Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

kbd512 · 2018-10-31 18:23:05

SpaceNut,

Please explain to the rest of us how American products produced by American workers can be competitive in the global marketplace when our products are subject to import tariffs in foreign markets, whereas foreign products sold over here are generally not subject to import tariffs. I'm trying to understand how it is that you think that's supposed to work. Do you want American workers to have jobs that produce a living wage, or do you want manufacturing jobs in America to be shipped overseas?

SpaceNut · 2018-10-31 19:15:00

Even after a tariff is removed the price of the goods will not go down, the jobs are already gone and will be slow to restart. The manufacturing has mostly left the states already so they are not coming back.
Equitable trade starts with bartering of equal types of product and not cash values which can be any value not even based in reality to what it does cost to make it. Bartering takes out the employee under paid wages as the cash value changer which is what currently happens.
If we closed our borders to all trade we would have lots of failings before we would get out of it.

kbd512 · 2018-10-31 19:41:34

SpaceNut,

Except that our manufacturing jobs are coming back. All those new jobs aren't people working at new Walmart's or McDonald's. Our economy isn't a bartering system, either, it's based on total cash value of sales, or flow of monies within supplies of monies. Furthermore, imposing tariffs on certain goods is not closing our borders to all trade, nor anything remotely like it.

I keep seeing the same logical fallacies repeated over and over again. I know economics is not a subject like rocket science or a good science fiction novel, but man oh man is it ever necessary to understand why the economy works the way it does. It's not all corporate greed or rich people trying to get richer. The profit or greed motive may be why people start businesses, but only an understanding of basic economics will keep someone in business. Please indulge that one request to read "Economics in One Lesson".

SpaceNut · 2018-11-02 20:50:10

So what is the deficit telling you...as its on the increase still.
US trade gap grew to $54 billion in September trade deficit in goods with China hit a record.

Imports climbed 1.5 percent to a record $266.6 billion, led by an influx of telecommunications equipment and clothing. Exports also rose 1.5 percent to $212.6 billion, led by increases in shipments of civilian aircraft and petroleum products.

Status quo is not winning the war as Trump sees the lopsided trade numbers as a sign of U.S. economic weakness...

RobertDyck · 2018-11-03 02:48:14

kbd512,

Tariffs that affect Canada are on steel and aluminum. Yes, it is a major problem. Canada is a major supplier, even the US military said they depend upon Canadian steel. Actually, Canada imports more steel from the US than we export. However, certain types of steel go certain ways. There's a major push in Canada to make removing these tariffs from Canadian steel and aluminum a condition for signing the new USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) which replaces NAFTA.

SpaceNut · 2018-11-04 13:14:49

Trump's tariffs have U.S. companies cutting their forecasts

Companies spent the past several decades setting up their supply system in China as factories there perfected low-cost productivity and have simple shipping routes to the U.S. West Coast. Footwear and clothing retailers, in particular, still require humans to put together goods, Helfenbein said.
As production shifts, finding substitute capacity for factories in other countries while keeping costs low is difficult and could can take years or even decades. For consumers, that means higher prices.
Mr. Trump "has now baked inflation right into the system. Therefore, prices will go up no matter what," Helfenbein said. "There's no going back at this point. We can't suddenly call off the dogs. This is going to affect us for the next 10 or 20 years."
"You won't be able to call off the exodus"
Yet for consumer-goods makers, once the decision to use a supplier or factory in another country is made, there's no turning back

The exudos happened in the 70's through the 90's for many that left and did not come back including branding of once madein america products....

Void · 2018-11-04 15:51:52

Well, I will try to balance you out Spacenut.

An inflation from 2% to 8% is good for the stock market. That's a start.

And then if inflation shows up, the fed can raise interest rates, and then have that as something they can drop later when we get the next recession. The retired in that above sequence, then can either attempt to profit on the stock market, or more likely put their retirement money in money instruments and bonds with a good rate of gain.

As for markets, we still have the baby boomer market although that is on the wane. However if they have relatively secure investments with a reasonable return, they will become penny pinchers more slowly.

The Millennials will not be up to full speed until 2030, at which time they provide a significant market. We apparently are the only location on the planet, where there is a significant Millennial market in the making. Not even Canada, certainly not China or Europe.

As it happens Mexico is just now at the peak of it's labor force, and developing an internal market which to some degree we can sell into. The Mexicans are not donating a net of new people to us anymore. They are a fantastic market for our natural gas at this time. They are more skilled and lower cost than China, and more local. Perhaps less fossil fuels burned to ship things around North America.

Should we need it there are 65 million central Americans, of which reportedly 60% would like to come here. The deal then is to sell them natural gas as well if we have enough, which I think we will for some time. And make them similar to Mexico, where they have their own good place that they do not want to leave.

In order to keep the Soviet Union in check we made a deal with China, where they would get access to our market, the payment was to be a degree of loyalty to modernization, and it was hoped a movement from totalitarian government. We also arrange to keep the sea lanes open for commerce. We pay for that.

Well the new deal as far as I can tell is North America + UK + Japan + Korea? + Australia + N.Z. (Maybe), + (I think the Nordic countries will drift in also, probably keeping more of a distance though I would think) + Maybe some others not mentioned.

But since China will not and cannot do other than have a totalitarian state now, and since they will not have a market for us to sell into as their population ages, and since we have Mexico and Latin America to work with, it does not make sense to guard the sea lanes for them and also give them prime access to our markets which are probably the best ones on the planet. This is even more true as they want to restrict our access to the south China sea. Why should we pave the road to hell for ourselves? We also guard shipments of petrochemicals to China. Why should we pay for that?

The shifting of jobs to Mexico, the USA, and Central America will be some trouble, but we are in a tight labor market just now anyway, it is a good time to do it.

Anyway Hillary would have done the same thing, perhaps a bit slower and with more grace, I might admit. Trump does not just get up and say, "You know what I am just going to do some weird stuff". You can be sure that for the most part he does what the powerful in this country want. It would have been the same for Hillary.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-11-04 16:10:06)

SpaceNut · 2018-11-04 17:43:21

Labor market just got satuated with the jobs that have now been lost from Sudden closures of papa ginos pizzeria & D’Angelo restarant & Grilled Sandwiches chain stores in NH and Mass..

The Dedham-based company previously said it had 150 stores. As of Sunday, its website only listed 97 locations.

Void · 2018-11-04 17:47:20

Well, unfortunately that happens, but new things are likely to sprout up in this environment.

I would not feel at all good if it was my job either.

Done

Void · 2018-11-04 17:48:46

Well, unfortunately that happens, but new things are likely to sprout up in this environment.

I would not feel at all good if it was my job either.

I don't like inflation either, as it adversely affects my pension which has no COLA. Still I anticipated that reality. I expect the FED to be aggressive against inflation, so, I should have opportunities with money instruments to balance that out.

Done

Last edited by Void (2018-11-04 17:50:27)

SpaceNut · 2018-11-05 18:16:35

The writing is on the wall when the construction industry slows to the point that material stores are closing...
Lowe’s Store Closings in fact 51.

The home improvement chain said Monday that it will shut down 20 underperforming stores in the United States and 31 in Canada by Feb. 1, 2019.

Just another sign that this war is cutting in both direction...

Void · 2018-11-06 09:42:47

Well, adjustments will be mandated. You have to keep in mind that the baby boomers are going to increasingly be looking to downsize. That means less home improvements, and of course for older people less "Do-It-Yourself" home improvements.

Here is a pretty fair read on the possibility's of the future for us. I really suggest that you do actually read it.
http://www.areadevelopment.com/Business … 2666.shtml
Quote:

First Person: U.S. Economy Uniquely Positioned for 21st Century
One of Area Development’s staff editors recently interviewed Peter Zeihan, a former analyst at the geopolitical security firm Stratfor and author of The Accidental Superpower. Zeihan discusses the North American shale boom and the role of the U.S. in protecting global trade.
Peter Zeihan, Geopolitical Analyst
Q2 2015
AD: You’ve always loved maps. What is it about maps that so captivated you?
Zeihan: As a kid I was always interested in what was beyond the next hill. There are so many things to know, see, and do. Maps are the key to all of them. So whenever I’m looking at a region for the first time, or revisiting it for a client, I pull up every map I can find. Maps are the gateway to understanding how everything fits together.
AD: What is geopolitics?
Zeihan: Geopolitics is the study of place and how place shapes everything. Geopolitics has shaped global history and human evolution as long as we have had the ability to read and write. Geopolitics also is messy, involving everything from finance to culture to cuisine to war.
AD: Can you briefly explain Bretton Woods and why it is so important?
Zeihan: Before World War II, major power centers such as Germany, England, and Japan used their navies to guarantee themselves resources and market access. And they clashed over those resources and markets. Hostility was a structural feature of the system, all but forcing war. At the end of World War II, the U.S. ended this system by committing its Navy to enforcing free trade. And that’s how things have been since 1944. The idea that international trade is a public good is central to how the world works, but it’s not central to how the U.S. works. We’ve been backing away bit by bit for the last 25 years. We have a President now who has not initiated or completed a single trade negotiation with anyone.

Peter Zeihan, is a former analyst at the geopolitical security firm Stratfor and author of The Accidental Superpower.
AD: Why do you think the impact of shale on the U.S. and the wider world promises to be enormous?
Zeihan: We are looking at North America being oil self-sufficient by the end of next year. By conservative estimates, there’s enough shale oil to last 20 to 25 years. That assumes no increases in exploration and that oil production costs do not drop any further. The U.S. is now not just exporting natural gas to Mexico, but also to Canada. We are looking at a radically different energy environment, one in which the U.S. can meet all of its needs
AD: What impact will aging demographics have on the U.S. and the world?
Zeihan: When the baby-boomers retire, it’s going to cause a bit of a financial Armageddon. We are stressed about this and we should be. People in their 50s and 60s are our tax base. This is where all the money comes from to fund the government. And when they turn 65, they will move from contributors to the system to dependents upon the system. So the American fiscal situation is going to be very dark. But as a percentage of the population, the baby boomers are the smallest of their cohort, compared to the global boomers. Everyone else’s problem with financing this mass retirement is going to be far greater than it is in the United States. And Gen Y doesn’t exist anywhere else in the world except in New Zealand. It’s like everybody in 1965 suddenly forgot to have kids. You will see a collapse in the consumption base in countries as diverse as China, Japan, Russia, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Germany.
AD: What impact will these trends have on U.S. manufacturing?
Zeihan: Manufacturing is going to be a mixed bag. The old way of having assembly plants in 18 different countries is probably going to go away. Under Bretton Woods, transport is safe, cheap, and protected. When you remove the American Navy from the equation, it becomes much less safe. I see a return of the old-style massive industrial park where several steps of the production process happen in fairly close proximity. So if you have a country that you have a positive relationship with that has a different wage structure, you will probably see a lot of manufacturing facilities going up along those borders. I expect the U.S.-Mexico border to look very positive in the future. But if you are involved in a 20-step supply chain that touches Asia and Europe, you can pretty much count on that vanishing.
AD: You’ve mentioned that the U.S. has a unique geographical footprint, as compared to much of the world, which sets up the country for continued success. Please explain.
Zeihan: The Greater Midwest is the single largest chunk of contiguous arable land in the world. From a food production and population-sustaining point of view, it is by far the best. But what really makes it work is the Greater Mississippi system. It overlays the best land, which includes the intercoastal waterway that goes all the way up to Chesapeake Bay. Nearly all of the American population, well over 85 percent, is within 100 miles of one of these navigable waterways. It’s much easier to move goods on water than it is on land. Counting “merely” the cost of locomotion and fuel, waterways have a 12 to 1 advantage over road transports. Factor in everything else from infrastructure to insurance and it goes up to 50 to 1.
AD: You believe the next 15 years will be an extraordinary period for the U.S. Why is that so?
Zeihan: I think the next 15 years will be a very painful process for most of the world, but I think it will be least painful in the U.S. You’re going to be watching the stability that we grew up with fall away. But the U.S. will be the number one destination for skilled immigration and capital flight. We will have the resources that we need. Elsewhere in the world, you’re going to be looking at resource wars, industrial collapse, and economic depressions. By 2030, the U.S. boomers will have mostly died off, and the financial crush of supporting their pension system and healthcare will be gone — but the rest of the world just keeps getting older, sicker, and less viable. That is when the American century really begins.

Outside of "NAFTA" we really are not very dependent on foreign trade, one of the least dependent of developed countries.

I disagree with him on the certainty of my fate. 2030 may not be the end of me even through I am a baby boomer in the center. Barring cancer my people live into their 80's and 90's typically. And I do believe that fantastic medicines are about to show up to extend health span and lifespan. In such a world, seniors having jobs is not altogether wrong, actually if the medicines suggested show up, that will eventually be expected in life.

……

North America is rather unique other than India, in being able to bond the Northern and Southern cultural entities. Yes the civil war was a disaster, but for the most part the two work together well here.

And I suppose it is time to educate you on what I mean by Northern and Southern. Not necessarily pointed by a compass, if you look at demographics. For instance Mexico for the most part is populated by Siberians, (or people from Beringia) and people from Iberia. The people from Beringia are historically Northern. The people from Iberia obviously southern. So, Mexico is probably 3/5 Northern by genetics, and 2/5 southern by genetics. I am racist in the sense that I see trends of "Breeds" of humans per their historical methods of survival in the stone age. There has most likely been very little evolution in the last 10,000 years for the populations.

Northern tends to favor co-operation as necessity for survival, and certain types of technological instincts. Horizontal domination by groups. The southern rather favors vertical social domination. In my theory, which I am always ready to modify, if I see evidence that I should. So for us the Mexicans are not really that much of a deviation from our own history of Northern group industrial activity, and Southern vertical dominance method.

Each has it's methods of cruelty. Horizontal, Vertical. In my opinion the North is more masculine, the south more feminine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beringia

Interestingly many peoples of northern Europe are rather closely related to Beringia peoples, and so related rather closely with the Beringia people who populated the Americas, Siberians if you like that phrase. So again, the more things change in this case the more they stay similar.

In fact there is now evidence that people only 20,000 years removed from Europeans once lived in Alaska.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/dna … 54675.html
Quote:

International
DNA Analysis Shows Native Americans Had European Roots
Montana Boy
Bones Show Ancestral Links to Europe
Despite general resistence, representatives of tribes in the US recently gave their blessing for DNA analysis of the remains of a Stone Age child. Research conducted on the boy's genes indicate that Native Americans have European roots.
By Rex Dalton

My racism allows that we have to seek to have good relations with peoples who are also not like us, and yet here it is pleasing to find that we are with family on this continent, and even in South America.

Oh and by the way, it turns out I am .2% either Native American or Asian, so, I guess I cannot join the KKK, if I wanted to. But I could try to do a Pocahontas! So I am a person of Color? "One Drop!"

…...

Anyway, Ronald Regan seized on an opportunity to give our industrial base to China, and implement a "Service" economy. What is the root word of Service? Servant. So the south again. Vertical domination. It did help us avoid pollution, and to also keep the Soviet Union in check until it failed. But now the "Northern Union" (The actual name for Soviet Union), is no more.

Curious how the Verticals tend to not like the words Northern or Union. But unions are tending to go for Trump now, as unlike the democrats who have become south, vertical dominated, some part of the current agenda fosters a favor to the north horizontal domination.

Now the north, which includes Mexico, offers a re-industrialization of North America, and a less servant oriented, less vertical domination of our peoples. I like it.

Change is troublesome either way. Look at what the "Rust Belt" had to put up with in the north.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-11-06 10:22:16)

clark · 2018-11-06 21:47:59

Hey Void, to be clear, your views are wrong. Your views and comments should be rejected. Void, you are wrong.

I recognize you are comfortable in your views. You are comfortable in your mild racism or ethnic bigotry. I recognize your rationalizations that underpin your world view.

If I was a stupid cow, i would be the first to follow. If i was proof of theoretical extrapolation of genetic/social Darwinism, I would probably not comment, as I would be some proof that reinforce your opinion.

Everyone, if you agree or align or forgive Void's points, you are a sad fu*king human being. Void, talk science. You are smart when you do that. You are a terrible person when you don't. This is coming from a terrible human being so fu*king take a moment to reflect.

Void · 2018-11-06 21:56:22

The swearing seems rather emotional. Not rational. Perhaps you should ask me further why I propose what I do.

First of all I don't believe in the blank slate. I do believe that human minds are reasonably plastic, can be programmed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Blank_Slate
Quote:

The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature

There is nature and there is nurture.

Do breeds of dogs have different temperaments? Then why not humans who in a sense may be the residual of the environment in which their sub group "Evolves".

Alright in the more northern areas we have the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_ … ganisation. India, in my opinion being both of the north and south, is a bit of an outlier, still to a great degree of the north.

Do you see a pattern?

"Shanghai Cooperation Organisation". Hmm.... Cooperation. Is there something like that in the south?

In my opinion the nations of North America balance the north and south, so, a compromise between cooperation and competition.

However if you or others wish to go right ahead and disagree, then just say so. You don't have to be hateful or swear. Show me your replacement theory then.

Race is not actually real, but behaviors are. Behaviors in groups of people are also real. Can be observed.

If you want a fight I am not going to give one. I don't care at all if you agree or don't believe what you want. I gave you an option.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-11-06 22:04:37)

clark · 2018-11-06 22:04:32

Void's not done, but we appear to all be dogs in his world view. Woof Void. Woof.

I don't need to fight, the failure of the public education system is proven with every reply you care to provide.

Void · 2018-11-06 22:23:27

As breeds of dogs are all dogs, types of people are all people.

As it happens I think that it can all be reconciled eventually, to the favor of everyone.

clark · 2018-11-06 22:41:07

Yeah void, your reply shows how sad you are.

Void · 2018-11-07 13:19:00

Why don't you quite flinging feces and consider a further questioning of what I said instead of irrationally resorting to rigid political correct thinking. You can ask, but I won't tell, except that your vile response is entirely inappropriate.
......
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-explanati … short.html
Quote:

A possible explanation for why pygmy people in the jungle are so short
November 7, 2018 by Bob Yirka,

You read it yourself or not.

So you see people who are at least posing as scientific researchers can speculate on such things. Their notion is basically that a short body works well for navigating through the jungles for the pygmies. I will also add that as jungles seem to be in warm places, then there would be little evolutionary pressure for the body size to be as large as other people.

And I would be willing to allow for the potential that such a people may have a marginally different brain structure and mind structure. Not an inferior brain and mind, just perhaps a small amount potentially different.

Some of the mind difference emerging from genetic drift, some from natural selection, and some from learning from the environment they would live in.

If they were a larger subset of the human race we would most likely have to notice the influence on culture that they would give. But they are a small group and really in retreat, so we can just mostly ignore them except for scientific interests.

......

I myself am likely fairly high on the Neanderthal inheritance. Probably 80% of the maximum known, which I think is approximately 5%.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/04 … eandertals
Quote:

Neandertals and modern Europeans had something in common: They were fatheads of the same ilk. A new genetic analysis reveals that our brawny cousins had a number of distinct genes involved in the buildup of certain types of fat in their brains and other tissues—a trait shared by today’s Europeans, but not Asians. Because two-thirds of our brains are built of fatty acids, or lipids, the differences in fat composition between Europeans and Asians might have functional consequences, perhaps in helping them adapt to colder climates or causing metabolic diseases.

I also believe that like a lot of northern Europeans I inherited a layer of fat over almost the entirety of my body. Having inheritable physical differences, and experiencing slightly different physical realities should actually make it possible for different groups to experience life in slightly different ways, and that could influence temperament and cultural behaviors as a chartable trend, if you would know what data to explore. I think I have been entirely reasonable.

......

But if you want to throw feces just let fly. In any case baring a very unlikely apology from you I will not exchange ideas with you. You have proven to be a very unpleasant and unreasonable person.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-11-07 13:31:43)

SpaceNut · 2018-11-07 18:30:16

poop once dry does burn but the smell is the same....

kbd512 · 2018-11-07 21:09:31

Could we discuss global economics in this thread instead of poop?

Void · 2018-11-07 23:19:02

OK, but remember I never used that word.
http://www.atimes.com/article/trump-all … ith-china/
Quote:

Trump all but announces trade deal with China
US president touts success in getting Beijing to moderate Made in China 2025 target
By David P. Goldman November 8, 2018 3:23 AM

I'm not saying it's true, we will see.

I do follow this guy from time to time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_P._Goldman

He has written some books. Mostly about how civilizations die. Perhaps that could entertain you.

There, un-pooped.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-11-07 23:22:45)

SpaceNut · 2018-11-08 18:57:04

Say its not so in that the tariffs on canada have come back to haunt as Trump’s tariffs squeezed Canada. Now American beer is feeling the pinch.

The steel and aluminum price squeeze...with all products that are held in a can of any material type.

The mad rush is on to get product shipped out of its nation.

Trump's Trade War Spurs Chinese Export Rush to Beat Tariffs

American businesses paid 50% more in tariffs in September due to Trump's trade war, industry coalition says

U.S. businesses shelled out $4.4 billion in tariffs in September, a surge of more than 50 percent from the same month a year ago,

ouch....

Trump appears to feel his strategy is working, however. He has repeatedly threatened to raise existing tariff rates and add duties on another $267 billion of Chinese goods.

105537630-ScreenShot2018-10-29at3.07.30PM.600x337.png?v=1540842293

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/10/29/t … trump.html

RobertDyck · 2018-11-12 14:17:26

I posted a link to a news article in the other thread. This is a different news article, but it has the same video.

CBC: Trudeau told Trump in Paris he wants to 'resolve' tariffs issue before G20 in Argentina

SpaceNut · 2018-11-15 22:14:19

The economy might be booming in small areas of the nation but from the numbers is this a seasonal job loss or is it more likely that the tariffs are having an adverse effect....The Labor Department said claims for California, Virginia and Texas as well as those of Puerto Rico and Hawaii had been estimated.

SpaceNut · 2018-11-17 21:07:46

The cities adding the most jobs in every state
Employment chg. 2013-2018: or State employment chg. 2013-2018:
5 years of a 10% growth is still 2% which slow still....

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