Demographics are destiny, or - How many people by 2492?

Bill White · 2002-11-05 21:34:07

Inspired by AltToWar's thread, I wish to ask how many human beings do we all speculate will be living in 2492, the millenial anniversary of the voyages of Columbus?

It seems to me that * IF * humanity learns effective CELSS including hydroponics and the ability to derive hydroponic solution from inorganic rocks and to recycle all organic waste products and high efficiency use of solar energy (essentially limitless for a deep space city) * THEN * humanity might well experience an astonishing population explosion - whether on Mars or in "L5" style cities racing along in free return orbits or among the asteroids.

Assume effective and efficient CELSS and the ability to mine asteroids - if these conditions are present - families could have 6, 8 or 10 children and feed them merely by building an addition onto the habitat (in space that might only require X kilograms of multi-layered Kevlar and some rigid plastics) and then expanding the family's hydroponic gardens. Given Moore's law, even in 50 years computers will have become so cheap and so fast that education and communication and the ability to do work based in the information technology fields will not be an issue at all.

Suppose you and your family have plenty of food, water and air all readily recycled plus radiation shielding (in deep space using one's water supply is the easiest way to accomplish this) and access to fast computers and ultra-broadband communication links. Why couldn't you have as many children as you wanted?

After all, as Gerard O'Neill writes - a planet is a hell of a lousy place to build a civilization. If O'Neill is right, how many humans will be living in 2492 or at the close of this 3rd millenium?

Shaun Barrett · 2002-11-05 22:41:28

Sounds like an impossible question to ask about an era so far ahead in time.
The world today seems so uncertain, it's hard to figure out the state we'll be in by Christmas this year! Never mind 2492!!

I imagine individual human longevity will be a factor by then. If everybody's living to see their 500th birthday, and having a dozen kids in the meantime, we'll run into the worst effects of a geometric progression as regards population numbers ... and soon, too!!
I haven't done any mathematics with this but I do know that an unfettered geometric progression could fill the entire solar system with human flesh in very short order!

Some sort of control will probably be necessary. But, by that, I don't mean some sort of government control ... just common sense self-control.

AltToWar · 2002-11-05 23:07:14

It's all guess-work. If the current downtrend in pop groth rate continues, we'll peak out at around 11 Billion People at around 2200.

After that our population will start to decline, if all other factors remain static.

Odds are that our life expectancy will increase though to compensate.

I'll take the optimists route and assume that economic prosperity will gradually spread over developing countries, dramaticly reducing their growth rate, and put earths numbers back down at 8 Billion by 2492.

As for the solar system, how soon we establish a colony will greatly influence how large our extra terran population will be by then.

Lets say we started a colony of 100 people on mars on the year 2100. We were able to maintain a 2.5% population growth rate (about the rate we had going during the industrial revolution in the western world).

By 2492 we would have about 2 million people on mars. A very small portion of our total population.

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#1 2002-11-05 21:34:07

Re: Demographics are destiny, or - How many people by 2492?

#2 2002-11-05 22:41:28

Re: Demographics are destiny, or - How many people by 2492?

#3 2002-11-05 23:07:14

Re: Demographics are destiny, or - How many people by 2492?

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