2004 MN4

Trebuchet · 2005-04-18 18:39:19

Can we really do anything before it is to late?

Yeah, hope it misses, or, barring that, hit someplace no one will miss, like the Iranian nuclear program.

SpaceNut · 2005-05-25 10:32:25

Astronaut Wants Asteroid Mission

Stranger than fiction, well not really..

Astronaut Wants Asteroid Mission
A former Apollo astronaut is calling on Congress to authorize a space mission to monitor an asteroid that has a narrow chance of hitting Earth in 2035 or 2036.

Astronaut Russell Schweickart, who piloted the lunar module during the 1969 Apollo 9 mission, unveiled his proposal Friday at the International Space Development Conference in Arlington, Virginia.
The proposal calls for a $300 million mission to land a transponder on the asteroid, a 1,050-foot-wide body known as 2004 MN4. Signals from the transponder would be used to pinpoint the asteroid's trajectory and determine whether it will strike Earth or simply zoom past.

Then the what If and its supposed impact of what might be?

Schweickart himself believes that an impact is unlikely. However, in his report, he provides a rough estimate of the potential damages, noting that a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean could create a tsunami twice the size of the recent Indian Ocean tsunami.
Other experts have estimated that an impact of an asteroid the size of 2004 MN4 would release 870 megatons of energy, or dozens of times greater than an extremely violent volcano.

I am all for science but lets do more than just tag it for tracking purposes.

Why not send down a Mars style rover to get more data on there existence, age, chemical make up and whatever else could be learned in addition to the tracking.

SpaceNut · 2005-05-25 10:44:31

Additional article and lots of data on 2004 MN4 asteroid.
A Call to (Considered) Action
B612.fig.5.jpg
Map showing the approximate path of risk if asteroid 2004MN4 were to impact Earth in April 2036.

BWhite · 2005-05-25 11:28:25

SpaceNut, I attended a presentation by these people at ISDC. So many great things packed into three days!

"Minnesota 4" as they have nick-named 2004MN4 - - will NOT hit the Earth in 2028, however there is a tiny "keyhole" and if MN4 passes through that keyhole in 2028 it WILL hit the Earth in 2034.

That keyhole is less than 1 kilometer long, IIRC.

In 2028, Minnesota 4 will pass within geo-sync satellite altitude and therefore might demolish a multi-billion dollar com-sat.

clark · 2005-05-25 11:35:50

2034?

Sounds about right on time for our Martian Explorer's to watch home get vaporized....

Palomar · 2005-05-25 11:43:10

*Overall, I agree with Mad Grad Student's post of December 26, 2004.

There is one astronomy web site which brings this subject up surprisingly frequently. I don't know...maybe it was all those End Times doomsday scenarios in my childhood church which makes me think there's a bit of "much ado" going on.

Why not send down a Mars style rover to get more data on there existence, age, chemical make up and whatever else could be learned in addition to the tracking.

And how much more money would that cost? ??? We've plenty of data on the makeup and properties of asteroids. Perhaps some new/additional data would be gleaned, but enough to justify such a mission?

NASA's budget only stretches so far.

I'd rather some money be kept back to blast the damned thing, if it came down to it. MADMEN mission or something similar.

Meanwhile, I'm not biting my fingernails. Let the trumpets sound and the clouds in the east roll back... :laugh:

--Cindy

BWhite · 2005-05-25 11:45:16

2034?
Sounds about right on time for our Martian Explorer's to watch home get vaporized....

Not large enough. :laugh:

California gets a 50 foot tidal wave and thats it.

Trillions in damage but no species ending event.

clark · 2005-05-25 11:47:59

Tidal waves? Why not, California would then have every natural disaster. :laugh:

Of course land impact might cool things down a bit.

BWhite · 2005-05-25 11:56:13

*Overall, I agree with Mad Grad Student's post of December 26, 2004.
There is one astronomy web site which brings this subject up surprisingly frequently. I don't know...maybe it was all those End Times doomsday scenarios in my childhood church which makes me think there's a bit of "much ado" going on.
Why not send down a Mars style rover to get more data on there existence, age, chemical make up and whatever else could be learned in addition to the tracking.
And how much more money would that cost? ??? We've plenty of data on the makeup and properties of asteroids. Perhaps some new/additional data would be gleaned, but enough to justify such a mission?
NASA's budget only stretches so far.
I'd rather some money be kept back to blast the damned thing, if it came down to it. MADMEN mission or something similar.
Meanwhile, I'm not biting my fingernails. Let the trumpets sound and the clouds in the east roll back... :laugh:
--Cindy

Buzz Aldrin wants us to fund a "nudge" mission - - just move it a little to prove we can, if need be.

Ever read "Death in Tehran?"

Dropping a transponder on it isn't a bad idea either.

clark · 2005-05-25 12:00:38

Just don't nudge his elevator... :laugh:

SpaceNut · 2005-05-25 12:09:54

Well lets assume we can use an atlas or a delta rocket with going rates of purchase. If the funding for the project is only 300 to 400 million depending on and then depending on which rocket is picked. The probe and more could be built for as little as 100 or as much as 200 million.

Palomar · 2005-05-25 12:19:34

*There have been many statements put out by scientists, published on reputable web sites and in magazines, that this asteroid poses no danger to Earth and will miss us.

But I suppose the issue must be continually hyped.

--Cindy

BWhite · 2005-05-25 12:28:02

*There have been many statements put out by scientists, published on reputable web sites and in magazines, that this asteroid poses no danger to Earth and will miss us.
But I suppose the issue must be continually hyped.
--Cindy

Not true.

2028 is safe (except maybe some geo-sync sats - but the inclination may make those safe as well).

There remains a finite chance in 2034. Very very slim but finite.

By the way, in 2028, Earth's gravity will cause Minnesota 4 to make a 30 - 35 degree right turn. Now that is COOL!

= = =

Heh! Wonder if anyone figured out whether MN04 might hit the moon.

Add: I sense a story, there. Earth is safe but just as we all breathe a sigh of relief, the Moon gets whacked. Perturbs its orbit, and . . .

Edited By BWhite on 1117045785

clark · 2005-05-25 12:32:22

Earth is safe but just as we all breathe a sigh of relief, the Moon gets whacked. Perturbs its orbit, and . . .

The Vision for Space Exploration becomes the Vision for Moon Chase.

Palomar · 2005-05-25 12:40:05

*There have been many statements put out by scientists, published on reputable web sites and in magazines, that this asteroid poses no danger to Earth and will miss us.
But I suppose the issue must be continually hyped.
--Cindy
Not true.

*Well then apparently some scientists themselves are confused, or they need to quit with the "no, it will not" and "yes, it probably will" statements.

Guess the politicians are rubbing off on them. :hm:

Ah well, enough time was spent worrying about cosmic cataclysms in childhood (thanks mom, dad). Ain't gonna do it again.

Buzz Aldrin's proposal sounds reasonable.

--Cindy

P.S.: I've seen scientists' assertions that there is -no- threat on web sites which previously touted the issue. Now I suppose we'll see a resurgence of threat warnings.

Mad Grad, we better put on our hard-hats. :laugh:

BWhite · 2005-05-25 12:53:41

http://www.b612foundation.org/]B612 project - - was this the same link as above?

http://es.ucsc.edu/~ward/2004MN4(a).mov]California gest washed down.

Edited By BWhite on 1117047335

SpaceNut · 2005-05-25 13:10:19

That link was referenced by the spaceref article..

Nice movie on the wave height propagation along the coast after a splash down...

How far inland would such a wave travel?

clark · 2005-05-25 13:12:16

That would be so sweet near Rat End or PV.

Duuuuude!

SpaceNut · 2005-06-01 06:33:15

Congressman Backs Asteroid Agency

The creation of a government agency to protect the Earth from a catastrophic asteroid strike is being endorsed by a senior member of the U.S. House Science Committee.

Gee I wonder how well funded this would be?

What type of science goals should be achieved?

What sort of technologies should be explored?

Could this be what Nasa is all about?

C M Edwards · 2005-06-04 14:53:52

The creation of a government agency to protect the Earth from a catastrophic asteroid strike is being endorsed by a senior member of the U.S. House Science Committee.

Could this be what Nasa is all about?

"For thirty years thay've been questioning the need for NASA. Today we've got to give them an answer!"

Armageddon! Wow, I loved Billy Bob Thornton in that movie!

Or perhaps we could have astronomers "racing down the mountain to warn the world", like that scene in Deep Impact. Much more entertaining than the work of Brian Marsden and other real live astronomers working on this problem... Drama would definitely help the budget.

SpaceNut · 2005-08-17 10:15:16

Ok this thread seems to contain the most about NEO's.

Asteroid's Near-Miss May Be Home Run For Scientists

scientists will be able to observe how the Earth's gravity will disrupt a massive asteroid's spin.
Scientists predict a near-miss when Asteroid 99942 Apophis passes Earth in 2029. An asteroid flies this close to the planet only once every 1,300 years. The chance to study it will help scientists deal with the object should it threaten collision with Earth. Apophis is one of more than 600 known potentially hazardous asteroids and one of several that scientists hope to study more closely.

Of course with these new measurements and if it is changed in any way from its current orbit by the Earths gravity. Then we may have some need for concern.

SpaceNut · 2005-08-17 10:35:19

Then again this article sort goes along with the theme. Top 10 Ways to Destroy Earth

Current Earth-destruction Status
Number of times the Earth has been destroyed: 0
Number of plans currently in progress with the final aim of bringing about the Earth's destruction: 0
Number of scientific experiments currently underway with the potential to bring about the Earth's destruction: 0
Minimum amount of time until the Earth is destroyed by natural means (discounting total existence failure): 25 years
Minimum amount of time until the Earth is destroyed by artificial means: 50 years

SpaceNut · 2005-10-31 06:47:32

[url=http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=18138]B612 Foundation Statement Regarding NASA's Analysis of Asteroid 99942 Apophis Impact Potential
(formerly 2004MN4).[/url]

Lots of possible missions being planned to tag and monitor its orbit and more...

SpaceNut · 2005-10-31 07:30:43

Another comprehensive article:
[url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9871982/]Timetable set for dealing with asteroid threat
Letter suggests probe in 2019 and deflector by 2028 ... if needed[/url]

051030_asteroid_hmed8p.h2.jpg

Looking at the image of the orbit of this NEO, it would appear that venus has a very good chance of being struck as well. I kind of also wonder if a close pass to venus could as well alter its orbit?

noosfractal · 2005-11-01 04:08:17

Looking at the image of the orbit of this NEO, it would appear that venus has a very good chance of being struck as well. I kind of also wonder if a close pass to venus could as well alter its orbit?

Nasa has a nice java applet where you can see the relative positions of the objects in their orbits ...

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/db?name=99942

Apophis does get close to Venus in April 2016 - around 0.080 AU, which is about 30 times the distance from the Earth to the Moon (30 luna distances). Otherwise it is at least twice that, and usually much more.

However, after Apophis encounters Earth in April 2029 (at under a tenth of a luna distance), it is very likely that its orbit will change so that it doesn't approach Venus closely again. The Nasa applet doesn't show the change - probably because, depending on how the encounter goes, a range of new orbits is possible.
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#76 2005-04-18 18:39:19

Re: 2004 MN4

#77 2005-05-25 10:32:25

Re: 2004 MN4

#78 2005-05-25 10:44:31

Re: 2004 MN4

#79 2005-05-25 11:28:25

Re: 2004 MN4

#80 2005-05-25 11:35:50

Re: 2004 MN4

#81 2005-05-25 11:43:10

Re: 2004 MN4

#82 2005-05-25 11:45:16

Re: 2004 MN4

#83 2005-05-25 11:47:59

Re: 2004 MN4

#84 2005-05-25 11:56:13

Re: 2004 MN4

#85 2005-05-25 12:00:38

Re: 2004 MN4

#86 2005-05-25 12:09:54

Re: 2004 MN4

#87 2005-05-25 12:19:34

Re: 2004 MN4

#88 2005-05-25 12:28:02

Re: 2004 MN4

#89 2005-05-25 12:32:22

Re: 2004 MN4

#90 2005-05-25 12:40:05

Re: 2004 MN4

#91 2005-05-25 12:53:41

Re: 2004 MN4

#92 2005-05-25 13:10:19

Re: 2004 MN4

#93 2005-05-25 13:12:16

Re: 2004 MN4

#94 2005-06-01 06:33:15

Re: 2004 MN4

#95 2005-06-04 14:53:52

Re: 2004 MN4

#96 2005-08-17 10:15:16

Re: 2004 MN4

#97 2005-08-17 10:35:19

Re: 2004 MN4

#98 2005-10-31 06:47:32

Re: 2004 MN4

#99 2005-10-31 07:30:43

Re: 2004 MN4

#100 2005-11-01 04:08:17

Re: 2004 MN4

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