Selling out Mars and Science?

John Creighton · 2005-03-18 10:59:34

The president has proposed a vision. We will go to mars the moon and beyond. Baring world catastrophe I don’t doubt this will happen but will the presidents plan lead the US to reach mars first. Will the presidents vision get us there in the most efficient manner possible. As a space advocate I realize that the money to do what the president wants is just barely there given our current level of technology. To do what the president asks we must sacrifice science and perhaps billions of dollars of shuttle related infrastructure. We do this for the promise of greener pastures but we of yet know how we will reach those distant lands and sow those distant gardens or raise those yet inexistent cows.

Any plan must address two issues. What short terms goals are we going to accomplish. What are we going to do to reduce the cost of achieving future goals. The first issue is to demonstrate we are serious and not producing vapor-where. The second goal tells us that we are progressing in terms of engineering, infrastructure and organization. For if there is know serious progression in engineering, infrastructure and organization we have traded science for nothing.

Unfortunately without the required infrastructure the ships cannot be built to reach the moon. The engineers will not be able to test and demonstrate there ideas. But each piece of infrastructure that is sustained is sustained at a cost against future gains in engineering which can be used to achieve greater efficiency. This tension is epitomized in the space shuttle space station part of the NASA budget. It is recognized without billions of dollars increase in the NASA budget NASA cannot move forward into the solar system and sustain these programs. It is hoped by some that abandoning the ISS and replacing the shuttle with a cheaper and more powerful vehicle might be enough to move forward. Conceivably one could which such an approach move forward with a Manned mars mission in this approach. But such a step forward relays on tenuous numbers put forth buy Zubring to reach mars in the quickest cheapest manner possible. Such a choice of transportation would allow a very robust moon or Mars programming funding and technology permitting.

The alternative approach is to upgrade the EELV to the 40-50 MT range to launch a lunner program and then choose a suitable vehicle later on for a manned Mars program. This would allow NASA to reduce costs while keeping the capabilities to launch humans into space. Given that is easier to land accurately on the moon it is more reasonable to build a lunar base up out of smaller chunks. However, the EELV’s can still be docked in orbit to push larger payloads if necessary.

A vehicle of this size necessary for a mars mission could conceivably be assembled in 40 MT chunks a Mars vehicle but there is a question at the cost and complexity of such an approach. Additional it is clear that the military would benefit from being able to launch payloads in the weight range. It is not clear if the military currently has a need to launch larger payloads.

The big drawback of this approach is that NASA may need to start over to develop its mars mission architecture. If the military needs an upgraded EELV why not let the military pay for it? However, initially going with EELV will let NASA put more money into the development of key technologies that will make a future mars mission easier. These include IRSU (e.g LOX production), RLV, space rated nuclear reactors, improved life support, better space suites, possible space based industries etc.

Thus we see as an advocate we are left in the flux of history. We see that on average NASA is moving forward and we hop it will minimize its steps backwards. Will letting some infrastructure fall lead to more efficiency in the future or will history judge these actions as missteps of progress. Time will tell. I will support the engineering decisions of the people in charge if they seem reasonable and hope the decisions are made on technical rather then political grounds.

SpaceNut · 2005-03-18 11:25:06

First part of Nasa's Plan is called spiral developement of CEV of which the fly off is in 2008 of models not a prototype craft. We all know how demonstrator programs do. ??? Craft prototype by 2011 and flying it for real in 2014 is the plan. But to where is the question. ??? The chance of infrastructure to be built for the moon out of the spiral is a concern. When it is also inherently tied to using off the shelf hardware to create the vehicle.

The fear of what gets developed for the moons application versus the scale to which will be needed for crew size and duration of stay for Mars if not planned for Mars would yes indeed be a re-du of the CEV or subsequent spirals to get us there.

The penalty is that time is already started against us in that the ISS and the shuttle must be phased out before real money for the CEV can be used for the spirals of developement beyound just paper.

Martin_Tristar · 2005-03-18 18:58:55

John,

I see your concerns that the funding at current levels can not sustain the development of the planned human spaceflight programs., unmanned spaceflight programs and also create new technologies to expand the programs for the future.

The logical answer is increase the funding !!!!. But we can't do this via the normal methods - increasing taxes, or a debt on the country but we need to create a method to recover the costs from mineral, scientific and industrial sectors for the planet over a long term using the world bank or some institution modelled off the world bank for the creation of space based business infrastructure and resource infrastructure.

This funding mechanism could increase the resources being applied to the space development and also could power another industriial revolution into new processes and technologies and new metals and resources not found on earth. We spent $10 Billion on risky ventures per year why can't we space additional $10 billion on space technologies and ventures with trademark and patent protection per year. Space has provided hundreds of spin-off technologies for earth, I see that we can continue with new spin-offs that could be owned, licensed by these venture firms as payoffs for the backing of these ventures into space.

Start building Business Plans and Business Cases for space technologies, infrastructure and resources and start talking to venture capital firms.

MarsDog · 2005-03-19 01:18:53

We spent $10 Billion on risky ventures per year why can't we space additional $10 billion on space technologies and ventures with trademark and patent protection per year.

The answer is that the http://www.altavista.com/web/results?it … 1&kls=0]US Empire is declining. http://9-11congress.netfirms.com/Vidal.html]Eurasia, with 75 percent of the world's population will likely continue from where US cannot afford.

Martin_Tristar · 2005-03-19 07:36:27

MarsDog,

You smoking something more then cigerattes !!!!!!!!!

The US Government or Economy are not declining, and if that was the case the rest of the world would be as well. 1/3 of all investment globally are US Dominant Coporations, So if US have problems the rest of the world will have major problems. and US can protect itself very well.

The issue I was trying to say its time to build a capital based environment outside earth and the nations on earth. I think its time to create a new institution or re-focus the world bank from post WW2 to Human Settlement into Space. Refocus for the future growth of humanity.

Martian Republic · 2005-03-19 09:57:39

MarsDog,
You smoking something more then cigerattes !!!!!!!!!
The US Government or Economy are not declining, and if that was the case the rest of the world would be as well. 1/3 of all investment globally are US Dominant Coporations, So if US have problems the rest of the world will have major problems. and US can protect itself very well.
The issue I was trying to say its time to build a capital based environment outside earth and the nations on earth. I think its time to create a new institution or re-focus the world bank from post WW2 to Human Settlement into Space. Refocus for the future growth of humanity.

"The logical answer is increase the funding !!!!. But we can't do this via the normal methods - increasing taxes, or a debt on the country but we need to create a method to recover the costs from mineral, scientific and industrial sectors for the planet over a long term using the world bank or some institution modeled off the world bank for the creation of space based business infrastructure and resource infrastructure."

The only way to increase the funding for space as such, would be to give the Treasury Department the power to generate credit the way that FDR did or otherwise there is no serious way that we could increase the NASA budget enough to make any serious differences for space. Those spin off that you are referring to come as a result of investing in space venture and not before you invest in those space ventures. So you have to have a continual flow of working capital into our space venture to get though spin off technologies to expand the physical economy down here earth or our spin off technologies will stop like after the moon projects and when we went no further. To keep those new technologies being developed and getting those spin off that you are talking about, you need a Federal Government that going to invest in those new mission like going to the moon or building moon bases or going to Mars or Mars bases or city that generate those technological spin off.

MarsDog is correct, the US economy is in trouble and is on the verge of collapse and thing are not going very well inside the United States.

Now we can correct that problem, but the United States is going to have to change is policies which are bankrupting it. The Federal Reserve will have to be bankruptcy reorganization. We will have to Get Out of NAFTA and go back to FDR type policies. Most of the bad paper that been generated over the last forty or fifty years will have to be written off and we will have to start over again. The US Government will have to generate one to two trillion dollars to start the US Economy by building infrastructure and developing new technologies. Now a new space program with a government loan of 2% and/or government write off system and/or built infrastructure, etc., then it might be doable. Otherwise it not going to happen.

Larry,

MarsDog · 2005-03-19 16:37:57

Now we can correct that problem, but the United States is going to have to change is policies which are bankrupting it

US has a wasteful empire. When the Mexicans try to help out by working the jobs that US citizens don't want, complaints arise. The US culture of exclusion has the jobs migrating, since immigration is discouraged. Even poorer US citizens take "medical vacations". Medical care is not affordable for a lot of US citizens.

The leaders of empires, historically, did not pay attention.
It was their God given right to be on top.

Martian Republic · 2005-03-19 18:25:45

Now we can correct that problem, but the United States is going to have to change is policies which are bankrupting it
US has a wasteful empire. When the Mexicans try to help out by working the jobs that US citizens don't want, complaints arise. The US culture of exclusion has the jobs migrating, since immigration is discouraged. Even poorer US citizens take "medical vacations". Medical care is not affordable for a lot of US citizens.
The leaders of empires, historically, did not pay attention.
It was their God given right to be on top.

We appear to be pretty much in agreement with each other on this issue.

We are going to have to get out of NAFTA and go back to an FDR policy of rebuilding American and go back to a Hill Burtan Act that guarantees all Americans access to hospitalization. We also need to go back to the Monroe Doctrine for those countries of Mexico and South America so they can build there counties up too. For the good of everybody and not to just enrich those thieving bandit like George Bush, Dick Cheney, Rockefellows, etc. and corporate looting like Haliburtan, Enron, etc.

Larry,

MarsDog · 2005-03-20 00:49:56

Watching an interview with the author of http://news.bookweb.org/features/3261.html]Confessions of an Economic Hit Man was revealing.

Opinion of a Middle East expert was that US is acting both as an arsonist and firefighter. Proclaiming democracy while supporting dictators.

==========================================

People outside USA are also human beings, and they deserve fairness and influence. One historian attributed the decline of Turkish and Roman empires to exclusion.

While Clinton and Monica were oblivious, Osama was planning.
Rome burning while Nero fiddled.
Marie Antoinette, before the French Revolution: Let them eat cake !

There is a pattern ?

Martian Republic · 2005-03-20 09:14:28

I agree with you MarsDog. We have to treat other people in other countries like people and not go into there countries like George Bush and attack by blowing away there city, because feel like it. So far in this war in Iraq we have killed over 200,000 thousand Iraqi’s. Which will go a long way to generating hatred for America from people of other countries. I have already seen the Confessions of an Economic Hit Man in other places and heard web cast on the subject from Marie Heller, Jeff Rense, Alex Jones Prison Planet, to the Larouche site. That is only a few that you can find the Confession of an Economic Hit Man at. It actually all over the web if you know where to look and are really interested in the truth. Yes, what that guy said that he did and that our government is still doing, needs to stop if we are going to have peace in this world. If the United States does not stop doing these things, it will destroy the United States like Nero Fiddling while Rome Burned. Nero Fiddling while Rome Burned, kind of reminds me of George Bush Fiddling around in that school in Florida while the trade center collapses.

Larry,

SpaceNut · 2005-03-21 06:26:53

There is also another very disturbing going on in Iraq with the insurgents killing Iraqi people as well and some of these insurgents are Iraqi. Basically there is a civil war over democracy that is in the back ground at this time. One can only hope that when the US does pull out that a much more stable nation is left than to which is currently in the news.

Martin_Tristar · 2005-03-21 06:52:09

MarsDog, and SpaceNut,

We need to look forward past the small earth conflicts like the iraq war, or the eu issues or the sa issues or world bank issues or even the UN issues. We need to bring a focus to the future of humanity, to start the journey, not the tour and return to earth, but the exploration and surveying for the future settlements of humanity in our solar system.

The conflicts on earth will sort themselves out over time and if not then we won't be going into space because not human race left to go into space.

Dook · 2005-03-21 08:30:36

Martian: The US economy is in trouble and on the verge of collapse? Hehe, I think your economy is the only one on the verge of collapse, the rest of us are rich and getting richer by the day!

Marsdog: Mexicans try to help out? When has Mexico ever helped the United States? Have they ever sent us any help in any of our disasters? Hurricanes? 9/11? NO! They don't even attempt to stop the constant, illegal, influx of their citizens coming into our country. These people who come across to work at jobs that we don't want to do but at the same time they have children here, making them citizens, then we must educate their children, and provide free medical care to them. Mexico could do a lot for us by simply taking care of it's own people rather than shipping them up north. The US approves 900,000 people a year through legal immigration, what we discourage is illegal immigration which I'm sure 90% of Americans support.

dicktice · 2005-03-21 09:26:37

Well, going back a ways: "We" got California del Norte, and Nuevo Mexico, and Texas, and Arizona, and (I don't know about Nevada) without paying a centavo for 'em. I don't see why "we" should kick. Got Maine from Canada, come to think of it, and without paying a cent, either. So what's the beef? Oh, and there's that, too....

SpaceNut · 2005-03-21 09:42:49

Well Maybe Mexico would want to be the 51 state. That would solve some of the problems. ???

Dook · 2005-03-21 11:18:11

That depends on your side, it would solve the problems for Mexicans since the roads would get fixed, their schools would improve, American businesses would move in, grants would be available, healthcare would definately improve.

But the cost of this enormous welfare project would be incredible and I doubt any of the 'Mexicans' would be loyal Americans. They don't come here because they are seeking freedom, they just want money.

I prefer the system we have.

Don't blame the US. If you want to blame someone first of all blame the people who have children in a system that cannot support them and then maybe blame the rich Mexican's who are not doing enough to help their own.

MarsDog · 2005-03-27 08:03:29

Well Maybe Mexico would want to be the 51 state. That would solve some of the problems.

That would upgrade the Mexicans to US voters. Mexicans are strategical to US security.
The last thing that a Mexican would want is an Al Queida terrorist dirty bombing his livelyhood or relatives.

====================================

Watching some history channel; it stands out that there has not been a World War for 60 years.
Lot of wars, dirty tricks, unfairness, people getting killed ...

To lead in space, US has to encourage immigration. It was a German immigrant, after WW II, who played a large part in US space efforts. Excluding the ambitious will enshure that space and technological leadership will not be maintained.

Dook · 2005-03-27 08:19:23

The last thing that a Mexican would want is an Al Queida terrorist dirty bombing his livelyhood or relatives.

Wrong! They will do anything for money.

SpaceNut · 2005-03-28 07:24:01

On the Mars for science can the Mars society Utah facility fill the gap of knowledge still needed. Reading an article about the desert research facility I had a thought.

Nearest thing to Mars

Ron Dyer has "been to Mars" without leaving planet Earth.
Dyer spent two weeks of vacation time in the Utah desert with five strangers at the Mars Desert Research Station, an environment meant to simulate what life would be like on the Red Planet.
"At least two or three times, I really felt like I was there," the Winthrop resident and state Department of Environmental Protection official said. "Going outside with the (space) suit on, looking at the stark landscape, you just say, 'Oh my God, this is amazing.' "

Here was the thought to create another location as a theme park vacation experience location as a money maker for funding a Mars societyeffort for space exploration. Real diehard space explorers would pay for such an experience.

Gennaro · 2005-03-28 21:28:00

If I were you I wouldn't take Bush's space initiative too seriously. It's most likely nothing but hoax and vapour like everything else the current administration stands for anyway, and will be quietly forgotten in a few years.

If you wanted a space program you don't need to print money either and thus fuel inflation (which I gather is what is meant by "FDR" policies). Slashing US defense expenditure in half would do nicely as there is simply no need for the present overkill capacity maintained by the US military. The threat of terrorism is imaginary, and by itself such a silly concept that it could only have been devised according to the notion that if you're going to lie, you should lie really big.

SpaceNut · 2005-04-15 10:14:04

[url=http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0414/p14s01-stss.html] Pulling the plug on science?

From Voyager spacecraft to atom smashers, America's long-term research faces an era of budget cuts.[/url]

While we are on the verge of starting anew for the purpose of space exploration there is a down side to having started on this path. It is the sacrifice of science for the purpose of freeing up cash with Nasa fixed budgets.
This is just one of thoses that appears on the chopping block and this is probably not the last.

To align itself with President Bush's vision for space exploration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration has notified mission managers of its intent to pull the plug on several projects, including the prized Voyager spacecraft. These 28-year-old craft are now approaching the solar system's edge - with enough power left to keep them phoning home until 2020 about regions of space that humans are unlikely to probe again for decades.

Manchu4 · 2005-04-15 11:56:31

Martian Republic's statement "That we have killed 200,000 Iraqi's in this war" Prove that statement!

Martian Republic · 2005-04-15 14:39:39

Martian Republic's statement "That we have killed 200,000 Iraqi's in this war" Prove that statement!

This is just a few site that talk about how many Iraqi have been killed and the on going war in Iraq. But there are other sites that go into more detail, if your interested in finding out. It been a while since I seen that article. But, I even found a web site that was trying to keep a running number of both solders and civilians killed or wounded on both side. But, with George Bush trying to keep the war secrete, they could only give a rough estimate of how many actually got killed or wounded. There also some web site, keeping a count as to how much this war in Iraq is costing America too. It up in the 500 billion range or more and counting.

http://www.rense.com/general63/cser.htm … 3/cser.htm

http://www.freearabvoice.org/Iraq/Repor … ort251.htm

http://www.uruknet.info/?p=m9406&l=i&si … ize=1&hd=0

Besides over 200,000 thousand Iraqi getting killed, there is also over 1,500 American solders getting killed and somewhere between 10,000 to 20,000 injured solders like with arms or legs blown off or possibly mentally deranged.

Larry,

GCNRevenger · 2005-04-15 19:58:45

Martian Republic's statement "That we have killed 200,000 Iraqi's in this war" Prove that statement!
This is just a few site that talk about how many Iraqi have been killed and the on going war in Iraq. But there are other sites that go into more detail, if your interested in finding out. It been a while since I seen that article. But, I even found a web site that was trying to keep a running number of both solders and civilians killed or wounded on both side. But, with George Bush trying to keep the war secrete, they could only give a rough estimate of how many actually got killed or wounded. There also some web site, keeping a count as to how much this war in Iraq is costing America too. It up in the 500 billion range or more and counting.
http://www.rense.com/general63/cser.htm … 3/cser.htm
http://www.freearabvoice.org/Iraq/Repor … ort251.htm
http://www.uruknet.info/?p=m9406&l=i&si … ize=1&hd=0

Besides over 200,000 thousand Iraqi getting killed, there is also over 1,500 American solders getting killed and somewhere between 10,000 to 20,000 injured solders like with arms or legs blown off or possibly mentally deranged.
Larry,

Did you know that to make 200,000 casulties, several hundred Iraqis would need to be killed by violence every single day, and the streets would literally be painted with blood? Why don't we hear or see any of such a perpetual massacre? The 100,000 figure originally was cooked up by a hypra-leftist author in a British journal called The Lancet, which has been absolutely blown full of holes BTW, which the author stipulated it be released very close to the 2004 US election. Gee, I wonder why?

These kinds of figures are extreme in the absurd... and the "BUSH CONTROLS THE MEDIA!!!" is BS for any sane level-headed thinking person. I mean come now, what of all the hit pieces?

Martin_Tristar · 2005-04-15 20:23:35

I love the "crap" that goes on about the motives of the Americans and in particular the President. Every leader has the ups and downs within there life as a leader but the term "LEADER" is where they make a decision to lead a group of people somewhere, and the group picked that person to lead. In a way the world picked the Americans to lead the world, even tho they didn't say anything.

If we don't like there vision for the future then be strong enough and get a stronger leader that is respected throughout the world and then elect them to lead.

If not, then simply stop your "crap" and move on and get positive and work on issues you can effect and change - because one man did change the future - bill gates by being a catalyst - find the next one and the world will change again.

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#1 2005-03-18 10:59:34

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#2 2005-03-18 11:25:06

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#3 2005-03-18 18:58:55

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#4 2005-03-19 01:18:53

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#5 2005-03-19 07:36:27

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#6 2005-03-19 09:57:39

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#7 2005-03-19 16:37:57

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#8 2005-03-19 18:25:45

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#9 2005-03-20 00:49:56

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#10 2005-03-20 09:14:28

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#11 2005-03-21 06:26:53

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#12 2005-03-21 06:52:09

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#13 2005-03-21 08:30:36

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#14 2005-03-21 09:26:37

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#15 2005-03-21 09:42:49

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#16 2005-03-21 11:18:11

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#17 2005-03-27 08:03:29

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#18 2005-03-27 08:19:23

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#19 2005-03-28 07:24:01

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#20 2005-03-28 21:28:00

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#21 2005-04-15 10:14:04

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#22 2005-04-15 11:56:31

Re: Selling out Mars and Science?

#23 2005-04-15 14:39:39

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#24 2005-04-15 19:58:45

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#25 2005-04-15 20:23:35

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