it's OFFICIAL >>> first manned Orion launch in June 2016

gaetanomarano · 2007-11-18 11:32:40

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from this Nov. 16, 2007 SpaceRef article:

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=1244

"NASA sources also report that the 6 month slip in the Ares 1 PDR (Preliminary Design Review) recently announced could impact the first launch of humans aboard an Ares 1 by as much as 14-16 months beyond the announced first flight date of March 2015"

did you have realized that Orion will be ready in 2012 but will not fly (then, will be "freezed" four+ years) until the Ares-1 will be (IF will be) ready for manned launches in June 2016+ ...and that the american manned-flights' GAP will be (now) of (at least) SIX years (+ further delays) ...and the first lunar landing could slip to 2022+ ...and all that (including the four+ years delay) happened in the first two years (late 2005 / late 2007) of the ESAS plan ???

that mainly (if not ONLY) due to the Ares-1 problems:

http://www.ghostnasa.com/posts/012arescantfly.html

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cIclops · 2007-11-18 12:49:22

Sheesh gaetanomarano, read the whole article:

NASA ESMD's response: "NASA decided to move the Ares I first stage preliminary design review to summer 2008 to allow better alignment with current Ares Project and Constellation Program preliminary design review planning. Conducting the first stage preliminary design review in summer 2008 will not cause NASA to delay the target date for the first flight with humans."

gaetanomarano · 2007-11-18 13:42:46

Sheesh gaetanomarano, read the whole article:
NASA ESMD's response: "NASA decided to move the Ares I first stage preliminary design review to summer 2008 to allow better alignment with current Ares Project and Constellation Program preliminary design review planning. Conducting the first stage preliminary design review in summer 2008 will not cause NASA to delay the target date for the first flight with humans."

sorry, but, all rumors and news about possible delays had become true in a matter of weeks (that's why the early "2012" first manned flight is now "2015")

also, it's very difficult to believe that, six months of delay on the Ares-1, can't cause (at least) six monhs of delay on the first manned flight (then, shifted to late 2015)

however, it's not (entirely) a "bad thing", since, after 2022, the NASA astronauts may land on the Moon with SMALL and LIGHT baggages... then buy everything they'll need there:

oxygen, spacesuits, moonrovers, T-shirts, jeans, "original" Nike moonshoes, 3-D camcorders, etc. from chinese

good food, true neapolitan pizza, ISS-derived pressurized modules, excellent lunar souvenirs, etc. from italians

oil, methane, coal, zinc, iron, steel, aluminum, gold, "good as new" Soviet Union's space-hardware, etc. from russians

computer software, space engineers, fast food and call centers workers, moontaxi drivers, etc. from indians

sushi, PlayStation 6, computer hardware, micro radio and TV, karate gyms, small lunar cars, etc. from japanese

and, also, Casino games from Las Vegas, fast food from McDonald's, a concert with Bruce Springsteen, etc.

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cIclops · 2007-11-18 14:44:32

Ok some history. NASA was given the 2014 date to replace the Shuttle by the VSE. NASA set September 2014 as the Initial Operating Capability (IOC) date. At the same time NASA and Congress wanted to close the gap between retirement of the Shuttle in September 2010 and IOC. Internally NASA planned they could bring IOC forward to March 2013 if everything went as planned. There was a possibility with a lot of extra funding that date could have been moved to 2012, but Congress didn't fund it. When the budget was frozen at the 2006 level this caused a six month delay thus extending IOC to March 2015. The earliest date correspondingly slipped to September 2013. That's where Ares I/Orion is today, nothing has changed.

Six months delay in the Ares I first stage PDR does not mean that the Ares I/Orion IOC flight dates have changed.

The 2008 budget has not been passed, so NASA are effectively continuing with their 2006 budget, if they don't get the agreed funding for 2008 soon there may be another slip. It's all politics.

gaetanomarano · 2007-11-21 10:56:30

...some history...

from the january 2004's Bush press conference to the september 2005 NASA press conference (and a futher year) the official date was: 2010 Shuttle retirement, 2012 first manned CEV launch, 2018 first (new) manned moon mission (a date that already appeared "too long" when announced...)

the "september 2014" date is about one year old, while, the "march 2015" date is a few months old and the "May-July 2016" date is just a few days old

more funds may help, but can't change the 6+ years J-2X R&D timeline nor add more power to the Ares-1

Six months delay in the Ares I first stage PDR does not mean that the Ares I/Orion IOC flight dates have changed.

after so many delays (4+ years added in the first two years of the ESAS plan...) they can't admit its the "nth" delay, but, unfortunately, in ALL complex plans, if you add six months to one of its steps, the entire plan slips of (at least) six months...

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cIclops · 2007-11-21 11:40:20

from the january 2004's Bush press conference to the september 2005 NASA press conference (and a futher year) the official date was: 2010 Shuttle retirement, 2012 first manned CEV launch, 2018 first (new) manned moon mission (a date that already appeared "too long" when announced...).

Nope. VSE announced that the Shuttle replacement would be flying by 2014 and RTTM by 2020.

Checkout section C here

Where does NASA say first manned Orion launch in June 2016 ?

Mars_B4_Moon · 2007-11-22 00:15:08

from the january 2004's Bush press conference to the september 2005 NASA press conference (and a futher year) the official date was: 2010 Shuttle retirement, 2012 first manned CEV launch, 2018 first (new) manned moon mission (a date that already appeared "too long" when announced...)
the "september 2014" date is about one year old, while, the "march 2015" date is a few months old and the "May-July 2016" date is just a few days old
more funds may help, but can't change the 6+ years J-2X R&D timeline nor add more power to the Ares-1
.

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#1 2007-11-18 11:32:40

Re: it's OFFICIAL >>> first manned Orion launch in June 2016

#2 2007-11-18 12:49:22

Re: it's OFFICIAL >>> first manned Orion launch in June 2016

#3 2007-11-18 13:42:46

Re: it's OFFICIAL >>> first manned Orion launch in June 2016

#4 2007-11-18 14:44:32

Re: it's OFFICIAL >>> first manned Orion launch in June 2016

#5 2007-11-21 10:56:30

Re: it's OFFICIAL >>> first manned Orion launch in June 2016

#6 2007-11-21 11:40:20

Re: it's OFFICIAL >>> first manned Orion launch in June 2016

#7 2007-11-22 00:15:08

Re: it's OFFICIAL >>> first manned Orion launch in June 2016

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