A "Rama" Scenario

Palomar · 2004-08-12 12:43:42

*Suppose, like as in Arthur C. Clarke's _Rendezvous with Rama_, a spaceship is detected entering our Solar System from beyond Neptune. Its path will take it close to the Sun, but scientists determine it'll merely pass old Sol and keep going beyond, further into the reaches of outer space. We'll never see it again.

Scientists also determine it is populated by living beings. However, these beings aren't interested in Earth for whatever reason. They show no indication of slowing down or coming over to give us a "look-see." We're apparently nothing more to them than a potential rest-stop on the cosmic highway which they've chosen to continue driving past.

If you had the resources and $ and shots-calling power, how would you handle the situation?

--Cindy

Euler · 2004-08-12 13:16:07

If I thought that they didn't know about Earth, I would probably just let them go. However, if we have detected their ship, then they have almost certainly detected our presence, so we might as well try and contact them. In either case we should try to learn as much as possible about them, their technology, their origins and their destination.

Cobra Commander · 2004-08-12 13:23:27

I suppose, if possible depending on timing and other variables, I'd have a group of probes built for a flyby (not too close) as it passes through in order to get as much data on it as possible. I'd also prepare contingency plans for a first contact situation, just in case we catch their attention. Preparations for contingencies ranging from a friendly "nice to meet you, bye." encounter all the way up to a "Holy crap, they're sending the planet smasher" development.

Most likely I'd also be fairly quiet about the whole thing. No big prime time speeches, no press releases. If some amateur spots it and asks, the official line is "we're tracking it, we don't know what it is." If someone wants to run around claiming it's an alien spacecraft... "we don't know what it is." Followed by a chuckle. Until we have concrete data, when it's on its way out.

clark · 2004-08-12 13:29:52

stick a thumb out.

Cobra Commander · 2004-08-12 13:34:18

stick a thumb out.

Clark, you know as well as I do they'd just throw you out the airlock sooner or later.

clark · 2004-08-12 13:36:44

Et Tu Brutus?

Palomar · 2004-08-12 14:03:32

*I'm hoping this thread will remain on course, in a bit of a serious vein (and without unnecessary, pointless levity).

-*-

My response would be to send probes to rendezvous with the spacecraft, along with "hailing" communications before the probes. See what response this elicits. Maybe they'll tolerate probes.

And be prepared for if they do an abrupt "about face" and go into attack mode.

I wouldn't go on a media blitz about it either (for safety reasons mostly, i.e. take as few chances for riots and fear reactions as possible). However, given the big 'scopes even some amateurs have it'd be nigh impossible to keep it from them. Especially for 12-inch mirrors and beyond...which are fairly common nowadays in the amateur set.

--Cindy

:;):

clark · 2004-08-12 14:25:32

Serious? [sigh] Let me turn the TV off with the reports of 400,000 people fleeing for their lives so I might contribute to a serious discussion related to a hypothetical situation borrowed from a science fiction story. Okay.

I wouldn't send a probe. Alien's of advanced technology, unknown origins, unknown purposes, and unknown temperament in the home solar system require a conservative approach. I guess I'm not one to play dice with the human race. That's just me.

Passive tracking via the Hubble and groub based astronomy is as far as I would go. Full spectrum tracking to verify if any attempt at communication by the alien is taking place, to us, or others.

Long distance tracking on possible points of origin to determine if there is a home system, or possible points of destination within the visible universe. I would then order a massive and generational program to study any possible solar systems of origin or destination for planetary bodies.

More than likely, a ship travelling through the solar system would be going at sub-light speeds and would in effect be it's own "home", without any particular destination. Afterall, Rama was some weird inter-dimensional portal that stretched forever on the inside, right?

I'ld let it go, revel in the proof of exsistence of something other than human, and call it a day.

Landing a probe could illicit a reaction from the aliens with unknown consquences, and we simply have to few options in a situation like this.

Euler · 2004-08-12 14:31:08

If it is an interstellar space ship, then it will likely be moving too fast for our probes to be able to reach it.

However, given the big 'scopes even some amateurs have it'd be nigh impossible to keep it from them. Especially for 12-inch mirrors and beyond...which are fairly common nowadays in the amateur set.

How big is the spacecraft, and how close will it get to Earth? If it is out at Neptune's distance, we would be lucky to see it at all, even if it were Death Star sized.

Palomar · 2004-08-12 14:45:53

Serious? [sigh] Let me turn the TV off with the reports of 400,000 people fleeing for their lives so I might contribute to a serious discussion related to a hypothetical situation borrowed from a science fiction story. Okay.

*Why so snide? And who suggested you turn off your TV to participate in this thread in the first place?

Your distractions and attentions are your decision.

-*-

Euler: If it is an interstellar space ship, then it will likely be moving too fast for our probes to be able to reach it.

*Yeah...and there's the time factor of having a probe "handy" (doubtful, as the situation is now), much less getting one built. ::edit:: Although I do think scientists could manage to slap a probe or a few of them together in time, including being able to run tests on them, etc. In that situation (once in a speciestime, surely) I believe they could manage it. ::end edit::

Euler: How big is the spacecraft, and how close will it get to Earth? If it is out at Neptune's distance, we would be lucky to see it at all, even if it were Death Star sized.

*How big...erm... Okay, about the size of an O'Neill Cylinder. And it's first spotted out by Neptune -- slowly but surely headed in our direction. Passes Earth by 1.5 AUs.

--Cindy

Palomar · 2004-08-12 14:54:28

*Euler:

I wanted to add that Neptune is 30 AU distance (you probably know that).

How fast is the ship traveling?

Well, math's not my "forte" -- let's say it'll take the spaceship 2 months to pass by Earth after it's spotted by Neptune.

Hope that helps.

--Cindy

Euler · 2004-08-12 15:30:40

So 15 au/month... the best that our technology can achieve right now is about 15 au/year, so we would not be able to have a probe match speeds with the ship. We would need an average speed of 9 au/year to be able to intercept the ship at its closest approach to Earth. The only near term technologies that can achieve such velocities (solar sails and ion engines) take much more than 2 months to achieve their maximum velocity. Basically, sending a probe is not a realistic option, even if one can be launched instantly.

However, even at the speed that the ship is traveling at, it would take about 1500 years to make the trip from Alpha Centauri to Earth. Based on its size and speed, I would say that the ship is most likely a colony ship, with everything it needs to be self-sufficient.

Palomar · 2004-08-12 15:45:04

So 15 au/month... the best that our technology can achieve right now is about 15 au/year, so we would not be able to have a probe match speeds with the ship. We would need an average speed of 9 au/year to be able to intercept the ship at its closest approach to Earth. The only near term technologies that can achieve such velocities (solar sails and ion engines) take much more than 2 months to achieve their maximum velocity. Basically, sending a probe is not a realistic option, even if one can be launched instantly.

*Thanks Euler. Bummer.

Now I'm recalling the ramjet-Jupiter thing Robert Dyck explained a while back in a different thread (matching speeds).

I'll have to re-read Clarke's treatment of how the manned Earth ship was able to rendezvous with Rama. It's been about 5 years since I read that novel. Either he skipped the details or had Rama travel very slowly...I don't recall :laugh:

So we'd be stuck with Earth-based examinations of it.

--Cindy

Trebuchet · 2004-08-12 18:22:51

I'd do earth-based observations. However, I would attempt communications, and if possible, even attempt to arrange a deal ("you just drop your in-system shuttle over by Earth for a bit, we'll have it in orbit" - likely they have smaller 'shuttlecraft' so matching speeds is not really an issue). Why pass up the opportunity?

Other than that, I agree with Cobra Commander on 'do contingency plans for everything from "they ignore us" to "PLANET SMASHERS!"'. The only difference is that I'd have to carefully consider what happens if a beneficial exchange happens.

On a nonserious note, the smart move with potentially hostile aliens is to offer them the Persian Gulf region. If they don't accept, they're not hostile, and if they do accept, the terrorists will be bothering someone else from now on.

Euler · 2004-08-12 19:20:02

I'll have to re-read Clarke's treatment of how the manned Earth ship was able to rendezvous with Rama to enter and explore it. It's been about 5 years since I read that novel. Either he skipped the details or had Rama travel very slowly...I don't recall

It seems that the novel is set in the 22nd century. It is probably assumed that there will be significant advances in spacecraft propulsion between now and then.

However, I would attempt communications, and if possible, even attempt to arrange a deal ("you just drop your in-system shuttle over by Earth for a bit, we'll have it in orbit" - likely they have smaller 'shuttlecraft' so matching speeds is not really an issue). Why pass up the opportunity?

It would be nice if we could arrange a deal, but I can't think of very many things that we can provide and that they will want.

Palomar · 2004-08-12 20:03:00

I'd do earth-based observations. However, I would attempt communications, and if possible, even attempt to arrange a deal ("you just drop your in-system shuttle over by Earth for a bit, we'll have it in orbit" - likely they have smaller 'shuttlecraft' so matching speeds is not really an issue). Why pass up the opportunity?

Euler:
It would be nice if we could arrange a deal, but I can't think of very many things that we can provide and that they will want.

*Hi Trebuchet & Euler:

If anything, perhaps they'd be willing to trade on curiosity. :;): I'd be surprised if a space-faring species could develop -without- a sense of curiosity (unless the impetus was sheer survival).

--Cindy

P.S.: Another "what if" in the mix: What if the spaceship were comprised of entirely dead beings...a vast, flying coffin as it were. How would you treat the situation, if it were in your power to call the shots? Find a way to stop the vessel and perform invasive robotic inspection? Zero sample return for fear of back contamination? Etc.?

Josh Cryer · 2004-08-13 00:36:14

Bah, the inside of the vessel is a big 'ol interdeminsional thingy? I was going to start reading Rama soon. Way to spoil.

I'd definitely want to send a probe, but obviously, as Euler points out, it would have to be a scenario where our technical abilities would be able to actually achieve anything useful. If we can detect it, I think we could catch it, and I believe that it would be so important as to compell us to do so, even if it costed many trillions of dollars to achieve the means.

Palomar · 2004-08-13 04:57:45

*Josh: No, not quite. And I apologize if some of my wording has served as a "spoiler": It -wasn't- intentional. I've gone back and edited my first post of any possible "spoiler" phrases or wording.

Read the novel. You won't be disappointed. There's lots of surprises where Rama is concerned.

--Cindy

P.S.: And you know, there can be more than one kind of spoiler in a thread.

Cobra Commander · 2004-08-13 05:25:23

And it's first spotted out by Neptune -- slowly but surely headed in our direction. Passes Earth by 1.5 AUs.

Well, math's not my "forte" -- let's say it'll take the spaceship 2 months to pass by Earth after it's spotted by Neptune.

Okay, we've got two months until arrival. It's possible we could get a quick-and-dirty probe slapped together in two weeks. Triple shifts, off-the-shelf parts, whatever you need you got it. I'm not asking for friggin' V'ger here. We then have a month and a half to launch it and get it close. We don't need to land it on the thing, just flyby. If it's passing within 1.5 AU and approaching us we don't have to catch it, just meet it. Cutting that 1.5 distance in half is perfectly acceptable, anything more is gravy.

As for clark's concerns: valid but under these circumstances... It's passing so close that they know we're here. If they care, there's not a damn thing we can do to hide. A simple spectral analysis of the planet gives us away, assuming they don't notice the transmissions blaring from Earth like a beacon or the cloud of artificial satellites circling around. If they keep passing by without a word it's not because they didn't notice us, but because they just don't want to stop and chat.

P.S.: Another "what if" in the mix: What if the spaceship were comprised of entirely dead beings...a vast, flying coffin as it were. How would you treat the situation, if it were in your power to call the shots? Find a way to stop the vessel and perform invasive robotic inspection? Zero sample return for fear of back contamination? Etc.?

Hmm. Under those circumstances I'd want to stop it and... impound it, a good distance from Earth. But as I have no idea how to actually go about doing it and doubt that the "midnight committee" formed to answer such questions would recommend anything workable... I'd say the original plan still applies.

Trebuchet · 2004-08-13 08:22:32

If a giant space coffin went wandering by without any other clue from the originating species, I wouldn't touch it with a ten-AU pole. WHo knows what weird motive they have for doing that?

That sort of thing would drive home the idea that aliens are alien and will do things for reasons that make no sense. The best thing to do is pretend not to notice it, because the course of any particular action will be wholly unknowable when dealing with something as weird as the giant space masoleum.

BWhite · 2004-08-13 08:24:04

If a giant space coffin went wandering by without any other clue from the originating species, I wouldn't touch it with a ten-AU pole. WHo knows what weird motive they have for doing that?
That sort of thing would drive home the idea that aliens are alien and will do things for reasons that make no sense. The best thing to do is pretend not to notice it, because the course of any particular action will be wholly unknowable when dealing with something as weird as the giant space masoleum.

Actually, I tend to agree.

Palomar · 2004-08-13 08:31:14

If a giant space coffin went wandering by without any other clue from the originating species, I wouldn't touch it with a ten-AU pole. WHo knows what weird motive they have for doing that?
That sort of thing would drive home the idea that aliens are alien and will do things for reasons that make no sense. The best thing to do is pretend not to notice it, because the course of any particular action will be wholly unknowable when dealing with something as weird as the giant space masoleum.

*Not a spoiler...am continuing this in the context of a vessel *similar* to Rama (but not the actual storyline...).

Perhaps I should have been more precise: What if the crew died en route? Not that an alien civilization sent out a spaceship as a coffin (as a "burial ritual" of sorts); rather, what if the crew had been hale and hearty during the expedition then all died on the way?

I think my curiosity would be going bonkers.

--Cindy

Cobra Commander · 2004-08-13 10:42:29

I don't think I could let a giant alien space-ark drift by without at least trying to examine it. If we have big space dreadnoughts to go after it with (how long have I been in charge in this scenario? ) we can bag it, board it and check it out far from Earth, but with only present equipment to work with and two months notice...

We've already discussed the passive approach, probes to glean as much as possible as it passes. But there's another, less refined option. We could try to stop it. MADMEN would be useful, but we have none as yet.

I heard that.

We could possibly try the old "hit it with nukes" approach, we've got plenty of those. IF we could get enough big warheads positioned in front of it in a line, we could perhaps detonate them in sequence, slowing and eventually stopping/redirecting the object. Once it's no longer on its way out we can prepare a more substantial expedition.

Or we might wake something up with our sunbombs and face a smiting. Nothing without risks.

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Re: A "Rama" Scenario

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