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#576 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Draft Laws for Mars - Laws for the Peaceful Settlement of Mars » 2003-04-15 09:19:22

Hum... sorry for interfering in a debate that's already taken noteworthy steps in the direction of general confusion, but...

Is freedom of speech really an originally American idea? I thought it was a typically pagan, Roman, European, enlightenment, not to mention Voltairian sort of ideal.

Just had too I guess... smile

#577 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Communism - Any Communists in here? » 2003-04-14 15:16:19

Josh, does that suspicion include me? If so I can assure you such is not the case. Only because nicknames might be familiarly Italian sounding, that does not mean we are related.
I simply have no more patience with terror on Russian or Chinese peasantry than I have for "final solutions" of other people.

Cheers!  smile

#578 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Libertarians...any Libertarians in here? » 2003-04-14 13:00:32

Alexander Sheppard, thanks for an interesting post. I haven't discussed this subject till boredom at least. Thought provoking in many ways.
You are of course referring to an American situation, but I suspect elements of it adhere to every space agency under the current order of things. My hope is that China, Russia, India and Europe at least won't thread down the exact same path (if that's not happened already).


Josh Cryer,

What is the result of a positive balance of trade? And how would it be better (if that's what you're implying) than self sustainablity?

- I'm not implying it would be better, I'm just pointing out that there's no incentive for free market driven space exploration/colonization, unlike the case of the Americas in the 16-19th centuries. (Easy money was the thing that made the new world going, no matter what crazy religious fringe group we might wish to put up as an example of ideal pioneers.) A lot of people seem to put their hopes on private initiative while they are heckling the state. I find this approach counter productive and kind of barking up the wrong tree.
Considering the scope and energy needed to break us free from orbit, it will realistically entail a state/socialist approach, free market liberalism simply won't get us nowhere.
That's not to say that state funding won't pay off eventually, at least in some areas. If government spending, in the end, is the only way to stimulate the economy, raising the demand for labour and hence wages (to speak with Mr Adam Smith) and floating technology in order to increase productivity in the civilian sector, you might just as well put the money into something lucrative, like solar power satellites, rather than essentially worthless, unproductive military junk.


Couldn't we conceivably have a Martian society of Reds who declare complete and utter independence from Earth? No immigration allowed, no Earth-style cultural symbols or traditions, etc

- Alright, but why "Reds", why not Blacks or Greens or Purples? Being European, I've developed something of a neuralgia to hammers and sickles. Oh, you just wrote no terran symbols, excuse me, I overlooked! (No, it's not really the hammers and sickles either, it's a kind of thinking or sentiment so 'positive' and 'righteous' and inept, it leads to sectarian flavoured mass murder, that I detest. I've got no problem with either red stars or napoleonic eagles, really. And if the martian colony is not to adhere to any terran culture, what culture will it have? Of course the martian culture, even if it evolves along new and unchartered paths, will have discernible roots. I see no point in denying who you are.)


And on what basis is a gradual transition to self sustainablity? I think it's a prerequisite for colonization, myself.

- Okay, I started off writing that a Mars colony would have to be tax funded for generations. I admit that maybe I was exaggerating. I tried to get a point across.


Though I understand your comments about American colonists, I think you missed the point, that there were still individuals who were living off the land and doing things their own way, with little to no financial connection to their place of origin. So... whoever has the money, will fund it.

- Well, if we could find a way to finance it, count me in!
One might bear in mind though that if the Mars Society would be going to Mars by its own means, it will constitute a kind of political entity and a mini state unto itself (although international in origin). All hail king Zubrin of Arcadia!
:;):


One must note that profiting isn't our goal, explicitly. Getting to Mars is our goal. I think we can run more efficiently than a company which is attempting to achieve the same goals.

- I agree.

#579 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Libertarians...any Libertarians in here? » 2003-04-08 04:54:31

As for "Plymouth", self sustainability is an important goal as evidenced only from a lot of posts only in this forum (and you can count on that I'm all for it), but it will only be achieved gradually and even then, self sustainability is not the same as a positive balance of trade.
The question remains, what will the martians have to offer in return for imported goods? Seen as a free market venture, what's in it for Terran capitalists?
From a purely economical point of view, asteroid mining for rare minerals and solar power utilization in near Earth space seems to me a more promising perspective than colonizing Mars, at least in the short to medium perspective, yet even in this case it has proved exceedingly difficult to attract private capital.

The comparison of America to Mars is actually completely reversed. In the case of the American colonies, huge profits could be engendered with a minimum of time, effort and investment. Simple people could set up businesses in the new world with a minimum of preparation, the labour of which transformed into material values, flowed back and benefitted the mother country. The cost of emigration was more or less that of ballast. I forgot to mention that timber, grain, fish and iron were also major export articles, readily extractable. In the case of Mars only the arrangement of adequate infrastructure to remain alive on the surface is an enourmous financial undertaking. Who will fund it?
Private capital is not good at providing infrastructure as experience shows. It's prime concern is the upcoming quarterly balance sheet. It's all about putting money where it will provide the biggest profits in the shortest time. Even in the United States the wise Washington agreed to print money provided it went into infrastructure, getting it locked there so it wouldn't cause inflation, which in turn private enterprise could benefit from. Free market forces proved insufficient for sustainable growth without political interference.
Same thing applies to space. First the infrastructure must be put into place and only then might private capital be interested in establishing itself. And in the case of Mars there is still the question what will be produced and traded. For the foreseeable future, I mean.
I firmly believe in colonizing Mars as beneficial to humanity as I do exploitation of near Earth surroundings. But in the case of Mars we should be happy with only the emergence of two parallell economies that will not have very much to do with each other. That is freeing Mars from one sided economical dependence on Earth.
I can see no other agency to undertake these developments than stable and strong willed governments. Only political agencies are potentially free from the short sighted constraints of profit making competitive business.

Food for thought: The United States made it to the Moon in less than nine years because of an explicit, political aim. The space program started to crumble in the early seventies. Exactly at the same time as state driven keynesianism was replaced by the principles of free market neo-liberalism.

Concerning martian lettuce:

Bah, humbug. Why not? Are you not a Mars enthusiast?! I'm going to start questioning peoples loyality to the Mars Society (or just the idea of colonizing Mars in general) if they keep saying stuff like that!!

He, he, maybe it's time to introduce a marxist-leninist maoist appeal for the tolerance of constructive criticism? "Oh my God, an infidel, stone him!"
big_smile

#580 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Communism - Any Communists in here? » 2003-04-08 03:20:08

Hi Cindy!
This is the first time I recieve a reply from you (I think). I often find your posts spot on and besides I tend to side with Voltaire as well.
Don't worry, we don't have to be authorities on everything (I certainly am not) and I wasn't really after Trotsky's personal mores. It's just that he had close personal ties to a political monster by the name of Lenin and raised a red army which besides fighting the Whites was primarily concerned with suppressing, starving and murdering the peasant population. As a consequence, workers who used their right by law and went on strike for a loaf of bread and a minimum of human dignity, were shot at as well or sent to concentration camps by the hundreds of thousands. Trotsky, to put it bluntly, was one of those people who created a system demanding universal praise, but where you'd get shot through the neck for stealing a bicycle.
Not every dictatorship, broadly speaking, need in principle be a parasite sucking the life blood of the host nation, but in the case of the Bolshevik state I have to say there's a tree you'll know by its fruit.

I'd have to go back to the book and its sources.  By the "terrorist political system" and the "killed millions" are you referring to the Bolshevik Revolution?

- Evidently, yes.

As for books, the Soviet system has taken surprisingly long to be recognized for its true nature, especially among western intellectuals (which is actually rather shameful). Barbara Tuchmann, a writer I'm personally very fond of, for example wrote this as late as 1981:

"The record of the Russian proletariat in power can hardly be called enlightened, although after sixty years of it in control it must be accorded a kind of brutal success. If the majority of Russians are materially better off than before, the cost in cruelty and tyranny has been no less and probably greater than under the tzars."

Whatever could she have meant by "probably" in the final sentence?
To me that refers back to a state of mind where the great helmsman 'was at least on the good side' and there was no question for neither Hemingway or caf? owner Rick of what side to support in the Spanish Civil War etc, despite the fact that Stalin viewed the Republican side as little more than an oppurtunity to create a Communist branch in the western hemisphere.

#581 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Libertarians...any Libertarians in here? » 2003-04-07 19:40:06

I don't recall the first American settlements being tax funded, but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

- That's because colonization of the Americas payed for itself by hugely lucrative exports of tobacco, sugar, fur and indigo. What will the Mars colony be exporting in exchange for the substantial amounts of sophisticated merchandise it needs just to sustain itself? Martian cultivated cabbages just won't do.


Truely, getting there is most of the problem. NASA has shown that tax funding doesn't get us anywhere with regards to manned space flight, because there's just too much bureaucracy involved.

- Well then, trash the bureacracy and change the priorities. A mission to Mars is a political matter. The only thing lacking is political will power.


Anything that is tax funded, generally, wouldn't qualify as a settlement or colonization effort.

- I don't know, maybe you are right. I won't turn this discussion into a dispute over semantics though.

By the way, I can't remember having that KISS philosopy conversation. Nevertheless, sounds like a philosophy I'd be ready to subscribe to. The faster ordinary people can turn into brave Mars pioneers, the better in my opinion.
smile

#582 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Project Orion Revisited. - Why not an Earth Launch? » 2003-04-07 18:40:36

Soph, I guess we could argue about this forever and you are much more informed about these matters than I am, that's for sure. Just felt like replying anyhow.

Like I said before, any type of NTR launch is more desirable from the ground.  GCNRs could be designed to be heavy lift vehicles, or even SSTOs for planetary or orbital travel.  They could be clean, manuverable, efficient, and powerful.

- Some people say gas core nuclear rockets cannot yet be built (a heat resistance issue?) and there seems to be some divided opinons on how good nuclear thermal reactors would be for a ground launch. I used to believe NTR's had an awful lot of thrust to weight power, but Nuclear Space seems to imply that's not the case. Could we get some clarification on this point from the assembled experts? Sure, they must be superior to chemical rockets at least?
Just to point it out, I'm not against NTR's, I would love to see one built and I agree the clean system is a major advantage.

Plus, they give you a reactor for your ship, which Orion doesn't, and they allow much more design flexibility.  You don't have a huge plate that serves as basic dead weight.

- That could not be a major problem. The original nuclear pulse propulsed space ship was designed to carry 150 people. Surely, we could trade some of that for a small nuclear reactor plus 50 m + of hab space cylinder and heavy shielding etc, etc.
The pusher plate is not "dead weight" by the way, but an essential part of the propulsion system. Just like the (heavy) nuclear reactor on an NTR.

If we have a pulse every second, let's calculate how many pulses you need to get to Mars and back.  Are you going to store that many nuclear devices on board?

- I think it was about 2000 bomblets to make it to Mars and back. What's the problem?

It would only take a few dozen kg of uranium/plutonium, at most, for a NERVA based Mars mission.  Less if we used liquid core NTRs, and even less if we used GCNRs.

- Okay, you have a point there. Still, don't you think the sheer lifting power of an Orion would out perform the benefits of reduced fuel costs?

I understand what you mean about heavy lift, Earth->orbit/space, and I once thought the same way.  But it just isn't worth the political hassle, and there are more attractive and flexbile alternatives.

- I guess you are right. In America at least. Maybe in the end, someone else will turn up and make it fly?

#583 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Libertarians...any Libertarians in here? » 2003-04-07 17:25:01

Considering that any Mars settlement will have to be tax funded for generations, I find it somewhat odd that libertarianism and every sort of anarchic or capitalist ideologies hold such a notable sway over many people wanting to go there.

Kind of counter productive, I reckon. Well, that's just my humble opinion.

#584 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Communism - Any Communists in here? » 2003-04-07 17:07:11

Leon Trotsky had an interesting and, I feel, genuine view of communism; I think he was sincere (based on what I've read about him)...but he was vilified by Stalin & Co., portrayed by them as "the enemy of True Communism," and forced into exile.

Err... you sure about that? After all, Leon Trotsky was part of a terrorist political system (in the true sense of the word) which killed millions long before the demise of Lenin, because from the outset it was at war with its own people. I hardly think there is anything Stalin could have done to "vilify" a person like Trotsky.

#585 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Project Orion Revisited. - Why not an Earth Launch? » 2003-03-28 19:31:07

I'm no expert but strangely I've come to exactly the opposite conclusion. Ground launch, in fact, I think is the actual ra?son d'etre for nuclear pulse propulsion. As such it could also have enormous implications for nearby industrial ventures.
Speaking from the interested public side of the fence, what really made me appreciate the idea of resuscitating the Orion are the incredible thrust levels involved. Almost makes me feel like digging up the treasures of a lost civilization. smile  According to http://www.islandone.org/APC/ it had a T/W ratio of about 4, as far as I can tell making it optimal for carrying heavy payloads into space.

Provided fall out levels can be minimized as outlined by Nuclear Space and discussed in this thread, the immediate use for an updated Orion would thus be for Earth launch as a heavy lifter.

Why do I think that's decisive?

Well, when going to Mars for example, going there as fast as possible isn't the primary concern (although you'll do that as well), arriving there in one piece and good health is. That requires things like heavy shielding for protection against coronal mass ejections (if lead, I've read 50 cm, which is probably pretty heavy) plus an adequate system for providing artificial gravity. Minimum requirements for the latter suggests a cylinder 44 m in diameter and as far as I've understood it, even then 0,3 g will be about the level reached if the cylinder is not to revolve too fast to be comfortable.

With the Orion we could put all this bulk on top and stuff the equipment needed for setting up a substantial martian base in just one trip. The entire hab section can be lined for protection so we won't need to rely on hopefully accurate reports on space weather and storm shelters. There'll be no need for consecutive launches from Earth by chemical rockets, dockings and final assembly in LEO just to get the spacecraft together. I suspect the latter can be more complicated than expected and by any rate prone to mistakes. Instead, just launch it from Earth as one complete package and go! So long as there's no orbital infrastructure, I find a direct launch much more appealing (not to mention that I can think of no better way of getting this into place).
In transit, forget about complicated tethers and cramped living quarters. Accomodations could be provided to make Flash Gordon envious.

Whatever couldn't nuclear pulse propulsion do to boost the Mars Direct plan? The spaceship could remain in Mars orbit, dock with the ascend viechle and be used for the return trip. Sounds like one critical sequence in the entire mission apparatus. While remaining in orbit it could prove vital as a means of premature evac if something went wrong on the surface, it could even be equipped with several landers. Bigger payloads means room for contigency plans and thus increased security. Big is bold, practical and generous. Thus, big is beautiful.

If however, a launch from orbit is callled for, I see no decisive need for using the Orion concept. NTR or hybrid NTR/NEP would be sufficient, at least since industrial expansion and scale economics is not on the agenda but merely a humble mission to Mars. Too bad I guess, the most meaningful use of the Orion concept is precisely the one everyone fears: a ground launch.
One more thing that caught my eye. It seems to follow from the pulse propulsion concept (total number of bomblets/pulse interval) that accelerating/deaccelerating is done within a rather limited time frame at the start and end of each journey. That means there's a long segment of cruise speed in between, which I believe is well suited to artificial gravity since none will be generated in the wrong direction.

#586 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Extraterrestrial Civilizations - Isaac Asimov's predictions vs"Rare Earth » 2003-03-25 22:20:51

I've looked around on the net somewhat for links on Freeman Dyson. Seems to be a pretty important fellow, though I didn?t find anything on the above and now I really need to go to bed.

?When he speaks, people tend to listen.?

Okay, I hear you. The children are all ears. smile

Later & goodnight!

#587 Re: Human missions » Project Orion. Worthy of a second look? - New Article at Spacedaily. » 2003-03-25 21:55:07

A layman's point of view:

I've known about project Orion since I was about 15 and read Carl Sagan's Cosmos. Having come to view the entire concept as ridiculuos (never even contemplated it for Earth launches because of radiation issues), I must admit that reading through the four pages of this thread has caused a change of heart.

Well done Mr Nuclear Space! cool

I mean, just think about the thrust to weight ratio obviously related to this technology! (Okay I might still need to look into some details on my own here.) Yet with the productivity implied, does it really matter if one or two viechles might explode at some desolate location, especially considering the great number of even thermo nuclear rocket viechles needed for the same amount of payload? (If those are feasible for down gravity well launches that is, at least I had hitherto thought so!)
Astronauts and related staff are asked to have the right stuff. It's their duty to put their lives on the line and not to wheen too much about security. Test pilots and speed freaks for Christ's sake. Moreover, as soon as we get some decent infrastructure up there, maybe we won't need to continue any potentially hazardous earth launches, anyway.

Plus, Werner von Braun got sold on the idea. Then it simply have to be good!
smile

And this is the second time tonight I heard the name Freeman Dyson (obviously the project manager in the old days). Sounds like a good omen.

#588 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Extraterrestrial Civilizations - Isaac Asimov's predictions vs"Rare Earth » 2003-03-25 15:14:23

According to Dr. Dyson: "He actually sees stuff arriving here on Earth from Beta Pictoris, which I find very delightful".

That sounds not only astoundingly fascinating but also absolutely impossible. How would he know the stuff was from Beta Pictoris? We don't even know the exact distances to nearby stars!
yikes

Any hint how he arrived at his conclusion?

#589 Re: Intelligent Alien Life » Extraterrestrial Civilizations - Isaac Asimov's predictions vs"Rare Earth » 2003-03-25 15:05:22

Also, when you look at the data of extrasolar planet hunters like Geoff Marcy and others wherein we typically find gas giants either very close to their parent stars (we're talking other stars similar to our sun, of course) or otherwise in very chaotic elliptical orbits, our very own solar system may be itself a considerable exception from the norm!  It would seem that any alien civilizations that might be out there are exceedingly inconspiquous by their complete absence.

In fact, and I hope you find it good news, quite a number of these extra solar gas giants (there are currently over a 100 of them) do exhibit quite regular Jovian orbits.
Then regarding the specific prerequisites for life in our solar system, such as Jupiter and the Moon, why not consider 47 Ursa Majoris (a G0 star at 45.9 ly), which have two gas giants in nearly circular orbits at a distance of 2.09 and 3.73 AU from their parent star, with 2.54 and 0.76 Jupiter masses respectively?
Let's say their hypothetical homeplanet, at about 1.1 AU, have an even bigger moon than ours, making their world almost a double planet system; now hear them go:
"Because our beneficient gas worlds b and c, functioning like giant vacuum cleaners, not to mention our unique twin planetary constellation, without which we wouldn't exist, have provided life in our solar system with such terrific stroke of luck, we must estimate that intelligent life in the galaxy is probably exceeedingly rare".
big_smile

http://www.solstation.com/stars2/47uma.htm
http://www.extrasolar.net/mainframes.html

By the way, 47 Ursa Majoris is believed to be 7 billion years old. Plenty of time for life to evolve. I'd be damned if there isn't somebody up there right now as we speak.
:;):

#590 Re: Human missions » why we can't get public and political support » 2003-03-25 09:57:35

To return to the initial post. I think it's entirely a question about who those political leaders are and what they represent. Some people think private enterprise will go to space before governments do. I doubt that. The main concern for big business is the balance sheet of the upcoming quarter. It couldn't care less about a stony desert called Mars which won't pay off for generations.
Similarly, typically western, career driven, free market democracy politicians, mainly representing those same short sighted financial interests, won't ever make it to Mars.
It will have to be politicians that are prepared to lead and to infringe on the free market mechanizations, creating a bigger return later on. Keynesian minded people with a vision, the LaRouches of this world rather than the monetaristic, neoconservative Bush's.

Well, maybe Lyndon LaRouche is a little crazy, I don't know him too well, but at least he's got visions and wants to do something. At least, that's my opinion.

#591 Re: Space Policy » Chinese Space Program? - What if they get there first » 2003-03-25 09:32:28

I think this is all a fact of human existence. One's the ball starts rolling all capable political entities on Earth will want to have their share of Mars.
In such a scenario there's really no use discussing what constitution should be imposed etc, since every colony will be run according to the political culture of its terran government and these are diverse indeed.
The post cold war order is already giving in to a new line of sovereign terran super powers. These are roughly the United States, China, Russia and Europe. Each with its own agenda and potential capacity for territorial expansion within the Solar System. The first to touch down in an area will claim it for their empire, limited to the extent over which it can exert control through physical presence.
This I believe, is probably the way the dividing up of the martian hemisphere will go, haphazard and chaotic and spontaneous. Maybe stalked here and there by international agreement.

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