Is Zubrin Working On Any New Books - Dr. Bob Zubrin-New Books

Dayton3 · 2002-06-04 19:39:42

I have Islands In The Sky, The Case For Mars, Entering Space, & First Landing by Dr. Zubrin. All are excellent.

Is Dr. Zubrin planning any more books and what might they be about?

I for one might like to see the following:

1) A Political Blueprint For Mars Direct

A guide to persuading governments and politicians into supporting a manned Mars Program based on Mars Direct

2) Marsbound-Mission Plans & Architectures

A lavishly illustrated book that looks at the various types of mission plans made over the last few decades for a manned Mars expedition and looks briefly at the merits and drawbacks of each.

Would look great. I'm still sure that Mars Direct would come out best.

Any other ideas?

Phobos · 2002-06-05 03:17:13

I would like to see Zubrin write a book that answers specific reasons why his critics find his plans unfeasible. I think Zubrin can get a little optimistic at times, but I think he's generally more correct than a lot of these critics who scoff at him. But some critics do have valid points that I would like Zubrin to answer.

clark · 2002-06-05 08:48:47

I would like to see Zubrin write a book that answers specific reasons why his critics find his plans unfeasible.

So would I. But you want something he does not have- answers.

The truth is that we are not as close to Mars as Zubrin would have you belive, and he knows it. Eventually, when the technology is ACTUALLY developed, improved, and PROVEN, then his timelines and his proposal might work.

Josh Cryer · 2002-06-05 10:22:35

I think his proposals could work, but only if you were able to convince some people to go on a suicide mission. But that doesn't seem all that difficult, as I would definitely go on Mars Direct if I had the opportunity.

What I want to know, is how Mars Direct, a scientific endeavor, actually leads to his visions of the frontier. And how humans could acquire more information than probes. I still don't quite understand where he's coming from.

C M Edwards · 2002-06-05 11:34:09

Hmm... Maybe some of us should write a book.

Josh could write about how a human being capable of travelling 10 miles is less capable than a robot capable of travelling 100ft, with an appendix about opening frontiers without scouts.

Clark could write about how technologies get proven before they're ever used.

And the rest of us could collaborate on a Leviticus of Zubrin worship.

Just kidding. Well, OK, I was kidding about everything except the Zubrin worship. All hail the great Zubrin.

Actually, I would like to see more books come out of the Mars Society. Books about the Mars Analog Stations, for one, as well as "How-To" books for tinkerers interested in the techniques and technologies of Mars exploration. But I don't expect Robert Zubrin to write them all. He's just one guy, and as much high regard as we hold him in, we can't expect him to fill our shelves for us.

That, IMHO, is the job of the Mars Society. They no doubt have thousands of budding authors just itching to get at the keyboards, lacking only a publishing house willing to print a treatise about Martian Greenhouses.

The Mars Society should sponsor and sell books.

CME

Josh Cryer · 2002-06-05 12:19:03

Josh could write about how a human being capable of travelling 10 miles is less capable than a robot capable of travelling 100ft, with an appendix about opening frontiers without scouts.

Yeah, hehehe! Humans need all this stuff to keep them breathing and robots do not, duh. Plus, I totally advocate AI building construction, they'd do the job much easier and more efficiently than fragile humans.

Just kidding. Well, OK, I was kidding about everything except the Zubrin worship. All hail the great Zubrin.

Tee hee! Well, I wasn't kidding. I mean, there are legitimate reasons to send probes, you know? I actually like Zubrin, I would love to meet him. But I think he really just wants to get to Mars (as do all of us), and he's trying his damndest to do it. Just to put it into perspective, I don't think Mars Direct is as suicidal as, say, the Apollo missions.

C M Edwards · 2002-06-05 14:27:36

Oh, well, if you mean the humans would actually have to GET there...

CME

Phobos · 2002-06-05 20:57:58

I would like to see Zubrin write a book that answers specific reasons why his critics find his plans unfeasible.
So would I. But you want something he does not have- answers.
The truth is that we are not as close to Mars as Zubrin would have you belive, and he knows it. Eventually, when the technology is ACTUALLY developed, improved, and PROVEN, then his timelines and his proposal might work.

Hey! Don't go raining on my little parade, I'm having a bad day and I just can't take anymore pessimism. So yes #### it, Zubrin is right on and I don't care what anybody says, so I think I'll start writing my chapter in the Holy Book of Zubrin worship, the one where Zubrin rains down fire on unbelievers to smite them for their lack of faith!

Shaun Barrett · 2002-06-06 06:11:24

I wish I could always be as sure of myself when criticising others as clark is!
Someone once told me: If you think you have everything under control, you obviously don't know what the h*** is going on!
I'm surprised that someone like Josh, who's had a relatively long association with New Mars and is presumably a member of The Mars Society, can tend more to the robotic probe side of the argument. Not that there's anything wrong with that viewpoint but I thought the whole thrust of TMS was humans to Mars as soon as possible. Maybe you're in the wrong society, Josh? (Or am I? )
But you're quite right in my opinion when you suggest that Apollo was more "suicidal" than Mars Direct. Those Apollo astronauts were among the bravest men who ever lived. There were no fully equipped, provisioned, and fuelled ERVs waiting for them on the Moon. No fully functional nuclear reactors to supply endless power to spacious and comfortable habitat modules. Some of those pioneers spent 3 days in their lunar module, something about the size of a toilet cubicle, with walls so thin you could put your foot through them without much trouble at all. If their ascent stage engine didn't light ... that was the end of the party!
At the beginning of the Mercury program, there were a million unanswered questions. For all that was known at the time, they might have been unanswerable!! 8 years later, Apollo 11 touched down on the Moon.
Of course Dr. Zubrin doesn't have all the answers! But he has a h*** of a lot more of them than anyone had in 1961!!!
clark seems to think that because Bob Zubrin hasn't filled in every detail of the Mars Direct mission structure, that he doesn't know how. Or worse, that nobody knows how and Mars is "... not as close ... as Zubrin would have you believe ...".
Maybe you're right, clark. But I for one don't believe in what you say. I believe we're capable of going to Mars within 15 years of a political committment and I think a great many people feel the same way. Unanswered questions didn't stop the Moon program and there's no way they'd stop us getting to Mars today.
We of all people, as Mars Society members, need to pull together ... not pull the rug out from under each other! We're supposed to be persuading the rest of the world to go to Mars and we'll never do it by undermining our founder and leader.
Let's get with the program, guys!!!

C M Edwards · 2002-06-06 07:47:04

OK, I know I?m not as invested in the discussion of probes vs. people as I should be, or I?d be making my wise*ss cracks in the appropriate forum, but it?s time to get serious. OK? I?m not here to come down on the side of those who think robotic probes are unnecessary any more than I agree with those who think that people are. Robotic probes, for all their failings, are utterly devoid of the single greatest failing of human beings. If a robotic probe screws up, nobody dies. (I almost died when we lost a probe because the programmers couldn?t convert from English to Metric, but it?s not the same thing.) We should use robotic probes before a Mars mission, during a Mars mission, and forever after during the entire history of Martian civilization. We must also send people to get the job done right, and I tire of all the either/or debates.

Power to the People! Energy to the Probes!

But I ask you, who is going to publish a good book on this debate? Or a ?Great Book of Zubrin?, for that matter? (Hey, don?t knock it. I understand that ?Bimbos of the Death Sun? did quite well.)

Has there been anything occurring at New Mars that needs writing about? I see all sorts of good ideas come through here.

Hmm?

CME

Phobos · 2002-06-06 19:33:44

But you're quite right in my opinion when you suggest that Apollo was more "suicidal" than Mars Direct. Those Apollo astronauts were among the bravest men who ever lived. There were no fully equipped, provisioned, and fuelled ERVs waiting for them on the Moon. No fully functional nuclear reactors to supply endless power to spacious and comfortable habitat modules. Some of those pioneers spent 3 days in their lunar module, something about the size of a toilet cubicle, with walls so thin you could put your foot through them without much trouble at all. If their ascent stage engine didn't light ... that was the end of the party!

I consider it miraculous that every lander sent to the moon performed without catastrophe. Can you imagine how fast your heart would beat right before firing up the ascent engine knowing that if the thing turns out to be a dud your gonna be the first stack of human bones on the moon? Yep, you can't seem to reiterate enough that if we wait to take all the danger out of space missions we'll never be going anywhere. Those were definately brave people who went to the moon.
As for the motivations of manned vs. robotic missions, I think Zubrin makes a good argument in his last chapter of Case for Mars. He defends the notion that societies are doomed to stagnation and anti-human philosophies without a new frontier. I think he's pretty much right although I'm not sure Mars could really serve as that frontier. But I still think we should go anyway just for the hel and adventure of it. Just the fact that it's there is good enough reason for me.

Dayton3 · 2002-06-06 21:06:07

One of the biggest arguments for a manned mission is simply this..........a single Manned Mission to Mars will accomplish more than 100 unmanned missions.

How much soil or rock is projected to be returned by the proposed sample return mission, ONE or TWO kilograms. A manned mission could be expected to return A HUNDRED or more kilograms from dozens of carefully selected sites. Not to mention all the work done by the two scientists on site.

In one fell swoop, you would get more scientific return from Mars than 50 years of unmanned missions.

Josh Cryer · 2002-06-06 22:44:31

I'm surprised that someone like Josh, who's had a relatively long association with New Mars and is presumably a member of The Mars Society, can tend more to the robotic probe side of the argument.

Ack, I'm not actually a member of the Mars Society. But maybe since people here actually expect that of me, I should join? I just... don't get involved in those kinds of things.

Anyway, it should be highly noted that I am not with clark on the question as to whether or not Mars Direct is viable. I certainly think it is.

But I am quite interested in AI (autonomous) and robotic (remotely operated) technology, so naturally I would think that they were more capable than humans (from a certain perspective). If that's an error in my mode of thinking, well, that's just me. I just don't see Martian geologists doing things a fearless robot would do; I believe even they will be using robots.

Indeed, if you were going to survey a whole area, would you do it over time, doing EVAs every day for weeks, when a few robots could do the same task quicker using many different methods? (You could have low-flying robots which do topology, ground robots which survey land heights, etc.)

I, personally, would rather have a robot gather up stuff for me from the protection of my life module, rather than going on an EVA in a cumbersome space suit. I guess that detracts the romance of the whole thing, though.

clark · 2002-06-07 11:23:49

Clark the unbearable doom and gloom sayer speaks again...

Anyway, it should be highly noted that I am not with clark on the question as to whether or not Mars Direct is viable. I certainly think it is.

Let me clarify to all those who have declared that I am the nay-sayer for Manned Missions to Mars. I support whole-heartdly the desire, dream, and goal of getting SOMEONE to Mars.

Where I differ with the Zubrin sycophants is that I want to be honest and truthful in the means, and reasons for going to Mars. My "negative" comments are not negative- they are legitimate critques of what I preceive to be half-thoughts and out-right lies. In other words, I am taking nothing at face value.

Show me the economic model that makes Mars work. It dosen't currently exsist.
Explain to me how you can plan for a long duration space mission without an effective plan for dealing with the radiation, bone loss, and muscle deteroroation of such a journey.
Show me the working plans for a space-ship with artifical gravity (the only currently availabel solution to health problems for long term micro-g).
Explain to me how such a ship will be developed, tested, and constructed within the "10 year" time frame.
Please explain HOW we will be able to overcome the politcal hurdles that prevent much of the neccessary technology we need for a viable long term Mars program ie nuclear power in space).
Please demonstrate conclusively the importance of colonizing mars for politcal freedoms when such freedom are available here on Earth.

I WANT mars, but I am detached enough to realize that this is a desire not largely grounded in "practicality". I UNDERSTAND that it is MY position to convince others that do not share my DESIRE to understand why the DESIRE should superceed the impracticality of the whole endeavour. The Mars Society, and ANYONE who presents the goal as practical does a disservice to the Goal- namely, they are trying to fool others.

The reason I play devils advocate is that I want legitimate reasons, not desire disguised as flimsy reasons. mars Direct is a suuicide mission, so be up front about it. DECLARE it as such. Mars makes no economic sense- ADMIT that immediately. There needs to be further research into specfic technologies to make a practical manned mission to mars viable and sustainable- BE HONEST about it.

Admit the flaws, and say, irregardless, it is in our best interest as a Society to overcome these hurdles and make it make sense.

An argument to do something that has never been done becuase it has not been possible, until now- is honest and more convincing than an argument built on half-truths.

Josh Cryer · 2002-06-07 13:06:45

Show me the economic model that makes Mars work. It dosen't currently exsist.

The economic model is the same economic model that got us to the moon. Or at least, that's my understanding of it. Mars Direct is a cheap way to explore Mars. For scientific, not directly economic, reasons.

Explain to me how you can plan for a long duration space mission without an effective plan for dealing with the radiation, bone loss, and muscle deteroroation of such a journey.

Mars Direct is such a plan. You can make plans like this all you want. No one said it was a totally safe plan. If I recall, Zubrin said he would go to Mars if the odds were 50/50, but don't quote me on that.

Please demonstrate conclusively the importance of colonizing mars for politcal freedoms when such freedom are available here on Earth.

Mars Direct is not an attempt to colonize Mars in the traditional sense. Mars Direct is a scientific endeavor which is inherently dependent on many many factors falling into place, some by mere chance.

The argument is that Mars Direct will lead to evermore increasing intersteller technology, and eventually colonization and space-based economics. Which is a fair argument...

The reason I play devils advocate is that I want legitimate reasons, not desire disguised as flimsy reasons. mars Direct is a suuicide mission, so be up front about it.

Again, Zubrin has said on several ocassions (and I'm sure Adrain has the quote I'm talking about), that he would go if the odds were low. So you can't actually expect NASA-style safety, here.

clark · 2002-06-07 14:37:36

I hear you Josh, however the problem arises that the Mars Society, and the members themselves are urging for COLONIZATION of Mars. As you have pointed out, Mars Direct is a scientific endeavour completely seperated from the issue of colonization.

Now if this is an issue of solely scientific endeavour, then yes, we can learn a great deal by having humans on Mars- but there is NO urgency for such a thing. We can plod along for the next 50 years and still do an amzaing amount of worthwhile science- and in 50 years, who knows where robotics will be, further reducing the neccessity of having humans in space.

The issue of Mars Direct needs to be sperated from the issue of colonization, but in doing so, you eliminate any urgency for sending humans.

Josh Cryer · 2002-06-07 14:44:33

Founding Declaration of the Mars Society

The time has come for humanity to journey to Mars.

We're ready. Though Mars is distant, we are far better prepared today to send humans to Mars than we were to travel to the Moon at the commencement of the space age. Given the will, we could have our first teams on Mars within a decade.

The reasons for going to Mars are powerful.

We must go for the knowledge of Mars. Our robotic probes have revealed that Mars was once a warm and wet planet, suitable for hosting life's origin. But did it? A search for fossils on the Martian surface or microbes in groundwater below could provide the answer. If found, they would show that the origin of life is not unique to the Earth, and, by implication, reveal a universe that is filled with life and probably intelligence as well. From the point of view learning our true place in the universe, this would be the most important scientific enlightenment since Copernicus.

We must go for the knowledge of Earth. As we begin the twenty-first century, we have evidence that we are changing the Earth's atmosphere and environment in significant ways. It has become a critical matter for us better to understand all aspects of our environment. In this project, comparative planetology is a very powerful tool, a fact already shown by the role Venusian atmospheric studies played in our discovery of the potential threat of global warming by greenhouse gases. Mars, the planet most like Earth, will have even more to teach us about our home world. The knowledge we gain could be key to our survival.

We must go for the challenge. Civilizations, like people, thrive on challenge and decay without it. The time is past for human societies to use war as a driving stress for technological progress. As the world moves towards unity, we must join together, not in mutual passivity, but in common enterprise, facing outward to embrace a greater and nobler challenge than that which we previously posed to each other. Pioneering Mars will provide such a challenge. Furthermore, a cooperative international exploration of Mars would serve as an example of how the same joint-action could work on Earth in other ventures.

We must go for the youth. The spirit of youth demands adventure. A humans-to- Mars program would challenge young people everywhere to develop their minds to participate in the pioneering of a new world. If a Mars program were to inspire just a single extra percent of today's youth to scientific educations, the net result would be tens of millions more scientists, engineers, inventors, medical researchers and doctors. These people will make innovations that create new industries, find new medical cures, increase income, and benefit the world in innumerable ways to provide a return that will utterly dwarf the expenditures of the Mars program.

We must go for the opportunity. The settling of the Martian New World is an opportunity for a noble experiment in which humanity has another chance to shed old baggage and begin the world anew; carrying forward as much of the best of our heritage as possible and leaving the worst behind. Such chances do not come often, and are not to be disdained lightly.

We must go for our humanity. Human beings are more than merely another kind of animal, -we are life's messenger. Alone of the creatures of the Earth, we have the ability to continue the work of creation by bringing life to Mars, and Mars to life. In doing so, we shall make a profound statement as to the precious worth of the human race and every member of it.

We must go for the future. Mars is not just a scientific curiosity; it is a world with a surface area equal to all the continents of Earth combined, possessing all the elements that are needed to support not only life, but technological society. It is a New World, filled with history waiting to be made by a new and youthful branch of human civilization that is waiting to be born. We must go to Mars to make that potential a reality. We must go, not for us, but for a people who are yet to be. We must do it for the Martians.

Believing therefore that the exploration and settlement of Mars is one of the greatest human endeavors possible in our time, we have gathered to found this Mars Society, understanding that even the best ideas for human action are never inevitable, but must be planned, advocated, and achieved by hard work. We call upon all other individuals and organizations of like-minded people to join with us in furthering this great enterprise. No nobler cause has ever been. We shall not rest until it succeeds.

Is there anything there you disagree with, clark?

clark · 2002-06-07 15:18:07

No, but then I am an idealist at heart.

These are philosphical stances- it's like me asking you if you have any objections to the tenets of the Ten Commandments.

However, the devil is in the details- and the question now falls to how we should do this, when we should do this, who should do this, is it feasible, is it prudent at this point in time, are humans on mars neccessary at this time, when would be the appropriate time, will it provide the results we are looking for, how will it provide the results we are looking for, etc.

I try to look criticaly at the proposals or ideas that are offered, I assume that is what others want, becuase how else can you improve?

Josh Cryer · 2002-06-07 16:21:34

Then why criticize the only major advocate of going to Mars? Because he has ?unconventional? views? His views may be ?unconventional? but they're realistic, as long as one is willing to accept the dangers of such a mission.

Mars Direct needn't be seperated from the issue of colonization, because it would arguably spark interest in Mars. The first thing I asked in this thread, was how Mars Direct, a scientific endeavor, leads to the frontier.

But I have extremely divergent views, so my question isn't all that obvious. I believe that if the first colonists start off depending on Terra, it would become increasingly harder to remove ourselves from that dependency. If there is no divergent culture, there would be no frontier... so Martians will be using pens and toilet paper...

Phobos · 2002-06-07 23:42:33

Believing therefore that the exploration and settlement of Mars is one of the greatest human endeavors possible in our time, we have gathered to found this Mars Society, understanding that even the best ideas for human action are never inevitable, but must be planned, advocated, and achieved by hard work. We call upon all other individuals and organizations of like-minded people to join with us in furthering this great enterprise. No nobler cause has ever been. We shall not rest until it succeeds.

*wipes tear from eye* well said Josh!

Palomar · 2002-06-08 15:34:20

Shaun wrote: "But you're quite right in my opinion when you suggest that Apollo was more "suicidal" than Mars Direct...At the beginning of the Mercury program, there were a million unanswered questions. For all that was known at the time, they might have been unanswerable!! 8 years later, Apollo 11 touched down on the Moon.
Of course Dr. Zubrin doesn't have all the answers! But he has a h*** of a lot more of them than anyone had in 1961!!!"

*I agree. I've read _The Case for Mars_, many articles at the MS web site, and have begun _Entering Space_.

I'd like to read the ideas anyone who has a better plan for getting to Mars than Dr. Zubrin, i.e. a plan more cost-effective :and: practical/common sensical :and: more logically and brilliantly simplified than Mars Direct...if we're talking of sending humans to Mars, that is.

Frankly, I want to see a human landing on Mars in my lifetime. I saw and remember the first landing on the moon in 1969, when I had just turned four (4) years old. I remember the excitement and optimism of the time. My mother yelled at me from the kitchen to stop jumping in the living room; I was trying to jump in slow motion like I saw the astronauts doing in those black-and-white, shadowy video feeds. I threw a blanket over some furniture, crawled inside, and pretended I was going to the moon and talking to Mission Control while listening to the TV in the background. I remember asking my father why they said "roger" instead of "okay."

Sorry for the digression. Anyway, again -- let's see someone come up with a better (all the way around, in every respect) plan than Zubrin's come up with.

--Cindy

MS member since 6/01

Palomar · 2002-06-08 19:18:00

Clark: "Show me the economic model that makes Mars work. It dosen't currently exsist."

*Then people with this particular know-how need to keep working at it.

Clark: "Explain to me how you can plan for a long duration space mission without an effective plan for dealing with the radiation, bone loss, and muscle deteroroation of such a journey."

*Pages 120-126, softcover edition of _The Case for Mars_.

Clark: "Show me the working plans for a space-ship with artifical gravity (the only currently availabel solution to health problems for long term micro-g)."

*Dr. Z discusses this in the same section of the book I quoted above. I'm not sure anyone here would have access to that sort of documentation; I know I don't. However, it can be worked on.

Clark: "Explain to me how such a ship will be developed, tested, and constructed within the "10 year" time frame."

*A 10-year timeframe probably is "pushing it." However, people can do what they put their minds to...once funding is granted, all the beaurocratic red tape is finally worked through, etc. I think such a ship :could: be ready in 20 years...if the danged beaurocrats and government party-poopers would either lead, follow, or get the #*^@ out of the way.

--Cindy

Shaun Barrett · 2002-06-09 02:13:34

Cindy ...

I like your wit and I like your style.
Your practicality makes me smile.
Though you may not make the first Mars crew,
They'll owe that mission to those like you!

.... and me too!!

Phobos · 2002-06-09 12:53:13

I'd like to read the ideas anyone who has a better plan for getting to Mars than Dr. Zubrin, i.e. a plan more cost-effective :and: practical/common sensical :and: more logically and brilliantly simplified than Mars Direct...if we're talking of sending humans to Mars, that is.

Tell me about it. There seems to be plenty of people who like to play death by a thousand questions with Zubrin's plans, but I have yet to see anything that's sounds even remotely plausible, both economically and technically, by those enlightened beings who like to call Zubrin a crackpot. Granted, there are technical holes here and there that need to be plugged up, but I think Zubrin has done a good job of laying the basic groundwork for a Mars mission. With human ingenuity I'm sure the few technical problems remaining could be cleared up in no time.

Palomar · 2002-06-09 14:10:35

Shaun wrote:

"Cindy ...

I like your wit and I like your style.
Your practicality makes me smile.
Though you may not make the first Mars crew,
They'll owe that mission to those like you!"

*This made my day! Thank you, Shaun!

" .... and me too!!"

*Indeed!

--Cindy

MS member since 6/01

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