Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

Euler · 2004-11-02 17:05:13

According to Wivipedia:

On Tradesports, the Bush futures contract has dropped from about 53, where it has been for the past several days, to about 30, in about an hour. On Betfair the odds on a Bush victory have increased from 1.9 to 3.8 over the last day.

clark · 2004-11-02 17:07:01

Are you like, French or something?

I'm like, not a geezer.

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-02 17:07:49

I knew I should've put money on Kerry last night...

Rxke · 2004-11-02 17:14:07

I can do one better than Clark: I have cable, a VCR, but no TV!

Weird thing is, the cable is still 'live,' I guess the former people that lived here, years ago, are still paying for the subscription..

Drilled a hole into the wall, now my neighbours can watch cable TV for free... Shhhh!

Oh, I'm Belgian, close to France, heehee!

BWhite · 2004-11-02 17:21:31

Are you like, French or something?
I'm like, not a geezer.

I'm like, punch drunk. Okay?

clark · 2004-11-02 17:34:51

LOL!

No worries, just ribbing you given some of your previous comments

Euler · 2004-11-02 17:43:43

6:00 PM EST exit polls:
Kerry Bush

PA 53 46
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
MO 46 54
AK 47 53
MI 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
MN 54 44
WI 52 47
IA 49 49

BWhite · 2004-11-02 17:47:01

LOL!
No worries, just ribbing you given some of your previous comments

Dude, we have pounded each other for like, how long now?

And I am an old geezer. Just young at heart.

:;):

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-02 17:51:25

Beat me to it, Euler. I'm quietly optimistic.

edit: BTW, the first MI is actually MO, it was a typo.

Edited By Josh Cryer on 1099439537

Euler · 2004-11-02 18:03:53

Wow, they are saying that Virginia and South Carolina are still too close to call. Good news for Kerry, since Bush was expected to win those states easily.

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-02 19:12:49

The most painful thing about these results is that Democratically inclined precincts are always reported last, due to their higher population.

Trebuchet · 2004-11-02 20:12:01

FL definitely to Bush. Kerry is getting crushed like a cheap tin can. So much for exit polls; of course, they called the governor's race 2 years ago "a virtual dead heat" and Jeb Bush won by similar numbers.

Earthfirst · 2004-11-02 20:58:50

Looks like Bush will win FL, MG, and WS. I looked at the west cost Kerry will win CA, OG, Wash thats about 73 votes. Bush should be able to up that with FL, MG, MN. Strange how things go?

Palomar · 2004-11-02 21:27:47

*10:26 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. News commentators (ABC and CNN...we're watching both interchangably) frequently mentioning how the States are falling Democratic or Republican exactly as they did in 2000.

Missouri has apparently been a real "one to watch." CNN anchor said Kerry didn't spend much time in MO, figuring he probably couldn't win it (has been projected since as going to Bush) -- but at the time of that comment, Kerry and Bush were very closely tied...a surprise for the Democrats.

However, on the last note it was indicated MO might give us a few more surprises in the next day or so.

--Cindy

P.S.: Nader less of a factor in this election. Also, fewer younger voters turned out than expected. And is anyone else getting frustrated that FL, OH and PA are still "in play"?

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-02 21:30:56

I may be writing that poem after all.

Euler · 2004-11-02 21:51:27

The networks are projecting Pennsylvania for Kerry now.

Earthfirst · 2004-11-02 21:54:30

I predict that Bush will win Idaho, Arizona.
Looks like FL goes for bush with 90% reporting Bush still leads by 5% margin. Also Mg, Ws might go for bush too, Gore won those right?

Palomar · 2004-11-02 22:51:08

*I just did some quick figuring on States projected as having been won (at Yahoo! web site) -and- the states (except Hawaii and Alaska) shaded either light pink or light blue, based on "iffy" projections. This is how it stacks up as of 11:50 p.m. EST (I'm 2 hours behind EST, in Mountain Standard Time...and about to hit the hay for the night):

Bush = 271 electoral votes.
Kerry = 244

Hawaii and Alaska won't put Kerry over the top.

Of course, there's still provisional ballots to be counted in projected States, etc. Expect the unexpected? :hm:

Now it's time for some :sleep:

--Cindy

BWhite · 2004-11-02 23:08:06

Ohio may determine all.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/3 … 45]Another 269 - 269 scenario

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-02 23:10:46

I'm going to get drunk and go to sleep. clark, if it turns out in your favor, well, I'll have that poem for you.

Euler · 2004-11-02 23:25:48

MSNBC just projected Florida for Bush. They now give Bush a 246-206 lead.

BWhite · 2004-11-02 23:58:41

Ohio is it. And there already are flurries of lawsuits.

Rxke · 2004-11-03 00:15:56

Woke up the *exact* moment newsreader said Ohio was going to Bush.

Off to see som numbers...

Euler · 2004-11-03 00:16:52

Fox has started porjecting Ohio for Bush. That would give him 269.

BWhite · 2004-11-03 00:22:58

Fox has started porjecting Ohio for Bush. That would give him 269.

Two issues remain. About 1,000,000 votes (largely from Cleveland); and

a huge pile of provisional ballots many related to the flurry of pre-emptive lawsuits filed by the Republicans.

= = =

Is Ohio a legitimate call? That decides everything.

OH, MI, WI & Hawaii means Kerry wins. No Ohio? Kerry loses.

But look inside the Fox numbers, county by county, and at the UNCOUNTED provisional ballots. Ohio may not be over.

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#51 2004-11-02 17:05:13

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#52 2004-11-02 17:07:01

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#53 2004-11-02 17:07:49

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#54 2004-11-02 17:14:07

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#55 2004-11-02 17:21:31

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#56 2004-11-02 17:34:51

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#57 2004-11-02 17:43:43

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#58 2004-11-02 17:47:01

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#59 2004-11-02 17:51:25

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#60 2004-11-02 18:03:53

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#61 2004-11-02 19:12:49

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#62 2004-11-02 20:12:01

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#63 2004-11-02 20:58:50

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#64 2004-11-02 21:27:47

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#65 2004-11-02 21:30:56

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#66 2004-11-02 21:51:27

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#67 2004-11-02 21:54:30

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#68 2004-11-02 22:51:08

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#69 2004-11-02 23:08:06

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#70 2004-11-02 23:10:46

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#71 2004-11-02 23:25:48

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

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Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#73 2004-11-03 00:15:56

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

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Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

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Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

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