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#351 2026-02-21 19:18:27
- RobertDyck
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- From: Winnipeg, Canada
- Registered: 2002-08-20
- Posts: 8,394
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Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:
Budgets: This thread is about Peter Zeihan. He has said China's navy is short range, not able to operate in deep water or far from Chinese shores. If a conflict with China breaks out, position 2 or 3 destroyers near Singapore and blockade shipping to China. That's it. Cut off oil imports to China. Cut off food imports. Cut off agricultural inputs (fertilizer, etc). Chinese civilization will be over in 2 years.
Peter Zeihan: World Order Falling Apart: Trump, Global Chaos & the End Of Chinese Empire
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#352 2026-02-21 19:26:03
- RobertDyck
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- From: Winnipeg, Canada
- Registered: 2002-08-20
- Posts: 8,394
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Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:
If you're still worried about Purchasing Power Parity, here's a comparison of navy ships: (from Wikipedia)
Russian navy:
13 Ballistic missile submarines
12 Cruise missile submarines
13 Nuclear-powered attack submarines
19 Diesel/electric-powered attack submarines
9 Special-purpose submarines
1 Aircraft carrier (in commission, but not operational)
2 Battlecruisers
2 Cruisers
9 Destroyers
12 Frigates
c. 79 Corvettes
17 Landing ships
50+ Landing craft
5 Patrol ships
c. 60+ Patrol boats (significant numbers of additional offshore patrol vessels/light patrol boats are operated by the Russian Coast Guard, Federal Protective Service, Russian National Guard and other agencies)
43+ Mine countermeasures vessels
18 Special-purpose (intelligence) ships
Numerous other auxiliaries
United States Navy:
Commissioned (USS) – 233
Aircraft carrier – 11
Amphibious assault ship – 9
Amphibious command ship – 2
Amphibious transport dock – 13
Attack submarine – 48
Ballistic missile submarine – 14
Classic frigate – 1
Cruiser – 7 (of 20)
Destroyer – 76
Dock landing ship – 10 (of 12)
Expeditionary mobile base – 4
Guided missile submarine – 4
Littoral Combat Ship – 1
Littoral combat ship – 26 (of 31)
Mine countermeasures ship – 4
Submarine tender – 2
Technical research ship – 1
Non-commissioned (USNS) – 85
Cable ship – 1
Dry cargo ship – 14
Expeditionary fast transport – 12
Expeditionary transfer dock – 2
Fast combat support ship – 2
Fleet ocean tug – 1
High speed transport – 2
Hospital ship – 2
Instrumentation ship – 1 (of 2)
Maritime prepositioning ship – 4
Ocean surveillance ship – 5
Offshore supply vessel – 1
Replenishment oiler – 17
S.A.S.W.S Vessel A – 4
Salvage ship – 2 (of 4)
Survey ship – 7
Vehicle cargo ship – 8 (of 57)
Support (MV, RV – or no prefix) – 66
Barracks ship – 21
Container ship – 5
Dry dock – 2
Fast sea frame – 1
Fuel tanker – 5
Harbor tug – 12
Large harbor tug – 5
Oceanographic research ship – 6
S.A.S.W.S Vessel A – 4
Sea-based X-band Radar – 1
Self Defense Test Ship – 1
Torpedo trials craft – 2
Unclassified miscellaneous – 1
Ready Reserve Force ships (MV, SS, GTS) – 55
Aviation logistics support ship – 2
Crane ship – 4
Vehicle cargo ship – 49 (of 57)
Reserve Fleet ships (USS, USNS) – 26
Cruiser – 13 (of 20)
Dock landing ship – 2 (of 12)
Dry dock – 1
Expeditionary fast transport – 2
Instrumentation ship – 1 (of 2)
Littoral combat ship – 5 (of 31)
Salvage ship – 2 (of 4)
Under construction – 48
Aircraft carrier – 3
Amphibious assault ship – 2
Amphibious transport dock – 2
Attack submarine – 11
Ballistic missile submarine – 1
Destroyer – 11
Expeditionary fast transport – 2
Expeditionary mobile base – 2
Frigate – 1
Littoral combat ship – 1
Replenishment oiler – 5
Survey ship – 1
Towing, salvage and rescue ship – 6
On order – 49
Aircraft carrier – 2
Amphibious assault ship – 1
Amphibious transport dock – 2
Attack submarine – 9
Ballistic missile submarine – 2
Barracks ship – 2
Destroyer – 15
Expeditionary fast transport – 1
Expeditionary medical ship – 3
Frigate – 1
Medium landing ship – 1
Ocean surveillance ship – 2
Replenishment oiler – 4
Towing, salvage and rescue ship – 4
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#353 2026-02-21 20:50:17
- Void
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- Registered: 2011-12-29
- Posts: 9,315
Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:
America is much more aquatic than the Russians for good reasons. Are we a Duck or a Swan?
At least we are not a Goose. AKA Flying Carp.
It makes very little sense for the Russians to have a Navy, but they are in love with the idea it seems.
But they are quite the thing for Eurasian/Asian Land Wars.
I think it was always wrong to think that an industrial superpower was a danger in the near Russian area. Per Peter Zeihan, trans and trucks are just not the equal to water transportation, if you can have water transportation.
The British fetish to chase the Russians around and try to get us do so as well, is not suitable to our needs.
You need to consider that it is possible that the aristocrat greens now believe that they can survive a nuclear war between America and a major Asian power. In their infantile dreams they may think that 9/10ths of the human race can be killed off while the hide in their plush bunkers. Then they come out and rule the remnants.
We are not interested in that plan.
Ending Pending 
Is it possible that the root of political science claims is to produce white collar jobs for people who paid for an education and do not want a real job?
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#354 Yesterday 14:14:15
- kbd512
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- Registered: 2015-01-02
- Posts: 8,514
Re: Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers:
1st Fleet - 1947 to 1973 (Central Pacific Ocean; Disestablished at the end of the Viet Nam War)
2nd Fleet - Norfolk, VA (North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans)
3rd Fleet - San Diego, CA (Eastern Pacific Ocean)
4th Fleet - Mayport, FL (Central and South America)
5th Fleet - Manama, Bahrain (Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea)
6th Fleet - Naples, Italy (Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea)
7th Fleet - Yokosuka, Japan (Western Pacific and Indian Ocean)
10th Fleet - Fort Meade, MA (US Cyber Command and Space Operations)
Apart from 10th Fleet, which has no assigned warships to the best of my knowledge, all other commissioned US Navy warships are spread amongst the 6 numbered fleets. 4th Fleet doesn't require much in the way of ocean-going warships, so we could assert with some confidence that 5 fleets must be supplied with warships, support ships, naval aviation support, and logistics ashore.
At any given time, if we have 4 ships of a given class, then only 1 of those 4 ships is ready for immediate contingency use, which includes deployment to a war zone or as a floating staging area for natural disaster relief. Amongst the 76 Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers, only 19 of them are available for deployment at any given time. The US Navy says 15 to 20 Arleigh Burkes will be on deployment at any given time, which tracks quite well with my assertion that 4 ships are required to ensure 1 of the 4 is deployed.
AEGIS Combat System equipped Arleigh Burkes are our primary air defense ships for battle groups or task forces because all of our Ticonderoga class guided missile cruisers are retiring, they're the primary anti-submarine warfare ships because we have no frigates, and they're the primary surface strike platform as well. Simple math indicates that only 4 ships per numbered fleet are available for deployment or on deployment at any given time, covering an entire ocean or sea, and sometimes more than one large body of water. This means true combat power is quite limited, especially when these destroyers are tethered to a carrier or amphibious battle group they must defend. Their freedom to operate as independent warships in a destroyer squadron task force ordered to locate and eliminate enemy warships is essentially nonexistent.
We had 670 destroyers and destroyer escorts (frigates) by the end of WWII. Towards the end of the Cold War, we still had a 600 ship Navy. No matter how capable the Arleigh Burke class is, relative to the vastly cheaper and more plentiful Fletcher class destroyers of WWII, or the Perry class guided missile frigates primarily used for sub chasing, it can only ever be in one place at one time. If a modern destroyer is tethered to a carrier battle group, then it's not fulfilling the primary role of a destroyer, which is to find and destroy enemy warships.
We have no modern frigates, so no dedicated submarine hunting ships. We have precious few mine countermeasures ships, all of which are retiring within the next decade. If the Navy's desire is to keep their high capability guided missile destroyers close to a battle group for air defense, then we need to offload the destroyer escort / frigate duties to smaller dedicated sub chasers and mine neutralization ships.
If those Tesla humanoid robots become generally useful supplements for the semi-skilled labor performed by human sailors, then perhaps we can still have a 600 ship Navy without training and paying far greater numbers of sailors. If the robots are capable of assisting with feeding the crew, cleaning the ship, and making minor repairs to engines and weapons, then we don't need any brand new warship designs, merely larger numbers of existing guided missile destroyers, aircraft carriers, and amphibious ships.
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