Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

SpaceNut · 2018-07-01 18:28:40

The political topic has also been party to the economics of what is causing american jobs not to be created and how goods bought from non american location are to fault for why and how online business as well are causing store closures.

This has become little more than one upmanship for who can hurt whom. It is not a war Trump can win.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_tariffs

January 2018, Trump imposed tariffs on solar panels and washing machine.

Isolationist will not work in a world based economy.

Buy American while its a good catch phrase has little to do with why we do not as the late 70's to 90's were followed with many a law suit for inferior products that still cost more than the foriegn goods and where not all that much more than the imported item which lasted about the same duration of time.

The visit to even currier did not stop the down sizing even with tax cuts.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/22/politics … index.html

U.S. and China Expand Trade War as Beijing Matches Trump’s Tariffs

The United States has levied global tariffs on metal imports that include those from Europe, Canada and Mexico, while threatening to tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement.
These countries are fighting back, drawing up retaliatory measures that go after products in Mr. Trump’s political base. China’s response was swift on Friday, focusing on $50 billion worth of American goods including beef, poultry, tobacco and cars.
The trade actions could ripple through the global economy, fracturing supply chains and costing jobs at American companies that will be forced to absorb higher prices.

Canada punches back at US with new tariffs

Canada has retaliated against US steel and aluminum tariffs by slapping its own penalties on American exports.
The Canadian government confirmed Sunday that it has imposed tariffs on US exports worth 16.6 billion Canadian dollars ($12.5 billion).

We have already heard that materials are causing auto industry, motor cycle and others to send jobs to other locates due to the tarriffs.

SpaceNut · 2018-07-01 18:57:42

Trade agreements do not equal quality of life prosperty or jobs as these have to do with wages, taxation and quality of goods.

As meantion in the south of the border the Nafta agreement did and was a changing force for the states that border the US.

Trump to delay signing Nafta deal until after midterm elections

Move aimed at reaching a better deal with Canada and Mexico
US and Canada in tit-for-tat dispute over Trump’s tariffs

Not even close as I can hear the rhetoric saying the Democrats are holding us hostage....

louis · 2018-07-01 20:16:28

The USA (essentially with Canada) is basically a continental economy. Back in the early 50s it was producing about 25% of the world's GDP.

I am not suggesting that the USA could go back to those days but it is illustrative of the USA's tremendous productive capacity.

I think Trump is essentially right that the USA has let itself be used. The USA doesn't need the rest of the world in the way that the rest of the world needs the USA (its IP, its IT, its hungry import markets, its military, its cultural output (films, music etc) and its business know-how).

Trump the businessman senses the advantage and I think he is right.

SpaceNut · 2018-07-01 20:35:57

That was when the canadian dollar and the US dollar were nearly of the same value.

Trump is trying to go it alone and thats not where we are...

Instead this is that bias and hatered towards anything that does not match the presidents view...
Neighbors who call police on 12-year-old mowing lawn increase his business, customer says

The patch of grass the neighbors were apparently referring to sits between Holt's home and theirs. There is no fence there to mark where the property begins and ends.

Maybe that neighbor should have said thank you and then tried to tell the young man what property lines are....and then asked how much to continue the job to make the lawn look better instead....

A world of cooperation versus a world of wars....

SpaceNut · 2018-07-01 21:31:26

SpaceNut wrote:

Well going solar will not be happening for some after the tarrifs have started to hit Tesla to close a dozen solar facilities in 9 states An internal company email named 14 facilities slated for closure, but the other list included only 13 of those locations. The installation offices that the internal email said were targeted for closure were located in California, Maryland, New Jersey, Texas, New York, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Arizona and Delaware.
How are those jobs doing now....

SpaceNut wrote:

Tesla’s Solar Plans Aren’t Working
https://static-entertainment-eus-s-msn- … e151e5.gif

Feb. 1, 2018 Tesla solar kiosks coming to Home Depot
Tesla currently offers its $6,000 Powerwall and showcases its solar panels through its 110 U.S. stores. Increasing that reach to 800 locations could prove a make-or-break moment for its solar-powered mission. Trump Administration ruling that imposes a 30% year-one tax on all imported solar cells and modules.
State and federal money to subsidize the solar purchase also dropped at the same time which cause another inflation to purchase of the solar cell panels that we would all like to be cost freindly.
What Happens When the ITC Expires? The investment tax credit steps down to 10 percent in 2017. GTM Research looks at the impact on distributed generation in the U.S.
Danger of Government-Created Solar Bubble Bursting When Subsidies Expire in 2016
The Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018, signed in February 2018, reinstated the tax credit for fuel cells, small wind, and geothermal heat pumps. Residential Renewable Energy Tax Credit
http://www.thesolarguide.com/solar-ener … tives.aspx
https://www.wholesalesolar.com/solar-in … incentives
I find the graph interesting in that 2 out of 3 are on the slide downward....

SpaceNut · 2018-07-01 21:35:20

SpaceNut wrote:

The buck stops when tariffs on materials become to great for the company to remain doing business when profits mean a greater increase to be able to make the American product. So what happens is Harley-Davidson, Blaming E.U. Tariffs, Will Move Some Production Out of U.S.
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/ten … =876&y=176

The Wisconsin company said on Monday it would shift some production of its bikes overseas to avoid stiff retaliatory tariffs imposed by the European Union in response to Mr. Trump’s trade measures. The company said the move “is not the company’s preference, but represents the only sustainable option to make its motorcycles accessible to customers in the E.U. and maintain a viable business in Europe.”
Mr. Trump’s trade war is beginning to ripple through the United States economy as companies struggle with a cascade of tariffs here and abroad. While Mr. Trump says his trade policy is aimed at reviving domestic manufacturing, Harley-Davidson’s move shows how the White House approach could backfire as American companies increasingly rely on overseas markets for materials, production and sales.
Could say I told you so....Earlier this year the company said it would close a factory in Kansas City and consolidate production at plants in Milwaukee and York, Pa. The first layoffs at the Kansas City plant are scheduled for August.
Mid Continent Nail Corporation, a Missouri-based manufacturer of nails, said last week that it had laid off 60 of its 500 employees and might be forced to close as it struggles to absorb the higher cost of the steel it imports from Mexico to produce its nails.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_tariffs
Of course there are some that understand that Americans are not creating the tariffs so there is possibly trouble underfoot from America's closest allies are furious about Trump's tariffs, and now an unorthodox idea to go after him is gaining steam
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoluments_Clause

SpaceNut · 2018-07-01 21:37:40

SpaceNut wrote:

Recession fears are flaring as Trump's trade war has markets behaving in a way not seen since the financial crisis
GM warns import tariffs could lead to a smaller company a reduced presence at home and abroad for this iconic American company, and risk less — not more — U.S. jobs."
Treasury chief Mnuchin slams report that Trump wants to exit WTO a move with potentially disastrous implications for global commerce.

SpaceNut wrote:

Just more of the same in that the tariffs are heading in the wrong direction with job lose.
Another motorcycle maker, Polaris, considers moving some production overseas
Not a done yet but will most likely be the only choice to keep the company afloat...

Void · 2018-07-01 21:53:04

Oh, come now Spacenut, the whole world is exploding.

Why do you think the Brits want to get the covfefe out of Europe?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/31/us/p … itter.html

I am a monkey copying Peter Zeihan, but it works for me.

We needed the world, and finally China to keep the Soviet Union contained. We allow access to our market as a bribe to first our allies and then others up to China or so. The Soviet Union broke up, then we decide to do planet building (Not nation building).

We were the engine which was going to pull the train.
Somewhere along the line came BRICS.

Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa

Would have been beautiful if it worked. But no.
Certain bad things happened.
Brazil is all messed up.
Russia? Well, that is between treachery and potential alliance. Mostly treachery for now I think.
India? They have their own internal market and a very alien culture to ours. The notion of fixing things might annoy them as many feel that you have to live several lives of suffering, in order to rise to a higher cast. They might get mad if you make things too easy for their underlings. How can you work with that? I think you just leave them alone and work with them when you can. They are most likely no problem for us if we don't mess with their world.
China? A problem. The Han emerged through conquest. I don't think they can conceive of the "Other" who you do not eventually surround and genocide. They constantly think we are trying to surround them. Guess what? If you are a nation on the surface of a sphere of nations you are surrounded. Everyone is. They still think flat world as well.
South Africa? Getting ready to do a Zimbabwe. Poverty for all, except a few.

The little engine says "Bullshit"! And that is what it is. We don't need it, and we don't have to do it.

I do think that we want to keep NAFTA in some form, but Populism is also appearing around the globe and in Mexico. It is very possible that Mexico may torpedo NAFTA at this point.

I think we will retain some existing trade agreements, and will create some others, but where it suits us and of course our partners.

Why should we put up with globalist prancing about proclaiming the fall of the USA and it's replacement with BRICS?

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-07-02 08:42:14)

kbd512 · 2018-07-02 01:59:22

Void,

Some people just like shooting themselves in the foot and complaining that it hurts. I've mostly quit responding in these political threads because I'm tired of wasting my time explaining basic economics to people who'd rather be poor and miserable. They'd rather die than learn from their past mistakes and change when required to do so.

President Trump is pointing out, in his usual crass way, that you can't have a prosperous economy when half a trillion dollars in trade are given up to foreign countries every year. This doesn't compute with people who call themselves "liberals" (nothing "liberal" about them- GW thinks I don't see right through the endless stream of labels into their underlying thought process, but he's wrong and I know full well what type of thinking their ideology represents) because all they understand is "redistribution of wealth" (another euphemistic label for "theft" that describes exactly what communist governance does to its people). That is what our absurd trade imbalances with other countries amount to. It's plundering the wealth and prosperity produced by American capitalism to prop up communist (China) and socialist (most European countries) governments.

The communist and socialist South American governments are direct hostile threats to the US and the European governments have increasingly followed suit over the years. They see America as a piggy bank to raid using their own prejudicial trade practices and past administrations have obliged them, rather than standing up for the American people. The South American communist / socialist dictatorships send their "undesirables" over here en masse because they won't (can't, actually) take care of them. Their belief /governance systems are economic failures, as they've always been. They think, as do an increasing number of Europeans, that if only they can enrich themselves with enough of other peoples' money, then somehow their failed governance systems can be made to work, all evidence to the contrary.

At any rate, President Trump is tired of playing this game and so am I. The American worker has given up enough wealth to foreign countries. It's time to bring some of that wealth back home. If other countries impose tariffs on American made goods, then we should follow suit. If they change their policies so we actually have free trade at that point, then all the tariffs should be lifted.

Terraformer · 2018-07-02 08:40:44

There is no fence there to mark where the property begins and ends.

As a wise man once said, good fences make good neighbours.

Void · 2018-07-02 11:00:22

In case you are bored:
https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=de … 081a72bcee
But he looks like a nice guy to me.

Last edited by Void (2018-07-02 11:01:39)

SpaceNut · 2018-07-02 19:16:05

combine the worst traits of Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ted Cruz, Jeremy Corbin, Vladimir Putin and Kim Kardashian.

Quite the opening paragraph for sure....all sorts of image popped into my head of each....

NAFTA may have its faults, but its economic success in Mexico has made net Mexican migration to the U.S. negative for a decade because it gives Mexicans jobs.

Yup it did up until recent....

Smash the agreements that employ Mexicans, and two results among many will be vast increases in drug flows and illegal migration as Mexicans find it harder to find a 9-to-5. A wall would only encourage such behavior.

Did not take all that much for a negative to go wicked positive in the wrong direction....

Putting labels of ideology that are distortion and half false does no one any good.

In fact the only label on me are the ones sewn into our clothes, do not machine wash, no chlorine bleach, dry clean only, ect....

With the last one saying not made here which is the real problem for buy american as there is no choices to be had or few that are cost competitive for quality.

Void · 2018-07-03 21:15:31

https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/ … 5948488704

I don't know if we can pull up this article from this twitter link. We will find out.

Quote Mr. Peter Ziehan:

China’s response to Trump’s tariffs were the least that govt propaganda outlets could make hay out off. Xi realizes just how little leverage he has on this one.

I think from what I read, we get goods from Mexico that are favorable relative to China's. The Mexicans are more skilled now and they cost less. Plus of course less shipping costs.

So, I don't think the USA or the Mexicans are unaware of that. I think the Mexico-USA problem will be solved reasonably in the end.
Mexican demographics are to be good for some time. We would be foolish not to capitalize on that (With them benefited also).

I feel sorry for China however, bad demographics, poor access to hydrocarbons, most of their people aging and still quite poor. I don't glory in such an unhappy story.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-07-03 21:20:51)

SpaceNut · 2018-07-04 19:40:12

I see the twitter comments are little more than labeling and name calling which see to ignore how a world economy will flatten out in time as the countries with low wages will start to shift it back the other way as these people will want the products that they make...
This is sort of the labeling that our word has come back to....

How Trump’s Policy Decisions Undermine the Industries He Pledged to Help

SpaceNut · 2018-07-06 16:32:15

Sizing up the international and domestic impact of China tariffs U.S. tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports go into effect at midnight Thursday. Prompting Beijing to respond with its own tariffs on U.S. goods.

Romney rips Trump tariffs: ‘Trade wars are a tax on Americans’

They have severe consequences for many employers and inevitably cost Americans jobs," the Utah GOP Senate hopeful said in a statement.
Romney said trade wars are particularly punishing for agriculture, which is a sector in Utah the former GOP presidential contender said is "already under duress from wildfire, drought, and challenging public land policies."
"Our national objective should be to open new markets, negotiate free and fair trade agreements, and to employ American innovation and productivity to out-compete the world,"

SpaceNut · 2018-07-07 13:12:21

So tit for tat with CHina but here is what they are doing to counter the effects of food security. China is aiming to boost domestic production of soybeans by calling on its vast army of farmers to expand soybean acreage and offering greater subsidies to growers such as Rao. It is also diversifying imports away from America.

China deploys army of farmers in tit-for-tat trade war with U.S.

AAzH7JD.img?h=1066&w=799&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f

So Trump continues to think that he is winning a Tariff war...not when the price on the store shelves put product out of the reach for those that can ill afford it...

SpaceNut · 2018-07-07 20:12:28

More on the impacts to industries being hurt by Trumps Tariff war...

Betting the farm: Why the heartland still believes in Trump despite plunging prices; Tariffs that kick in Friday will be a body blow to heartland states that helped put Trump in office, testing their faith in the president's brand of negotiation. Generations of red-state farmers are bracing for impact on Friday with the knowledge that his trade war could destroy their livelihood — and alter the agricultural map forever.

Trade war threatens to destabilize Maine lobster industry at peak season; New tariffs have left a key industry in Maine scrambling for new buyers at a critical moment.

Soy farmers say they're getting hurt in Trump's trade war with China; "The math is simple. You tax soybean exports at 25 percent, and you have serious damage to U.S. farmers," said one Iowa grower.

Son wanted some T shirts yesterday and was shocked at the cost for a package of 4 or 5 ata local Walmart since thats all we have now to buy from and the tariffs have already cause the prices of imports to double from all the attacked nations.

We did find a product that he could afford from Jordan...with the money that he had but it was work to locate something on the shelves to buy. There were no american product to purchase.....

SpaceNut · 2018-07-08 08:32:35

The US industries facing tariffs include cotton, dairy, apple growers, soybean farmers say China tariffs could result in 'serious damage'

Other US industries that were hit with export taxes include meats, fruit and vegetable growers, dairy farmers, tabacco, pet products, and seafood.

There are 18 states that grow about 96% of the US's soybeans, according to government statistics.

"The math is simple. You tax soybean exports at 25-percent, and you have serious damage to U.S. farmers."

SpaceNut · 2018-07-18 17:48:26

Tennessee zipper company in crosshairs of buy-American laws

Dunlap Industries, a small manufacturing company in Appalachia that for more than 15 years made zippers for U.S. military uniforms — until last year, when a competitor complained that not all of the parts the company was using were from the U.S.
The irony? It was a Japanese company that filed the complaint.
A federal law known as the Berry Amendment requires the government to give preference to products made and sourced in America. But in today's global economy, Kwasnik says it is next to impossible to have every component of a product sourced in the U.S. As a result, he says, the law — which was introduced around the time of World War II to protect U.S. defense businesses — is now benefiting Japan-based YKK Corp., the world's largest manufacturer of zippers.

US launches national security probe into uranium imports it must be all that hillary uranium....

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Wednesday that the United States produces just 5 percent of the uranium it needs for the U.S. military and for electricity generation, down from nearly half in 1987.
The probe follows an earlier national security investigation into steel and aluminum imports, which resulted in steep 25 percent duties on shipments of the metals from the European Union, Canada, Mexico, China and Japan. A second investigation, focused on the threat to security posed by auto imports, is ongoing. Two U.S. uranium mining companies, UR-Energy and Energy Fuels, requested the investigation in January. They argued that the U.S. uranium industry has been decimated by imports from state-supported companies in Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and China.

Manufacturers starting to take a hit from U.S. tariffs

Manufacturers around the U.S. are expressing concern about the impact of tariffs on their businesses, a new Federal Reserve report shows. Although most analysts say the escalating trade tensions have yet to ripple through the economy, companies in some Fed districts report feeling the effects.
In New York, "A number of manufacturing contacts remarked that tariffs have raised their costs," the report noted. "Moreover, uncertainty about future trade policy was cited as a major concern, particularly in parts of upstate New York, where there is substantial trade with Canada."
In Philadelphia, one machinery manufacturer said that steel and aluminum tariffs imposed by the U.S. earlier this year are boosting prices, disrupting orders and otherwise affecting its supply chain.

Void · 2018-07-21 22:05:43

Hmmm....

I guess I could throw a couple of grenades in here and see if it will be fun.

Steve Bannon seems to be up to things:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/07/19/f … annon.html
I am not likely to satisfy you by getting into a mutual hissy fit or so on what he says. I think he is indeed very smart, far smarter than I am. In such a case, rather than me attempting to also say what I think he said I will just make the above available.

And of course there is another one I like to watch, of course Peter Zeihan again, no surprise there I should think:
https://siteselection.com/issues/2018/may/cover.cfm
Quote:

“It isn’t that the Chinese can’t hurt the Americans on trade, it’s just that they can’t without also causing themselves catastrophic damage. It is an America-sneezes-China-gets-Ebola sorta thing.”
— Peter Zeihan, author & geopolitical strategist

I study his video's often.

What I come away with is;
-We have the lowest cost abundant natural gas supply of any significant contenders of economics. In fact we sell lots of natural gas to Mexico and even Canada.
-We also have much better demographics than China. That is their labor force is at it's peak for at least 25 years perhaps. Ours is likely to be the best in the world.
-Agriculture: We have the greatest ability to expand agricultural output. After us come France, Argentina, Australia, and New Zealand.
-China really can try to switch sources, but that will only send our agriculture to other markets. The world is a hungry place.
-We have Mexico on our border which has even better demographics than us. They will be on a economic upswing for at least 50 years more. I am surprised at the inclusion of Mexico into the economic warfare, but apparently the effect of Mexico's growth benefitting the USA and Canada will not go away even if tariffs are permanently imposed.

From what I can read, the American position in the trade wars is vastly better than that of China.

This is an extra piece of fun:
http://zeihan.com/of-china-and-oil/
Quote from Peter Zeihan himself, the last paragraph of the above citation:

The concentration of power in the global system continues to gather in the Americans’ favor. Trump is demonstrating he doesn’t need to build an alliance to fight and win a trade war with multiple countries simultaneously. Trump is showing he can wield financial tools simultaneously with trade tools to crushing effect. Trump is showing an enthusiasm for standing up to the business community, something that resonates not just with his base, but also Bernie Sanders’. And in case you missed it, last week the United States became the world’s largest oil producer courtesy of shale, granting Trump even more leverage and autonomy in international relations.

Steve Bannon again (I am starting to enjoy studying him)
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/07/ … 40230.html

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-07-21 22:22:42)

SpaceNut · 2018-07-24 17:07:38

The casualties are starting to coming in and so are bailout funds to correct for what was a US first policy and over reacted to by Trumps claiming he can win a tariff war... not.

Trump plans emergency aid to farmers affected by tariffs

The White House is readying a plan to extend $12 billion in emergency aid to farmers caught in the midst of President Trump’s escalating trade war.

China and Mexico have imposed tariffs on U.S. produced pork this year in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs.
The aid package is expected to target soybean farmers, dairy farmers, and pork producers, among others. White House officials hope it will temporarily quiet some of the unease from farm groups, but the new plan could revive debates about taxpayer-funded bailouts and the degree to which Trump’s trade strategy is leading to unforeseen costs.

Well I said that tariffs would not work when in a world economy.

“Our farmers have been in nonstop, saying they want trade, not aid, and now they’re being put on welfare,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.). “So the tariff policies that have been put in place by the administration are now causing them to invoke a welfare policy for our farmers which I’m sure is not what they wish. So pressure is continuing to build. We’re getting more and more complaints I know the administration is also and hopefully soon this ill-thought out policy will end.”
“If tariffs punish farmers, the answer is not welfare for farmers — the answer is remove the tariffs,” Paul wrote on Twitter.

I am sure that he did not see that coming...

In the past four months, Trump has imposed tariffs against steel and aluminum imports from China, Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Japan, and a range of other countries, and he is threatening to broaden the scope of the tariffs to cars and uranium imports, among other things.
Several of these countries have responded to Trump’s trade measures by imposing tariffs of their own, and farmers have complained that they are the victims of retaliation from other countries, which they rely on to sell their products. China, for example, has announced it was imposing tariffs on imports of U.S. soybeans, diverting some of its consumption to Brazilian production. U.S. farmers complained they had become victims of the trade war, but earlier Tuesday, Trump showed no signs of backing down.
In a series of Twitter posts, he touted his strategy.
“Tariffs are the greatest!” he wrote on Twitter. “Either a country which has treated the United States unfairly on Trade negotiates a fair deal, or it gets hit with Tariffs. It’s as simple as that — and everybody’s talking!”

Actually they are say thumbs down, go fly your own kite and we will begin to slide the other way.

Void · 2018-07-24 19:42:50

We will have to see how this goes. I used to be a free trader, but not so much now. Maybe selectively and fairly.

As often I do, I will credit Peter Zeihan for alerting me to a couple of things, and I will mention how this pattern indeed seems to be fitting into a "The Fourth Turning" event.
……

For this article, Peter Zeihan said on Twitter: "Senator Warren is not my favorite politician, but when you have a point, you have a point. It is also illuminating that the populist left agrees with the populist right in principle. If I were a foreign leader & saw the interview, I would panic."

And here is the article that P.Z. pointed to > https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/23/elizabe … chaos.html

……

Here then is another item from Peter Zeihan:
For this article, Peter Zeihan said on Twitter: "Here is where thing get crazy fast. If China refuses to rainy and crude, the trumpet ministration starts secondary financial sanctions on ANY Chinese firm that imports oil, causing cataclysmic damage across the Chinese system."
And here is the article that P.Z. pointed to > https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/23/how-chi … e-war.html

……

Now, I want you to understand that these are things I am watching. I don't have a pro or con opinion on them. But it is interesting. If I am to believe Peter Zeihan, the "trumpet ministration" by far has the upper hand.

Per the second article pointed to, I believe that indeed China can threaten to buy Brazilian Soy, but if it was a better deal $ wise, they would already be doing it. And now whoever was buying the Brazilian Soy will want to turn to us to buy ours. It might take just a bit of time.

Where we have water ways to transport grain, Brazil has to ship it by Half-Truck.
http://zeihan.com/know-your-world/sao-paulo-brazil/
Quote:

The Brazilian coast, while lengthy, has almost no port capacity. Cliffs jut straight up from the ocean, and the region’s rivers flow deep into the interior before turning to the south and emptying to the sea through Argentina. Much of the immediate inland is rugged and tropical, hugely retarding any sort of infrastructure development.
The one, very notable, exception is the Sao Paulo – the singular blazing light on Brazil’s southern coast. Sao Paulo is sufficiently far from the equator and high in elevation to support a more typical settlement pattern, but its hinterland stretches downhill into the interior, rather than to the coast.
This simple fact is Brazil’s greatest curse. Successful infrastructure in Brazil that develops hinterlands actually makes its population more isolated from the outside world. Brazil may be able to grow grains and mine ores far from the coast, but such products then need to pass through ever-denser populated areas before jumping off a cliff down to the country’s poor ports. Such high transport costs make Brazilian commodities only cost-effective when credit is very cheap and demand is very high. This has been the case since 2000, but that era is coming to an unceremonious close.
For more on how geography shapes economic outcomes, see Chapter 8 in The Accidental Superpower.

Here is a very interesting read:
https://www.agriculture.com/farm-manage … -the-world
……

Now as for the first quoted item from Peter Zeihan about Sen. Elizabeth Warren and how it relates perhaps to the predictions of the 4th Turning.

I would say that indeed it seems that there could be an alliance between the Populist Left and the Populist Right. And both would want to be very selective in the future about "Free Trade", or bilateral trading systems.

There are 4 repeating archetypes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–H … Archetypes
Prophet (Current Edition Baby Boomers, (Me))
Nomad (Gen X, Peter Zeihan)
Hero (WWII, or GI generation, mostly gone or going now. But the next edition is the Millennials.)
Artist (Generation previous to Baby Boomers includes> Woody Allen. Next generation is in grade school or cribs or so on.)

……

The characteristics of the Hero generation were to participate in the winning of WWII, which put the USA in a very good economic position.
They also set up trade unionism.
They also sent humans to the Moon.
They will most likely follow a strong leader.

So, in my opinion some Millennials being left, will accept a negotiated pie sharing with the right. The right will share the pie, if they can afford it, and if it keeps them in power. Some left figures will also be in the power scheme also. So Populist, and Nationalist.

Deals with specific nation, if the terms suit us. (Presumably they have to also suit the partner).

Just now I am rather pleased with myself, because my calculations independently suggested departure of economic focus from China to SE Asia, and the entire west coast of the America's including Mexico.
(Sort of crowing to myself for the moment at least.)
If you want to know, I calculate from repetitive patterns. Peter Zeihan actually thinks analytically. It is fun for me to watch him, and the other pattern thinkers.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2018-07-24 21:15:18)

Terraformer · 2018-07-25 02:11:41

“Our farmers have been in nonstop, saying they want trade, not aid, and now they’re being put on welfare,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.). “So the tariff policies that have been put in place by the administration are now causing them to invoke a welfare policy for our farmers which I’m sure is not what they wish.

Great! So I assume Senator Corker will be happy to vote to remove all the farming subsidies the Federal government currently provides?

SpaceNut · 2018-07-25 18:00:04

It is hard not to say I told you so but I did as Tariffs are about to hit consumers, and it won't be pretty

Not sure that this one is tariff caused...
Miss You: Candy hearts company plant abruptly closes

Mattel is cutting more than 2,200 jobs as revenue falls for fourth straight quarter

Mattel Inc. announced Wednesday that it is slashing more than 2,200 jobs, which the toymaker said represented 22% of its global non-manufacturing workforce.
The maker of the iconic Barbie doll, like industry competitors, has struggled with the demise of Toys R Us, a key retailer that has been liquidating its stores after filing for bankruptcy protection last year.
The job cuts began this week and are part of a $650-million cost-cutting plan announced last year, Chief Executive Ynon Kreiz said.

GM lowers profit forecast due to rising steel costs from Trump tariffs

Void · 2018-07-25 21:33:29

I suppose I should leave you alone in your anger stew, but I won't.

The fact is I don't have answers. This is a very significant experiment, and we are in it.

It is curious though, if we said we wanted to lower the price for steel for the car companies by moving production from the USA to China, what then? Loss of steel worker jobs. Steel workers then cannot buy goods on the USA market.

In fact, I was a steel worker (In the mines), for 10.5 years or more of my working life. Both Hematite and Taconite. And I was an evil union worker for over 40 years.

My observation of the shenanigans that that involved are first hand. Most people were reasonably honorable about work ethic. There were definitely players though. Sometimes the union did not try to protect them except for what was required.

But my observation of non-union workers, is that there is at least as much feather-bedding on that side as for the Union workers, probably far more.

Further where a Union worker can tell a management person (On the proper occasion), that there policy/ideas are stupid (But usually in a more polite way), non-union workers have a greater incentive to not get fired, and so, may very well not tell that they are doing the wrong thing. They are more likely to say sure, "yes sir"!

Just letting you know Spacenut, that somehow this all seems so strange that your leftness is anti-union.

Weird.

But there will be no hissy fits from me about what you say, just giving you a heads up as to what, what you say looks like to a person like me.

Another matter. Leave Trumps hair alone. What do you think would happen if I made fun of some other presidents hair? Would that be racist?

I think the guy is a pool shark, not a bumbler.

Now hear this:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/tr … spartanntp
Quote:

The leaders pledged to expand European imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and soybeans and both vowed to lower industrial tariffs, excluding autos. The U.S. and European Union will “hold off on other tariffs”’ while negotiations proceed, as well as re-examine U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and retaliatory duties imposed by the EU “in due course,” Juncker said.

Hmmm....What was the deal about Soybeans???

Not a done deal at all.

But this can go both ways. Inflation, and a better economy.

The truth is the government (Not the elected government, the people who rule us also ), likes to have an inflation rate of at least 2%.

That is an additional tax, it allows businesses to raise prices.

The fed has kept interest rates low in the desire to promote 2% or more inflation.

With interest rates low, then a retired person with a bank account gets little in earnings. With inflation low, peoples mortgages are not eaten away. (And my pension is not eaten away ).

With deflation, my house looses value rather than gaining value.

And so on.

As I say, it is an experiment, and we are in it like it or not.

Last edited by Void (2018-07-25 21:51:29)

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