Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

BWhite · 2004-10-30 23:06:40

All that is at stake, here at NewMars, will be the difference between

"Atta-boy" or "Atta-girl"

and

"Told 'ya so!

= = =

Two prizes, one for popular vote nationwide and the other for electoral votes.

= = =

Here is my non-scientific prediction:

Kerry wins with 51.7% of popular vote and 305 electoral votes.

If I am wrong, you all can laugh at me. :;):

:band: :band: :band:

Palomar · 2004-10-31 07:48:48

*Based on the way the polls are going, I think Kerry will win 53% of the popular vote and 290 electoral votes; he'll be the next U.S. President.

A political analyst on Bill O'Reilly's show Friday (?) night predicted Bush would get a perk from the bin Laden tape and that his support would jump at least a few very noticeable points. That prediction was wrong; the very next day Kerry took a 1-point lead in the polls. Prior to Osama's latest, I figured Bush would narrowly squeak back into Office.

I planned 2 weeks ago to have most of Tuesday off. It's going to be one heck of a ride. Last evening while dining out, an elderly couple mentioned to us that we probably won't know who is President until Nov. 15. :laugh: (I hope not).

Am glad we'll soon know who will lead the nation for the next 4 years.

--Cindy

::edit:: Just in from Yahoo! Bush has slight Electoral lead. I've linked to the article beneath the text.

"According to an Associated Press analysis, 26 states are solidly behind Bush or lean his way for 222 electoral votes. Kerry has 16 states plus the District of Columbia secured or leaning his direction for 211 electoral votes.

It is down to this: Bush needs to scrape together at least 48 of the remaining 105 electoral votes to keep his job. Kerry needs 59 to move into the White House.

The remaining 105 electoral votes are in the eight most competitive states: Florida, Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico."

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=s … 16]Article, hot off the presses

Yep...Tuesday's gonna be one wild and wooly day.

Josh Cryer · 2004-10-31 10:22:22

300 or more electorial votes would be a very nice mandate for Kerry, he needs a fairly wide margin.

I'm calling it for Kerry, too. By how much, I can't say, but it's in the bag for Kerry.

Commodore · 2004-10-31 16:15:47

Well, the redskins lost, so....

Euler · 2004-10-31 17:01:31

We will have a very crazy election:

After all of the recounts, Kerry wins the popular vote 50%-49%, but the Electoral College ends up at Bush 268 Kerry 269 (Bush suffers a faithless elector). Since neither has a clear majority, the decision goes to the republican House of Representatives, which decides to keep Bush as president. For Vice President, the new Senate is split 50-50 but Cheney breaks the tie by voting for himself to remain as Vice President.

Martian Republic · 2004-10-31 17:50:42

I think Kerry will take it by about 55% to maybe even as high as 60% in the popular vote. Kerry will probably take over 400 of the electoral college votes too.

The reason that I say that is, because of the voter registration this year. The Americans will sign up to vote in larger numbers when they don't like the incumbent President or when there hurting real bad because of his policies. So they show up in larger numbers to get ride of that dirt bag. Which is what I think is going on here. So what you looking at here is a major upset against the incumbent President. We may have 1/3 more voter this year than in 2000 Presidential election. We get much of any lope sidedness of new voters going to one side of the other, it will cause a major shift from what we had four years ago. That major shift will almost certainly be in John Kerry's favor.

Larry,

Josh Cryer · 2004-10-31 18:56:54

Euler, that is a beautiful nightmare you have presented, it fits very well with the spirit of Halloween, hahaha. But, if that happens, well, things will definitely be entertaining.

I think that Kerry's win will be uncontested. Well, I hope it will be.

clark · 2004-11-01 05:31:00

We will know who the president will be after Ohio, Pen, and Florida vote.

Bush will take it.

Rxke · 2004-11-01 06:38:00

What are the weather forecasts?

Bad weather --> low turnout, nice weather, high turnout...

Dems saying high turnout would help them...

Are Reps into raindancing?

Cobra Commander · 2004-11-01 06:42:10

I'm going to have to say Bush wins by a narrow margin. Close enough that the Kerry campaign declares victory anyway amid accusations of fraud and voter intimidation, unleashes the hounds, and we enter into litigation hell.

Isolated instances of civil unrest to follow.

Palomar · 2004-11-01 07:00:41

Isolated instances of civil unrest to follow.

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u … _2]Another occurrence of violence makes the news...

*Okay, so it was "only" a kick, but still.

--Cindy

C M Edwards · 2004-11-01 09:06:06

I've got to throw in with Euler and Cobra. This will be too close for popular vote to decide accurately, and (for no good reason, IMHO) nobody trusts the electoral college anymore.

The presidential election will go into round two.

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-01 09:48:45

Ah, pessimism. Kerry will take it.

Cobra Commander · 2004-11-01 10:19:43

Ah, pessimism. Kerry will take it.

Now that's pessimism.

clark · 2004-11-01 10:21:48

Pessimism? No. It's just not in the cards.

The radical right will vote, and they will vote in number, no matter the weather. They have more to gain by a second term Bush who answers to no one, and chooses perhaps 3-4 new supreme court justices.

The moderate's in the Republicans are willing to swallow another 4 years of Bush because of fear of what Kerry might represent to the eyes of outsiders, and the assumption that at least they have an avenue with "their" man.

The makeup of the Republican party is undergoing enough of a shift that it is made up of predominately of lower middle class citizens, and generally, less educated citizens. Do the math with media and see what you get.

If you want a weather vain, look at the war chest Bush put together in 2000, and now in 2004. It was done by a lot of people making smaller donations. In the booth, each vote is worth one, so that already demonstrates a greater proportion of individuals who will cast their ballot in favor of Bush.

There is a complete breakdown in communication between the two camps of voters- Bush supporters are not seeing what Kerry supporters are seeing, and vice versa.

I am truly sorry, but Bush will take this, and we will suffer for a generation. He dosen't need a mandate, and he won't need to answer to anyone. He will make any horse deals he needs to with a Republican controlled House and Senate to shift the social and politcal establishments into whatever the neocons and chrisitian right want.

in the last four years we have seen some radical shifts in America under the leadership of Bush, and put simply, we haven't seen anything yet.

Bush will have 4 more years entirely devoted to establishing his legacy, a legacy he is more than willing to impose on us and the world.

Either that, or Nader wins.

Euler · 2004-11-01 11:19:48

The betting exchanges show that currently people think that Bush has about a 55% chance of winning and that Kerry has a 45% chance of winning.

If you average all of the polls that have been taken, you will find a slight lead for Bush. However, there is a systemic error in these polls: they usually only deal with likely voters, meaning voters who have voted in the past several elections. This election will have the highest turnout in decades, and most of the new voters will be Kerry supporters.

I think Kerry has the advantage. He will almost certainly win Pennsylvania, and will probably pick up Ohio as well. Florida will be close, with chances for both candidates. If Kerry can hold on to the Midwestern Gore states, he should win.

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-01 11:34:17

As our good friend Bill noted to me, cell phone users have not been polled at all, until yesterday, all these months. Given that they break for Kerry 55% to 40%, and given that most newly registered voters are young (and fit the cell phone user demographic; kids living at home, or just people without a land line, like myself), we can't use a polling average, as it's going to be off by several points.

One cannot use statistics in this particular instance to say who is going to win, because they're faulty, they're not taking into consideration all of the possible variables.

BTW, you might think this is a biased obversation, as I'm quite clearly a Kerry supporter (the reality is "anybody but bush" but yeah; I actually liked Dean, he was more entertaining), but I am being objective here.

Gore was "behind" in the polls in 2000, but he won the popular vote. Yes, it's necessary to win the electorial vote, but Kerry isn't "behind" and there is no real Nader Factor. And more people are voting this year than ever before.

I may be willing to put some money on this. Since you seem to be losing our "solid date for Mars" bet, clark, want to play?

:band: :band: :band:

clark · 2004-11-01 11:47:57

A hope and a prayer on the auspices of cell phone users? LOL!

Perhaps my recollections fail me, but every 4 years, the same thing is said, "more voters likely than ever before," and "this is an election that really counts, really."

Young people don't vote. "Rock" the vote is all Rock, and no vote. Just multiply your own apathy and you arrive at the appropriate conclusion.

I for one am not looking at polls, and could care less about the final count on popular vote. Popular vote dosen't win the game. Ohio, Pen, and Florida win the game.

I also fail to see how I am losing our current bet, but that is for another thread. I'm waiting on Congress, then off to Mars.

I support Kerry, but so what? It isn't in the cards.

Bush will take Ohio, and Florida, and the White House. Kerry will take Pen.

Now, I took you for a ride on the last bet, since my one eyed hobo told me about that. Politics, well, he never told me much about that.

A friendly wager then- loser, as in if I am right, and you are wrong on who the winner is, then loser (of course if i am right, we all are losers, but I digress) must write a 10 line poem espousing the wonder, virtue, and greatness of the other.

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-01 11:58:10

"more voters likely than ever before,"

More voters likely? How about more voters already have voted? Early voting puts the voting already beyond what we've ever seen before, already! Especially in Flordia, where you don't think Kerry will win (technically Gore won by over 10k votes in Flordia, call it the Buchanan factor).

Young people don't vote. "Rock" the vote is all Rock, and no vote.

Young people do what the TV tells them to do. Voting is now becoming a huge fad. I know a 17 year old girl who is estatic about politics, it's freaking awesome! I've never experienced that before. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe I'm too optimistic here.

I also fail to see how I am losing our current bet, but that is for another thread.

You know it's going to take a Kennedy-esque announcemnt, with the backing of a lot of people from both sides, to win that bet.

A friendly wager then- loser, as in if I am right, and you are wrong on who the winner is, then loser (of course if i am right, we all are losers, but I digress) must write a 10 line poem espousing the wonder, virtue, and greatness of the other.

Ah, okay. Done. I always get scared when someone takes my bet offers, because I'm almost always wrong when money is involved, but this'll work.

I can't wait to see what you have to write about me.

clark · 2004-11-01 12:13:30

Well, I can write something about you now, if you don't want to wait... but of course, it might not neccessarily be about your "wonder, virtue, and greatness."

Do you have a particular form you would prefer? :laugh:

More voters likely? How about more voters already have voted? Early voting puts the voting already beyond what we've ever seen before, already! Especially in Flordia, where you don't think Kerry will win (technically Gore won by over 10k votes in Flordia, call it the Buchanan factor).

The number of votes count less than the number of where those votes are cast! Play the game as it is, not as you would have it.

Young people do what the TV tells them to do. Voting is now becoming a huge fad.

TV has been around for awhile now. MTV has been around for awhile now. The fad is just that, a fad, no substance to it. I wish it were otherwise.

You know it's going to take a Kennedy-esque announcemnt, with the backing of a lot of people from both sides, to win that bet.

Bush is no Kennedy, so I won't hold my breath, and merely point to VSE and all that it encompasses. Congress need only fund it enough to get started, and I win.

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-01 12:25:41

Do you have a particular form you would prefer?

Nah, just make it rhyme.

The number of votes count less than the number of where those votes are cast! Play the game as it is, not as you would have it.

I know that, but if the 10k+ people who screwed up their votes last time in Flordia, don't screw it up this time (and in all likelihood, there will be far less screwups of that calibre), then Bush is toast. Assume exact circumstances as 2000 (which isn't the case of course, as early voting exit polling puts Kerry ahead in Flordia, outside of the margin of error, btw), but without voter screwups, and Kerry wins Flordia.

I'm not paying attention to Ohio, though, Flordia is in everyones focus this year, and I'm reading the reports as they come.

TV has been around for awhile now. MTV has been around for awhile now. The fad is just that, a fad, no substance to it. I wish it were otherwise.

Well, I think fads do have substence to them, if they didn't pop stars wouldn't make money, and clothing chains would go out of business, just beacuse that substence is temporary is irrelevant. That's actually fine in my opinion, because we only need this fad once every 4 years (well, 2 years would be better, because the senate controls our lives more, but 4 is okay).

So, I don't quite care that teeny boppers are out playing politics and not really knowing what they're doing beyond that, just so long as they vote for my guy.

But, actually, MTV had this really really great special, about abortion rights and birth control rights and things of that nature, it really contrasted the two sides of the coin, and in my mind, it was really really hard for me to imagine any kid that watches MTV, not voting for Kerry, because the "celebacy/anti-abortionists/etc" kids were just so... uncool.

It was beautiful! The government should fund this sort of thing for voting in the next few years. I think there can really be a focus on politics, it doesn't have to be a fad.

But right now, I conceed it's a fad, but that doesn't matter.

Congress need only fund it enough to get started, and I win.

Uh huh.

clark · 2004-11-01 12:37:56

There once was a bloke named Josh Cryer
Whose spirit was ever so dire
For depression saddled and riddled his bones
Because no pollsters did call his phones
And ask, perchance, his choice of vote
This, an administrator of some Martian note,
Yet he prevailed through his eternal ennui
In a misguided belief of Kerry’s victory
To bad then that the day after tomorrow
He lost a bet to poetry’s sorrow.

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-01 13:09:48

Hahaha, you just made my fucking day! Thank you clark.

clark · 2004-11-01 13:18:09

What a foul day it is indeed when such harsh words go flying freely from the protector of these lands.

I bow, and wish nothing more than to lose this bet to you Josh (a bit of reversal in positions from our previous bet, eh?).

I hope you took the previous poem in good humor, as I meant no offense. I'll assume as much, since I have yet to be kicked off. LOL!

Of course, if I do win, try to put me atop a gallant steed with the glorious sunrise/sunset setting a halo upon my most noble form as I stand atop a hill of victory!

Euler · 2004-11-01 13:19:26

Young people don't vote.

I voted!

Seriously, there are a lot more young people registered to vote this election than in past elections. Based on the turnout so far in places with early voting, we can expect a very large turnout. It is quite possible that the new voters will swing the vote in favor of Kerry this election.

New Mars Forums

Announcement

#1 2004-10-30 23:06:40

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#2 2004-10-31 07:48:48

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#3 2004-10-31 10:22:22

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#4 2004-10-31 16:15:47

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#5 2004-10-31 17:01:31

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#6 2004-10-31 17:50:42

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#7 2004-10-31 18:56:54

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#8 2004-11-01 05:31:00

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#9 2004-11-01 06:38:00

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#10 2004-11-01 06:42:10

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#11 2004-11-01 07:00:41

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#12 2004-11-01 09:06:06

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#13 2004-11-01 09:48:45

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#14 2004-11-01 10:19:43

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#15 2004-11-01 10:21:48

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#16 2004-11-01 11:19:48

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#17 2004-11-01 11:34:17

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#18 2004-11-01 11:47:57

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#19 2004-11-01 11:58:10

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#20 2004-11-01 12:13:30

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#21 2004-11-01 12:25:41

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#22 2004-11-01 12:37:56

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#23 2004-11-01 13:09:48

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#24 2004-11-01 13:18:09

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

#25 2004-11-01 13:19:26

Re: Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

Board footer