54:24

Trying to predict the future is difficult, but saying that robotic camera technology twenty years from now won't be able match what can apparently be done today on Earth with a $10,000 camera, seems very short sighted.

As to how many six crew EVAs will be possible over a 500 day mission; if the Apollo guys really were referring to doing that on Mars over a 500 day mission, then fine let's assume 1500 (250x6) EVAs.

The discussion was about the cost of developing a capability to put humans on Mars. As the effort to develop that capability has barely started, the cost clearly lies ahead - it is not sunk cost today. Neither does it include the cost of Apollo or ISS. Today it will cost of the order of $300 billion to create that new capability. That obviously won't be included in the marginal mission cost, but it will be the equivalent comparative cost to developing robotic missions such as MSL ($2billion) or MSR ($4.5 billion)

Exploration cannot be measured in gigabytes either or even in (undefined units of) scientific knowledge. Exploration is about people being where people have never been before and experiencing what people have never experienced before. It's a distinct, independent goal, it's about discovery.

#102 Re: Unmanned probes » COROT - ESA-France exoplanet telescope » 2008-05-22 02:55:03

Exoplanet hunt update - 21 May 2008

Two new exoplanets and an unknown celestial object are the latest findings of the COROT mission. These discoveries mean that the mission has now found a total of four new exoplanets.

These results were presented this week at the IAU symposium 253 in Massachusetts, USA.

COROT has now been operating for 510 days, and the mission started observations of its sixth star field at the beginning of May this year. During this observation phase, which will last 5 months, the spacecraft will simultaneously observe 12 000 stars.

The two new planets are gas giants of the hot Jupiter type, which orbit very close to their parent star and tend to have extensive atmospheres because heat from the nearby star gives them energy to expand. 

In addition, an oddity dubbed ‘COROT-exo-3b’ has raised particular interest among astronomers. It appears to be something between a brown dwarf, a sub-stellar object without nuclear fusion at its core but with some stellar characteristics, and a planet. Its radius is too small for it to be a super-planet.

If it is a star, it would be among the smallest ever detected. Follow-up observations from the ground have pinned it at 20 Jupiter massses. This makes it twice as dense as the metal Platinum.

Scientists suspect that with the detection of COROT-exo-3b, they might just have discovered the missing link between stars and planets.

COROT has also detected extremely faint signals that, if confirmed, could indicate the existence of another exoplanet, as small as 1.7 times Earth’s radius.

This is an encouraging sign in the delicate and difficult search for small, rocky exoplanets that COROT has been designed for.

Disappointing results.

#103 Re: Human missions » International Space Station (ISS / Alpha) » 2008-05-22 02:38:35

Breakdown in life support system - crew forced to evacuate in Soyuz smile - 21 May 2008

Russian ASU Malfunction:    While using the ASU toilet system in the SM, the crew heard a loud noise and the fan stopped working.  After some troubleshooting the crew reported that the air/water Separator (MNR-RS) was not working.  The crew then replaced the separator with a spare unit but reported afterwards that the ASU lacked suction.  The crew next replaced the F-V filter insert, which provided good suction for a while but again exhibited weak suction.  TsUP/Moscow instructed the crew to deactivate the ASU and use the toilet facility in the Soyuz spacecraft.

#104 Re: Not So Free Chat » Current Gasoline/Petrol Price$ » 2008-05-22 02:27:25

The proof is in the price of gas and oil, it shouldn't go from $1.50 to $2 to $3 and then $4 per gallon all in a short period of time. If this was an efficient market with plenty of suppliers, there wouldn't be bottlenecks that can be manipulated by a few to produce vast gyrations in the price of gasoline and oil.

Oil is a basic commodity that can't be created. Production can't be quickly ramped up like the production of computers. Developing a new well can take several years if it's off shore. Refineries also take a long time to construct and become operational.

#105 Re: Unmanned probes » Phoenix - North Pole Region Lander (PHX) » 2008-05-22 02:06:43

228566main_image_1088_800-600.jpg

twitter update:

Navigation looks great & my Li-Ion batteries have been topped off in preps for landing. Hope to provide many more updates in next 3 days!

spacecraft status:

____Altitude above Mars: 862,000 km
__Distance to Landing: 6,900,000 km
____Speed relative to Mars: 9,641 km/h

Three days

#106 Re: Unmanned probes » Phoenix - North Pole Region Lander (PHX) » 2008-05-21 15:05:42

phxprelanding50mks2.jpg

Up-to-the-minute map of the Phoenix landing site - 20 May 2008 - Emily Lakdawalla

Since I was befuddled about what that meant about Phoenix' target location, I asked for help from Tim Parker at JPL, who is the acknowledged master of locating and mapping the landing sites of Mars missions, past and future. Tim graciously provided me with the map that he said he will be using on the day of the landing, which shows the current location of the 1, 2, and 3-sigma landing ellipses (for more on what that means, check out my entry with Rob Manning's explanations on that topic). And, for reference, he said that the target point is now 68.151 degrees north, 233.975 degrees east. I've updated my Phoenix landing site page accordingly.

#107 Re: Unmanned probes » Phoenix - North Pole Region Lander (PHX) » 2008-05-21 13:20:00

Ringside view during landing? - 19 May 2008

Leonard David

The May 25th entry into Mars’ atmosphere by the Phoenix lander may be under the watchful lens of NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO).

The MRO project has been investigating the possibility of imaging the Phoenix Mars lander during its entry, descent and landing period - as the probe plunges toward the red planet’s arctic region.

MRO would use its High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) gear in attempting to catch the Phoenix in action as it high-dives to its touchdown site.

“The attempt requires that Phoenix be in the HiRISE field of view at the very moment that it temporarily crosses Phoenix’s path,” James Erickson, MRO Project Manager at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory told me.

Erickson made it clear, however, that the degree of difficulty in such sharp-shooting is very high. “We currently believe the probability of acquiring this image is no better than 20 percent or so,” he explained.

Furthermore, MRO’s first priority, Erickson noted, is recording the UHF signal from Phoenix during entry, descent and landing. “We need to make sure that attempting the HiRISE image does not interfere with that,” he added.

A go/no-go decision on whether to try for the MRO image needs to be made later this week, Erickson said.

#108 Re: Not So Free Chat » Did Iran become a player in space ? » 2008-05-21 12:18:39

“there's no substantial evidence that Israel possesses nuclear weapons”

In 1974, Israeli President Ephraim Katzir said that "it has always been our intention to develop a nuclear potential ... We now have that potential."

On September 22, 1979, an American "Vela" satellite detected a distinctive double flash off the southern coast of Africa indicative of a nuclear test.

In 1985 Los Angeles businessman Richard Smyth was indicted for smuggling to Israel 810 krytrons switches used as nuclear weapon detonators

In September 1986, Mordecai Vanunu, an Israeli arms technician who had worked at the secret Dimona site for eight years, provided the London Sunday Times with a detailed account of Israel's nuclear weapon progress. including almost 60 color photographs of what he said was Israel's underground bomb factory.

He said that Israel had produced 100 to 200 fission bombs by 1986, had mastered a thermonuclear design, and appeared to have a number of thermonuclear bombs ready for use.

In 1998, former Prime Minister Shimon Peres said that Israel "built a nuclear option, not in order to have a Hiroshima but an Oslo." Peres, as Director General of the Ministry of Defense in the early 1950s, was responsible for building Israel's nuclear capability

And on and on.  It's not helpful to maintain a delusion.

The Samson Option, to bring down the whole world on our heads.  Or, "Never again."

None of that is convincing or substantial. It's clearly in Israel's interest to let its enemies think it has nukes, but do they? The apparent test in the South Indian ocean in 1979 was said to be a South African-Israeli, if so why hasn't the new South African government confirmed it? An option is not a bomb. They may be close to doing it, but holding back for fear of losing US support.

#109 Re: Unmanned probes » Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) - rover » 2008-05-21 11:13:51

MSL_20080512.jpg
Third-Generation Mars Rover Dwarfs Predecessors - 12 May 2008

Mars rovers appear to be shrinking with age! The biggest, baddest, newest rover being built is the Mars Science Laboratory rover (right). It's the size of a small sport-utility vehicle. Still exploring Mars four years after landing are the dune-buggy-sized rovers Spirit and Opportunity (left). The first-generation rover, Sojourner, is the size of a microwave oven.

Why are the rovers getting bigger? The answer is one word: science. The mass and volume of science instruments -- tools the rovers use to study the Martian surface and environment -- have remained fairly constant at about 10 percent. To determine if Mars ever could have supported life, the Mars Science Laboratory rover will travel farther, carry more instruments, and sample more rocks and soils than ever before. Like a car with more gizmos, the newest robotic beast has to evolve to carry all the gear!

#110 Re: Unmanned probes » Phoenix - North Pole Region Lander (PHX) » 2008-05-21 08:14:54

If she lands in a corn field, the SSI team would pick that up pretty damn quick smile They will characterize the local surrounding terrain, but the focus of the mission is under the surface. There's also a Meteorological Station that may be of interest to weather watchers. Any forecasts?

#111 Re: Unmanned probes » Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) & LADEE » 2008-05-21 08:02:52

NASA to Launch GRAIL Satellite on United Launch Alliance Delta II in 2011

DENVER, May 1 /PRNewswire/ -- NASA has designated the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission to fly aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II Heavy rocket. The launch will be provided under terms of a launch service agreement procured previously by NASA for this vehicle. The liftoff will occur from Space Launch Complex 17B, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla., in the third quarter of 2011.

Part of NASA's Discovery Program, GRAIL will fly twin spacecraft in tandem orbits around the moon for several months to measure its gravity field in unprecedented detail. The mission will also answer longstanding questions about Earth's moon and provide scientists a better understanding of how the Earth and other rocky planets in the solar system formed.

"We are pleased this unique mission to study the moon will launch on a Delta II Heavy vehicle," said Michael Gass, ULA president and chief executive officer. "Delta II is an exceptional product that provides the most cost effective assured access to space for medium class payloads. Delta II has served NASA's science community superbly for decades and will continue to serve our nation for many years to come."

NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., will manage the GRAIL mission, and Lockheed Martin Space Systems of Denver, Colo., will build the spacecraft. Scientists will use the gravity field information from the two satellites to X-ray the moon from crust to core to reveal the moon's subsurface structures and, indirectly, its thermal history.

#112 Re: Not So Free Chat » Current Gasoline/Petrol Price$ » 2008-05-21 07:55:03

One thing I must admit that even if were not running out of oil, the World supply of it is quite unreliable, and its price girates quite a bit. I don't really care if Saudi Arabia has a 100 year supply of crude oil, the problem is, as Winston Churchill said, is its concentration. Oil is concentrated in all the wrong places across the globe and it grants boons of cash to the undeserving, lazy, and violent.

Churchill would be wrong today. Oil production is worldwide, much of it outside the Middle East. The largest producer right now is Russia and there are big producers such as Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, China, Norway and of course the US. Next to Saudi Arabia, the second largest  reserves are in Canada. Are you calling the Canadians undeserving, lazy, and violent?  smile

#113 Re: Human missions » Problems with Humans on Mars » 2008-05-21 07:18:41

If we can assume that a future astronaut will  have a camera that can take a equivalent panorama in 17 minutes, then it's only fair to assume that a future robot will also have one.

On STS-123 shuttle astronauts did five EVAs within nine days, but an enormous amount of preparation was necessary and they had the support of three ISS crew and several other shuttle crew. It seems unlikely that a Mars crew could keep up that pace for a 500 day mission especially as they have to maintain their base, suits and health.

As I wrote earlier, one way of estimating the cost to develop the infrastructure to enable Mars missions is to add the current Lunar program ($104B), the Lunar Outpost (say $50 billion) and the cost of developing the extra vehicles and habitats (another $100 billion?) and add in the Mars robotic program say $10 billion more .. that's $264 billion. Yes it's a WAG but $30 billion is IMHO far too low.

The comparison discussion was focused on how much the Cape Verde panorama would cost if it was done by a human on Mars, of course considering all the other things that humans can do and as well as future robots will be capable of doing makes the picture, pun intended,  far more complicated.

It's about much more than collecting images, data or even samples, it's about human presence and experience, both that of the astronauts themselves and what they share with the entire world.

#114 Re: Unmanned probes » Phoenix - North Pole Region Lander (PHX) » 2008-05-21 02:26:31

Mars Express mission controllers ready - 20 May 2008

ESA's Mars Express mission control team are ready to monitor Phoenix's critical entry, descent and landing onto the Martian surface on 26 May 2008.

The Mars Express mission control team have completed major preparations for supporting the entry, descent and landing (EDL) phase of NASA's Phoenix mission to the Red Planet. On 25 May, Mars Express will point towards Phoenix's planned entry trajectory and record signals broadcast from the lander as it plunges through the Martian atmosphere.

The recorded data will serve as a useful and potentially crucial back-up to compare Phoenix's planned and actual descent profiles. Landing is planned for 23:38 UTC, 25 May, which is 01:38 CEST, 26 May. 

"We have tested a specially designed slew for our spacecraft, and scheduled a series of data downloads immediately after Phoenix's landing; NASA will receive our recorded data about one hour later," says Michel Denis, Spacecraft Operations Manager at ESOC, ESA's Space Operations Centre, Darmstadt, Germany.

The Mars Express team will monitor the event from the Dedicated Control Room at ESOC.

Effective reuse of on-board lander communications system

Mission controllers will use the MELACOM (Mars Express Lander Communications) system to point towards Phoenix during EDL; the radio instrument was originally intended for communications with the Beagle 2 lander.

Mars Express will perform a high-speed slew as MELACOM tracks Phoenix, rotating about one axis at a speed some two to three times faster than normal; this action has already been tested and confirmed. The orbit phasing of Mars Express was already adjusted at the end of 2007 to provide visibility to Phoenix.

Data recording is scheduled to begin at 23:21 UTC, and run for 26 minutes, until 23:47 UTC.

"Our MELACOM data will enable NASA to confirm the Phoenix lander's descent characteristics, including speed and acceleration through the Mars atmosphere," says Peter Schmitz, Deputy Spacecraft Operations Manager and project lead for Mars Express Phoenix support activities.

MELACOM data will be downloaded to Earth via NASA's Deep Space terminals DSS-15 and DSS-25. After a 15-minute, 20-second light-speed travel time, ESOC will receive the data transmitted from Mars Express, i.e. at 00:40 UTC ( 02:40 CEST). Recorded data will subsequently be downloaded two more times to ensure no loss of packets.

The ESA spacecraft will also fly over Phoenix's intended landing zone, beginning at 06:12 UTC (08:12 CEST) on 26 May and will again monitor signals transmitted up from the surface.

In the following week, Mars Express will monitor Phoenix using MELACOM 14 more times; at least one of these will be used to demonstrate and confirm that the ESA spacecraft can be used as a data relay station for NASA, receiving data from the surface and transmitting test commands to the lander.

Landing blogs

spacecraft status:

___Altitude above Mars: 1,000,000 km
__Distance to Landing:  8,800,000 km
____Speed relative to Mars: 9,626 km/h

Just 4 days

#115 Re: Not So Free Chat » Did Iran become a player in space ? » 2008-05-21 01:35:03

Firstly, there's no substantial evidence that Israel possesses nuclear weapons and if they do they are clearly useless against suicide bombers inside their country. If they exist they are also not a very effective deterrent against Iran as it continues to press ahead with its nuclear program while fighting a proxy war with Israel using Hezbollah, and promising to wipe Israel off the map.

Since its chaotic foundation was approved by the UN in 1947, Israel has been attacked by its neighboring states in several wars and suffered under continuous terrorism for 60 years. Israel is in a war for its survival. It's curious that only Israeli "crimes" and "atrocities" are mentioned by the the supporters of those who want to destroy Israel and never the context and the remorseless deliberate attacks on their citizens. The terrorists regard every Israeli, both adult and child, as valid targets and have said so many times. On the other hand Israel's reaction has been measured and as humane as possible given the barbaric violence used against them. One in six Israelis is Muslim, nearly all of them live peacefully with their Jewish and Christian neighbors.

#116 Re: Human missions » Near Earth Object (NEO) missions » 2008-05-21 00:58:20

Why would it be risky? Orion will be in exactly the same orbit as the asteroid so there should be almost no relative motion between them. Thrusters would only be needed to move Orion around the asteroid, once in place astronauts will be able to safely explore.

#117 Re: Unmanned probes » EPOXI - mission to Comet Hartley 2 & exoplanet telescope » 2008-05-20 05:22:27

Project homepage

current status - EPOCh updates

04.28.2008 Cooling Down
The spacecraft's signal strength has returned to expected performance after losing about 8dB during perihelion (closest point to the sun). At the end of last week, as the spacecraft cooled (a combination of moving further from the sun and all instruments being turned off), telemetry strength returned. Observations for EPOCh are scheduled to be resumed at the end of this week.

04.02.2008 EPOCh Observes X0-2
On March 28, EPOCh downlinked over 5000 photometric CCD frames of the metal-rich transiting planet system XO-2. The was the largest volume of data in a single downlink for EPOXI to date. Following this downlink, EPOCh observations have been paused, to investigate the cause of a weaker-than-normal downlink signal, and some slightly elevated temperatures on the spacecraft.

03.26.2008 EPOCh Observes TrES-3
EPOCh has recently completed observations of the massive hot Jupiter exoplanet, TrES-3 (pronounced "trace three"). After recovering from safe mode on March 6, EPOXI promptly observed 5 transits, and 6 secondary eclipses of TrES-3. On March 18, EPOXI observed the Earth for a full 24-hour rotational cycle, obtaining narrow-band visible images and infrared (1.5-4.5 micron) spectroscopy. The EPOCh science team will use the Earth data to define the properties of the "Earth-as-an-exoplanet", i.e. the rotational light curve of Earth's integrated light. This light curve should exhibit signatures due to cloud patterns and vegetation on the land masses, and similar signatures may eventually be observable for Earth-like exoplanets. On March 20, EPOXI turned to observe transits of the metal-rich giant planet system XO-2.

#118 Re: Not So Free Chat » Did Iran become a player in space ? » 2008-05-20 02:16:24

Calling Israel an apartheid regime is mild compared with the usual hysterical accusations of it being, of all things, a Nazi one. This is standard propaganda distributed by Israel's enemies, who will say and do absolutely anything to get more power. Truth is unimportant, what's important is the destruction of Israel and the final extermination of the Jewish people by any means possible.

#119 Re: Not So Free Chat » The Flag that Barack Obama won't wear » 2008-05-20 01:55:10

Inconsistent and hypocritical indeed. Who trusts that he really has the interests of his country at heart rather than deep rooted hatred? Hatred fostered by his long time racist friend and mentor, Jeremiah Wright, and all his other radical activist anti American friends.

#120 Re: Unmanned probes » Phoenix - North Pole Region Lander (PHX) » 2008-05-20 01:43:37

spacecraft status:

___Altitude above Mars: 1,300,000 km
__Distance to Landing: 10,700,000 km
____Speed relative to Mars: 9,614 km/h

Only 5 days now.

#121 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Ares V (CaLV) - status » 2008-05-20 01:36:08

Hi heroineworshipper and welcome!

That's the rub and the trade off between cost and capability. NASA has time to get it right as there's not enough funding to even begin preliminary design for years.

#122 Re: Human missions » Near Earth Object (NEO) missions » 2008-05-20 01:25:41

Page 17 of the study shows a "NEO science payload bay" located at the base of the SM, other SM concepts have a small unpressurized cargo bay near the CM.

The Lower Bookend mission graphic says that exploration would be done by a combination of EVA and robotics (see red box). Page 18 also shows a telerobotic system to replace the LIDS adapter. This suggests that Orion would stand off from the asteroid and maintain position with thrusters.

#123 Re: Human missions » STS-124 Discovery » 2008-05-19 15:16:03

'Go' for Space Shuttle Launch on May 31 - 19 May 2008

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. -- NASA senior managers completed a review Monday of space shuttle Discovery's readiness for flight and selected May 31 as the official launch date for the STS-124 mission. Commander Mark Kelly and his six crewmates are scheduled to lift off to the International Space Station at 5:02 p.m. EDT.

STS-124 Post-Flight Readiness Review News Conference - 19 May 2008 - video - 29 mins

... and questions about Soyuz investigation, STS-125, Ares I-X

#124 Re: Unmanned probes » Phoenix - North Pole Region Lander (PHX) » 2008-05-19 13:35:14

From an interview with Tom Pike, who is working on the microscope systems - 19 May 2008

[Question]
NASA is taking great care to explain and make clear this is NOT a mission that is “Looking for life”, although surely Phoenix is playing a vital part in the continuing quest to find life on Mars. All the mission literature makes it plain that Phoenix will not be sending back images of wriggly martian microbes, or fossils, but is that 1000% impossible? In an interview for Nature Network London in Aug 2007 you were asked: So if you hit jackpot, and there are micro-organisms in the samples, would you be able to distinguish between living and fossilized remains? And you said: “If life really is active in the samples we’re looking at, we would look for motion upwards or sideways on the substrates (not just settling under Martian gravity) by taking multiple exposures. We can do effectively time-lapse photography with the optical microscope and AFM. But it might be rather difficult to distinguish between microfossils and dormant spores. We’d be looking to have confirmation from the mass spectrometer of TEGA that there is organic material in the samples.” Does that mean there’s actually a chance Phoenix’s microscope might send us back pictures of something… amazing?

[Tom Pike]
Even if there ever was life on Mars the signature will take a great deal of work to recognise. Phoenix has some important tools to see how likely it might be that such a signature might even exist. But yes, we do have the capability of resolving down to the length scale of some microscopic organisms. Of course that’s no guarantee that we’ll see anything amongst the fine silt particles which actually set the resolution target of the microscope.

[Question]
On the STFC website you said “Nobody has looked at Mars at this type of resolution before. It is very difficult to predict what we might find, but if you wanted to look for signs of the earliest forms of past or present life we will be the first to look closely enough.” Does that mean you think that even if it doesn’t image wriggling martian beasties, the microscope could actually image micro-fossils or some other type of evidence for past life on Mars?

[Tom Pike]
Again, we have the possibility. Fossils are more likely than extant life – the best conditions for life there were several billion years ago. But even if the microfossils are there to be found, we may not be in the right place. On Earth the abundance of microfossils varies enormously - there is no guarantee of imaging them on a planet we know is teeming with life.

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