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#6852 Re: Human missions » Problems with Humans on Mars » 2008-05-25 07:41:02

"Amundsen-Scott base is permanently inhabited, but nobody calls it a colony."

From might point of view, that is because of its purpose. Its purpose as I understand remains strictly scientific. If the object were to develop a self-sustaining human community, primarily for its own existence then I think we might call it a colony.

I agree if we just set up a base on Mars as a scientific "listening post" then there is not much point in calling it a colony because it is not our aim to create a large self sustaining human community there.

#6853 Re: Human missions » Problems with Humans on Mars » 2008-05-24 18:33:51

...carrying on...

I think of a base as a small colony or part of a larger colony. A collection of several bases in close proximity I would call a settlement or city.

#6854 Re: Human missions » Problems with Humans on Mars » 2008-05-24 18:32:34

Ciclops -

Trying  to get these definitions sorted. So you seem to be saying...

Outpost is a permanent installation periodically with human habitation.

Colony is a permanent installation continuously inhabited mostly by persons who are permanent inhabitants of Mars.

You don't give a definition for a "base". Is that a permanent installation with permanent human habitations but where the inhabitants are mostly temporary inhabitants of Mars?

I don't really agree with this approach. I think any permanent installation which is continuously inhabited deserves to be called a colony. I wouldn't bother with the term outpost unless we are talking about a temporary habitat.

#6855 Re: Life support systems » Eat Like a Martian » 2008-05-24 13:26:13

I've said before that I can't see much point in having a natural greenhouse on the surface. For one thing it will be vulnerable to a meteorite storm - which could destroy your whole food growing system. For another it makes the crops vulnerable to radiation damage. Finally you have to have a reserve lighting system to cope with dust storms. Since you have to have the reserve system (which will in any case get in the way of the natural sunlight unless you make an even more complex system), you might as well use it all the time since the electrical input will NOT be a problem.

#6856 Re: Human missions » Problems with Humans on Mars » 2008-05-24 11:44:14

Not sure how we define the difference between a permanent outpost and a colony. I can't imagine that there will in the first 50 years be many volunteers (or at least, not many suitable volunteers). I think the reality is that people will be living on Mars temporarily for between 2 and 6 years. 

Gold trading might cover the cost of human transport. I don't think the developing outpost/colony will require a huge amount of material supply.  They will be living simply on Mars and the food, furniture, hygiene products, clothes etc will be made with Mars ISRU.  Some hi tech spare parts for machines and medicines will be required, but not huge amounts. I think we might be looking at less than 100 tonnes every 2 years for a mature outpost colony of 100 people.

#6857 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Next Launch / Event » 2008-05-24 04:48:56

Wow - that Mission Status link really brings home the fantastic achievement
of these NASA people in getting this thing on target. Brilliant!

I remember looking through rather weak binoculars at Mars a few years ago when it was at its closest - an orangey dob of light in the night sky. To think they've got that hardware all the way from here to there - amazing.

And now comes the difficult bit!

Fingers crossed for chutes opening and all the rest.  Shame this won't be a Rover though.

#6858 Re: Civilization and Culture » Naming the colony » 2008-05-23 17:37:42

That will be

   

ATLAST


Population 6[/b]

#6859 Re: Civilization and Culture » Naming the colony » 2008-05-23 17:36:19

Ok! Suggest we combine the two words so it appears as

ATLAST

#6860 Re: Civilization and Culture » New language for Mars? » 2008-05-23 17:33:48

Jumpboy -

Esperanto? It's very Euro-latin-centric. Complete ignores African, Chinese and Indian languages.

It's not that easy to learn either, being so inflected and is no more rational than most languages.

I see no reason to opt for Esperanto which is spoken by hardly anyone in any case. Better to start afresh if it were to be attempted.

#6861 Re: Human missions » Problems with Humans on Mars » 2008-05-23 17:30:29

Granted: a problem for the lander, not the Hab.

#6862 Re: Human missions » Problems with Humans on Mars » 2008-05-23 06:06:43

The Mars Hab doesn't have to fly! I think that removes about 90% of the complexity - all that cabling, wiring and instrumentation. I mean - what are we seeking to monitor and control in the Hab? It's an interesting question...probable list:

- Air quality

- Air pressure

- Radiation levels

- Air temperature

- Humidity

- Water levels/quality

- Fridge/freezer temperatures.

- Water temperature (hot and cold)

- Power intake/battery levels

- Venting of sewer gas?

- External conditions (whether safe to go out).

That probably covers it. A lot of these controls are very standard and will just need to be of a high engineering standard for durability (although we would have spares for the most important).

There is still the puzzle of how one arrives at these figures if development costs have been "front loaded". 

I don't think we need anything near a 1,000 support staff for a minimal Mars mission so even the estimates I have produced so far are pretty inflated.

I can see deep space coms could be an expensive ongoing cost. May depend if one could latch on to NASA's or Russia's existing system.

#6863 Re: Human missions » Armstrong Lunar Outpost - status » 2008-05-23 02:16:33

Regolith is armour - otherwise these meteorites would travel to the centre of the Moon! So just pile on the regolith.

#6864 Re: Not So Free Chat » Has Multiculturalism Failed ? » 2008-05-22 21:26:41

I think any country that doesn't look closely at the people it allows to become permanent residents and citizens is crazy. Yes, you should make sure that such people, whatever their background, are going to be loyal to your institutions.

While 96,000 might not sound a lot, you have to factor in a much higher birth rate for Muslim immigrants.

In the UK, we had hardly any significant immigrant communities 60 years ago. We now have a situation where 25% of primary school children don't have English as a first language (and that must exclude the quite substantial numbers of immigrants who do).

I think in the USA you should be concerned about Hispanic immigration. Language is the glue that holds together the USA and makes it what it is. Make it bilingual and it will become a sort of fractious Canada. That would be a great shame because the USA is the only big successful nation on earth not based on ethnic, racial, religious or  monarchical identity.  (Although Brazil might be an alternative candidate.)

#6865 Re: Not So Free Chat » The Flag that Barack Obama won't wear » 2008-05-22 21:16:01

My great great grandfather 1st Sergent Thomas B. Kalbfus mustered under the Pennsylvania Militia under that flag which Obama won't wear to free his ancestor. It was only a 90 day enlistment at the beginning of the War, but he was willing to risk his life to that extend to preserve the Union that flag represents. Other people who wore gray, refused to wear that flag and wanted to keep Obama's ancestors in bondage.

I think Barack Obama really under appreciates his country and craves only the power of the office he seeks rather than to do something positive for his country. Perhaps he ought to move to Africa and run for President of Liberia instead, seeing how he refuses to go so far as to actually give tangible evidence of his patriotism, and pointing this out specifically. My ancestor sacrificed to free his ancestor and to abolish an institution that he abhored, and if that's not good enough for Obama, he's free to go to Africa any time he likes.

I'm sceptical about Obama's politics - how could he sit in that Church for 20 years and not realise there was something dodgy - but from a historical point of view the Civil War was fought to protect the Union, NOT to free slaves. Freeing slaves was an afterthought that came very late in the war.

More importantly perhaps, Obama is NOT the scion of slaves. His father was a Kenyan African, his mother a European American.

#6866 Re: Not So Free Chat » Arthur C. Clark Dies Disapointed » 2008-05-22 21:10:15

He had some interesting technical ideas but from a philosophical point of view he always struck me as very shallow.

#6867 Re: Not So Free Chat » Current Gasoline/Petrol Price$ » 2008-05-22 21:07:41

The inflation effect is worldwide. It reflects a real excess of demand over supply with respect to oil.

Of course if your government reduces the value of your currency by printing money to pay off banks who have screwed up, the inflation effect will be worse.

The good news is that the higher the oil price rises, the more solar, wind and wave sources of energy become viable.

I think wave technology could become very important in the UK.

I like also the idea for "flying bedstead" wind energy facilities - which capture wind at the height of the jet stream. There the winds are dependable and MUCH, MUCH stronger than on the ground.

Personally I wouldn't mind if we said "We are going to phase out all use of oil within 10 years". We might be personally poorer by a margin, but our local economies would benefit from the economic stimulus and we would be freed of pressure from undemocratic regimes in the Middle East, North Africa and Russia.

#6868 Re: Civilization and Culture » Naming the colony » 2008-05-22 20:59:00

I respect your viewpoint, Gregori. This isn't a PR exercise. But I guess I just have a personal bias towards the inspiring. "Apollo" was a good choice, much better than say M1.

wink

#6869 Re: Human missions » Armstrong Lunar Outpost - status » 2008-05-22 20:56:25

So the Apollo guys were lucky!

Just reinforces the need for regolith covered habitat in my view.

#6870 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Domed habitats... - ...size, materials, and more. » 2008-05-22 17:32:46

I think we need to understand that a Biosphere has very little to do with a Mars habitat. A Mars habitat won't be a closed self-regulating eco system. It will be an externally supported eco system - energy, resources and raw materials will be drawn in from outside the habitat and certain waste products will be vented into the exterior.

#6871 Re: Human missions » Problems with Humans on Mars » 2008-05-22 17:25:26

In the outline of DRM 5.0 each mission uses 6 Ares V and an Orion/Ares I plus a Hab and an MTV. The launchers will cost about $3 billion and say another billion for the Hab/MTV. So yes, that would be about $4 billion every two years for hardware. It also seems to include running the Outpost, that he says costs $4 billion per year. These are very very approximate numbers, but they are an indication of what is thought to be needed to maintain such a program. For comparison that's about the same as Shuttle ($4 billion) and ISS ($2 billion) cost per year.

It sounds to me like development costs are being conflated with production costs here. I simply don't believe that an expandable hab will cost anything like hundreds of millions in terms of production costs.

Besides, we need to be clearer here about whether we are talking about just running say a six person habitat or expanding the colony.  If we are simply talking about maintaining an outpost I don't see how that requires a habitat replacement every 2 years.

These figures are incredible. Where do we get the $4 billion  for running the outpost from?  I've already noted that even if it requires 1,000 support staff, the wage bill's  not even going to be near $200million. I don't for one moment believe 1,000 support staff are required. But even they are, that leaves $3.8 billion of expenditure for us to locate! Where will it all be going?

The Shuttle and ISS are as I understand it both extremely expensive technologies and the Shuttle is flying several missions each year I think, not one every two years.  The ISS requires a hell of a lot of upkeep because it can't really do ISRU apart from energy capture and a little bit of food growing.

#6872 Re: Human missions » Working outdoors - heat reflecting structure » 2008-05-22 14:37:15

GCN Revenger -

On the H&S advantages, I think that they are twofold:

1. Additional radiation protection and micrometeorite  protection.

2. I think that while habitat and farm areas should be entrenched or covered in regolith, the danger of a flash fire from industrial processes makes above ground and open working desirable - so any fires or explosions do not endanger the main habitat and the personnel have a fighting chance of survival. (Of course the primary aim must be to ensure 100% safe operation, but we can't rule out human or machine error.)

That said, the heat issue was something that did exercise me and I am interested to learn from you that heat loss is less of a problem owing to the thin atmosphere - hadn't realised it was quite so significant. If heat is not a huge issue (and I don't think it would be with solar either by the way - given there are plenty of opportunities for energy storage to power internal heaters) then I wouldn't run with my idea - straighforward working in the open is probably OK, maybe with judicious choice of location, to provide a shadowed area perhaps for a large part of the idea, so as to provide additional radiation protection.

#6873 Re: Civilization and Culture » Naming the colony » 2008-05-22 12:42:08

In the USA colonists often changed the name of their place after a few years of settlement. No harm in starting off with something alluring!

#6874 Re: Human missions » Problems with Humans on Mars » 2008-05-22 12:40:01

I think $6 billion a year for operational costs is way over the mark. Operational costs should definitely be going down over time.

I suspect that the missions being envisaged are overelaborate with NASA style allocations of 2 tonnes medical supplies!

We don't need a huge pressurised vehicle to do effective exploration (especially if we get the lander craft right so they can do hopping around the planet once we get rocket fuel production up and running). That will save a bundle.

I'm really at a loss to identify what the $6 billion dollars could consist of. I mean - employing a 1000 support staff couldn't cost more than $200million!  And I don't think the launch pads/mission control will need anything like that number.

#6875 Re: Human missions » Problems with Humans on Mars » 2008-05-22 07:06:09

Is there any chance of having a breakdown of this $300 billion figure. I don't find it credible at all - at least not for a minimal mission.

If we just take launch costs.  Suppose we take a cost of $10,000 per Kg for LEO. That's $100Million for a ten tonne craft.  Let's suppose that we quadruple that figure and then double it again to get a reasonable price for getting to and back from Mars. That gives a figure of $800million. I'd recommend four craft (2 unmanned and 2 manned), which then gives a total of $3.2 billion.

Obviously there will be development costs for the lander, inflatable-expandable habitats and also additional costs for ongoing mission control.  Let's throw in $6.8billion for that and call it a round $10billion.

Beyond the initial 2 year mission, there will be mostly sunk costs, so moving on we can probably think in terms of say $5 billion every two years.  So over 10 years I would say the costs would be $30billion - one tenth the cost.

I've no idea how anyone arrives at $300 billion.  I find that quite fantastic.

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