ESA needs to save NASA’s Moon plans.

RGClark · 2022-06-10 09:06:43

The SLS was planned to have a large upper stage called the Exploration Upper Stage(EUS). This would take the SLS Block 1 to the SLS Block 2, needed for a single flight lunar architecture. However, the multi-billion dollar cost for development of a large upper stage from scratch means it’s unlikely to be funded.

NASA is proposing a solution using the Starship making separate flights. But this plan takes 6 flights total or likely more of the Superheavy/Starship for the Starship to fly to the Moon to act as a lander. One look at this plan makes it apparent it’s unworkable:

Actually, it’s likely to be more complex than portrayed in that figure, needing instead 8 to 16 refueling flights. This is what SpaceX submitted to NASA in proposing the plan, requiring 6 months to complete the Starship refueling:

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk details orbital refueling plans for Starship Moon lander.
By Eric Ralph Posted on August 12, 2021
First, SpaceX will launch a custom variant of Starship that was redacted in the GAO decision document but confirmed by NASA to be a propellant storage (or depot) ship last year. Second, after the depot Starship is in a stable orbit, SpaceX’s NASA HLS proposal reportedly states that the company would begin a series of 14 tanker launches spread over almost six months – each of which would dock with the depot and gradually fill its tanks.
…
In response to GAO revealing that SpaceX proposed as many as 16 launches – including 14 refuelings – spaced ~12 days apart for every Starship Moon lander mission, Musk says that a need for “16 flights is extremely unlikely.” Instead, assuming each Starship tanker is able to deliver a full 150 tons of payload (propellant) into orbit after a few years of design maturation, Musk believes that it’s unlikely to take more than eight tanker launches to refuel the depot ship – or a total of ten launches including the depot and lander.
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-elon-m … g-details/

Everyone, remember the Apollo missions where we could get to the Moon in a single flight? In fact, this would be doable with the SLS given a large upper stage. Then the suggestion is for the ESA to provide a Ariane 5 or 6 as the upper stage for the SLS. It would save on costs to NASA by ESA paying for the modifications needed for the Ariane core.

As it is now ESA is involved in a small role in the Artemis lunar program by providing the service module to the Orion capsule. But it would now be playing a _major_ role by providing the key upper stage for the SLS.

The argument might be made that the height of the Ariane 5/6 is beyond the limitations set forth by NASA for the EUS. However, if you look at the ca. 30 m height of Ariane 5 core compared to the 14 m height of the interim cryogenic upper stage now on the SLS, this would put the total vehicle height only a couple of meters beyond the height that had already been planned for the SLS Block 2 anyway:

See discussion here:

Budget Moon Flights: Ariane 5 as SLS upper stage, page 2.
https://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2013/ … s-sls.html

Coming up: ESA also could provide a low cost lander for the Artemis program.

Robert Clark

Last edited by RGClark (2022-06-10 09:08:16)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-06-10 09:33:09

My feeling is ESA will not risk it, at one time back during the Bush Mars vision was discussion here of an 'Ariane-M'. In a ways the ESA has the potential to be an amazing space agency, lands stuff on Comets, got duration flight experience within each nations its astronauts taking Shuttle trips, Soyuz trips and Private Commerical Flight to the ISS, with France it has a respectable Ariane launcher family, it has access to science projects with non-member states scientists from Canada, Japan
Latvia, Solvenia, Lithuania work with ESA and for example groups like the Swiss 'CERN', big economic powers the Germans, British, Italians, it has cargo experience 'ATV' plus ESA has satellites around other planets eg. Mars Express, they have their own space telescope missions like 'Gaia' and ESA already has done joint missions with NASA, Hubble, JWST, Cassini. However Europe is a spineless entity without true Leadership and riddled with bureaucracy.

On big risk projects Europe does not want to lead the 21st century the first century of the 3rd millennium, the leader might be the United States or China.
Japanese have SPACE WALKER INC. in Chiba and is part of the manned Aerospace design and study I'm not sure if it links to 'NASDA' and Japan's older space plane designs.
I believe Musk is the way to go not ESA.

The conclusion after discussion in past NewMars threads is ESA could possibly do it but always it made the political choice and did not want to do it.
NASA and the new administration; the path forward?
https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=7584
Nasa Shuttle, ISS Woes & To-Mars
https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=4027
Ares I (CLV) - status
https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=4529
International Space Station (ISS / Alpha)
https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=5286

France, Germany and Italy make the majority of ESA's budget 1,311 Million plus 981 Million plus 665 Million that is 27% plus 20.1% plus 13.7% unless the political people in Italy, France, Germany back manned flight it will not happen.
PDF budget
http://esamultimedia.esa.int/docs/corpo … etsweb.pdf

Although Ariane has launched JWST and the ATV it has never launched a manned spacecraft.

Who else is there after ESA? Canada, they can build have flight experience but its rockets are not really there, S.Korea too immature an agency, China or Russia ... probably never going to happen because of politics....maybe Japan as I wrote earlier modify one of their modules or H-II HTV Space Plane projects into a CEV Lander also called 'Kounotori' the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries H-2 Rocket has a lot of solid strap-ons but it is comparable to Proton, Falcon 9, Ariane 5, Atlas V. Another option could be to outsource the whole thing to some Hindu guy at his NASA tech support call center in India GSLV ...but that also isn't happening, India has no manned flight experience and it is buying from Russia while the Ukraine War in happening. Japanese could be the other option they are very commited to joint missions with NASA on the ISS, plan on sending Robots to the Moon and will join 'Gateway'. ESA doesn't want the risk of manned flight and I feel Japan might have more backbone than Europe. Its not getting solved anytime soon unless Boeing or Lockheed or someone from ULA or the Private Sector suddenly come along start making stuff better and cheaper than Musk with a magic solution.

When it comes to manned flight ESA won't man up, maybe they prefer robots because of the robotic science or maybe because they are cowards and its an outside influence from its European political elite who are afraid to make a public speech when things end in failure.

Also take not of the current political climate

“We choose to go to the moon ..." speech
- JFK

Joe Admin - Elon Musk is banned from S&P-500
"Lots of luck getting to the moon" ha ha nelson simpson laugh
- Joe Biden Kamala

In Year 2024 United States might change, however even with an invasion going on I doubt Europe will change much.

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2022-06-10 10:17:58)

SpaceNut · 2022-06-10 19:06:22

The upper stage will only happen once its flying safely for manned use to orbit.

I thought that I read another European nation was going in on the support for going to the moon recently.

Nice image of the rockets which got me into Frankenstein the srb's to the bfr stage to allow for an even heavier payload to orbit or to save more fuel in the starship....

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-07-05 07:44:38

So I was in discussion with Tahanson about the removal of Soyuz from Kourou, the Russians banned from the site and what other Commercial Rocket might step in. It seems there could be a way they could contribute to this.

'ESA SpaceX partnership question'

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#1 2022-06-10 09:06:43

ESA needs to save NASA’s Moon plans.

#2 2022-06-10 09:33:09

Re: ESA needs to save NASA’s Moon plans.

#3 2022-06-10 19:06:22

Re: ESA needs to save NASA’s Moon plans.

#4 2022-07-05 07:44:38

Re: ESA needs to save NASA’s Moon plans.

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