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#3276 2026-08-27 13:13:30
- RobertDyck
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- From: Winnipeg, Canada
- Registered: 2002-08-20
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Re: Politics
US consumes 20.6 million barrels of oil per day.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, a part of the US government.
US production in 2026, each month January...May, in thousands of barrels per day: 13,305 13,711 13,726 13,967 13,714
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, different page
Average: 13,684.6 thousand barrels per day = 13.6756 million barrels per day.
This means the US is short 7 million barrels per day. The US must import that.
Imports from Canada: 4 million barrels per day
Source: EIA - U.S. Imports by Country of Origin
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#3277 2026-08-27 15:02:26
- Void
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Re: Politics
Query: "Is the United States a net importer of oil products and Oil?"
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The United States is currently a net exporter of total petroleum, but it still imports crude oil to meet specific refinery needs.
Current Trade Balance
The U.S. has been exporting more petroleum and petroleum products than it imports since 2019, with exports consistently exceeding imports in most months since then. In 2025, the U.S. exported about 10.7 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil and petroleum products, while imports were roughly 7.9 million b/d, resulting in a net export of approximately 2.8 million b/d
USAFacts
USAFacts
. This marks a significant shift from the mid-2000s when the U.S. imported around 60% of its oil consumption
elchemy.com
elchemy.com
.Crude Oil vs. Total Petroleum
Although the U.S. is a net exporter of total petroleum, it remains a net importer of crude oil. In 2022, the U.S. imported about 6.28 million b/d of crude oil while exporting 3.58 million b/d
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
. Much of the imported crude is refined domestically into products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are then exported
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
. This explains why the U.S. can be a net exporter overall while still importing crude.Major Import Sources
Canada is the largest supplier of oil to the U.S., providing roughly 60% of imports, followed by Mexico and OPEC nations, which collectively supply a smaller portion
elchemy.com
elchemy.com
. The reliance on North American sources enhances energy security and reduces exposure to geopolitical risks in the Middle East
elchemy.com
elchemy.com
.Historical Context
U.S. oil imports peaked in 2005 at about 12.55 million b/d. Since then, domestic production, particularly from shale oil, has increased dramatically, reducing net imports and eventually turning the U.S. into a net exporter of total petroleum
usimportdata.com
usimportdata.com
. Despite this, certain refineries are optimized for heavy crude from Canada and Mexico, maintaining a continued need for imports
elchemy.com
elchemy.com
.Summary
Net exporter of total petroleum since 2019
Net importer of crude oil to supply specific refinery needs
Major import sources: Canada, Mexico, and OPEC nations
Domestic production now meets 65–70% of U.S. oil needs
elchemy.com
elchemy.comThis dual status reflects the complexity of U.S. oil markets, where exports of refined products and imports of crude coexist to optimize refinery operations and meet domestic and international demand.
So, if I understand it, we could have dummed down our refineries to work only on Shale Oil or Oil produced in the USA. But instead we do import higher Carbon Oil as it is easier to get things like Diesel from higher carbon Oil.
If I am to believe Peter Zeihan, shale oil is far from done. Yields are still rising.
The US oil industry has two manipulations to deal with price swings.
1) Partially build wells.
2) Petroleum Storage.
The question is do Oil price swings ride us or do we ride oil price swings.
So, it looks like a lot of the oil that the USA "Consumes" goes into making exported refined products.
Oil from Canada is a good thing for both countries. But as far as I know B.C. and Quebec blocking pipelines is not our fault.
Ending Pending 
* THANKYOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
Ending Pending
Last edited by Void (2026-08-27 15:42:13)
Be careful what you wish for.
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#3278 2026-08-27 16:40:09
- RobertDyck
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- From: Winnipeg, Canada
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Re: Politics
So now you have a choice: believe the federal government of the USA, who has statistics, or believe Peter Zeihan. Yes, I heard videos from Peter Zeihan in which he said the US is a net oil exporter. He is an economist who gets paid to express his opinion to people who have lots of money to invest. Many Americans get butthurt when they hear things they don't like. When they get butthurt, they stop paying to hear those things. An honest analyst will tell you the truth, so you know what's coming and can plan accordingly. Videos I've seen from Peter Zeihan sound as if he really believes what he's saying. But again, do you believe him, or do you believe the federal government of the USA?
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#3279 2026-08-27 18:20:19
- Void
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Re: Politics
I do listen to Peter Zeihan, but have only some faith in what he diagnoses.
Not referring to him but there is a saying, "Liars Figure and Figures Lie".
But the Bible has a saying "The Truth Shall Make You Free".
So, I think it is good to seek the truth if it does not endanger you to do so.
Query: "What countries does the USA export Petroleum Products to?"
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The United States primarily exports petroleum to Mexico, Canada, the Netherlands, Japan, and South Korea, with Mexico being the largest recipient.
Leading Export Destinations
Mexico – The top destination for U.S. petroleum exports, receiving approximately $33.63 billion worth in 2024-25, accounting for 28.6% of total exports. Mexico’s high demand for petroleum products supports its economy and infrastructure, making it a key trade partner
usimportdata.com
usimportdata.com
.
Canada – The second-largest importer, with $11.88 billion in imports (10.1% of total exports). Proximity and strong energy sector collaboration facilitate efficient trade
usimportdata.com
usimportdata.com
.
Netherlands – A major European hub, importing $6.03 billion (5.1% of total exports). Its strategic location and refining capabilities make it an attractive market for U.S. petroleum
usimportdata.com
usimportdata.com
+1
.
Japan – A significant Asian market, with growing imports of U.S. crude and refined products, reflecting Japan’s energy needs and reliance on imported petroleum
usimportdata.com
usimportdata.com
+1
.
South Korea – Another key Asian destination, importing substantial volumes of U.S. crude oil and refined products, supporting its industrial and transportation sectors
digitalenergyby5.com
digitalenergyby5.com
.
Chile – Importing $5.61 billion (4.8% of total exports), Chile’s stable economy and increasing energy demand make it a notable U.S. petroleum partner
usimportdata.com
usimportdata.com
.
United Kingdom – Receiving $4.03 billion (3.4% of total exports), the U.S.-UK historical ties and energy trade agreements strengthen this relationship
usimportdata.com
usimportdata.com
.
India – Emerging as a fast-growing market, with U.S. crude exports increasing significantly, reflecting India’s expanding energy consumption
The Observatory of Economic Complexity
The Observatory of Economic Complexity
+1
.
Chinese Taipei (Taiwan) – Importing $5.6 billion in U.S. crude petroleum, highlighting its reliance on foreign energy sources
The Observatory of Economic Complexity
The Observatory of Economic Complexity
.
Germany – A key European consumer of U.S. refined petroleum products, supporting transportation and industrial sectors
digitalenergyby5.com
digitalenergyby5.com
.
Overview
In 2025, the U.S. exported around $100 billion of crude petroleum, making it one of the country’s top export commodities
The Observatory of Economic Complexity
The Observatory of Economic Complexity
. Exports include both crude oil and refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, which are critical for global transportation and industrial use
digitalenergyby5.com
digitalenergyby5.com
. The U.S. continues to expand its petroleum export markets, with China, India, and Canada identified as having the highest growth potential for future exports
The Observatory of Economic Complexity
The Observatory of Economic Complexity
.
These trade relationships not only support the U.S. economy but also influence global energy markets, ensuring a steady supply of petroleum to key international partners.
I am not sure if that includes Natural Gas or not:
Query: "What countries does the USA export Natural Gas Products to?"
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The U.S. exports natural gas primarily through pipelines to neighboring countries and as liquefied natural gas (LNG) to global markets.
Pipeline Exports
The United States exports natural gas via pipelines to countries that share borders, mainly Mexico and Canada. Pipelines provide a direct, cost-effective method for transporting gas over land. For example, pipelines from Texas and the Permian Basin deliver natural gas to northern Mexico, supporting power generation and industrial demand there, while Canadian imports into the U.S. help balance regional supply and demand
stanwichenergy.com
stanwichenergy.com
. Pipeline exports are particularly suited for regional trade where infrastructure allows continuous delivery.LNG Exports
For countries beyond North America, the U.S. relies on liquefied natural gas (LNG). LNG is natural gas that has been cooled to -160°C (-256°F), reducing its volume by about 600 times, which makes it economical to transport over long distances by specialized LNG tankers
Department of Energy
Department of Energy
+1
. Once it reaches the destination, LNG is regasified at import terminals and distributed through local pipelines.
The U.S. has eight large-scale LNG export terminals along the Gulf Coast, with additional facilities under construction. These terminals handle the liquefaction, storage, and loading of LNG onto ships. Since 2016, U.S. LNG has reached 48 countries, with Europe being the largest regional importer and South Korea the single largest country importer
Department of Energy
Department of Energy
. LNG exports allow U.S. producers to access higher-priced global markets, balancing domestic supply and supporting production.Regulatory Framework
All U.S. natural gas exports, including LNG, are regulated by the Department of Energy (DOE) under the Natural Gas Act. Exporters must obtain authorization for transactions with foreign buyers, following rules in 10 CFR Part 590. Recent policy changes, such as Executive Order 14154, have facilitated approvals for exports to non-free trade agreement countries, expanding U.S. access to global markets
Department of Energy
Department of Energy
.Economic and Strategic Rationale
Exporting natural gas benefits the U.S. economy by providing revenue for producers, supporting jobs in energy-producing regions, and helping stabilize domestic prices by reducing oversupply. Strategically, U.S. LNG exports have become important for energy security in Europe and Asia, offering alternatives to other suppliers and strengthening international partnerships
energynow.com
energynow.com
.
In summary, the U.S. exports natural gas through pipelines for regional trade and LNG for global markets, supported by advanced infrastructure, regulatory approvals, and strategic economic considerations.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
In the future, I think that solar panels will be 34% + efficient. So, the USA mostly, and Mexico quite a lot will be able to export the results of that which could be chemical outputs and electrical transmissions.
Canada might do well to partner with us, as we are not without benefits to offer.
But Hate is not a good path to that sort of thing.
Ending Pending
Last edited by Void (2026-08-27 18:30:45)
Be careful what you wish for.
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#3280 2026-08-27 21:06:17
- Void
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Re: Politics
This is of interesting, but may be a bit tedious: https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/r … 4a1655361f Quote:
Trump Announces 2 UNEXPECTED Moves - $4 Million Fraudster ARRESTED!!
-Medicare Fraud
-Oil from Venezuela
-Military nuclear micro-reactors.
The micro-reactors may be of importance about the Moon and Mars, I might think.
Ending Pending
Last edited by Void (2026-08-27 21:08:10)
Be careful what you wish for.
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#3281 2026-08-28 16:12:29
- RobertDyck
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- From: Winnipeg, Canada
- Registered: 2002-08-20
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Re: Politics
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#3282 2026-08-29 08:03:31
- Calliban
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- From: Northern England, UK
- Registered: 2019-08-18
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Re: Politics
Trump renames 'Lake Ontario'. Now it is 'Lake America'.
https://youtu.be/HR3jIBJkhPg
Well that was well worth his time :-) One wonders what random thing he will do next.
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
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#3283 2026-08-29 08:51:05
- Void
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Re: Politics
We need an American Ocean or at least a Sea.
Ending Pending :-)
Be careful what you wish for.
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#3284 2026-09-01 22:09:32
- RobertDyck
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- From: Winnipeg, Canada
- Registered: 2002-08-20
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Re: Politics
Saw a post on Facebook:
in 1901 the Mounties chased Trump's illegal-immigrant grandfather, Friedrich, out of Canada for pimping prostitutes and cheating at cards at his sleazebag flopjoint, the Arctic Hotel, in Whitehorse, Yukon during the Klondike Gold Rush. That's the truth -- which Trump can't handle -- and the main reason the Trump family hates Canada so much.
Canada/US relations have been greatly damaged, and this stupid trade war is harming both countries. So all this is personal? Over Trump's grandfather?
Wikipedia: Frederick Trump
Frederick Trump (born Friedrich Trump, German: [ˈfʁidʁɪç ˈtʁʊmp]; March 14, 1869 – May 30, 1918) was a German and American businessman. He was the patriarch of the Trump family and the paternal grandfather of Donald Trump, the 45th and 47th president of the United States.
Born and raised in Kallstadt, in what was then the Kingdom of Bavaria, Trump immigrated to the United States in 1885. In 1891, he began speculating in real estate in Seattle. During the Klondike Gold Rush, he moved to Yukon, Canada, and made his fortune by operating a restaurant and a brothel for miners in Whitehorse.
In 1901, Trump returned to Kallstadt and married fellow Bavarian Elisabeth Christ. As he had failed to complete mandatory military service and notify the authorities of his departure in 1885, the Bavarian government stripped him of his citizenship in 1905 and ordered him to leave. Consequently, he returned to the United States with his family.
Trump worked as a barber and manager of a restaurant-hotel and was beginning to acquire real estate in Queens when he died in the 1918 flu pandemic.
Yukon Gold Rush; Trump's hotels and brothels
According to Blair's account, when Frederick Trump left for the Yukon, he had no plans to do actual mining. He likely travelled the White Pass route,[6]: 83 which included the notorious "Dead Horse trail", so named because drivers whipped animals of transport until they dropped dead on the trail and were left to decompose. In the spring of 1898, Trump and another miner named Ernest Levin opened a tent restaurant along the trail. Blair writes that "a frequent dish was fresh-slaughtered, quick-frozen horse".
In May 1898, Frederick Trump and Levin moved to Bennett, British Columbia, a town known for prospectors building boats in order to travel to Dawson. In Bennett, Trump and Levin opened the Arctic Restaurant and Hotel, which offered fine dining, lodging and sex in a sea of tents. The Arctic was also originally housed in a tent, but demand for the hotel and restaurant grew until it occupied a two-story building. A letter to the Yukon Sun newspaper described the Arctic:
For single men the Arctic has excellent accommodations as well as the best restaurant in Bennett, but I would not advise respectable women to go there to sleep as they are liable to hear that which would be repugnant to their feelings – and uttered, too, by the depraved of their own sex.
The Arctic House was one of the largest and most extravagant restaurants in that region of the Klondike, offering fresh fruit and ptarmigan in addition to the staple of horse meat. The Arctic was open 24 hours a day and advertised "Rooms for ladies", which included beds and scales for measuring gold dust. The local detachment of North-West Mounted Police were known to tolerate vice so long as it was conducted discreetly.
In 1900, the 111-mile (179 km) White Pass and Yukon Route, a railroad between Skagway, Alaska and Whitehorse, Yukon, was completed. Trump founded the White Horse Restaurant and Inn in Whitehorse. They moved the building by barge, relocated on Front Street, and were operational by June.
The new restaurant, which included one of the largest steel ranges in the area, prepared 3,000 meals per day and had space for gambling. Despite the enormous financial success, Trump and Levin began fighting due to Levin's drinking. They broke up their business relationship in February 1901, but reconciled in April. Around that time, the local government announced the suppression of prostitution, gambling and liquor, though the crackdown was delayed by businessmen until later that year. In light of this impending threat to his business operation, Trump sold his share of the restaurant to Levin and left the Yukon. In the months that followed, Levin was arrested for public drunkenness and sent to jail, and the Arctic was taken over by the Mounties. The restaurant burned down in the Whitehorse fire of 1905. Blair wrote that "once again, in a situation that created many losers, [Frederick Trump] managed to emerge a winner."
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#3285 2026-09-03 05:13:02
- Calliban
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Re: Politics
I think it is entirely possible that Trump is motivated (at least partly) by a chip on his shoulder. He has freely admitted, even boasted, that he likes to make decisions on the spot. That means without taking outside advice and without having any well worked out plan. Just there and then, based on his personal feelings at that particular moment. He thinks it is manly to be decisive and to be independent of others.
That explains a lot about what we are seeing. The US trade policy on any particular day depends upon how Trump happens to feel on that day. Did he happen to get out of the wrong side of the bed? Maybe someone wrote something that angered him, therefore the tariff rate will double today. Maybe he will backtrack tomorrow, only to reverse again the next day. The truth is that Trump is incompetent, just as Biden was before him. Competence isn't about the specific politics that Trump represents. It is about his personal ability to do the job. For a president, that means listening to the opinions of others and delegation of responsibility. And it is clear as day that Trump just doesn't have the training or personal qualities to be a competent leader.
All of this is having a disastrous effect on business investment at a time when North America needs to rebuild it's industrial base to cope with the impending Chinese and European demographic implosion. Trump has blown up NAFTA at the exact time when massive cross border investments in manufacturing were needed most. No one here can change who he is or what he is doing. We might hope that the next president (probably JD Vance) will have better personal qualities. But if I were a Canadian, I wouldn't be prepared to wait two years on the off chance that the next US president will undo the damage that this one has done. Canada clearly needs another option that doesn't depend upon the goodwill of its more powerful neighbour.
Last edited by Calliban (2026-09-03 05:23:11)
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
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#3286 2026-09-03 18:00:08
- Calliban
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Re: Politics
The Blazing Redcoat issues a new video discussing CANZUK.
https://youtu.be/kuwwEHsdLvs
My only condition is that they find a better name than CANZUK. Doesn't exactly roll off the tongue.
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
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#3287 2026-09-11 04:39:31
- Calliban
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- From: Northern England, UK
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Re: Politics
This video explains how absurd Britain has become.
https://youtu.be/vOEr2S1eEi0
Anyone with an ounce of talent and ambition just wants to leave.
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
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#3288 2026-09-29 03:11:38
- RobertDyck
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Re: Politics
Maybe I shouldn't weigh in on Iran. But I was thinking, why is resupply so difficult? Last month there was concern that the USS Abraham Lincoln was short of food while deployed in the Strait of Hormuz. The base in Bahrain was damaged. But every Nimitz class aircraft carrier has 2 C-2 Greyhound cargo aircraft. Yes, limited range. But a C-130 Hercules, or C-17 Globemaster III, or some other cargo aircraft could carry supplies to a base in the region. Then transfer supplies to a C-2 Greyhound, to ferry those supplies to the ship. Isn't that what the C-2 are for? The US has multiple bases on the region. There are 3 air bases plus an airport in Oman where this could be done. If nearest supplies are Diego Garcia, that's 4,136km (2,233 nautical miles) one way. The C-2 Greyhound can only fly 1,300 nmi (2,400km) while carrying 10,000 pounds (4,500kg) of cargo. One way. But distance from Strait of Hormuz to Muscat International Airport is 398km, depending where in the Strait the carrier is located. Definitely can be reached. If not that airport, there are others.
This is basic logistics. Isn't that a basic part of the job for any officer of rank Colonel or Navy Captain or higher? Secretary of Defense shouldn't even have to address this himself, there should be staff to do this.
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#3289 2026-09-29 11:18:09
- RobertDyck
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Re: Politics
Quantity of food used on a US aircraft carrier per day:
1,600 pounds of meat, 350 pounds of lettuce, 160 gallons of milk, 30 cases of cereal, and 20,000 cups of coffee every single day.
A case of cereal weighs 12 to 18 pounds. 20 to 22 pounds of coffee grounds per thousand cups of coffee. One gallon milk weighs 8.34 pounds.
So 30 x 18 = 540 pounds cereal. 20 x 22 = 440 pounds coffee. 160 x 8.34 = 1334.4 pounds.
1,600 + 350 + 1334.4 + 540 + 440 = 4264.4 pounds. So 1 week provisions would weigh 29850.8 pounds. Round that off to 30,000 pounds. A C-2 Greyhound can carry 10,000 pounds cargo. So this means 3 trips per week. Each ship carries 2 such aircraft.
Yahoo: The Staggering Amount Of Food American Aircraft Carriers Have To Keep In Stock
Wikipedia: C-2 Greyhound specifications
Diego Garcia has C-17 Globemaster III aircraft. One such aircraft can carry 170,900 pounds of cargo. So each week one C-17 could carry supplies to an airport in the Middle East. There's no way a C-17 could land on a carrier, but a C-2 Greyhound could ferry supplies to the ship. C-2 is smaller, designed to land on the ship. It would take at least 3 trips to ferry one weeks food rations to the ship. Perhaps other supplies would be required, so a 4th trip. Once per week.
Muscat International Airport is open and operational. That's just one airport. There are others.
Above calculations leave out potatoes, flour, vegetables, etc. Later in the article it says a carrier transfers 400,000 to 700,000 pounds to a carrier once every 7 to 10 days. Ok, let's use 400,000 once per week. And supplies are transferred ship-to-ship via cable. Why can't a supply ship deliver supplies to a carrier in the Strait of Hormuz? This is normal Navy operations. You could use a C-2 Greyhound for 40 trips per week, or one single trip with a supply ship. There's no need for the carrier to sail all the way to Diego Garcia. In worst case combat conditions, just sail the carrier out of range of Iranian weapons before ship-to-ship transfer. That should be possible in the Gulf of Oman. It shouldn't even be necessary to sail to the Arabian Sea. Sailing all the way to Diego Garcia? That means someone doesn't know about how carriers are supplied at sea. (hint: a certain Secretary of War)
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#3290 2026-09-30 12:00:28
- Calliban
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Re: Politics
In life support, we have spoken about using acetate salts as fuels for plant and fungi growth as a form of artificial photosynthesis. Maybe carriers would be a good first application for this technology. There is abundant electricity thanks to the pressurised water reactors that drive them. But if we do that the technology would become 'duel use' under US ITAR regulations and would then need their approval to use anywhere else. A good reason not to give those people anything.
Last edited by Calliban (2026-09-30 12:02:25)
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
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#3291 2026-09-30 13:33:28
- RobertDyck
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Re: Politics
YouTube: How US aircraft carriers resupply in the middle of the ocean (the hidden dangers will shock you)
Video of at sea resupply of USS Gerald R. Ford, the latest US aircraft carrier. Video is 9 months old. 14 minutes long. Narration is dramatic. Shows how to transfer a pallet at a time of supplies from a dedicated purpose-built US Navy supply ship to the carrier. Includes sending a fuel hose to transfer aircraft fuel for aircraft that operate off the ship. The Navy has been doing this for multiple decades. Again, there's no need for the carrier to sail to Diego Garcia.
Again, narration is overly dramatic. Doing this near the Strait of Hormuz would not require the ships moving at maximum speed. They could slow to a crawl. Just barely moving enough so the ships could manoeuvre, to maintain correct distance between ships.
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#3292 2026-09-30 14:13:37
- RobertDyck
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Re: Politics
Calliban, all the life support for the Large Ship could be used. An American carrier is big, has a reactor, a lot of crew to supply. But space on the ship is for combat equipment. No room for hydroponics or aquaponics. Doubt they would want to bother with vats to convert starch into sugar, or grow protein for artificial flour.
The US navy did investigate using Mars ISPP technology to make aircraft fuel. But it was a study only. They need to focus on things like making their linear magnetic catapult work reliably.
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#3293 2026-10-02 14:54:33
- Calliban
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Re: Politics
Nick Griffin's latest substack post discusses the impending fuel and food crisis that is headed our way.
https://nickgriffin544956.substack.com/
"The Great Fuel Crisis Is Here.” Energy Apocalypse Now?
Apocalyptic’ fuel prices have arrived! In the 2007 movie I Am Legend, U.S. petrol cost $6.63 a gallon on the eve of the end of the world. The price seemed so absurd that it made it into the final act.
But California petrol stations are seeing even higher prices—up to $6.87 with no end in sight to the pain. Meanwhile, diesel topped $8. The Trump/Netanyahu war has outdone post-apocalypse fiction, without a pandemic or any zombies outside of the political elite.
Those who see this getting a whole lot worse now include executives at major U.S. oil companies. An article in The Wall Street Journal on 14 September revealed that industry insiders believe that the energy crisis has now entered its most serious phase.
“Oil Executives Say the Great Fuel Crisis Is Here”, ran the headline. “Trump officials say the oil-market disruption is temporary, but Chevron’s Mike Wirth and others warn global supplies are running low, with no respite in sight.”
Six months of commercial fuel stocks dwindling means that even strategic crude oil reserves are now scraping the barrel. Speaking at an energy conference in Austin, Texas, the Chevron CEO explained that the energy system doesn’t have the buffers it had when the Middle East war began.
These were healthy reserves throughout the industry worldwide, the release of huge quantities of strategic reserves – including by China, which also rapidly slashed its oil consumption by ramping up its energy shift to electricity. The early months of the Iran conflict saw big production increases by the USA and other non-Gulf producers. Higher prices also suppressed demand.
“Those have largely now played out,” Wirth said of such mitigating factors, concluding that “it’s harder to envision a scenario where prices soften and quickly”. He foresees even higher prices over the next few months, according to Energy News Beat.
While soaring fuel prices are the most immediate worry for millions of Americans, it’s the deepening diesel crunch that is the real danger to society as a whole. While some petrol stations are reportedly running dry, the national diesel price has surged to a record high. The shortage is straining trucking, agriculture, and freight, adding roughly $700million daily to fuel costs.
Even worse is already on the way. The ULSD crack spread - the margin between diesel and crude - topped $108 a barrel on September 3. The spread has quadrupled to levels never seen before, tantamount to oil at $190. Distillate inventories fell to roughly 103 million barrels in late August, the lowest for that point in the calendar since 1951. The EIA expects them to stay below 100 million through much of 2027.
This is despite the fact that the USA is protected from the worst impact of the global crisis by its own enormous hydrocarbon production. Much of the rest of the world - and particularly Britain - is even more exposed.
The thing which has so depleted global reserves is the war on Iran and the resulting drastic reduction in the number of tankers getting through the Straits of Hormuz. Pre-war flows through Hormuz were around 20–21 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude and products. With this slashed by three-quarters, cumulative export losses via the Strait are now into billions of barrels.
For months, this was partly offset by an increase in output through Saudi Arabia’s East-West (Petroline) pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. This was moving 4–5 mb/d, about 4–5% of global supply.
A series of devastating drone strikes on the pipeline and missile hits on Yanbu have shown that this supply can very easily be shut off. Claims of a “precautionary shutdown” are belied by satellite photos of catastrophic damage and missile strike follow-ups to the original attack. Repairs do now seem to have been carried out, but the rapid depletion of defensive missile stocks is making it ever harder to defend even critical infrastructure in the event of a fresh flare-up of hostilities.
Simultaneously, Houthi forces have intensified pressure on the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait at its southern end. They have seized territory including the Port of Mokha and Perim Island, and conducted attacks that have raised insurance premiums and deterred traffic.
Saudi Arabia has been meddling in Yemen’s civil war since 2014. The Houthis have now said that they will keep the Bab-el-Mandeb closed to all Saudi shipping until the Saudis agree to a ceasefire. That, however, is nearly as unlikely as Israel stopping its aggression against Iran, so both of the Middle East’s critical waterways look set to stay effectively shut for the foreseeable future.
On the positive side, the last couple of weeks have seen a big jump in the shipping of crude oil out of the Middle East, with some claims of a return to more than 90% of the pre-war figure. Extensive damage to refineries, however, means that the export of refined products - crucially diesel and aviation fuel - is still only at 53% of normal.
The crisis is being made even worse by the fact that Russian supplies face parallel pressure from Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries. Dozens of Russian plants have been hit. Normally the world’s second-largest diesel exporter, Russia banned exports outright on July 9th.
With production and shipping more constrained than ever, reserves are reaching the ‘tank bottom’ below which sludge starts to wreck refinery plants. The scene is set for an autumn of increasing energy pain.
Markets are already pricing the risk, with warnings that Brent could reach $120 if the attacks continue. A tipping point could arrive even before winter if the current multi-front pressure persists without diplomatic relief that restores safe passage.
Trump’s threatened increased attacks on Iran, far from ending the crisis, would provoke devastating retaliation against Washington’s increasingly nervous and disillusioned Gulf allies, as well as expending the USA’s remaining advanced missile stocks. Defence of the biggest U.S. base in Jordan from missiles in the last big Iranian strike used about 10% of all remaining Patriot missiles – and, despite that, the base was seriously damaged.
A militarily imposed settlement is therefore off the table, but Iran’s proposed peace terms would be such a humiliation to Washington and Israel that they are extremely unlikely to be accepted.
All this brings us ever closer to a shattering energy crisis. The world is only a few twists of the vicious circle away not just from insane gas prices but also widespread fuel shortages, industrial slowdowns or shutdowns, food-price spikes from higher transport/fertiliser costs, and potential social unrest in vulnerable importing nations.
The outlook for the UK is particularly grim, since the political elite’s long-running war on fossil fuels has closed most of our refineries. Even if we can import the crude, we can no longer turn most of it into diesel. Hence Trump’s threat to ban the export of U.S. diesel - while not necessarily going to become reality - is a Sword of Damocles hanging over both drivers and the economy as a whole.
A winter heating crisis looms, while economic damage will compound via higher inflation and interest rates hikes. Unresolved, the Iran crisis is fraught with the risk of renewed escalation. This would threaten global recession and then Depression. And it is hard to see how a resolution is possible.
An exchange between Fox News and U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright neatly encapsulates the potentially disastrous gap between the political elite and reality:
Fox News: “Will the price of gasoline in the United States remain at this level for the foreseeable future?”
Chris Wright: “Look, President Trump is not going to let Iran get a nuclear weapon that easily.”
Fox News: “Are you brave enough to name a time frame for reducing energy prices?”
Chris Wright: “I absolutely cannot predict Iran’s behaviour.”
What we can predict, is that this is not going to end well!
To finish on a practical note: If you’ve got some spare cash, you should put some of it into improving your stock of non-perishable foodstuffs (don’t rely on the freezer, a period of cold, still, cloudy weather this winter is liable to bring our state-sabotaged electricity grid to extensive blackouts). If your car runs on diesel, keep the tank topped up and store some extra if you have somewhere to keep the containers.
Not because of the government’s “Russia, Russia, Russia” scaremongering, but because price hikes and real shortages are all too likely. Not thanks to Mr. Putin, but thanks to Trump, Netanyahu, and the crooks and cretins who’ve been running our country into the ground for decades.
Last edited by Calliban (2026-10-02 14:56:29)
"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."
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#3294 2026-10-02 20:28:01
- Void
- Member
- Registered: 2011-12-29
- Posts: 9,964
Re: Politics
After the American Mid-Term Elections, this may change.
The contest between Globalists and Sovietisms.
The Globalists want to break MAGA, and Re-Biden the USA, then send the youth of the west to be slaughtered in the Ukraine.
Then replace the Europeans with new 3rd world rulers.
It does not look like they will win just now.
Wrecking the economy is the Globalist last chance, we hope, as I think we may survive it.
When the Mid-Terms are over it may be that the tactic will be considered useless.
Ending
Last edited by Void (2026-10-02 20:28:56)
Be careful what you wish for.
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