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#2376 2026-08-27 15:55:44
- Oldfart1939
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- Registered: 2016-11-26
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Re: Starship is Go...
Starship 40 is already loaded on the semisubmersible ship FORTE and is now secured for transport back to Starbase.
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#2377 2026-08-31 10:29:17
- GW Johnson
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Re: Starship is Go...
I see reports that static fires of the two Flight 14 stages have taken place. The launch is supposedly targeted for mid-September, and will be fully orbital. To include release of some operational Starlinks. Tower catches were not mentioned in the latest story that I saw.
GW
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"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew, especially one dead from a bad management decision"
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#2378 2026-08-31 17:29:22
- SpaceNut
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Re: Starship is Go...
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#2379 2026-09-14 15:04:28
- SpaceNut
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Re: Starship is Go...
SpaceX Faces Starship Dilemma: Starlink Revenue or Moonshot R&D?
NASA Needs a Different Starship
Each launch gives engineers another chance to test reliability, reentry and reuse, all of which are needed before humans can fly.
big under statement since cryogenic fuels are an issue for distance.
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#2380 2026-09-17 08:04:48
Re: Starship is Go...
That the last three flights have only ca. 44 tons payload raises the possibility this is V3’s payload capability. This possibility has been speculated about before online:
https://www.google.com/search?q=article … ons+to+LEO
If so, then SpaceX will need yet another iteration V4 to serve as the Artemis lander, as 44 tons is too small for the refueling plans, requiring 30 to 40 fueling flights for a single lunar landing mission.
And then are we sure V4 would actually get to the 100 tons point either?
Bob Clark
Last edited by RGClark (2026-09-17 08:05:33)
Old Space rule of acquisition (with a nod to Star Trek - the Next Generation):
“Anything worth doing is worth doing for a billion dollars.”
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#2381 2026-09-17 08:37:54
- Void
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Re: Starship is Go...
Obviously, GW is the guy for a reply, but I will offer this:
Query: "Did the Falcon 9 cargo capacity increase over time?"
Quote:
Copilot Search Branding
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Falcon 9 Cargo Capacity Over Time
Yes — the Falcon 9’s cargo capacity has increased significantly from its first version in 2010 to the current Block 5 configuration.Original v1.0 (2010–2013)
LEO payload: ~10,400kg (22,900lb) when expendable
Wikipedia
WikipediaGTO payload: ~4,500kg (9,900lb)
Wikipedia
WikipediaPowered by 9× Merlin1C engines, with a launch mass of ~333,000kg.
This version was fully expendable, with no stage reusability.
v1.1 (2013–2016)
LEO payload: ~13,100kg (28,900lb)
Wikipedia
WikipediaGTO payload: ~4,800kg (10,600lb)
Wikipedia
WikipediaUpgraded to Merlin1D engines in an octaweb layout, longer tanks, and first attempts at first-stage landings.
Full Thrust (v1.2, 2015–2018)
LEO payload: ~22,800kg (50,300lb)
Wikipedia
WikipediaGTO payload: ~8,300kg (18,300lb)
Wikipedia
WikipediaIntroduced densified, sub-cooled propellants, increasing fuel load and performance.
Block5 (2018–present)
LEO payload: ~22,800kg (50,300lb)
Wikipedia
Wikipedia
+1GTO payload: ~8,300kg (18,300lb) expendable; ~5,500kg (12,100lb) when first stage lands
Wikipedia
WikipediaDesigned for rapid reuse, with improved engines, thermal protection, and grid fins.
Fairing recovery also reduces cost and increases effective payload.
Summary of growth
From v1.0 to v1.1: LEO capacity increased by ~30% (10.4ton → 13.1ton).
From v1.1 to Full Thrust: LEO capacity more than doubled (13.1ton → 22.8ton).
Block5 maintains the same LEO rating as Full Thrust but improves GTO performance when reusability is factored in.
Conclusion:
The Falcon 9’s cargo capacity has more than doubled in LEO since its debut, driven by engine upgrades, propellant densification, and structural improvements. The Block5 version now offers the highest LEO payload of any Falcon9 variant, while reusability and fairing recovery further enhance its operational efficiency
Wikipedia
Wikipedia
+2
.
So, nothing guaranteed, but there is hope.
Your argument against Starship would have been appropriate for Falcon 9 in the beginning, but it would have been a disgrace for comments such as yours to have killed Falcon 9 in its infancy.
Ending Pending :-)
Last edited by Void (2026-09-17 08:42:30)
Be careful what you wish for.
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#2382 2026-09-23 16:20:21
Re: Starship is Go...
To quote that great home-spun philosopher Lt. Commander Montgomery Scott, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
Bob Clark
Old Space rule of acquisition (with a nod to Star Trek - the Next Generation):
“Anything worth doing is worth doing for a billion dollars.”
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#2383 2026-09-23 18:27:38
- tahanson43206
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Re: Starship is Go...
It appears to be time to update the topic with launch plans ... Today is the 23rd of September ...
when is next starship flight scheduled
AI Overview
The next SpaceX Starship flight (Flight 14) is scheduled for September 28, 2026, with a launch window opening at 8:15 a.m. ET (7:15 a.m. CT) from Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas.
SpaceX +2Mission Overview
Mission: Starship Flight 14
Launch Date: September 28, 2026
Launch Time: 8:15 a.m. – 9:30 a.m. ET
Launch Site: Pad 2, Starbase, Texas
Main Objective: This test flight will mark Starship's first-ever orbital flight attempt and is set to carry 26 upgraded Starlink V3 satellites.
SpaceX +3
(th)
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#2384 2026-09-25 09:19:08
- GW Johnson
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Re: Starship is Go...
As near as I can tell, this is version 3 ship 41 stacked atop version 3 booster 21, for flight 14. They successfully did some sort of wet dress rehearsal yesterday. And, as near as I can tell, the launch attempt is still scheduled for 9-28. It was 9-22, but got pushed back.
Remember, this is another experimental flight test! This vehicle is still quite deep in the experimental flight test process, and farther still from ever being deemed safe enough to risk flying a crew.
As for the "payload growth" argument in the postings above, NO vehicle EVER carried its full payload while it was still deep in experimental flight test! That comes later in the process of development. And it continues throughout the service life of the vehicle design. Which makes that argument above rather pointless, in my own opinion.
GW
GW Johnson
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"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew, especially one dead from a bad management decision"
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#2385 2026-09-26 06:26:34
- tahanson43206
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Re: Starship is Go...
As of Saturday morning, launch remains set for Monday morning:
Per Google:
Starship Flight 14 is scheduled to launch on Monday, September 28, 2026, pending regulatory approval.
Launch Details
Date: Monday, September 28, 2026
Launch Window: Opens at 7:15 a.m. CT (75-minute duration)
Location: Pad 2, Starbase, Texas
Mission Goal: First orbital flight test for Starship and first deployment of operational payload (26 Starlink V3 satellites)
(th)
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#2386 2026-09-27 11:39:17
- Void
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Re: Starship is Go...
Well, we can see how real this is: https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/r … f98501fda6 Quote:
SpaceX BLOWS UP The Entire Space Industry With Latest Announcement!
Ending
Last edited by Void (2026-09-27 11:40:07)
Be careful what you wish for.
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#2387 2026-09-28 06:06:14
- tahanson43206
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Re: Starship is Go...
Countdown is 4 minutes as this post opens...
That's interesting ... The countdown went to "starting soon" and the page said it is down
I found a YouTube channel that shows propellant load in progress...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gDxG-pm1Zo
OK! SpaceX is back online showing launch in 30 minutes or so...
The text on the t-shirts worn by the two SpaceX presenters reads "making life multiplanetary"
The ** real ** countdown is 14 minutes and frost is visible on the vehicle at several locations.
The Moon is just past full, and it showed up nicely in the flight video.
At 30 minutes into the first orbit for Starship, we are midway across the Atlantic between South America and Africal.
The view is pretty amazing!
At 31 minutes the altitude and velocity seem to have stabilized ..26369 km/s and altitude 277 km.
At 45 minutes the Starship crossed Madagascar and headed out over the Southern Indian Ocean.
At 48 minutes sunset is near
Over the Indian Ocean, Starship crossed over some bright lights that were in a row. I asked Google and learned those are fishing fleets.
AI Overview No, those are not islands. What you are seeing from orbit are commercial fishing boats, specifically massive fleets targeting squid or fish.These vessels are utilizing incredibly bright, high-intensity LED array lights (often emitting a distinct green or white glow) to attract plankton and marine life to the surface, bringing schools of fish and squid right to their nets.From the vantage point of an orbital spacecraft like Starship or the International Space Station, these fleets frequently arrange themselves in long, regularly spaced grids or lines to maximize their catch area without drifting into one another's nets. The Indian Ocean—particularly the Arabian Sea and the waters stretching toward Southeast Asia—is home to some of the largest unmonitored "dark fishing fleets" on Earth, which emit a collective glow so intense it can rival the city lights of major metropolitan areas.
57 minutes into the first orbit for Starship and it is still deploying satellites.
Over an hour in ... I'm wondering if SpaceX will broadcast the entire 10 orbits! Perhaps they will continue broadcasting until all 26 satellites are deployed. The ship is over the Pacific at 1 hour and 17 minutes in.
At 1:29 into the flight, sunrise is on it's way.
(th)
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#2388 2026-09-28 08:58:45
- GW Johnson
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Re: Starship is Go...
Did not see it live, watched a replay from AP news site.
Launch on time. Booster lost 1 engine during ascent. Hot stage looked pretty nominal. 31/33 then 5 for boostback. 13/15 then 5 then 3 for soft B landing. Ship lost 1 vac late in ascent. Orbit burn OK. 26 Starlinks deployed and operating. Mission shortened, not 10 orbits, for Pacific landing.
Deorbit burn coming up (watching live SpaceX feed). Will edit posting.
Deorbit burn successful. Will edit after reentry.
Reentry looked good. Landing burn went good. Soft landing, fell over and blew up. Not quite 2 full orbits with landing right at 3 hours from launch.
Everything except 3 engine losses looked very good.
GW
Last edited by GW Johnson (2026-09-28 10:03:22)
GW Johnson
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"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew, especially one dead from a bad management decision"
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#2389 2026-09-28 09:08:02
- NewMarsMember
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Re: Starship is Go...
The Starship first orbital flight is still in progress at 11:06 EST ... There is plenty of time to tune in and watch the landing in about 30 minutes. I wonder if the landing will be near enough to the US coast so a tow makes sense, if the Starship survives the tipover.
2.7 km up at 381 km /s ... in clouds ... Ignition...
Starship in the water !!! Quite an explosion at the end but the ship seems to be floating.
The landing may have been near Hawaii... 18 years to the day since Falcon 1 reached orbit?
(th)
Recruiting High Value members for NewMars.com/forums, in association with the Mars Society
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#2390 2026-09-28 10:12:59
- tahanson43206
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Re: Starship is Go...
The announcer said that today's flight was 18 years to the day from the first Falcon 1 orbital flight.
I asked Google to check:
AI Overview Yes, the first successful orbital flight of the Falcon 1 on September 28, 2008 was exactly 18 years to the day before SpaceX's first successful Starship orbital flight on September 28, 2026.
Key Milestones
Falcon 1 Flight 4: Launched and reached Earth orbit on September 28, 2008, marking SpaceX's first successful orbital launch.StarshipFlight 14: Achieved its first successful trip into Earth orbit on September 28, 2026, exactly 18 years later.
If you'd like, I can provide more details on:How the Falcon 1 success saved SpaceX from bankruptcy
The mission profile and goals of the recent Starship orbital test
San Mateo Daily Journal
SpaceX's supersized Starship launches into orbit for the first ...Sep 28, 2026 — SpaceX has launched its enormous Starship into orbit for the first time. By MARCIA DUNN - AP Aerospace Writer;
Sep 28, 2026; 28 mi...Moneycontrol.com
Before Starship, SpaceX nearly ran out of money: How Falcon ...
Before Starship, SpaceX nearly ran out of money:
How Falcon 1 saved Elon Musk's space dream
Before Starship, SpaceX faced three fa...Show all
Here is a follow up about the landing North of Hawaii...
AI Overview During its first orbital test flight on September 28, 2026, the SpaceX Starship Flight 14 upper-stage spacecraft was directed to make an early splashdown in the Pacific Ocean, north of Hawaii, after mission managers cut the test short.
Mission Details
Launch Site: Starbase in Boca Chica, Texas.
Destination/Landing Zone: The Pacific Ocean, roughly three hours after launch, located north of the Hawaiian islands.
Reason for Early Landing: Mission controllers opted for an early end to the planned 10-hour, multi-orbit flight profile after the upper-stage spacecraft experienced the loss of one of its six engines during ascent.
Milestone Achieved: Despite the shortened duration, the flight marked SpaceX's first successful attempt to reach orbital velocity and place Starship into Earth orbit.
(th)
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#2391 2026-09-28 19:19:12
- RobertDyck
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Re: Starship is Go...
Good thing Starship deployed. Starship is going to have to earn revenue soon. So far it's paid by SpaceX investors. They got money from NASA for the Lunar lander, but no serious progress on that. And some profits from Falcon launches. But Starship is mostly funded by investors. StarLink gets its money from subscribers; more subscribers means more money. But more subscribers also means more traffic. StarLink is already slowing down due to traffic congestion. So they need more satellites. Starship just deployed so many satellites it's equivalent to several launches of Falcon 9. Subscribers revenue from StarLink will help.
One mission for Starship is Earth-to-Earth. If they want to carry passengers, they have to stop blowing up. Yes yes, I know. Product development. But Elon Musk announced his Interplanetary Transport System at the 67th International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico, on September 27, 2016. It's now 10 years. How many Starships have blown up? On paper Starship sounds good. And it is slowly making progress.
Saturn rockets were studied 1960-1962. Saturn C-5 was selected on January 25, 1962. First all-up unmanned test launch was Apollo 4, November 9, 1967. First crewed flight was Apollo 8, December 21, 1968. From selection to first manned flight 6 years and 11 months. If you include the early studies, then 8 years. First paper study of Saturn A-1 started 1959, but you can't count that because that was so much smaller than Saturn V it's like comparing Falcon 9 to Starship.
So yes, I do expect Starship to launch, deploy payload, and catch both stages without blowing up. Hear me Elon? Next launch! Double catch!
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#2392 2026-09-28 19:50:59
Re: Starship is Go...
Well, we can see how real this is: https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/r … f98501fda6 Quote:
SpaceX BLOWS UP The Entire Space Industry With Latest Announcement!
Ending
What’s the TL:DR version?
Bob Clark
Old Space rule of acquisition (with a nod to Star Trek - the Next Generation):
“Anything worth doing is worth doing for a billion dollars.”
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#2393 2026-09-28 19:53:04
Re: Starship is Go...
Now that Starship is presumably operational it will have to give what its payload capability is as fully reusable.
Bob Clark
Old Space rule of acquisition (with a nod to Star Trek - the Next Generation):
“Anything worth doing is worth doing for a billion dollars.”
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#2394 2026-09-29 00:38:55
- RobertDyck
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Re: Starship is Go...
Bob Clark, I listened to the video. AI voice. Video claimed SpaceX gave a presentation on September 15 of this year, showing slides with fixed prices to launch payloads with Starship. Price guaranteed until end of 2036. I tried to find that, and could not. Appears to be fiction. SpaceX website says send an email to sales. The video also claims both stages on flight 22 were caught, and 9 days later reflown. Both in September 2026. Target for 2028 was a 24-hour turnaround. More fiction: today's launch was flight 14. Flight 22 hasn't happened yet. Video went on to claim on-orbit propellant transfer because operational in 2027. I got to minute 4 of a 36 minute video. Going to bed, haven't listened to the rest. Should I bother?
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#2395 2026-09-29 14:20:13
Re: Starship is Go...
Once again an “elephant in the room” is being ignored: nobody asks or answers the question of how much will the Starship V3 carry to orbit.
Bob Clark
Last edited by RGClark (2026-09-29 19:03:05)
Old Space rule of acquisition (with a nod to Star Trek - the Next Generation):
“Anything worth doing is worth doing for a billion dollars.”
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#2396 2026-09-30 08:31:36
- GW Johnson
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Re: Starship is Go...
For the umpteenth time, Starship/Superheavy is NOT operational! It is NOWHERE NEAR operational! It is still quite deep in experimental flight test, trying to find and root out the bugs that threaten to destroy each and every flight!
And yes, those bugs do indeed threaten to destroy each and every flight! I meant EXACTLY what I said! (And I actually had the real work experiences with experimental flight tests in jet aircraft and rocket/ramjet missiles to back up those claims.)
One of those bugs is still an unacceptable failure rate of Raptor-3 engines. Something they did going from Raptor-2 to Raptor-3 reduced its flight reliability, and it is quite evident that NO ONE at SpaceX yet knows what that fault is!
I heard the SpaceX announcer say that the Superheavy could not lose more than 3 engines and still perform its ascent task to staging. The implication of that is also quite severe: if those 3 failed engines are all among the center 3 or the middle 13, it will not be recoverable and must crash in the sea. We saw a strong hint of that in flights 12 and 13, and even in flight 14. (Note that before flight 12, they were still using Raptor-2, and had better results landing the booster.)
Another risk from engine unreliability: what we saw with flight 13 is that the Starship upper stage can lose but 1 of its 6 engines and still make its main ascent burn. But with flight 14, we saw that circularization into orbit requires relight confidence in the sea level engines! Lose 1 of those, and the smart choice is "no-go, abort". PERIOD!
And in an operational bird, so far, such an abort is a crash in the Indian Ocean, from Texas (or Louisiana). More infrastructure on the ground is required before a crewed abort can have a chance of survival, and that's a fact, Jack! If Starship is ever to be crewed AT ALL(!!!), that issue will have to be addressed! So far I have seen NOTHING go toward it!
And (rightly or wrongly) NASA flies crews under riskier circumstances than any commercial outfit will ever countenance! Consider that!
As for Bob's "elephant in the room", go look at Spacex's website! The claim there is 100+ tons. That number as posted will change as the experimental test flights finish rooting out the bugs! But it is inherently fiction until the experimental test flights are actually done!
Once all the bugs are found and eliminated, ONLY THEN (!!!) is it appropriate to experimentally verify payload capacity! No aircraft or spacecraft EVER carried full payload while still deep in experimental flight test, still rooting out bugs! That would be an egregiously-stupid thing to attempt! You start doing that ONLY at the very end of experimental flight test, after all the other bugs have been corrected!
The most fatal bug identified so far, and evidently still not fixed, is Raptor-3 unreliability. Which just points out the irresolvable inherent differences between the ground test environment (where it is reliable) and the flight environment (where it is so very clearly not yet reliable enough). That's WHY you do experimental flight test in the first place!
That does NOT mean that there are no other bugs! It just means no one knows what they are, yet. And they are there, trust me! It is ALWAYS SO, in experimental flight test!
GW
Last edited by GW Johnson (2026-09-30 08:58:09)
GW Johnson
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"There is nothing as expensive as a dead crew, especially one dead from a bad management decision"
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#2397 2026-09-30 23:05:07
Re: Starship is Go...
Question: how much payload can Starship V3 get to orbit?
Answer: don’t ask, don’t tell.
Bob Clark
Old Space rule of acquisition (with a nod to Star Trek - the Next Generation):
“Anything worth doing is worth doing for a billion dollars.”
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#2398 2026-10-01 06:21:55
- tahanson43206
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Re: Starship is Go...
For RGClark re Post #2397
I think that is a reasonable question.
The answer appears to known:
Per Google Search:
AI Overview
SpaceX has not officially published the exact final mass, but third-party reporting estimates the payload of 26 Starlink V3 satellites on Starship (Flight 14) to be around 52 tons (~2 tons per satellite).Payload Details
• Number of satellites: 26
• Satellite type: Starlink V3
• Estimated mass per satellite: ~2.0 tons
• Total estimated payload mass: ~52 tons
In my opinion, the question of how much mass can be lifted to orbit is much less important than the cost per kilogram.
Long ago Elon set a goal of reducing the cost to that of the propellant needed to reach orbit.
That propellant includes what is needed to lift the entire starship. In this case, it may be possible to discover the total mass of propellant loaded into Starship and Super heavy before launch. The cost of that propellant, divided by 52 tons, will tell you the cost of the shipment when both components are recovered.
Whatever that cost is today, it will go down as the mass delivered to orbit increases, everything else holding steady.
I hope we might have a NewMars member who can do a little research and publish the estimated cost per ton (or kilogram)
***
My understaning is that the payload of this flight paid for part of the cost of the flight.
It seems to me the far more important number than mass delivered in a single flight is the cost of delivery of that mass to orbit.
(th)
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#2399 2026-10-01 06:38:49
- tahanson43206
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Re: Starship is Go...
Google Search came up with an estimated cost of the propellant loaded into Flight 41:
If we take the higher figure, and divide that by 52 tons of payload delivered to orbit as working equipment, the cost per ton would be:
>> 1300000/52 >> 25,000 per ton or $25 per kilogram
it seems to me that mass per flight is irrelevant at these prices.
If SpaceX achieves $500,000 for a load, then the results are: $9615.38 per ton or $9.6+ per kilogram.
These are results for Please estimate the total cost of propellant loading into Flight 41 of Starship
AI OverviewThe estimated total cost of propellant loading for a full SpaceX Starship stack (including both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship vehicle) ranges between $500,000 and $1,300,000 per launch.
+1
Cost Breakdown Analysis
The exact cost depends heavily on commodity spot prices, transport methods, and whether SpaceX produces the gases locally or purchases them from a vendor. The primary components of the propellant load include:
+1
Propellant Mass: A fully stacked Starship holds roughly 4,500 to 4,800 metric tons (approx. 10 to 12 million pounds) of liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid methane (LCH4).
+2
Liquid Oxygen (LOX): Accounting for roughly 78% of the total mass (~3,500 to 3,700 tons), bulk industrial oxygen costs roughly $100 to $200 per ton, totaling around $350,000 to $740,000.Liquid Methane (LCH4): Making up the remaining 22% of the mass (~1,000 tons), purified liquid methane generally ranges from $300 to $500 per ton, totaling around $300,000 to $500,000.
Once full reusability and local infrastructure (such as air separation plants and gas pipelines) are optimized, SpaceX aims to drive the absolute floor of these propellant costs down to the lower bound of $500,000 per flight.
Can SpaceX achieve break even with Starship with 52 tons per flight? It appears to me highly likely it can.
(th)
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#2400 2026-10-01 14:11:06
Re: Starship is Go...
For RGClark re Post #2397
I think that is a reasonable question.
The answer appears to known:
Per Google Search:
AI Overview
SpaceX has not officially published the exact final mass, but third-party reporting estimates the payload of 26 Starlink V3 satellites on Starship (Flight 14) to be around 52 tons (~2 tons per satellite).Payload Details
• Number of satellites: 26
• Satellite type: Starlink V3
• Estimated mass per satellite: ~2.0 tons
• Total estimated payload mass: ~52 tons***
(th)
Scotty said, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
But what if they fool you three times? You get taken behind the woodshed by moms and pops for a whuppin’?
In fairness to SpaceX we only know that’s the payload to orbit on this flight. We don’t know if that’s the max payload for V3.
Bob Clark
Old Space rule of acquisition (with a nod to Star Trek - the Next Generation):
“Anything worth doing is worth doing for a billion dollars.”
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