An Englishman's Home Is His Redoubt (British Decline And Fall)

Terraformer · 2023-01-27 08:21:01

There are a few Brits on this forum, familiar with living in a failing country that struggles to maintain the infrastructure is has (forget about building more). Since there is a strong possibility this will not change any time soon, I figured it's worth discussing what can be done on a private level with what is already built. The rule in Britain seems to be that you're allowed to build anything as long as no-one can see it (hence why we've had a pretty good fibre optic rollout, and wind turbines have been allowed when they're out at sea instead of near anyone).

So, Britain 2040. Two decades of continued decline. Hosepipe bans are the norm during summer in most of the country. Rolling blackouts happen every time the wind dies down, though high prices have curtailed demand quite a lot. London house prices have been exported to the rest of the island. Burglaries are routine. Try not to fall ill in winter. There is an even greater sense of ennui. No-one expects anything to get better.

In this situation, what changes would you make to a house to maintain your personal home living standards? My first thoughts are insulation, heat recovery ventilation (try not to fall ill in winter), and a dedicater heat pump for underfloor heating (lower temp water -> higher CoP), perhaps with a large thermal store of some kind to enable heating when the power is cut. A large hot water tank, topped up whenever energy is cheapest, be that at night from the grid or during the day from solar energy. Batteries to power the pumps, fans, lights, and router. A wood stove for supplementary heat and cooking on if need be. All put together to enable a house to operate in island mode for a couple of days when the power goes out.

Permitted development maxxing. Unless you're in a conservation area, or own a listed building, or unfortunate enough to live where a council has imposed an Article 4 direction, there's a lot you do without begging the local crown for permission. Including, oddly, big big dormers (and yet, mansard roofs are not allowed in most places). One thing Americans do that Britons do not appear to do much is rent out ensuite bedrooms that have their own external entrance. AFAICT this is legal in Britain as long as there is no kitchen. We need to bring down rents somehow... it may even be politically possible to persuade Parliament that accessory dwellings should be encouraged, as they are in North America. If mansard roofs and ADUs were allowed by-right, they could legitimately claim to be doing something to help the housing crisis without having to allow any new housing estates to be built in anyone's constituency.

And, of course, security. Gates on alleyways are allowed. Strong glazing bars on windows to stop entry that way. Strong hinges and locks on doors? We're already one of the most surveilled societies, but maybe decent cameras would help deter theft? Idk. What do you guys think could be done to houses to make them resist British decline?

tahanson43206 · 2023-01-27 08:46:56

For Terraformer ....

It is a privilege (for me for sure) to give your new topic a boost over the dread "first reply" dead zone!

Britain (and the UK generally) have an advantage over most other cultures on Earth.... a well contained leadership institution.

The monarchy is (I understand) on the order of 1000 years old, and the current King is well constrained by adjustments made over the centuries.

A role that remains (if King Charles were to rise to the occasion) is leadership in morale and spirit of the population.

The depressing sounding state-of-mind you've described can be addressed by the ideas of Calliban.

While I expect to be debating the relative impact of energy (Calliban's favorite) vs inventiveness (Adam Smith's favorite) one thing is clear .. (at least to me)...

Britain has the potential to vastly expand both, if King Charles can bestir himself to inspire his countrymen.

In the geothermal topic, I just dropped off a YouTube video link showing the manifestation of your idea of lots of shallow geothermal wells.

The potential to draw geothermal energy by the megawatt is there in the UK because ample heated regions of the mantle are closer to the surface than elsewhere. Calliban appears to be worried about borrowing money. However, there is no need to borrow money, when volunteer efforts are available. And volunteer efforts have ** always ** be available in the UK regions. The great armies of the past were raised by inspiring words, not by trickles of coin.

There is no reason that I can see why the regions bound by the concept of the UK cannot take a leading position in settling Mars, and simultaneously vastly increasing the quantity of non-fossil energy available, and thus increasing one of the main inputs to wealth for the population.

Regarding burglary ... That is not a theoretical concern for me .... I have experienced it, and had the satisfaction of seeing the playout of the judicial process, so the perpetrator was given a six month sentence. The person who carried out the activity lacked purpose in life, and the opportunity to develop his positive capabilities, and (I gather) he lacked the strength of character to resist temptation to use drugs.

Leadership at the top level of a population can wreak havoc on the world and on the population, as Putin is doing now, or can achieve massive positive changes as some of your famous leaders have done on multiple occasions.

You can do your part, by writing King Charles to (at least attempt to) inspire HIM to take on such a leadership role.

(th)

Terraformer · 2023-01-27 10:14:29

th,

The monarch's power is very circumscribed, and the party that is likely to be in government after next year isn't as friendly to the monarchy as the Tories are. They would take a very dim view of Charles III taking an (obvious) active role. Especially one that reflects badly on the government. William might be able to garner more support.

Regardless, this thread is not about what Britain working as one can do to arrest its decline and put itself on a solid footing. That conversation has been had to death as much progress as Britain has made towards new reservoirs (none). I'm interested in what we do if there isn't some renaissence that makes everyone accept the need to build, and perhaps what might be *politically* possible -- you can talk about new towns here, or zoning there, or street votes wherever, but unless it's something that won't make certain voters angry it's not getting done. I do not know if Labour will improve things; given they aren't reliant on voters in the shires, they may well have more flexibility here. Either way, permitted development rights were majorly extended two years ago -- you no longer need planning permission to add a floor or two to your house, if it was built 1948-2018 --so that may be a route that is feasible to get government to take.

kbd512 · 2023-01-27 10:55:29

Terraformer,

In the not-so-distant past, whether or not the British Empire was thought to be or actually in decline, ye olde home owner had a double-barreled shotgun or revolver at his or her disposal, in order to remove those "worst declining parts" of British society. Thus any decline, real or imagined, was made much more tolerable. Nobody was required to turn their property into a miniature prison to deal with the capricious dictates of their elected or unelected officials. Even though you were a subject of the British Crown, it was assumed you were a loyal subject until proven otherwise. That assumption was correct in nearly all cases. If not, then it was off with your head. That is the only EFFECTIVE thing to be done to deter thieves / rapists / murderers from breaking into peoples' homes. As the number of live criminals dwindles, you can come out of your self-imposed prisons to enjoy the light of day. You can also enjoy long walks on the beach, even at night.

Calliban · 2023-01-27 11:52:28

Terraformer's question concerns what can be done at the household level to improve the prospects of people living there as the country around them deteriorates. People need food, water, heat (space, hot water, cooking) and security. As society deteriorates, the last on the list becomes progressively more important. But the question is what can be done at household level to meet each of these needs. I will give it some thought.

Terraformer · 2023-01-27 12:05:24

Yes. And also at a neighbourhood level, which reducing crime against the individual households should help with according to broken windows theory. In most of England I don't really expect there to be a massive jump in *violent* crime (most of the country isn't really policed anyway and gets by alrightish), it's the minor crimes that I think will be more troublesome. The less damage they can do the easier it is to repair and keep things in order.

But also, my main points weren't about crime, but infrastructure. How to create households that can handle interruptions to utilities, ideally *without* resorting to expensive guzzelleen generators. Ones that can take advantage of the likely fluctuations in energy prices that come from having wind turbines be one of the few generation methods allowed.

tahanson43206 · 2023-01-27 12:18:54

For Terraformer ....

You've tipped the scales in your topic.

The only posts compatible with the topic would appear (as I see things) to be those that accept the premise of despair, dismay, defeatism and (add more).

Please consider creating a topic with an optimistic tone.

The fact that Calliban is planning to help ** this ** topic means it will be most definitely worth reading as it develops.

Perhaps others will come along to contribute to the apocalyptic tone you've set.

(th)

Terraformer · 2023-01-27 12:25:23

th,

No.

Terraformer · 2023-01-27 12:30:22

Defeatism is when you give up. Acknowledging a possible/probable reality isn't defeatism. Making plans on a spaceship for what to do if a solar flare is coming towards you is common sense, not defeatism.

As I said, what Britain could do to turn its position around has been done to death. I'm not interested in talking about that any further, I'm only interested if it's actually done. Meanwhile I live in this country whether or not it is turned around, and many people I care about *have* to live in this country.

My mindset isn't far off Johnny Sanphillippo's. Institutional inertia makes it difficult to change the direction, but it can be worked around. I'm interested in the work arounds.

kbd512 · 2023-01-27 12:39:03

Terraformer,

How about "victory gardens"?

tahanson43206 · 2023-01-27 18:43:33

For Terraformer re 9

"done to death"

Defeated!

Giving up.

Exhausted!

England in 2023.

Hopeless!

(th)

Void · 2023-01-27 19:34:08

I wish the best for your Nation(s). And for your path to happiness.

Done.

Calliban · 2023-01-27 19:35:54

On the topic of food. If you have a garden, drive or backyard, then you have the ability to grow at least some of your food. Even a concrete yard can yield some food if potatos are grown in barrels. If you have limited space, then potatos give the best yield of calories per unit area of just about anything you can grow. On a community level, grassy verges and public land could be used to grow vegetables if a citizens group were to negotiate with the local council. The problem with this idea is that anything grown would be subject to theft. Fruit or nut bearing trees could be planted now on public land in anticipation of hard times a decade from now. Anything you can grow on your own or on public land, will help protect you and your family from food shortages. Learn to cook. The more versatile your cooking skills are, the better you are able to survive if food becomes sparse. Stockpile herbs and spices. These can make even basic foods more palatable.

If you have a wood burning stove, then you have a heat source that could be used for cooking food if the power or gas goes down. A camping stove fueled by meths, propane or wood, provides a similar backup. At a push, you can even cook over candles. I have done that before.

Another food source is foraging. If you live in a rural or semi-rural environment, there are a surprisingly large number of natural food sources. Most people are unaware of them.

TH, on the the subject of preparedness. Given what we have seen so far, we may hope for the best, but should plan for the worst. Conditions in Britain are deteriorating rapidly. It is possible that decline will be arrested and prepping is ultimately unneccesary. But given the trajectory so far and given that our lives are at stake, it is sensible to make contingency plans.

SpaceNut · 2023-01-27 20:11:04

Of course, is a flat nation tax of 30% was to occur the people of the US will also learn gardening so that the money they do have is not going into taxation.

Much like the thermal energy topic is exploring it's a means to rise oneself out from under despair to create a positive outcome.

Security on an island has more to do with those that are sworn in to protect that are not doing what they are paid to do.

tahanson43206 · 2023-01-27 20:33:37

For SpaceNut re #14

This topic is about England.

Your post is about the US.

For Calliban ... Dr. Lewis Dartnell wrote a book about how to deal with a cataclysm should one occur. Terraformer persuaded Dr. Dartnell to grant admission to the Knowledge forum after he had closed off admissions due to spammers. I'm still amazed.

If you are interested in the subject of how to prepare for the worst case scenario, Dr. Dartnell's book would be worth adding to your bookshelf.

However, having read Dr. Dartnell's book carefully, I am more convinced than ever that it is far better to do everything possible to head off such a disaster. Folks living in dense urban settings are in for a tough stretch, if the civilization we've set into motion comes to a halt.

For Terraformer ....

Granted the wisdom of preparation for disaster, I'm ** still ** favorably impressed by Calliban's vision of nuclear fission plants able to create hydrocarbon fuels to meet all of Earth's needs, so I'd expect them to be able to comfortably meet the UK's needs.

In addition, the Earth has enough geothermal energy available to give everyone in the UK a level of energy more than sufficient to provide a comfortable living for everyone, even if a few live better, as is usually the case in human society.

What does ** not ** make sense (from my perspective) is to give up just because it is difficult to persuade groups of people to work together for any purpose, let alone something on the scale of providing energy for everyone.

In the past, leaders have appeared with the ability to use nothing but words to galvanize millions of people into productive activity.

I expect that leaders with the required ability are alive on Earth today.

(th)

SpaceNut · 2023-01-27 20:43:12

It's a fair comparison as the rich are avoiding paying their fair share.

https://www.gov.uk/income-tax

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxation_ … ed_Kingdom

Terraformer · 2023-01-28 03:58:09

Calliban,

Food wise I'm not too worried -- there are countries far more dysfunctional that ours that still get imports. The issue I expect (which we have already encountered...) are shortages here and there. Overall we get enough pasta and rice, but not necessarily at all times. The right response to this is a buffer. Maybe a month of two of storables. I would like to see more local small animal husbandry though. We could have a resilient supply of rabbit, and in not too long a time. I'd like to see this irrespective of collapse -- I want to be able to walk down and inspect the places I'm getting my meat from, so I don't have to take other's words for it that welfare standards are being met. Butter can be jarred, certain cheeses last quite a long time (I still have a dozen tubs of Italian Hard Cheese from the ALDI specialbuys, it's half as expensive as normally so I grab as much as I can), so you don't have to sit in the dark eating rice and beans.

th,

This *is* arresting collapse. You are counselling that we take an all or nothing approach, where if we can't shift the dominant governing paradigm we accept the country falling apart. The approach I want to take is to keep something going even if The Blob can't be moved. Figure out how we can keep the country going in spite of the best efforts of its ruling classes to destroy it. Historically, England didn't rely on central government to do things, it relied on the Church and corporations and civic societies. Looking to the state to save us is ahistorical and, as we've seen, not a very good strategy. I'm not holding out for a hero.

Basically, my goal is to ensure the country doesn't drop (too far) in quality of life, in a way that can be started unilaterally. Britain is not America. The only resource we have in particular abundance at this point is wind energy. We're not an island that can have suburban sprawl AND farmland AND wilderness. We import fuel even as we use far less than America. The closest comparison to us is the tea drinking constitutional monarchy island nation on the other side of the world island. There are things America has the luxury of doing because it has resources to burn. Copying America without these resources would lead (is leading?) Britain to ruin.

kbd512 · 2023-01-29 14:45:48

I know this is a revolutionary way of thinking, but I only know how to think like an American, so hear me out here.

What if you elected more thoughtful and compassionate leaders who were more intent on building-up the nation, rather than destroying it with whatever mix of incompetence and ideology has caused it to become whatever it is now that you so dislike?

I know that sounds like crazy talk, but I really do think it could work.

After seeing our own President Biden and Vice President Harris in action, I know what you're thinking, but you need to understand that Americans are suckers for a good deal. When we Americans heard that our Democrats were offering up two of their village idiots for their price of one, how could we say "no" to a deal like that? Corn Pop was a bad dude. What else can I say? "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men were, oh you know, the thing."

Calliban · 2024-10-15 07:17:51

This man explains why he is leaving the UK.
https://youtu.be/caJ6u4UsQN4?si=yo-QIjdcRUwPTZx4

The 1990s were a great time to be alive in Britain. Since then, living standards have collapsed. Taxes are high, inflation is rampant and public services are struggling. The only thing I would take issue with in his video is that he doesn't understand what First World means. That expression comes from the Cold War. First World refered to the capitalist OECD countries. Second World was the communist block. Third world is everyone else. It is an expression of economic system not affluence. Many people confuse it as such.

I realised recently that all the taxes I pay account for well over half of my income. I am certainly not rich. I am what would have been called middle class. I am a chartered engineer and earn a good wage (before tax). My wage probably puts me in the top 10% of earners. I have assets. And yet, I don't have much money left at the end of each month. The amount we are spending on food and energy swallows whatever the government doesn't take from me in tax. On paper, my wages have quadrupled since I started work 22 years ago. In real terms, my spending power has stood still. My wages are more heavily taxed, inflation reduces the value of what remains and it has to support five people. It is getting progressively more difficult to live a basic life in the UK.

Last edited by Calliban (2024-10-15 07:22:18)

Calliban · 2025-05-14 14:06:43

Nate Hagens interviews Alexis Zeigler, founder of Living Energy Farm.
https://youtu.be/vTIaxj8gRRc

This is a community of likeminded people who live on solar energy. Zeigler's approach is particularly interesting. Small amounts of electricity are stored in batteries for things like lighting. But most appliances run on DC power directly from the panels. There is no inverter or battery inbetween. Kris DeDecker has similarly written about direct solar power and estimates that only 10% of a typical offgrid system lifetime cost is the panels themselves. The inverter and batteries are 90% of total cost.

Living on direct solar means adjusting load to match supply at any particular time. This clearly isn't ideal, because sunlight levels vary across the day, between days and throughout the year. So using solar power in this way requires some rather deep behavioural adaptations. The use of low voltage DC does help. If too much load is switched on for the power supply, motors run more slowly and lights start to flicker. So there are obvious signs that allow consumption to be balanced to supply. Some energy activities can be postponed until sufficient energy is available.

Living like this isn't easy. But if we can learn to collectively adapt to intermittent supply, then an energy transition to intermittent renewables in possible. If not, we all need to bite the bullet and start building new nuclear reactors in a serious way.

Void · 2025-05-14 16:59:36

I listened to most of the video, until it cut out because I bumped my phone doing housework.

It is interesting. It is nice that their are people scheming these things. I wonder how Tony Seba's thinking would intersect it: https://ourworldindata.org/data-insight … ty-doubled Image Quote: w=1350

And if robotics reduces the cost of hardware, perhaps this decline rate in cost will increase.

It sounds like the people in the video run on lower expectations as part of making their methods work. They don't expect maximum convenience and comfort all the time.

However, if the cost of solar panels goes down enough then some system like theirs could have the 3x, 4x, or 5x amount of solar panels that the least energy providing week of the year still be good enough. For instance if you have 5x because you live in a very cloudy place, apparently people say that these solar panels can give power even on most cloudy days. So, that can lead to a different philosophy, because solar power can become more like clockwork. You would get some almost every day of the year.

So, using DC power would become attractive, especially if more devices for it were invented/created.

That then would leave you wondering what to do with the "Superpower" that would exist when better sunshine was available.

I think if hardware is expensive then you more likely want to run it around the clock, but if robotics makes hardware less expensive there may be more cases where you would not mind if it were idle 50% of the time.

Ending Pending

Last edited by Void (2025-05-14 17:11:22)

Calliban · Yesterday 14:57:27

Until about 2007, the majority of PV was still being made in developed countries. After that, Chinese PV production increased enormously and now completely dominates the global market. Chinese PV is very cheap, because it is made using otherwise stranded coal and forced labour. Anything is cheap when the labour and energy used to produce it are almost free. Anyone that wants to buy Chinese PV should do it soon. At the rate the Chinese economy is unwinding, it isn't clear how long they can keep PV module production going at the scale it is now being produced. PV module production depends on very long supply lines. The majority of polysilicon is made in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. Place with large and unexploited coal reserves and cheap labour.

Using PV to produce direct DC power without backup, is the only way of producing electric power from PV that is affordable and has positive EROI. Adding batteries and inverters massively increases cost and embodied energy. Adding backup power also destroys economics because the consumer must pay for a whole extra power station that sits idle for much of the time.

But using direct solar (daylight power) only really works in a small microgrid. For one thing, DC in the 180 volt range, cannot be transmitted long distances. Another problem is that load must be adjusted to match supply. That cannot easily be done in an extensive grid where customers are cut off without warning. But it can be done locally. If a household owns its own solar or wind DC power supply, the people living there can adjust load to match supply. It works much better if there is a discretionary load that can be rapidly switched off. Like resistance heaters in a hot water tank.

Last edited by Calliban (Yesterday 15:09:16)

Void · Yesterday 20:50:05

Granting the possibility that many types but not all types of hardware will go down in price, I see a way perhaps to utilize DC Superpower. This is a possibility not a certainty.

Starting with geothermal for heat pump, here is a drilling method: https://interestingengineering.com/ener … mal-energy

Supposing a world where solar panel prices continue dropping and perhaps batteries do as well. But the Solar may be the better part of a bargain than the batteries.

If you could drill a spilt geothermal where you run a heat pump and pull heat from one part of a thermal bed and deposit it into another. If you have a small battery pack, and charge it with DC, and set the heat pump to run for a small period when the battery is charged enough and to shut off when the battery is discharged.

If you have excess solar panels then this might allow extraction of value from "Superpower". On dim days, you might not get any runs, but on extremely sunny days you might even run continuous.

So, then ideas of how to connect that into external heat sources such as to cool a house or a hot day of summer, or a cold day of winter.

You might not have to even run the heat pump to extract stored hot or cold, just a circulation pump, and so that then needs its own power method.

Again, this is complexity and needs hardware that at this time would be rather expensive. But in a future world, where robot labor is less than $0.10/hour, perhaps some forms of hardware will have a reasonable price.

Ending Pending

Last edited by Void (Yesterday 21:02:49)

Void · Today 04:47:17

I hope you will not resent if I use this thought stream, to try to bring something peripheral to awareness, to attempt to drag it out to increased awareness.

The idea of "Split-Bed" geostorage/geothermal.

If we can make this arrangement we might mimic the Universe and turn dirt/regolith into machine parts. This might also not have to interfere to strongly with normal uses of soil or planetary surface.

The Universe, in the case of our solar system expands so that vibrations from our sun can flow outward. We can tap into this flow to make a smaller portion or reality run backwards, to store the energy of that flow for a finite time period.

This is not unlike an animal storing fat from the digestion of food, and Oxygen as a sink for Electrons. https://www.varsitytutors.com/ap_biolog … port-chain
Quote:

Oxygen is the final electron acceptor

I dimly understand what I am getting at, but by working with it perhaps greater awareness will come into consciousness.
By doing a split-bed thermal storage, we are also doing a split-bed, differential vibration storage. The hot bed resembles the sun, and the cold bed will resemble the deeps of the expanding universe.

A video I watched this morning indicated that Elon Musk is interested in making solar powered data centers, well away from the urban areas. So, the above scheme might run alongside of that.

For instance heat from the cooling of the data center could heat the hotbed or greenhouse, when convenient.

Superpower, used, could cool a section of ground so that moisture from the atmosphere could condense in the soil.
You could even take this to the point of permafrost, which is a phase change thermal storage factor. Another factor of permafrost, is that if rain falls or snow melts, the water is inhibited from draining into the deep ground.

Of course having permafrost below your crops, will have influence on the health of the roots of a crop.

But in this system the soil/ground becomes machine parts, while still being usable for things like growing plants.

Gardening can occur even on top of permafrost in Alaska: (Canada also I presume): https://www.uaf.edu/ces/publications/da … alaska.php

The soil thawed on top of the permafrost of course has to be of a sufficient thickness.

In any case presuming that robotics could make the drilling process economical and make the hardware items at prices well below the current pre-humanoid robot era that is about to become history.

Time and economics will make a future determination of virtue or not in this set of notions.

I think that the self-watering garden is interesting.

Ending Pending

Last edited by Void (Today 05:32:28)

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