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Fear and Dread
(the 2 horses which pulled Mars' war chariot)
RobS (April 14 2005)
> I should add that Phobos and Deimos are helpless in the
face of Mars's strong pull. They orbit the Martian equator and
their polar axes tilt in the same direction and by the same
amount as Mars. So they have no polar ice deposits.
They don't need it. It's strongly indicated that they're a lot like extinct comet cores -enough regolith covering them to protect them from the Sun, but underneath it, they're weak foamy ices. Probably ten meters of regolith at the poles, maybe 30 in their equatorial regions. Their average density is about .28g/cc (water is 1g/cc)
And what possible use is ice at the poles on our Moon? how do we get it? How do we process it and get it back up to where it can be of any use? Far more infrastructure than anything foreseeable in the near future. Maybe 30 years down the line, if NASA gets off it's bureaucratic butt and decides to actually get something done besides meet political obligations and fly circles in LEO.
There have been proposals to get to Mars since before Von Braun's, and some bits of merit in all of them. One nearly forgotten one was to team up with the Soviets before the turn of the century.
Dr.Brian O'Leary wrote a book called "Mars 1999". It was what Zubrin in his book "the Case for Mars" would have called a grandiose mega-plan, with a "Battlestar Galactica" sized behemoth being built in orbiting hangars and such.
One thing O'Leary proposed that makes sense is to build up an initial presense at Mars' moons, for ice. Fuel for exploration, consumeables, and return to who-ever is in LEO and needs water or H2/O2 or CH4 or nitrates.
His first manned mission might not even have tried to set foot on Mars, instead concentrating on making a return on the investment ASAP by collecting ices. Tele-operate rovers and flyers and explore Mars that way, to prepare and pick a site, maybe place transponders to aid the first landing.
The key was that the first crew rotation back to Earth and every further one brought back a tank of water and other ices.
For each payload we place in LEO which is bound for GEO or interplanetary trajectories, about 45% of the mass we've put up is the oxidiser in the upper stage for kicking it beyond LEO. That goes for future Mars-bound payloads too.
Using aerobraking to get into Martian orbit, far less delta-V is needed to get to these ice-rich moons, and given their low gravity, and using aerobraking to get back into Earth orbit, even less is needed to get back than our own Moon. Add to this the ices, and even regolith if you want to process it, and they are far better targets than our Moon.
Our Moon has been called the slag-pile of the solar system, because it's "ores" are about what an asteroid miner would throw away as not economical to process further. Zubrin said that if there were concrete on the Moon, they'd mine it for the water. permanent.com reported that for every item we make out of metals from Lunar resources, we need 7 to 10 times the finished mass in water and process chemicals.
Zubrin also said the the Moon was not a stepping stone to Mars -more of a stumbling block.
Given the absolute fundamental differences, the Moon is a worse training ground for Mars explorers than the Earth, and given the delta-V needed to get there, even if there were free fuel and oxidiser waiting on the Moon, it would make more sense to go directly from Earth to Mars.
Why are we here even considering it?
I'd much rather see a first mission go to an NEA for ices and science, and maybe experience with asteroid deflection, mining, and eventual space industry.
Given that Mars is a big sexy politically popular target (with a huge science bonanza), Fear and Dread are our best hopes.
It makes no sense to use EELVs based on adaptations of designs based on 1960s long-range artillery to do orbital docking and assembly to get to our Moon. We need a true HLV to lift real payloads to Mars orbit, and the Shuttle stack -minus the orbiter- is what we've got now. Shuttle-C can start us, the Ares or Shuttle-Z can continue until we get something else.
Look over this one for info on mining and transporting ices from NEAs and Mars' moons.
http://www.neofuel.com]www.neofuel.com
See this for realistic ways Phobos and Diemos can be useful, and why they may be prefered
The Diemos Water Company
http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/the_ … pany.shtml
I'm appalled to see people seriously considering things for Lunar/Martian missions that make no sense.
Launching manned expeditions to stay on the Moon, using EELVs and rendesvous and assembly in LEO(RLEO)? LOR or LSR?
Sending to the Lunar surface a mass consisting of heatshields and landing aids meant for Earth orbit/launch safety/ISS crew fery, which are nothing but deadweight on the Moon?
Lunar Orbit Space Stations, which have been determined to be a real LOSS, since it would need continual orbit adjustment changes and crewed habitation? When a LEO station has taken us 30 years and uncounted tens of billions and still it's in doubt.
Lunar ISRU, when there is no point in using the Moon as a "steppingstone" for Mars?
Mars Direct architecture equipment modified for Lunar exploration makes more sense. SHLV development for direct throw of cargo loads to the Moon, to be met by crews makes some sense, but not in small EELV increments. 50T-LEO? We should not think of settling for less than 80-120T-LEO for Lunar missions.
This thread is not and has never been a "clearinghouse for info on the CEV". People really need to observe proper netiquette about holding to a topic, or starting a new thread.
> The problem is will it be cheap enough? For NASA to DO anything useful, then it needs to basically cut the price in half. I do not trust NASA to do this, since that would involve getting rid of signifigant numbers of engineers, which NASA has resisted doing tooth-and-nail for decades. The entire Shuttle infrastructure, much of it antique and left over from Apollo... too big and un-automated I think... is a stone round' our necks, not an asset.
Actually, the ISS is the deadweight. The ISS can't be assembled by crews put up on CEVs (Soyuz for the time being) to assemble cargo put up by cheaper non-reusable boosters because each load needs to be integrated at once by the Shuttle itself. This dooms us to http://nasaproblems.com/#Pods]flying crews unprotected in the Shuttles as we have been.
20+ missions of EVA to assemble it, and we trust that we won't have another serious problem or program holding/extending problem that requires us to break word and keep the Shuttles flying past the deadline set by the CAIB report. (does anybody believe this?)
The army of people for Shuttle should be used to develop the CEV. If they can't be tasked with that, let them go and hire new people who can use the funding from the cut Shuttle program to build a CEV. Put others of the Shuttle army to work building and launching Shuttle-C for the big loads we need to do Lunar and Martian missions. For the money they've been using to launch 4-5 Shuttles a year, they could double the rate of Shuttle-C, keeping as many people on the jobs doing more useful work.
Question for anybody who can: How much of the ISS that still needs to be put up could be done with crews up there on a Shuttle or in the station itself (after it's gotten enough to let them do something other than housekeeping) assembling loads put up on unmanned, non-reusable Shuttle-Cs? Could we "finish the ISS" any faster or with less Shuttle flights?
(I speak specifically about only the Shuttle-C, because anything else like the Ares requires new ETs, and the Z variant requires ne ETs. The Shuttle-C uses everything we're using now, including vehicle stacking and handling, the rotating service arm, and the flame trenches. Nothing new about it but the dumb expendable cargo pod with expendable engines on the back.)
SHLV digression
This is far afield from central info for the CEV...
SDV means Shuttle-derived vehicle?
So that leave us with some sort of EELV to be funded and built for the CEV and the Moon missions, and an unknown, completely left-field SHLV for Mars? Or is a Mars mission to be built up in LEO from EELV delivered pieces of no bigger than 20 tons per shot?
(nand is the acronym HLV for 20 tons or so, while anything bigger is an SHLV?)
We really think a Shuttle-C variant couldn't be built and flown for less than the Shuttle launches we've known? I find that extremely difficult to swallow. With what we accomplished from zero to Apollo 11 in such a short time, we couldn't take the Shuttle-C from the designs to a launch prototype in less than 8 years or so? This thing has been called the most studied and evolved concept in space travel history.
And it's totally useless -maybe worse than that?
Is theer a better thread for this? Something specifically related to HLV/SHLV concepts? I'd like to have a concise thread for the CEV info, but this is crazy. Every thread that is started to talk about such a limited topic devolves into everything frrom Shuttle-III to space elevators to asteroid mining.
I think it was in "Mining the Sky", Lewis reported that the last 3 Saturns were halted partway through construction. They were turned into museum pieces, the tools and dies were sold off as scrap, and one set of diagrams was sent to the national archives. He said he looked for it, but it couldn't be found. I've since heard that it's turned up, but I haven't seen anything concrete.
I'm partway through building the Estes model rocket of the Saturn-V. I've had to put it away in storage, but it's gorgeous -even more so since it's flyable! It uses their biggest engine,, and goes up 100 feet!
I want one of the old plastic model kits of it too.
Here's something interesting:
Mystery Object Orbits Earth
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002 … object.htm
Another possibility is that J002E3 is an S-IVB from Apollo 12. Unlike Apollo 14, Apollo 12's S-IVB did not crash into the Moon. The crew jettisoned it on Nov. 15, 1969, when it was nearly out of fuel. Once the astronauts were safely away, ground controllers ignited the S-IVB's engine. They meant to send the 60-ft-long tank into a Sun-centered orbit, but something went wrong; the burn lasted too long. Instead of circling the Sun, the S-IVB entered a barely-stable orbit around the Earth and Moon "much like the current orbit of J002E3,"
...
Whatever J002E3 is, it's taking a fantastic journey through the solar system--and it's not done yet. Chodas' calculations indicate that J002E3 will leave Earth again in June 2003 to resume its orbit around the Sun. "Thirty years from now," he notes, "it might come back again."
Case Gets Stronger that 'New Moon' Apollo Part
11 October 2002
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/s … 21011.html
I'm importing more on this topic from another topic that digressed into space elevators
>Human missions
http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic … 708]>>Crew Vehicles Discussion (pages 6-7)
GCNRevenger April 12 2005
> Are you out of your mind? The Skyhook kooks are insane, somehow just barely latching on to the speeding tether in the breif seconds the supersonic vehicle would have to slip within those razor-thin centimeter tollerances, moving well above the speed of sound, in the middle of the sky... The rendevous alone would be almost as hard as the ballistic missile shield being built.
As I said, look at the techniques used for landing a naval aircraft on a warship -in up to sea-state 4, at night, while there's a battle going on, when losing a plane or ship or even just an opportunity to land this particular aircraft before it runs out of fuel or loses a chance to pounce on a submarine means losing an encounter, a battle, a war, and a nation. (see the Argentinian experience with not being able to get enough wind over the bow to launch their carrier-borne Skyhawks to engage the British Carrier, a few hundred miles away while the few land-based planes which could reach it were passing overhead at the same time on their way with some of their few precious sea-skimming missiles.)
Whether it's a rotovator or hypersonic skyhook, the plane reels out a cable with a hook, and the landing area spreads a net or lattice of cables to catch it. In addition to the time given them by their close approach, they gain time by extending and maneuvering the cables/hooks to snag.
Forward said that they can extend the rendesvous time from 20-30 seconds of close approach to over 2 minutes.
At their altitude, there's no such thing as airspeed (no air...), so any aerodynamics simply don't apply to the docking/landing.
Velocities needed for getting a load to orbit is reduced by nearly half for the launch vehicles, and re-entry is only a few km/sec -about what the SpaceshipOne was designed for. Any of the X-prize contenders show the way. (and they're about as far from the vehicles in question as an F-18E is from the aeroplanes which first raced across the English channel, so yes, they're only very vaguely an indicator of what's needed.)
As it's widely seen, applying tensile structures to attaining orbit is getting the best of both worlds. Neither part of the trip up/down is required to operate in the opposite extreme environment: the vehicle doesn't need to get up to orbital velocities, and the tether doesn't need to operate in atmosphere where large fast structures have problems with split-second timing and centimeter precise maneuvering. Requirements to meet the extreme conditions are relaxed on both parts, and both parts use their unique strengths to best suit the conditions where they operate.
In any case, I was just reporting it here -it seems to be news. Others with better qualifications than any of us here have published articles in peer-reviewed scientific and engineering journals -and not gotten laughed out.
Detractors are invited to submit articles to the AIAA, AAS, NASA, and other such publications.
Tabloids and popular technology publications and lay-person internet message boards just don't matter to real engineers and scientists who are qualified to judge a proposal.
Space Elevator digression
Let's take this elsewhere: there's a previous thread over at
http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic … 7]>Science and Technology
>>Space Elevators, Ho!
the "Space Elevator" Digression
(and we should start another thread about other, more advanced methods of reaching space, since this one was hoped to be a clearing space for info on the CEV)
It depends on what you mean by "space elevator".
GCNR like everyone else who hears the term, thinks of the farthest out variant, the one that until buckytubes became laboratory curiosities, was only a mathematical exercise in absurdity.
What GCNR described, attached to the ground at the equator, extending up to a counterweight or equal length/mass past GEO, may be called the beanstalk, for obvious reasons.
Unless you're a tremendously enthusiastic fan of buckytubes, and think we could start assembling millions of tons of them right now, then the beanstalk is out -except as a mathematical exercise and "what if?" curiosity.
Another option is the hypersonic skyhook, and if the ISS were suitable as anything but a money pit, it would work, even in the 58degree orbit.
This one could possibly be built with kevlar, and some polyethylene fibers would work too.
Extend a cable down from a massive structure like a station or collection of spent tanks and rocket stages in LEO, so it drags through the rarified upper atmosphere at several km/sec.
There, hang something that looks and functions like a warship's helo arresting/landing deck.
A sub-orbital craft, like a DC-X derivative or the SpaceshipOne meets and is snagged by it during the plane's brief hyperbolic tip-over at the top of its trajectory, and is winched in. Passengers and freight are taken up the cable, while the ground hopper is simply dropped over the side within landing range of a runway.
That one works well with a minimal spaceplane crew vehicle. Launch requirements are vastly lowered, re-entry heating is minimal, and rocket equpiied plane could practically take off from an airport, boost up, and when done at the spaceport pad in the stratosphere, drop off for a powered landing at the same or any other airport.
The key is many airports, many services flying the planes, and several skyhook stations in various orbits.
The next sort is the rotovator. A tether from a ballast mass station in LEO extends a cable long enough to reach down to about 150km, and the ends spin. The rotation of the cable end is subtracted from its airspeed, so it's moving slower at the bottom, and faster at the top. A payload attached to it at the bottom needs only a little rocket power to gfet up to it, and if released at the top, carries far beyond LEO with the excess velocity it's been given.
For small payloads and small velocity increments, fiberglass might work, but better kevlar or plastic.
Yes, stipulated that for everyone o these passage upwards must be paid for. Orbital energy must be balanced out somehow. For some, electrodynamic tethers are a good, elegant option for getting free maneuvering power from the Earth's mass and magnetosphere.
For others, low thrust/high isp rockets would work well. Note that the rocket equation energy curve favors accelerating a large mass by small amounts for a long time, rather than a small mass with a high impulse for a short time.
Generally having a larger ballast mass at the center point helps.
Yes, having the rope break would be bad. No, orbit isn't like the asteroid fields in bad cheesy S.F. I like the idea of lowering an orbital debris collector from a higher orbit, to clean up the trash we've left up there.
Less launches at the top of self-disintegrating rockets based on World War 2 long range artillery would also be a big help.
Hence the space elevator. Astronauts themselves don't like the phrase "blast-off". It's time we started doing something about finding a civilized way into space.
Several links
Tethers Unlimited
www.tethers.com]www.tethers.com
Bootstrapping Space Communities with Micro-Rovers and High-tensile Bootlaces
http://www.ari.net/moon/forum/mp/mp-4/b … strap.html
Space Elevator group at Yahoo (see their links/bibliography)
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/space-ele … -elevator/
The problem with the ESA/CNES Hermes is that it grew into a "Mini-Shuttle", a camel (beast designed by a comittee). They wanted it to do all the missions a Shuttle could, and stay on-orbit for 90 days or whatever.
A "shuttle" doesn't do that. A PLS crew launch/landing assuredly safe vehicle doesn't do all that.
It puts all its capabilities into carrying people with as close to asured safe recovery as possible. Instead of payload bay, robotic arms, EVA-prep areas, and comsumeables for 4 people for 3 months, it has landing gear and airbags/chutes. It has survival gear for arctic/land/desert/ocean abort and landing sites. It's not stripped down to bare bones so it can have any useful payload on top of all the various equipment all these other requirements has. The total weight you can put on top of a booster is dedicated to keeping people alive and healthy no matter what happens from sitting fueled at zero altitude-zero speed on the pad to hypersonic abort halfway to orbit.
It's definitely easier to do this without a payload bay and communications satellite and everything.
That weight creep is what killed Hermes. No version of the Arianne launcher could carry it, so funds had to be diverted to a new booster development program, and together, they ran out of funding. A good example of two designs chasing each other's numbers around in circles, getting ever bigger.
They went ahead with the newer versions of the Arianne V booster, but the wished for wet-dream of a super do-everything Shuttle died of obesity before it was born.
Except for small stuff that can take the place of people inside, it doesn't work to put a lot of payload capacity into a crew vehicle. Reusability adds a lot of complexity, making it manned adds more, and making it big enough for cargo drives both of them up. You don't need to give a satellite as much protection as crew, and you don't want to spend as much on cargo. You can insure a satellite, but you don't want to treat a crew the same.
I don't believe that any kind of technology development is going to change that, unless we get super-efficient and clean and reliable fusion powered rockets and everything is so well known and used that we have no doubts about a "Shuttle II" or "III" that again is designed to be a combination hotel/research vessel/industrial park/free-market cargo hauler/hypersonic exo-atmospheric interceptor & satellite inspector & Fractional Orbit bomber all at once.
Separate vehicles for different requirements. Why carry ocean abort survival gear beyond LEO? The point about free-return aborts is good, but I don't think it makes sense to design every CEV as if we expect it to come in at better than escape speed. Is our ISS crew carrier going to be designed so that it can be easily and cheaply be built instead as an interplanetary speed re-entry vehicle? Are the requirements so similar that one vehicle frame design can do it all? Isn't it chaper to build different capsules instead of an F-35 Joint Strike Fighter?
What, modular construction so that extra comsumeables can be added for interplanetary flight? A lifeboat doesn't need to be continuously habitable for days and days, in space, drawing power and cycling air refrigerating fuels. Better not.
The Shuttle is the first and only crewed launch vehicle that didn't have crew escape. I recall reading testimony from Michael Coates saying that he remembers sitting strapped into a Shuttle (in '84, I think) while a hydrogen fire burned below them. They all knew that if it went out of control, hey'd never be able to get away in time, so there they sat. With every other launcher, they can jet up and away in seconds (because it's not a 100 ton behomoth that needs a perfectly controlled runway landing or it's destroyed).
The HL-20 was designed so that normally, it could land at any commercial airport, plus parachutes and floatation bags for a water splashdown from a pad abort. I'd personally like to see even more payload given to a supply of fuel and a jet engine like the MiG-105 or Pioneer Rocketplane for cruise, go around, and self-ferry. If the landing gear don't work, get down near landing/stalling speed, pull the handle and plop it down on the airbags.
Again, you've got to be really careful of trying to design it to do too many things, but even if it only carries 4 people, extra capacity to get them down safely fits the beast's only design criteria.
> My, getting into the Bush-Bash in the first paragraph
No, I was bashing, if you want to call my criticizing that, the halfway thought-out "space plan" that showed very little sign of having engineering or aeronautical input. (It also immediately showed no progress or support from Bush's administration, and doesn't to this day.)
I note that you didn't say anything about my comment, other than atributing political motivations to it. Anything to say I'm wrong in my assessment of it?
> No actually, not alot work was done on the HL-20/42
concept... No where near a prototype.
I never said it did. Only that they later seem to have ignored what was done, and proceded with the older SLI spaceplane and the CEV without referencing it. Standard procedure, I guess.
And there was more done than aerothermodynamic programs and wind-tunnel models and the plywood model.
And only a fool would think that the "rollout" of the "human factors mock up" of the HL-20 was a flight prototype, and only a bigger fool criticizes it as if it were assumed to be so.
> The problem with HL-20 is that it would weigh about
double what a small capsule would, which basically means you
could either carry wings & wheels or rocket fuel to get home
in a single EELV throw. Pick one.
Yes, for a given throw-weight to orbit, a booster could toss up a slightly bigger ballistic capsule. No news there.
The question we could get into, is if a winged/lifting body vehicle has merits over a capsule. Granted also, it's easier to see a non-reusable capsule, and assume greater cost for a plane, since it is reusable. Again, it's worth debating either way.
I note that the HL-20 was designed to be thrown by a later model Titan booster, and the all-up weight was just over ten tonnes. Variations of present unmanned boosters could handle it without a problem. Do we need more than this thing's payload in a PLS Crew safety vehicle?
The HL-42 launch mass was about 30 tonnes, so it's more problematic.
What sort of capsule were you thinking of? I note that the Soyuz TMA is about 7.2 tonnes.
>> ...assumed that there wouldn't be too much graft and
extra unnecessary things attached to it just to satisfy the
contractors in this or that congressional district..."
>
> Yeah yeah conspiracy to jack up prices astronomically bla
bla bla... this refrain is getting old.
It is getting old to see our progress in space hampered again and again by political pandering in the government procurement process.
But I guess Uncle Sam is really a lilly-white pure virgin, and no such thing goes on in our government.
Let's ignore that and concentrate of learning about the vehicle options.
I for one don't like the HTO piggyback, MAKS type variation. Too much complexity it seems, especially since it hasn't been done (more than the SS1/White Knight or Pegasus), and it assumes adding main propulsion to the spaceplane which as designed cuts costs and complexity by concentrating on carrying crew safely with as little innovation as possible. IMO, I always thought the Spiral/System 49/Bizan/MAKS planes might have amounted to something if they'd stuck with vertical stacking rocket launch, as they have plenty of experience with.
Then again, maybe an expendable engine package attached to the back of the tank or to the plane as the HL-20 was intended to have the booster adaptor and escape rockets attached... Sort of the Bizan without the recoverable main engines.
The System 49 also seems simpler with the orbiter stacked atop the in-line rocket stages, more like the Spiral.
I also don't like the concept of taking the crew launch vehicle -something specifically built to assure crew safety throughout launch, orbit, and landing- out of LEO. That's one of my doubts about the "CEV" multi-use crew vehicle. Stick with LEO and launch safety, and don't try ramming it into the atmosphere at interplanetary transfer velocities.
That was another of my first points I wanted to discuss here: is there any sense in designing one vehicle to be adaptable to do all that, when what we need is a safe crew space launch vehicle?
(edited comment)
To GCNR: please please if you can, avoid the snide comments and witticisms at the expense of other posters. Some of us here don't have our egos involved and don't feel the need to appear superior at all costs and in all ways, about any and all topics.
I note that text-based writing has the tendency of being able to appear more harsh and unforgiving, and I'm trying to take it into account. Please try to be more polite, is all.
(No, you didn't hurt anybody's feelings. Get over yourself.)
A few things about some points discussed here.
First, for going to the Moon as practice for Mars; as Zubrin pointed out in "the Case for Mars", it's nonsensical. Simply saying that they both have lower gravity doesn't say enough. Mars is more like the Earth than the Moon in that, so we're a lot better off practicing here. Similarly, using the Moon as a "stepping stone" for Mars doesn't make sense either. You'd have to launch more from Earth to get to the Moon than to get to Mars directly. Even if there were pure fuel sitting on the Moon, you'd need more to get there and then boost out to Mars. He shows that the Moon is more of a dead weight on the way to Mars than a stepping stone.
Next, about defacing things by mining;
During the NASA Ames 1970s Summer Studies on Space Settlements and industries, they worked out real hard numbers for mining the Moon and building a space factory and a colony for 10,000 workers. At the end of 20 years, the colony is finished and ready to turn its efforts to constructing things. At that time, the mining "scar" on the Moon is about 3 meters deep, about the size of a football field -not even visible to the best telescopes. During the whole effort, a mining engineer figured that it would barely keep one tele-operated bulldozer occupied.
Another way of looking at space mining is illuminated by a numbers exercise done by Jerry Pournelle to answer the awful question "Why do all that in space when there's so much needed down here?" He said "If we want to help out the poor peoples and developing nations, how about we start by providing them access to raw materials resources to match the richest nations in the West?"
He took figures for the annual metals production in the US, divided per-capita, multiplied by the world's population, and rolled it into a ball of cheap 3% ores (very cheap compared to the asteroids, some of which are over 80% Ni-Fe).
It came out to a ball about 7km diameter.
I have to point out that the Asteroids are by far the best targets for mining. Mars is at the bottom of a deep gravity hole. Anything produced there is used there, as in ISRU “Living off the Land”.
In addition to the difficulty of getting energy for processes on the Moon, and the poor metals content there, is the lack of volatiles. For every ton of finished metals from Lunar ores, you need from 7 to 10 times the finished mass in water and process chemicals. Far better than bringing it from Earth is to get it from NEAs. So to mine the Moon, you go to the asteroids first, but once you do, you have a source of far better resources. The Moon is not much use for anything but science for its own sake, and tourism (In a chamber on the Moon which is pressurized to Earth sea-level, you could literally fly with pair of wings strapped to your arms!) For astronomy, you want to go to deep space. Long baseline interferometry in space means far more for observations than any benefits from putting a telescope on the Moon.
The immediate benefits from mining resources in space is just for doing things in space. For any payload we put into LEO which is going to GEO or interplanetary space, fully 45% of what we’ve put up is the oxidizer in the upper stage for kicking it beyond LEO. If you can get fuels in space, then we can put up that much more payload. Simple solar ovens can bake volatiles out. We just need the infrastructure to refuel things in space.
Next is simple structures for building things. Over 75% of a satellite’s mass is simple rolled and stamped metals which could be relatively easily produced in readily designed space manufacturing facilities. That means even less needs to be lifted from Earth. Next is the revolution that’s possible from building and integrating satellites. Present telecommunications satellites are severely limited by the amount of power available from solar panels, and the size of antennae which must all be remotely unfurled after the thing separates from the upper stage (a common failure point, BTW). Wire and foil for antennae are also fairly easily built, and with a huge antenna and ample power, and antenna array in GEO could pick up a cel phone from the ground. That’s a relatively early and huge source of profit, to drive and support the space industry.
A good article about building up space infrastructures is this article by Bruce Mackenzie, formerly exec director of the Mars Society.
Bootstrapping Space Communities
http://www.ari.net/moon/forum/mp/mp-4/b … strap.html
He makes good points about starting small, and don’t think of sending people to the Moon from the start or maybe not for a long while, because that drives the cost and complexity up very steeply. Tele-operated rovers can do a lot of the work to start using the resources to gradually build up the effort from what little you can get with a small operation. Sure, you’ll have some losses from breakdowns which you can’t fix using rovers, but they’re small and cheap. Salvage or repair what you can, and stockpile the rest as spare parts which might not be fully recovered until you can send people on visits to do what the rovers can’t. I’d suggest the same sort of thing on an NEA, except that the time-lag makes it work better on the Moon. Just go to a water-rich NEA first, to attach motors to bring it back to high Earth orbit while your factory is being built up.
http://www.permanent.com definitely has a lot of good information about all of this, and see also http://www.neofuel.com for mining asteroids for volatiles.
Mars is a good starting point, because as Zubrin and Mars Direct shows, you can do it without too much up-front effort. The starting “profit” is science, particularly life. All this about the Moon and asteroids means a lot, but Mars is a big sexy politically popular target.
In fact Mars’ moons are good first mission targets too (Fear and Dread were the 2 warhorses which pulled Mars’ war chariot). They have a lot of water and volatiles, and they’d serve very well as immediate start-up fuels mining bases and Martian exploration bases. Borrowing from Brian O’Leary’s book “Mars 1999”, the first manned missions might not even plan on landing on Mars. Just tele-robotically explore it while building up the water mine.
The Deimos Water Company
http://www.spacefuture.com/archive/the_ … pany.shtml
GCNRevenger Feb. 05 2005
> Shuttle is going away, it doesn't matter if NASA wanted to fly it any more or not, change is going to happen reguardless.
>
> The use of a capsule on top of an expendable rocket has been a sound proven concept for travel in Cislunar space. The rocket that will carry it pretty much already exsists, and only requires modifications. The basic designs of the older capsules could even be dug up.
>
> Small reuseable spaceplanes, intended to fly often and small crews (3-4), do not have a worthwhile destination to justify their higher development costs and reduced flexibility. There is no way such a vehicle can be relied on safely return from Lunar orbit without a revolutionary heat shield material. Nor is a spaceplane with a huge drop tank really reuseable either.
>
> A large reuseable spaceplane, that we will ultimatly need some day, likewise has no destination to fly to in order to justify it. It would also incur extreme development costs.> ...So, the only option that makes sense and that NASA can afford to fulfill VSE is to go with expendable capsules and rockets. There will be no spaceplane involved because it isn't practical return it to Earth from the Moon, it is less efficent with its wheels and wings, and will cost more to develop.
More on this later...
Where did they get the idea to make a crew vehicle for assuredly safe human flight -safe abort throughout the flight regime-, and then take it beyond LEO to the Moon and Mars? This has always sounded like a White House PR flack's idea (basically the entire "Bush Space Plan" in a nutshell), with little or no engineering or aerospace merits.
Any idea that retrofitting such a vehicle could be feasible or cost competetive compared to a safe crew ASV (Assured Safe Vehicle), and separate specialized mission specific vehicles?
I still think they should have taken a better look at the HL-20. Yes, the optimistic cost estimaes for it assumed that there wouldn't be too much graft and extra unnecessary things attached to it just to satisfy the contractors in this or that congressional district, but there was alot of good sensible work done on it.
http://astronautix.com/craft/hl20.htm]h … t/hl20.htm
http://astronautix.com/craft/hl42.htm]h … t/hl42.htm
Other things of interest
http://astronautix.com/craft/soyuztma.h … yuztma.htm
http://astronautix.com/craft/moose.htm] … /moose.htm
http://www.astronautix.com/craft/esaacr … saacrv.htm
http://www.astronautix.com/craftfam/res … rescue.htm
This has been gone over a few times on another thread here
Interplanetary transportation
» Nuclear Propulsion - The best way for space
And I'm sorry, but Orion still has a lot of promise.
How many technical breakthroughs are required for GCNR or VASIMR?
and the main objection to Orion's feasibility is the cost of the pulse bombs and the difficulty of landing it?
please.
And Orion is not only best for lifting from the ground.
3 weeks transfers to Mars, with 45%+ of the IMLEO being payload.
I haven't seen any qualified technical publications countering General Atomics' finding that the cost of the Saturn-V booster was the greatest part of the cost of their 10 meter, ~500 ton, 8 person ship design.
More recent NASA looks at it (dubbing it EPPP) improve the isp by nearly triple the original ~1800. and still the hardest technical challenge is some way to toss kegs aft at ~10 meters/sec and recoating the pusher plate with grease mist.
I haven't heard any way that GCNR or NSWR beat that.
At least, I insist that it not be laughed out of consideration! At this early stage, by amateurs on a 'net discussion board!
Personally, I don't think very much of the 16,000 ton+ ground launch monsters (until somebody can show me that it could be clean enough, and then it's instant interplanetary civilization time!). Not that I think little or poorly of it, but I don't include it in my thoughts very much, because of the space-assembled HLV-boosted option.
Even if you don't like to allow the consideration of the old 10 meter design, which starting pulsing it at ~80 km, it still has a lot of promise.
Six or so HLV shots to LEO with modular sections corresponding to the old 10 meter ship, and we've got a hell of an interplanetary capability. Any large scale interplanetary mission architecture I've seen starts with a similar IMLEO, and nothing I've seen that's as near term offers similar performance.
Long term even, if technical improvements come about allowing the feasibility of things that are more exotic than "Old Bang-Bang", Orion still stays in consideration because any of these breakthroughs would only make some form of nuclear pulse even that much more attractive -even a fission bomb initiated design of some sort.
100,000 ton interplanetary liners with thousands of people setting out for a 3 month voyage to the colonies around the Jovian moons with stopovers at Mars before getting back to Earth orbit -without refueling en-route?
Not at all far-out or even unsuitable to me.
And shorter term, I refuse to plan around appeasing people like the hysterical nuclear-phobic nuts who claimed that a booster malfunction during the launch of Cassini would have given 10,000 cases of cancer to everyone alive. I read one such nutcase (in this guy's case, I don't hesitate to use this kind of flanguage) who said that there's no moral difference between enjoying never-before-seen images of another planet from a space probe using nuclear power, and getting your rocks off watching a PGM hit an Iraqi bunker.
I will not tolerate planning our future in space as if they have a reasonable voice in policy and public education about space and the hope and promise of space. If they want to chain themselves to the launch pad to protest a probe that has RTGs or thermal warmers, let 'em have at it.
>A small number of warheads will be retained by the IAEA to deter against additional nations developing nuclear weapons (this idea is a direct descendant of Henry Stimson's idea to put nuclear weapons under international control.)
Didn't Oppenheimer and basically all the Manhattan Project people urge this?
It's not a new idea: if deterrance and peacekeeping is the purpose of nuclear weapons, then this is surely a multinational mission, so nuclear forces could be put under multinational control.
This enrages nationalists (rednecks call you commie, leftists call you totalitarian fascist, all call you traitor)
From the CDI
Orion will rise! (part 1)
Orion Can Rise! (part 2
Cyclers have been looked at for a long time. The problem is that Orbits of the planets don't line up conveniently. Unless the station/cycler has a lot of Delta-V to burn every orbit, it won't meet a planet every time is comes to the planet's orbit around the Sun.
Any rocket uses lots of propellant to push the station (expecially if it's shielded), and ion drive just doesn't have the thrust to do the job.
One way around this which has been suggested is the Magnetic Sail. It uses solar power for energy, and requires no propellant to be used for maneuvers.
Another comment about this is that the cycler follows Hohman transfer orbits, taking many months on each leg of a trip. Granted, the crews get shuttled to the cycler on cheap taxis, and they spend the trip in full gravity (spin the habs) and full shielding (~hundreds of tons per passenger if using mass shielding, or magnetic sails protect against solar radiation but not cosmic rays).
They're still sitting in a can, waiting for months between destinations.
If we have a fuel production infrastructure in place, to make nuclear pulse rocket thrust-bombs, then it's a few weeks to Mars, 3 months to Jupiter in huge luxury liners.
Either old fashioned fission bomb Orion, or maybe Daedalus or ICAN or the newer "Mini-Orion" if possible.
dicktice Mar. 17 2003
> Radioactive plumes and exhusts on Earth and/or within our atmosphere...? I still remember when Dyson tossed out all those whacko ideas back in the 1950s. With crazies like you guys--who needs terrorist planners?
Get over it. I never talked about wildly proposing a ground launch, and to hell with any arguments. I don't like the idea, unless it's possible to guarantee no fallout.
I also talk extensively about multinational controls & cooperation. How is this conducive to terrorists? I don't think Al-Queda or the IRA or PLO has a UN delegation.
OTOH, I steadfastly maintain that there is no good reason to not use it in space above LEO. None at all.
If you know about Dyson's thinking then, then you should also be familiar with the 10 and 20 meter designs.
How about big Orion interplanetary ships like the "Super" built, fueled, and used in space? If we ever get long term off-planet human presences around trhe solar system, there'll be large scale industries, and every reason to use old-fashioned fission bomb Orion in them. (Will antimatter ever be as cheap as an A-bomb?)
Contrary to many others, I don't see NPR (Nuclear Pulse Rockets) main strength being ground launch. It takes only 8km/sec to get into LEO, but another ~50km/sec to get to Mars in 6 weeks.
Many things get us into orbit, but interplanetary space is where Orion really is needed.
soph April 08 2003
> using a NERVA engine, it would be a 12 week round trip to Mars. If you want me to do the math, I can. It's pretty simple, really.
Please do. Show also that it's done with ~45% of the starting mass in HEO being cargo delivered to the destination.
Show that, contrary to all the design studies to date, it can have above 10,000 second isp, and high thrust, with technology readily understood in the '60s, and improved upon today. No contained/controlled plasma, no high temp superconductors in close proximity to plasma.
April 07 2003
> Orion is blocked by the Test Ban Treaty, which bans firing nuclear weapons in space. Orion's bomblets classify as nuclear weapons.
Ever notice that the treaties are able to be modified by the signatories, or any signatory can pull out at will? That's what treaties are for. If there's ever a need for the capabilities conferred by Orion-style NPRs, there'll be political clout too.
As to protests about details like magazine capacity, power generation, etc, look over the old designs and try to find something they've overlooked.
soph Mar. 09 2003
> A fusion engine, in the 20-40 year future, may allow 1 week to a month trips to Mars.
The problem there, is that fusion has been 20-40 years in the future, just about for the last 40 years. We don't even know for certain if a sustained fusion reaction is possible short of a star.
Orion uses atom bombs. The hardest parts of a space-use Orion ship are a giant grease mist sprayer, to coat the pusher plate between pulses!
Compare that also to VASIMR... NTR may be more readily buildable, because every part of it has seen use in a rocket motor to date.
NTR and VASIMR both suffer compared to Orion in performance. Nothing else as close to coming off the drawing boards is as realistically feasible as Orion -and has anything like the incredible performance.
> Orion, I just don't see the need for.
No need for big strongly built ships, built with updated 1960s technology, that outperform anything else as easily built, as well as just about everything else that's only now theoretically possible as a lab curiosty?
What do you look for in a ship?
> It's inefficient
It's simple. The fuel production is a bit of a problem in the far future, when we've already used up the extra decomissioned warheads. I'm prepared to say we'll deal with that when we get there.
Also, projections show that the bigger space-only ships have potential for isp of between 10,000-1,000,000 seconds. That's in the range of ion propulsion, vastly better than NTR, better thrust and much simpler than VASIMR.
> perhaps useful for speed bursts in space
Uh, yeah, speed bursts with huge robust ships, with over 45% of the initial mass being cargo. Like a battleship able to cross the Atlantic at 35+ knots, carrying thousands of tons of cago, with the crew in big roomy luxury-class quarters, with ltl or no fuel being burned from its bunkers. Sorry, but passenger liners are out of business...
> but you need a huge pusher plate for it
Maybe not what you mean, but I actually like this detraction of Orion I've heard: "It needs a big huge pusher plate made of steel, and it needs lots of heavy structure to hold together. Lots of waste mass in all that"
Correction: The pusher plate & heavy structures aren't mass penalties, but enablers. They let us use the raw simple power of the atomic bomb, and at that, they have plenty of power left over for a vast proportion of the ships mass to be useful payload sent on quick trajectories.
I like the (ability to use/requirement for) strong battleship structure. Throw in lots of other "waste mass" in the form of redundant sysems, alternate pathways & conduits, tools, spare parts, machine & repair shops.
> which means that you really can't make it a hybrid. It is a rather restrictive design.
Wht else do you want? Extra power production? Toss in a couple or RTGs and some solar panels folded up in the 30 tool lockers spaced throughout the ship. Add batteries in (each primary and the 3 redundant separately placed) power junction boxes, with computers dedicated to power handling built in. The ships' 4 primary redundant fission plants can be provided with parts commonality and lots of extra space to work around them via telerobotics.
What- it's too much mass? We only have 6000 tons of payload left of our 10,000 ton ship built up in HEO from NEA materials... What to do? Add more tools!
All this is survivability, which is the primary payload.
Saw something on this tread about the radiation hazard to the crew.
They placed the crew at the top of the stack, with all the mass f the ship in between them and the blasts. Fallout isn't a problem when you're going away from the blast site at high speed.
NASA took a newer look at nuclear pulse recently. They seem to have avoided bad PR by calling it "Externally Pulsed Plasma Propulsion with no mentio of nuclear pwer. Their ship was called Gabriel, and the simplest cheapest version was a 10 meter module boosted into space via chemical HLVs (just as the 10 meter Orion). It was the least efficient, but it outperformed everything else we could build.
Interestingly, they said that the fast transit times available meant that the exposure to space radiation was so brief that EPPP meant less radiation exosure for the crew.
soph (Jan. 09 2003)
> We're talking about human development, im not talking about the earth here, im talking about the human economy.
>
> if human industry is moved off the planet, the human economy will stagnate
As I wrote earlier:
>... (resources from space, no heavy industry on the planet) population growth will... eventually maybe stabilize with only a few billion on the planet, with hundreds of billions more living in space and occasionally visiting the enormous wilderness park the Earth has become.
Tourism.
As the only place humans can walk unprotected under the Sun and see an honest sunset or a forest which is seeded, weeded, and maintained entirely by biota & weather instead of micro-managed as in a space colony (one good reason to doubt that a truly self-sufficient, fully self-sustaining closed ecological artificial biosphere is possible was an early detraction of space colonies: doubt that a closed system could be made to function which was so small)
I have doubts about terraforming other planets, mainly the physiological harm of low G and the overall uncertainty of getting sufficiently livable results to make the project worthwhile.
Also the fact that liquid water and free oxygen would totally destroy any science the planet offers. How long before we can say for sure that the way the planet's evolved over 4.5 billion years has absolutely nothing more to teach us?Terraforming strikes me as the Vogons, destroying a planet to make way for a hyperspatial bypass.
The only place in the known universe where you can dig up fossils! (unless Mars, Europa, or something else turns up anything interesting).
Certainly the only place you can uncover signs of ancient human civilizations (unless Hoagland is right about Cydonia!).
Think of a space colonist from out in the Belt walking through Egypt or Stonehenge or the ancient Amazonian forest, and tell me there's no market for it.
They say the first planet we terraform will be the Earth, putting it back the way it was before we started burning forests and mining coal. Probably weather control, and maybe tame the volcanoes and other disasters.
The human economy will be far far larger and more vital than today, due to the immense resources available and the population in space habitats in our K=2 civilization. Earth will be important, but maybe not dominant, and I doubt that there'll be anyone who won't want to walk the Green Hills of Earth at least once.
> It would be quite trivial to show cases where nuclear energy is just as evil as coal or other forms. The only truely benign energy source is solar. Anyone pretending otherwise is in major denial.
I've never heard an answer on the environmental impacts of widrespread solar: production of the cels involves metals leaching and etching, with lots of nasty runoffs. Do all solar cel makers take care of their wastes as well as the "green" packaging implies? What about disposal/recycling of dead cels?
I too favor solar cels on every rooftop and cartop, but covering the entire unused surface area of trhe continent isn't trivial, and how does solar & wind provide for the energy needs of a modern mobile industrial society?
Build nuclear plants to use up the economically mined U and Th ores, then build breeders to deal with most of the waste issues (getting more energy from reprocessed spent fuel than was produced spending that fuel).
Take the Pu end product from the breeders, and make thousands of identical atom bombs to be launched into space in special containment and loaded into Orion space ships (thus blowing our radioactive waste problem off into the solar wind).
These ships plant seed factories at NEAs and maintain interplanetary transportation infrastructure at least as long as needed to allow space resources and infrastructure to be proven, so they can start replacing power generation and transmission industries on the planet with Solar Power Satellite systems, and replacing heavy polluting industries on the planet with space industries. No more power plants, mines, or refineries on the planet.
Use SPS power to produce H2 from seawater, to react with atmospheric CO2 to make CH4 (natural gas) for consumer & industrial fuel needs.
Build nuke power stations and bombs, to save the planet from heavy industry!
> Bill White has it right on target. American interest in space in and heck, science in general, is at an all time low. It would take some sort of space race to get us interested in space again.
See www.marssociety.org for one organization which has the intention and stated purpose to kick-start exactly that. See Zubrin on public enthusiasm for Mars: the number of people who hit the NASA pathfinder mission website in the week the probe landed being greater than the number of people who vote -greater than the number of people actively either for or against a balanced budget, campaign finance reform, gun control, and abortion combined!
CBS bought the exclusive rights to the Atlanta Olympics for $2 billion... and see this article for more such ideas. "Those who think it's not possible should get out of the way of those who are doing it" --Chinese proverb
> John Frazer says that nuclear is basically necessary for routine [human] Mars travel. Though at the moment it may be true, I'm confident there will be solar breakthroughs which are cheaper, and more effective than nuclear, at least in the inner solar system.
With nearly 50% of the mass in LEO being cargo to Mars on a 6 week trajectory?!? Show a single shred of evidence for believing that kind of breakthrough is physically possible -with sunlight... (and I said routine, robust & rugged, above all rapid human space travel.)
> NASA has shown that they don't need nuclear to get the job done, and NASA has shown that probes are the best candidates for planetary exploration
Only because as you said, they've not made a large, goal-oriented human space program part of their goals.
Chemicals may be fine for sending probes on multi-year trajectories.
And probes are not the best for planetary exploration.
NASA did a study: planetologists studied an interesting and varied area of the Mohave and catalogued all the interesting finds and the conclusions to be made from that evidence. They next released several other teams of scientists to study that patch of desert through telerobotics. Truly dismal results.
Zubrin wrote that you can hardly hike through the Rocky Mountains without finding a good area to search for and find fossils, but you could drop a thousand rovers into the Rockies and they wouldn't find a fossil until the next ice age -and they wouldn't be able to outrun the glaciers.
Carol stoker did a presentation on this at the 1st M.S. conference: she showed images from Sagan Memorial Station (the pathfinder lander) showiwng some interesting geologicalclues the cameras could see. The rover had no hope of ever getting to these rocky outcrops a couple of km away, but a human could have strolled over to them within an hour of landing there.
Here's a design for an SSTO vehicle, and the payolad is most of the structural mass on the launch pad as a station volume.
Take everything the 90 day report talked about, and junk it. Take the ISS and junk it, along with the Shuttle -we'll use the simplest , cheapest, and most robust way to launch a station.
This design is for a multi-use station volume (sub-divided into rooms & such). Apply the same principle to a hangar volume.
I point out that a HLV-boosted, space assembled Orion ship doesn't need this. All you need is a place for tired crew to recuperate from EVA shifts, a workbench and control terminal for robotic assembly aids, and power, waste heat rejection, and communications. The hab volumes for the ship itself will do perfectly since all this equipment will be going on the ship. Possibly very little beside the ship itself gets launched to support it.
For much of the Orion ship, <a href="www.astronautix.com/lvs/shuttlec.htm" target="_blank">Shuttle-C</a> will do, or the Ares or equivalent.
For a station volume, the historic way is to put the station volume, mostly completely ready to go, on top of the booster. The first crew meets it soon after launch, and opens solar panels, attaches radiators, and is open for business.
Only if you deliberately design it to be overly expensive does it cost tens of billions to get what we've got in the ISS (as the 90-day report designed things too).
Correction: the people who've spent long times in zero G have been screwed over. Hard, and without lubricant.
The US astronaut Shannon Lucid is usually taken as an example that you can live in zero G. Sure, she walked off the Shuttle, but she still suffered serious bad effects, and she's probably still not back up to her original calcium levels, and her immune system is still probably not recovered, nor her heart, blood cell count, etc. Others who've spent longer times are in worse shape.
As I said, we have no proof whatsoever that low G won't be harmful. Only wishful thinking and hopes say that we'll be able to live & be healthy in low G, and it's irresponsible to speak as if we know for certain, and to fail to plan as if we'll need to provide full G.
Space colonies are taken as a far out solution: contrary, they are the conservative approach. Any other option stipulates satisfactory solutions to things about which we have nothing at all in solid evidence.
> in my opinion, to build an interplanetary colony would
be wasting time and resources that we would better be
exploiting by living on the planets the resources come from.
In your opinion. Let's see references to peer-reviewed scientific papers you've written about the subject. Have you successfully refuted the findings of the 1970s NASA space settlement studies? (not even Zubrin, who comes right out and ridicules the space settlement concept can say this)
As well, you seem to say that we'll mine planets, to build space colonies. Nowhere did I give that impression, and I challenge anyone to show a serious source for that opinion. Asteroids and small moons. Low or practically zero gravity, endless cheap solar energy.
Asteroids are the prime area for colonies off-Earth. Easy access to resources, easy access to energy, convenient access to the nearby space colony, where the people live in better conditions than they'll get on any other planet besides Earth (and better conditions than some of the Earth as well)
"a new colony between planets" isn't going to solve Earth's population problems certainly. Neither is any number of planetary colonies (small, weak, and starving, since they're limited to the surface of an inhospitable planet, and there are only a few planets even remotely suitable)
How about millions or billions of interplanetary colonies? all the way from the orbit of Mercury to the Oort cloud (all it takes is mirror)
Actually, that's the wrong way to look at it. It's a silly concept to think of shipping vast amounts of people off-planet in sardine can ships to space colonies. Rather, access to space resources will eventually allow us to raise the standard of living of everyone to lower the population growth rates. When everyone on Earth has a standard of living better than all but the richest of today (resources from space, no heavy industry on the planet) population growth will fall, and eventually maybe stabilize with only a few billion on the planet, with hundreds of billions more living in space and occasionally visiting the enormous wilderness park the Earth has become.
The whole point of advocating Nuclear pulse propulsion here is that if we don't keep it favorably in mind as the mid-to-long-term way to go, then we'll forever be held up because we need to spend billions on R&D for new ways to live with long duration space flight.
With nuclear pulse more than any other option, long duration space flight becomes a thing of the past -at least certainly for travel to Mars. With 6 weeks trajectories (~100km/sec delta-V missions with less mass in the "propellant" than as useful cargo), it's a stroll in the park.
For instance, using nuclear pulse engines, the crew gets less radiation exposure than with a chemically powered ship!
While nuclear is unnecessary for "relatively cheap and efficient transport between Earth and Mars", it is absolutely essential for rapid, rugged, and routine travel.
The first explorers can risk their lives on flimsy, slow and dangerous chemically powered interplanetary stages, but by the time 3 Mars Direct missions have flown, we've got the political clout and funding to build a real interplanetary ship -even if it's only a 10 meter engine module with HLV lifted parts assembled to it.
> in the short term, why bother with the expense
of development and production, as well as serious
political opposition to nuke powered rockets?
Quoting the article about Orion by Flora, Dyson estimated in the '60s that over half of the cost would be the Saturn-V booster.
Even if he's off by several times, the cost of developing a small NPR driven ship for a space-only use Orion stage is entirely within reason.
The extremist political opposition is going to eliminate themselves for us. Once we have an interest in space (say, the first few Mars Direct missions comitted to), they'll either be overwhelmed by reason (you can't hurt anything in interplanetary space by setting off a string of sub-kiloton bombs), or they'll be made irrelevant by their insistence that there's no moral difference between building, stockpiling, and using city-killing nuclear weapons, and a peaceful probe using a bit of Pu for a power source (as protestors of the Cassini mission said).
I for one, don't care to even dignify that viewpoint by not thinking of using nuclear power in space. Minimize them from the start, and with every utterance on the way to space, because they're not worth any more of our attention.
http://nuclearspace.com/a_orion_and_empire.htm
robcwillis,Jan. 06 2003 we should remember that nuclear power is unnecessary for relatively cheap and efficient transport between Earth and Mars.
... in the short term, why bother with the expense of development and production, as well as serious political opposition to nuke powered rockets? We must expose claims like "We can't go to Mars yet because there has not been enough funding for advanced drive research" or "We can't go to Mars yet because I need millions of dollars for hyperbaric plant growth research" for what they really are.Once the programme is well underway, several manned landings have been made, and the momentum is unstoppable, then we can get to work on increased utilization of nuclear power in space.
soph (Dec. 18 02)
> the public doesnt like nuclear power. so, lets say
we send up an orion-class ship piecemeal with HLV's.
> then, we have a facility put the parts together (it
could be designed to have parts that fit together, duh).
Big parts. To Orion standard, they're built tough & big. Fasteners are huge nuts & bolts, easily handled in suit gloves.
The ship itself is designed sectionally, so the crew can take it apart at the destination asteroid. The habs and shop tools they lived with on the way out become part of the base they're building.
The facility which assembles the ship is actually parts of the ship itself! Habitation, EVA prep, tool handling, cranes & winches & arms etc.
Again, a carnival ride arrives packaged in a trailer. Certain parts come out first, to make steps & ladders for the workers to climb around on. The motors which drive the ride help winch parts together. Designed so people can make money without requiring engineering degrees from the workers, parts are big, dumb & simple.
After the show's over (all the money fleeced out of the marks), the parts go back to being ladders & scaffolds to take the thing down, pack it all away usisng the parts themselves to hold the trailer load together, and off it rolls.
> we send up the nuclear fuel and engines such
that they are not active, and can't affect the
environment (i dont know if nuclear fuel can be
frozen?).
Nuclear 'fuel' is a metal. Very dense, a golf ball weighs about a kilo.
Specially shaped so that chemical explosives ram it together to make it temporarily just a bit more dense, so the neutrons bouncing around in it make it go BOOM! (see your local terrorist or high school physics whiz kid for details).
This application of nuclear technology -bomb making- is put to special use in an Orion, to vaporize a propellant mixture. Water or plastic can be used in some cases, but tungsten is preferred for low bulk. This propellant is shot towards the ship's pusher plate, where the reaction of the impact pushes the ship forward. Only nuclear explosives can make the propellant hit the ship with enough energy to make an effective interplanetary drive.
So, each pulse unit (small, specially designed nuclear explosive device -one of hundreds to make the mission go) is the mechanism and structure to make it all work correctly, a big chunk of propellant, and the actual radioactive stuff of the nuclear fuel.
The propellant itself is over 2/3 of the mass (which bodes well for refueling for the return trip, at the destination). The plutonium 'pit' of the bomb is less than 10% of the bombs mass.
At launch out of the Earth's environment, we don't worry about the structure & mechanism or the propellant. We package it like any other part of the ship.
The tiny, heavy plutonium parts we take care of like they were our babies... Worth more than gold or platinum, very dangerous in the wrong hands (like W or the Pentagon), stable and damage resistant itself, but causing nightmares to the ignorant sector of the population who get bad dreams at the very mention of the word "radiation".
Remember that the crew of the Challenger survived the breakup of the orbiter. The impact with the ocean, 2.5 minutes later killed them.
We package the Pu bits specially so they'll fall away from a breaking up booster, re-enter the atmosphere at sub-orbital speeds, and make a hole in the ground -or better yet, deploy 'chutes & airbags to (relatively)gently land them.
> obviously, this takes out the HLV aspect of
nuclear vehicles, but it still allows them to have
great benefits as interplanetary ships.
Actually, it lets them focus on interplanetary travel, which is where they're really needed. Chemical can get us to LEO. It's totally false to say that chemical must be as bad as the Shuttle. Plenty of intelligent design choices can be made (just not in a government program) to lower costs and increase reliability.
Plenty of fans for ground launch. Little information now, and what we have doesn't seem hopeful -towards eradicating fallout from a ground launch.
Even neutron bombs have some lingering radiation, and if you're using a couple kilos of Pu or U per bomb, and several hundred bombs to get above the atmosphere, it doesn't look good.
EMP is a myth in this circumstance (I'll bet $ now). Everything we've seen on EMP states that it's produced in extremely large blasts -above 2mt- or in "much smaller blasts which are specifically designed to maximize" EMP. (paraphrasing T. Taylor)
Orion pulse units are not large, and may be designed to minimize EMP (gammas) though I suspect that it's enough that they're not specifically designed to produce EMP.
I like to point out that ground launch isn't necessary to get full use out of Orion. I've written in several places at nuclearspace.com boards about space asembled NPR stages, and I'm pretty sure I put it here too.
One thing I recently found in the Orion fan's 'bible': "Project Orion- the True Story of the Atomic Spaceship", by G Dyson rings out: Either the ground launch or the high-toss launch (The NPR stage lifted high by a booster stage, where it fires off above the atmosphere) is fraught with many places where a single-point failure means disaster.
A string of several hundred bombs tossed out the ass end of the ship, all of which must go off perfectly as planned or else the ship is junk -along with much of the surrounding countryside.
Build the ship out of parts lifted to LEO by an HLV. Shuttle or Energia parts lift ~100 tons each. Sea Dragon or similar booster lifts ~500 tons per shot.
Once the basic propulsion package of the ship is together, fire a small bomb to test things out. Build a little more on it, then fire a bigger shot. Fire a few shots for the next test.
Do a shakedown cruise out around the Moon & back before you commit to a crewed fully loaded ship with a long drawn out series of blasts (which are up to 20 seconds apart instead of .75 seconds for the ground launched ship).
One prime reason the original Orion workers decided against a ground launch was the inherent difficulty in testing it out, and the unforgiving environment.
Much more forgiving when you don't rely the entire mission on any one of a few hundred blasts...
Note that we're not talking about the tinkertoy ISS. These are large 500 ton segments of heavy steel, fitted together with big forged steel nuts & bolts. Ever worked a carnival? I've done that, as well as a MASH unit. Every day stuff to place heavy parts together with precision in a time crunch in heavy rain & wind. Doing the asembly in space suits won't be that much harder, if it's built right. Zubrin criticized the NASA large ship plans because they required pressurized hangars and lots of little finicky bits -just like the ISS, it's prone to trouble and high costs.
These first space assembled ships place the space infrastructure Ideally at NEAs or maybe Mars' moons) to build bigger ships. By the time the first mission to Mars has gone out & back, we're ready to build space-going luxury liners of several hundred thousand tons for the tourist and colonist trade to Mars!
To be fair, I'll add this.
I'm still moderately in favor of trying to build a field-deployable system of missiles, but I see no cause for the rush that our pal Shrub is in. Every time -every time the techies are rushed by teh politicians & money-men, things don't work, and they never listen to the techs.
http://slate.msn.com/?id=2075605
Bombs Away
Bush's indefensible missile-defense plan.
By Fred Kaplan
December 17, 2002And so it begins?or, rather, begins all over again. President Bush announced today that he has ordered Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to start the process of actually deploying the long-awaited "missile defense" system. By the fall of 2004, Bush wants 10 anti-missile interceptors (i.e., missiles designed to shoot down incoming missiles) fielded at the new test site in Ft. Greeley, Alaska, with another 10 by 2005 or '06 and many more beyond then. Defensive missiles will also be put on the Navy's Aegis cruisers, while missile-detecting radars will start going up on the ground, at sea, and in outer space.
What the president did not say is a) that we've been through this before, many times, with equal exuberance, enormous investments, and no returns; b) that as recently as 18 months ago, the program's top general said it was still at an early stage and warned against rushing things; and c) that, no matter how good defenses might get, any "rogue" with enough sophistication to build and launch a ballistic missile can easily maneuver around those defenses. On this last point, it is worth noting that U.S. weapons scientists and intelligence analysts have known about these maneuvering tricks for more than 40 years; that no one has the slightest idea how to deal with them; and that Bush's current test program does not even attempt to do so.
One common fallacy, propagated by some officials who know better (as well as many who don't), is that the case against missile defenses has been purely doctrinal in nature?a reluctance, on the part of arms-control theorists, to give up the policy of Mutual Assured Destruction. During the Cold War, holding each other's population hostage?the essence of MAD?was seen as the way to deter either the United States or the U.S.S.R. from launching a nuclear first-strike. Mounting a defense against nuclear strikes, some argued, might erode deterrence. The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of 1972, which sharply limited (and, in later revisions, banned) missile defenses, is viewed in this light as the apotheosis of MAD. Bush perpetuated this notion in today's speech: "The United States," he said, "has moved beyond the doctrine of Cold War deterrence reflected in the 1972 ABM Treaty."
In fact, though, MAD was never actual U.S. policy or the motive behind the treaty. The U.S. nuclear war plan has always emphasized destroying Soviet military targets and, from 1961 on, featured options that explicitly avoided hitting cities. The United States (and the U.S.S.R.) gave up on nuclear defenses?not just ABMs, but also nationwide fallout shelters?not out of obeisance to deterrence theory, but because the calculations were clear that offense would always beat defense. And because the technology seemed out of reach, the effort seemed fruitless, in any case. That's why Richard Nixon and Leonid Brezhnev?neither arms-control softies?signed the ABM Treaty.
The treaty reflected an acceptance of analysis conducted over the previous 15 years, not by doves but by Pentagon engineers and White House physicists, many of them hawks who despaired over their findings. The process began in 1958, under President Dwight Eisenhower, when a Pentagon technical panel concluded that the Army's Nike Zeus, the first ABM system, could easily be defeated by multiple warheads, decoys, or clouds of metallic chaff that could confuse the system's radars.
In 1961, Kennedy's defense secretary, Robert McNamara, ordered his own study, with similar results. The prospect of a "really effective" missile-defense system, the 55-page report concluded, "is bleak, has always been so, and there are no great grounds for hope that the situation will markedly improve in the future, no matter how hard we try." The main reason: "No one has yet suggested any solution to the problem of overcoming very simple, lightweight, non-discriminable decoys."
When Nixon tried in 1970, with the Safeguard ABM system, his science advisers told him in top secret memos?recently declassified by the National Security Archive, a private research group at George Washington University?that Safeguard "will be obsolete within three to four years after it is first deployed"; even China's limited nuclear arsenal could saturate the system with such "penetration aids" as decoys or "chaff clouds." National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger advised Nixon that Bell Telephone Labs, the program's prime contractor, "wants to get out of the ABM business" because the system "cannot adequately perform the mission assigned to it."
None of this pessimism was made public at the time. In 1972, Defense Secretary Melvin Laird testified to Congress that Safeguard had "no technical problems which would affect a decision to proceed with deployment."
Jump ahead to the latest chapter of this apparently never-ending saga. In September 1999, the CIA's National Intelligence Estimate concluded that any country able to develop ballistic missiles "would also develop various responses to US defenses," including such "readily available technology" as decoys, chaff, or wrapping warheads in radar-absorbing material.
The program's managers know this. In 1997 they decided finally to confront the issue, devising a test plan that would involve shooting down a mock warhead surrounded by nine or 10 decoys, all of which would look like a warhead to the sensors of a heat-seeking radar. In 1998, the program was revised so that the warhead would be flanked by just three decoys. In 1999, plans were again altered; only one decoy would be required, and it could be a large balloon. Philip Coyle, then the Pentagon's test director, wrote a widely distributed report the following year criticizing this devolution. The balloon's heat signature, he wrote, was "very dissimilar" to that of the mock warhead, so the radar "can easily discriminate" between the two.
In other words, when Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said in an Oct. 24 speech that we are "moving forward on missile defenses" to the point where "we actually can hit a bullet with a bullet," he was uttering an irrelevancy. Hitting one bullet with one bullet is certainly a remarkable feat, but it's among the least remarkable feats that an effective missile-defense system must accomplish.
Incidentally, no tests have yet involved hitting, say, two bullets with two bullets. In one nominally successful test, after the interceptor slammed into the warhead, shards from the collision caused the radar on the ground to malfunction. If a second warhead had followed, the whole system would have been blinded. Despite these self-imposed limitations, the test program has been uneven. To date, five of eight tests have been successful. The most recent test, on Dec. 11 of this year, was a dud.
In June of last year, Gen. Ronald T. Kadish, director of the missile-defense program, said in hearings before the House Armed Services Committee, "I cannot overemphasize the importance of controlling our expectations and persevering through the hard times as we develop and field a system as complex as missile defense." The program's "test philosophy," he explained, "is to add step-by-step complexities over time. It is a walk-before-you-run, learn-as-you-go development approach."
Judging from today's speech, it seems that Bush wants his generals to run the New York marathon before they've mastered the 100-yard dash.
Fred Kaplan is the Boston Globe's New York bureau chief, its former military correspondent, and the author of The Wizards of Armageddon.