You are not logged in.
Note that I didn't say who would do airstrikes. I'm pretty convinced that someone will, and that after the US elections will be the most convenient time diplomatically-speaking (it gets the best US response, and everyone else will be equally pissed no matter when you try it). Note that other interested parties might take a shot as well (among other states, the Saudis and other sunni states have always been very nervous about Iran's mullahs, and might try to pull a fast one, especially since there's a good chance that someone else will initially catch hell for it)
I also agree that it could get ugly in a hurry, but not that ugly - these are the same guys who fought Saddam to a draw, and we know how great his troops were.
Martian Republic said:
Russia believe that the United States and Great Britain are behind Chechen’s rebel attack. I believe that too
You must be - without a doubt - the most utterly Fruit Loops insane person I've ever heard open their mouth and utterly ignore rational thought. Congratulations.
Anyways, to turn to more sane people and topics, such as Euler and nuclear weapons:
North Korea probably has assembled a handful of nukes. Whether they will work or not is anybody's guess without testing, though the designs are probably reliable enough and no one wants to find out by experiment. Nobody - not even the Chinese - likes, trusts, or particularly wants North Korea the way it is. The whole situation resembles a bunch of adults attempting to disarm an insane child with a gun: delicate, delicate work, and requiring great patience to get them to put the damn gun down. China is concerned with the US and South Korea on its doorstep, but nobody would mind much if the Chinese set up a stable, reasonably sane puppet government of its choosing there (well, South Korea might mind some, due to reunificationist dreams, but they'd agree that it beats the possibility of nuclear suntan). The only problem is that North Korea is *completely* nuts, and might fire off nukes at literally anybody for no discernable reason at all if the hornet's nest is forcefully poked.
So everybody seems to have decided on the 'dinosaur defense' with North Korea (do nothing) since their state is so dysfunctional and nutty that at some point it will collapse without any outside intervention, and while normally disintegrating states act unpredictable and anything can happen - with North Korea, that's already true, so what's the real downside?
Now, with Iran, nukes are even more threatening, in a way, because they're much more predictably bad. If they get them, they WILL use them, period, presumably against Israel first, the US second, and Russia third. The fact that their nation will glow in the dark for a few thousand years afterwards doesn't seem to cross their minds - they've claimed plenty of times that they'll use them if they have them. As a result, the US and Israel (as well as other potential targets like Saudi Arabia) have much more incentive to actually do something about Iran. Which is why I predict that 'something', probably intense airstrikes, will occur in mid-November.
LAROUCHE! Whoooo! :laugh:
C'mon, I disagree with Ecraz L'Infame (I've probably just murdered your name, but we know who I'm talking about) more or less completely, but buddy, you're *completely* loco.
No one (important) cares about tincan dictators. Nobody. It's a convenient stick to smack America with diplomatically, but trust me, assuming no third parties end up dying (meaning other countries) you could burn whole countries to the ground, and the most that would happen is maybe a crossly worded letter from the UN. Bush and his associates in the White House have made every reasonable effort (and some unreasonable ones) to avoid civilian casualties, which is costing US casualties in the process.
Arguing that World War III is going to happen because we kick a few dictators in the head is insane. You have to ask yourself: is China/India/Russia really going to feel threatened - threatened enough to risk a major, possibly nuclear conflict - over some suicidal maniacs in the Middle East?
Any sane person is going to say "No."
Australia gets an assist from position, too - Southern Hemisphere, English-speaking nation, high-quality (if small) economy.
Edit: Which doesn't take away from the accomplishments of the Aussies, just pointing out that they have a nice set of natural advantages they grabbed and ran with.
We can beat the crap out of Iran, definitely, shatter their armies, sure. I'm not really sure about putting the pieces back together, though it would be easier than you think (because Iran wouldn't have, well, Iran and Syria running guns and causing trouble, and also because it's more culturally homogenous). Given that Bush is moving troops from South Korea and Germany... we can probably do it.
If I were Bush, though, I'd whack their reactor and enrichment facilites on November 3rd or 4th. Either you've won or you've lost in the election, you're not running for anything again, and the world will find something else to bitch about in a month or so. In the meantime you've wiped out one of the real threats (nukes in Iran's hot hands) in the war on terror.
You smash Iran's reactor, what are they going to do?
A) Run guns into Iraq and generally support terrorism? They're already doing that.
B) Run over the border with their normal troops? ::cue laugh track:: That's just suicide.
C) Sit tight and whine
I'm guessing C, while shouting to the world that they're doing A because of the evil, evil Americans.
Not Saddam any more, that's for sure. He's in jail, and is too likely to be dead soon to count.
So you could consider it a pointless poll.
I generally agree with the idea that if the Palestinians laid down their arms, there would no more war in the area, and if the Israelis laid down their arms, there would be no more Israel in the area.
I'm singularly unsympathetic to the Palestinian cause. They squandered their chances when Clinton was President.
:laugh: LaRouche! :laugh:
It'll never get old.
I suppose you can't convince his followers, but c'mon, he's a joke.
If they had nominated Gephardt or Lieberman, you would probably be saying that they should have nominated someone else like Kerry. The Bush campaign team is very good at slinging mud, and anyone who runs against them will be made to look like a poor candidate
Actually, I had already made up my mind to vote for Lieberman, if they nominated him. The chance to give every ME government the finger at once by voting for a Jewish president was irresistible.
Josh, I don't have an attention span long enough to understand all the political newspeak. Issues alone are hard enough for me to follow. Please excuse me while I raise my head up out of the sand for a few minutes and ask:
What is a candidate's "travelling press"?
(It sounds like there's some collection of reporters stuck riding around on the bus with these guys for months. Poor saps... )
Yeah, that more or less is exactly what happens. There are a bunch of reporters with the lousy assignment of following the candidates around. Someone wrote a book about these reporters called 'The Boys On The Bus', which is about the reporters who followed Nixon and McGovern around. I remember there was a reference to a then-mysterious device known as a 'fax machine', which one of the reporters had, and which was the size of a suitcase. :laugh:
You're all scaring me.
From north of the border, reelecting Bush & Company on the basis of Trebucht's: A) People expect him to say strange things, unlike Kerry, and B) The stuff he says will be marginally less stupid than Senator Heisenberg's uncertain positions on issues, seems insane.
Canadian's are asking: "Can Americans be that stupid?" (Not my words.)
I did not say that's why they'll elect him. I said it's why he'd 'win' the debates, because he's facing an even lamer opponent. However, I'd definitely put my money on Bush winning for more or less similar reasons. As mediocre as Bush is, he's a distinct improvement on Senator Heisenkerry, who is all over the map on his positions and has yet to be consistent in anything but inconsistency. His lackluster Senate record and insane insistence on running on Vietnam isn't helping.
The majority of the people have decided there's only one serious candidate. The Democrats nominated Kerry - for what reason, God only knows. If they had nominated Gephardt, or Lieberman, then Bush wouldn't have had a prayer.
Instead, they served up Senator Softball, and Bush will bat in a stand-up double.
It strikes me that Bush will put a bullet in Iran's head. I think the Russians are cynical enough to realize that - they don't need a nuclear armed Islamic fundamentalist state any more than we do (cough BRESLAN cough cough) but probably figure we'll blow up Iran's reactor before anything interesting happens. Having smashed Iraq with only suspicion of WMD possession, invading Iran when they're screaming "WE'RE BUILDING NUUUUUUUUUKES!" at the top of their lungs seems logical and consistent, not that presidents have ever been constrained by such quaint principles.
Besides, we're withdrawing a bunch of troops from Germany and South Korea.... now where could they be headed? It's not like we've got boots in the countries right next to Iran, right? Oh wait...
:laugh:
To expand - the best thing Lyndon LaRouche could do for Kerry is stay as far away as possible.
For those of you who don't know, Lyndon Larouche is a crackpot conspiracy theorist who is noted for his strange notions, such as his belief that the British Royal Family is out to get him, deciding that economic collapse was around the corner (so he formed the "National Committee of Labor Committees", which, in his view, would pick up the pieces afterwards), and so forth.
He's also been convicted of mail fraud.
Needless to say, he's somewhat of a loony, hence my attitude in the post above.
:laugh:
What a joke! Lyndon Larouche? Are you serious?
:laugh:
The Kerry campaign can't even keep Jersey in the blue column, and Kerry comes up with even lamer off-the-cuff answers to questions than Bush does. Which is why he's been avoiding reporters even more than Bush does...
The debates should be a new level of funny, in an entirely unintentional way. However, Bush would come out ahead because: A) People expect him to say strange things, unlike Kerry, and B) The stuff he says will be marginally less stupid than Senator Heisenberg's uncertain positions on issues.
Nah, Bush will trash Kerry in the debates. He's taking on someone even more stiff and fumblemouthed than himself (a miracle!)
Besides, nothing else has gone right for Kerry, why should this?
Oh! Another thing!
The left hand is good for expressing an opinion while the right handles the car. Bastard nearly hit me.
Righthanded for writing, golf, throwing footballs, etc. Lefthanded for hockey and a few other things. I bat equally well (equally bad is possibly more accurate) from either side of the plate.
I'm right-footed as well.
I believe right/left isn't absolute, based on this and watching other people. There is some sort of sliding scale thing going on. Plus, the times I've tried playing hockey righthanded, I played atrociously, about as bad as my lefthanded handwriting. So somehow things are wired different for different actions.
Obviously, I didn't ride in it for 24 hours. I did, however, look like I had taken a ride in a washing machine.
Frances was a wimpy storm - I went out biking in it yesterday. (Yes, I am crazy. But you already knew that)
The major point of Frances was that it was very, very big, and very very slow moving, so that it's dumped a pile of rain on the state and basically whapped everyone with at least tropical storm force winds for 24 hours. However, it lost a lot of power before coming on land, and damage has been very light, at least in my area.
I'm more worried about Ivan, to be honest.
My dog is fairly bright (he can open a sliding door if it hasn't been securely shut), but he definitely has some odd behaviors. He seems to feel the need to kill the kibble in his dog dish, for instance - he will bark, jump on it, and smack it silly, then eat the food he's scattered. He doesn't do this all the time, but he does it enough to drive me crazy (and provide a good laugh)
The funniest thing he does, though, is if he thinks someone is drowning in the pool (or something like that - he will do this if someone is underwater for a while, or if they're splashing a lot). He barks frantically, hopping back and forth, then jumps in the water towards the person. Then he starts yipping piteously, because he's scared of the water, and panics, completely ignoring whoever he was planning to rescue.
The problem with peace is that the world is a machine with six billion parts, and you only need one nut to cause a major malfunction.
My standard of "When is war necessary?" is pretty simple, and serves as a rough and ready guide: if it isn't worth fighting door to door and to the knife for, it's not really worth the bloodshed. Sometimes wars meet this standard because they deal with issues of great importance (World War II) and sometimes they reach that level because the other guy insists on an ugly fight (the current war on terrorism), but in general, you shouldn't bother those who aren't bothering you (or planning to bother you after they take care of the neighbors)
Addendum: With a *different* radio telescope, just to be extra sure.
That might be... a large interstellar craft is going to have some kind of interaction with the hydrogen gas in its area. I would imagine that they could rule this out with more data.
Why aren't they taking a nice long look at this thing?
Seti@home has picked up a weird signal at a very suspicious wavelength, now recieved on three seperate occasions. They are cautioning that it might be some sort of new phenomena or some previously unknown glitch in the system.
On the other hand, it could be someone going "HELLO... HELLO..."
Deag, you twit, the media itself went back and recounted the ballots. Bush won anyways. Stop beating the dead donkey.
That butterfly ballot was made by a Democrat, btw, and the confusion of votes was between Gore and Pat Buchanan, not Gore and Bush as you insinuate, though that's an irrelevant issue anyways.