Spaceship 1 - going for it

Lars_J · 2004-07-02 13:55:47

Right now the per-trip costs of SS1 (Scaled's "Tier 1") is around $100k - the vast majority of that for replacing the expensive hybrid rocket every flight. Plus then you have to add employee overhead costs, and more. I expect them to beat the bugs out of the system, win the X-prize, and then use SS1 to experiment with new stuff for...

"Tier 2" is rumored to be a more commercial sub-orbital craft, probably very similar to SS1, but with a cheaper liquid rocket system. I suppose they may add more seats, but I expect the basic design to stay very similar, and still be light enough to be carried by their "White Knight" carrier aircraft. The per-flight costs will probably be less than 50% of SS1.

Most exepct "Tier 3" to be an orbital capable system, but I'm not so sure. It is a BIG step, for both size and complexity. The SS1 design will also have to be sewriously modified or scrapped for some new approach, IMO.

JimM · 2004-07-03 02:35:10

Cost of the system is closer to 30mil.
Rutan does not plan to use SS1 as a tourist thing, it's purely for tests.
Version two will be about 20-50k a ride. Next-gen suborbitals would be closer to 10k.
Rutan want at least 150km instead of 100, so you have longer time in microgravity...

How can you know any of this? Are you not just speculating, or passing on someone else's speculations?

I don't believe Rutan's plan is to build a su-orbital pleasure-trip boat ("Any more for the Skylark, once round the bay?") for millionaires, but to go to orbit.

But let us (and I hope, Rutan) not kid ourselves. LEO is much harder than a tiny sub-orbital jaunt. Just in terms of delta-v, and hence kinetic energy required (which is a function of the square of the delta-v) it's about 130 times harder.

But it's really much harder than just that. To get to that velocity, you've got to take enough of the propellant up to near that velocity with you, so it's there to accelerate you all the way... I suppose this might be why rocket science is supposed to be so difficult. And blindingly expensive, even for governments.

(I'm trying to inject a note of realism here, not pessimism, even if that's what it sounds like in comparison with some of our more blue-sky optimists.)

Rxke · 2004-07-03 04:11:15

All of the above numbers come from statements from Rutan himself... I've been lapping up every single statement from him, kind of a fanboy am i not?

I tend to believe him, heh.

Also he's working on orbital, it's in the drawing stage, sloppy quote: 'we're closer to orbital than you'd think'

If memory seves right, he cautiosly said something like 5-8 years...

Rxke · 2004-07-03 04:18:17

Scale Compsites is a fairly 'active' machine, when they were testing SS1, they also produced the plane that's to do the solo around-the-world trip, so i guess they can do a lot in tandem, as long as they get money from "customers" that simply ask for a finished product, and leave the design to Rutan (for SS1, that was Allen, who said, "here's the money, just do it," in essence...)

My very wild guess:

He's working on the suborbital 6-seater plans (with "bigger windows, 150km...") *AND* the orbital plans.

Customers: Allen and Virgin...

JimM · 2004-07-03 04:57:25

All of the above numbers come from statements from Rutan himself... I've been lapping up every single statement from him, kind of a fanboy am i not?
I tend to believe him, heh.
Also he's working on orbital, it's in the drawing stage, sloppy quote: 'we're closer to orbital than you'd think'
If memory seves right, he cautiosly said something like 5-8 years...

Really?

Here's selected highlights of what http://www.technewsworld.com/story/3462 … hWorldNews actually reports Rutan -- and Allen -- saying following the recent successful flight of SpaceshipOne:

QUOTE: "We're heading into orbit sooner than you think," predicted Burt Rutan, the renowned aviation pioneer Allen recruited to plan, build and launch SpaceShipOne. "The next 25 years will be a wild ride."

I'd take that to mean he's 25 years away from achieving orbit, not 5 to 8 as you recall.

QUOTE: Some of Rutan's competitors (including his brother Dick, who works down the street for the competing company XCOR Aerospace) think the approach taken by Rutan isn't necessarily the best for reaching suborbital space and won't work for achieving orbit.

I'm pretty certain his brother is right; SpaceshipOne is a dead end approach so far as getting to orbit is concerned.

QUOTE: Rutan acknowledged yesterday that the SpaceShipOne project is focused only on reaching suborbital space for now, but added that they are learning "lessons that will help us on an orbital vehicle." The rocket ship he and his team at Scaled Composites built appears capable of reaching more than 200 miles into space, but today's flight was just to get pilot Michael Mevill to reach the 62.5-mile mark that most agree is the end of our atmosphere and the beginning of space.

QUOTE: Allen said the primary goal of this project is to show that this can be done, in order to stimulate further advances that will eventually make space tourism a reality.

Fine, but I doubt there's a orbital vehicle on their drawing board (as you put it) yet.

QUOTE: "Clearly, there is an enormous pent-up hunger to fly in space and not just dream about it," Rutan said. He predicted that this is the kind of public groundswell that can make suborbital space tourism routine and affordable within the next 15 years.

IOW, even he thinks sub-orbital space tourism could be 15 years away. The 6-passenger vehicle with bigger windows is a figment of some reporter's fetid imagination, I'd say. I doubt it's on any drawing board anywhere.

(Like I said before, I'm just trying to inject some realism into this discussion.)

Rxke · 2004-07-03 07:02:39

I'm not going to start another yes-no-yes-no silly thing, don't be afraid.

Took me a while to find it back...

AW&ST reports on the SS1... Rutan is serious about an orbital vehicle and is currently at a point similar to where he was "8-9 years ago with the suborbital 100-km. plan--evaluating concepts and doing significant planning."

Considering the 8-9 yrs quote... He had a "preliminary" White Knight/SS1 plan, the Prometheus, that high-altitude plane, wich he was talking about being fitted with a rocket-powered capsule...

So it might very well take more than 8-9 yrs, Orbital being more difficult and all that, and as i said: sloppy quoting...

'bout the 25yrs: if you find the full quote he's talking about leaving orbit, not about getting to orbit...

Rxke · 2004-07-03 07:11:55

Disclaimer: i used to have a sig, warning my English is not perfect, being non-native. Should have left it there, heh.

So when i said drawing-stage, i didn't mean 'technical drawings', like in 'drawing-board,' but more the back of a napkin-sketching thing.

Shaun Barrett · 2004-07-03 08:00:14

Well, Rik, I understand you perfectly. I think your command of English is fantastic.

I'm also a Burt Rutan enthusiast, though I don't keep up with his comments as well as you do. He gets things done and I admire that.
I get the impression that if anyone can come up with a commercial, private, orbital vehicle, Burt Rutan will probably be the one to do it. There's an air of professionalism about him and he produces some mighty slick hardware.

Not that I'll be too upset if somebody else beats him to the punch, mind you. If a younger, smarter, slicker 'Burt Rutan' is out there waiting in the wings, then for me it'll be a case of "The King is dead; long live the King!"
[Sounds fickle, I suppose, but I believe in competition and I'm in a hurry! ]

John Creighton · 2004-07-03 09:11:20

Someone on this board said the x prize arose from the notion that private industry can do what NASA and the military can’t. I really don’t think there is such a conflict If the private sector can research the affordable solutions the military and NASA can devote more resources to pushing the technological envelop. I doubt the private sector will develop scram jet before NASA or the military does. It is just not going to happen. For the same reason NASA is developing nuclear powered space tugs. The private sector can develop the solar powered ones.

JimM · 2004-07-03 12:34:31

Disclaimer: i used to have a sig, warning my English is not perfect, being non-native. Should have left it there, heh.

There's not much wrong with your English, Rxke. In fact, you do a lot better than many native speakers I know.

Rutan is serious about an orbital vehicle and is currently at a point similar to where he was "8-9 years ago with the suborbital 100-km. plan--evaluating concepts and doing significant planning."

That seems to me to fit quite well with a 25 year lead time before an orbital launch. Building that sort of vehicle will be much more elaborate and difficult and time-consuming (and expensive) than SpaceshipOne was.

'bout the 25yrs: if you find the full quote he's talking about leaving orbit, not about getting to orbit...

Sorry, I don't understand this.

So when i said drawing-stage, i didn't mean 'technical drawings', like in 'drawing-board,' but more the back of a napkin-sketching thing.

Accepted. After all, 'drawing-board' is really just a figure of speech nowadays; engineers design on computers. Soon most people won't know what a drawing-board is, like most already don't really know what a slide-rule or log tables are.

JimM · 2004-07-03 12:36:50

...NASA is developing nuclear powered space tugs.

Yeh? I'd believe this when I see it.

Rxke · 2004-07-03 13:03:00

'bout the 25yrs: if you find the full quote he's talking about leaving orbit, not about getting to orbit...
Sorry, I don't understand this.

You see? Sloppy, clipped Engrish again!

I should try to be more elaborative... You quoted an article that quoted Rutan incompletely... IMO, that is...
(Aaargh, and now i should google it again...)

He was describing a future saying we'll leave orbit, make it cheaper, thanks to private yadda yadda yihaa.. and (at least I) read that future to be happening in the next 25 yrs, complete with leaving orbit..

(Off to Google...)

"We are heading to orbit sooner than you think," he said. "We do not intend to stay in low-earth orbit for decades. The next 25 years will be a wild ride. ... One that history will note was done for the benefit of everyone."

For me that reads leaving LEO in the next 25yrs... But you got me wondering about the innuendo...

JimM · 2004-07-03 13:39:16

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5327529/]Here is a very interesting news article on MSNBC that is well worth reading all the way through.

The case against space tourism as the killer app for private space needs to be put more often: this extract from that article makes a good opener...

QUOTE/
...TGV's Bahn wonders if the focus on space joyrides is a case of putting the cart before the horse, to use an analogy from an earlier transportation era.

"They shouldn't be screwing around with space tourism," Bahn said of his colleagues. "Space tourism makes a great sound bite. It's a horrendous business model. They should be talking to the military or they should be talking about hauling the mail. If you look at the history of aviation, it is the history of military reconnaissance and airmail."

For Bahn, "hauling the mail" is a metaphor for low-risk applications that may not yet have become obvious — not necessarily a killer app, but "an app which generates a steady, predictable cash flow while you're fixing up your technology."

Bahn sees the issue of liability and insurance as a huge impediment to space tourism. Even if a multimillionaire ponies up tens of thousands of dollars for a half-hour suborbital flight to see the curvature of Earth and experience weightlessness, "that's a $20 million cargo you've got in the back seat," he said.

"If your insurance costs on the payload are on the order of what you'll be charging, your business model has a big problem," Bahn said.
/END QUOTE

So space tourism is no 'killer app'. Apart from the question of liability insurance, normally overlooked, killing it dead, it's all based on the 'build it and they will come' fallacy. No person or institution with money to invest or lend for a profit will give any sort of business plan with gigantic and fatal flaws like these a moment's consideration.

(All part of my mission to inject some realism into this discussion.)

Rxke · 2004-07-03 14:21:57

I read the article. Even more: i started a dedicated thread about it, because it's so good!

Pro's and cons get equal errr... limelight(?)

both make some excellent points.

Hauling mail... Or in Elon Musk-speak: meat and potatoes (his small Falcon)

Rxke · 2004-07-08 04:24:03

Rutan says: all problems solved, and they were minor.

Going for the X-Prize now... And not two flights in two weeks, but three!

http://www.wired.com/news/space/0,2697, … ad_4]Wired

Lars_J · 2004-07-08 12:28:54

Here's an interesting quote from that article:

Rutan said passengers won't fly on SpaceShipOne, at least at first.

"The only time we could do that is the second X Prize flight, because the earlier flight is an envelope-expansion flight" during which SpaceShipOne will fly with a heavier payload and employ a longer rocket burn than on earlier missions.

"Whether we fly passengers on the second flight we'll decide later, but there's no way we'll do that on the first flight," he said.

Given the contest's requirement of 60 days' notice before a prize attempt -- and the lack of any notice so far -- the earliest Rutan or other teams could fly for the cash is now around Labor Day. The prize offer expires at the end of the year.

clark · 2004-07-08 12:40:43

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/natu … 876455.stm

Private space ship 'back to form'

SpaceShipOne, the world's first private space craft, is back on course for the Ansari X-Prize after solving technical hitches following June's historic trip.

"We plan our next two flights to be the X-Prize attempts. Announcement of the dates will be made by the X-Prize foundation," he said. [Rutan]
He added: "We have high confidence that we will win this year."

Well, we will hear soon...

Now the problems had been ironed out, Rutan said that SpaceShipOne would not just settle for two flights during its X-Prize attempt, but three

Wow! Going for the extra mile!

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#76 2004-07-02 13:55:47

Re: Spaceship 1 - going for it

#77 2004-07-03 02:35:10

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#83 2004-07-03 08:00:14

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#84 2004-07-03 09:11:20

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#85 2004-07-03 12:34:31

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#86 2004-07-03 12:36:50

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#87 2004-07-03 13:03:00

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#88 2004-07-03 13:39:16

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#89 2004-07-03 14:21:57

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#90 2004-07-08 04:24:03

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