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Rxke

Member

From: Belgium

Registered: 2003-11-03

Posts: 3,669

Re: SpaceX sets lofty goals: manned flight! - Major treath to Boeing Medium launchers?

[http://www.aviationnow.com/avnow/news/c … 294top.xml]AviationNow

Some notable quotes from the article:
"The Falcon V flights will go for 60-70% less than the Boeing Delta II and the new Delta IV Medium
*    Pratt & Whitney will supply RL10 hydrogen/oxygen engines for the second stage of the Falcon V.
*    Falcon I flights will be listed at $5.9M (According to a sidebar article the first flight will cost the Navy around $3-4M due to the higher risk.)
*    The initial version of the Falcon V will put 10K-lb payloads into LEO for $12M. First lauch by late 2005. (This version will use two Kestrel engines for the upper stage.)
*    The RL10 version of the upper stage will put 20K-lb into LEO or 10K-lb into GTO for $20M.
*    Delta IV prices for such flights would be around $60-80M.
*    The Falcon V is aimed for eventual manned missions and will use man-rated avionics and other components from the start. The company has had "formal discussions with NASA" on ISS crew flights for "later versions" of the vehicle."

(Thank you, for bringing this up, Hobbyspace.com!)

Bill White

Member

Registered: 2001-09-09

Posts: 2,114

Re: SpaceX sets lofty goals: manned flight! - Major treath to Boeing Medium launchers?

Can Falcon V carry the new CEV?

clark

Member

Registered: 2001-09-20

Posts: 6,362

Re: SpaceX sets lofty goals: manned flight! - Major treath to Boeing Medium launchers?

Can it carry a single piece of paper? i think so.   

If not Falcon V, then perhaps some other Falcon-esq derivitive.

SBird

Banned

Registered: 2004-03-10

Posts: 490

Re: SpaceX sets lofty goals: manned flight! - Major treath to Boeing Medium launchers?

I know that the Falcon V isn't big enough for any reasonable CEV.  However, Space X is talking about an HLV at some point in the future. 

One point about the Delta rockets is that Sea Launch - a Boeing subsidiary - is already putting Delta out of business.  My father works at an unlrelated area of Boeing and gets to hear inside scoop on lots of stuff.  It turns out that Sea Launch was nearly killed by the Delta folks who realized that it would put them out of a job.  the Sea Lunach Zenit launchers can loft mass for about 1/2 the price of a Delta.  Fortunately, the Sea Launch folks seem to have made it through and there's a fairly brisk demand for those launches these days.

My guess is that the Space X folks can get slightly lower than Sea Launch for costs but that the final costs willend up being higher than they expect.  Sea Launch is already fairly bare bones and frugal.

C M Edwards

Member

From: Lake Charles LA USA

Registered: 2002-04-29

Posts: 1,012

Re: SpaceX sets lofty goals: manned flight! - Major treath to Boeing Medium launchers?

A Zenit booster only lofts 5 tons to LEO, as opposed to 20 tons for a Delta.  How am I supposed to get my spaceship from my backyard to the moon if SeaLaunch puts the Beoing's Delta Division out of Business?   

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"We go big, or we don't go."  - GCNRevenger

SBird

Banned

Registered: 2004-03-10

Posts: 490

Re: SpaceX sets lofty goals: manned flight! - Major treath to Boeing Medium launchers?

While Sea Launch is much lower capacity, it's overall business model is much better.  They use a sea-going boat for launches - you can maximize cargo by being right on the equator.  Also, you can position yourself so that downrange debris and licensing issues are moot.

The Zenit launcher is a robust, simple and cheap launcher.  It requires about 1/10th the number of technicians for a Sea Launch than Delta.  This is why Sea Launch is half the cost per kg.  SpaceX is following a similar strategy.  There's no reason that a similar strategy can't be followed for HLVs.  Delta is a relic of a dying age of spaceflight where cost is no object and teams of hundreds of engineers are required for a simple dumb booster launch.  The sooner that era dies, the sooner we can get something meaningful done in space.

Bill White

Member

Registered: 2001-09-09

Posts: 2,114

Re: SpaceX sets lofty goals: manned flight! - Major treath to Boeing Medium launchers?

Suppose we wish to go to L1, or the lunar surface, or Mars?

How much of a benefit, if any, is there to an equatorial launch versus launching from 28.5 degrees (Kennedy Space Center).

Bill White

Member

Registered: 2001-09-09

Posts: 2,114

Re: SpaceX sets lofty goals: manned flight! - Major treath to Boeing Medium launchers?

Different direction. . .

Having an [http://www.aviationnow.com/avnow/news/c … c03264.xml]alternative to Boeing might be quite useful for the new CEV.

SBird

Banned

Registered: 2004-03-10

Posts: 490

Re: SpaceX sets lofty goals: manned flight! - Major treath to Boeing Medium launchers?

The difference isn't too dramatic, you gain an additional 57.4 m/s from the Earth's rotation.  With H2/O2, ignoring staging and other concerns, you're dealing with about a 1.3% increase in your mass ratio.  While that isn't much, it's basically free cargo capacity. 

The biggest advantage of Sea Launch is that you can put your launch site wherever you want.  If you want to launch to the ISS or a polar orbit or equatorial, you can just move your launch pad to the optimum launch site.  Launching from KSC, you're stuck for lattitude and often have to spend precious fuel rotating your orbit to different inclinations.  When that's taken into account, the cargo mass benefits are quite substantial.

SBird

Banned

Registered: 2004-03-10

Posts: 490

Re: SpaceX sets lofty goals: manned flight! - Major treath to Boeing Medium launchers?

Actually, let me ammend that last statement - I lealize that i made an error in my logic.  There's not too much advantage for different orbital inclinations based off different launch locations.  However, I do believe that there are restrictions for the launch inclinaiton from KSC due to worries of debris hitting people below.  The Sea Launch gie much more flexibility in that regard.

GCNRevenger

Member

From: Earth

Registered: 2003-10-14

Posts: 6,056

Re: SpaceX sets lofty goals: manned flight! - Major treath to Boeing Medium launchers?

Elon Musk and company have set their sights pretty high... too high by my estimation. I won't put any stock in him until his Falcon-I rocket actually works a few times, much less make a Medium (>20 ton leo) launcher. And thats to say nothing of the reliability required for manned flight.

Getting into space is easier than it used to be with modern technology, but it still isn't easy, and its very possible to cut a few corners too many. I think i'll stay the skeptic about his future rocket plans for the time being. At least the engineer-army Delta/Atlas way of flying, expensive though it may be, has proven to be remarkably reliable.

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[i]"The power of accurate observation is often called cynicism by those that do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw[/i]

[i]The glass is at 50% of capacity[/i]

SBird

Banned

Registered: 2004-03-10

Posts: 490

Re: SpaceX sets lofty goals: manned flight! - Major treath to Boeing Medium launchers?

GCNR, I agree that's it's good to be skeptical until SpaceX hasa few successful launches under its belt.  However, Musk does have quite a few experienced people working for him so the odds of a usable launcher aren't too bad, IMO.