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#76 Re: Unmanned probes » 2007 Mars Scout » 2002-12-11 08:55:15

Space.com has a wonderful article explaining the four Mars Scout concepts, and after reading it I'm much more excited than before.

I'm pretty enthusiastic about Phoenix because it uses the 2001 Mars Lander, and it may help us to better categorize the chemistry of Martian soil in regions where liquid water may exist.  ARES is pretty cool, too, but I have questions about the effectiveness of unpowered gliders at surveying large land areas.

#77 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Nuclear Propulsion - The best way for space travel » 2002-12-09 08:35:57

What makes nuclear power so special?  In my mind, there are three things: energy density, no toxic chemical emissions, and dependability.  Coal has a decent energy density and it can be burned 24 / 7, but it's too bad for us and our environment.  Solar and wind, while the best for our environment, have poor energy densities, and they fluctuated based on the weather and time of day.

Energy density and dependability make nuclear power ideal for spaceflight.  It will be much cheaper and easier to put a reactor or two on your spacecraft instead of the colossal solar arrays (see the Energia plan for putting humans on Mars.) And batteries would be needed when the sun goes down, necessitating the use of heavy batteries to store the excess power generated during the day.

It's time to cut the crap.  Logic must emerge victorious over demogoguery.  Make mine nuclear power.

#78 Re: Unmanned probes » 2007 Mars Scout » 2002-12-07 08:14:42

With little fanfare, NASA selected four candidates for the 2007 Mars Scout missions.  The most exciting of the bunch is SCIM, which will bring a sample of Mars's atmosphere back to earth.

I'm a little disappointed that some more ambitious concepts (Mars glider, Mars balloon, or an orbiting Synthetic Aperture Radar) weren't picked.  But the new crop of missions still represents an inexpensive new way of exploring Mars.

#79 Re: Human missions » Mars Orbit Rendezvous - low-cost and reusable spacecraft » 2002-12-07 07:58:21

Once crew were onboard, the spacecraft would depart for Mars using electric propulsion. Whether the electric drive is ion, hall effect or magneto-plasma dynamic is a competition for engine designers.

That's a pretty big decision to make.  This summer's Russian proposal used ion engines, but it enabled a two-year mission with only 30 days to stay on Mars.  On the other hand, VASIMR plasma engines may allow 90-day transits each way with stay times of similar duration to the transit.  VASIMR is the more promising "high risk, high payoff" technology that will make Mars achievable.

#80 Re: Human missions » Mars Orbit Rendezvous - low-cost and reusable spacecraft » 2002-12-06 07:41:48

To start with, keep the crew down to 4 astronauts. Apollo included 3 astronauts, only 2 of whom landed on the Moon. There are psychologists who argue for a whole town, but this is the initial manned mission to Mars so we need explorers who have the "right stuff". The "right stuff" for Mars means independence and fortitude for a 2 year mission.

This is where I disagree with Zubrin and a lot of the MS folks.  A crew of three was good enough for Apollo, but those were two-week missions and part of a sometimes-hasty program to beat the Soviets.  The Mars astronauts will be away from home for 2.5 years.  Imagine spending 2.5 years with only three people--you'd better be rally good friends with them, because they're all you have!

It might be a good idea to send two crews of four on two separate spacecraft.  Doubling up on flghts to Mars adds more redundancy, which is always good in a high-risk mission.

#81 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » The death of SLI as we know it » 2002-12-04 07:23:38

It may be more fair to compare re-entry capsules. The descent module of the modern Soyuz-TM spacecraft masses 3.000 metric tonnes and carries 3 astronauts. The command module of Apollo massed 5.806 tonnes. One reason for this is that the Soyuz has been updated, while Apollo has not. There were plans to squeeze more seats into an Apollo capsule in place of lunar samples. A kit was developed to add 2 seats for a total of 5 for a rescue ship for Skylab.

If Apollo were revived as suggested, it would be the re-entry capsule only.  A small de-orbit rocket would be fitted instead of the service module.  Weight of the capsule would be kept down through advances in materials over the last 40 years.

I think that lifting bodies or space planes are better for crew taxi to ISS, but they're too heavy to bring people back from Mars.  Along the same note, you would need two Soyuz to bring a crew of 4-6 back from Mars.  Desite its extra weight, Apollo remains the superior spacecraft for an earth re-entry vehicle.

#82 Re: Space Policy » Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first » 2002-12-02 12:50:14

Should China join the ISS consortium?

Right now, I'm leaning towards "yes."  The reason?  After 2006, we cannot buy more Soyuz capsules due to the Iran Nonproliferation Act.  Further, the Russian economy makes them a less-than-dependable partner.  But if we could get Shenzhou to replace the similar Soyuz, our problem would be solved.  Even the threat of Chinese involvement with ISS might be enough to make the Russians change their stance on Soyuz production and spreading nuclear technology to Iran.

#83 Re: Space Policy » Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first » 2002-12-02 12:34:43

Some thoughts on China's space program...

1. China will have a man in space by spring 2003, and I don't think anyone doubts that.  Shenzhou 5 may even be a two-man flight.

2.  In its early stages, the Chinese space program will be limited by funding shortages, but that will change as the program's propaganda value is realized and China becomes a superpower.

3.  The moon is China's logical goal within the next twenty years.  The only appropriate action for NASA, RSA, and ESA is to launch a competing moon effort in order to stimulate the stagnating space programs.

4. China will not militarize space unless the United States launches some kind of military spaceplane or space laser.  The military value of China's space program comes from "dual use" technologies--like maneuverable missile reentry vehicles and guidance systems.

#84 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » "Star Wars" missile defense - practicle? » 2002-12-01 13:29:48

If I've said it once, I've said it 10,000 times.  The SDI will HELP the space program because of its innovations.

TRUE THAT!

That's why SDIO funded the Delta Clipper (and why it was allowed to die after coming under civilian control with NASA.)

Any comprehensive defense (lasers or Brilliant Pebbles) will require frequent launches and possibly on-orbit servicing.  I'm starting to think that a space arms race is the only impetus we have left (besides space tourism, which nobody wants to fund) to build an RLV.

#85 Re: Human missions » Shuttle C - Bigger, better, badder » 2002-12-01 13:17:16

An all-new booster might be the way to go, especially if you can build a modular heavy-lifter (in the spirit of Delta IV and Atlas V.)  But doing so requires research and development money that just doesn't exist right now.  The scarcity of funds keeps Shuttle-C in contention to be the Mars rocket of choice, and that will not change for a while (on the bright side, a large portion of NASA's R&D is being spent on nuclear propulsion.)

#86 Re: Human missions » L5 societies responce to "The Case for Mars" » 2002-11-20 12:26:06

I agree with much of the article.  I don't think that we should go to Mars until society (whether it be the U.S., another country, or an international consortium / private venture) is ready to make a long-term commitment to space exploration.

Zubrin designed Mars Direct under the assumption that space access will be limited by expensive rockets and infrequent launch rates.  It's workable as a plan to get humans on Mars as soon as possible, but what do we do when we start to build bases, and we need to resupply them on a constant basis?

Now imagine we wait 20 years.  By then, if we play our cards right, we will have an RLV that will fly routinely and VASIMR rockets for fast, inexpensive transits to Mars.  Orbital assembly will no longer be viewed as "undesirable," abort modes and crew safety on the transfer spacecraft will be improved, and routine access to Mars will be affordable.

The people on this forum want to make the commitment to space that is required for Mars exploration.  Unfortunately, that sentiment is not shared by the average American taxpayer.  Once society grows up, we will be ready for Mars.

#87 Re: Not So Free Chat » Yesterday's U.S. elections » 2002-11-17 09:22:22

The other criticism is the No Fly Zones. America requested the U.N. establish No Fly Zones after the Gulf War. The U.N. said No. America and Brittan have been enforcing the No Fly Zones anyway. Iraq could argue this is an act of aggression against Iraq; in fact, Iraq could try to claim its attempts to shoot at American war planes patrolling Iraqi air space are simply self-defence. No one could possibly defend the actions of Iraq, but two wrongs do not make a right. Could we at least see the current action against Iraq put a permanent end to the No Fly Zones?

The U.N. didn't approve the No-Fly Zones?

Only Iraq has rejected the legitimacy of the no-fly zones.  And I think Saddam welcomes them, because it gives him a chance to shoot down an American plane and score a big propaganda victory.

The no-fly zones have strengthened Iraq's desire to wage war with the United States and support the Wahabbis in thei war with the United States.  But the no-fly zones have also given Kurds and Shiites a safe haven from which a rebellion could begin.

#88 Re: Human missions » NASA, America, etc. - America » 2002-11-17 09:13:23

$200 billion is the cost of the entire program (after all the airplanes have been built, well past 2015.)  $38 million is the average flyaway cost of a single F-35 (actually, the price will vary between 30 and 40 billion, depending on the variant.)

#89 Re: Human missions » Shuttle C - Bigger, better, badder » 2002-11-14 15:17:18

I'm starting to to favor the Shuttle C over Ares for the Mars rocket.  On problem with Ares has to do with the current ET: it's not designed for the bending momnets created by a payload mounted on top of the vehicle.  Some strengthening will probably be required.

#90 Re: Human missions » NASA, America, etc. - America » 2002-11-13 20:46:17

and by far the biggest corporate welfare agency is not NASA but the DoD. See, for example, the $200 billion ( ! ) contract which was just given by the DoD to Lockheed Martin for the design of a new fighter aircraft.

How can you call the Joint Strike Fighter "corporate welfare" ?  By my definition, "corporate welfare" is unjustified government spending for the purpose of unfairly bolstering certain corporations.  Yet buying the Joint Strike Fighter, at least in principle, is justified (although I think the actual number to be produced is excessive based on unrealistic estimates of the future battlefield.)  Furthermore, the JSF contract does not unfairly favor select corporations.  To be honest, it was one of the most competitive contracts in DoD history--it forced McDonnell Douglas to merge with Boeing and caused Northrop Grumman to team w/ Lockheed after the initial downselect, and both teams that flew prototypes spent millions of their own dollars towards the contract.

Of course, one could argue that any government money being spent on the private sector is "corporate welfare."  In this case, we have a decision to make: either force the government to not spend money (an impossibility) or allow the government to seize private companies and build a "socialist utopia."  tongue

#91 Re: Human missions » SLI is dead, what comes next? » 2002-11-13 20:35:53

I'm thinking that Shuttle-C can be justified economically by launching several satellites on one shot, reducing redundant mission costs for the multiple launches of smaller rockets required for the same payload.

Of course, such a plan requires that a LOT of satellites need to be launched into the same orbit.  Using a Shuttle-C to loft multiple satellites in today's market could actually be disastrous because it would REDUCE demand for launchers.

A recent issue of "The Futurist" summed up space tourism (and all of commercial space) like this: costs will come down when there is a demand to commercialize space.  Demand will increase when costs come down.  The solution to this catch-22 is some enabling technology that will both reduce cost and increase demand.  That's why I'm so enthusiastic about the X-Prize.

#92 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Nuclear Propulsion - The best way for space travel » 2002-11-13 09:04:38

You'll get no disagreements from me, TJohn!

Nuclear is the way to go, and the proonents of spaceflight must use this opportunity (the most pro-nuclear administration in many years) to restart development of nuclear space power / propulsion.  NASA already has a limited space nuclear plan, but the future beyond building more RTG's is hazy.

I really lik VASIMR's prospects for powering the first humans-to-Mars mission.  I'm not optimistic that Humans-to-Mars will take place before 2020, but that will at least give VASIMR time to mature.  If NASA funds VASIMR, we will have an engine that will give us short (~100 days) travel times to Mars, low launch mass, and multiple abort options--all of which are ideal for human missions.

#93 Re: Human missions » NASA, America, etc. - America » 2002-11-13 07:03:36

Rather, it is designed to function as a huge corporate welfare engine

NASA is a HUGE corporate welfare engine, consuming $15 billion a year and a MASSIVE 1% of the federal budget.

NASA's primary job is still space exploration, the only problem is that politicians don't understand that.  Take Apollo as an example.  The scientists, engineers, and astronauts all believed in their research and the value of new knowledge.  The projects supporters in Congress could have cared less; President Johnson used it to justify pork-barrel spending in Texas when the Manned Spaceflight Center could have been built at Cape Canaveral like everything else.

Because NASA is a government organization, it must exist as both a scientifc and political entity.  If we want to make a group firmy-committed to space science, we'll have to wait until research institutions can afford space travel--which requires the commercialization of space.

#94 Re: Human missions » NASA Reforms » 2002-11-12 00:57:00

Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and the rest would do just fine without public funding from NASA.  I'd even bet they could susrvive without their defense business because the companies are so diversified.

Bringing the industry under NASA's control and saying that you'd minimise the role of Congress is like saying you'd rob a bank but not touch the money.  Congress will be at every turn in NASA's decision-making process because NASA is a federal organization which receives federal dollars.  Congress is not content falling asleep at the switch and letting their subordinate organizations spend their money.

Mankind will be a spacefaring society one there is a need for space.  There is no way that a government organization can accomplish a need on that scale.  Only the free-market, capitalist forces can force us to take advantage of space--whether the need arise from space mining, space tourism, or satellite communications and imagery.  Space is a place to be taken advantage of, not a program.

#95 Re: Human missions » Shuttle C - Bigger, better, badder » 2002-11-11 10:10:13

For the long term, I would argue for development of SCRAM jet technology, and further developing that into an engine that can smoothly transition between RAM jet operation, SCRAM jet, air augmented rocket, and Liquid Oxygen fed rocket. Such a multi-mode engine is called a Rocket Based Combined-Cycle engine, or RBCC. Boeing is working on an RBCC. The September-October issue of the Journal of Propulsion and Power has several papers on SCRAM jet engines intended to operate in the Mach 4-6.5 range.

Funny that you should mention scramjets and RBCCs.

I have some hope that air-breathing engines will drastically reduce the cost of space.  However, Rand Simberg, my personal hero, seems to think that the depressed trajectories of air-breathing spaceplanes negate the benefits of not carrying an oxidizer.

With that being said, developing an RBCC should still be a priority.  Even if they aren't good for spaceplanes, they would still be useful in Mach 6 bombers and "Orient Express" airliners.

#96 Re: Human missions » NASA Reforms » 2002-11-10 20:00:30

I suppose I'll just add one more thing, also--I think there was some message that Mark was talking about how NASA's role is create jobs--well, that's true, but I think what is more important is that NASA is creating profits.

I've said many atime that NASA is treated as a federal jobs program.  I just wanted to clear up any misconceptions by saying that I believe NASA should NOT be treated this way.  NASA's job is to perform scientific research that cannot or will not be performed by the private sector.

Rather than nationalizing the business of exploring space (which is inherently un-American,) space should be largely privatized.  NASA will have a role, but it will act as both an oversight body and a user of private space vehicles, rather than the operator of space vehicles.

It's possible to make the case that NASA has created profits for the private sector (by encouraging companies to make dual-use products and space spinoffs,) but exploration has been largely unprofitable for NASA.  That's why the shuttle and ISS have exceeded their budgets.  If the Shuttle was sold off and ISS operations were  given to a private company, NASA's operating budget would be much cheaper.  For the same reasons, the armed forces contract a good share of their work, especially maintenance, to the private sector.

#97 Re: Human missions » Shuttle C - Bigger, better, badder » 2002-11-10 11:39:44

The shuttle MLP was actually modified from the Saturn V MLP, which had a completely different engine configuration from the shuttle.  I don't think it would be too impractical to modify one of the two MLP's for a shuttle-derived booster.

I also think that we should move away from reliance on the MLP.  The Energia transporter system allowed for faster transport (by a launchpad on rails) to the launch site, and the booster was transported in a horizontal fashion, which is easier from a mating, boarding, and checkout standpoint.

I don't see too much of a problem modifying the Shuttle ET for an upper stage.  Instead of using the ogive LOX tank on the original ET, just use a shortened hydrogen tank, with common hemisphere bulkheads from the ET hydrogen tank. 

Side-mounting the engines may have some benefits, even if the MLP is modified or discarded.  It allows for an aft cargo container (ACC) on the end of the ET, and the ACC can hold equipment and stores for modifying the ET into a habitable module.

#98 Re: Human missions » Shuttle C - Bigger, better, badder » 2002-11-09 21:52:29

I don't like SRB's either because they limit your abort modes (although a launch abort is moot when dealing with unmanned cargo rockets.)  Using Zenit first stages (similar to the Energia strap-ons) would make a lot of sense, even though it would take longer to test opposed to the proven SRB/ET combination.

As I've indicated before, I like launch systems that can be expanded to meet the needs of the payload, just like the Delta IV and Atlas V.  Your Shuttle-C would be good for launching a Mars Direct style mission.  Adding the two ETs side-by-side would enable even larger payloads to be sent to Mars.

#99 Re: Human missions » Shuttle C - Bigger, better, badder » 2002-11-09 20:18:12

Our ability to launch anything to the Moon, Mars, or outer planets is limited by the 24 tonne limit of existing boosters (Shuttle, Titan IV, Delta IV.)  On this forum we have established that resurrecting the Saturn V or Energia is possible but not practical due to the presence of shuttle technologies that will help us build something bigger.

Zubrin's Ares is an outgrowth of previous Martin studies for Shuttle-C, an unmanned cargo rocket using shuttle boosters and ET for the 0th and first stages.  Ares carries its payload on an upper stage, although the official Shuttle-C studies carried it in a lateral payload canister which housed the engines.

According to David Portree's Romance to Reality, Martin actually planned to use Shuttle-C to make an "EELV," like the Delta IV heavy.  Three ETs with attached angines would be mated side to side with an upper stage on top.  Six advanced SRBs would give the ET booster some help off the ground.

Today we have the tools to make it all possible.  The RS-68 is cheaper and provides more thrust than the SSME.  The Shuttle ET is lighter.  The French Vulcain 2 engine is the perfect size for the upper stage of the Shuttle-C rocket.  Fabricating extra ETs and SRBs for the Shuttle C will also bring down launch costs for the standard Shuttle.

It's time we go ahead with Shuttle C.  If only NASA had the guts to commit to a manned Mars mission.

#100 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » The death of SLI as we know it » 2002-11-09 18:05:46

I wouldn't call Russian technology "unreliable" in general, but I agree with the need for a new "Apollo" capsule, or an Apollo follow-on with a parafoil landing system.  I generally regard Apollo as the best capsule ever built (capable of carrying three astronauts in confort and six in an emergency.)  A lifting body spacecraft like NASA's Orbital Space Plane is neat, but it's too heavy to return humans from a Mars mission.  A modern Apollo CM is the way to go.

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