New Mars Forums

Bill White

Member

Registered: 2001-09-09

Posts: 2,114

Re: Falcon vs Zenit - Can Musk beat the Ukrainians?

A [http://www.spacex.com/index.html?sectio … erview.php]SpaceX Falcon  link.

[http://www.russianspaceweb.com/zenit.html]Zenit-2 appears bigger and perhaps cheaper.

Yet Falcon V might be cheaper for smaller payloads.

On orbit solar ion satellite recovery will further depress the launch market, however.

= = =

I have requested assistance to clean up the topic title. This article is interesting concerning SpaceX and [http://www.aiaa.org/aerospace/Article.c … IssueID=49]Falcon including this:

Before attempts at manned flight, however, Musk plans to ascend to the second step of his ladder—a “heavy” Falcon with two additional first stages used as liquid-fueled “strap-ons.” The latter feature, he says, will boost payload to 4,500 lb and drop user costs to $2,200/lb to orbit. After that, Musk hopes to obtain private financing for an even larger booster: a superheavy vehicle he refers to by the code name BFR. The BFR, possibly with a scaled-up Merlin engine, would be used for large geosynchronous satellites, or possibly for the human transport market.

Falcon; then
Falcon V; then
BFR

I wonder what BFR stands for? Maybe Big F--- Rocket?

SBird

Banned

Registered: 2004-03-10

Posts: 490

Re: Falcon vs Zenit - Can Musk beat the Ukrainians?

I don't know how much the Zenit 2 is being used.  The Zenit 3/ Sea Launch is more ofa direct competitor to Space X.  In that case, the quoted figures I've seen put Space X at a clear price advantage.  However, Space X still has to demonstrate that it can get those prices with at reliable launcher.

Bill White

Member

Registered: 2001-09-09

Posts: 2,114

Re: Falcon vs Zenit - Can Musk beat the Ukrainians?

In light of [http://www2.interfax.ru/eng/news/politi … story.html]this report - - can Musk expect non-American users for Falcon? Especially since Shtil can loft 900 pounds to LEO for $200,000 (Two hundred thousand!) compared with $6 million for Musk's Falcon 1 which can carry 1400 pounds.

SpaceX will be critical to break the Boeing/Lockmart monopoly over American launches, however I just do not see a paradigm shifting revolution until all the surplus Russian ICBMs are used up.

Unitl then, there just is no profit in low cost boosters.

SBird

Banned

Registered: 2004-03-10

Posts: 490

Re: Falcon vs Zenit - Can Musk beat the Ukrainians?

Of course, Shtil depends on a kickback from the Russian military.  I think that they write off part of the cost as a test of making sure their ballistic missile inventory is still working alright.  I suspect that this is their way of burning off the excess missile inventories they have to get rid of for treaty compliance. 

IIRC, the Shtil capacity is more like 500 pounds but it is cheap.  I think that the Planetary society's solar sail mission uses this launch method. 

Falcon I is probably going to primarily cater to US interests who are wary of sending sensitive cargo to Russia for launch.   Falcon V is where Space X will start hitting the sweet spot for really being able to compete with the other companies.

publiusr

Banned

From: Alabama

Registered: 2005-02-24

Posts: 682

Re: Falcon vs Zenit - Can Musk beat the Ukrainians?

Falcoln V will be in the SS-9/Tsyclon R-36 or SS-18/Dnepr R-36 M class. (around Delta II Tittan II or thereabouts)

Zenit will put 13 tons in orbit, and is second only to UR-500 Proton. This puts Zenit ahead of many single-core EELV's, ahead of Ariane 4 into light Ariane 5 payloads.